1539 replies to this topic

[Mind]

FYI, I called the hospital (yesterday) about getting tested here in the U.S. They would not test me because I could not confirm any contact with anyone else who tested positive.

[Mind]

Some estimates of the mortality rate are lower than others. This is because there are so many people who have the Corona flu that experience mild or no symptoms.

 

Most experts say 80 to 90% of people experience mild or no symptoms - this is generally accepted.

 

Let us assume 1,000 infected people.

 

800 to 900 will not go to the hospital and get tested because they experience mild or no symptoms.

 

100 to 200 will experience significant symptoms (let us assume the larger number - 200)

 

Assuming a 3% mortality rate, 6 of the 200 will die.

 

6 of the original 1,000 have died, giving a true mortality rate of 0.6%.

[pamojja]

 

Therefore South Korea could give a better estimation of the ratio between fatalities to infected.

 
Though so plausible, I never wished more to be wrong: Just taking in account countries where it is in full swing with restricted testing compared with South Korea, where freely accessible drive-through testing facilities are available:
 
South Korea 7478 infected / 53 death = 141
 
 
Italy 366 death x 141 = 51,640 - 7,161 detected = 44,479 potentially infected not tested
 
Iran 237 death x 141 = 33,439 - 7,375 detected = 26,064 potentially infected not tested
 
China 3008 death x 141 = 343,676 - 80,737 detected = 262,939 potentially infected not tested
 

 

 

.. they say the mortality rate is 0.7 percent. I wonder how they got this number.

 

5 days latter: South Korea 8086 infected / 72 death = 112,3
 
 
Italy 1266 death x 112.3 = 142,172 - 17,660 detected = 124,512 untested potentially infected
 
Iran 514 death x 112.3 = 57,722 - 11,374 detected = 46,348 untested potentially infected
 
China 3142 death x 112.3 = 356,103 detected = 275,130 untested potentially infected
 
USA 45 death x 112.3 = 5054 - 2,174 detected = 2,880 untested potentially infected

[pamojja]

 

Published on 3/5/2020

[Mind]

@ topicstarter, I have relatives living in Bergamo, Lombardy. The epicentre of Covid-19 in Europe.

 

This virus and the negative effects it has on the human body is nothing like you have ever seen before in your life.

 

Please stop downplaying its threats.

 

 

Thank you.

 

Also remember that there are people in parts of the world where the impact has not been bad yet, plus there is some conflicting information about the mortality rate and pace of spread.

 

The Diamond Princess Cruise Ship was the perfect place for a disaster. Very little medical support. Maximum fear. Spreading to everyone. No hope of avoiding getting infected. A lot of elderly people, etc....

 

Almost 700 people were infected. Only 7 died. Tragic, but not devastating.

 

Also, it seems things have not spiraled out of control in South Korea. They seem to be managing the outbreak and minimizing fatalities.

[Mind]

@ topicstarter, I have relatives living in Bergamo, Lombardy. The epicentre of Covid-19 in Europe.

 

This virus and the negative effects it has on the human body is nothing like you have ever seen before in your life.

 

Please stop downplaying its threats.

 

 

Thank you.

 

Also remember that videos of people who have recovered are starting to spread across the Internet. Some of the people had severe symptoms. Others had hardly any trouble - like this woman: https://www.foxnews....cess-quarantine

 

So people see "survivors" and the survivors say that they are fine (because 80 to 90% of people have mild or no symptoms). People then might forget that the Corona flu is well known to have a much higher mortality rate in elderly populations.

Edited by Mind, 14 March 2020 - 02:05 PM.

[ymc]

https://www.epicentr...-marzo-2020.pdf

 

Italy's official deaths breakdown by age group as of March 12 can be found in the table on page 5. The percentages

are very similar to the Korean numbers for the young people but significantly higher for the old people.

Edited by ymc, 14 March 2020 - 02:15 PM.

[Blu]

We will understand the true impact after the pandemic, with a regression on overall mortality. Until then, the criteria to define contagion and mortality among countries are just too different.

I can only make guess, up to now. My hypothesis is that Italy defines death by coronavirus any death occurred to a person while that person is infected.

OTOH, the death of an elder - that is, the bulk of deaths - can be easily attributed to other causes, with current medical practices. A person has diabete, CVD, angina, cancer, whatever - you can overwrite it above COVID, labelling the latter as "complication".

[Mind]

Because there have not been any confirmed cases where I live yet...quite a large area in the northern U.S., people are not taking it very seriously. This weekend, a lot of people were walking around, a lot of elderly people even, going shopping, hanging out, going to bars...etc.

