1539 replies to this topic

[Hip]

This paper concludes that the three waves of the 1918 influenza pandemic were caused by behavioral responses like social distancing (the largest effect), schools opening and closing, and temperature changes during the outbreak.

 

 

It's interesting that the 1918 pandemic most killed young and healthy people, but left the old and the frail largely untouched. 

Edited by Hip, 23 February 2021 - 04:18 AM.

[Hip]

"Britain might not have to live with coronavirus in the future because the current crop of vaccines are so effective, a top Government scientist expert has claimed.

 

Most scientists agree that once the country jabs its way out of the pandemic, Covid will become a seasonal illness which puts pressure on the NHS every winter, like flu.

 

They have told Brits they must 'learn to live with the virus' and predict new jabs will have to be made annually to tackle new variants. 

 

But Professor Devi Sridhar, chair of global public health at the University of Edinburgh and an adviser to the Scottish government, said the current jabs are so successful they could stamp the disease out to measles-like levels."

 

Source: Britain WON'T have to 'learn to live with Covid' because current crop of vaccines could stamp disease out to measles-like levels, top SAGE expert says 

[albedo]

I realize this might be very crude as analysis but how would you interpret these simple data between US, EU and China? It might be too simplistic but it looks to me that while EU reacted faster than US and got better for a while we are both now getting stuck in endless discussions for or against mitigation and lockdowns, with mixed and too complicated approaches, potentially breeding new variants and before vaccination deployment begins to show effect, China has basically solved the problem and recovered the economy. So maybe what matters is not to be for or against mitigations and lockdowns but when you do them aggressively and the degree of adherence of populations by free choice or coercion.

US EU China Deaths.PNG

US EU China Cases.PNG

 

(edit: spelling)

 

Caveat: one year old and not yet published, but makes the point too:

 

"...Hence, peak prevalence (of infections) follows the turning point/half peak (in number of cases) by about a week. The window of opportunity for starting an intervention is the week following the turning point in number of diagnoses (new cases) per day.
Responses by country in relation to the turning/decision point ..."

 

The first three months of the COVID-19 epidemic: Epidemiological evidence for two separate strains of SARS-CoV-2 viruses spreading and implications for prevention strategies

Knut M. Wittkowski

medRxiv 2020.03.28.20036715; doi: https://doi.org/10.1....03.28.20036715

[Florin]

27% of asymptomatics develop long covid. People in middle age are the most likely to be affected. The very young and very old are much less likely to be affected.

 

 

COVID Symptoms, Symptom Clusters, and Predictors for Becoming a Long-Hauler: Looking for Clarity in the Haze of the Pandemic
https://doi.org/10.1....03.03.21252086

 

Many ‘Long Covid’ Patients Had No Symptoms From Their Initial Infection

https://www.nytimes....ymptomatic.html

Edited by Florin, 10 March 2021 - 01:24 AM.

[albedo]

Are we really creating a terrible mess with immunity escape?

 Geert Vanden Bossche, DMV, PhD clean.pdf   102.06KB   16 downloads

 

 

 

 

[Dorian Grey]

Are we really creating a terrible mess with immunity escape?

Geert Vanden Bossche, DMV, PhD clean.pdf

 

Scary stuff!  The scariest part is, it seems to make a lot of sense, even to the simplest mind.  Inhibit a virus without swiftly killing it, and it will mutate around the inhibition.  This is much like the Gain of Function process they do in the labs, no?  

 

Looks like we're on a run-away train.  No stopping the great coronavirus vaccine experiment now!  

[albedo]

Scary stuff!  The scariest part is, it seems to make a lot of sense, even to the simplest mind.  Inhibit a virus without swiftly killing it, and it will mutate around the inhibition.  This is much like the Gain of Function process they do in the labs, no?  

 

Looks like we're on a run-away train.  No stopping the great coronavirus vaccine experiment now!  

