1539 replies to this topic

[pamojja]

Granted that, the 1.35x factor seems reasonable and may become worse.

 

Of course, as time goes by the incidence in the US of course will become less, as it did in the EU. From 2.87 20 days ago down to 2.34 now. Brazil certainly too might go up, before coming down again.

 

What's interesting is that the first worse hit countries really had a fast increase, while the later have slower climbing (from wikipedia):

 

 Covid-19_daily_deaths_in_top_5_countries_and_the_world.png   116.84KB   0 downloads

 

 Covid-19_daily_deaths_in_top_5_countries_and_the_world_.png   91.32KB   0 downloads
 

[gamesguru]

Not true again, Brazil was late hit but observed a similar fast increase to Italy and US.  The ones with a more steady curve likely either have strong social distancing or seasonal factors on their side, need to wait a full year to tell (til about December or so).

 

It also helps not to look at deaths—which can lag several weeks behind—when discussing R0 values.

[albedo]

Based on a study from Oxford:

Revealed: data shows 10 countries risking coronavirus second wave as lockdown relaxed

Of the 45 countries to have recorded more than 25,000 coronavirus cases to date, 21 currently have relaxed responses to the pandemic. Of these, 10 are reporting a rising number of cases

"...The countries include the US - which is experiencing its largest increase in coronavirus cases since April; Iran, Germany and Switzerland - two European countries where the R rate has risen above one this week..."

https://www.theguard...ockdown-relaxed

[mikeinnaples]

Of course, as time goes by the incidence in the US of course will become less, as it did in the EU. From 2.87 20 days ago down to 2.34 now. Brazil certainly too might go up, before coming down again.

 

What's interesting is that the first worse hit countries really had a fast increase, while the later have slower climbing (from wikipedia):

 

Covid-19_daily_deaths_in_top_5_countries_and_the_world.png

 

Covid-19_daily_deaths_in_top_5_countries_and_the_world_.png
 

 

16 days after your post and it is out of control in many US States. Mine seeing records infections and positivity rates.

 

Edited by mikeinnaples, 30 June 2020 - 04:50 PM.

[mikeinnaples]

If only we had that capability early on, then more could have been done. Just a small matter of note, yesterday Florida had the the highest new case count since the end of April. Today, it had the highest new case count since the beginning of the pandemic. Too early to tell if it is an anomaly or the start of the next peak. Given the time frame, it does seem to point towards the restrictions being partially lifted. Granted this is expected, but it sure seems the Florida as a state decided the pandemic "was over" the second DeSantis did so. Almost over night, the number of people wearing masks and social distancing dropped significantly. You should have seen observation of the SpaceX launch here over the weekend, people were stacked like cord wood.Been seeing the same thing nation wide due to the ongoing protests and riots. We shall see how this impacts things over the coming weeks.

 

Looks like what I feared has come to fruition in Florida. Here we are just shy of 4 weeks later and the virus is back in control again. Our positivity rates have been as high as 700% above the low we experienced at the end of the shut down and we have had numerous days of record infection and positivity rates. As I write this, most of the hospitals still have plenty of space though there are some in the state that do not. Death rates are still staying low for now, but the hospitalizations have been on the rise.

 

 CasesByWeek2.jpg   62.22KB   0 downloads

 

I would post the positivity graph, but the State Health Department has not updated it with any of the last 9 days worth of data. The last week has been our worse since the beginning of the pandemic. Anyhow, the last data point for weekly average was 9.31% on 6/21 up from the 2.21% for the weekly data point on 5/17. I've noticed that they really like to take their time updating that graph when the number are bad, heh.

Edited by mikeinnaples, 30 June 2020 - 04:52 PM.

[pamojja]

US by now is at 2.39 times the average incidence of influenzia/pneumonia mortality. While Brazil at 1.35 times til now still within completely normal fluctuations.

 

16 days after your post and it is out of control in many US States. Mine seeing records infections and positivity rates.

 

Not at all reflected in death numbers, the CFR (known positive tested) seems to has gone down in the US from 5.5 to 4.8 after 16 days. In Brazil from 5 down to 4.3.

 

US unchanged with 2.39 times the average incidence of influenzia/pneumonia mortality of 2017. Brazil now increased to 2.37 the average incidence.

 

 

Of course, as time goes by the incidence in the US of course will become less, as it did in the EU. From 2.87 20 days ago down to 2.34 now. Brazil certainly too might go up, before coming down again.

 

So yes, very likely it will rise higher as in Europe before, before coming down again.

