1539 replies to this topic

[Mind]

how many kids and teens have died ?

 

Maybe someone else can also chime in here, but as far as I have scoured the authoritative sources (outside of China), no one under 30 has died from this disease.

[Mind]

The number of Wuhan coronavirus cases in China is quadrupling every 7 days.

If you look at the graph of the number of reported cases in this live updated page (bottom right corner), you can see that the numbers increase by roughly a factor of 4 each week. 

There are presently nearly 30,000 reported cases in China.
 
So if the virus cannot be contained, and this exponential trend continues, in each successive week, the number of infected cases in China may pan out like this:
 
My Predicted Number of Cases of

Wuhan Coronavirus by Week In China

(Figures increase by fourfold each week)

 

Friday 07 Feb 2020 — 30K
Friday 14 Feb 2020 — 120K
Friday 21 Feb 2020 — 480K
Friday 28 Feb 2020 — 1.9M 
Friday 06 Mar 2020 — 7.7M
Friday 13 Mar 2020 — 31M 

Friday 20 Mar 2020 — 123M 
Friday 27 Mar 2020 — 492M 

​Friday 03 Apr 2020 — 2B 
 
So in other words, at around the beginning of April 2020, we might expect 2 billion Chinese citizens to have caught the Wuhan coronavirus. At the current death rate of 2%, that means there will be a predicted 20 million deaths in China by the beginning of April.

 

Well, it looks like a militarized quarantine, with mass arrests, literally padlocking some people in their apartments for days, and dragging the unwilling through the streets off to containment, stopped the spread pretty well in China. Of course, China has the largest standing army I the world and effectively no individual rights, so it worked. Other countries need to rely on more voluntary cooperation.

[HBRU]

In Italy now people are quite ok in collaboration, but not complete. So results will be mixed... anyway this epidemic is better not to stop but just slow down it enough to be manageable by hospitals and such... healthy & young people should pass the infection to create group immunity for protection of older & sick

[adamh]

It seems not just the older groups are affected

 

https://nypost.com/2...-of-terrifying/

 

A Belgian doctor working to battle the coronavirus says he’s treated several seriously ill young patients — and their lung scans were “nothing short of terrifying,” according to reports.

Dr. Ignace Demeyer, who works at a hospital in Aalst, said an increasing number of people between the ages of 30 and 50 have presented with severe symptoms, despite having “blank medical records” that show no underlying conditions that would make them high-risk, 

[Hip]

Well, it looks like a militarized quarantine, with mass arrests, literally padlocking some people in their apartments for days, and dragging the unwilling through the streets off to containment, stopped the spread pretty well in China. Of course, China has the largest standing army I the world and effectively no individual rights, so it worked. Other countries need to rely on more voluntary cooperation.

 

That's true, it will require voluntary cooperation. Some may refuse to cooperate, but provide the vast majority do, it should get the virus under control.

 

There have also been a number of laws introduced in European countries that give authorities power to act if people are not cooperating and thus putting the lives of others at risk.

[shp5]

https://www.faz.net/...t-16681450.html

 

After interviews with a great number of german covid infected, apparently "nearly all" of them experience a loss of taste and smell for a few days. 30% experience diarrhea.

[pamojja]

Well, it looks like a militarized quarantine, with mass arrests, literally padlocking some people in their apartments for days, and dragging the unwilling through the streets off to containment, stopped the spread pretty well in China. Of course, China has the largest standing army I the world and effectively no individual rights, so it worked. Other countries need to rely on more voluntary cooperation.

 

Something else additionally seem to have halted the exponential growth in China: a change in requirements for suspected cases!
 

 

https://www.greenmed...onavirus-exist?

 

The Chinese eventually woke up and, around February 16th required confirmed cases to meet the requirements for a suspected case, as well as a positive test. They may have put this new definition into practice earlier because after a massive addition of almost 16,000 confirmed cases on February 12th , the number fell dramatically each day and, by February 18th was under 500 cases, and continued to stay low.

