1539 replies to this topic

[pamojja]

Positive tested almost halfed everywhere since 11th of Jan., which Mercola thinks innitiated by the WHO lowering the PCR-test cycles from 45 down to more reasonable 35.

 

 coronavirus-data-explorer(3).png   227.3KB   0 downloads

 

However, halfway down something unexpected interfered with the equal decline of deaths with covid, except in Europe.

 

 coronavirus-data-explorer(4).png   269.99KB   0 downloads

 

Could it be the vaccines, rolled out in Europe a month later? Via ADE? (antibody dependent disease enhancement) - Anything else?

Edited by pamojja, 16 February 2021 - 12:49 PM.

[Florin]

If we look at the deaths per million on this more detailed country-by-country table, it appears that in general the temperate climates like Europe and the US have a lot more deaths than hot tropical or desert climates like African countries, the Middle East, Australia, India, the Caribbean, etc.

 

In general, the seasonality claim is bogus. As the chart indicates, neither South America nor Asia (I didn't look at the Middle East) has it. India is cut in half by the 23rd parallel (that's why I didn't include it), but there's no hint of seasonality there either. The only way to see seasonality is to cherry pick the data.

[Dorian Grey]

In general, the seasonality claim is bogus. As the chart indicates, neither South America nor Asia (I didn't look at the Middle East) has it. India is cut in half by the 23rd parallel (that's why I didn't include it), but there's no hint of seasonality there either. The only way to see seasonality is to cherry pick the data.

 

Let's consider perhaps flu shot season?  Sept/Oct.  Everyone masked up, got the social distancing down, lessons learned from the April & Summer surges, everyone got their flu shot to head off the dreaded "twindemic".  Then what happened?  The super-surge!  Boffins all said it was due to holiday travel & gatherings, but when did it really first start to take off?  3-4 weeks before Thanksgiving?   

 

---------------------

 

Wolff, G., 2020. Influenza vaccination and respiratory virus interference among Department of Defense personnel during the 2017–2018 influenza season. Vaccine, 38(2), pp.350-354

 

“Receiving influenza vaccination may increase the risk of other respiratory viruses, a phenomenon known as virus interference.” 

 

“Examining non-influenza viruses specifically, the odds of both coronavirus and human metapneumovirus in vaccinated individuals were significantly higher when compared to unvaccinated individuals (OR = 1.36 and 1.51, respectively).” 

 

"This translates to a 36% higher risk of getting coronavirus"

 

-----------------------

 

And when does the flu shot effect start to wear off?  

 

https://www.cdc.gov/...n-2020-2021.htm

 

"Getting vaccinated in July or August is too early, especially for older people, because of the likelihood of reduced protection against flu infection later in the flu season. September and October are good times to get vaccinated."

 

And what do we see when the flu shot starts to wear off? 

 

https://www.axios.co...be88fd0ecc.html

 

Coronavirus infections are plummeting

 

"Nationwide, average daily cases have been declining by double digits for four weeks straight. Cumulatively, they've fallen by roughly 55% over that time."

 

Coincidence?  

[capob]

Now a month and a half in and reports are still at a 2% death rate (300 deaths, 14,0000 cases), with 1 person dying outside of China (in the Phillipines, but the person was from Wuhan), so essentially, the death rate outside of China is still 0%.

 

 

I find the Ivor Cummins guy (has a channel on youtube) is quite good for analyzing the data.  What I find telling is how many people died in that cruise ship held in Japan (~2% of infected, of which, all but one were over 70 years of age)(https://en.wikipedia...iamond_Princess)

 

From what I've seen, there's extremely low risk to <60, without pre-condition.  I suppose that risk might rise as people become pre-diabetic and diabetic by spending all the time indoors.

 

There are so many ridiculous things about the masks (physical model of aerosols negate use, studies negate use), the lockdowns (studies negate use), the governments reactions (billions in wealth allocation), if you think the effort is to minimize harm.  It's a sort of pseudo-expertocracy that compels the majority to force an intelligent minority into following dictates of power holders who are consolidating power.

[Hip]

In general, the seasonality claim is bogus. As the chart indicates, neither South America nor Asia (I didn't look at the Middle East) has it. India is cut in half by the 23rd parallel (that's why I didn't include it), but there's no hint of seasonality there either. The only way to see seasonality is to cherry pick the data.

 

Coronavirus transmission is likely affected by climate and weather parameters such as humidity and temperature. 

