1539 replies to this topic

[Mind]

As I have positing in this thread, a lot of the excess deaths are coming from the extreme lockdowns. The virus is more deadly for the elderly (the vast majority of cases). We have a system that keeps many ill, frail, and elderly people alive well past their natural expiration date - take away normal medical care and there will be a lot of excess deaths. This has been found in the UK - many thousand excess deaths. I am sure it was even worse in Italy where one week into the outbreak, seniors were denied care and told to go die at home.

 

Panic, fear, loneliness, and depression also lead to poor health outcomes.

 

I started this thread to track the spread of this disease to see if it was really a significant disease and worth the panic - as if it was the "zombie apocalypse".

 

It is not. The continued fear-mongering, panic, extreme lockdowns, and the "you are all going to die" rhetoric is BS, complete BS, IMO.

 

It is a more deadly coronavirus (even for younger cohorts). It is worse than a "bad" flu season (according to official CDC stats - which are now being downplayed in this thread as being over-estimated). A common-sense approach (protecting nursing homes and other vulnerable populations, etc...) would be a better approach and not risk many more future lives.

[Florin]

As I have positing in this thread, a lot of the excess deaths are coming from the extreme lockdowns. The virus is more deadly for the elderly (the vast majority of cases). We have a system that keeps many ill, frail, and elderly people alive well past their natural expiration date - take away normal medical care and there will be a lot of excess deaths. This has been found in the UK - many thousand excess deaths. I am sure it was even worse in Italy where one week into the outbreak, seniors were denied care and told to go die at home.

 
The counter-arguments would be that the non-COVID excess deaths are miscategorized and are actually COVID deaths, and even if they weren't, we're avoiding a lot more COVID deaths with the lockdowns.

[gamesguru]

As I have positing in this thread, a lot of the excess deaths are coming from the extreme lockdowns. The virus is more deadly for the elderly (the vast majority of cases). We have a system that keeps many ill, frail, and elderly people alive well past their natural expiration date - take away normal medical care and there will be a lot of excess deaths.

 

It's certainly an interesting idea that cancelling elective surgeries has led to more deaths than letting the deadly virus run rampant would have The lockdowns aim to preserve the very medical capacity which you suggest they harm.

 

As for bringing the economy back it is not so simple.  Restrictions may be lifted, but people may still be afraid and businesses may suffer.  Tons of people are out of work, if you lift the executive orders, they will likely be evicted too.  We're caught in a limbo, with policymakers trying to see everyone through.  It will likely be 3 years or so, and it could get very bad in the Fall.  Either America becomes a socialist republic or the states break up into smaller federations.  Or we just completely don't prepare (like we're doing) and watch the economic fallout get 10x worse.

[gamesguru]

For reference.

 

Usually 3000 people die a week in holland (Tulips and windmills are real killers)... recently it’s peaked at 5000-ish a week. It’s finally now almost back at the norm after two months of social distancing.

 

Officially there are only 5510 corona deaths, but official means diagnosed. Lots of people in nursing homes/home died and are thus far not included in the stats.

 

Depressing times. Long distance Hugs for all.

 

Fauci: Real coronavirus death toll 'almost certainly' higher than official 80,000 count
By Peter Sullivan - 05/12/20 11:40 AM EDT

Anthony Fauci said Tuesday that the real number of deaths from coronavirus is "almost certainly" even higher than the official death toll of 80,000 because of the likelihood that some deaths went unrecorded.

Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, told the Senate Health Committee during a virtual hearing that with health care systems overwhelmed, it's very likely a number of deaths were not recorded, meaning total deaths from the coronavirus across the country are likely higher than the already staggering toll of more than 80,000 now counted by Johns Hopkins University.

"Most of us feel that the number of deaths are likely higher than that number because given the situation particularly in New York City, when they were really strapped with a very serious challenge to their health care system, that there may have been people who died at home who were not counted as COVID because they never really got to the hospital," Fauci said during the hearing.

Asked by Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) if the real number of deaths could be even 50 percent higher than the official number of 80,000, Fauci said: "I think you are correct that the number is likely higher, I don't know exactly what percent higher, but almost certainly it's higher."

[Florin]

69-93k excess deaths since 2/1/2020 across the United States.