Edited by pamojja, 30 June 2020 - 05:09 PM.

[mikeinnaples]

Not at all reflected in death numbers

We will see. The deaths lag well behind the testing. We have also gotten significantly better at treating the most critically ill patients in the US. As long as systems aren't overwhelmed and forced into triage of course.

[Mind]

Pardon me if this has been posted already.

 

Spanish study finds novel(?) coronavirus in sewage sample from March of 2019.

 

Even if it was a false positive (the one from March 2019), they found it in sewage a full 41 DAYS before the first case was identified in clinically in Spain.

 

As detailed frequently in this thread, other European countries have also found patient zero way back in late 2019. There is solid evidence it was circulating in China way back in September of 2019.

 

Given all of this data, it makes no sense that the virus was just "sitting around" doing nothing. Not contagious. Not deadly. For months. Maybe even a year. Before suddenly, mysteriously, becoming super contagious, and super deadly.

 

What makes more sense to me is that it was circulating widely prior to 2020. It was being mis-classified as a bad flu (which is also detailed in this thread). Widespread panic, poor medical response, putting sick (COVID) people in long-term care facilitates, created more fatalities than would have otherwise occurred and pulled forward a lot of deaths that would have otherwise been spread out through 2020.

 

I am amazed that some people I talk to still deny that panic, fear, loneliness, and depression create significant negative health outcomes.

[Florin]

There may have been earlier strains of coronavirus that weren't as contagious or deadly, but after a few mutations, it evolved into what it is today.

 

Mutated COVID-19 Viral Strain in U.S. and Europe 10 Times More Contagious than Original Strain
https://www.biospace...ore-contagious/

[hotbit]

At 50k (worldwide) new cases a day, countries started to introduce lockdown en mass. Now, at ~200k cases a day, many countries are easing lockdowns and restarting economies and tourism in particular. Is it funny? Ridiculous?

As there is the summer in the Northern Hemisphere, lockdowns should be abandoned. We are loosing this game anyway, and it seems to be better to get infected in June or August (summer) than December or January (winter).

 

Homo Sapience population is up by ~40 000 000 just in the first half of the year 2020. There is a huge net growth. This pandemic is more of a pandemic in the name than in the essence.

The Black Death (bubonic plague) reduced world population from ~475 mln to ~350 mln in the XIV century (or about).  After Covid Pandemic world population will  be up by ~80 mln just after one year of 2020!

 

EDIT: Interestingly, despite growing number of new positives, TOTAL number of deaths in a few countries in June 2020 was lower than 5 year average for the month.... So called excess deaths was a negative number...

Edited by hotbit, 02 July 2020 - 08:49 PM.

[gamesguru]

Pardon me if this has been posted already.

 

Spanish study finds novel(?) coronavirus in sewage sample from March of 2019.

 

Even if it was a false positive (the one from March 2019), they found it in sewage a full 41 DAYS before the first case was identified in clinically in Spain.

 

As detailed frequently in this thread, other European countries have also found patient zero way back in late 2019. There is solid evidence it was circulating in China way back in September of 2019.

 

Given all of this data, it makes no sense that the virus was just "sitting around" doing nothing. Not contagious. Not deadly. For months. Maybe even a year. Before suddenly, mysteriously, becoming super contagious, and super deadly.

 

What makes more sense to me is that it was circulating widely prior to 2020. It was being mis-classified as a bad flu (which is also detailed in this thread). Widespread panic, poor medical response, putting sick (COVID) people in long-term care facilitates, created more fatalities than would have otherwise occurred and pulled forward a lot of deaths that would have otherwise been spread out through 2020.

 

I am amazed that some people I talk to still deny that panic, fear, loneliness, and depression create significant negative health outcomes.

 

The only solid thing here is your thick skull.  The only positive result in that study was in March, yes, but that's long after the first confirmed case.  The idea it started before October in China has also not been adequately defended by you, as such it's an auxiliary theory.

 

I haven't had any negative health outcomes from the lockdown.  No desires to go out to the bar and smash my brain out like other rugged individualists.  My life has basically not changed because of the lockdown, and I'm cool with it.  I never traveled.  The only negative health outcome is from debating people who are in constant denial of the quite alarming facts and who often ironically happen to be the ones in control.

[Daniel Cooper]

The only solid thing here is your thick skull.  The only positive result in that study was in March, yes, but that's long after the first confirmed case.  The idea it started before October in China has also not been adequately defended by you, as such it's an auxiliary theory.