 

I was kind-of shocked. So I went on Facebook and did a "Facebook Live" video about it, warning everyone to be very concerned and to take it seriously. I tried my best to explain exponential growth and how the hospitals could easily be overwhelmed within days.

 

I would like to thank everyone for your reports here in the forum. In the beginning, it was not 100% clear how bad the outbreak would be, but now it looks fairly certain that without strict containment measures, it could be at least 10 times worse than the seasonal flu, which is pretty bad.

 

https://www.facebook...100011092306253

[Mr Serendipity]

I had a very bad immune system for the last decade, always getting sick for weeks, even though I was taking magnesium, zinc, vitamin c, vitamin e, b-complex, ginger, and other things. However when I finally added vitamin d to my stack after all those years, I have yet to be sick again and can actually say my immune system is strong now. There was only 1 time last week where I had green mucus for a day and then it disappeared. Obviously I don’t need to educate people on here on their stacks, I just wanted to give my anecdotal report that missing one important vitamin (d in my case) can make all the difference to getting ill,  even though you may supplement the other important ones for years.

 

As for food, panic buying, and stockpiling. Here in the U.K. they’re already limiting purchases in supermarkets. So I’d say try and stock up something, unless you have total faith that your government isn’t going to quarantine you in your houses for 2 weeks like Spain and Italy has done. I mean a months worth of food isn’t expensive nor needs shelves being stripped, people are just spoilt and think living off porridge or their own fat in a famine is beneath them. Each to their own I guess.

[Dorian Grey]

Over half of France's 300 coronavirus ICU patients under age 60

 

https://www.wnep.com...a4-1fe054733fba

 

40 to 50 Dutch corona patients in intensive care units: ‘More than half are under fifty"

 

https://www.archyde....fty-binnenland/

 

What's going on?  This is a really good update:

 

 

Jump to 14:20 where they talk about the size of the "inoculum" possibly determining whether you will be hit with advanced disease (or not!)

Edited by Dorian Grey, 16 March 2020 - 03:15 AM.

[ymc]

As expected, deaths outside China double again in three days and there are now more deaths outside China than China... 

 

Hubei: 3099/(3099+55094) = 5.33%

China outside Hubei: 114/(114+12656) = 0.89%

Rest of the World: 3358/(3358+8850) = 27.48%

 

China's trend continues whereas the RoW worsens significantly. Deaths are growing exponentially whereas recoveries are only linearly. That means it is currently out of control...

 

By the way, since China officially doesn't count positive cases without symptoms as cases since Feb 8 (actually I heard even people with fever are not counted and their Jiangsu province has 631 cases and 631 recoveries), so their numbers from Feb 8 should not be taken seriously.  Having said that, based on reading rumors on their forums, their hospitals do have fewer cases than the peak, so things are indeed improving. However, without accurate numbers, we can only rely on when will China re-open their schools to gauge China's status. So far this is not happening yet.

[Dorian Grey]

Care to glance through the obits in Lombardy Italy?

 

https://www.dailymai...30-minutes.html

 

Better make some coffee first.  

[Mind]

I know it is not popular, but it is still an odd data point in this outbreak.

 

Even though it is getting more difficult to track case profiles in the U.S., it is still true that no healthy person under 70 has died of the disease. Here are references to 3 recent cases in Oregon, New York, and Virginia (all elderly).

 

https://www.nytimes....s-us-cases.html

https://www.washingt...rginia-updates/

https://lmtribune.co...551bcae982.html

 

If anyone has local reports in your area, please post here. As the cases expand in the U.S. it will be tougher to keep track of the case profiles.

 

I noticed 10 people in their 40s have died in Italy. Does anyone have data on those cases. Maybe an obituary. Were they perfectly healthy young people? People who had underlying immune/health issues? Not in great health (drug addict?)

[HBRU]

It's maybe a matter of virus charge... If you are infected by fee viruses the immunitary system has more time to learn them and react to them. One of this 40 years old that died in Italy was a sanitary worker that probably was exposed by big virus quantity since the beginning of the infection. One of the best things to do at the beginning of the infection are very hot bads to reduce virus burden....

[Mind]

Here are 3 more recent fatalities in the U.S. All were elderly and seriously ill.

 

https://www.thedenve...-cases-in-china

https://www.wcnc.com...a7-ac8b2ab32648

[lancebr]

This is a sad story:

 

https://nypost.com/2...irus-at-age-21/

[Mind]

Wherever I look, everywhere is the same story, seriously ill or elderly + seriously ill becoming fatalities. South Dakota, Georgia, and Kansas.

 

https://www.kfyrtv.c...-568680941.html

https://www.wjbf.com...ted-in-georgia/

https://www.foxnews....ronavirus-death

Edited by Mind, 16 March 2020 - 09:02 PM.

