1539 replies to this topic

[lancebr]

Is there any good reason to believe that this virus might dissipate or burn out once spring and summer get here.

[Mind]

Is there any good reason to believe that this virus might dissipate or burn out once spring and summer get here.

 

There are many people/doctors in the news saying "don't count on it to subside with the onset of warmer weather". However, since it is a cold/flu-type virus, I would expect it to subside.

[Mind]

https://www.google.c...-in-the-us.html

Top US health official says the coronavirus is 10 times 'more lethal' than the seasonal flu.

"I can say we will see more cases and things will get worse than they are right now," Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, told a House committee Wednesday.
How much worse it will get depends on two things, he said: containing the influx of infected people coming from other countries and containing local outbreaks within the U.S.
Local and state officials have taken various measures to try to contain the spread of the virus, including closing schools and even mobilizing National Guard troops to a New York suburb.

A top U.S. health official said the worst is yet to come with the coronavirus outbreak that has already infected more than 1,000 people across the nation and resulted in at least 31 deaths.

"I can say we will see more cases and things will get worse than they are right now," Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, told the House Oversight and Reform Committee on Wednesday at a hearing on the nation's preparedness for the outbreak.

Fauci said COVID-19 is at least 10 times "more lethal" than the seasonal flu, even if the mortality rate drops far below the World Health Organization's current estimate of 3.4%.

 

I calculated this earlier in the thread. I also wrote a blog about it here: https://waow.com/202...e-corona-virus/

 

It seems it is 10 times more deadly among the elderly, but not any other age group.

[lancebr]

I calculated this earlier in the thread. I also wrote a blog about it here: https://waow.com/202...e-corona-virus/

 

It seems it is 10 times more deadly among the elderly, but not any other age group.

 

Does that seem to be mainly elderly people with underlying conditions? 

 

I am sure that there have been some elderly (ie 70 to 90 or older) that have contracted it and

have not died, but just haven't heard about it in the news since they didn't die.

 

 

Edited by lancebr, 11 March 2020 - 06:37 PM.

[kurdishfella]

Elderly have weaker immune system and slower metabolism if they can keep these working better perhaps they can survive it. Immune system is center of the health and it is depended on a healthy metabolism to quickly remove foreign stuff. What I have noticed is that Children are mainly immune but main hidden spreaders of disease. 

I read a comment on youtube that said he lived in a village off a few thousand people and the virus had gotten there, and he continued on to say if it is there it must be everywhere because his location is remote. The virus seems to do better in cold than warmth.

Edited by kurdishfella, 11 March 2020 - 06:48 PM.

[Heisok]

"California's Sacramento County is calling off automatic 14-day quarantines that have been implemented for the coronavirus, saying it will focus instead on mitigating the impact of COVID-19.

The change is an acknowledgement that the county cannot effectively manage the quarantines while its health system copes with coronavirus cases. It also reflects problems with the U.S. government's coronavirus testing program — issues that slowed efforts to identify people with the deadly virus and to contain COVID-19.

"With the shift from containment to mitigation, it is no longer necessary for someone who has been in contact with someone with COVID-19 to quarantine for 14 days,"

Effective immediately, people in Sacramento County should not quarantine themselves if they've been exposed to the COVID-19. Instead, they should go into isolation only if they begin to show symptoms of the respiratory virus, the county's health department says."

 

Also other Counties. The runs on certain supplies are true. May have been a CDC recommendation, but there has been a suggestion to stock up on supplies.

 

https://www.npr.org/...day-quarantines

 

https://www.cdc.gov/...plications.html

Edited by Heisok, 11 March 2020 - 06:45 PM.