 

I haven't had any negative health outcomes from the lockdown.  No desires to go out to the bar and smash my brain out like other rugged individualists.  My life has basically not changed because of the lockdown, and I'm cool with it.  I never traveled.  The only negative health outcome is from debating people who are in constant denial of the quite alarming facts and who often ironically happen to be the ones in control.

 

Lay off the ad hominem attacks.  You're free to attack ideas, not other people.

[gamesguru]

Apologies, I will be debating against misinformation more professionally moving forward.

 

Interesting info from Tom Hanks, and yet ANOTHER celeb to die of this dreadful disease.

 

Nick Cordero, Standout Actor in Broadway Musicals, Dies of COVID-19 Complications at 41

 

Tom Hanks on surviving coronavirus: 'I had crippling body aches, fatigue and couldn't concentrate'

[albedo]

An recent comment in The Lancet I feel to share here relating to cohort population representative SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence studies from various countries including China, US, Switzerland and Spain.

"...In light of these findings, any proposed approach to achieve herd immunity through natural infection is not only highly unethical, but also unachievable. With a large majority of the population being infection naive, virus circulation can quickly return to early pandemic dimensions in a second wave once measures are lifted. In addition, the geographical variability and the dynamic of weekly increasing seroprevalence rates during the early phase of the pandemic highlight that these studies are only snapshots in time and space, and reflect the circumstances of the period in which they were done. As we are still in the midst of an unprecedented global health crisis, such seroprevalence data will continue to be necessary for public health authorities to estimate exposure rates, especially in areas with little testing capacity for acute cases. If and when a vaccine is widely available, ongoing seroprevalence studies will be able to provide information about the extent and duration of vaccine-induced herd immunity..."

SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence in COVID-19 hotspots

 

[pamojja]

With a large majority of the population being infection naive, virus circulation can quickly return to early pandemic dimensions in a second wave once measures are lifted.

SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence in COVID-19 hotspots

 

Its contratictory behavior with sero-prevalence: daily infection-rates doubled, while death-rates halfed, since middle of April:

 

 Worldometer.png   36.44KB   0 downloads

 

But also lancet has to be taken with discernment:

 

 

“According to Philippe Douste-Blazy, France’s former Health Minister and 2017 candidate for WHO Director, the leaked 2020 Chatham House closed-door discussion between the [editor-in-chiefs] – whose publications both retracted papers favorable to big pharma over fraudulent data.
 
“Now we are not going to be able to, basically, if this continues, publish any more clinical research data because the pharmaceutical companies are so financially powerful today, and are able to use such methodologies, as to have us accept papers which are apparently methodologically perfect, but which, in reality, manage to conclude what they want them to conclude,” said Lancet [editor-in-chief] Richard Horton.”

 

[albedo]

Its contratictory behavior with sero-prevalence: daily infection-rates doubled, while death-rates halfed, since middle of April:

 

Worldometer.png

 

But also lancet has to be taken with discernment:

 

Sure .... also what is in The Lancet can be subject to discussion ... but the comment by the authors is about interpreting several representative studies: is there something wrong with them?  Assume the studies are right in their conclusions and seroprevalence is definitively low: which hypothesis do we have to explain the contradiction you point to? Is it possible immunity is somehow still developing as the studies do not measure neutralizing AB and just exposure ("...Such seroprevalence studies provide information only about previous exposure, rather than immunity, as no neutralising antibodies are measured..."). Which are other possible hypothesis? Is it Covid is impacting classes of lower age with less comorbidities and more resistance. What else? Anyway, just as a feeling engaging only myself, I would not be comfortable to lift everything and let epidemic/pandemic runs its course to putatively develop heard; it is too much of a controversial issue at present even if there are top experts in favors, e.g. see:  "I think we will and already have developed herd immunity. We will continue to manage it through herd immunity, or accommodate it through herd immunity... I think flu is much more dangerous than COVID."

()

Edited by albedo, 07 July 2020 - 02:17 PM.

[hotbit]

Its contratictory behavior with sero-prevalence: daily infection-rates doubled, while death-rates halfed, since middle of April:

 

Worldometer.png

 

But also lancet has to be taken with discernment:

 

It's worth to adjust the number of tests taken then and now before jumping to any conclusions.  Thirst, there is no known daily infection rate whether from April or June. We only have some confirmed cases numbers. This number depends on the total number of tests performed. Interestingly, number of new known infections is much lower in the UK, Sweden and several other countries despite easing lockdown measures and despite larger number of performed tests. Summer effect?