 

Therefore it is reasonable to assume that in countries or US states which have seasons where these weather parameters vary in a way that affects transmission, you are going to get seasonality. Whereas across the year if these parameters vary in a way which does not affect transmission, you are not going to get seasonality. 

 

So seasonality will depend on the country's climate.

 

Also, do not assume that when there is seasonality, the peak coronavirus seasons will be the same for all seasonal countries. As you will see below, both the US northeastern costal states and southeastern costal states have seasonality, but the peak seasons are at different times.

 

 

 

In the US northeast, there is a whole cluster of US costal states from New Hampshire down to Maryland which show strong seasonality, as the graphs on their worldometer page indicate. These northeastern states show a strong peak in April, then a pronounced major drop during the summer, followed by another strong peak in January.

 

Northeastern Costal States Coronavirus Cases/Deaths Graph Over Time

 

https://www.worldome.../new-hampshire/

https://www.worldome...massachusetts/ 

https://www.worldome...a/rhode-island/

https://www.worldome...sa/connecticut/

https://www.worldome...s/usa/new-york/

https://www.worldome...usa/new-jersey/

https://www.worldome...s/usa/maryland/

 

 

But if you go further down the eastern seaboard, as you get to hotter climes, the seasonality starts to look different. For the southernmost southeastern costal states, there is no peak in April, and instead the peak happens in July, then a slight drop in autumn, followed by another peak in January. 

 

Southeastern Costal States Coronavirus Cases/Deaths Graph Over Time

 

https://www.worldome...s/usa/virginia/

https://www.worldome...north-carolina/

https://www.worldome...south-carolina/

https://www.worldome...us/usa/georgia/

https://www.worldome...s/usa/florida/ 

Edited by Hip, 16 February 2021 - 09:13 PM.

[Florin]

Let's consider perhaps flu shot season?  Sept/Oct.  Everyone masked up, got the social distancing down, lessons learned from the April & Summer surges, everyone got their flu shot to head off the dreaded "twindemic".  Then what happened?  The super-surge!  Boffins all said it was due to holiday travel & gatherings, but when did it really first start to take off?  3-4 weeks before Thanksgiving?

 
The surge or second wave was most likely caused by more contagious variants. For instance, the H69/V70 mutation is 2X more contagious and started to increase significantly beginning in August in several countries.
 

 

What we know about the new Covid-19 variants
https://www.bbc.com/...ng-the-pandemic
 
Recurrent emergence and transmission of a SARS-CoV-2 Spike deletion ΔH69/ΔV70
https://doi.org/10.1...20.12.14.422555

[Florin]

In the US northeast, there is a whole cluster of US costal states from New Hampshire down to Maryland which show strong seasonality, as the graphs on their worldometer page indicate. These northeastern states show a strong peak in April, then a pronounced major drop during the summer, followed by another strong peak in January.

 

But if you go further down the eastern seaboard, as you get to hotter climes, the seasonality starts to look different. For the southernmost southeastern costal states, there is no peak in April, and instead the peak happens in July, then a slight drop in autumn, followed by another peak in January.

 

This is the exact opposite of what you'd expect if seasonality was a major factor. During the flu season, flu appears in all states during the same season. What we're seeing with coronavirus is just geographic spread that you're just trying to correlate with the seasons. But there's no causal connection.

 

Even in regular flu pandemics, seasonality isn't a big factor.

 

Seasonality of SARS-CoV-2: Will COVID-19 go away on its own in warmer weather?

https://ccdd.hsph.ha...warmer-weather/

[Hip]

This is the exact opposite of what you'd expect if seasonality was a major factor. During the flu season, flu appears in all states during the same season. What we're seeing with coronavirus is just geographic spread that you're just trying to correlate with the seasons. But there's no causal connection.

 
Coronavirus may not necessarily behave in the same way as influenzavirus. Although coronavirus appears to hit harder in the winter, the reasons it does so may be different to the reasons influenzavirus hits hardest in the winter. So coronavirus may not follow exactly the same seasonal pattern as influenzavirus. 
 
Each virus has its own characteristics. Some viruses like coxsackievirus actually hit in the summer time, because summer conditions make them more contagious. The adenovirus peak is in winter and spring. Chicken pox (from varicella zoster virus) peaks in spring. Gonorrhea peaks in the summer and autumn.
 
Lots of pathogens are seasonal, so it would be surprising if coronavirus was not affected by season and climate.
 
