1539 replies to this topic

[adamh]

Thus there may be something about the Wuhan environment which makes this new coronavirus more virulent and more lethal.

 

One factor for sure is that since wuhan seems to be the epicenter of the outbreak, the virus has had more time to work. This also suggests that the true rate is higher that we were hoping. If they admit 3.4% then the true rate is going to be much higher perhaps 10% or more

 

Likewise with the numbers outside china. Those are more likely to be true or at least not as likely to be deliberately falsified. Since corona has not had as much time to do its thing, we will see the numbers rise and the percentage of death rise as well. The mortality rate will lag behind the true numbers for a variety of reasons. Right now, since it spreads so fast and takes a few weeks at least to kill, there will be many more new cases than month+ old cases pushing down the apparent mortality rate.

 

People ask why is china reacting so extremely some say "hysterically" to the outbreak? They did not go to such lengths when it was sars or other deadly diseases. Consider that they have had more experience with corona than anyplace else since it started there. They see first hand what it does and they are very afraid, therefore extreme measures even if they risk a revolt and crash the economy. 

 

The bringing in of 40 large industrial incinerators tells us more than the carefully managed figures they release. Crematoriums can't keep up but bodies can't be allowed to lie in the street, videos of crows eating them have been circulated. They are in a desperate situation as the rest of the world will probably be soon as well.

 

If they were forced to admit the outbreak of serious disease in dec '19, odds are that it was raging for months before that, probably as far back as sept. Early deaths were attributed to normal disease and when it was finally seen as something new and deadly, the first reaction was to cover it up. By late dec they had to take extreme measures and could no longer conceal it. Other countries now are where china was probably in october with a few cases and a few deaths. 

 

Hysteria will do harm but quarantines are needed. But since its not politically correct to bar all visitors to a country unless the ruler is a dictator, it will spread and spread. What we are hearing about in china will happen everywhere unless some major factor prevents it. Its no longer just those who visited china, the virus has escaped and can't be contained only perhaps slowed down.

 

The economic fallout will be severe. China is going down the tubes at the moment and no one wants to go there or do business there. What will the post corona world look like? I plan to make my will and to get medical treatment while its still available

 

[Hip]

If they admit 3.4% then the true rate is going to be much higher perhaps 10% or more.
 
Likewise with the numbers outside china. Those are more likely to be true or at least not as likely to be deliberately falsified. Since corona has not had as much time to do its thing, we will see the numbers rise and the percentage of death rise as well. The mortality rate will lag behind the true numbers for a variety of reasons. Right now, since it spreads so fast and takes a few weeks at least to kill, there will be many more new cases than month+ old cases pushing down the apparent mortality rate.[/size]
 
People ask why is china reacting so extremely some say "hysterically" to the outbreak? They did not go to such lengths when it was sars or other deadly diseases. Consider that they have had more experience with corona than anyplace else since it started there. They see first hand what it does and they are very afraid, therefore extreme measures even if they risk a revolt and crash the economy. 
 
The bringing in of 40 large industrial incinerators tells us more than the carefully managed figures they release. 

 
 
Which reliable source has said that the figures from China are carefully managed? Where is this idea that China is manipulating the figures coming from?

 

The WHO has praised China for being open and transparent with this outbreak, and for sharing their data with the rest of the world. Sure, in the 2003 SARS coronavirus outbreak China initially hid this, but they have learnt since then.

 

The fact that the death rate in Chinese cities other than Wuhan closely matches the death rate found in other countries only goes to show that China is providing reliable figures. 

 

The only unreliable and dubious players in this outbreak are the Western conspiracy theory merchants, who as always have got a few screws loose.

 

 

[Dorian Grey]

This guy is giving great daily updates: 

 

https://www.youtube....i48RRQTD4Jhxu8w

 

In this one here: 

 

he points out the current CDC testing protocol in the USA is to test ONLY those who've recently traveled to China, or have been in contact with someone KNOWN to have the corona virus.  The limited testing is currently only occurring in 4 cities.  

