1539 replies to this topic

[mikeinnaples]

I'm sorry, but the simple fact that the death total reported by the CDC via the State Health Department is 20% lower than, say John Hopkins (and other data sites) that collect all the data, speaks for itself.

[Florin]

I'm sorry, but the simple fact that the death total reported by the CDC via the State Health Department is 20% lower than, say John Hopkins (and other data sites) that collect all the data, speaks for itself.

 

All of those sources agree that the death total is 2.5k to 3k, and there's no evidence of any significant increase in the death rate either.

[gamesguru]

Florida coronavirus cases surge past 58,700, the biggest daily gain in six weeks

"But the virus is gone because there’s something new to report on in the news"

 

Lmaoo imagine being this proud of being in that deep in denial    DeSantis is re-opening bars and theaters omg lolll what a demented stooge

[mikeinnaples]

All of those sources agree that the death total is 2.5k to 3k, and there's no evidence of any significant increase in the death rate either.

 

Your response doesn't make much sense. Let me try this again in a different way.

 

1. The CDC death total is 20% lower than John Hopkins (and other sites) for Florida.

2. The CDC only receives data from what the State government is reporting in Florida.

3. John Hopkins and other sites mine their data from multiple sources.

4. These other sources include county coroner officers that were ordered not to report to the CDC

5. 20% is not an insignificant discrepancy and it supports data being suppressed in Florida by the state.

6. There have been discrepancies proven across the board in every county in the state of Florida.

 

Using CDC data as an example for Florida 'killing' it when the information is incorrect is kind of silly.

[gamesguru]

Amen brother.

 

That 3,000 excess death figure may be hiding some too.  When you think about the decrease in flu and traffic related deaths for example, you expect only 2,500.  So in that case it's a 30% discrepancy coming from Ron "DeSastre" DeSantis

[Florin]

Your response doesn't make much sense. Let me try this again in a different way.

 

1. The CDC death total is 20% lower than John Hopkins (and other sites) for Florida.

2. The CDC only receives data from what the State government is reporting in Florida.

3. John Hopkins and other sites mine their data from multiple sources.

4. These other sources include county coroner officers that were ordered not to report to the CDC

5. 20% is not an insignificant discrepancy and it supports data being suppressed in Florida by the state.

6. There have been discrepancies proven across the board in every county in the state of Florida.

 

Using CDC data as an example for Florida 'killing' it when the information is incorrect is kind of silly.

 

You haven't actually looked at the data. The CDC's high estimate for excess deaths is 2,807 (data up to May 23), while Hopkins reports 2,500 COVID-19 deaths (data up to June 2).

[Florin]

Amen brother.

 

That 3,000 excess death figure may be hiding some too.  When you think about the decrease in flu and traffic related deaths for example, you expect only 2,500.  So in that case it's a 30% discrepancy coming from Ron "DeSastre" DeSantis

 

Don't you know what they say about assuming things? Death from the flu isn't common in April, and average deaths from traffic accidents for a single month is about 269.

Edited by Florin, 04 June 2020 - 03:33 AM.

[Florin]

Florida coronavirus cases surge past 58,700, the biggest daily gain in six weeks

"But the virus is gone because there’s something new to report on in the news"

 

Lmaoo imagine being this proud of being in that deep in denial    DeSantis is re-opening bars and theaters omg lolll what a demented stooge

 

As long as nursing homes are protected and since everyone should now know about the need to wear masks, who cares?