However, teasing out any seasonal effects from other factors such as the appearance of new more infectious coronavirus strains, from the controlling measures such as lockdowns, and now the vaccine rollout, is not easy.


 

https://ccdd.hsph.ha...warmer-weather/

Thats' a good link, it nicely covers the various climate factors which may influence coronavirus spread.

Edited by Hip, 16 February 2021 - 11:38 PM.

[Hip]

References for the peak season of various pathogens are easy to find, just by entering for example coxsackie virus season | summer | winter | autumn | fall | spring into Google.

 

 

 

 

Regarding the peak season occurring at different times in different countries with different climates, for coxsackievirus, this website says:

In cooler climates, outbreaks most often happen in the summer and fall, but tropical parts of the world have them year-round.

 

 

So as mentioned above, it's quite possible that the seasonality and peak season for coronavirus will be different in tropical countries compared to countries with cooler climates.

 

 

Edited by Hip, 17 February 2021 - 04:35 PM.

[Florin]

Thats' a good link, it nicely covers the various climate factors which may influence coronavirus spread.

 
It also claims that pandemics aren't necessarily affected that much by the weather.
 

The consequence is that new viruses — like pandemic influenza — can spread outside the normal season for their longer-established cousins. For example in 2009, the pandemic started in April-May (well outside of flu season), quieted in the summer (perhaps because of the importance of children in transmission of flu), and then rebounded in September-October, before the start of normal flu season. Seasonality does not constrain pandemic viruses the way it does old ones. This pattern is common for flu pandemics.

 

So as mentioned above, it's quite possible that the seasonality and peak season for coronavirus will be different in tropical countries compared to countries with cooler climates.

Perhaps different variants are affected differently by different weather, but this is very speculative.

On the other hand, the cooler countries in Asia (north of the 23rd parallel) don't have seasonality, as I pointed out before.

[Mind]

Nepal gave up on strict lockdown measures in July, had a surge of cases over the Winter, looks similar to most other places. https://www.worldome.../country/nepal/

 

Florida has few state-wide restrictions, people are living fairly normal lives, had a surge of cases like most other places.

 

According to "the experts", both Nepal and Florida should be a pile of corpses, death on every street corner, overrun hospitals, etc... It didn't happen.

[aribadabar]

According to "the experts", both Nepal and Florida should be a pile of corpses, death on every street corner, overrun hospitals, etc... It didn't happen.

 

What caused the recent hospital surge/overload in California despite the lockdown?

[calimero]

Country that tested entire population for COVID now has highest death rate in world

 

[Hip]

It's worth bring up the fact that season can have an indirect human behavior effects on coronavirus transmission, as your above link explains, @Florin.

 

 

In temperate climate countries, in the winter people will tend to close all the doors and windows on their houses, offices, bars, restaurants, cars, buses, etc because of the cold. This then traps and recirculates all the air. So one infected person in a bar or restaurant can infect the indoor air with the virus. Not only that, but in winter, central heating of indoor environments tends to dry out the air, and coronavirus (as well as flu) appears to transmit more easily in dry air. Ref: here.

 

In such temperate countries in the summer, though, you will often find the doors and windows open, because it is hot. So the indoor air is constantly replaced by fresh virus-free air from outside.

 

This may in part explain the apparent seasonal effects in temperate countries. 

 

 

In hot tropical countries or locations, even in winter it's often hot enough to keep the windows open. So in such hot places, you do not often get the situation where because of the winter cold, you have to keep the doors and windows closed. So you would expect to see less seasonality in places where the doors and windows are kept open all year around.

 

 

 

Edited by Hip, 22 February 2021 - 12:10 AM.

[Hip]

This article talks about a new study which found people who wear glasses are up to 3 times less likely to catch coronavirus.  

 

Although this is a small study which has not been peer reviewed, it makes a lot of sense that the mucous membranes of the eyes would be responsible for a lot of viral transmission, as these eye mucous membranes are more exposed to the environment than the mucous membranes of your mouth and nose. Remember coronavirus, like all respiratory viruses, is adept at entering the body via the mucous membranes. So if the virus lands on any mucous membrane, that give it a great opportunity to infect you.

 

If you imagine some saliva droplets ejected from an infected person's mouth while they are talking, and they standing next to you, there is a good chance these would land directly in your eye, and infect you. But if you are wearing glasses, that would place a barrier between your eye and the path of the ejected saliva drop.

