1539 replies to this topic

[Hebbeh]

https://www.theguard...vid-19-symptoms

Study of twins reveals genetic effect on Covid-19 symptoms

Scientists find genetic factors explain 50% of differences between people’s symptoms

Symptoms of Covid-19 appear to be partly down to genetic makeup, researchers at King’s College London have discovered.

The finding is based on data collected through the Covid-19 Symptom Tracker app, launched by the team last month.

While members of the public are encouraged to use the app to track how they feel day to day, the team also asked thousands of twins in the UK, who were already part of another research project, to use the app and record whether they had symptoms or not. The team employed machine-learning algorithms, together with data from the 2.7 million app users – many of whom have been tested for coronavirus – to work out the combination of symptoms that indicate an individual is likely to have Covid-19.

The team then focused on data from just over 2,600 twins to try to establish whether the symptoms experienced by those predicted to have Covid-19 was related to genetic makeup.


“The idea was to basically look at the similarities in symptoms or non-symptoms between the identical twins, who share 100% of their genes, and the non-identical twins, who only share half of their genes,” Prof Tim Spector, one of the scientists leading the endeavour, told the Guardian. “If there is a genetic factor in expressing the symptoms then we’d see a greater similarity in the identical [twins] than the non-identical [twins] and that is basically what we showed.”

The study, which has not yet been peer reviewed, took into account whether the twins were in the same household, with the results revealing that genetic factors explained about 50% of the differences between people’s symptoms of Covid-19.

More specifically, the team found a substantial genetic influence for the symptoms of fever, diarrhoea, delirium, and losses of taste and smell. By contrast, a hoarse voice, a cough, skipped meals, chest pain, and abdominal pain were not linked to genetic makeup.

“This disease is very weird, the way it has a very different presentation in the population in different people – what we are showing is that isn’t random,” Spector said. “It is not mainly due to where you live or who you have seen; a lot of it is something innate about you.

“I think you can say that your likelihood of getting it at all, or getting it severely, is under some genetic control.”

Rest of article at posted link

[Florin]

Well you're operating under the assumption people will want to go along with SENS and cryopreservation.  A lot of people may be against that.  If you're going to live that long, it's not sustainable for everyone to have kids, for example, and that's a thing.

Yes and no. I was primarily replying to Hebbeh's amazement at the idea that people on this site would trade finances over life. And then I pointed out that everyone else should also be concerned about the slow down in medical research, even if they don't take SENS seriously.

A more general point about trading finances over life is that everyone does this all of the time. Millions die due to car accidents and air pollution every year, yet no one seems to care enough to shut down everything until these problems are fixed. In the context of medical research, it's trading a bunch of lives for another bunch of lives. And I doubt that this tradeoff has been carefully considered.

Kids: There's always going to be a hard limit on the number of entities per volume of space.
 

You're also not realizing that saving lives may also save the economy.  Some of the eminent SENS researchers may be in their 70s, and if we lose just one of them to COVID, we lose decades of wisdom.  That wisdom can't just be gotten back the easy way.  So in a way, I could definitely see a net positive utility coming out of the temporary lock-downs—no matter really the realm of consideration.

Yeah, lockdowns might be a net positive for the reasons you mentioned (although I kinda doubt that anyone is irreplaceable, even Big Beard, and in a worst case scenario, just 20% of genius geezers would die anyway), but the evidence to date suggests that lockdowns a net negative for medical research.

 

What I'd like to see is for medical research to be considered as an essential service. In that case, lockdowns would have less of a negative effect.

[Florin]

https://www.wsj.com/...lan-11587998993

The Secret Group of Scientists and Billionaires Pushing Trump on a Covid-19 Plan

 

The good: Links to FasterCures' COVID-19 treatments tracker and proposes steps to safely reduce social distancing in order to reopen the economy.

 

In this proposal, we describe a policy that requires individuals returning to schools and work to take three key steps: 1) to report symptoms daily before working; 2) to participate in frequent virus (PCR) testing; and 3) to wear certain personal protective equipment (PPE).

 

The bad: No mention of any broad-spectrum antiviral or the development of better PPE for the public.

