Intentions and Capabilities

It would be an immense relief if policymakers demonstrated a cognizance of the distinction between the intentions and capabilities of belligerent states. Instead, the evolving military capabilities of these states are treated as evidence of a qualitatively more aggressive force posture, and without consideration of the more dominating imperative of self-preservation. There are systemic conditions that make a bellicose course more palatable, but in a context of hegemonic military supremacy, globalization, and the consequential reduction in the expected gains from interstate war, belligerent states have little incentive to risk their position of power through extreme acts of brinkmanship and war. Of course, there is always a chance that imperfect information will lead to a failure of rational modes of behavior, but it's rare that entire systems of self-interested individuals fail to protect against grave individual errors that threaten systemic failure.