 

If it really were the case that glasses can reduce coronavirus transmission by 3 times, we should mandate wearing eye coverings of some sort (sun glasses for example) as well as masks. A threefold reduction in viral transmission is a huge amount, comparable to the reduction in transmission that is now being achieved from one shot of the Pfizer vaccine (latest research from Israel shows one shot of this vaccine reduces transmission by 75%).

 

Edited by Hip, 22 February 2021 - 02:52 AM.

[Florin]

Seasonal stuff like temps and humidity might be a major cause for the transmission of the flu, but I'm not aware of any good evidence that the same might be true for this coronavirus.

 

If seasonality really was a major driver, we'd see evidence for consistently less overall cases and deaths in hot and humid countries and areas, but in fact, this isn't the case. Brazil sits on the equator, but it's one of the worst hit countries in the world. India also sits on the equator, but it's one of the least affected countries in the world. Canada has less per capita deaths than Brazil but more than India.

Edited by Florin, 22 February 2021 - 02:53 AM.

[Hebbeh]

Some Asian countries such as the Philippines have mandated masks and face shields both since early last year and that is probably part of the reason in addition to high (enforced) compliance that they have done better than many countries.

[Hip]

If seasonality really was a major driver, we'd see evidence for consistently less overall cases and deaths in hot and humid countries and areas, but in fact, this isn't the case. Brazil sits on the equator, but it's one of the worst hit countries in the world. India also sits on the equator, but it's one of the least affected countries in the world. Canada has less deaths than Brazil but more than India.

 

Yes, that is a good point. 

 

Generally, hot tropical countries like Africa, India, Indonesia and Australia are seeing much less coronavirus cases and deaths per capita than the temperate climate regions like Europe, Canada and (most of) the US.

 

But Brazil and South America is an exception, with high per capita death rates. 

 

Here is a world map of coronavirus deaths per capita from Wikipedia:

 

 

 

So most of the world follows the general rule that the coronavirus pandemic is much less severe in the hot tropical countries, except for Brazil and a few other South American countries. 

 

Perhaps if we applied a bit of thinking to this, we might come up with a possible explanation. 

Edited by Hip, 22 February 2021 - 03:08 AM.

[Hip]

One possible explanation for the high per capita death rates of Brazil is the fact that the Amazonian variant of coronavirus is 3 times more contagious. Ref: here.

 

And if you look at the cases per capita map of Brazil from Wikipedia, you see that the Amazon is indeed very heavily hit with coronavirus:

 

 

So this may be an example of where it is more difficult to separate the effects of climate from the effects of highly contagious coronavirus variants. 

 

But is does seem that the highly contagious variant may be to blame for the high overall death rate in Brazil, because if you look at the non-Amazonian areas of Brazil, you see that the cases per capita is much lower. This is the opposite of what would be expected, if we just go by climate. The general rule is that hotter climates have less coronavirus cases and deaths.

 

The Amazon area of Brazil is the hottest part of the country, so you would expect less coronavirus in this hot area, compared to the south of the country which is colder, and more temperate. But in fact the Amazon has it much worse, and that is probably explained by the highly contagious Amazonian strain, which is 3 times more contagious. Don't forget that if you increase the R value by a factor of 3, the exponential effects that will have will be huge.

 

 

 

 

Edited by Hip, 22 February 2021 - 03:28 AM.

[Daniel Cooper]

Seasonal stuff like temps and humidity might be a major cause for the transmission of the flu, but I'm not aware of any good evidence that the same might be true for this coronavirus.

 

If seasonality really was a major driver, we'd see evidence for consistently less overall cases and deaths in hot and humid countries and areas, but in fact, this isn't the case. Brazil sits on the equator, but it's one of the worst hit countries in the world. India also sits on the equator, but it's one of the least affected countries in the world. Canada has less per capita deaths than Brazil but more than India.

 

About a third of all colds are caused by the other four major coronaviruses in circulation. Colds are of course known to be seasonal. So why would you expect covid-19 *not* to be seasonal.

 

You simply won't consider seasonality to be a feature of this virus because that would call into question the effectiveness of these masks.

 

So are you looking for truth, or are you looking for evidence to support masks? Because they are not the same thing.

 

It truly amazes me the extent to which we tend to latch on to our pet theories. Emotion overcomes reason and at some point it becomes a near religion.