 

Yes, definitively scaring to me. But I guess we will soon know: the theory seems offering a good angle to be falsified when looking at the coming few weeks trends in countries such as US, UK and Israel, let's stay tuned:

 

"...For those who may have some difculty in understanding how mass vaccinaton drives viral immune
escape, it will sufce to watch infectvity and morbidity rates in those countries who have now
succeeded in vaccinatng millions of people in just a few weeks (e.g., UK, Israel, USA). Whereas these
countries are now enjoying declining infectvity rates, they will undoubtedly start to sufer from a steep
incline in Covid-19 cases in the weeks to come. The steep decline we're seeing right now may be
followed by a short-lived plateau but a subsequent steep incline of (severe) disease cases is inevitable..."

 Geert Vanden Bossche March 8.pdf   52.16KB   0 downloads

 

I guess (only a guess) the normally reported deaths are good proxies of infectivity and morbidity?

 US UK Israel March 13 2021.PNG   456.33KB   0 downloads

 

(edit: add picture)

 

Edited by albedo, 13 March 2021 - 03:56 PM.

[Hip]

Are we really creating a terrible mess with immunity escape?

Geert Vanden Bossche, DMV, PhD clean.pdf

 

Sounds like Geert Vanden Bossche has not been following the news. 

 

It is generally accepted that viral mutations in coronavirus will eventually make it resistant to the current crop of vaccinations. This is exactly what happens with influenzavirus, which always mutates, so that a new flu vaccine is required every year to target the new mutations.

 

Most experts are predicting that we will need yearly coronavirus vaccinations henceforth, with the vaccine updated each year in order to target the latest coronavirus mutations.

 

Why Bossche thinks he is the only person who has thought about this is not clear.

Edited by Hip, 13 March 2021 - 05:30 PM.

[albedo]

@Hip

thank you for countering positively, I really heartily wish you are right and he is wrong. I admire a certain courage for someone with a good reputation to put it at stake on this and it is certainly not me able to judge. I liked the fact that explicitly he offers an angle under which all his narrative could be falsified based on data. Will see ....

[Hip]

Incidentally, the reason coronavirus mutates so quickly is because it is an RNA virus (specifically a positive-sense single-stranded RNA virus). 

 

RNA viruses mutate much faster than DNA viruses, as RNA replication is more prone to errors than DNA replication.

 

Each error in viral reproduction creates a new virus strain with slightly altered genes. If those slightly altered genes allow the virus to survive and transmit more easily, then you will get that mutated strain dominate over other other coronavirus strains that are less able to survive and transmit. It's basic Darwinian survival of the fittest.

 

 

RNA viruses are so prone to mutation, that even when you catch an RNA virus like coronavirus, the virus can mutate many times in your body, so that you end up with an infection consisting of several different strains of the virus. Those different versions in your body are known as viral quasispecies. 

 

One study found that the average COVID patient had around 38 different coronavirus quasispecies in their body at any one time — in other words, COVID patients on average have 38 different coronavirus strains simultaneously infecting them. 

Edited by Hip, 13 March 2021 - 06:11 PM.

[Hip]

@Hip

thank you for countering positively, I really heartily wish you are right and he is wrong.  

 

I don't think Bossche is wrong, because all the experts are predicting that as coronavirus continues to mutate, it will eventually mutate into a virus which is sufficiently different from the original virus, that it will evade the protection provided by the current crop of vaccines.

 

So new vaccines which target the new strains that emerge in future will be necessary to keep coronavirus in check.

 

What I don't understand is why Bossche is presenting himself as the only person saying this.

 

Even in the early days of the pandemic, experts were saying that coronavirus will eventually mutate into a strain which current vaccines cannot protect from. So Bossche is not saying anything new, as far as I can see.

Edited by Hip, 13 March 2021 - 06:19 PM.

[albedo]

Yes, definitively scaring to me. But I guess we will soon know: the theory seems offering a good angle to be falsified when looking at the coming few weeks trends in countries such as US, UK and Israel, let's stay tuned:

 

"...For those who may have some difculty in understanding how mass vaccinaton drives viral immune
escape, it will sufce to watch infectvity and morbidity rates in those countries who have now
succeeded in vaccinatng millions of people in just a few weeks (e.g., UK, Israel, USA). Whereas these
countries are now enjoying declining infectvity rates, they will undoubtedly start to sufer from a steep
incline in Covid-19 cases in the weeks to come. The steep decline we're seeing right now may be
followed by a short-lived plateau but a subsequent steep incline of (severe) disease cases is inevitable..."