[albedo]

 

You (and many others I hope) are going to love it ;-)

 

Reducing transmission of SARS-CoV-2

By Kimberly A. Prather, Chia C. Wang, Robert T. Schooley

Published Online

27 May 2020

DOI: 10.1126/science.abc6197

 

"Masks and testing are necessary to combat asymptomatic spread in aerosols and droplets"

 

masks.jpg

 

 

Also here a very good and balanced discussion on masks and applying contextual information and precautionary principle in policy making:

 

Greenhalgh T, Schmid MB, Czypionka T, Bassler D, Gruer L. Face masks for the public during the covid-19 crisis. BMJ. 2020;369:m1435.

https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.m1435

 

"...In conclusion, in the face of a pandemic the search for perfect evidence may be the enemy of good policy. As with parachutes for jumping out of aeroplanes, 38 it is time to act without waiting for randomised controlled trial evidence .39 A recently posted preprint of a systematic review came to the same conclusion. 40 Masks are simple, cheap, and potentially effective. We believe that, worn both in the home (particularly by the person showing symptoms) and also outside the home in situations where meeting others is likely (for example, shopping, public transport), they could have a substantial impact on transmission with a relatively small impact on social and economic life..."

 

 

 

[gamesguru]

As long as nursing homes are protected and since everyone should now know about the need to wear masks, who cares?

 

Sounds idyllic bro.  Might I suggest stepping into the real world for a minute, where we have to deal with things like uncertainties and imperfections?

 

Florida is mostly older people, a disproportionate number with hypertension or diabetes.  The idea you can protect them through the Fall with zero restrictions is pure mental fluff.

Don't you know what they say about assuming things? Death from the flu isn't common in April, and average deaths from traffic accidents for a single month is about 269.

 

Miami also had its first month without a homicide in 50+ years.  Tell me again how excess deaths should be up?

[mikeinnaples]

You haven't actually looked at the data. The CDC's high estimate for excess deaths is 2,807 (data up to May 23), while Hopkins reports 2,500 COVID-19 deaths (data up to June 2).

 

Ok, I see that you still don't understand me and a result are accusing me of not actually looking at the data.

 

Lets try this one more time.

 

1. My point was about Florida numbers being misrepresented with intent.

 

2. At the time I made my post the CDC had 2,033 actual deaths reported from Florida due to Covid-19

 

3. This number was 20% lower than the actual death totals being reported by John Hopkins and other sites.

 

4. You are using 'estimates' to try and invalidate my point that was made with 'actual' counts

 

 

You cannot use algorithm based estimates to invalidate actual numbers. The estimated number of deaths you are throwing out are are completely irrelevant to the point i am making. In fact, the estimated amount isn't even valid because the initial data using 'actual' numbers is wrong because it was suppressed by the state of Florida due to them not counting all the deaths.

 

Maybe I am still not explaining it properly, but it is completely obvious to me.

[gamesguru]

Good news from one of Sweden's more responsible neighbors!

 

Thank you everyone for remaining skeptical of Anders Tegnall and Johan Giesecke.  We are still trying to figure out where they are getting their facts or beliefs!

 

Finland reports zero new infections today (2600 tests) for the first time since March (translation in comments)

In the previous follow-up period, the corresponding figures were 243 new cases and the incidence was four cases per 100,000 inhabitants.

 

It is estimated that about 5,800 have been cured, which is about 85 percent of the infections found. The assessment is based on a three-week follow-up of identified cases. Improved individuals are defined as those who do not have disease-related follow-up information after three weeks of infection.

 

However, there are delays in reporting, which means that no definite conclusions can be drawn from the increase or decrease in the number of cases based on the most recent infection period, THL points out.

 

A total of 322 people have died in Finland due to the symptoms caused by the coronavirus.

[Daniel Cooper]

Ok, I see that you still don't understand me and a result are accusing me of not actually looking at the data.

 

Lets try this one more time.

 

1. My point was about Florida numbers being misrepresented with intent.

 

2. At the time I made my post the CDC had 2,033 actual deaths reported from Florida due to Covid-19

 

3. This number was 20% lower than the actual death totals being reported by John Hopkins and other sites.

 

4. You are using 'estimates' to try and invalidate my point that was made with 'actual' counts

 

 

You cannot use algorithm based estimates to invalidate actual numbers. The estimated number of deaths you are throwing out are are completely irrelevant to the point i am making. In fact, the estimated amount isn't even valid because the initial data using 'actual' numbers is wrong because it was suppressed by the state of Florida due to them not counting all the deaths.