 

 

 

 

[pamojja]

One of the many reasons why Latin America might have been hid harder than all other tropical areas of this world, is the different immunity in indigenous people. Just a whole lot less as when the conquistatores arrived, whomes illness wiped out most of them. The higher prevalence of the Amazonas basin also speaks to that.

[Hip]

You simply won't consider seasonality to be a feature of this virus because that would call into question the effectiveness of these masks.

 

Yes, one has to be careful not to mistake seasonal effects for the effects of controlling restrictions like masks, social distancing, lockdowns.

 

In the UK there seems to be a strong seasonal effect, with coronavirus daily deaths dropping by 100-fold in the summer compared to the two winters (peaks of 1000 deaths per day in the winters, versus 10 deaths per day in summer). See the UK Worldometer. 

 

When the pandemic first hit in a big way in the UK in March 2020, controlling measures were introduced. By May, deaths started to slowly fall, and by July, they had gone down to around 10 per day.

 

But much of that drop appeared due to change in season, because in the summer as deaths went right down, many controlling restrictions were then eased, but the daily death rate remained low all summer. 

 

If the controlling restrictions had dramatically reduced the daily deaths alone, then you would expect deaths to shoot back up again in the summer, as the restrictions were eased. But the deaths remained low all summer, in spite of eased restrictions, until autumn and winter appeared.

 

 

 

I am not denying that controlling restrictions do help to control viral spread; but in some countries seasonal effects appear to be quite strong, so we have to be careful not to confuse the two.

 

Experts in the UK were in advance already expecting the virus to come back in a big way this winter, and it did. The saving grace was that controlling restrictions like lockdowns not only (theoretically) reduced coronavirus cases, but also dramatically reduced influenza cases by an astounding 95% (ie, a 20-fold reduction in flu), so this took a lot of the pressure of the hospitals and health services, who are normally very busy in winter anyway because of all the serious influenza cases. 

 

So the hospital beds which would have been used for the wave of influenza cases in winter could be used for coronavirus cases instead.

Edited by Hip, 22 February 2021 - 02:12 PM.

[Hip]

One of the many reasons why Latin America might have been hid harder than all other tropical areas of this world, is the different immunity in indigenous people. Just a whole lot less as when the conquistatores arrived, whomes illness wiped out most of them. The higher prevalence of the Amazonas basin also speaks to that.

 

Yes, this is possibility as well. 

 

 

Fortunately the vaccines seem to work for the Amazonian strain, that is, if the Amazonian Indians accept the vaccines.

 

According to this article, the Amazonian Indians are not anti-vaccine at all. From what I have seen, the Amazonian shamans have great respect for Western scientific medicine. Which shows they are honest.

 

But unfortunately the Indians are being manipulated by an anti-vax message delivered by some religious missionaries, social media, and fake news.

 

So the demented anti-vax movement have spread their harm even into the most remote areas of the Amazon.

Edited by Hip, 22 February 2021 - 02:29 PM.

[Florin]

About a third of all colds are caused by the other four major coronaviruses in circulation. Colds are of course known to be seasonal. So why would you expect covid-19 *not* to be seasonal.

 

So why would you expect covid-19 to *not* be exactly the same as a cold?

[Florin]

Generally, hot tropical countries like Africa, India, Indonesia and Australia are seeing much less coronavirus cases and deaths per capita than the temperate climate regions like Europe, Canada and (most of) the US.
 
But Brazil and South America is an exception, with high per capita death rates. 
 
So most of the world follows the general rule that the coronavirus pandemic is much less severe in the hot tropical countries, except for Brazil and a few other South American countries.

 
No, only Europe fits the seasonality pattern sort-of-well. But even there, the large increase in deaths during April doesn't fit the seasonality of the flu or cold. In the US, covid wasn't eliminated in the summer. South America is all covid all the time. With a few exceptions, there's nothing in Asia or Africa in any season.
 

https://ourworldinda...&pickerSort=asc
 

One possible explanation for the high per capita death rates of Brazil is the fact that the Amazonian variant of coronavirus is 3 times more contagious. Ref: here.

 
The spread of variants fits the data much better than seasonality.
 

But much of that drop appeared due to change in season, because in the summer as deaths went right down, many controlling restrictions were then eased, but the daily death rate remained low all summer. 
 
If the controlling restrictions had dramatically reduced the daily deaths alone, then you would expect deaths to shoot back up again in the summer, as the restrictions were eased. But the deaths remained low all summer, in spite of eased restrictions, until autumn and winter appeared.