Geert Vanden Bossche March 8.pdf

 

I guess (only a guess) the normally reported deaths are good proxies of infectivity and morbidity?

US UK Israel March 13 2021.PNG

 

(edit: add picture)

 

He had to put up a great site to keep up with information and rebuttal of criticisms. I admire his courage. Again I wish he will turn to be wrong as this is scaring to me. In a recent interview he again emphasized all the points made so far but newly to me said about the necessity to go beyond looking at countries curves. However I still do, still think it is useful but still believe it is maybe too early to see a trend, which I do not see yet, due to the time lag between infections, hospitalizations and deaths:

 US UK Israel March 27 2021.PNG   57.55KB   0 downloads

 

(on his web site and to cut a bit short through an overwhelming science info (to me at least!) I suggest to go first to his open letter to WHO and then to the replies to criticisms of March 25 and 26)

Edited by albedo, 27 March 2021 - 02:15 PM.

[albedo]

From Ioannidis. Global data on IFR is now solidifying:

 

"All systematic evaluations of seroprevalence data converge that SARS‐CoV‐2 infection is widely spread globally. Acknowledging residual uncertainties, the available evidence suggests average global IFR of ~0.15% and ~1.5‐2.0 billion infections by February 2021 with substantial differences in IFR and in infection spread across continents, countries, and locations."

 

Ioannidis, J.P. (2021), Reconciling estimates of global spread and infection fatality rates of COVID‐19: an overview of systematic evaluations. Eur J Clin Invest. Accepted Author Manuscript e13554. https://doi.org/10.1111/eci.13554

[albedo]

If confirmed, this looks to me to be a great news for vaccines preventing infection and also hopefully mitigating the scaring immune escape previously posted:

https://www.bmj.com/...campaign=buffer

[albedo]

He had to put up a great site to keep up with information and rebuttal of criticisms. I admire his courage. Again I wish he will turn to be wrong as this is scaring to me. In a recent interview he again emphasized all the points made so far but newly to me said about the necessity to go beyond looking at countries curves. However I still do, still think it is useful but still believe it is maybe too early to see a trend, which I do not see yet, due to the time lag between infections, hospitalizations and deaths:

US UK Israel March 27 2021.PNG

 

(on his web site and to cut a bit short through an overwhelming science info (to me at least!) I suggest to go first to his open letter to WHO and then to the replies to criticisms of March 25 and 26)

 

The prediction for a rebound in Israel, UK and US when I first posted was at 2-4 weeks. However fortunately this has not happened as per today. Prediction for UK and Israel has been changed to 2 months, to be followed (explained here: , min 30 and after).

 US UK Israel April 20 2021.PNG   59.98KB   0 downloads
 

[Mind]

Back in October 2020, the WHO estimated that 10% of the world had been infected: https://apnews.com/a...23497691e796083 putting the IFR at less than 0.20%

 

Is that about the same now? I have not seen any recent reports.

[albedo]

Back in October 2020, the WHO estimated that 10% of the world had been infected: https://apnews.com/a...23497691e796083 putting the IFR at less than 0.20%

 

Is that about the same now? I have not seen any recent reports.

 

Looks like at ~0.15% by past February as per Ioannidis in my previous post: https://www.longecit...ndpost&p=905059
 

Edited by albedo, 23 April 2021 - 08:09 PM.

[calimero]

World’s Most-Vaccinated Nation Activates Curbs as Cases Rise

[Hebbeh]

World’s Most-Vaccinated Nation Activates Curbs as Cases Rise

 

A few things:

 

To date 62.2% of its population is fully vaccinated, according to the Bloomberg Vaccine Tracker.

 

Experts predict +80% required to approach herd immunity.

 

59% of the doses administered were Sinopharm vaccines and the rest were Covishield, a version of AstraZeneca Plc’s shot made under license in India.

 

 

The efficacy of the Chinese vaccines has been called into question.

 

While data on genetic sequencing are not yet available for infections in April, the B.1.351 variant, first identified in South Africa late last year, was found in the Seychelles in February, he said. AstraZeneca’s vaccine appeared to be less effective against that variant in a study, and South Africa halted plans to use it.

 

 

 

Like most countries, the current wave seems to be more contagious variants which vaccines appear less protective against.  The indicated SA variant appears to be especially troublesome.