 

My God, they're not actively looking for the disease because they are afraid of what they might find.  This is going to result in transmission to a lot of healthcare workers who won't even know what they are dealing with till it's too late.  

 

[Hebbeh]

https://nypost.com/2...ked-from-a-lab/

 

At an emergency meeting in Beijing held last Friday, Chinese leader Xi Jinping spoke about the need to contain the coronavirus and set up a system to prevent similar epidemics in the future  A national system to control biosecurity risks must be put in place “to protect the people’s health,” Xi said, because lab safety is a “national security” issue.  Xi didn’t actually admit that the coronavirus now devastating large swathes of China had escaped from one of the country’s bioresearch labs. But the very next day, evidence emerged suggesting that this is exactly what happened, as the Chinese Ministry of Science and Technology released a new directive entitled: “Instructions on strengthening biosecurity management in microbiology labs that handle advanced viruses like the novel coronavirus.”  Read that again. It sure sounds like China has a problem keeping dangerous pathogens in test tubes where they belong, doesn’t it? And just how many “microbiology labs” are there in China that handle “advanced viruses like the novel coronavirus”?  It turns out that in all of China there is only one. And this one is located in the Chinese city of Wuhan that just happens to be . . . the epicenter of the epidemic.  That’s right. China’s only Level 4 microbiology lab that is equipped to handle deadly coronaviruses, called the National Biosafety Laboratory, is part of the Wuhan Institute of Virology.  What’s more, the People’s Liberation Army’s top expert in biological warfare, a Maj. Gen. Chen Wei, was dispatched to Wuhan at the end of January to help with the effort to contain the outbreak.... And then there is this little-known fact: Some Chinese researchers are in the habit of selling their laboratory animals to street vendors after they have finished experimenting on them.  Instead of properly disposing of infected animals by cremation, as the law requires, they sell them on the side to make a little extra cash. Or, in some cases, a lot of extra cash. One Beijing researcher, now in jail, made a million dollars selling his monkeys and rats on the live animal market, where they eventually wound up in someone’s stomach..... China has unleashed a plague on its own people. It’s too early to say how many in China and other countries will ultimately die for the failures of their country’s state-run microbiology labs, but the human cost will be high.  But not to worry. Xi has assured us that he is controlling biosecurity risks “to protect the people’s health.” PLA bioweapons experts are in charge......

 

 

[Mind]

I guess the Wuhan coronavirus will only cause a mere 10 or 20 million deaths if it is not contained, and as every obedient capitalist knows, profits are more important than human lives. So yeah, let's forget about trying to save these millions, and focus instead on ensuring the economy remains unaffected.

 

I didn't intend to come off as callous or indifferent.

 

I am weighing a likely outcome.

 

1. The virus is not contained and it will keep spreading. No evidence to the contrary so far.

2. Because of quarantine actions, economic supply chains will collapse, resulting in shortages of critical medical and health supplies.

3. Because of hysteria and the lack of critical supplies, hundreds of millions will die, instead of 10 or 20 million, and the damage to society will last for years.

 

What I am saying is that we should focus our efforts and energy on reducing the deaths among vulnerable populations (reducing the "10 to 20 million deaths, by a significant percentage, maybe an order of magnitude), instead of just shutting down the world and making everyone scared/irrational.

 

Back to earlier in the thread.

 

1.The corona family of viruses have been around a long time - identified 60 years ago.

2. The vast majority of people who are vulnerable to this viral illness are the same populations who are vulnerable to flu-like viruses in general.

3. Most people suffer very mild symptoms, including in the case of the SARS outbreak.

 

Like I mentioned earlier in the thread, I am amazed the all we have to available to counter viral outbreaks are archaic methods of quarantine, wear masks, wash your hands all day long, etc... Even vaccination (fairly successful in the 20th century) is old, kind-of low tech and reactionary (vaccines come after the outbreak). More funding needs to go toward anti-viral medications or methods counter viral effects within the body or enhancing the bodies natural ability to quell viral attacks.