I suspect virus swiped through the part of the most vulnerable groups (nursing homes, hospitals), taking high initial death toll. I also suspect countries should reopen fully. Immunity during summer months is much stronger than in the winter months, also cold and flue viruses are not circulating as much as in January in Europe. It's better to get infected with Sars-Cov-2 now than in December with Sars-Cov-2 and a bunch of other viruses.

Especially interesting is the case of Sweden, where little changes to partial-lockdown measures took place. Number of new infections and fatalities is plummeting at around the same rate as in some other countries with much stricter lockdown rules. Again, summer immunity effect?

@albedo

Authors of The Lancet article forget that life must go on. When and if vaccine will be available? Next year at best, likely not.

As we are still in the midst of an unprecedented global health crisis... It's a political, not scientific statement. What criteria is it based on? For under 50s, there is at least  ~10-50 times higher chance to die from from something-else than Sars-Cov-2
than
to die from something-else and Sars-Cov-2 detected. (edited for more clarity.)
Also, world population is up by 40 mln in just 6 months.

 

They press on the lockdown rules now, but fail to imagine what might happen during the winter with also flu and cold viruses in the wild? Preparations for the next highly possible wave are as bad as Jan-Feb preparations for the first one. Now some scientists and most politicians are more focused on searching for credibility for their initial theories and responses than on the current situation or best solutions for the future. Like with national debts - lets make more debt and push it forward into the future.

From the snapshot, The Lancet article in question looks more of a political than scientific nature.
 

Edited by hotbit, 07 July 2020 - 03:23 PM.

[Daniel Cooper]

The only solid thing here is your thick skull.  The only positive result in that study was in March, yes, but that's long after the first confirmed case.  The idea it started before October in China has also not been adequately defended by you, as such it's an auxiliary theory.

 

I haven't had any negative health outcomes from the lockdown.  No desires to go out to the bar and smash my brain out like other rugged individualists.  My life has basically not changed because of the lockdown, and I'm cool with it.  I never traveled.  The only negative health outcome is from debating people who are in constant denial of the quite alarming facts and who often ironically happen to be the ones in control.

 

Has it occurred to you the reason you are so copacetic with mandatory masking and lock downs is that it has had almost no impact on your life.  If you already lived your life as if you were in lock down, then of course you've noticed little change.

 

On the other hand, people that enjoy interacting with the world, and those that work jobs that have for all intents and purposes been eliminated due to the lock downs have been greatly impacted.  Do you not understand that these people might have a different perspective on things than you?

[gamesguru]

I doubt honestly half of those people would want to return to their jobs if robots could just do it instead. Probably 70% of working class people are in favor of keeping businesses closed until more is known about the virus as long as they continue receiving benefits. And we're really not that technologically far off from making this radically awesome economic idea into a reality.

As for bars remaining closed no solution to that. And to be clear I'm not the guy insisting on masks but I do think he has a point. I'm merely one attempting to advance radical anarchist agendas under the guise of corona choas

[Daniel Cooper]

I doubt honestly half of those people would want to return to their jobs if robots could just do it instead. Probably 70% of working class people are in favor of keeping businesses closed until more is known about the virus as long as they continue receiving benefits. And we're really not that technologically far off from making this radically awesome economic idea into a reality.

As for bars remaining closed no solution to that. And to be clear I'm not the guy insisting on masks but I do think he has a point. I'm merely one attempting to advance radical anarchist agendas under the guise of corona choas

 

Have you ever paused to consider what a "post scarcity world" would look like?  A world where people have essentially 100% free time.  Go down to your local housing project for a preview of what that looks like.  This is going to happen and it will be one of the biggest challenges that humanity has faced since the invention of distilled spirits.  It will not be like the Star Trek universe where people devote their time to the arts and intellectual pursuits.  We really aren't that noble as a species when you get down to it. People with vast amounts of free time have a tendency to use it in counter productive ways. For all the drudgery that work is for most people, it does provide a sense of stability and direction.  When that is removed, a lot of people are going to fall into traps of despair, drug abuse, etc. etc.  It will not be all unicorns and rainbows.

 

As to your 70% number, that is something that you've have inferred based on your limited circle of acquaintances.  How many working class people do you know?  Do you know any that have been put out of work? This is what we call "confirmation bias".  There are now about 45 million people out of work that would probably disagree with your estimate.

[albedo]

This looks positive if confirms isn't?

