1539 replies to this topic

[albedo]

Well-written but promoting hysteria and panic - hearkening back to to the 1918 flu several times. The victim profile (so far) with Corvid-19 is mostly the elderly - which is a SIGNIFICANT difference.

 

Obviously you did not like it and I have no problem with that. Myself I did not see any promotion of hysteria and panic while I am seeing a lot on social media and news channels which is why I tend to read what I feel more reliable scientific sources. I do hope the current profile of victims you rightly point to remains as such, maybe they sadly died "with the virus" and "not because of it".

A lecture I assisted to last 26 02 (the speaker was insisting a lot about the status at that day and hour) was nice at least for me to clarify scientific terminology and concepts, I like to add it here: https://memento.epfl...on-feb-26th-10/
 

Edited by albedo, 28 February 2020 - 08:40 AM.

[kurdishfella]

This is what I've found so far haven't read this thread yet.

 

Real number of infections and deaths much higher than reported

Actual incubation period up to four weeks to 3 months

Breathing masks useless, virus penetrates because so small 

Full-body protective suit, breathing apparatus only real protection

Hermetic quarantine required, must be longer than 2 weeks

Asian races initially most susceptible but will spread to others

The WHO culpable for not immediately proclaiming pandemic risk

 

https://halturnerrad...l-journal-study

https://gisanddata.m...423467b48e9ecf6

https://www.nature.c...1368-020-0074-x

https://www.ncbi.nlm...les/PMC5986684/

https://www.theepoch...er_3251354.html

https://epochtimes.t...-the-facts-say/

https://www.scmp.com...-scientists-say

https://www.rt.com/n...ll-binding-hiv/

 

http://chinaxiv.org/abs/202002.00004 translation below:

 

 

Abstract: In December 2019, Wuhan, China reported pneumonia caused by the 2019 novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV). Based on genomic information, our previous results showed that although 2019-nCoV and SARS coronavirus both belong to the Beta Coronavirus B subgroup (BB coronavirus), the two viruses are very different, and this result is consistent with the clinical symptoms of the two. Previous studies have also found that BB coronaviruses have a large number of variable translations, and revealed the characteristics of BB coronaviruses that mutate quickly and have high diversity at the molecular level. An important mutation in the BB coronavirus S protein was reported for the first time in this study. This mutation provided 2019-nCoV with a site for Furin protease cleavage, which is all other BB coronaviruses except mouse hepatitis coronavirus ( Including SARS and SARS-like coronavirus). This mutation has the potential to enhance the efficiency of 2019-nCoV infecting cells, which in turn makes it significantly more aggressive than SARS coronavirus. Due to this mutation, the packaging mechanism of 2019 coronavirus will also be different from most other Beta coronaviruses such as SARS, and may be the same as the packaging mechanisms of murine hepatitis coronavirus, HIV, Ebola virus and some avian influenza viruses. As an unexpected discovery, some avian influenza viruses can also obtain Furin protease cleavage sites through mutations. Subsequent research on this important mutation will lay the foundation for revealing the reasons for the strong transmission of 2019-nCoV, as well as for the development of drugs, antibodies and vaccines.

 

Edited by kurdishfella, 28 February 2020 - 02:53 PM.

[Hip]

Actual incubation period up to four weeks to 3 months

 

Can you explain how it is possible to determine that the incubation period is up to 3 months, when this virus only appeared less than two months ago?

[Hebbeh]

I'm not sure about the incubation period but some reports have indicated that initial infections started appearing last September long before the pandemic started in December and long before China started admitting to it in January.

[kurdishfella]

Explainer: Coronavirus reappears in discharged patients, raising questions in containment fight

https://www.reuters....r-idUSKCN20M124

you can infect others without showing symptoms in the incubation time 

Edited by kurdishfella, 28 February 2020 - 04:57 PM.

[Mind]

For those that think extreme quarantine measures will solve everything, consider the Chinese situation. In the last 2 months we have witnessed the greatest quarantine, martial law, shut-down the world has ever seen.

 

What happened? It didn't work.

 

Now, you could argue that the communists didn't arrest enough, kill enough, quarantine enough people early enough, to stop the spread. That is possible. I would argue that in today's hyper-connected world, effective quarantine is not possible - not without very negative effects to the economy - which will kill a lot more people that the virus itself.