[adamh]

1. The virus is not contained and it will keep spreading. No evidence to the contrary so far.

2. Because of quarantine actions, economic supply chains will collapse, resulting in shortages of critical medical and health supplies.

3. Because of hysteria and the lack of critical supplies, hundreds of millions will die, instead of 10 or 20 million, and the damage to society will last for years.

 

Agreed

 

"1.The corona family of viruses have been around a long time - identified 60 years ago"

 

Agreed, however this virus has been modified, reportedly with a portion of the aids virus.

 

Most people suffer very mild symptoms, including in the case of the SARS outbreak

 

This is not the same as sars or others as has been already established so we don't really know that. It is infectious for a longer period without symptoms and a high percentage die at least those without proper treatment.

 

As far as not shutting everything down, what other way can we stop it? Doctors, including high ranking doctors in china have come down with it along with many other health care professionals. They all had masks, some had bio suits, they still got it and many died including doctors. Testing someone for it means being possibly exposed to it.

 

If you go to work and one person in there has it without knowing, they can infect the whole office building, factory or whatnot. Who wants to go to a concert knowing the virus is raging? Going shopping is taking a risk, meeting anyone is a risk.

 

There is no way to stop panic, people will panic and we have to plan for it. If police can no longer function, there will be looting and violence. If medical care is no longer available we will have bodies lying in the streets and flocks of vultures coming in as well much like in china. 

 

We will have starvation, its already happening in china, will happen elsewhere too. Stock up on non perishables, perhaps beans, rice, other things. Will water and electricity keep working? Hopefully yes. Don't expect dentists to be open or any medical services. To think the horrors in china as evidenced by videos smuggled out will not happen in our countries is wishful thinking. Hope for the best but be prepared for the worst.

[Blu]

The Chronic Post-SARS Syndrome is a well documented entity similar to CFS/FM. Other sequelae to SARS include pulmunary fibrosis, osteoporosis, osteonecrosis. There are hypothesis that these severe effects are immuno-mediated.

How much did SARS really spread? How many autoimmune disorders could be a consequence of the 2003 epidemics? Why China seems so schizoid, severely affecting its own economy when, as we are told again and again, the common flu is sooo much worse than SARS-CoV-2?

Maybe the mortality rate is not the real problem here.

 

 

[ymc]

 

 

Like I mentioned earlier in the thread, I am amazed the all we have to available to counter viral outbreaks are archaic methods of quarantine, wear masks, wash your hands all day long, etc... Even vaccination (fairly successful in the 20th century) is old, kind-of low tech and reactionary (vaccines come after the outbreak). More funding needs to go toward anti-viral medications or methods counter viral effects within the body or enhancing the bodies natural ability to quell viral attacks.

 

Well, quarantine + mask + hand washing was the approach that worked well for SARS and MERS. 

 

Due to the higher transmissibility of coronavirus, they probably won't work as well but should at least slow it down.

 

As to more high tech approach like antiviral drug or vaccine, it is not about money, it is about time. By the time you manage to have something work, it can be one or two years later.

 

I too am against the drastic action of Chinese government to quarantine the entire cities. I think the limited approach that most government is adopting should contain the outbreak to some extent can buy time for the more high tech approach.

 

The worst case scenario for coronavirus is that it will be a pandemic in a year or two. Then hopefully by the time, there are some antiviral drugs and/or vaccines that work that can turn back the tide and make it a disease that is comparable to flu.

 

As to more high tech approach like antiviral drug or vaccine, it is not about money, it is about time. By the time you manage to have something work 

[Hip]

we are told again and again, the common flu is sooo much worse than SARS-CoV-2?

 

Whoever told you that is wrong.