 
Another explanation is change in behavior that's unrelated to direct environmental factors. After the lockdowns were lifted in Europe, people let their guard down during the summer and started to travel. This allowed the variants to spread and created the conditions that sparked the second wave. There was no sudden increase because the lockdowns "reset the clock."

[Hip]

 
only Europe fits the seasonality pattern sort-of-well.  

 

The costal states of northeast USA also have a pronounced and identical seasonality, as I detailed in my earlier post. There is a whole cluster of adjacent costal states in NE USA which show seasonality very like the European seasonality. 

 

It's interesting that in the first wave, most of the US had the weaker strain of coronavirus, but New York had the same stronger strain that was found in Europe, probably due to New York — Europe air links. Maybe that European virus is more prone to seasonality (a concept you speculated about earlier, that some coronavirus strains may be more subject to seasonality).

Edited by Hip, 22 February 2021 - 08:07 PM.

[pamojja]

For seasonality better look at the bigger picture, not individual countries where local confounders always distort the picture.

Europe is exclusively in the Northern temperate zone, and does show this pattern.

North America is both Northern temperate and Northern tropical zone, and does show this combined pattern.

South America is both Southern tropical and temperate zone, and does show this combined pattern.

Asia, Africa or Oceania doesn't show much clearly of anything. To expect seasonality in really nothing is a bid much too expect.

 coronavirus-data-explorer.png   292.89KB   0 downloads

[Advocatus Diaboli]

I wonder if it's possible that there are too many confounds in action to make any specific generalization concerning the behavior of covid-19 stand out as being the correct one?

 

edit, looks like I and pamojja had similar thoughts. pamojja's post wasn't there when I was typing.

 

Edited by Advocatus Diaboli, 22 February 2021 - 08:20 PM.

[pamojja]

Better look at historical examples: (https://swprs.org/wh...t-a-third-wave/)

What about a ‘third wave’?

The famous ‘Spanish flu’ three-wave pattern

Published: February 20, 2021

 PSX_20210222_215744.jpg   31.66KB   0 downloads

Will there be a third coronavirus wave in March 2021?

SPR was one of the first research groups in the world to predict, already in July/August 2020, a second, stronger coronavirus wave in much of Europe and the US. The rationale was simple: the seasonality of the coronavirus was well-known, the antibody seroprevalence was still very low (even in large parts of Sweden), authorities relied on mostly useless measures (e.g. masks), and they ignored or suppressed highly effective early and prophylactic treatment options.

Furthermore, most flu pandemics of the 20th century consisted of two to three waves, while the 1889 pandemic, suspected to have been caused by a coronavirus, extended over five years.

Nevertheless, many skeptics and many authorities were surprised by the second wave: the former because they falsely believed in ‘herd immunity’, the latter because they falsely believed in ineffective measures (masks, contact tracing, social distancing, et cetera).

So what about a third coronavirus wave in March 2021? Many skeptics again deny it, while many authorities predict or fear it, but for the wrong reasons, namely new virus variants: yes, new variants have been displacing old variants, but even in places where new variants dominate, they haven’t changed the trajectory of the local epidemic, irrespective of the measures in place.

Nevertheless, a third wave in March is entirely possible, but for the very same reasons as described above: the coronavirus season lasts until March/April, antibody seroprevalence is still quite low in many places (e.g. below 10% in Germany), and authorities still rely on mostly useless measures.

Furthermore, some of the existing vaccines appear to be somewhat less effective against some of the new variants (notably the ‘South African’ and the ‘Brazilian’ variants), and the mass vaccination campaigns themselves appear to have driven the spread of the coronavirus into high-risk groups in several countries, leading to an additional increase in covid deaths.

The obvious solution to preempt a potential third wave is ivermectin-based early and prophylactic treatment, but at least in Western Europe and the US, authorities will try to suppress this approach and will insist on their devastating lockdown and late-treatment strategy.

[Hip]

I wonder if it's possible that there are too many confounds in action to make any specific generalization concerning the behavior of covid-19 stand out as being the correct one?

 

It looks that way at the moment, but effects such as possible seasonality will become more apparent in the long term, if coronavirus is here to stay, as many suggest it will be. 

 

If coronavirus comes back every year like the flu, we will then see which season (if any) it peaks in, and that will demonstrate seasonality. I expect in some countries like the UK it will peak in winter, whereas in other countries there may be no particular peak, and the virus may be present all year round, as we see already in some countries and US states.