 

Maybe I am still not explaining it properly, but it is completely obvious to me.

 

Are we alleging an approximate 20% discrepancy on Florida?  Do we know what the error margins are on any of these state's reported numbers?  I'd be surprised if any state was better than 10% since most have standards that allow determining covid as a cause of death on symptoms only (no testing) and the fact that they are reporting deaths of patients that have covid as "covid deaths" even if covid was not the proximate cause.  And certainly on the other side there are surely some covid deaths that are not being caught.

 

A 20% discrepancy doesn't materially change either Florida's nor the nation's covid death stats.  Florida is still very low on a deaths/1M population basis and adding 500 deaths to the national total is about a 0.5% difference. If I adjust Florida's deaths up by 20% I get to 146 deaths/1M population.  That's within spitting distance of Germany (109 deaths/1M population). And  I promise you that the national numbers are not accurate to +/- 0.5%.

 

I think we are straining at gnats here.

[Florin]

1. My point was about Florida numbers being misrepresented with intent.

 
I bet my points are sharper than your points.

• Data lag.
• There's no trend of significant increase in deaths using whatever numbers you want to use.

I think I'm gonna use them to poke some holes.

 

2. At the time I made my post the CDC had 2,033 actual deaths reported from Florida due to Covid-19

3. This number was 20% lower than the actual death totals being reported by John Hopkins and other sites.

 

Data lag. Or maybe different ways to classify causes of deaths are being used. Or maybe our Reptilian overlords are manipulating the data.
 

Number of deaths reported in this table are the total number of deaths received and coded as of the date of analysis and do not represent all deaths that occurred in that period.

 

Here's our Reptilian overlords messing around again.

 

CDC, New York + NYC = 27,768
Hopkins, New York = 25.3k

 

Also Hopkins, New York, 04/13 = 14.4k

Also also Hopkins, New York, 04/14 = 9.5k

 

Looks like the Reptilians resurrected thousands of people in a single day.

 

4. You are using 'estimates' to try and invalidate my point that was made with 'actual' counts 
 
You cannot use algorithm based estimates to invalidate actual numbers. The estimated number of deaths you are throwing out are are completely irrelevant to the point i am making. In fact, the estimated amount isn't even valid because the initial data using 'actual' numbers is wrong because it was suppressed by the state of Florida due to them not counting all the deaths.

There's no trend of significant increase in deaths using whatever numbers you want to use.

[mikeinnaples]

Is responding that way really necessary? No reason discussion cannot remain civil, but you seem to be going out of your way to make it otherwise.

[mikeinnaples]

Are we alleging an approximate 20% discrepancy on Florida?  Do we know what the error margins are on any of these state's reported numbers?

 

Perhaps it is data lag with Florida reporting to the CDC, but typically they have only been a day or two behind. That many deaths would be weeks behind and that has not occurred a single time since the beginning of the pandemic. Up until the change to reporting from DeSantis, the numbers remained fairly close to one another. Really, if you think about it, this is absolutely consistent with the state only reporting 'citizen' deaths while John Hopkins is gathering data and verifying from multiple sources. The county coroners are counting everyone that dies from covid-19 in the state, not just citizens.

 

It is also telling that the change to reporting began at the same time the push began to reopen Florida.
 

[Florin]

Perhaps it is data lag with Florida reporting to the CDC, but typically they have only been a day or two behind. That many deaths would be weeks behind and that has not occurred a single time since the beginning of the pandemic. Up until the change to reporting from DeSantis, the numbers remained fairly close to one another. Really, if you think about it, this is absolutely consistent with the state only reporting 'citizen' deaths while John Hopkins is gathering data and verifying from multiple sources. The county coroners are counting everyone that dies from covid-19 in the state, not just citizens.

 

It is also telling that the change to reporting began at the same time the push began to reopen Florida.

 

"DeSastre" DeSantis demented da data. So what?

[Florin]

Sounds idyllic bro.  Might I suggest stepping into the real world for a minute, where we have to deal with things like uncertainties and imperfections?