 

https://www.cdc.gov/...cess_deaths.htm

[gamesguru]

[albedo]

Paper in MedRxiv by John Ioannidis:

 

The infection fatality rate of COVID-19 inferred from seroprevalence data

 

"Objective To estimate the infection fatality rate of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) from data of seroprevalence studies. Methods Population studies with sample size of at least 500 and published as peer-reviewed papers or preprints as of May 12, 2020 were retrieved from PubMed, preprint servers, and communications with experts. Studies on blood donors were included, but studies on healthcare workers were excluded. The studies were assessed for design features and seroprevalence estimates. Infection fatality rate was estimated from each study dividing the number of COVID-19 deaths at a relevant time point by the number of estimated people infected in each relevant region. Correction was also attempted accounting for the types of antibodies assessed. Results Twelve studies were identified with usable data to enter into calculations. Seroprevalence estimates ranged from 0.113% to 25.9% and adjusted seroprevalence estimates ranged from 0.309% to 33%. Infection fatality rates ranged from 0.03% to 0.50% and corrected values ranged from 0.02% to 0.40%. Conclusions The infection fatality rate of COVID-19 can vary substantially across different locations and this may reflect differences in population age structure and case-mix of infected and deceased patients as well as multiple other factors. Estimates of infection fatality rates inferred from seroprevalence studies tend to be much lower than original speculations made in the early days of the pandemic." (bold mine)

 

Remember also the difference: CFR is the ratio of the number of deaths divided by the number of confirmed (preferably by nucleic acid testing) cases of disease.  IFR is the ratio of deaths divided by the number of actual infections with SARS-CoV-2 (see here)

[gamesguru]

Remember also the difference: CFR is the ratio of the number of deaths divided by the number of confirmed (preferably by nucleic acid testing) cases of disease.  IFR is the ratio of deaths divided by the number of actual infections with SARS-CoV-2 (see here)

 

If you look the study actually combine multiple data sets in Table 3.

 

So I don't believe their claim it is 99.0% specific test when I know several of those locations used different tests.  For example the one in Idaho has higher specificity rating than the one in Oise, France.

 

In that case, the adjustment for Idaho need only be lowered 1% from 1.79% incidence to 0.79%, and then the IFR is closer to 0.6%.  So in this case IFR and CFR are not so very different, about 0.6% vs. 2%

[Mind]

I remember hearing in the U.S. national media outlets in the U.S. that Georgia and Florida were going to be swamped with corona virus deaths. These two states relaxed restrictions on businesses and outdoor activities 4 to 5 weeks ago. Some commentators even said Georgia was "conducting human sacrifice" on a grand scale. It was CERTAIN that Florida and Georgia were going to end up like New York (City), and Italy.

 

All of the predictions were B.S.

 

Death rates in Florida and Georgia have been in steady decline since they relaxed restrictions on normal healthy human activity.

 

https://covidtrackin...a/state/georgia

 

https://www.fox13new...interactive-map

[gamesguru]

Nobody said it was certain Florida would explode.  The cautious among us even suggested it could be a seasonal thing, which would only return full force in Fall 2020.  We are seeing this trend broadly across Europe which is re-opening alright, while question remain as to why Brazil has been hit so much harder than Australia.

 

If you're going by the original IHME models, obviously they are flawed and antiquated pieces of art at this point.  The MIT model, much more accurate, now given slightly different situation for Sweden vs. Germany for example.  The idea about herd immunity still seems like a farce, all the antibody studies so far have used high error specificity tests in low incidence areas.  And that somehow gets left out of their confidence interval

 

Florida also fired its COVID-19 dashboard manager for failing to manipulate data.. probably the last forthright, discerning official in the state is now gone.  I wouldn't trust any "data" coming out of the Southern states after a move like that.

 

Graph incident shows how Georgia is bungling coronavirus data

 

Georgia's health department published a "misleading" graph showing a neat decline in coronavirus cases. An updated version shows the truth is messier.

 

[aribadabar]

 why Brazil has been hit so much harder than Australia.

 Because its president is a medical buffoon like his US counterpart. He ignored medical advice for so long that virtually guaranteed a massive spread - now it is reaping the results.

Edited by aribadabar, 24 May 2020 - 03:16 AM.

[Mind]

So many people predicted the U.S was going to be swamped with COVID-19 deaths. So much so that the U.S. spent hundreds of millions of dollars on "Field Hospitals", over 600 million in fact. Only one of the field hospitals ever used even 50% of their beds, that was in New York, where extremely incompetent leaders put over 4,300 infected COVID patients in Nursing homes, guaranteeing a huge number of COVID deaths. One other field hospital in Chicago had a handful of patients, all the rest had none!

 

The prediction of mass casualties - so much so that field hospitals would be needed - was utter B.S.

