1539 replies to this topic

[Mind]

Interesting story from late February about flu hospitalizations in Connecticut. By the end of February, over 2,200 hospitalizations from the flu in Connecticut alone. 58 deaths, including 1 infant.

[Kalliste]

Death rate in China:

1. Low because mental mode military lockdown, massive mobilization of resoources, built ventilator hospital in a few days.

2. Low because no other number would be reported because it could cause civil unrest, maybe it was high,

 

Death rate in Italy:

1. Triage, old people literally told to stay at home and die.

40 year old and 30 year old admitted at same time, care given to 30 year old. Literally.

 

Death rate in place with no military lockdown, not a good hospital system:

Probably high

[ymc]

Another three days, another doubling of deaths outside China. We are still in the exponential growth phase with no end in sight...

 

Rest of the World: 6803/(6803+18017) = 27.41%

 

https://www.epicentr... marzo 2020.pdf

 

If we look at the latest Italian deaths breakdown, we can see several things relative to the Korean data:

1. Much more men than women are diagnosed than Korea

2. Much more old people are diagnosed than Korea

 

If we consider Korea's testing capacity is the gold standard (which is likely because it matches their population age distribution very well),

we can say that Italy most likely only tests people who came to the hospital, so their number of cases is underestimated.

 

On the other hand, the deaths per capita of US is now getting away from Japan. This is not a good sign. 

[zorba990]

https://www.i24news....llnesses-report
Italian research finds 99% of virus victims had prior illnesses: report
Moreover, average age of COVID-19 deaths stands at 79.5, study shows

A new Italian study found that more than 99% of the country's coronavirus victims were patients who suffered from previous health issues, Bloomberg reported Wednesday.

The research, conducted by the country’s national health authority, a Rome-based institute, could explain why Italy’s death rate is higher than in other nations -- at almost 8% of total COVID-19 patients.
Examining 18% of Italy’s virus fatalities, the study showed that only three non-survivors had no previous pathology, according to Bloomberg. In addition, almost 50% of the victims suffered from at least three previous illnesses and approximately 25% had one or two previous conditions.

More than 75% of victims had high blood pressure, 35% had diabetes and a third suffered from heart disease.

Moreover, the disease is clearly deadlier to the elderly. The median age of the infected is 63 but most of those dying from the disease are older. The average age of those who died from the disease stands at 79.5, Bloomberg reported.

Italy, which is currently the European epicenter of the disease, has experienced the worst fatality rate in Europe with close to 3,000 deaths and more than 35,000 infected.

On Wednesday, Italy reported 475 new deaths from COVID-19, the highest one-day official toll of any nation since the first outbreak originated in China late last year.

[BlueCloud]

I wish there were more regular reports of the profile ( previous illnesses,etc) of people younger than 60 who end up with severe symptoms. I’m not in the elderly group and probably would not die if I catch the virus, but I’m still not fond of  the idea of being intubed to a ventilator for weeks.

[Mind]

I wish there were more regular reports of the profile ( previous illnesses,etc) of people younger than 60 who end up with severe symptoms. I’m not in the elderly group and probably would not die if I catch the virus, but I’m still not fond of  the idea of being intubed to a ventilator for weeks.

 

I second this request. I have tough time getting any data on younger victims or younger persons requiring hospitalizations. There are certainly younger people in every nation who have "underlying health conditions". There are many heavy smokers and drug addicts. It would be nice to know if these are the people more likely to be hospitalized.

 

The data in the U.S. is sparse. The only younger people (40s and 50s) that have died (up until fatalities reached 150, when I could no longer keep track) in the U.S. were those in "poor health" and it was only 2 that I could find.

 

Here is a story of 3 people from one family dying of the disease. No word on the health condition of the people. 1 was in their 70s. 1 was in their 50s. Not sure on the age of the other: https://www.usatoday...ays/2873716001/

Edited by Mind, 20 March 2020 - 05:37 PM.

[Mind]

Is there an antibody test for this thing --  or only PCR?