Might I suggest not making the perfect the enemy of the good enough, bro?
 

Florida is mostly older people, a disproportionate number with hypertension or diabetes.  The idea you can protect them through the Fall with zero restrictions is pure mental fluff.

Japan. Masks. No fluff. But sometimes you just gotta let people learn the hard way.
 

Miami also had its first month without a homicide in 50+ years.  Tell me again how excess deaths should be up?

Miami? Don't you mean Florida? Anyway, I'll let you do the stats this time.

[Daniel Cooper]

Perhaps it is data lag with Florida reporting to the CDC, but typically they have only been a day or two behind. That many deaths would be weeks behind and that has not occurred a single time since the beginning of the pandemic. Up until the change to reporting from DeSantis, the numbers remained fairly close to one another. Really, if you think about it, this is absolutely consistent with the state only reporting 'citizen' deaths while John Hopkins is gathering data and verifying from multiple sources. The county coroners are counting everyone that dies from covid-19 in the state, not just citizens.

 

It is also telling that the change to reporting began at the same time the push began to reopen Florida.
 

 

 

I can see some (somewhat legitimate) desire to only report "citizen deaths" as opposed to "all deaths" if I'm a state governor.  If someone leaves New York on Monday, and they come up with covid on Friday, they almost certainly contracted it in NY (especially given the disparity of the numbers of cases between the respective states) and the governor of FL is going to be reluctant to be "charged" with that death.  On the other hand, if he left NY a month ago and came up with covid yesterday, then he clearly caught it in FL.

 

These cases should be accounted for somehow and however it is done it will be done so imperfectly. 

 

My sense is that there just isn't going to be enough of these "out of state cases" to make much of a difference one way or another. I suppose FL is particularly sensitive to it because there are so many covid cases in NY and there are a decent number of New Yorkers with winter homes in FL and one does hear of an exodus of New Yorkers to FL in the last couple of months to these winter residences (can't blame them - NY has about a third of the covid deaths in the country). 

 

But, as I said, those numbers are surely not high enough to make a huge difference one way or the other.

 

I'm fine with reaching a good faith estimate of how much FL is under counting.  If we believe it's 20% so be it.  Even if it's 50% FL is still doing relatively well and is below the national average of 331 deaths/1M population.   

 

As long as we're making good faith attempts to get at the truth and aren't letting our biases color our results, fine by me.

 

I guess my larger point was that there are error bars around all these numbers that states are reporting.  And when you're counting something of this nature +/- 10% error would not surprise me at all. So, maybe FL's numbers are outside that range, but probably not dramatically so.

[gamesguru]

Yes that data should be recorded separately.  Place of residence and place of death.  Ideally you also have the location they were infected.

[gamesguru]

Guys we still need to take this threat seriously.  Partying to a minimum, smaller social circle, use masks where possible, self-isolate if positive, etc.

 

If civilian mindset goes back to zero (which is it in Oregon and a LOT of places slowly) we will get WALLOPED by a 2nd wave in the FALL.  Already FOUR states have lost over one in 1000 people, that's a LOT omg!  Please remain vigilant and cautious until we know more about the enemy, Thank You!

Texas, Arizona, Oregon Report Significant Coronavirus Spikes After Reopening Economy
By Emily Czachor On 6/4/20 at 9:47 AM EDT

Health authorities in 14 states reported more new cases of the novel coronavirus last week compared to the week before, with Texas, Arizona and Oregon seeing the largest increases, Axios reported on Thursday. Though data confirmed by other states showed smaller degrees of change in cases identified over the last two weeks, several--including California and North Carolina--continued to report new diagnoses in high quantities.

All United States regions have reopened areas of their respective economies since implementing restrictions near the start of the virus pandemic. As Axios' report indicated, states that reopened earlier have seen recent upturns in seven-day averages of new cases diagnosed.

Arizona reported the most significant spike, with more than twice as many cases identified last week compared to the week prior, followed by Oregon and Texas. Weekly case counts recorded in Oregon were considerably lower than those recorded in Texas.