 

The field hospitals were not needed because the people who are affected by this disease  - for the most part - are already in "hospitals" (nursing homes).

 

New York has one of the oldest populations in the U.S. and their incompetent leaders allowed that population to be exposed. Florida has an even older population but their government moved early on to protect the elderly and thus have a tiny fraction of deaths, as compared to New York.

 

Amazing that even in Canada, over 80% of the deaths have been in nursing homes. So many countries had advanced warning that this is a disease of the (frail) elderly, the obese and those in ill health, yet they acted as if it was going to kill everyone. Even I knew early on that this was a disease mainly in the elderly and earlier in this thread I mentioned that the best policy would be to lockdown nursing homes.

 

Instead, we got a steady stream of BS from national media outlets that everyone is in danger, must have total quarantines, panic, fear, run, hide, sterilize everything. I can't believe so many people are still promoting the BS that this disease is a huge threat to everyone.

 

This coronavirus is a more deadly version, but no so much that the world had to shutdown, creating all kinds of unnecessary problems and deaths, which we might be dealing with for additional months and years.

Edited by Mind, 24 May 2020 - 09:42 AM.

[gamesguru]

The field hospitals were not needed

We were not certain of that going into the lock-downs.  Better to be safe than dead.  Even if just one life was saved there, potentially millions of dollars were justified.

 

So many countries had advanced warning that this is a disease of the (frail) elderly, the obese and those in ill health, yet they acted as if it was going to kill everyone

The US has 51 million people over 65. There are 103 million with high blood pressure, 34 million have diabetes.

 

People presenting 'isolate the elderly and vulnerable' as some sort of easy solution really need to flesh out what they think that would look like in practice.

[aribadabar]

We were not certain of that going into the lock-downs.  Better to be safe than dead.  Even if just one life was saved there, potentially millions of dollars were justified.

 

The US has 51 million people over 65. There are 103 million with high blood pressure, 34 million have diabetes.

 

People presenting 'isolate the elderly and vulnerable' as some sort of easy solution really need to flesh out what they think that would look like in practice.

 

It is considered , on average, below 200k actually.

 

Lock down all chronically ill elderly in nursing homes, those are the "vulnerable" they refer to. The rest of the chronically ill but young you mentioned - to fend for themselves and they roll the dice on them.

That was the "plan". Not saying if it's good or bad just that it is.

[Florin]

The prediction of mass casualties - so much so that field hospitals would be needed - was utter B.S.

 

You think that there wouldn't have been mass casualties and swamped hospitals if no precautions were taken outside of nursing homes? A lot of old and obese younger people aren't living in nursing homes. It may have been possible that mask mandates would've been sufficient, but without lockdowns, I'm not sure how seriously they would've been taken.
 

New York has one of the oldest populations in the U.S. and their incompetent leaders allowed that population to be exposed. Florida has an even older population but their government moved early on to protect the elderly and thus have a tiny fraction of deaths, as compared to New York.

The performance of Florida's govment is debatable.
 

This coronavirus is a more deadly version, but no so much that the world had to shutdown, creating all kinds of unnecessary problems and deaths, which we might be dealing with for additional months and years.

In a less stupid world, everyone would've worn masks from the beginning and all of this unpleasant would've avoided. Now, almost everyone learned that lesson the hard way and should know better. Except for countries like UK and Sweden. And like the UK, it seems that Sweden is now starting to pay the price for it's ineptitude.

 

https://slate.com/ne...s-disaster.html

https://www.bbc.com/...health-51205344

https://www.euromomo...graphs-and-maps

Edited by Florin, 24 May 2020 - 10:54 PM.

[gamesguru]

Stockholm Won't Reach Herd Immunity In May, Sweden's Chief Epidemiologist Says

 

May 25, 20206:29 PM ET

H.J. Mai

 

 

Sweden's controversial approach to fighting the coronavirus pandemic has so far failed to produce the expected results, and there are calls within the country for the government to change its strategy.

 

"We have a very vivid political debate," Karin Olofsdotter, Sweden's ambassador to the United States, told NPR. "I don't think people are protesting on the streets but ... there's a very big debate, if this [strategy] is the right thing to do or not, on Facebook and everywhere."

 

Ambassador Olofsdotter told NPR last month that the country's capital could reach herd immunity by the end of this month. Herd immunity occurs when enough people of a population are immune to an infectious disease, either because they've been infected and recovered or they've been vaccinated against it. Some researchers have put the threshold for coronavirus herd immunity at 60%.