68% Have Antibodies in This Clinic. Can Neighborhood Beat a Next Wave?

https://www-nytimes-...bodies.amp.html

But if it is positive supporting heard immunity building I ask myself about possible mutation the virus might find to continue spreading?

 

[Florin]

It seems likely that Arizona's hospital system will collapse this month. ICUs are near or at 100% capacity and non-ICU capacity is at least 80%. Cases and deaths are increasing. There's no statewide mask mandate and mask wearing is less than 50%. Human stupidity at its finest.

 

https://covidactnow.org/us/az?s=656108

https://www.cdc.gov/...ent-impact.html

https://www.cdc.gov/...cess_deaths.htm

https://nssac.bii.vi...d-19/dashboard/

https://masks4all.co...-require-masks/

http://www.healthdat..._2020.07.07.png

[gamesguru]

utterly incompetent responses in Florida and Texas as well. All predictably Republican states. Where environmental factors did not favor an early epidemic, only human factors (ignorance, stubbornness, corruption) could predict a late one

 

California is likewise being hampered by conservative judges, who moved to open churches in April and Gyms in June.. Gov Gavin Newsom made moves early this week to reverse these blunderous oversights and instill some degree of damage control

[Daniel Cooper]

utterly incompetent responses in Florida and Texas as well. All predictably Republican states. Where environmental factors did not favor an early epidemic, only human factors (ignorance, stubbornness, corruption) could predict a late one
 
California is likewise being hampered by conservative judges, who moved to open churches in April and Gyms in June.. Gov Gavin Newsom made moves early this week to reverse these blunderous oversights and instill some degree of damage control

 
If we're going to inject politics into this discussion, is it not true that New York (a Democrat controlled state, population = 19.45 million) is at 32,445 deaths whilst Florida (a Republican controlled state, population = 21.48 million ) is at 4,277 deaths? 
 
In fact, of the top 10 states in terms of deaths per 1M population, I only count 2 with Republican governors.  If we're going to add politics into the discussion.
 

Edited by Daniel Cooper, 14 July 2020 - 03:40 PM.

[gamesguru]

What?  I said the natural factors of New York favored an early outbreak, while political factors in Florida favored a late outbreak.  That's exactly what you saw: an early outbreak in New York (completely under control, for now), and a later outbreak in Florida.. for which the humongous spike in new cases has not even had one week for the accompanying deaths to catch up

 

All these Republican states are naively opening up just in time for the October 2020 - March 2021 wave of COVID.

 

Please be patient (and observant of recent blunders in southern states). Also while you're at it, can you share a screenshot sorted by cases so we see the recent spikes in Southern states?  Thanks.  Would do it to prove my point, but I'm on a crappy mobile device.

 

What's important to consider here is not the absolute per capita deaths, which depend on population density, cultural factors and much more than just politics pundits making bad calls, but rather to focus on how the state was doing relative to how political decisions have improved or deteriorated matters subsequently.  In the case of New York, restrictions and learning from some mistakes (they were ground zero in America), combined with a stable, sensible political leadership have brought a once raging situation under control.  On the contrary, reckless defiance and greedy corporate grabs in the South have turned previously calm situations into raging nightmares.

Edited by gamesguru, 14 July 2020 - 03:56 PM.

[Daniel Cooper]

What?  I said the natural factors of New York favored an early outbreak, while political factors in Florida favored a late outbreak.  That's exactly what you saw: an early outbreak in New York (completely under control, for now), and a later outbreak in Florida.. for which the humongous spike in new cases has not even had one week for the accompanying deaths to catch up

 

All these Republican states are naively opening up just in time for the October 2020 - March 2021 wave of COVID.

 

Please be patient (and observant of recent blunders in southern states). Also while you're at it, can you share a screenshot sorted by cases so we see the recent spikes in Southern states?  Thanks.  Would do it to prove my point, but I'm on a crappy mobile device.

 

What's important to consider here is not the absolute per capita deaths, which depend on population density, cultural factors and much more than just politics pundits making bad calls, but rather to focus on how the state was doing relative to how political decisions have improved or deteriorated matters subsequently.  In the case of New York, restrictions and learning from some mistakes (they were ground zero in America), combined with a stable, sensible political leadership have brought a once raging situation under control.  On the contrary, reckless defiance and greedy corporate grabs in the South have turned previously calm situations into raging nightmares.

 

So, your assertion is that New York got off to an early start and Florida a latter start and that at some point Florida will catch up to and perhaps surpass New York?

 

Fine.  Give me a date by which you project to see this happen.

