1539 replies to this topic

[Florin]

What's the real death rate for COVID-19 in the United States? Beats me, but here's the next best thing: excess mortality stats from the CDC (similar to the European stats above). It's a good approximation and can place a strong upper bound on the number of deaths caused by COVID-19.

 

CDC (excess mortality since 1/1/2020): 66k
JH, UofW, UofV, SCMP, Worldometer: 61k
CDC, ECDC, KFF, OWD: 58k
TCTP: 55k
WHO: 51k

 

https://www.cdc.gov/...cess_deaths.htm
https://www.cidrap.u...19/maps-visuals
https://ourworldinda...-19?country=USA

[albedo]

Worlds of good epidemiology science, wisdom and humanity by Larry Brilliant to consider for now and the future. Well done Buck to invite him as well also others in the Covid-19 series. Recommended.

https://buck2020.ext...arry-brilliant/

[hotbit]

COVID-19 with prof. Chris Whitty (UK COVID-19 response force)

 

 

•30 Apr 2020

 

https://www.youtube....h?v=3BdPKpWbxTg

[hotbit]

So, you don't know. Well, I speculate too: maybe the coronavirus, if allowed to run rampant, could kill off evil (or careless) "geniuses" like Fauci that would've otherwise caused a worse pandemic in the future via gain-of-function research.
 

 

Now this is interesting. SARS-Cov-2 being released from the lab is no longer a 'conspiracy theory' since some desperate US politicians and outlets started to ask questions.

 

What Newsweek is silent about, is that the University of North Carolina was in the forefront of the gain of function research, and yes, it's been coronaviruses present in Chinese bats, and yes, the current boss of Wuhan lab was the one cooperating with University of North Carolina.
https://www.ncbi.nlm...les/PMC4797993/

 

After gain of function research was banned in the US, it seems they moved research onto arch-enemy territory, to China?

 

The US administration (alongside China) had and has the first hand information, and US did so badly whey they got hit with the virus. Interesting.

[gamesguru]

6% of residents in Lincoln County, Arkansas have tested positive via mRNA RT-PCR tests.  It currently the highest confirm rate of infection per 1000, 814 out of about 14,000 residents.

 

Seems, like the Grand Princess, not a lot of fatalities outside the susceptible ages/groups.  None so far, to be precise.  Many of the outbreaks at this stage are still in prisons or meat processing plants, they have yet to reach nursing homes.  Not good considering the lock-down being lifted in some areas yet to be fully hit!

 

It's good to see most countries and governors making the responsible decision, and not walking off the same cliff as Sweden.

[Florin]

Why is Belgium's COVID-19 death rate the worst in the world?
 
https://ourworldinda...ion?country=BEL

 
According to the excess death stats, it probably isn't and it's probably not even the worst in Europe. The country with the worst excess death rate isn't even Italy, it's either the UK or Spain.
 
Sweden is doing better than even some of the European countries under full lockdown. It's starting to look like the full lockdowns may have been a mistake.
 
https://www.euromomo...graphs-and-maps

[Florin]

Something weird's going on with Ireland and the Netherlands. Ireland never had excess deaths and the Netherlands' excess death rate has already peaked is now below normal, but their reported COVID-19 deaths per capita is similar to Sweden's.

 

https://www.euromomo...graphs-and-maps
https://ourworldinda...r-capita-deaths

[gamesguru]

Something weird's going on with Ireland and the Netherlands. Ireland never had excess deaths and the Netherlands' excess death rate has already peaked is now below normal, but their reported COVID-19 deaths per capita is similar to Sweden's.

 

https://www.euromomo...graphs-and-maps
https://ourworldinda...r-capita-deaths

 

Ireland is just a homely, fairly isolated society that implemented early lockdowns, closing schools on March 12th[1].

 

The Netherlands is quite the opposite.  A booming, social hotspot which did not implement a closure of Non-essential services and did not implement a stay at home order.  They closed schools on March 15th, but many seeds had been sowed.

 

Because of the exponential nature, and the high social culture, delaying lockdowns even a day or two can result in double or triple the number of fatalities in the coming weeks.

[Florin]

Ireland is just a homely, fairly isolated society that implemented early lockdowns, closing schools on March 12th[1].

 

The Netherlands is quite the opposite.  A booming, social hotspot which did not implement a closure of Non-essential services and did not implement a stay at home order.  They closed schools on March 15th, but many seeds had been sowed.

 

Because of the exponential nature, and the high social culture, delaying lockdowns even a day or two can result in double or triple the number of fatalities in the coming weeks.

 

But why are COVID-19 deaths per capita nearly identical? Sweden even had a smaller excess death peak than the Netherlands.

Edited by Florin, 01 May 2020 - 01:47 AM.