 

Just 6 states meet these basic criteria to reopen and stay safe

Most states still need to reduce coronavirus cases and build up their testing capacity.

All 50 states are moving to reopen their economies, at least partially, after shutting down businesses and gatherings in response to the coronavirus pandemic.

But a Vox analysis suggests that most states haven’t made the preparations needed to contain future waves of the pandemic — putting themselves at risk for a rise in Covid-19 cases and deaths should they continue to reopen.

Experts told me states need three things to be ready to reopen. State leaders, from the governor to the legislature to health departments, need to ensure the SARS-CoV-2 virus is no longer spreading unabated. They need the testing capacity to track and isolate the sick and their contacts. And they need the hospital capacity to handle a potential surge in Covid-19 cases.

More specifically, states should meet at least five basic criteria. They should see a two-week drop in coronavirus cases, indicating that the virus is actually abating. They should have fewer than four daily new cases per 100,000 people per day — to show that cases aren’t just dropping, but also below dangerous levels. They need at least 150 new tests per 100,000 people per day, letting them quickly track and contain outbreaks. They need an overall positive rate for tests below 5 percent — another critical indicator for testing capacity. And states should have more than 40 percent of their ICU beds free to actually treat an influx of people stricken with Covid-19 should it be necessary.

[Daniel Cooper]

About Florida, see my post here:

 

https://www.longecit...-16#entry893204

 

All the Florida data is inaccurate because the information was actively suppressed and what was reported was grossly inaccurate. Then there is the whole issue of symptomatic people that were turned away in large numbers due to lack of availability of testing.

 

But Florida was hardly unique in that respect.  All states have had test availability issues at times.  So in that respect, if you're comparing Florida's data with other states you're probably reasonably comparing "like with like".

 

Also, I can tell you that of people that come in for testing with symptoms, under 10% of those (usually about 4%) turn out to be positive.  So, if you take your number of people turned away because tests were not available and assume that 4% of them would have turned up positive you probably won't be far from the truth.

[mikeinnaples]

Yes that data should be recorded separately.  Place of residence and place of death.  Ideally you also have the location they were infected.

 

If only we had that capability early on, then more could have been done. Just a small matter of note, yesterday Florida had the the highest new case count since the end of April. Today, it had the highest new case count since the beginning of the pandemic. Too early to tell if it is an anomaly or the start of the next peak. Given the time frame, it does seem to point towards the restrictions being partially lifted. Granted this is expected, but it sure seems the Florida as a state decided the pandemic "was over" the second DeSantis did so. Almost over night, the number of people wearing masks and social distancing dropped significantly. You should have seen observation of the SpaceX launch here over the weekend, people were stacked like cord wood.Been seeing the same thing nation wide due to the ongoing protests and riots. We shall see how this impacts things over the coming weeks.

[mikeinnaples]

Regarding the CDC death totals and regarding Florida specifically:

 

2,156 Covid-19 deaths of which 1,125 were with pneumonia. This is confirmed positives.

 

303 death from influenza. This count per the CDC legend includes cases where the patient also had covid-19 and/or pneumonia

 

5,802 pneumonia deaths total, non-influenza related. This again, according the CDC's chart legend.

 

 

Unless I am missing something, this seems to specify 4,677 pneumonia related deaths not attributed to influenza with unconfirmed Covid-19 status.

[mikeinnaples]

But Florida was hardly unique in that respect.  All states have had test availability issues at times.  So in that respect, if you're comparing Florida's data with other states you're probably reasonably comparing "like with like".

 

Sure, that is impossible to argue against because you are right of course. My point wasn't so much to show the lack of testing, but to show how many people were being turned away daily for several weeks in just two health care systems and in only 1 of the 67 counties in the state. Regarding the 10% number, I am fairly certain it was higher than that in Florida at that time. Correct me if I am wrong, and I admit I might be mistaken, but I think we were at around 14% during that 3-4 week period.