 

Of those cases, 84% are Seychellois and the rest are foreigners, Daniel Lucey, Clinical Professor of Medicine at Dartmouth Geisel School of Medicine, said in a blog post. Just under two thirds of those are either unvaccinated or have only had one dose, and the rest have had two doses, he said.

 

 

As in many countries, the variants appear to be introduced by foreigners and predominately spread by the unvaccinated.

[Advocatus Diaboli]

Hebbeh, please cite references for the following claims that you made in post #1099:

 

 

1.--Experts predict +80% required to approach herd immunity.

 

2.--The efficacy of the Chinese vaccines has been called into question.

 

3.--Like most countries, the current wave seems to be more contagious variants which vaccines appear less protective against.

 

4.--The indicated SA variant appears to be especially troublesome.

 

5.--As in many countries, the variants appear to be introduced by foreigners and predominately spread by the unvaccinated.

 

 

 

 

 

[Hebbeh]

Hebbeh, please cite references for the following claims that you made in post #1099:

 

 

1.--Experts predict +80% required to approach herd immunity.

 

2.--The efficacy of the Chinese vaccines has been called into question.

 

3.--Like most countries, the current wave seems to be more contagious variants which vaccines appear less protective against.

 

4.--The indicated SA variant appears to be especially troublesome.

 

5.--As in many countries, the variants appear to be introduced by foreigners and predominately spread by the unvaccinated.

 

 

 

 

Please post something informative contributing to the discussion or quit trolling.  Contrary to what you apparently believe, it doesn't require any intelligence to troll.  Quite to the contrary.

[Daniel Cooper]

Please post something informative contributing to the discussion or quit trolling.  Contrary to what you apparently believe, it doesn't require any intelligence to troll.  Quite to the contrary.

 

Nothing illegitimate about asking for sources for assertions.

[Advocatus Diaboli]

Hebbeh, my contribution, in this case, is to point out that your claims are just that--claims, and that they have no validity-in-fact until you can support them with substantiating references.

 

 

 

 

Edited by Advocatus Diaboli, 05 May 2021 - 09:11 PM.

[Hebbeh]

Nothing illegitimate about asking for sources for assertions.

 

My comments were just that....comments based on facts already discussed in the article and quoted and referenced as such...not assertions....and that should be obvious.   And observations based on general knowledge that has already been discussed here for more than a year.  Nothing earth shattering there.

 

My comments should of been obviously intended to generate constructive discussion.

 

And Devils Advocate has a habit of trolling certain members without adding to the discussion.  That's what trolling is.  And as a moderator, you should realize that rather than encouraging to distract from the discussion at hand.

 

If Devils Advocate had a different take on the situation, he could of presented his rebuttal.  Instead, he was trolling...once again.

[Advocatus Diaboli]

Hebbeh writes in post #1099

 

"Experts predict +80% required to approach herd immunity."

 

Your "comment" (assertion, no matter how you try to avoid it) is nowhere to be found in either calimero's link, or in the Bloomberg Vaccine Tracker that you link to. If you had read somewhere that the assertion had been made by a reliable source, then provide a link to it.

 

A google search of your "comment": "Experts predict +80% required to approach herd immunity." produces, as a first mention, this article in which is written:

 

"As a result, experts now calculate the herd immunity threshold to be at least 80 percent."

 

However, like you, they fail to provide a reference as to who the experts are, what the experts said exactly, and in what context, and when the "experts" said it. In other words, "hearsay" garbage.

 

Contrast that herd threshold with this opinion piece:

 

Five reasons why covid herd immunity is probably impossible. 

 

(opinion piece, 1 grain of salt, or 3 grains of barley)

 

 

 

 

 

Edited by Advocatus Diaboli, 05 May 2021 - 11:40 PM.

[Hebbeh]

The discussion was the current situation in the Seychelles and why that may be in post #1098 https://www.bloomber...-as-cases-surge .

 

Do you have anything of substance to add to the discussion in the Seychelles or are you simply going to continue to troll me on off topic nitpicking (because that is what a troll does when they have nothing constructive to add)?