[Florin]

Apparently, the one dumb thing Sweden did was to delay/botch the lockdown of its nursing homes. If this was done the right way, it could have decreased deaths by 50%.

 

https://www.cnn.com/...intl/index.html

https://www.nytimes....d-immunity.html

 

[gamesguru]

Just checked, and Ireland, Netherlands, and Sweden are all around 200-250 deaths per 1 million.

 

Ireland imposed the most restrictions but have the busiest pubs.  Netherlands is also busy in Amsterdam, but not as much, but they impose lesser restraints.  Sweden is the lowest population density, but it imposed the fewest constraints.

 

These are all things which affect the Rt value.  More restrictions = lower Rt.  More population density = higher Rt.

 

 

The other thing that affects the timeline is when the first case occurs.  This is not as easy to figure out, as the first reported case is very rarely the true patient zero.

[Florin]

Just checked, and Ireland, Netherlands, and Sweden are all around 200-250 deaths per 1 million.

 

Ireland imposed the most restrictions but have the busiest pubs.  Netherlands is also busy in Amsterdam, but not as much, but they impose lesser restraints.  Sweden is the lowest population density, but it imposed the fewest constraints.

 

These are all things which affect the Rt value.  More restrictions = lower Rt.  More population density = higher Rt.

 

 

The other thing that affects the timeline is when the first case occurs.  This is not as easy to figure out, as the first reported case is very rarely the true patient zero.

 

Yeah, maybe, but that doesn't explain why Ireland's per capita death rate would be about the same as Sweden's, while its excess death rate would be below normal. Did Ireland's lockdown prevent lots of people from getting killed in bar fights that usually happen at this time of year? What might be really going on is that perhaps some of the recent data is incomplete. The latest excess death data highlighted in yellow might not be accurate and is "Corrected for delay in registration" and "Must be interpreted with caution as adjustments for delayed registrations may be imprecise." And perhaps the same issue affects the per capita data. Hopefully, the data will improve over the next few weeks.

 

https://www.euromomo...graphs-and-maps

Edited by Florin, 01 May 2020 - 06:01 PM.

[gamesguru]

Yeah, maybe, but that doesn't explain why Ireland's per capita death rate would be about the same as Sweden's, while its excess death rate would be below normal.

 

Lots of possibilities, with less deaths from the flu, some areas with more heart disease might have a harder time providing cardiac arrest patients hospital treatment, possibly incomplete data for Q1 2020 or missing deaths, or the simple possibility that 200 out of 1 million isn't significant and there could be a much worse wave in the Fall.

[gamesguru]

This whole thread is spot on. A pattern is emerging... the largest clusters in the US are in people who live or work in crowded conditions and can’t just “stay at home.”
Meat packing plants. Prisons. Nursing homes. Outbreak control must start there.

To fight this pandemic we must use stories.

Here's a story: So-called superspreader "events" for coronavirus in the US are among the poor, working class and marginalized. And they are at their work.

To get ahead and stop this virus we must tell the right stories. (thread)

— Gina Neff (@ginasue) April 30, 2020

— Natalie E. Dean, PhD (@nataliexdean) May 1, 2020

 

And a map of the U.S. by % of population infected, clearly showing rural outbreaks associated with prisons and meat processing plants.

 

Ever since the Seattle outbreak at the Life Care Center in Kirkland, the U.S. has been bungling responses.  This needs to change.  We need CDC oversight, better ways of delivering medical supplies and organizing efforts.

 

[gamesguru]

IHME projections seem to be optimistic?  they're predicting less than 500 deaths daily in the US, within a week or so.

 

the MIT model is predicting 1500-2000 deaths daily for the next 3 weeks

 

other models predict worse

[gamesguru]

Positivity rate dropping off slightly as testing capacity ramps up and lock-down measures show their effects.

 

Positivity rates for covid19 testing nationally are starting to decline as testing expands sharply and we move more testing away from hospitals and into community (where overall prevalence is generally lower) and as infection declines in some areas, especially hard hit New York.

— Scott Gottlieb, MD (@ScottGottliebMD) May 1, 2020

[gamesguru]

Insightful article and demo on how antibody tests can be misleading.

 

Coronavirus antibody tests aren’t as accurate as they seem

95% sensitivity? Our simulator will help you understand just how accurate antibody tests are.

Read full article here

 

 

This attached image is for 80% specificity and 90% sensitivity.

See how it reports four times more positives than actually occur?

 

The thing with the Santa Clara study claiming 99.5% specificity is it's impossible with what we know today.  We don't typically confirm infections with that accuracy.. generally we perform a single RT-PCR test, of which at least 5% are false negatives.  Any proper statistical analysis will carry this error through their own calculations.