[BlueCloud]

While deaths are heavily skewed towards the 60+ y.o, a sizable  amount of young and healthy people can still get serious symptoms and end up in intensive care. It doesn't get talked about as much, giving a false sense of security. Here a 17 yo girl ends up with pneumonia after becoming positive : https://www.reddit.c..._infected_from/

 

Also, i've seen various reports that it is now expected that 40 to 70% of the world population will be infected. It's not a matter of "if" anymore but of "when". recent studies seems to indicate it is far more contagious than thought previously , stays up to 3 hours in the air and between 1  to 9 days on surfaces : https://www.reddit.c...rs_24_hours_on/

 

 

 

 

[Mind]

While deaths are heavily skewed towards the 60+ y.o, a sizable  amount of young and healthy people can still get serious symptoms and end up in intensive care. It doesn't get talked about as much, giving a false sense of security. Here a 17 yo girl ends up with pneumonia after becoming positive : https://www.reddit.c..._infected_from/

 

Also, i've seen various reports that it is now expected that 40 to 70% of the world population will be infected. It's not a matter of "if" anymore but of "when". recent studies seems to indicate it is far more contagious than thought previously , stays up to 3 hours in the air and between 1  to 9 days on surfaces : https://www.reddit.c...rs_24_hours_on/

 

Like kurdishfella mentioned earlier, since confirmed infections are popping up everywhere, it is likely that it is already widespread, in every state and in every country. We just don't notice it until it strikes a concentrated population of the elderly.

 

For those keeping track, the latest fatality in Los Angeles today was "over 60 and in ill-health". The local tv station did not give an exact age.

[Mind]

Someone in a different thread shared this graphic which appears to show mortality rates by age group. Skewing heavily into older populations. Very low mortality risk for younger people.

Attached Files

•  Italian mortality rate by age.jpg   96.45KB   1 downloads

[ymc]

Someone in a different thread shared this graphic which appears to show mortality rates by age group. Skewing heavily into older populations. Very low mortality risk for younger people.

 

https://en.wikipedia..._in_South_Korea

 

It is a known fact that death rate is lower for younger people but it is not that low overall. Based on the Korean data, 0.1% death rate for age 30-49. This is already higher than the death rate for all flus combined.

 

Please note that this number is just a lower bound as it takes about a month for someone to die from this disease. The current South Korea death rate is 0.7%. If it reaches the WHO estimated death rate 3.4%, the death rate for 30-49 will then become 0.5%.

[BlueCloud]

 

The majority of people with Covid-19 can be managed at home. But among 44,000 cases in China, about 15% required hospitalization and 5% ended up in critical care. In Italy, the statistics so far are even more dismal: More than half of infected individuals require hospitalization and about 10% need treatment in the ICU.

 

https://www.statnews...swers-covid-19/

 

Half of infected indivuduals require hospitalisation ??? Why is this so different from the China numbers ? This is huge and quite worrying ...

Edited by BlueCloud, 11 March 2020 - 11:04 PM.

[kurdishfella]

Does anyone know if italy or iran has higher elderly population compared to other places? I feel like they do but that is just my gut feeling. 

[ymc]

Does anyone know if italy or iran has higher elderly population compared to other places? I feel like they do but that is just my gut feeling. 

 

Italy 65 and above is 20.2%. Germany 22.36%, France 19.82%. Spain 18.15%. UK 18%. So Italy is about average among Western European countries.

 

https://en.wikipedia...aphics_of_Italy

https://en.wikipedia...hics_of_Germany

https://en.wikipedia...phics_of_France

https://en.wikipedia...aphics_of_Spain

https://en.wikipedia..._United_Kingdom

 

The reason why it is so serious is many Chinese Italians are from Wenzhou which is the epicentre outside Hubei. Many Wenzhou people immigrated to Italy to make clothes and \

bags. 

 

https://www.theguard...e-wenzhou-italy

 

Iran's 65 and above is 5.28%. So they are significantly younger. I suspect their high death rate is due to underreported cases and overwhelmed healthcare system.

 

https://en.wikipedia...raphics_of_Iran

[ymc]

Trump bans all travels from Europe except UK.

 

https://www.dailymai...l-aid-sick.html

 

Looks like while Trump talks like our topic starter Mind, he is actually willing to do the real stuff to stop the spread.

 

Now comes the hard part of sacrificing some economic growth by taking measures similar to Korea, Singapore, Hong Kong, etc.

[Adaptogen]

Trump bans all travels from Europe except UK.

https://www.dailymai...l-aid-sick.html

Looks like while Trump talks like our topic starter Mind, he is actually willing to do the real stuff to stop the spread.