 

Unfortunately, Sweden's capital will not reach this milestone in May.

 

Sweden's Public Health Agency last week released the initial findings of an ongoing antibodies study that showed that only 7.3% of people in Stockholm had developed antibodies against COVID-19 by late April. Tegnell later described the study's figure as a "bit lower than we'd thought," adding that the study represented a snapshot of the situation some weeks ago and he believed that by now "a little more than 20%" of Stockholm's population should have contracted the virus.

 

It's the same figure that he mentioned in the CNBC interview over a month ago.

 

A majority of Swedes, 63%, according to one recent poll, support the measures Tegnell's agency has recommended.

 

For some anti-lockdown protesters in the U.S., "Be like Sweden" has become a rallying cry at protest rallies. But given the political, social and cultural differences between the two countries, simply adopting the Swedish model might not work.

Even without a nationwide lockdown, the Sweden's economy has taken a hit as people continue to follow their government's guidelines and stay at home. Google records indicated that trips to retail and recreational destinations in Stockholm are down 23%, while passenger numbers on public transit declined 29% between March 28-May 9.

 

Sweden's central bank, the Riksbank, provided two potential scenarios for the country's economic outlook in 2020.

Both scenarios predict a rise in unemployment rate and a contraction of the country's gross domestic product. The central bank expects unemployment to rise from 6.8% to 10.1% and GDP to shrink by up to 9.7% this year as result of the pandemic.

 

Earlier this month, Tegnell admitted that he is not sure Sweden's strategy was the right call. "I'm not convinced at all - we are constantly thinking about this," he told Swedish newspaper Aftonbladet.

[albedo]

...

In a less stupid world, everyone would've worn masks from the beginning and all of this unpleasant would've avoided. Now, almost everyone learned that lesson the hard way and should know better....

 

You (and many others I hope) are going to love it ;-)

 

Reducing transmission of SARS-CoV-2

By Kimberly A. Prather, Chia C. Wang, Robert T. Schooley

Published Online

27 May 2020

DOI: 10.1126/science.abc6197

 

"Masks and testing are necessary to combat asymptomatic spread in aerosols and droplets"

 

 masks.jpg   151.31KB   0 downloads

[gamesguru]

Health Ministry official Yoon Taeho on Monday said masks also will be enforced on all domestic and international flights from Wednesday. From June, owners of "high-risk" facilities such as bars, clubs, gyms, karaoke rooms and concert halls will be required to use smartphone QR codes to register customers so they can be tracked down more easily when infections occur.

 

As I said previously, many independents and Trump conservatives will view any imposed restriction as a deep-seated conspiracy against the American people.

 

How then can you implement QR codes at busy restaurants and contact tracing?  Americans take their privacy way too seriously for contact tracing.  I honestly see us just limping through the Fall 2020 season with halfway open businesses, some people wearing masks, and just a dumb political feud parading at a time when Eastern nations are realizing the collective good by getting back to bars and the usual social things we enjoy.

[Evawatson]

Rapid Test Kits for coronavirus

[Florin]

If masks are worn, there'd be no big need for testing and tracing. Most countries now have some form of mask mandate, along with an increasing number of States. Except for the imbeciles working at the WHO, it seems that even stupid people don't stay stupid forever.

 

What I'm more concerned about is the possibility that people will stop wearing masks too soon and that could cause a spike in cases and deaths along with another round of lockdown mania.

 

https://masks4all.co...have-mask-laws/

https://masks4all.co...tory-mask-laws/

Edited by Florin, 28 May 2020 - 07:04 PM.

[gamesguru]

If masks are worn, there'd be no big need for testing and tracing.

 

Yeah, have you really thought out the idea of having to wear a mask all the time?  To the bar?  The gym?  At work?  Out shopping?

 

I'd personally rather move to a place where contact tracing is the norm and I don't have to stuffy my nose with linen indentations 24/7

[Hebbeh]

I see no good reason whatsoever to place me and my family and loved ones at risk by going to the bar or gym anytime soon as their are much better options and I certainly have and will continue wearing a mask shopping and at work which both have current mask mandates anyway. Although I certainly don't need a mandate to realize the intelligence of wearing a mask anymore than wearing a seatbelt.

[Florin]

Yeah, have you really thought out the idea of having to wear a mask all the time?  To the bar?  The gym?  At work?  Out shopping?