Attached Files

•  Screenshot_2020-05-03 Coronavirus antibody tests aren’t as accurate as they seem.png   152.16KB   0 downloads

[Mind]

6% of residents in Lincoln County, Arkansas have tested positive via mRNA RT-PCR tests.  It currently the highest confirm rate of infection per 1000, 814 out of about 14,000 residents.

 

Seems, like the Grand Princess, not a lot of fatalities outside the susceptible ages/groups.  None so far, to be precise.  Many of the outbreaks at this stage are still in prisons or meat processing plants, they have yet to reach nursing homes.  Not good considering the lock-down being lifted in some areas yet to be fully hit!

 

It's good to see most countries and governors making the responsible decision, and not walking off the same cliff as Sweden.

 

The WHO says the Sweden model is the way to go. 

 

Protecting the elderly and immune-compromised. Tell people to be careful. No large gatherings. Universities went online, but other schools stayed open.

 

Sweden has endured vitriol from all corners (including here). Amazing that they stuck with the model of trusting their citizens. That took more resolve than most countries could have mustered.

 

 

Here is some context for those who think the Swedes are uncaring murderers.

 

 

To put things in even more perspective, while Sweden has already suffered  2,586 COVID deaths in 2020, back in 2018 there were approximately 6,997 total respiratory disease deaths in Sweden – and the country’s healthcare capacity was not overrun, nor were any of their public systems stretched to breaking point.

[gamesguru]

The WHO says the Sweden model is the way to go.

 

Sweden is on track to be another Belgium.  Daily cases haven't even peaked yet, and they're already closing in on 300 deaths per million.

 

Look to Korea or Germany for real responses to the pandemic.  Angela Merkel is one of the few political leaders whose keenness and scientific savviness rival our own, and in her own words, she warns her people they are "not out of the woods yet,"^[1] the pandemic is just beginning, and everyone should ideally continue wearing face masks in public.

[xEva]

re mortality rate, it seems pretty high in NYC

current deaths:18,752

NYC population as of 2018: 8.399 million

This alone gives death rate: 0.22% but of course not everyone is infected

If we take one of the numbers floating, i.e. that ~25% of all are infected, this gives us 0.88% death rate, which is pretty high

Now, if we prorate it per age group, the mortality in those over 65 is way way too high.

[Florin]

Here is some context for those who think the Swedes are uncaring murderers.

 

To put things in even more perspective, while Sweden has already suffered  2,586 COVID deaths in 2020, back in 2018 there were approximately 6,997 total respiratory disease deaths in Sweden – and the country’s healthcare capacity was not overrun, nor were any of their public systems stretched to breaking point.

 

Yeah, but no; there's a lot bigger spike in excess deaths in 2020 than in 2018. If a sudden increase in cases is large enough, it could overwhelm health care capacity.

 

https://www.euromomo...graphs-and-maps

Edited by Florin, 03 May 2020 - 07:04 PM.

[Florin]

The WHO says the Sweden model is the way to go. 
 
Protecting the elderly and immune-compromised. Tell people to be careful. No large gatherings. Universities went online, but other schools stayed open.

Sweden is on track to be another Belgium.  Daily cases haven't even peaked yet, and they're already closing in on 300 deaths per million.

You guys are jumping the gun here. We just gotta wait for all of the excess death stats to roll in over the next few weeks before drawing any strong conclusions.

Edited by Florin, 03 May 2020 - 07:13 PM.

[albedo]

A highly recommended read (take you 30-45 mins): enjoyable and playable with many scenarios possible. Much worth the time for understanding.

 

What Happens Next?

COVID-19 Futures, Explained With Playable Simulations

https://ncase.me/covid-19/

[joesixpack]

WHO confirms 1200 cases outside China and 8 deaths for a 0.6% death rate.

 

I am still worried/depressed about the coming world-wide quarantine, for something (at this point in time) is essentially just the "flu" with similar age groups/sub-populations succumbing to the disease. As I mentioned earlier, the world-wide hysteria and quarantine will likely cause more pain, suffering, death, and destruction than the virus.

 

It is unfortunate that the disease developed in China. Because there is no data coming out of China that can be believed, it fuels more hysteria.

 

Hi Mind, you were definitely right about the world quarantine.

 

Here is a 2005 article from the Virology Journal, sponsored by the NIH, that might make us all wonder if it was necessary. I would have to assume Dr. Fauci knows about this publication.

 

https://www.ncbi.nlm...bgeUWITlMs2KQCY

[gamesguru]

Here's a video showing Sweden's perspective on things.

 

In my analysis, I find an interesting mix of fact and opinion, which starts off encouraging mild restrictions, but which leads into more optimistic, almost wishful thinking.

 

8:40 is really where he lets the cat out of the bag.