[Hip]

For those that think extreme quarantine measures will solve everything, consider the Chinese situation. In the last 2 months we have witnessed the greatest quarantine, martial law, shut-down the world has ever seen.

 

What happened? It didn't work.

 

So far only about 80,000 people in China are reported infected. How can you be so sure that quarantine measures are not working; the number infected might be much higher by now if quarantine had not been imposed. 

[Mind]

So far only about 80,000 people in China are reported infected. How can you be so sure that quarantine measures are not working; the number infected might be much higher by now if quarantine had not been imposed. 

 

You make a reasonable point, but we can't know "what could have been", only what happened. I make the statement - observing that eventually, essentially, the entire country was shut down. We will never know the true impact because deaths unrelated to the virus but indirectly caused by the quarantine will never be known.

[ymc]

For those that think extreme quarantine measures will solve everything, consider the Chinese situation. In the last 2 months we have witnessed the greatest quarantine, martial law, shut-down the world has ever seen.

 

What happened? It didn't work.

 

 

Well, if you trust the Chinese data, it worked. Daily new cases outside Hubei is now in single digit. Chinese people are now worrying importing virus from overseas. They even come up with a book to praise the great leadership of Chairman Xi in the battle with CoVID-19.

 

http://product.dangd...m/28517546.html

[ymc]

 

Breathing masks useless, virus penetrates because so small 

 

 

Please stop spreading false information that virus are too small to be filtered by masks.

 

Virus can only survive by parasiting on cells. Cells are 5um to 150um in diameter.

 

N95 masks can filter 95% of 0.3um particles, so they should work very well in filtering viruses.

 

Everyday masks are not doing as well but should help to some extent and can vary greatly in the filtering capability.

 

The purpose of putting everyday masks on everyone is to stop asymptomatic patients from spreading the virus.

[Hip]

Please stop spreading false information that virus are too small to be filtered by masks.

 

Virus can only survive by parasiting on cells. Cells are 5um to 150um in diameter.

 

N95 masks can filter 95% of 0.3um particles, so they should work very well in filtering viruses.

 

In fact viruses only survive when a group of them are ejected from the mouth or nose in a tiny globule of water. That is the way they are transmitted from person to person, inside globules of spittle or nasal mucous (not inside cells). And these water globules are too large to fit through a N95 or N99 mask (or the European equivalents of FFP2 and FFP3 respectively).

 

So provided you have one of these masks, and provided it is close-fitting and does not leak air around the edges (having a beard causes it to leak air), then you are reasonably protected.

 

 

 

Edited by Hip, 29 February 2020 - 01:00 AM.

[Mind]

One thing that the US and other northern hemisphere countries have going for them is that the season is turning to Spring. This is when flu/cold and respiratory viruses like corona usually fade away. I suspect this has to do with stronger immune response. Others have speculated that this is because people spend less time indoors and there is less transmission. Still others have speculated that virus transmission is more efficient in the dry air of Winter.

[kurdishfella]

Has this been posted https://www.ncbi.nlm...es/PMC2863430/ 

 

English is my 3rd language but I think it says coronavirus survives for a month on surface? could this possibly apply to this new covid 19 version which is the mutated version if I am understanding right?
 

Edited by kurdishfella, 29 February 2020 - 11:13 AM.

[Mind]

WHO situation report from yesterday indicates 1.4% mortality rate. Interesting to note that if Iran is not included, the mortality rate is less than 1%.

 

I am sure the virus is everywhere by now - given how long people can have it without knowing it. What I suspect is that there will be an "epidemic of testing". Media outlets will go overboard reporting "The corona virus has spread to here". "The corona virus has spread to there". Most media outlets in the U.S. hate the president so much they will use every new case to stoke maximum fear in the hopes they can get rid of him. Sad but true.

 

This isn't SARS. This isn't Ebola.

 

If you promote hysteria, a quarantine will come to your community. People and businesses living paycheck-to-paycheck, will be left penniless. What do you think people who have no money and have no food will do during a month-long quarantine? You and I don't need a societal collapse for a virus that has been known for decades (the corona family) and whose current variation has well less than 2% mortality rate, almost exclusively in elderly populations.

[ymc]

WHO situation report from yesterday indicates 1.4% mortality rate. Interesting to note that if Iran is not included, the mortality rate is less than 1%.