But other countries did not learn. Korea, Japan and Italy (and perhaps other countries) have started doing tests on people with no epidemiological link, encouraging people with the vague symptoms that are part of the definition to come to hospital to get checked, and obviously following up with asymptomatic people with a connection to anybody who tests positive. Consequently, in mid to late February, cases in those countries started to skyrocket....

 

 

Results: When the infection rate of the close contacts and the sensitivity and specificity of reported results were taken as the point estimates, the positive predictive value of the active screening was only 19.67%, in contrast, the false-positive rate of positive results was 80.33%. The multivariate-probabilistic sensitivity analysis results supported the base-case findings, with a 75% probability for the false-positive rate of positive results over 47%. Conclusions: In the close contacts of COVID-19 patients, nearly half or even more of the 'asymptomatic infected individuals' reported in the active nucleic acid test screening might be false positives.

 

If that is true, and the distinctly different curves at https://gisanddata.m...rcgis.com/apps/ do suggest, than only the actual deaths can be taken for comparison between China and the rest of the world now.

[Mind]

It seems not just the older groups are affected

 

https://nypost.com/2...-of-terrifying/

 

A Belgian doctor working to battle the coronavirus says he’s treated several seriously ill young patients — and their lung scans were “nothing short of terrifying,” according to reports.

Dr. Ignace Demeyer, who works at a hospital in Aalst, said an increasing number of people between the ages of 30 and 50 have presented with severe symptoms, despite having “blank medical records” that show no underlying conditions that would make them high-risk, 

 

Some people have postedabout this earlier in the thread. For context, it would be good to know how may people have this type of severe reaction (lung issues) per year, when it comes to other corona viruses, influenza, or rhinovirus. I don't think that data is readily available, but someone should post it if they have it.

[Mind]

2 deaths in California that I was able to track down, both over 70 (one over 90) with underlying health issues: https://www.mercuryn...tracting-virus/

[BlueCloud]

"Coronavirus: NHS doctor warns 'a colleague is looking after several patients under 40"

https://news.sky.com...-point-11958542

 

[BlueCloud]

"More young people are being admitted to hospital in Italy with coronavirus, as the outbreak continues"

https://inews.co.uk/...ntinues-2451319

Edited by BlueCloud, 17 March 2020 - 11:14 PM.

[ymc]

https://www.nejm.org...d_railB_article

 

Among 366 kids (ie <=16yrs) hospitalized in Wuhan, 6 were found to be infected with coronavirus.

One of them went to ICU. Eventually, all of them recovered and were discharged.

[Casablanca]

Do people who have had Covid-19 develop immunity, and if so for how long? Existence of 'herd immunity' rests on these uncertainties. Evidence is slim: two rhesus macaques had immunity 28 days after first infection in this working paper https://www.biorxiv.....03.13.990226v1

 

[albedo]

I am pretty sure many of you have read this by Andreas Backhaus already, anyway thought useful also to log/repeat here:

Coronavirus: Why it’s so deadly in Italy

 

[xEva]

Is there an antibody test for this thing --  or only PCR?

 

 If it's been around for a while, maybe indeed some of us had it already (like Mind and others).

Usually, an antibody test is simpler and cheaper than PCR and, hopefully, could be made for home use -?

[Mind]

I see my post on the beneficial effects of bht against corona was deleted. Why for goodness sake? This is vital information. Also someone quoted my post and his was deleted too. 

 

http://www.delano.com/blog/?p=190

 

"200 to 400 milligrams of BHT ingested daily should be adequate to protect most people from infection by herpes and other lipid-coated viruses."

 

It was moved to the "Protecting from Coronavirus" discussion.

 

Many other posts suggesting supplementation were moved there as well. Sorry for not alerting you.

[Mind]

King5 has updated their website with more case profiles. Every fatality has been in elderly and/or infirm persons. https://www.king5.co...77-1f32675b802b

 

Washington state is where half the fatalities have occurred in the U.S. 

 

I haven't had time today to check other recent fatalities in the U.S but it is still the case that this virus is most deadly among the elderly and those with serious health issues. I can't say for sure that no healthy person under 70 has yet to die from the disease, but the mortality profile in the U.S. has not yet included any younger healthy people - although a handful of young people (39-50 years) did have to be hospitalized.