 

Death rate for this season's flu is about 0.05%, while the death rate is about 0.7% for the Wuhan coronavirus outside of China, and 2% inside China. Ref: 1

 

You don't have to be a brilliant mathematician to work out that 0.7% is a lot larger than 0.05%.

 

[Hip]

What I am saying is that we should focus our efforts and energy on reducing the deaths among vulnerable populations (reducing the "10 to 20 million deaths, by a significant percentage, maybe an order of magnitude), instead of just shutting down the world and making everyone scared/irrational.

 

Fear often comes from not understanding what you are dealing with. If the populace are scarred, it's perhaps because they don't have a sufficient grasp of science to understand viral epidemics. Unfortunately not much can be done about that, except of course learning a bit about virology; but most people I expect are too lazy.

 

The strategy employed by governments in dealing with this virus is a rational one: the idea is to slow down the spread (or if possible, eradicate the virus entirely). This buys time to develop a vaccine, and several companies are rushing to produce a vaccine. 

 

Antivirals will not be possible to create, as it takes decades to develop new antivirals. Existing antiviral drugs are being tried, to see if they have any effect against the Wuhan coronavirus, but it's not likely they will. Unlike antibiotics, antiviral are very virus-specific, and so they will work for one virus, but not another. And viruses are not actually alive, which makes it hard to kill them.

 

Slowing down the epidemic also means that hospitals will not be so overloaded with cases. People with this virus often need supplemental oxygen in hospital, because the virus ravages the lungs. If everyone were to be infected all at once, then the hospitals would not be able to cope. But by slowing down the spread, you stagger the infections in the populace, which means hospitals will not get as overloaded, and will thus be in a better position to offer care.

Edited by Hip, 24 February 2020 - 03:52 AM.

[xEva]

the cat is out of the bag.

past week thousands of tourists flooded Italy for Venice carnival and fashion week in Milan. This weekend most flew back home. NY, London, Paris, Berlin, Moscow, LA..

 

[adamh]

Yes, the virus is out of the bag and will spread rapidly no doubt. Here is an interesting article, it seems that perhaps 50 have died from CV already in iran. There is the usual gap between official and unofficial numbers. 

 

https://www.zerohedg...us-outbreak-qom

 

A staggering 50 people have died in the Iranian city of Qom from the new coronavirus this month, a lawmaker was quoted as saying on Monday, even as the Health Ministry insisted only 12 deaths have been recorded to date in the country.

 

The ministry of health only counts cases that have been officially diagnosed while the lawmaker is saying 50 with the symptoms have died. This is likely to be closer to the true figure. Iran only reported some 47 confirmed cases yesterday so it seems likely the plague has spread through iran and that they have thousands of cases, most of which are undiagnosed and probably showing no symptoms yet.

 

The world is facing a man made bioweapon, very likely created by china. The way it escaped from the level 4 lab in wuhan was probably from the chinese habit of selling used lab animals to augment meager salaries. They originally claimed it came from the food market where many exotic animals are for sale for eating. So that may be true but it did not originate from there but rather from the lab. Its against the law to sell those animals but cheating is widespread.

 

The official numbers in iran were 47 cases and 12 deaths. Even if we accept those numbers as accurate, and do not use the 50 deaths claimed by an insider, that is over 25% death rate, a very scary figure indeed. It is 10 times the death rate reported by china, who again have funny methods of counting and do not count any of those who were undiagnosed but simply died.

 

The chinese economy is taking a major hit. Reports are that many small and medium sized businesses are facing a cash crunch and may have to close soon. Steel consumption, electricity use, and factory production have plunged. Along with the health problems comes the economic fallout. Even if this was confined to china, their implosion will drag down the rest of the world along with it. And the rest of the world will be dealing with an economic crunch soon as well.

 

https://www.reuters....i-idUKKCN20H0DQ

 

China braces for inevitable big hit to economy from virus, says Xi

[Blu]

Whoever told you that is wrong.