 

The ugly: Their logo.

[gamesguru]

Kids: There's always going to be a hard limit on the number of entities per volume of space.

Yeah, lockdowns might be a net positive for the reasons you mentioned (although I kinda doubt that anyone is irreplaceable, even Big Beard, and in a worst case scenario, just 20% of genius geezers would die anyway), but the evidence to date suggests that lockdowns a net negative for medical research.

 

The kids thing is just meaning it would require a radical departure from normal life.  Some people just don't believe in it.

 

I still think this is a narrow outlook.  It's not just life extensionist researchers directly.. research in chemistry, material physics, computing, and seemingly unrelated fields of biology all play together into this grand dance.

 

Lose a single cultivated professor in any of those fields and the whole ecosystem could suffer.  Many of these older professors are still passing along their wisdom, and not in the best of health.

[ymc]

Singapore's foreign workers dormitories look like this:

 

No wonder coronavirus is spreading like wild fire. I think other countries need to monitor similar setups (e.g. hostels) to prevent history from repeating itself.

[gamesguru]

Refugee camp, Greek islanders (March 2020)

 

[Hip]

Coronavirus may be FAR deadlier than we think: The virus could kill up to 8-times more patients than official fatality estimates say. 

 

UC Berkeley researchers used data on the number of 'excess' deaths in Italy to estimate the likely fatality rate there. Based on that data they predict a fatality rate of 0.85 percent for Italy and 0.5% for New York City.

 

[Florin]

The kids thing is just meaning it would require a radical departure from normal life.  Some people just don't believe in it.

 

I doubt that having one less kid is all that radical. This is already happening today, and increasing numbers of people are choosing not to have kids at all. At any rate, almost no one (except for weirdos like us) is going to take action (or even seriously think) about this stuff before the magic immortality elixirs become widely available.
 

I still think this is a narrow outlook.  It's not just life extensionist researchers directly.. research in chemistry, material physics, computing, and seemingly unrelated fields of biology all play together into this grand dance.
 
Lose a single cultivated professor in any of those fields and the whole ecosystem could suffer.  Many of these older professors are still passing along their wisdom, and not in the best of health.

Nah, I have to agree with Big Beard: the only real problem is money. To get SENS off the ground, further development in unrelated fields isn't necessary. If you have a strong argument why that might not be the case, I'd like to hear it. Other approaches like genomics might be more affected by developments in unrelated fields like computing, but I don't think those approaches will amount to much anyway.

 

If someone like Kirkland dies, that would slow down things a bit but not by a lot. It doesn't really take any geniuses to work on SENS, and there's usually more than a single individual working on the same project. It's all about having enough money to fund fairly straightforward stuff.

Edited by Florin, 28 April 2020 - 03:33 AM.

[Hebbeh]

Never gonna happen: Everyone is betting that medical technology will significantly reduce or eliminate all major age-related diseases in their life times. Otherwise, medical research would not exist. Some of us just happen to bet that SENS is a better way to accomplish the same goals. But apparently, you have a crystal ball that says medical research is bound to fail forever.

 

What's your vision of SENS?

 

Living to 100 with extended health span?  (because I look around and that is already here).

Living to 120 with extended health span?

Living to 150 with extended health span?

Living to 200 with extended health span?

Living forever?

 

I'm 63 and have fathered a 22 month old daughter.  I'll be 80 by the time I get her off to college.  I can do anything most of the guys I know half my age.  The only thing I see standing in the way of a healthy 100 is COVID-19 or an accident.  And I look around and see I'm not the only one.  Richard Gere just fathered a child at 70.  But I know I'm not going to live forever.  What can you promise me?

[gamesguru]

I doubt that having one less kid is all that radical.
 

Nah, I have to agree with Big Beard: the only real problem is money. To get SENS off the ground, further development in unrelated fields isn't necessary. If you have a strong argument why that might not be the case, I'd like to hear it. Other approaches like genomics might be more affected by developments in unrelated fields like computing, but I don't think those approaches will amount to much anyway.

 

If someone like Kirkland dies, that would slow down things a bit but not by a lot. It doesn't really take any geniuses to work on SENS, and there's usually more than a single individual working on the same project. It's all about having enough money to fund fairly straightforward stuff.