 

I'd personally rather move to a place where contact tracing is the norm and I don't have to stuffy my nose with linen indentations 24/7

 

I don't need to, because Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Hong Kong have already done it, not just philosophize about it. You can do some hair splitting about stuff like gyms and bars, but that doesn't change things all that much. Have them stay closed a little longer or mandate DIY N95s, and be done with it.

Edited by Florin, 28 May 2020 - 09:58 PM.

[albedo]

"The Most Important Coronavirus Statistic: 42% Of U.S. Deaths Are From 0.6% Of The Population"

https://www.forbes.c...s/#b0e378b74cdb

So is it really here (the homes for the elder) where we all mess up with strategy, not only in US but also in EU? Other geographies? What should have we done much better? (maybe beside the obvious at long term which should likely be "strengthen the host" and not having the homes in the first place)

[Florin]

"The Most Important Coronavirus Statistic: 42% Of U.S. Deaths Are From 0.6% Of The Population"
https://www.forbes.c...s/#b0e378b74cdb
So is it really here (the homes for the elder) where we all mess up with strategy, not only in US but also in EU? Other geographies? What should have we done much better? (maybe beside the obvious at long term which should likely be "strengthen the host" and not having the homes in the first place)

 

New York has one of the oldest populations in the U.S. and their incompetent leaders allowed that population to be exposed. Florida has an even older population but their government moved early on to protect the elderly and thus have a tiny fraction of deaths, as compared to New York.
 

The performance of Florida's govment is debatable.
 
https://slate.com/ne...s-disaster.html

The performance of Florida's gov is getting less debatable. Slate didn't mention certain actions that Florida took (but which Forbes reported) to protect nursing home residents.

 

New York started to do the same stuff (but it's not clear if PPE was prioritized for nursing homes like in Florida, however) on March 13 that Florida started to do on March 17. But as Mind mentioned, the key difference was probably the fact that Cuomo forced nursing homes to accept infected residents. That seems to have been a fatal mistake.

 

https://coronavirus....acfguidance.pdf

Edited by Florin, 29 May 2020 - 07:44 PM.

[gamesguru]

The performance of Florida's gov is getting less debatable.

 

Is it?  Or are they just transitioning relatively unscathed into the summer months—like every other place where population density and socioeconomic factors didn't contribute to a crisis—regardless of any purportedly "skillful" re-opening.

 

Florida saw their biggest spike in new cases since mid-April this week.  Mere weeks after the push to re-open beaches and businesses.

 

This week also saw Matt Gaetz condemn Antifa and glorify violence against them as if they were middle East terrorist scum.  The next day a report by the FBI concluded Antifa had zero involvement in the violent protests or looting.  It was organized by white supremacist groups and rouge BLM activists.  Shows how much credibility Gaetz and anyone voting for him has

[mikeinnaples]

About Florida, see my post here:

 

https://www.longecit...-16#entry893204

 

All the Florida data is inaccurate because the information was actively suppressed and what was reported was grossly inaccurate. Then there is the whole issue of symptomatic people that were turned away in large numbers due to lack of availability of testing.

Edited by mikeinnaples, 03 June 2020 - 07:36 PM.

[Florin]

Is it?  Or are they just transitioning relatively unscathed into the summer months—like every other place where population density and socioeconomic factors didn't contribute to a crisis—regardless of any purportedly "skillful" re-opening.

 

Florida saw their biggest spike in new cases since mid-April this week.  Mere weeks after the push to re-open beaches and businesses.

 

Florida's kill'n it. Excess deaths are lower than even in the 2017/2018 flu season. Meanwhile, Ohio's excess deaths are exploding.

 

https://www.cdc.gov/...cess_deaths.htm

[mikeinnaples]

Florida's kill'n it. Excess deaths are lower than even in the 2017/2018 flu season. Meanwhile, Ohio's excess deaths are exploding.

 

https://www.cdc.gov/...cess_deaths.htm

 

I'm not seeing what you are seeing there for Florida. Besides, it is irrelevant when the data is actively being suppressed as it is in Florida.

[Florin]

About Florida, see my post here:

 

https://www.longecit...-16#entry893204

 

All the Florida data is inaccurate because the information was actively suppressed and what was reported was grossly inaccurate. Then there is the whole issue of symptomatic people that were turned away in large numbers due to lack of availability of testing.

 

Your speculations about snowbirds and data manipulation can't explain the low death stats for several reasons.

• No reports of mass graves or overwhelmed hospitals
• No reports of massive increases in the death rate at nursing homes which on average account for about 40% of COVID-19 deaths and in Florida it's almost 50%
• Mortality stats haven't stopped being reported