[Mind]

This is a sad story:

 

https://nypost.com/2...irus-at-age-21/

 

Very sad. Leukemia + Corona virus, not a good combination

[lancebr]

Wherever I look, everywhere is the same story, seriously ill or elderly + seriously ill becoming fatalities. South Dakota, Georgia, and Kansas.

 

https://www.kfyrtv.c...-568680941.html

https://www.wjbf.com...ted-in-georgia/

https://www.foxnews....ronavirus-death

 

So of all the stories you have seen are there any elderly (ie 70+) that have

died and did NOT have any underlying conditions?

 

The stories I have seen so far it sounds like the elderly who have died have

had underlying conditions.
 

[Mind]

So of all the stories you have seen are there any elderly (ie 70+) that have

died and did NOT have any underlying conditions?

 

The stories I have seen so far it sounds like the elderly who have died have

had underlying conditions.
 

 

Sorry if it was confusing. I cannot confirm from news reports that every elderly case was someone in who was also in bad health, but almost all were in "nursing homes" or "elder care" facilities, where one would assume they were in poor health. Either that, or the article did affirmatively state that they had "underlying health conditions".

[Mind]

The New York Times is keeping track of the tallies (kind-of a morbid media hype thing), but they are not providing much context: https://www.nytimes....s-us-cases.html

 

They did state, as we have found also:

 

Among the people in the United States who have died from coronavirus, almost all have been in their 70s, 80s or 90s. The youngest known fatality was a man in his 40s.

 

As noted earlier the person in their 40s and 2 people in their 50s that passed-away, had "underlying health conditions"

 

With cases exploding in the U.S. this week, I will stop trying to run down all of the elderly cases and just focus on people under 70, if possible. I am sure there will be many. I have seen some videos of younger survivors who had serious conditions. A couple of them were near death before recovering.

Edited by Mind, 16 March 2020 - 09:49 PM.

[Adamzski]

Im in South Korea here, have been here for years. 
There are government cameras covering every square mm of the city I'm not joking or exaggerating. Also, everyone uses credit cards, like 95% of all transactions. So it is not very hard to track exposures, we have maps of where all the infected people have been etc and get kinda amber cellular alerts.
200 or so infected in Seoul a city of 34 million people(greater Seoul area).
EVERYONE wears masks.

 

I'm looking at whats going on in my home country and around the world thinking WTF, runs on toilet paper and guns and ammo haha, amazing.

Feel fine here not too worried at all, like they had a building 2 miles from me a call centre with 90 infected. 

Wear masks people, carry alcohol spray and spray your hands, credit cards, PHONE, keys and wallets OFTEN.

[mikeinnaples]

My person plugged into the italian ministry of health and on the ground there in the middle of this is saying about 25% of the infected needed medical attention to survive that would otherwise die without it.  I think as long as the health care systems aren't overloaded, this is manageable. The problem is going to be in places without both the quantity and quality of care and for those in risk groups. Looks like they also traced their spread from germany, not china by analyzing the virus mutations and tracking it backwards

[Mind]

King5 in Washington State is doing the best job of providing context, listing the ages and situations of the deceased. https://www.king5.co...77-1f32675b802b

 

I noticed that the list includes 2 people listed without "underlying heath problems". This does not mean they were healthy - perhaps the news organization could not get the details. Also notice on the list that most of the fatalities, which are almost half of the fatalities in the entire United States (so far), are people in their 80s and 90s, which is almost exactly the same mortality profile as in every other country.

[HBRU]

It's going towards 10%

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[lancebr]

King5 in Washington State is doing the best job of providing context, listing the ages and situations of the deceased. https://www.king5.co...77-1f32675b802b

 

I noticed that the list includes 2 people listed without "underlying heath problems". This does not mean they were healthy - perhaps the news organization could not get the details. Also notice on the list that most of the fatalities, which are almost half of the fatalities in the entire United States (so far), are people in their 80s and 90s, which is almost exactly the same mortality profile as in every other country.

 

Sad that so many in the nursing homes was hit with this virus.  I noticed there were a few in their 50's

and I have heard that in other countries there are younger ones that are ending up in intensive care.

 

The big question is how many people have gotten this virus and had no effect from it or just had

mild symptoms....this would really change the percentage of death rate if we knew those numbers.
 

[lancebr]

They just reported that schools and restaurants in Wuhan China are reopening showing that

they believe they got it under control over there.

 

So they say it does show that it can be controlled.

[Mind]

Two deaths in Indiana, both over 60, at least one with "underlying health conditions" https://www.wuzr.com...n-indianapolis/

 

One death in Texas. A man over 90: https://www.foxnews....-recorded-texas

[kurdishfella]

how many kids and teens have died ?