 

I'm just saying the kid thing, not everyone may be on board.  You're assuming like "this is the best morality"... well maybe for you, others may prefer something more traditional.  You haven't objectively shown this should apply to all, if it's possible to show such a thing.  It's just this line of reasoning: it applies to me, the lockdown is hindering it, therefore poor me.

 

I would argue the end-game of SENS depends on things far outside your view, like nanotech, and that clearly depends on a wide range of disciplines.  So while today it may not feel losing a mathematician would set you back, in the grand scheme of things, it could be a very subtle, two decade set back.  Most inventions come by jovial accidents in the laboratory, not some careful and regimented observance of a narrowly defined field.  How long would the invention of light bulbs been postponed if Edison had died before finishing it?  What if Michael Faraday had never put together his ideas on electromagnetism?  Scrub any one of these giants from the history books, and inventions, meetings of minds, ideas could have all been pushed back decades.  There is a domino or butterfly effect.

 

I just don't buy this idea that any academic discipline is independent from the rest.  Philosophy and math went hand and hand as far back as 500 BC.

 

Probably on any given day a geriatric researcher uses dozens of diagnostic techniques, pieces of chemistry equipment that he is indebted to previous generations.  Perhaps they are new technologies.  Now if they are lost, like Newton was lost during the European plague, it is quite clear science would be set back in an unpredictable domino cascade.  It was much better on the whole that he remain in isolation, indeed, he made use of this time alone to let his thoughts roam free.

[Mind]

 

Coronavirus may be FAR deadlier than we think: The virus could kill up to 8-times more patients than official fatality estimates say. 

 

UC Berkeley researchers used data on the number of 'excess' deaths in Italy to estimate the likely fatality rate there. Based on that data they predict a fatality rate of 0.85 percent for Italy and 0.5% for New York City.

 

 

I am still wondering a little about the excess deaths.

 

What would be your estimate of the contribution to excess deaths statistics from fear, panic, depression, and loneliness?

 

I think these could be especially pertinent with elderly people - who are the vast majority of COVID cases.

 

I have provided emotional support for elderly friends and relatives several times in my life. The typical person who is in the last year of their life have "extra" support from friends and relatives, regular physical contact, etc... Sometimes they are assisted with physical therapy and reminders on medication from family members and friends. With the coronavirus lockdowns, all of that "extra" emotional and physical support is gone. All that is left is "regular" support by over-worked staff dressed in PPE. Could depression, loneliness, panic and fear be producing a lot of excess deaths? We know that officials in Spain, Italy, Belgium, and New York (the world's "hotspots" and the majority of world fatalities) are adding many thousands, maybe tens of thousands of presumptive cases...classifying people as COVID deaths without a positive coronavirus test.

 

It is highly unlikely it could account for all of the excess deaths, but I think some of the deaths that would have occurred later in the year, are happening now, especially in Italy, where old people could not get much medical care after the first week of the outbreak.

[Hip]

I am still wondering a little about the excess deaths.

 

What would be your estimate of the contribution to excess deaths statistics from fear, panic, depression, and loneliness?

 

My first thought is to look at Sweden, as this is one of the few countries that still has no lockdown, and life continues relatively normally.

 

I found this New York Times article on excess deaths in various countries, and if you have access, you can see in the graphs that the excess deaths in Sweden during pandemic are comparable to other countries (although Sweden's excess deaths appear a bit lower than most other countries, so maybe it is doing a bit better because of no lockdown).

[Florin]

Meta says: This is getting waaay OT. The mods might want to create a separate "Consequences of Coronavirus on Society" (or whatever) thread and dump these posts there.
 

What's your vision of SENS?
 
Living to 100 with extended health span?  (because I look around and that is already here).
Living to 120 with extended health span?
Living to 150 with extended health span?
Living to 200 with extended health span?
Living forever?
 
I'm 63 and have fathered a 22 month old daughter.  I'll be 80 by the time I get her off to college.  I can do anything most of the guys I know half my age.  The only thing I see standing in the way of a healthy 100 is COVID-19 or an accident.  And I look around and see I'm not the only one.  Richard Gere just fathered a child at 70.  But I know I'm not going to live forever.  What can you promise me?