 

 If it's been around for a while, maybe indeed some of us had it already (like Mind and others).

Usually, an antibody test is simpler and cheaper than PCR and, hopefully, could be made for home use -?

 

New topic for this question: https://www.longecit...-antibody-test/

[Florin]

As usual, Ioannidis disagrees with all of the stats (but doesn't mention Italy).

 

A fiasco in the making? As the coronavirus pandemic takes hold, we are making decisions without reliable data
https://www.statnews...-reliable-data/

[HBRU]

Our italian data are the only "true" in the sense that all deaths are counted (if they are positive to coronavirus)... but mostly people with symptoms are tested (really a lot of people without symptoms or very light are around)

[HBRU]

We have a place "Vo' Euganeo" where all habitants haven been tested in a reliable way in different times...

[HBRU]

Scaring datas

http://www.parmatoda...-patologie.html

[pamojja]

Our italian data are the only "true" in the sense that all deaths are counted (if they are positive to coronavirus)... but mostly people with symptoms are tested (really a lot of people without symptoms or very light are around)

 

Some don't trust the test, because untill today the PCR-test hasn't been validated, as usually would have to be done to have it scientifically accepted, a Chinese study talks about 50% wrong positives.

 

Even the death count could be totally misleading. Because alledgedly there always have been up to 14% of coronavirus found (former studies), particular in those dying of viral pneumonia. This particular coronavirus may have already been widespread before, but not tested for. And without proper valitation of its test, those dying with a positive result could as well have died of one of the other about 86% percent of kind of viruses usually anyway found.
 

But statistically the most striking argument: None of the usual monitoring systems in place (at least in Europe) until now have found an increased excess in total mortality. The flu and pneumonia season compared to former years and calculated for whole countries is taking its usual death-toll.

 

Therefore more questions really, than facts which would support the certain disastrous effects of the drastic countermeasues on economies, and thereby the health and an real increase of excess total mortality-rate very soon.

Edited by pamojja, 21 March 2020 - 09:40 AM.

[Mind]

Because the number of cases is growing quickly, I can no longer verify that no healthy person under 70 has died of the disease in the U.S.. Given that it is the same disease that is striking Italy, it seems inevitable that some healthy people under 70 will die from the disease. There are a handful of cases in the U.S. now of people in their 50s and 60s dying from the disease, but as of now there is no data about the (prior) health status of the deceased.

Edited by Mind, 21 March 2020 - 05:08 PM.

[Mind]

WHO situation report from yesterday indicates a crude unadjusted mortality rate of 4.2% https://www.who.int/...vrsn=d2bb4f1f_2

[ymc]

Some don't trust the test, because untill today the PCR-test hasn't been validated, as usually would have to be done to have it scientifically accepted, a Chinese study talks about 50% wrong positives.

 

 

For deaths, they most likely have damaged lungs. So a lung CT scan can be used to double confirm the real cause. Antibody test from blood samples can be used for triple confirm.

[pamojja]

For deaths, they most likely have damaged lungs. So a lung CT scan can be used to double confirm the real cause. Antibody test from blood samples can be used for triple confirm.

 

Valitation of a test means:

 

 

Koch's postulates, first stated by the great German bacteriologist Robert Koch in the late 1800s, can simply be stated as:

• Purify the pathogen (e.g. virus) from many cases with a particular illness.
• Expose susceptible animals (obviously not humans) to the pathogen.
• Verify that the same illness is produced.
• Some add that you should also re-purify the pathogen, just to be sure that it really is creating the illness.

 

That means that a CT scan and Antibody test may too show possitive. But the virus found with PCR could still be a harmless bystander, like firefighters in case of a burning house. Which also wouldn't be taken the cause of the fire.

Edited by pamojja, 22 March 2020 - 10:32 AM.

[adamh]

I have felt sure as have many other people that china was lying big time about the numbers. Last I heard they were claiming only around 80 or 90k infections and maybe 2k deaths or some such. They said infections were leveling off and very few deaths now. I'm going to show how that is almost certainly not true and the real numbers are probably 100x higher if not more.