[Mind]

WHO situation report for March 18th (stats lag behind other sites), has a crude unadjusted mortality ratio of 4.1% for the world. Europe and the Eastern Mediterranean region are driving the mortality rate lately, strip out those and the mortality rate is 3% (with China included.

[Hebbeh]

https://www.msn.com/...ocid=spartandhp

 

Younger Adults Comprise Big Portion of Coronavirus Hospitalizations in U.S.

American adults of all ages — not just those in their 70s, 80s and 90s — are being seriously sickened by the coronavirus, according to a report on nearly 2,500 of the first recorded cases in the United States.  The report, issued Wednesday by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, found that — as in other countries — the oldest patients had the greatest likelihood of dying and of being hospitalized. But of the 508 patients known to have been hospitalized, 38 percent were notably younger — between 20 and 54. And nearly half of the 121 patients who were admitted to intensive care units were adults under 65, the C.D.C. reported.  “I think everyone should be paying attention to this,” said Stephen S. Morse, a professor of epidemiology at Columbia University’s Mailman School of Public Health. “It’s not just going to be the elderly. There will be people age 20 and up. They do have to be careful, even if they think that they’re young and healthy.”  In the C.D.C. report, 20 percent of the hospitalized patients and 12 percent of the intensive care patients were between the ages of 20 and 44, basically spanning the millennial generation.  The new data represents a preliminary look at the first significant wave of cases in the United States that does not include people who returned to the country from Wuhan, China, or from Japan, the authors reported. Between Feb. 12 and March 16, there were 4,226 such cases reported to the C.D.C., the study says.  The ages were reported for 2,449 of those patients, the C.D.C. said, and of those, 6 percent were 85 and older, and 25 percent were between 65 and 84. Twenty-nine percent were aged 20 to 44.  Of the 44 people whose deaths were recorded in the report, 15 were age 85 or older and 20 were between the ages of 65 to 84. There were nine deaths among adults age 20 to 64, the report said.  Some of the patients in the study are still sick, the authors noted, so the results of their cases are unclear. Data was missing for a number of the cases, “which likely resulted in an underestimation of the outcomes,” the authors wrote. Because of the missing data, the authors presented percentages of hospitalizations, I.C.U. admissions and deaths as a range. The report also says that the limited testing available in the United States so far makes this report only an early snapshot of the crisis.  Still, the authors wrote, “these preliminary data also demonstrate that severe illness leading to hospitalization, including I.C.U. admission and death, can occur in adults of any age with Covid-19.”

 

 

[Florin]

0.9% death rate = 2.2 million Americans and 510,000 Britons dead

 

Dire new report forces U.S. and U.K. to change course on coronavirus strategy
https://www.axios.co...9b2b7c1b50.html

 

Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce COVID19 mortality and healthcare demand
https://www.imperial...-16-03-2020.pdf

[xEva]

The latest Italian statistics by region:
 

 
the first yellow column "hospitalized with symptoms"
second, "intensive therapy"
third, "isolated at home"
fourth, "total currently positive" 
 
green: "discharged, cured"
red: "deaths"
orange: "total"
grey: "tested"
 
 
So, they tested 165K total (starting with people w/symptoms and their contacts). Of them 35K were positive, 3K died, 4K recovered, 14K hospitalized, 2K are in intensive care and 12K convalesce at home.
 
50% hospitalized,  8% are in ICU,   42%  convalesce at home, 12% death rate of all positive cases (!)

Edited by xEva, 19 March 2020 - 06:38 AM.

[Mind]

 

Of the 44 people whose deaths were recorded in the report, 15 were age 85 or older and 20 were between the ages of 65 to 84. There were nine deaths among adults age 20 to 64, the report said.

 

I have tracked down nearly every death reported in local news outlets in the U.S. and I have yet to find any death of any healthy person under 70, although I did catch wind of a mother and two "children" dying  recently in New Jersey, but have yet to confirm.

[Mind]

Latest deaths in Florida and in Louisana, all elderly and in poor health (in their 80s an 90s).