 

Here are some funny quotations illustrating their alternative viewpoint,

"measures should be evidence based.. like washing your hands.. but not school closures.. no science"

"what we're seeing is a tsunami of a usually quite mild disease which is sweeping over Europe.. some countries do this some do that.. in the end it will make no difference"

"most people who get it will not even know they had it.. the fatality rate is much much lower.. like the flu.. 0.1% maybe"
"millions have had it in Sweden.. most people have had it in UK.. we don't have the tests.. at least half [have had it]"

"i'm most concerned about the dictatorial trends in Eastern Europe"

"i don't think you can stop it.. South Korea is giving up.. Taiwan, i don't know about Taiwan"
"the health care system will manage"

"[laughs at the fact that some people seem to like the lock-down]"
"we'll definitely talk in one year"

 

[gamesguru]

Seems it did land in France shortly after the November genesis in Wuhan.  This predates the U.S. travel ban—which supposedly encouraged Chinese to re-route through Europe.

 

This is also a case of community spread, so it had reached France by Dec 10th.  This was over a month before the Wuhan lock-down.

 

The patient has fully recovered.

 

A patient diagnosed with pneumonia near Paris on 27 December actually had the coronavirus, his doctor has said.

A patient diagnosed with pneumonia near Paris on 27 December actually had the coronavirus, his doctor has said.

Dr Yves Cohen told French media a swab taken at the time was recently tested, and came back positive for Covid-19.

The patient, who has since fully recovered, said he had no idea where he caught the virus as he had not been to any infected areas.

The claim means the virus may have arrived in France almost a month earlier than previously thought.

Dr Cohen pointed out that the patient's wife worked at a supermarket near Charles de Gaulle airport, meaning she could have come into contact with people who had recently arrived from China.

 

[gamesguru]

Press release from Solvenia is the first nation-wide antibody testing program.  It reports 2-4% positive rate.

 

Problems:

• unknown specificity.. even 80% can lead to 4x false positives, so it really becomes 0.5-1%
• selection bias.. it's possible people are self-recruiting who think they had it, similar to the RT-PCR test, so it is not a true random sample and we might expect very inflated %
• it's just a press release at this stage..  at least i didn't find any preliminary academic reports

Even at 2% we wouldn't be out of the woods yet.  But it would be great news

[Daniel Cooper]

Evidence that Covid-19 was in Europe earlier than suspected from the BBC -
 
France's first known case 'was in December'
 
Expect to see more of this as information continues to unfold.

Edited by Daniel Cooper, 05 May 2020 - 05:56 PM.

[Mind]

Insightful article and demo on how antibody tests can be misleading.

 

 

 

This attached image is for 80% specificity and 90% sensitivity.

See how it reports four times more positives than actually occur?

 

The thing with the Santa Clara study claiming 99.5% specificity is it's impossible with what we know today.  We don't typically confirm infections with that accuracy.. generally we perform a single RT-PCR test, of which at least 5% are false negatives.  Any proper statistical analysis will carry this error through their own calculations.

 

What is the specificity and sensitivity rate of the active coronavirus test? The false positive/negative rate?

[Mind]

Yet another study that backs up what most everyone here has been speculating about:

 

How the heck does an "extremely contagious and lethal virus NOT escape around the world...with millions of people travelling in and out of Whuan to the rest China and around the world" Especially considering it was likely percolating in China since November! Two months with no lockdown in China and it DID NOT spread around the world? It never made any sense. Thanks to Daniel Cooper for first bringing this up.

 

A recent genetic analysis found that the virus had already spread to most countries of the world late last year. The more some European countries did into it, the farther back they find patient zero...not surprisingly, late 2019.

 

This certainly backs up why so many antibody studies show widespread infection in their areas (multiple studies, multiple countries, multiple universities). And this is further backed-up by several studies of active infections (Boston, Navy ships, Prisons, etc..) showing large majorities have no or mild symptoms.

 

As of today, I am calling BS on the fear-mongering. It is a more lethal virus for vulnerable populations (striking old and obese populations of Europe and the U.S. the hardest), but we need to stop treating it like the zombie apocalypse. The world is closer to famine than ever in recent history, all due to a virus with a mortality rate that is likely much less than one percent.

 

I am calling BS on the death statistics as well. Health authorities in multiple countries are counting "presumptive cases" in with positive-tested cases. In New York they added 3,700 "presumptive cases" in one day! It is obvious to me that the death rate among the elderly is inflated, particularly in Italy, where after the first week, the elderly were denied normal health care or hospital access. Depressed frail lonely seniors with minimal care that might have died later this year, are dying now and adding to the inflated death statistics/CFR.

Edited by Mind, 06 May 2020 - 03:36 PM.