 

First of all, china is densely populated which leads to rapid transmission of disease. They are also low in access to sanitary facilities, they eat wild animals and lots of garbage, literally garbage. That is another subject but also the level of cigarette smoking is very high along with high levels of pollution which predispose the population to be vulnerable to lung disease. Out of an estimated 1.3 billion people they expect us to believe that only around 0.008% of the population contracted it and only a few thousand died from it? 

 

The truth is millions have it now in china probably 10s of millions if not 100s of millions and the deaths are almost certainly to be in the millions. What evidence do I have to back this up besides speculation? Its not all speculation, china has revealed that they have lost 21 million cell phone subscribers in the last few months. You have to have a cell phone in china, everyone has one. What happened to the 21 million who stopped? Could that be the level of deaths? It would be less than 2% of their population if so. Iran and italy have much higher rates so.

 

https://www.theepoch...ll_3281291.html

 

“The digitization level is very high in China. People can’t survive without a cellphone,” Tang Jingyuan, a U.S.-based China affairs commentator, told The Epoch Times on March 21. “Dealing with the government for pensions and social security, buying train tickets, shopping … no matter what people want to do, they are required to use cellphones.

“The Chinese regime requires all Chinese to use their cellphones to generate a health code. Only with a green health code are Chinese allowed to move in China now. It’s impossible for a person to cancel his cellphone.”

[mikeinnaples]

Former coworker of mine that lives in New York is on a ventilator now to keep him alive. He is 38 and was extremely fit, being both a gym rat and a 5k-10k runner. This is going to kill younger people, especially if health care systems get overwhelmed.

[HBRU]

It seems strangely the virus is mutating getting worst... Maybe at the beginning it was more adapted to asian genetics and now it is adapting to western genetics...

[Mind]

It seems strangely the virus is mutating getting worst... Maybe at the beginning it was more adapted to asian genetics and now it is adapting to western genetics...

 

Many people suspect that the communist government of China is still lying about the illness.

 

As was posted earlier, a Hong Kong team assessed the case fatality rate in China and came up with 1.4%. The Epoch Times suggests that it is higher: https://www.theepoch...ll_3281291.html

 

 

Edited by Mind, 23 March 2020 - 06:11 PM.

[kurdishfella]

Former coworker of mine that lives in New York is on a ventilator now to keep him alive. He is 38 and was extremely fit, being both a gym rat and a 5k-10k runner. This is going to kill younger people, especially if health care systems get overwhelmed.

Was he using PEDS/steroids? usually gym rats do that and just cause you look muscular/ripped on the outside does not mean you are healthy inside, steroids are very unhealthy. etc. did he have any diseases?

 

also regarding chinas numbers , see how slow their infections went up to 100k while the rest of the world hit 100k very easily.

Edited by kurdishfella, 23 March 2020 - 06:11 PM.

[Mind]

Former coworker of mine that lives in New York is on a ventilator now to keep him alive. He is 38 and was extremely fit, being both a gym rat and a 5k-10k runner. This is going to kill younger people, especially if health care systems get overwhelmed.

 

Italy has recorded 12 fatalities of people in their 30s. https://www.epicentr...23marzo ENG.pdf

 

If there is any good news to be had, at least in the latest update from Italy, it indicates that the percentage of patients that need "critical" care, has dropped below 5%, and the number of those with severe symptoms has dropped a couple of percentage points. Perhaps this suggests that the most vulnerable victims have already succumbed to the disease, and now more robust patients are adding to the statistics.

Edited by Mind, 23 March 2020 - 06:19 PM.

[mikeinnaples]

Was he using PEDS/steroids? usually gym rats do that and just cause you look muscular/ripped on the outside does not mean you are healthy inside, steroids are very unhealthy. etc. did he have any diseases?

 

also regarding chinas numbers , see how slow their infections went up to 100k while the rest of the world hit 100k very easily.