 

https://www.lewrockw...ath-in-florida/

 

https://www.nola.com...1d2bd31016.html

[Mind]

"More young people are being admitted to hospital in Italy with coronavirus, as the outbreak continues"

https://inews.co.uk/...ntinues-2451319

 

 

To put this into context, does anyone have any data regarding the normal number of people (in different age groups) that require hospitalization for respiratory symptoms/illness each year, due to various viral infections.

 

I wonder if because of the great concern over this new virus, that more people than average are going to a hospital. In a normal flu season, I wonder if a lot of them would have stayed home and suffered through.

 

My lungs and trachea took a hit from whatever respiratory illness I had back in February. I still have some lingering bronchial issues. Even though the significant symptoms lasted over a week,I didn't go to the hospital.

[xEva]

My lungs and trachea took a hit from whatever respiratory illness I had back in February. I still have some lingering bronchial issues. Even though the significant symptoms lasted over a week,I didn't go to the hospital.

 

Mind: did you find out if there is an antibody test for COVID-19?

 

 

Everybody: can you imagine relief a person would feel after finding out that they have had and survived it already

[caliban]

recent data from Wuhan - death rate 1.4 (lower than many feared) and clear age-relevance: 

 

Using public and published information, we estimate that the overall symptomatic case fatality risk (the probability of dying after developing symptoms) of COVID-19 in Wuhan was 1.4% (0.9–2.1%), which is substantially lower than both the corresponding crude or naïve confirmed case fatality risk (2,169/48,557 = 4.5%) and the approximator1 of deaths/deaths + recoveries (2,169/2,169 + 17,572 = 11%) as of 29 February 2020. Compared to those aged 30–59 years, those aged below 30 and above 59 years were 0.6 (0.3–1.1) and 5.1 (4.2–6.1) times more likely to die after developing symptoms. The risk of symptomatic infection increased with age (for example, at ~4% per year among adults aged 30–60 years).

→ source (external link)

 

[BlueCloud]

“ Younger Adults Make Up Big Portion of Coronavirus Hospitalizations in U.S.

New C.D.C. data shows that nearly 40 percent of patients sick enough to be hospitalized were age 20 to 54. But the risk of dying was significantly higher in older people. “ 

 

https://www.nytimes....ung-people.html

Edited by BlueCloud, 19 March 2020 - 06:23 PM.

[xEva]

I think very low death rates in young people give a mistaken impression that the illness in them always takes a mild course. In Italy, younger people were more likely to survive when ventilated or placed in ICU units, while older people, especially with underlying conditions, tended to die despite the most heroic measures (which was the case with the very first cases, while healthcare resources were not yet strained, like with Diamond Princess).

 

Thus overworked Drs in Italy have been triaging ventilators and ICU beds to patients "more likely to be helped" which usually were the younger people. Clearly, death rates among young people were affected by the availability of ventilators and ICUs, without which many would certainly die.

Edited by xEva, 19 March 2020 - 06:45 PM.

[Mind]

 

“ Younger Adults Make Up Big Portion of Coronavirus Hospitalizations in U.S.

New C.D.C. data shows that nearly 40 percent of patients sick enough to be hospitalized were age 20 to 54. But the risk of dying was significantly higher in older people. “ 

 

https://www.nytimes....ung-people.html

 

 

Thanks a bunch for providing some recent data.

 

To put it into context, it would be good to know how many people (percentage-wise) from 20 to 54, think they are sick enough to be hospitalized during a normal flu season.

 

I have heard from several people who I gave my sickness to (in February) - some younger than me, who went to the hospital to get checked-out. I didn't.

[Mind]

Here is some context for the mortality rate in older populations.

 

More than 5% mortality rate from the flu is common in nursing homes. (needs better references, I know)

 

8.4% mortality rate from another CoV variant in 2003 (in a nursing home).

 

The highest mortality rate I have seen from this current outbreak is 25% among men over 80 in Italy.

 

To put it into context, maybe this Corona variant is not "10 time worse than the flu". It still seems much worse for elderly populations than the regular flu, but maybe we are talking 3 to 5 times worse, instead of 10 times.

Edited by Mind, 19 March 2020 - 07:02 PM.