 

Death rate for this season's flu is about 0.05%, while the death rate is about 0.7% for the Wuhan coronavirus outside of China, and 2% inside China. Ref: 1

 

You don't have to be a brilliant mathematician to work out that 0.7% is a lot larger than 0.05%.

 

Yes man. It's called sarcasm.

 

According to the data on worldometers.info, outside China the death rate for overall infections is 1.5%; but the ratio of deaths/(deaths+recovereds) outside China is 13.3%. That is: among all the closed cases, there is 13.3% death rate; the other cases are still open.

Factoring also China, these rates are 3.3% and 9.4%.
 

[ymc]

Since even the non-China data has been out for around a month, deaths/(deaths+recoveries) should be getting closer to the true mortality rate.

Let's see how it goes now.

 

Hubei: 2563/(2563+18888) = 11.95%

mainland China outside Hubei: 100/(100+8531) = 1.16%

Rest of the World: 42/(42+264) = 13.72%

 

I will try to update these three numbers from time to time. They should get closer and closer to the true mortality rate as time goes by.

 

The true mortality rate is probably between 1.16% and 13.72%. So this remains a much more serious infectious disease than flu. 

 

[Kalliste]

Claims that the Death rate on the quarantined ship are in lower 0.4% and those were all old people in tight quarters.

 

Now this thing is getting an economic Life of its own like Bitcoin did, tons of people stand to loose or gain on stocks depending on panic or calm.

[Mind]

WHO situation report from yesterday indicates 23 deaths and 2069 cases. So the mortality rate has increased to 1.1%.

 

Has anyone compiled the case history of fatalities? So far outside of China, it seems the elderly are hardest hit - as is the case with seasonal flu.

 

One death in Italy was an elderly person with cancer (if memory serves correct). One death in Japan was a woman 80+. The cruise ship fatalities were elderly as well, as far as I have heard.

Edited by Mind, 25 February 2020 - 05:16 PM.

[Mind]

Japan has taken an approach which I have advocated. We will see if it works, as compared to extreme quarantine measures.

 

 

Japan has confirmed at least 160 cases of coronavirus, aside from more than 700 people who caught covid-19 on board the Diamond Princess cruise ship. The government maintains there are small “clusters” of infections but not a large-scale epidemic.

“We shouldn’t have illusions,” said Shigeru Omi, a senior government adviser. “We can’t stop this, but we can try to reduce the speed of expansion and reduce mortality.”

Hospital space will be reserved for patients with serious symptoms, while people with colds and fevers are urged to rest at home rather than seek medical care, especially in regions with many cases. Only if the fever persists for four days — or two days for the elderly, people with chronic diseases or pregnant women — should they contact local health care centers.

 

[Mind]

Italy confirms the latest 3 deaths were all over 80. https://www.standard...t-a4370596.html

[adamh]

Iran's top health official charged with stopping the spread of CV has come down with the disease shortly after a news conference in which he denied the situation was out of control and denied the 50 deaths previously reported. He was seen sweating and coughing during the press conference. 

 

https://www.timesofi...uthorities-say/

 

Here is an interesting bit of news from that article

 

"Iran confirmed three more deaths and 34 new infections on Tuesday, taking the country’s overall death toll to 15 and infection tally to 95."

 

This makes the iranian death toll at 15/95 or almost 16%. These are the official figures, not the widely claimed 50 deaths reported a few days ago which would indicate a much higher death rate. Also, out of the 95 confirmed cases, 34 are new and should not be counted in the death ratio so 15/61 gives you 25% if we don't add in the newly diagnosed cases. This is the same % as the previously stated 12 deaths from 47 cases a few days ago.

 

Some 35 infected patients were flown into usa despite orders from the president not to bring them in. There were about 15 other confirmed cases in the country virtually guaranteeing that it will spread here. Along with those who came from other countries and have no symptoms yet, its almost sure there will be some of them.