 

Doubtful, he wasn't a body builder. Also no, gym rats don't usually do that. If you said bodybuilders usually do that, then yes sure. Fitness freaks generally don't.  I am a self identified gym rat / fitness freak myself and the only thing I put in my body for performance is creatine. No idea of his personal medical history. Like I said he was a coworker, not a family member.

[adamh]

Many people "suspect" china is lying through its teeth about the outbreak as it often does about things that reflect on its leadership skills. As I posted before, there has been a 21 million drop in cell phone subscriptions in jan and feb of this year in china. Some may be due to having 2 numbers and not needing it anymore since times are tough. More likely is death represents a substantial portion of those 21 mill

 

It looks like china is going to have to admit they still have a problem. The recent story line about few or no new infections and few or no deaths is not going over very well. Sensing they will have to admit a much bigger outbreak and many more deaths than they have already, they are preparing the new story line. They are blaming it on "imported" cases of the chinese flu. Yes, they are blaming visitors from other countries bringing it in after they defeated it already in china. They also blame the usa for creating it and sending it to china in the first place.

 

https://www.dailymai...reak-China.html

 

Beijing's leading doctor warns of a NEW coronavirus outbreak in China after the country reported its first case of someone 'catching the illness from a person returning from abroad'

[ymc]

Took 5 days instead of 3 to double deaths outside China. In a sense, it is a good news but then 6,400 deaths in five days is a lot...

 

13281/(13281+29270) = 31.21%

 

Mortality rate is increasing. This indicates that deaths significantly outpace recoveries.

 

Good to see consecutive two days of falls in new deaths and new cases in Italy. Supposedly lockdown since March 8 for Lombardy and March 10 for the whole Italy is working now.

 

Spain has deaths for teens and twenty-something. It also has ICU numbers which show the true damage of coronavirus. Its age distribution is similar to Italy, so it is likely only testing people with symptoms.

https://www.mscbs.go...52_COVID-19.pdf

[BlueCloud]

It’s hard to find information on the number of victims less than 60 years old in France, but i saw at least 2, just browsing a local newspaper : a 44 yo psychiatry nurse male, the article mentions that he suffered from an immune system issue ( no details on what it is) http://www.leparisie...020-8286759.php and a 45 yo male security guard in a supermarket ( can’t find the link, sorry ) , who was described as perfectly healthy and in shape.

[xEva]

A different approach is taken by Russia. They advocate social distancing and advised old people to stay home and arranged for groceries deliveries for them. They bragged that they have 400,000 ventilators and tons of PPE.and are building a huge facility near Moscow (a la China).

 

Looks like they decided that they cannot afford a lockdown and are planing to weather it out.

 

oh yeah and they were one of the first to close border with China and screen and quarantine all arrivals.

[Florin]

COVID-19 deaths in Italy: 6,820
Lower respiratory infection deaths in 2017 in Italy: 13,167

[pamojja]

There isn't yet any other region like Lombardy and Wunhan:

    Region 	    Deaths 	
                        # 	
Lombardy 	 	4,178 	
Emilia Romagna 	 	985 	
Veneto 	         	216 	
Piemonte 	 	374 	
Marche 	         	231 	
Tuscany 	 	129 	
Liguria 	 	231 	
Lazio 	         	80 	
Campania 	 	56 	
Trentino 	 	56 	
Puglia 	         	44 	
Friuli V.G. 	 	64 	
South Tyrol 	 	38 	
Sicily 	         	20 	
Abruzzo 	 	46 	
Umbria 	         	19 	
Valle d'Aosta 	 	19 	
Sardinia 	 	15 	
Calabria 	 	10 	
Basilicata 	 	1 	
Molise 	         	8 	
Total 	         	6,820 	

Note: Data as of 2020/03/24 17:00 CET

https://en.wikipedia...taly#Statistics
 

[Mind]

COVID-19 deaths in Italy: 6,820
Lower respiratory infection deaths in 2017 in Italy: 13,167

 

To put this data into better context it would be good to know the number of (non-corona) lower respiratory deaths in Italy over the last 12 months, and add that to the 6,820