 

I am sure the virus is everywhere by now - given how long people can have it without knowing it. What I suspect is that there will be an "epidemic of testing". Media outlets will go overboard reporting "The corona virus has spread to here". "The corona virus has spread to there". Most media outlets in the U.S. hate the president so much they will use every new case to stoke maximum fear in the hopes they can get rid of him. Sad but true.

 

This isn't SARS. This isn't Ebola.

 

If you promote hysteria, a quarantine will come to your community. People and businesses living paycheck-to-paycheck, will be left penniless. What do you think people who have no money and have no food will do during a month-long quarantine? You and I don't need a societal collapse for a virus that has been known for decades (the corona family) and whose current variation has well less than 2% mortality rate, almost exclusively in elderly populations.

 

Suppose your 1% death rate is correct. Can US accept 3 millions deaths from coronavirus which is 300 times the deaths caused by all kinds of flus in a year? 

 

Apparently, even China is willing to bear the economic cost to avoid that from happening. Whether US should choose economy or the health of their citizens will depend on the US government and their people. There are no easy choices.

 

Besides the China model, I think there are other models that US can follow to minimize the economic cost, for example, the Macau model or the Singapore model.

[Hip]

You and I don't need a societal collapse for a virus that has been known for decades (the corona family) and whose current variation has well less than 2% mortality rate, almost exclusively in elderly populations.

 

I suspect you would not have the same views if this virus was killing the young and healthy, as Spanish flu did. 

 

In any case, quarantining whole towns and cities is only done in less sophisticated countries. In the UK, the well-rehearsed measures for dealing with viral outbreaks are more advanced, and do not require whole towns to be placed in lockdown. 

Edited by Hip, 29 February 2020 - 04:39 PM.

[Mind]

I suspect you would not have the same views if this virus was killing the young and healthy, as Spanish flu did. 

 

In any case, quarantining whole towns and cities is only done in less sophisticated countries. In the UK, the well-rehearsed measures for dealing with viral outbreaks are more advanced, and do not require whole towns to be placed in lockdown. 

 

Yes. It would be more serious for society as a whole. Because this virus does not appear to be very deadly among the younger and healthy, I have advocated for more focus upon elderly populations - putting maximum resources into maximum care for the vulnerable. I fear that if extreme quarantine measures spread too far and wide, it will lead to shortages of the material and human capital to needed to help the vulnerable.

 

Also, obviously yes if the true mortality rate was way over 10%, such as many not-so-well-sourced news outlets proclaim.

[xEva]

Hip, in your research have you come across the info about the possible charge of those minute droplets? Coz, if there is a charge, then, in the mask, we could use the material with the opposite charge to make the particles adhere to the fibers, (say, spray it with a static guard -- or should it be a spray with the opposite charge -?) 

 

This principle is employed in innate immune sis, with antimicrobial peptides having strong affinity to the cell walls of bacteria.But what about viruses in these globules?

[Hip]

Hip, in your research have you come across the info about the possible charge of those minute droplets? Coz, if there is a charge, then, in the mask, we could use the material with the opposite charge to make the particles adhere to the fibers, (say, spray it with a static guard -- or should it be a spray with the opposite charge -?) 

 

This principle is employed in innate immune sis, with antimicrobial peptides having strong affinity to the cell walls of bacteria.But what about viruses in these globules?

 

No real need for that.

 

A regular N95 mask filters particles down to 0.1 μm size. The large droplets ejected by people are greater than  20  μm, which is much larger, so the mask is easily capable of stopping those. 

 

The COVID-19 coronavirus is not thought to transmit by aerosol, which comprises smaller droplets of less than 10  μm, but even so, the N95 mask will stop the vast majority of those smaller droplets too.

Edited by Hip, 29 February 2020 - 06:10 PM.

[Hip]

Yes. It would be more serious for society as a whole. Because this virus does not appear to be very deadly among the younger and healthy, I have advocated for more focus upon elderly populations - putting maximum resources into maximum care for the vulnerable. I fear that if extreme quarantine measures spread too far and wide, it will lead to shortages of the material and human capital to needed to help the vulnerable.

 

Also, obviously yes if the true mortality rate was way over 10%, such as many not-so-well-sourced news outlets proclaim.

 

Older people are much more at risk, but even children are not immune. I calculate below that 230 thousand teenagers will die if COVID-19 becomes a pandemic.

