1539 replies to this topic

[pamojja]

Translated with google and attached as .rtf

 

Expert consensus on comprehensive treatme.rtf

 

Well worth reading, Since Shanghai had only 346 confirmed cases, 324 already recovered, 19 active and only 3 deaths.
 

[ambivalent]

Well I am concerned if that suggestion were dangerous and irresponsible and so very willing to be proven wrong but please present arguments. Almost all children will become infected unharmed and asymptomatic - we do this (purposefully infect) with chicken pox, which is not asymptomatic: its just normalised. The issue would be ensuring the children are fully cared for and stimulated - but there would be no shortage of trained volunteers. This would also free key workers who are challenged to care for their children whose schools are closed and grandparents - and so default emergency carers - must be kept at distance for their own safety. Those workers would now be free to dedicate themselves fully to the crisis. It would most likely save thousands of lives. Naturally, children immuno-compromised would not attend - if those children become sick when the medical system is at its most challenged, possibly broken, then they may not receive the potential life-saving treatment needed. The greatest challenge we appear to face is to safely flatten the infection-peak. If this is unsafe then of course I would like to be corrected. I appreciate this would be emotionally challenging for some children which is why there would need to be professional care, but if the predictions are correct most likely greater trauma will soon be inescapable for all of society. 

 

I certainly do not wish to offend, these are difficult times.

Edited by ambivalent, 13 March 2020 - 12:47 PM.

[ymc]

Well I am concerned if that suggestion were dangerous and irresponsible and so very willing to be proven wrong but please present arguments. Almost all children will become infected unharmed and asymptomatic - we do this (purposefully infect) with chicken pox, which is not asymptomatic: its just normalised. The issue would be ensuring the children are fully cared for and stimulated - but there would be no shortage of trained volunteers. This would also free key workers who are challenged to care for their children whose schools are closed and grandparents - and so default emergency carers - must be kept at distance for their own safety. Those workers would now be free to dedicate themselves fully to the crisis. It would most likely save thousands of lives. Naturally, children immuno-compromised would not attend - if those children become sick when the medical system is at its most challenged, possibly broken, then they may not receive the potential life-saving treatment needed. The greatest challenge we appear to face is to safely flatten the infection-peak. If this is unsafe then of course I would like to be corrected. I appreciate this would be emotionally challenging for some children which is why there would need to be professional care, but if the predictions are correct most likely greater trauma will soon be inescapable for all of society. 

 

I certainly do not wish to offend, these are difficult times.

 

First of all, it may not work. Coronavirus is just like flu virus that they are both RNA viruses. RNA are inherently unstable. So even if flu shots sort of work, they actually need to be re-designed each season to combat the strain of the season. Your experiment can only work for this strain of coronavirus. When there is a new strain, do you repeat the same process again?

 

Also, obviously there is a moral hazard here as a non-zero number of children can die from this experiment. Can you even afford to have just one dead kid?

[ambivalent]

First of all, it may not work. Coronavirus is just like flu virus that they are both RNA viruses. RNA are inherently unstable. So even if flu shots sort of work, they actually need to be re-designed each season to combat the strain of the season. Your experiment can only work for this strain of coronavirus. When there is a new strain, do you repeat the same process again?

 

Also, obviously there is a moral hazard here as a non-zero number of children can die from this experiment. Can you even afford to have just one dead kid?

 

 

Your last comment is about direct and indirect agency. As I mentioned the vast majority of children will contract the virus anyway and if the healthcare system is broke for a month or two an awful lot of children's lives will be implicitly put at risk. If an at risk child has the virus during that period or indeed suffers a non-virus related life threatening condition then their chances of receiving the required life-saving medical treatment is reduced. An at risk child would be better off contracting the virus then rather than at peak infection with resources at breaking point - an infection they would almost certainly contract at some point. There would be an enormous number of threats to everyone if worse-case scenarios are realised. We may not reach that point, Italy is an advanced party and hopefully we will not reach that level of decay or beyond but if there is a societal-crash then there will be many emergent risks to everyone including children. 