 
Big Beard says: There's a 50% of reaching LEV for 40–50 year olds and that chance progressively diminishes for older people. Individuals that have better health for their age might have a slightly better chance.

I say: Over 60? Hooboy. One might be able to increase those chances a bit by using stuff that are currently in clinical trials like senolytics and other kinds of supps. Big Beard's chart of LEV survival curves is also informative. Plan B is cryo.

Edited by Florin, 28 April 2020 - 08:11 PM.

[Mind]

https://www.theguard...vid-19-symptoms

Study of twins reveals genetic effect on Covid-19 symptoms

Scientists find genetic factors explain 50% of differences between people’s symptoms

Symptoms of Covid-19 appear to be partly down to genetic makeup, researchers at King’s College London have discovered.

The finding is based on data collected through the Covid-19 Symptom Tracker app, launched by the team last month.

While members of the public are encouraged to use the app to track how they feel day to day, the team also asked thousands of twins in the UK, who were already part of another research project, to use the app and record whether they had symptoms or not. The team employed machine-learning algorithms, together with data from the 2.7 million app users – many of whom have been tested for coronavirus – to work out the combination of symptoms that indicate an individual is likely to have Covid-19.

The team then focused on data from just over 2,600 twins to try to establish whether the symptoms experienced by those predicted to have Covid-19 was related to genetic makeup.


“The idea was to basically look at the similarities in symptoms or non-symptoms between the identical twins, who share 100% of their genes, and the non-identical twins, who only share half of their genes,” Prof Tim Spector, one of the scientists leading the endeavour, told the Guardian. “If there is a genetic factor in expressing the symptoms then we’d see a greater similarity in the identical [twins] than the non-identical [twins] and that is basically what we showed.”

The study, which has not yet been peer reviewed, took into account whether the twins were in the same household, with the results revealing that genetic factors explained about 50% of the differences between people’s symptoms of Covid-19.

More specifically, the team found a substantial genetic influence for the symptoms of fever, diarrhoea, delirium, and losses of taste and smell. By contrast, a hoarse voice, a cough, skipped meals, chest pain, and abdominal pain were not linked to genetic makeup.

“This disease is very weird, the way it has a very different presentation in the population in different people – what we are showing is that isn’t random,” Spector said. “It is not mainly due to where you live or who you have seen; a lot of it is something innate about you.

“I think you can say that your likelihood of getting it at all, or getting it severely, is under some genetic control.”

Rest of article at posted link

 

So they didn't test any of the twins? 

[Mind]

The corona virus has been around long enough in my state and region for "context".

 

Patient zero was detected in Wisconsin during the last week of January, so it has been in the state for at least 3 months.

 

The growth rate of the virus has been linear, lately increasing by about 200 cases per day. The case fatality rate is 4.7%

 

The vast majority of cases and deaths have occurred in denser urban areas. The vast majority of deaths (over 86%) have been in people who are over 60. No data on other health factors, but local reports indicate a lot of the other deaths have been in people in poor health or the obese (Wisconsin has a higher than average percentage of obese people, not the worst in the country, but higher than average). 1 out of every 3 cases in people over 90 have resulted in fatalities (worse than Italy).

 

I live in an urban area of about 65,000. There have been 17 confirmed cases in my county. and 1 death. Around the less densely populated areas of Wisconsin there have been a couple hundred cases and a handful of deaths (all elderly, as far as I am aware).

 

The interesting thing is that the case count has increased in my county by about 1 or 2 per week for the last 10 weeks or so. Testing in February was about 5 to 10 people per day, but has now increased up to 30 to 50 per day. No matter the amount of testing, there are a couple new cases per week. So far no acceleration.

 

Which is strange.

 

Obviously it is being spread around, since there are a couple of new cases per week. There is a moderate level of quarantine as "non-essential" businesses were closed since mid March. However, the essential businesses have been literally packed since mid-March. I went to a home improvement store last weekend and I could hardly find a parking space. About 10-20%of people are wearing masks. The grocery store today had long lines. People generally make half-hearted efforts to stay 6 feet away from each other.