Does anyone actually believe that closing borders to Europe is a great solution? Sure it is necessary, every country should halt travel as much as possible when trying to contain a pandemic, but there is no doubt that there are tens of thousands of infected already in the United States.

The government is taking too lax an approach on mitigation. International containment strategies become meaningless when your neighbors, co-workers, or bus drivers already have the virus.

Edited by Adaptogen, 12 March 2020 - 02:18 AM.

[ymc]

Does anyone actually believe that closing borders to Europe is a great solution? Sure it is necessary, every country should halt travel as much as possible when trying to contain a pandemic, but there is no doubt that there are tens of thousands of infected already in the United States. The government is taking too lax an approach on mitigation. International containment strategies become meaningless when your neighbors, co-workers, or bus drivers already have the virus.

 

Well, at least this is a good step forward. 

 

I am more optimistic than you on the US situation. Trump seems to have delegated coronavirus containment to VP Pence. Pence did the right thing to unload Grand Princess passengers. Masks production is also now being subsidized. Let's hope VP Pence will keep doing the right things in local containment.

[ymc]

https://slate.com/te...rus-spread.html

 

Success stories in Taiwan and Singapore. There are many things you can do even in the free world. Let's work together because the virus is our common enemy.

[Dorian Grey]

Looks like Italy has so many critical patients, they are planning to triage ICU beds.  Oldsters need not apply!  

 

https://www.dailymai...ak-worsens.html

 

"intensive care units are advise to stop treating the elderly"

 

"medics should stop treating elderly and focus on those with better survival chances"

 

Fare thee well and adieu old-timers.  

[BlueCloud]

Trump bans all travels from Europe except UK.

 

https://www.dailymai...l-aid-sick.html

 

Looks like while Trump talks like our topic starter Mind, he is actually willing to do the real stuff to stop the spread.

 

Now comes the hard part of sacrificing some economic growth by taking measures similar to Korea, Singapore, Hong Kong, etc.

But not the UK..lol....The UK has more cases than many other european countries, but I guess business  and politics before rationality, as usual from the very stable genius.

 

EDIT : oh well, that was predictable. 
“The United Kingdom, which is home to Trump Turnberry and Trump International Golf Links, and Ireland, which is home to another Trump-branded hotel and golf course at Doonbeg, do not participate in the Schengen Area.”

https://www.politico...-resorts-126808

 

Edited by BlueCloud, 12 March 2020 - 08:52 AM.

[Moumou]

What we don't need right now is economical crash plus pandemic. Trump is going to spread economical distress and won't stop the virus spreading, for two reasons : 1) obviously, its already in the U.S. 2) this virus is going to stay and will be integrated as common disease for the years coming, in long list of virus compatible with our organisms. We should fear more the economic fallout than the pandemic ones.

[osris]

It’s fascinating watching this coronavirus psychodrama being played out. I personally think that it's really pneumonia, and has been renamed as a very deadly disease, either to usher in some sort of worldwide marshal law, or to “discover” a vaccine for “it” and scare people into having it.

[Mind]

Many people have mentioned that the Corona flu is "already" all over the U.S.

 

This is very likely because there has been only limited testing and no internal restrictions on travelling or gatherings until this week. I suspect millions of people already have it. Thus, banning travel from Europe seems useless at this point.

 

I think I had it. My illness was bad in February, now I am just left with some lingering lung/trachea damage.

 

 

[osris]

If coronavirus is something other than pneumonia, and I’ve yet to see any evidence that it is, then it is a very strange disease: one that only Italy takes seriously. Surely if it was so bad, then all countries in the world would have ended up like Italy and in lock-down. This laxity of measures indicates that we are dealing not with a serious disease but with a propaganda drive of some sort. To what ends, we can only guess.

[ymc]

 

I think I had it. My illness was bad in February, now I am just left with some lingering lung/trachea damage.

 

I highly doubt you had it. You can get an antibody test or a CT scan of your lung to prove me wrong. 

 

While US didn't test coronavirus extensively, international travel hubs like Hong Kong and Singapore has been doing testing extensively. So far, there are still no import cases from the US. In contrast, among the recent 17 cases in Hong Kong, there are 16 imported cases: 4 from an Indian tour group, 9 from an Egyptian tour group, 2 from a Madrid flight and 1 from a London flight. I think tour guides in tour groups are in high risk, so tours should be avoided. Also, apparently there were underreporting in Egypt and India because I also observed imported cases to Japan. (I can also read Japanese btw)

 

Anyway, deaths outside China again doubled in three days...