 

We would have considerable time to plan for a subsequent pandemic - if we know its coming. Anyhow, its a debate we don't need to pursue as it isn't going to occur. 

Edited by ambivalent, 13 March 2020 - 03:00 PM.

[Mind]

Just for comparison, the H1N1 "swine flu" 10 years ago killed several thousand people in the U.S. alone.

 

 

 

Influenza surveillance information on the 2009 H1N1 flu pandemic is available, but almost no studies attempted to estimate the total number of deaths attributable to H1N1 flu. Two studies were carried out by the CDC; the later of them estimated that between 7,070 and 13,930 deaths were attributable to H1N1 flu from April to 14 November 2009.^[169] During the same period, 1642 deaths were officially confirmed as caused by H1N1 flu.^[170][171] The WHO state that total mortality (including deaths unconfirmed or unreported) from H1N1 flu is "unquestionably higher" than their own confirmed death statistics

 

[Heisok]

Just the way I am looking at this. Not a critique of others views.

 

This has nothing to do with previous major and minor outbreaks.

This is not instead of the current Flu viruses, it is in addition. The statistics of one has nothing to do with the other, except it is additive, and could have an effect on ability to treat, and quantity of needed medical supplies.

Some governments around the world are putting in restrictions which we have to deal with.

 

I am being more careful with my behavior. I am simply being more diligent with hand washing, touching my face, awareness of  and avoidance of those who seem to be exhibiting cold, or Flu or respiratory symptoms in public.

 

 

 

[Mind]

As pointed out and/or suggested many times in this thread, considering that the Corona flu spreads exponentially like all other cold and flu viruses, that it is impossible that it has not spread to most of the U.S. It has been in the U.S. for over a month and there has been very little testing and no internal travelling limitations. I have suggested that it might be in the millions.

 

This is what the Department of Health Director in Ohio estimates as well https://www.youtube....eature=emb_logo

 

If there are 117,000 cases of the Corona flu in Ohio alone, then it is almost certain there are millions of cases in the U.S. already, just not reported.

Edited by Mind, 13 March 2020 - 05:31 PM.

[Mind]

Another day passes and no healthy person under 70 has died in the U.S., but I would expect this to change eventually, if it is the same viral strain that is in Italy or was in China.

 

It is getting tougher to get info on the cases, but here is one local news org with a discussion of the deaths so far: https://www.king5.co...77-1f32675b802b

 

Most of the deaths are tied to "long-term" elderly care facilities (old people in bad shape). Every other death in Washington state was with people who were seriously ill with underlying conditions.

 

I noticed the John's Hopkins interactive map numbers on deaths in the U.S. has been jumping around lately, from the low 40s yesterday back into the 30s today - same as yesterday's WHO situation report. Many news orgs are reporting "at least 41 deaths" or "possibly 40 deaths".

 

With cases likely ramping up into the tens of thousands in the next few days, we will get a better feel as to the true mortality rate (in the U.S.)

Edited by Mind, 14 March 2020 - 09:20 AM.

[BlueCloud]

An interview in a french newspaper with some hospital dioctors report that they see an unusually high number of young people in their 30's and 40's with no previous health problems, getting severe symptoms from the coronavirus and ending up in Intensive Care for several weeks.

 

( for those who read french : http://www.leparisie...020-8278890.php )

 

So, additional reminder : unless you enjoy being intubated to a ventilator for several weeks, take precautions even if you're young and healthy.

Edited by BlueCloud, 13 March 2020 - 06:09 PM.

[Mind]

Outside of China, the unadjusted mortality rate from the latest WHO situation report has ticked up to 3.4%. For those following this thread, a couple weeks ago it was a little less than 1%.

[zorba990]

Having just visited a Costco to 'take the pulse' on what is going on (I don't need any more supplies) I am more scared of the escalating fear, panic, and anger I am seeing. Avoiding people / crowds will become more important to avoid escalating toilet paper wars and other ridiculous behavior. I am getting at least one email a day telling me this virus will do things I never contemplated a virus would do this quickly. Here is one :

"The new Coronavirus may not show sign of infection for many days. How can you know if you are infected? By the time you have fever and/or cough and go to the hospital, the lung is usually 50% fibrosis"

Really? Seems unlikely. I think the people getting this were smokers or air pollution victims and had that condition before this virus.