 

This site provides a death rate by age chart:

 

 

I think you can divide the above percentage death rates by 3 to get more realistic death rates for locations outside of Wuhan. The death rate in Wuhan is about 3 times higher than in other Chinese cities, and also 3 times higher compared to other countries. There's something about Wuhan that makes the virus more deadly there; it may be the pollution. So I think we need to divide by 3 to get the death rates for the rest of the world.

 

Thus the death rate for teenagers (the 10 to 19 years old group) will be around 0.07% (which is 0.2% divided by 3).

 

There are around 1 billion teenagers in the world, and if we assume that realistically in a pandemic, the virus will infect about one third of them, then about 330 million teenagers will be infected, and at a 0.07% death rate, 230 thousands will die.

 

 

 

 

EDIT: there was an error in my calcs, but I've now corrected that.

 

Edited by Hip, 29 February 2020 - 06:07 PM.

[adamh]

First known death from CV in usa. A 50 year old woman was the first to die, not in third world country and with modern medical care. 

 

https://abcnews.go.c...ory?id=69301655

 

What so many people keep overlooking is the fact that areas which have only recently gotten cases are not a good guide to the percent of fatalities. Since corona takes weeks if not months to kill, the brand new cases make the death rate look lower. The reason wuhan has such a high death rate is most likely because they have had it longer and more cases are end stage rather than brand new infections. If not, then what is another explanation? If you think the virus is getting weaker as it spreads, why would that be? We would all like to think its weakening but we dont know yet.

[albedo]

A nice visualization tool from the System Science and Engineering team at Johns Hopkins to keep track of COVID-19:

 

https://gisanddata.m...423467b48e9ecf6

[xEva]

First known death from CV in usa. A 50 year old woman was the first to die, not in third world country and with modern medical care.

https://abcnews.go.c...ory?id=69301655

What so many people keep overlooking is the fact that areas which have only recently gotten cases are not a good guide to the percent of fatalities. Since corona takes weeks if not months to kill, the brand new cases make the death rate look lower. The reason wuhan has such a high death rate is most likely because they have had it longer and more cases are end stage rather than brand new infections. If not, then what is another explanation? If you think the virus is getting weaker as it spreads, why would that be? We would all like to think its weakening but we dont know yet.

I think the factor in fatalities among those unfortunate 5% (5% hat require ICU) is the quality of care. It becomes inadequate when resources are overwhelmed or when they are scarce to begin with. Thus we see a higher mortality rate in Hubei and Iran. It may become the case here once this hits hard.
 
.

Edited by xEva, 29 February 2020 - 09:12 PM.

[albedo]

Let's buy time and act to our best to lower the reproduction number (R0):

 

"...A robust research effort is currently under way to develop a vaccine against Covid-19.¹⁰ We anticipate that the first candidates will enter phase 1 trials by early spring. Therapy currently consists of supportive care while a variety of investigational approaches are being explored.¹¹ Among these are the antiviral medication lopinavir–ritonavir, interferon-1β, the RNA polymerase inhibitor remdesivir, chloroquine, and a variety of traditional Chinese medicine products.^11..."

 

"...As the authors note, until this number falls below 1.0, it is likely that the outbreak will continue to spread. Recent reports of high titers of virus in the oropharynx early in the course of disease arouse concern about increased infectivity during the period of minimal symptoms.^6,7..."

 

Fauci AS, Lane HC, Redfield RR. Covid-19 - Navigating the Uncharted. N Engl J Med. 2020;

 

 

 

[Mind]

First known death from CV in usa. A 50 year old woman was the first to die, not in third world country and with modern medical care. 

 

https://abcnews.go.c...ory?id=69301655

 

What so many people keep overlooking is the fact that areas which have only recently gotten cases are not a good guide to the percent of fatalities. Since corona takes weeks if not months to kill, the brand new cases make the death rate look lower. The reason wuhan has such a high death rate is most likely because they have had it longer and more cases are end stage rather than brand new infections. If not, then what is another explanation? If you think the virus is getting weaker as it spreads, why would that be? We would all like to think its weakening but we dont know yet.

 

I think this is wrong. The death was a man in his 50s who was already seriously ill. https://apnews.com/f...ab27725c9e8a0d7

 

The woman and the teenager are fine:

 

 

Washington state health officials announced two other new coronavirus cases Friday night, including a high school student who attends Jackson High School in Everett, said Dr. Chris Spitters of the Snohomish County Health District.

The other case in Washington was a woman in in King County in her 50s who had recently traveled to South Korea, authorities said. Neither patient was seriously ill.