 

The elderly seem to be among the first to fail but it is no respecter of age, any age can get it. The least hit group seems to be 18 to 30, which would be those in greatest health on average.

[xEva]

An interesting article in Business Insider There's a good chance the Wuhan coronavirus will never disappear, experts say.  The article is a few days old, before it became obvious that the virus cannot be contained. In this case, the projection is that it will become endemic in human population and join 4 other coronaviruses which seasonally cause common cold. Because the mutation rate in coronaviruses is low, it is considered unlikely that the virulence of COVID-19 will change significantly in the future (but interesting that for children it is like a cold). 

 

This means that there is no way avoiding it. Just get it over with and hope for the best, fingers crossed. Or wait for the vaccine, which, Fauci said today, will not be available for a year and a half, at best.

 

Good luck to all of us

Edited by xEva, 26 February 2020 - 01:08 AM.

[Kalliste]

An interesting article in Business Insider There's a good chance the Wuhan coronavirus will never disappear, experts say.  The article is a few days old, before it became obvious that the virus cannot be contained. In this case, the projection is that it will become endemic in human population and join 4 other coronaviruses which seasonally cause common cold. Because the mutation rate in coronaviruses is low, it is considered unlikely that the virulence of COVID-19 will change significantly in the future (but interesting that for children it is like a cold). 

 

This means that there is no way avoiding it. Just get it over with and hope for the best, fingers crossed. Or wait for the vaccine, which, Fauci said today, will not be available for a year and a half, at best.

 

Good luck to all of us

 

No that sounds wrong. There are cases where a single family held numerous different mutations of the virus when tested. (unless that was fake news but it seemed legit)

 

If it is a wild mutator that is both good and bad, bad if it turns like spanish flu did and suddenly kills a 10-20%. Good if it could mutate into some less virulent form. 

 

What worries me is that the entire virus is now uploaded on the internet, many are synthetically designing it. Some bad people must have realized the potential here. 

 

 

 

Iran's top health official charged with stopping the spread of CV has come down with the disease shortly after a news conference in which he denied the situation was out of control and denied the 50 deaths previously reported. He was seen sweating and coughing during the press conference. 

 

https://www.timesofi...uthorities-say/

 

Here is an interesting bit of news from that article

 

"Iran confirmed three more deaths and 34 new infections on Tuesday, taking the country’s overall death toll to 15 and infection tally to 95."

 

This makes the iranian death toll at 15/95 or almost 16%. These are the official figures, not the widely claimed 50 deaths reported a few days ago which would indicate a much higher death rate. Also, out of the 95 confirmed cases, 34 are new and should not be counted in the death ratio so 15/61 gives you 25% if we don't add in the newly diagnosed cases. This is the same % as the previously stated 12 deaths from 47 cases a few days ago.

 

Some 35 infected patients were flown into usa despite orders from the president not to bring them in. There were about 15 other confirmed cases in the country virtually guaranteeing that it will spread here. Along with those who came from other countries and have no symptoms yet, its almost sure there will be some of them.

 

The elderly seem to be among the first to fail but it is no respecter of age, any age can get it. The least hit group seems to be 18 to 30, which would be those in greatest health on average.

 

It tells us Iran have no clue who has it, there are probably hundreds with mild symtoms. (Would you dare to go to an Iranian hospital with a highly controversial diagnosis? I would'nt)

[xEva]

No that sounds wrong. There are cases where a single family held numerous different mutations of the virus when tested. (unless that was fake news but it seemed legit)

 

If it is a wild mutator that is both good and bad, bad if it turns like spanish flu did and suddenly kills a 10-20%. Good if it could mutate into some less virulent form.

 

 

If so even better. Being so contagious, it's more likely to become less virulent, coz an asymptomatic host will run around spreading far a wide rather than lying flat and not being in contact with quite as many people.

 

I bet that's how it will turn out. It will become 'just another cold'. In this case it pays to try to avoid it for as long as possible. Give it a chance to circle the planet a couple of times before the inevitable encounter.