 

What is going on?

 

1. The coronavirus is not as infectious as people anticipated

2. There is a different strain in parts of Wisconsin that is not very deadly

3. Everyone had it already and there is a significant amount of herd immunity

 

I had a respiratory illness in early February, lasted 2-3 weeks, and I still have throat damage. I passed it to everyone at work. Many people around my city think they had the same thing. No antibody testing as of yet, but if it is similar to the antibody testing that has been conducted Germany, California, many other spots, then it would make sense why my part of the world has not been inundated with cases.

Edited by Mind, 28 April 2020 - 08:57 PM.

[Florin]

My first thought is to look at Sweden, as this is one of the few countries that still has no lockdown, and life continues relatively normally.

 

I found this New York Times article on excess deaths in various countries, and if you have access, you can see in the graphs that the excess deaths in Sweden during pandemic are comparable to other countries (although Sweden's excess deaths appear a bit lower than most other countries, so maybe it is doing a bit better because of no lockdown).

 

Actually, there is semi-voluntary social distancing in Sweden. If businesses like restaurants don't do it right, they're closed down. Nursing homes are on lockdown. But there's still no mask-wearing recommendations, as far as I know.

[Hip]

One very intriguing finding is that the number of patients presenting in hospital emergency departments with heart attacks, stroke and appendicitis is dramatically down during the pandemic:

 

ERs are seeing up to 60% fewer heart attack patients as those infected with coronavirus fill hospital beds but cardiac emergencies mysteriously 'disappear'

 

Concern as heart attack and stroke patients delay seeking help

 

 

Hospital cardiologists instead of being busy with emergency case patients are currently twiddling their thumbs, waiting for some heart attack patients to come in to treat.

 

One theory for this decrease is that heart attack or stroke patients are scared to go to hospital because of a fear of catching coronavirus. Or perhaps heart attack and stroke patients may not want to put extra strain on the hospitals, so don't call an ambulance.

 

 

But I think there is a better explanation: because heart attacks, strokes and appendicitis are linked to catching an acute infection, these medical events may be dramatically decreased because lockdown has resulted in people catching fewer infections of all types, not just coronavirus.

 

Heart attacks are linked to acute enterovirus infections, and one study found that 40% of all fatal heart attack cases show evidence of enterovirus infection in the heart in autopsy.   

 

Edited by Hip, 28 April 2020 - 10:06 PM.

[Florin]

I'm 63

The only thing I see standing in the way of a healthy 100 is COVID-19 or an accident.

 
More like 3 or 4 COVID-19s between now and 100, if you're lucky and we don't have other pandemics.
 
10 years x 0.1% average flu fatality rate = 1% average flu fatality rate per decade which is the same average fatality rate of COVID-19 (I haven't checked, so I could be wrong, but I'm assuming that the fatality rate for oldsters might be similar)

Edited by Florin, 28 April 2020 - 10:13 PM.

[gamesguru]

Patient zero was detected in Wisconsin during the last week of January, so it has been in the state for at least 3 months.

 

The growth rate of the virus has been linear, lately increasing by about 200 cases per day. The case fatality rate is 4.7%

The interesting thing is that the case count has increased in my county by about 1 or 2 per week for the last 10 weeks or so.

 

Which is strange.

 

What is going on?

 

Don't underestimate the role of fear and cautiousness in slowing the spread.  It's likely the Rt value (transmission rate) has been reduced close to 1, so the exponential curve is very well approximated locally by a straight line.  You may not see an explosion any time soon.  Likely when Wisconsin eases the restrictions, you will see a second wave slowly erupt.  I think it could be too soon for herd immunity in a rural-ish place.

 

Antibody tests are still very error prone.  I would try to find someone who is still sick from your infection and encourage them to be mRNA tested.  Honestly, in my books, February is still early for middle America and it could have just as easily been the cold or flu.