 

BTW - that stable, sensible political leadership in New York passed an executive order that said that nursing homes could not refuse to accept covid positive patients.  I don't even think they did that in the moss covered wilds of Mississippi.  Those fools, they failed to grasp how enlightened this policy was.

 

Worldometers will not sort by geography, but lets take two example states. Illinois  (population 12.7 million, Chicago metro population 9.5M) versus Georgia (population 10.6M, Atlanta metro population 6M).  Similar sized population, similar in size geographically, similar levels of urbanization.  

 

Illinois:         7,394 deaths       583 deaths/1M population

Georgia:      3,026 deaths       285 deaths/1M population

 

These were the fairest comparison I could come up with as I had to find a left leaning state that was not in the northeast corridor (otherwise you'd say that it was spillover effect from NY and NJ) and then a southern state of roughly the same size and level of urbanization.

 

Now surely you would agree that Illinois is a progressive, right thinking, rational, sensible state that only elects intelligent Democrats and that Georgia is a grubby, backwards, ill educated backwater who's residents are so stupid they routinely elect Republicans.

 

So maybe ... just maybe ... politics and these reopening have played a smaller role than you imagine.  

[gamesguru]

So, your assertion is that New York got off to an early start and Florida a latter start and that at some point Florida will catch up to and perhaps surpass New York?

 

Never claimed it would surpass, that's just you extending my argument into strawman that it's not—and arguing against that instead.  The per capita death rate depends on a lot more than political competence, for example population density.

 

I simply claimed Florida had a situation that was under control and they turned it out of control, and their leaders continue to deny a problem or issue adequate policies.  That's exactly the opposite of what you saw in New York.

 

Population density itself is often a factor in per capita fatality rates, since dense regions (such as the Subway in NYC) facilitate a faster-than-linear R0 infection rate.

 

My other argument was imply that the instigators of the spikes have been the proponents of re-opening, which have oftener been conservatives whether they be governors, representatives or judges.  I can furnish examples if doubted.

[Daniel Cooper]

 

 

My other argument was imply that the instigators of the spikes have been the proponents of re-opening, which have oftener been conservatives whether they be governors, representatives or judges.  I can furnish examples if doubted.

 

 

Yes, but these spikes have been off much smaller base numbers.  FL is less than 1/6th as bad as NY.  This spike would have to continue for a long time for FL to catch up with NY.  The same holds for all these other southern states.  Why wouldn't states with much better numbers attempt to reopen before much worse off states like NY, NJ, etc.?  Would this not be logical? Unless you think we can stay locked down effectively and long enough to drive these numbers to essentially zero.  Personally, I don't think that's in the cards at this point and furthermore, we're seeing that exposure may not build any long term immunity which does not bode well for a successful vaccine.  We may be a year or two waiting for a vaccine.  In fact, it may never come.  

 

Are we to stay locked down for a vaccine that may be years away, if ever?  What is the argument for states like FL which have been relatively successful in terms of deaths per capita never even attempting to reopen?  If we're going to learn to live with his virus, obviously at some point we're going to have to return to some sort of normalcy.  We can't put 45 million people out of work and print money to support them indefinitely.  That's simply the reality of the situation we find ourselves in.

[Florin]

It seems likely that Arizona's hospital system will collapse this month. ICUs are near or at 100% capacity and non-ICU capacity is at least 80%. Cases and deaths are increasing. There's no statewide mask mandate and mask wearing is less than 50%. Human stupidity at its finest.

 

https://covidactnow.org/us/az?s=656108

https://www.cdc.gov/...ent-impact.html

 

The 80% non-ICU capacity stat comes from the CDC but Covid Act Now says it's 24%.

 

Florida, Texas, South Carolina, and Georgia are will reach max ICU capacity soon, if they haven't already.

[Daniel Cooper]

The 80% non-ICU capacity stat comes from the CDC but Covid Act Now says it's 24%.

 

Florida, Texas, South Carolina, and Georgia are will reach max ICU capacity soon, if they haven't already.

 

And these states have re-instituted much of their lock down procedures.

 

Isn't this what we would expect?  You're a state with relatively good numbers. You loosen up on your lock down.  Numbers come up and you conclude that you've loosened up too much so you start re-instituting some of your lock down.  You make attempts and you learn.  That's how these things are going to go while we feel our way around to figure out what level of lock down/openness we can deal with.

 

The alternative is to keep everything locked down indefinitely.  I don't see that being viable.  We're going to grope around until we can find a (relatively) happy medium.  That's really about our only choice since the models and reality have been so highly divergent.