Opinions?

[kurdishfella]

Anyone else seen personally empty food shelves etc when visiting stores? I Have in sweden and here there is like 100+ confirmed cases not as bad as some other places. I found it comical how toilet paper had run out on all the places i was to, didn't realize people needed it that much, this is when toilet systems with water installed that you can clean yourself with comes handy and fast.

Edited by kurdishfella, 13 March 2020 - 08:40 PM.

[pamojja]

Opinions?

 

Do read the expert consensus on comprehensive treatment out of Shanghai already posted a page ago. Contains mainy details about diagnosis and stages too:

 

Expert consensus on comprehensive treatme.rtf

 

 

 

[pamojja]

I found it comical how toilet paper had run out on all the places i was to, didn't realize people needed it that much, this is when toilet systems with water installed that you can clean yourself with comes handy and fast.

 

In the Orient the most hygyenical method is plain water with the left hand. No need for panic.
 

[Daniel Cooper]

Does anyone actually believe that closing borders to Europe is a great solution? Sure it is necessary, every country should halt travel as much as possible when trying to contain a pandemic, but there is no doubt that there are tens of thousands of infected already in the United States.

The government is taking too lax an approach on mitigation. International containment strategies become meaningless when your neighbors, co-workers, or bus drivers already have the virus.

 

 

It might flatten the curve, or at least spread out the cases over time, which is useful in trying to avoid overwhelming your hospitals.  

 

It should have been done a month ago, but it is very unpopular politically.

[Daniel Cooper]

I highly doubt you had it. You can get an antibody test or a CT scan of your lung to prove me wrong. 

 

While US didn't test coronavirus extensively, international travel hubs like Hong Kong and Singapore has been doing testing extensively. So far, there are still no import cases from the US. In contrast, among the recent 17 cases in Hong Kong, there are 16 imported cases: 4 from an Indian tour group, 9 from an Egyptian tour group, 2 from a Madrid flight and 1 from a London flight. I think tour guides in tour groups are in high risk, so tours should be avoided. Also, apparently there were underreporting in Egypt and India because I also observed imported cases to Japan. (I can also read Japanese btw)

 

 

 

 

Nonsense.  Covid-19 has been in the wild for longer than was initially realized.

 

The Chinese are saying they caught the first case in Wuhan on December 1.  This of course wasn't the first case, only the first case that was identified in a hospital.  It is very likely that covid-19 was running around Wuhan much earlier - say from sometime in October. 

 

The Chinese reported it to the WHO on December 31 and nobody was doing much in the way of testing till the end of January and testing wasn't serious in that region till sometime in February.  So potentially covid-19 was out and about with no monitoring and no travel restrictions for perhaps four months. 

 

I think when the retrospective is written it will be understood that covid-19 was in Europe and the US earlier than originally identified.  I wouldn't be surprised if it wasn't in those areas before the end of last year.

 

Remember those cases that were identified in the US shortly after the first official case that could not be traced down to a known exposure?  

Edited by Daniel Cooper, 13 March 2020 - 09:02 PM.

[ymc]

Nonsense.  Covid-19 has been in the wild for longer than was initially realized.

 

The Chinese are saying they caught the first case in Wuhan on December 1.  This of course wasn't the first case, only the first case that was identified in a hospital.  It is very likely that covid-19 was running around Wuhan much earlier - say from sometime in October. 

 

 

Of course, US had this virus way earlier than now. My logic is when you have exported cases to other countries, then that means there is an outbreak now.

 

For example, the first case in Wuhan was Dec 1st. The first case identified in Hong Kong is a Wuhan person in Jan 23rd. So there is a lag of over two months.

 

The first case in Hong Kong that is imported from US is the #132 case diagnosed on March 12th. So we can expected it has been around in the US since Jan 12th. Hong Kong actually has closer tie to the US than Wuhan/Hubei,. so this estimate probably won't be far off.