 

I would surmise the actual death rate is lower than 5% for you—more like 1.5%.  Cases in immediate family are not being officially (mRNA) diagnosed, and there are other asymptomatic cases, and false negatives (because the person went too soon or too late in the infection for it to show up)

[Florin]

I'm just saying the kid thing, not everyone may be on board.  You're assuming like "this is the best morality"... well maybe for you, others may prefer something more traditional.  You haven't objectively shown this should apply to all, if it's possible to show such a thing.  It's just this line of reasoning: it applies to me, the lockdown is hindering it, therefore poor me.

If you're talking about a worst case scenario, then yeah, people that'll want more kids than is sustainable will have to give up their immortality. But that's at least hundreds of years in the future and no one is going to take that possibility seriously enough today to not want medical research to continue as fast as possible.
 

I would argue the end-game of SENS depends on things far outside your view, like nanotech, and that clearly depends on a wide range of disciplines.  So while today it may not feel losing a mathematician would set you back, in the grand scheme of things, it could be a very subtle, two decade set back.  Most inventions come by jovial accidents in the laboratory, not some careful and regimented observance of a narrowly defined field.  How long would the invention of light bulbs been postponed if Edison had died before finishing it?  What if Michael Faraday had never put together his ideas on electromagnetism?  Scrub any one of these giants from the history books, and inventions, meetings of minds, ideas could have all been pushed back decades.  There is a domino or butterfly effect.
 
I just don't buy this idea that any academic discipline is independent from the rest.  Philosophy and math went hand and hand as far back as 500 BC.
 
Probably on any given day a geriatric researcher uses dozens of diagnostic techniques, pieces of chemistry equipment that he is indebted to previous generations.  Perhaps they are new technologies.  Now if they are lost, like Newton was lost during the European plague, it is quite clear science would be set back in an unpredictable domino cascade.  It was much better on the whole that he remain in isolation, indeed, he made use of this time alone to let his thoughts roam free.

I'd like to see an argument as to why all of that stuff is necessary, not just (maybe) nice to have. This is the kind of argument I'm looking for: if we don't have drexlerian nanotech (or whatever), we won't be able to get rid of 7-ketocholesterol from foam cells (or whatever) because of reasons X, Y, Z.

Edited by Florin, 28 April 2020 - 11:12 PM.

[gamesguru]

I'd like to see an argument as to why all of that stuff is necessary, not just (maybe) nice to have. This is the kind of argument I'm looking for: if we don't have drexlerian nanotech (or whatever), we won't be able to get rid of 7-ketocholesterol from foam cells (or whatever) because of reasons X, Y, Z.

 

I don't know man I already made that argument.

 

If you look at the original link to the reddit post, they get into a discussion there about how the consequences to the economy are surprisingly far reaching.

 

They use the example of how a lot of top surgeons' skills aren't transferable.  So if they get lost, people end up waiting in line and just dying for heart surgery they never get.  That, and a lot of other things, add up to a shitty 3rd world experience that is less conducive to academia.  You could choose between the Great Depression or the Dark Ages.. one lasted just a decade, the other centuries.

 

So yeah, if you just want to open the economy up and see the consequences of letting 3% die and letting the health care systems being overwhelmed long-term and many, many indirect deaths and slowdowns, then sure go ahead with the experiment.  But I would even challenge the idea that SENS research has stopped.  And I would challenge the idea that top researchers aren't irreplaceable.

[Hip]

Germany seeing an increase in COVID-19 cases after lifting some of its lockdown restrictions on 20 April. It may have to restore a stricter lockdown if cases continue to rise.

[Hebbeh]

So they didn't test any of the twins? 

 

I can't access the full study either but the article indicates that it was self reported data collected via the "Covid-19 Symptom Tracker app" discussed here.  However, the article also stated: "The team employed machine-learning algorithms, together with data from the 2.7 million app users – many of whom have been tested for coronavirus – to work out the combination of symptoms that indicate an individual is likely to have Covid-19" which indicates that some percentage of the 2.7 million users (many) involved in studying symptoms had been tested.  However the study didn't do any direct testing but relied on reported data taking into consideration any prior testing reported and massaged the total reported data with "machine-learning algorithms" which in the study abstract stated: "a symptom-based algorithm predicting true infection derived in app users tested for SARS-CoV-2" which would indicate that the 2633 twins picked out of the 2.7 million app users had been tested at some point.  They apparently felt the results had a strong correlation to 50% genetic factors involved in symptom severity with the author stating:  “It is not mainly due to where you live or who you have seen; a lot of it is something innate about you. I think you can say that your likelihood of getting it at all, or getting it severely, is under some genetic control.”   So yes, it would appear that the twins picked for the study had been tested.