[Mind]

 

 

There are around 1 billion teenagers in the world, and if we assume that realistically in a pandemic, the virus will infect about one third of them, then about 330 million teenagers will be infected, and at a 0.07% death rate, 230 thousands will die.

 

I appreciate the time put into the numbers, however there has never been a virus of any kind that has ever infected anywhere near 100% percent of the world's population, so 230,000 teenage deaths is an extreme over-estimation.

[adamh]

 

I think the factor in fatalities among those unfortunate 5% (5% hat require ICU) is the quality of care. It becomes inadequate when resources are overwhelmed or when they are scarce to begin with. Thus we see a higher mortality rate in Hubei and Iran. It may become the case here once this hits hard.
 
.

 

How did you determine that 5% need intensive care? We get conflicting figures out of iran, around 25% died according to a couple reports then the figures changed. Nothing out of china is reliable. 

 

What is concerning is that we knew about the virus before it hit and all patients have gotten top notch care, presumably. Yet we have our first fatality just a couple weeks or however many days since the first cases were announced. 1 out of 65 is over 1% and the 65 cases include many new ones so figure on a higher death rate than that.

 

What is alarming is that the 2 or 3% rate or whatever it turns out to be is with the benefit of a hospital and doctors to treat them. What happens if or when the health care system gets backed up? How many will die with no treatment? We don't know but it certainly will be more.

 

Could it be that its better to get it early while treatment is available than to get it later when none is to be had?  Or is it better to put it off as long as possible in hopes of a vaccine? The year and a half wait is mostly because of bureaucratic and safety measures. I think the danger is greater in waiting than it is in plunging ahead with something that works but is not thoroughly vetted. 

 

Can we manufacture the antivirals that have already been shown to have some benefit or has it all been outsourced to china?

[adamh]

I think this is wrong. The death was a man in his 50s who was already seriously ill. https://apnews.com/f...ab27725c9e8a0d7

 

The woman and the teenager are fine:

Now we have dueling news accounts. Whether it was a man or woman is not that important unless we see it hitting males more. They said he had "underlying health issues" but did not say seriously ill in that news article. Neither do we know what health issues, if it was lung problems or depressed immune system then that could be the reason but if its a bad back or many other things that may not have been a factor. 

 

Also they mention he had no known contact with any person who had traveled and he had not either. The damned virus may be spreading like wildfire and we only see the cases when they get sick, perhaps 2 or 3 weeks down the road. 

 

Even a vaccine will do limited good if the disease lingers and flares up constantly like so many others we've seen both viral and bacterial. That would be a bigger challenge than losing 3% of population and the rest are fine. We may lose a lot of productivity, the economic hit is looming and it will be big.

[Hip]

I appreciate the time put into the numbers, however there has never been a virus of any kind that has ever infected anywhere near 100% percent of the world's population, so 230,000 teenage deaths is an extreme over-estimation.

 

In my calc I estimated that about 33% of teenagers would be infected, not a 100%. The estimate of 230 thousand teenager deaths is based on a third being infected, and 0.07% of the infected teenagers dying. 

 

This 33% figure is realistic, as the swine flu pandemic in 2009 infected around a 25% of the world's population, and Spanish flu infected an estimated 28% of the population.

Edited by Hip, 01 March 2020 - 01:25 AM.

[xEva]

How did you determine that 5% need intensive care? We get conflicting figures out of iran, around 25% died according to a couple reports then the figures changed. Nothing out of china is reliable. 

 

 

These are Chinese figures. 80% have mild symptoms, 15% get pretty sick and 5% require intensive care. 

 

I know people mistrust the Chinese figures, but they are in line with the Diamond Princess case. I'm not gonna look for the exact numbers now, but from what I recall, they had ~4K passengers and crew, of those ~700 tested positive and, despite most passengers being older, there have been around 7 deaths so far. I think the lower number could be attributed to an excellent care they got and that the passengers as a whole were an affluent crowd (i.e. well nourished and in generally good health).

 

re: "Could it be that its better to get it early while treatment is available than to get it later when none is to be had?"

 

Just my thought a few days back! Take the plunge and get it over with, while good care is still available. Otherwise the anxiety is killing me Presumably, after that one is immune and can just skip all the turmoil -- and it will last for over a year (!!)

Edited by xEva, 01 March 2020 - 02:52 AM.