 

(or take the plunge and get it over with)

[Mind]

The WHO situation report from February 26th now indicates nearly 1.5% death rate outside of China.

 

57 cases in the U.S. and no deaths yet, but I don't know the profile of the cases, perhaps they are mostly from younger age groups.

 

There still doesn't seem to be any evidence that this is affecting younger age groups, but rather mainly the elderly and other immune-compromised people (as is the case with the seasonal flu). This is to be expected since corona viruses are respiratory ailments, similar to the cold and flu.

Edited by Mind, 26 February 2020 - 08:29 PM.

[adamh]

https://archive.md/nLxHe

 

A chinese health scientist explains why the data coming from his country is much lower than actual figures. One problem is there are not enough test kits and the tests are not very reliable and the tests have many false negatives. 

 

He gave internal figures showing the true number of cases and deaths is 3 to 50 times higher than the number given to the rest of the world.

 

"At times, the Shandong government reported one or two new diagnoses to the public, when the internal data showed much more. On Feb. 22, for example, the government reported two newly diagnosed cases in the day prior, but the real data was 59."

 

[Mind]

https://archive.md/nLxHe

 

A chinese health scientist explains why the data coming from his country is much lower than actual figures. One problem is there are not enough test kits and the tests are not very reliable and the tests have many false negatives. 

 

He gave internal figures showing the true number of cases and deaths is 3 to 50 times higher than the number given to the rest of the world.

 

"At times, the Shandong government reported one or two new diagnoses to the public, when the internal data showed much more. On Feb. 22, for example, the government reported two newly diagnosed cases in the day prior, but the real data was 59."

 

If China is lying that bad (they are certainly trying to manipulate the narrative), and the mortality rate is much higher, the communist leaders should pay a price, meted out by the world community.

[Hebbeh]

The Chinese government obviously knows something the rest of the world doesn't about COVID-19 or they wouldn't of severely damaged their economy with the extreme quarantine measures among everything else they've done in reaction.  It will take years for their economy to recover from their extreme reactions.  And this on top of the economic damage already done from the tariff war.  If COVID-19 was just another typical cold or flu virus coming out of China like happens every year, then there would of been no reaction and no notice...just typical business as usual.  China would of never brought this negative focus on themselves for a typical cold or flu virus.  China has never freaked out like this before.  Ever.  The frightening thing is not what they're telling us but what they're not telling us.  The rest of the world is just following China's lead.  What does this virus do not in the short term but perhaps in the long term?  Is this a pathogen that the immune system can't clear and hangs around forever perhaps?  A variation of HIV perhaps?

[albedo]

A well written article on the NEJM:

Morens DM, Daszak P, Taubenberger JK. Escaping Pandora's Box - Another Novel Coronavirus. N Engl J Med. 2020;
https://www.nejm.org...02106?query=TOC

[Mind]

A well written article on the NEJM:

Morens DM, Daszak P, Taubenberger JK. Escaping Pandora's Box - Another Novel Coronavirus. N Engl J Med. 2020;
https://www.nejm.org...02106?query=TOC

 

Well-written but promoting hysteria and panic - hearkening back to to the 1918 flu several times. The victim profile (so far) with Corvid-19 is mostly the elderly - which is a SIGNIFICANT difference.

[xEva]

14% resurgence rate reported by China is very worrisome 14% of recovered coronavirus patients in China's Guangdong tested positive again

Apparently, rectal swabs (which only Chinese do) show presence of virus weeks after patients were deemed recovered by absence of virus in 2 nasal and throat swabs (2 swabs a week apart).

Edited by xEva, 27 February 2020 - 07:16 PM.

[Mind]

WHO reports 57 deaths, and 3664 cases outside of China. Most of the deaths are from 3 countries. Italy (12), South Korea (13), and Iran (22). Mortality rate of 1.6%.