[Florin]

I don't know man I already made that argument.

 

All I've seen is speculation. For instance, what could drexlerian nanotech do that the SENS stuff we know about today can never do?
 

If you look at the original link to the reddit post, they get into a discussion there about how the consequences to the economy are surprisingly far reaching.
 
They use the example of how a lot of top surgeons' skills aren't transferable.  So if they get lost, people end up waiting in line and just dying for heart surgery they never get.  That, and a lot of other things, add up to a shitty 3rd world experience that is less conducive to academia.  You could choose between the Great Depression or the Dark Ages.. one lasted just a decade, the other centuries.
 
So yeah, if you just want to open the economy up and see the consequences of letting 3% die and letting the health care systems being overwhelmed long-term and many, many indirect deaths and slowdowns, then sure go ahead with the experiment.  But I would even challenge the idea that SENS research has stopped.  And I would challenge the idea that top researchers aren't irreplaceable.

 

I don't have a strong opinion about how and when to reopen the entire economy. But as I mentioned before, medical research has gotta be clearly designated (I've seen mixed messages about this) as an essential service everywhere. Otherwise, the lockdowns have the potential to become a net negative.

 

An economic depression (or a very long recession that does the same damage) could be in the cards regardless what happens (2 million dead vs tens of millions out of work) but not a dark age, since:

• Most of the over-60 are near retirement or already retired
• The worst-case fatality rate is still less than a quarter of all oldsters
• Most important, instrumental knowledge is recorded

I haven't seen almost any significant amount of non-transferable skills or knowledge in relation to SENS or other medical research. I'd hate to lose Big Beard though, but the chance of that happening is really low. Lab work and clinical trials almost always involve teams in which anyone can be replaced without losing irreplaceable expertise.
 

 

Edited by Florin, 29 April 2020 - 02:32 AM.

[gamesguru]

What could drexlerian nanotech do that the SENS stuff we know about today can never do?
 

I haven't seen almost any significant amount of non-transferable skills or knowledge in relation to SENS or other medical research. I'd hate to lose Big Beard though, but the chance of that happening is really low. Lab work and clinical trials almost always involve teams in which anyone can be replaced without losing irreplaceable expertise.

 

I'm not going to say that one place is better or more fruitful, but you just never know where genius will leap out of.  If Newton had died in the plague, it's quite possible we would have been stuck on Algebra for longer.
 

SENS is probably no different than any other community, in that it depends on the innovation and productivity of many other industries, in that many of the most valuable and pivotal members are in their 60s.  And the best way to approach the situation is not by blindly opening business in the face of a deadly new pathogen.  Wait til we get it under control.  Even if you open, you're going to have a hard time getting lab equipment, reagents, because a lot of the postal service is shut down and production is slowing.  But don't try to swim upstream you'll just get eaten by sharks.

 

You're arguing for our solidarity, for autonomy.  That's great, it means we can keep going despite adversity.  But it's no excuse to underestimate the value of an individual life.  It's no reason for reckless defiance in the face of fact.

 

University of Washington Pathology Professor Dies of COVID-19

Stephen Schwartz, known for his work on the vascular system, is the first person associated with the university to succumb to infection with SARS-CoV-2.

 

Longtime University of Washington faculty member Stephen Schwartz died on Tuesday (March 17) from COVID-19, the disease caused by the novel coronavirus, the Seattle Times reports.

UW MEDICINE

 

“We are deeply saddened that faculty member Professor Stephen Schwartz passed away due to a COVID-19 infection,” the University of Washington Department of Pathology tweeted yesterday (March 18) afternoon. “He has left a lasting imprint on our department, our university, and the broader scientific community and will be greatly missed.”