 

In case you are interested about recent US imported cases in Hong Kong:

#132  Boston from Feb 22 to Mar 1

#136 Florida from Feb 27 to Mar 10 

[Izan]

@ topicstarter, I have relatives living in Bergamo, Lombardy. The epicentre of Covid-19 in Europe.

 

This virus and the negative effects it has on the human body is nothing like you have ever seen before in your life.

 

Please stop downplaying its threats.

 

 

Thank you.

[lancebr]

Anyone else seen personally empty food shelves etc when visiting stores? I Have in sweden and here there is like 100+ confirmed cases not as bad as some other places. I found it comical how toilet paper had run out on all the places i was to, didn't realize people needed it that much, this is when toilet systems with water installed that you can clean yourself with comes handy and fast.

 

I was at my local Costco getting some basic items and they had the aisle with the toilet paper roped

off at each end and had all customers lined up with the employees handing them the toilet over the

ropes so that customers could not make a run on it. That aisle is at the back of the store and the line

was all the way up to the front near the cash registers.
 

[Marconius]

Bought some things yesterday. And was clearly to see that certain items (TP and hand sanitizers) where sold out. And certain food products where at a low level. But I will be as usual be going to the groceries stores today first things this morning. Presumably they will be restocked for the large part. 

 

Also the Dutch association for medical microbiology has criticized the RIVM (basically the government information center for public health) for providing incomplete and outdated information.. 

Edited by Marconius, 14 March 2020 - 03:29 AM.

[Dorian Grey]

Many people have mentioned that the Corona flu is "already" all over the U.S.

 

This is very likely because there has been only limited testing and no internal restrictions on travelling or gatherings until this week. I suspect millions of people already have it. Thus, banning travel from Europe seems useless at this point.

 

I think I had it. My illness was bad in February, now I am just left with some lingering lung/trachea damage.

 

Glad your little flame still flickers on this mortal plain Mind, & hope any scarring resolves.  (Vitamin-E ?)

 

There's an Irish pub where I have lunch every Wednesday that has a nook with a big round table where a bunch of elderly men meet.  Sometimes I joke with the bartender: "so how old do you have to be to join the old man's club?"  He smiled and said "a lot of them are in their 80's".  I had a moment of poignance as I watched them this week.  Outside the wicked world was debating whether or not it might be worth crashing the global economy for what might be a futile attempt to try to save a few million (globally) of these old duffers.  The Germans killed 6 million Jews during the holocaust.  Would COVID be worse?  Could it be slowed until a good treatment found?  

 

I'm 64, and philosophical about death.  No kids and a wonderful life.  The words of Gerry O'Driscoll (Pink Floyd / Great Gig in the Sky) popped into my head: 

 

"And I am not frightened of dying, any time will do - I don't mind. Why should I be frightened of dying? There's no reason for it - you've got to go sometime"

 

Sir William Osler's (Johns Hopkins / founder of modern medicine) words: "Pneumonia is the friend of the aged" (a swift & painless end to the maladies of old age) also appeared.  

 

I don't want to live forever, but I do hope I live to see how humanity rules on the value of this holocaust (or two) of old duffers that may hang in the balance over the next year or so.  I know if my number comes up, I'll die with a smile on my face.  See you on the dark side of the moon!  

Edited by Dorian Grey, 14 March 2020 - 06:31 AM.

[kurdishfella]

I know women have stronger immune systems than men their immune system overreact to things, but how is it with covid 19, is it better for the immune system to overreact or like mens to slowly react. Im asking bcus in some cases it is bad for the immune system to overreact because it attacks organs in this case lungs . Are they also less likely to catch it than men

But men have higher metabolism which the immune system is dependent on to work properly. so it evens out or what

Edited by kurdishfella, 14 March 2020 - 07:48 AM.

[ymc]

I know women have stronger immune systems than men their immune system overreact to things, but how is it with covid 19, is it better for the immune system to overreact or like mens to slowly react. Im asking bcus in some cases it is bad for the immune system to overreact because it attacks organs in this case lungs . Are they also less likely to catch it than men

But men have higher metabolism which the immune system is dependent on to work properly. so it evens out or what

 

Based on the Korean data, cases M vs F is 38% vs 62%, death rate is 1.27% vs 0.57%. 