 

The data that I am most interested in seeing, if it ever sees the light of day that is, is the county by county numbers (via coroners) that is/was being gathered for the entire nation as well as for the prison systems. Based on the preliminary observations, I highly doubt we will ever get to see it until a future FOIA request forces it into the public. It simply doesn't mesh well with agenda.

[Florin]

In the grand scheme of stuff, none of this fur chopping matters that much. What really matters is face lockdowns. If faces are beginning to be reopened, the beatings will continue until they get locked down again. Simple as that.

[gamesguru]

Another praiseworthy COVID response for us unlucky Americans to envy.

 

COVID Underdogs: Mongolia

The best COVID-19 response in the world

Mongolia has had the best COVID-19 response in the world. Not only do they have zero deaths, they have zero local transmissions. Mongolia didn’t flatten the curve or crush the curve — they were just like ‘fuck curves’. In Mongolia, there simply wasn't an epidemic at all.

 

And no, they didn’t just get lucky.  [Correction: They are the least densely populated country, but their capital does have 1.5 million people in the suburban area]

 

Starting in January, Mongolia executed a perfect public health response, and they have never let up the pressure since. COVID-19 did not just leave Mongolia alone. Mongolia kicked its ass.

 

For this all this hard work, however, they get little credit. Nobody’s talking about the ‘Mongolian example’. Instead, we talk about total failures like Germany or Sweden. Like I’ve said, success is ZERO, and Mongolia is as zero as you can get.

 

Just look for yourself. See the actions they took, when they took them, and how effective it was. I think you’ll be as mind-blown as I was. Mongolia’s response was intense, and somehow involved 30,000 sheep.

 

 

What did they do different?  Quoted below from wikipedia,

• They closed schools in January.
• Major events and temperature checks at the city gate in February.
• Contained and well on the decline in March (about the same time most US States were just beginning to stage their response).

Truly inspiring to see a third-world nation outdo us, well done Mongols!!

 

On 27 January 2020, the Mongolian government announced they would close the border with China. They began closing schools on the same day.^[9]

 

In February 2020, the Mongolian government cancelled Tsagaan Sar, the Mongolian New Year.^[10] Around the holiday, severe limitations were placed on travel within the country.^[11][9] Major events were cancelled in March as well, causing economic difficulty for people whose incomes depend on tourism.^[9]

 

Other epidemic control measures included temperature checks for passengers entering Ulaanbaatar, health questionnaires, and requiring face masks on Ulaanbaatar public transportation and at the airport.^[9] The government limited international flights and trains and closed its land borders.^[12] Various businesses were closed, including churches, bars, and saunas. Sports, cultural activities, and restaurants were restricted.^[9]

On March 22, the Cabinet Secretariat decided to close schools and cancel activities until the end of April.^[10]

 

As of March 24, 2020, the country was in a state of "heightened awareness", not national emergency. At that time, 2,034 people were in quarantine, with the number expected to increase as Mongolians returned from other countries.^[10]

[Florin]

What did they do different?  Quoted below from wikipedia,

• They closed schools in January.
• Major events and temperature checks at the city gate in February.
• Contained and well on the decline in March (about the same time most US States were just beginning to stage their response).

 

Mongolia was among the first countries besides the usual suspects to mandate masks around March 14, and it doesn't seem to have put in place any strict lockdowns.

 

https://masks4all.co...asks-in-public/

https://www.garda.co...rch-10-update-7

Edited by Florin, 05 June 2020 - 01:14 AM.

[gamesguru]

Fox News defends its right to spread misinformation under the First Amendment.  Problem is they are a private agency and as such if it can be proved the (mis)information they spread was deliberately harmful to a wide audience, they can be prosecuted as such.  We need to apply a giant warning label on every Fox News broadcast.  It's impossible to build a true nation with some faultless dunces trying to tear it apart.

 

 

 

[Hip]

After relaxing restrictions and easing lockdown, Iran is beginning to see a second wave of coronavirus infections.