 

Schwartz spent his career at the University of Washington (UW), starting with his residency in the Department of Pathology from 1967 to 1972. He joined the faculty a year later as an assistant professor, and became a full professor in 1984.

 

Charles Alpers, interim chair of the pathology department, shared the news with the UW faculty yesterday in an email. “Steve had a distinguished career as an investigator in the field of vascular biology,” Alpers wrote, according to the Times. “He is rightfully considered a giant amongst investigators of the biology of smooth muscle cells and the structure of blood vessels.”

 

“He will be sorely missed by generations of vascular biologists and pathologists,” Bernadette Englert, executive officer of the North American Vascular Biology Organization, which Schwartz cofounded, writes on the society’s website.

 

In addition to his appointment in the pathology department, Schwartz was an adjunct professor in the bioengineering and medicine departments, which Alpers says was “reflective of his many collaborative relationships with faculty and other departments in our medical school and in the world.”

 

UW’s student newspaper, The Daily, reports that Schwartz’s death appears to be the first COVID-19-related death tied to UW.

 

“Stephen Schwartz was a giant in vascular biology and a mentor to countless faculty and trainees, including myself,” UW biologist Kelly Stevens tweeted. “He will be deeply missed.”

[Florin]

I'm not going to say that one place is better or more fruitful, but you just never know where genius will leap out of.  If Newton had died in the plague, it's quite possible we would have been stuck on Algebra for longer.

So, you don't know. Well, I speculate too: maybe the coronavirus, if allowed to run rampant, could kill off evil (or careless) "geniuses" like Fauci that would've otherwise caused a worse pandemic in the future via gain-of-function research.
 

SENS is probably no different than any other community, in that it depends on the innovation and productivity of many other industries, in that many of the most valuable and pivotal members are in their 60s.  And the best way to approach the situation is not by blindly opening business in the face of a deadly new pathogen.  Wait til we get it under control.  Even if you open, you're going to have a hard time getting lab equipment, reagents, because a lot of the postal service is shut down and production is slowing.  But don't try to swim upstream you'll just get eaten by sharks.

 

The best way to approach the situation is to designate medical research as essential, because it is. If there'll be a big need for supplies in industries that aren't currently deemed to be essential they can simply be reclassified as essential. And no, the postal service isn't shut down.

 

University of Washington Pathology Professor Dies of COVID-19
Stephen Schwartz, known for his work on the vascular system, is the first person associated with the university to succumb to infection with SARS-CoV-2.

 
What irreplaceable skills did this guy have? I suspect little to none.

Edited by Florin, 29 April 2020 - 08:11 PM.

[gamesguru]

What irreplaceable skills did this guy have? I suspect little to none.

 

Don't you think it's a bit naive to suppose someone is only worth shutting down the economy over if they have some "irreplaceable skills"?  Probably no one is truly irreplaceable.  That doesn't mean they're not extremely productive, lively to have a chat with, and exceedingly rare and awesome.

 

It's also not so simple to designate research an essential activity.  It is often tied to the university, or other corporate support offices.

[Florin]

Don't you think it's a bit naive to suppose someone is only worth shutting down the economy over if they have some "irreplaceable skills"?  Probably no one is truly irreplaceable.  That doesn't mean they're not extremely productive, lively to have a chat with, and exceedingly rare and awesome.

 
The idea was that it might be a net negative for irreplaceable geniuses to die off, but it seems that you don't quite buy into that anymore. So, we agree.
 

It's also not so simple to designate research an essential activity.  It is often tied to the university, or other corporate support offices.

 
If the flunkies from the post office can do it, the geniuses of logistics and organization in academia and the corporate world should be able to as well.

[Florin]

Total mortality over time might be a better way to monitor this pandemic than any other kind of mortality stat.

 

EuroMOMO monitors European mortality. It seems that Sweden isn't doing too bad, and in fact, its death rate has peaked and is going down. Several other countries' death rates are even below their own average.

 

https://www.euromomo...raphs-and-maps/

Edited by Florin, 30 April 2020 - 02:50 AM.

[gamesguru]

Sweden isn't doing too bad, and in fact, it's [sic] death rate has peaked and is going down.