 

Edit to add: There is no way for anyone to know at this point what herd immunity may require which is probably unattainable due to never achieving near 100% compliance due to vaccine hesitancy.  Therefore, the best we have is scientific and medical experts opinion and best guess.  But you can play devils advocate on that all day without adding anything useful or worthwhile other than your obvious goal of trolling unless you know something you're not sharing.

Edited by Hebbeh, 06 May 2021 - 12:10 AM.

[Advocatus Diaboli]

.

.

In post #1106 Hebbeh wrote:

 

"The discussion was the current situation in the Seychelles..." (my emphasis)

 

My bad, Hebbeh. I reckon I thought I was commenting on your claim, re: the Seychelles, that: "Experts predict +80% required to approach herd immunity." and how I thought that a reference for that claim would be appropriate (by implication) since your link doesn't mention it. 

 

So, where is the claim coming from? My guess is that it's coming from you, Hebbeh. After all, your name does appear with the post (#1099). Correct me, if I'm wrong. 

 

You aren't being trolled by me, Hebbeh. Whenever I see certain "facts", without attribution, my intuition tells me to investigate further in order to determine if the "fact" is correct. As it turns out, it seems that my intuition (see above) is activated more often by some "fact"-containing posts (yours, it seems) than by others. That you apparently find my requests for citations as being "nickpicking" and "trolling" is unfortunate. 

 

Make a claim, back it up.

 

 

PS--even if a claim has merit, it's BS to me until substantiated.

Edited by Advocatus Diaboli, 06 May 2021 - 01:25 AM.

[Hebbeh]

You're still trolling as you have yourself admitted in post #1105 in reference to the New York Times article:

 

"As a result, experts now calculate the herd immunity threshold to be at least 80 percent."

 

 

Which seems to be the current estimate from most sources and easily checked as you already did and already know... so you're simply trolling me.... as you admitted with the edited add to your last post:

 

PS--even if a claim has merit, it's BS to me until substantiated.

 

 

And in reality, there is no way to calculate herd immunity until this pandemic is finished and the data is in.  In the meantime, as I stated in my previous post:

 

There is no way for anyone to know at this point what herd immunity may require which is probably unattainable due to never achieving near 100% compliance due to vaccine hesitancy.  Therefore, the best we have is scientific and medical experts opinion and best guess.

 

 

But obviously, you consider yourself more knowledgeable than any of the current learned scientific and medical experts weighing in.

 

If you have better data and experience, than by all means weigh in and educate us.

 

Regardless, none of this was related to the discussion in the Seychelles other than you beating a dead horse to troll for no known reason.

 

Bottom line, what did you expect to achieve by trolling me on nothing?

 

PS: Your immature imbedded trolling gifs are cute... what are you?  16?

 

.

.

In post #1106 Hebbeh wrote:

 

"The discussion was the current situation in the Seychelles..." (my emphasis)

 

My bad, Hebbeh. I reckon I thought I was commenting on your claim, re: the Seychelles, that: "Experts predict +80% required to approach herd immunity." and how I thought that a reference for that claim would be appropriate (by implication) since your link doesn't mention it. 

 

So, where is the claim coming from? My guess is that it's coming from you, Hebbeh. After all, your name does appear with the post (#1099). Correct me, if I'm wrong. 

 

You aren't being trolled by me, Hebbeh. Whenever I see certain "facts", without attribution, my intuition tells me to investigate further in order to determine if the "fact" is correct. As it turns out, it seems that my intuition (see above) is activated more often by some "fact"-containing posts (yours, it seems) than by others. That you apparently find my requests for citations as being "nickpicking" and "trolling" is unfortunate. 

 

Make a claim, back it up.

 

 

PS--even if a claim has merit, it's BS to me until substantiated.

 

Edited by Hebbeh, 06 May 2021 - 01:53 AM.

[Mind]

Requesting citations and data is expected and should not be termed "trolling" (by either the sender or the receiver)

 

Much of the data can be interpreted in different ways, unfortunately. Keep that in mind.

 

Please keep the discussion civil.

[bladedmind]

New popular-science article on origins of Covid-19, at Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, by Nicholas Wade, former science reporter for the New York Times.   Well done and comparatively easy to follow.  

 

The origin of COVID: Did people or nature open Pandora’s box at Wuhan?