 

Hubei: 3056/(3056+50316) = 5.73%

China outside Hubei: 113/(113+12507) = 0.895%

Rest of the World: 1777/(1777+5852) = 23.29%

 

China data stabilizes whereas RoW rises dramatically...

[Hebbeh]

https://m.ctpost.com...st-15125717.php

Iran's coronavirus burial pits are so vast they're visible from space

[Hebbeh]

https://theweek.com/...y-shutting-down

If you think things have gotten bad in the United States — where St. Patrick's Day parades have been canceled, and the NBA is suspended for the rest of the season — just wait until you hear about Norway. Starting Thursday, the small Nordic country announced "measures that will be the most extensive Norway's population has experienced in peacetime," and which involve practically shutting down the entire country in order to slow the spread of the new coronavirus, Norwegian Minister of Health and Care Services Bent Høie told the national broadcaster, NRK.

[Kalliste]

The videos of children struggling for air in Iran sank my heart. This is going to be the equvivalent of losing a capital city to a high altitude hydrogen bomb healthcarewise for every country in EU/USA. No ICU for a long time to come.

 

Italy is doing hard-core triage as we speak: That applies to everyone cancer, heart attack, road accident, Corona, a DR that has not slept for 40 hours will glance at you and decide.

 

Trump will lose next election, either he is senile or surrounded by money-men, can't believe he's been so weak on this.

 

Here in Sweden the air is electric, my clinic did not receive shipments of sanitizers, gloves, masks this week.

 

A storm is coming

Edited by Kalliste, 12 March 2020 - 06:40 PM.

[Mind]

So far in the U.S. 38 deaths and no healthy person under 70 has died. As the cases/fatalities expand, it will be increasingly hard to chase down local news reports to find out the case details. I don't have enough time to keep track. Perhaps we should collaborate somehow? Any suggestions.

 

One thing I am worried about is the homeless population in California. Most coastal cities in California have areas that are like a 3rd-world disaster/refugee zone, with tens of thousands of homeless living in unsanitary conditions and doing a lot of drugs. Once it gets into that population, it will likely be devastating.

[pamojja]

One thing I am worried about is the homeless population in California. .. Once it gets into that population, it will likely be devastating.

 

That is also my concern, working myself in a homeless shelter. And coming back from a 2 months vacation to South-India, where at that time no testing has been available. Same back in Austria: Despite cold symptoms, it wasn't possible to get tested, because India is still not considered one of the risky areas..

 

 

 

https://mp.weixin.qq...iOfe1yimBc4XwOA

 

Expert consensus on comprehensive treatment of coronavirus disease in Shanghai 2019

Shanghai Medical Association 1 week ago

 

[Editor's note]

On March 1st, the Chinese Journal of Infectious Diseases, which was hosted by the Shanghai Medical Association, pre-published the "Expert Consensus on Comprehensive Treatment of Coronavirus in Shanghai 2019" (http://rs.yiigle.com...ufabiao/1183266 .htm), which has attracted widespread attention in the industry. Shanghai TV also reported on the news last night. This consensus was reached by 30 experts representing the strongest medical force for the treatment of new-type coronavirus pneumonia in Shanghai. Through the study and summary of more than 300 clinical patients, and fully learning from the treatment experience of colleagues at home and abroad, the "Shanghai Plan" was finally formed. At the end of the article, the list of 30 subject experts (18 writing experts and 12 consulting experts) from various medical institutions in Shanghai is attached.

 

Translated with google and attached as .rtf

 

 Expert consensus on comprehensive treatme.rtf   38.39KB   42 downloads

[ambivalent]

I am a little surprised that no country has contemplated quarantining its children in schools to create virus camps. Most children will get it, don't appear to suffer and those that did could be attentively monitored and receive comprehensive medical care while the country still retains the capability to do so. In just a few weeks the most transmissive group are immunised and the anticipated infection peak flattens dramatically.