 

https://en.wikipedia..._in_South_Korea

 

Higher death rate for men was confirmed by various research publish at Lancet. More F cases can be explained by high sociability of women.

[kurdishfella]

Based on the Korean data, cases M vs F is 38% vs 62%, death rate is 1.27% vs 0.57%. 

 

https://en.wikipedia..._in_South_Korea

 

Higher death rate for men was confirmed by various research publish at Lancet. More F cases can be explained by high sociability of women.

thanks two more questions, if you pass someone with covid 19 and they infect you, are you able to infect others immediatly or how long does it take til you are infected when it gets into your system but it is probably  hard question to know.

 

dont kids have smaller lungs you would think it would be more dangerous for them to have covid 19 but their immune system is still developing so it is easier for them to learn the disease and fight it off.

Edited by kurdishfella, 14 March 2020 - 08:52 AM.

[Mind]

@ topicstarter, I have relatives living in Bergamo, Lombardy. The epicentre of Covid-19 in Europe.

 

This virus and the negative effects it has on the human body is nothing like you have ever seen before in your life.

 

Please stop downplaying its threats.

 

 

Thank you.

 

I apologize if the original few posts sounded like downplaying (a month and a half ago - before it spread out of China). This thread was started for the LongeCity community to provide context to this outbreak. Was it going to be like other outbreaks and be manageable? Could we get reliable information? Would it be overblown?

 

Now that the outbreak is a couple months in, it is definitely looking like a bad outbreak, based upon the experience we have seen in China and Italy. Some other countries have been able to contain it better, but others not.

 

I suspect there are a lot of cases in the U.S. and it will get worse.

 

From the beginning, I argued for the protection of the elderly (focusing on protecting the facilities like nursing homes, assisted living, and hospitals), while younger people should suffer through and make sure the economy keeps running - otherwise critical supplies could run short.

 

Thank you (and the other Italian members) who have posted here to inform everyone about the situation in Italy. You have helped everyone be better prepared.

[Marconius]

Some good news : 

 

Believe it or not, it was already there on the tenth floor of Erasmus MC: the antibody that is able to block an infection of SARS1 and SARS2. In other words, a first-ever antibody to the coronavirus. Professor of cell biology Frank Grosveld (71) keeps his cool: I am too old to jump on a table.

 

 

 

Rest at the above link.

Edited by Marconius, 14 March 2020 - 09:38 AM.

[Mind]

I know women have stronger immune systems than men their immune system overreact to things, but how is it with covid 19, is it better for the immune system to overreact or like mens to slowly react. Im asking bcus in some cases it is bad for the immune system to overreact because it attacks organs in this case lungs . Are they also less likely to catch it than men

But men have higher metabolism which the immune system is dependent on to work properly. so it evens out or what

 

 

For questions about how to protect yourself or how this particular virus affects the immune system, use this thread: https://www.longecit...onavirus/page-5

 

Let us keep this thread mainly for tracking the outbreak and reports from members around the world.

[Mind]

I see New Scientist put out this short article about the Corona Flu: https://www.newscien...s-major-action/

 

In it, they say the mortality rate is 0.7 percent. I wonder how they got this number. There are a few experts around the world who think the true mortality rate is less than 1% (because of uncounted cases - like all the children), but the majority think it is over 1%. Current numbers from WHO would point to over 1%.

[Mind]

Here some "scientists" estimated that there were 1,000 to 10,000 cases already circulating in the U.S. on March 1st. There are still no internal travel restrictions within the U.S. but large gatherings were shut down last week - started around the 11th. If the spread of the Corona flu is exponential, then there should be millions of cases in the U.S. by now. Maybe people are just in the incubation period? Will there be an explosion of cases in the next few days?

[kurdishfella]

Oh I wasn't looking to protect myself I welcome death just trying to learn how this virus works and immune system out of curiosity , didn't know this thread was just about tracking the death rate.

Since im posting this I might aswell say the last thing on my mind which is I think kids are more likely to be infected because of their developing immune system which is probably common knowledge!