1539 replies to this topic

[pamojja]

I think it's hopeless containing the virus.

 

I'm the second day home from an almost 2 month vacation in South India. The situation there is bizarre, accoding to media there before I left, only 3 confirmed cases in Kerala. Now I see John Hopkins counts already 30 cases. And that in a country of 1.2 billion bordering to China with upto 480 million migrating workers! For example in a metropolis like Mumbay 106 returners from Wuhan have been in quarantine since middle of January: 104 of them turned out negative, 2 are still waiting for their test-results after 1 1/2 months! Away from the major airports no testing is done (I even would have paid for, but not available..). If in the countryside of India some ten-thousands die of pneumonia, it wouldn't be mentioned before's too late.

 

Therefore I wanted to get myself tested for not spreading it unneccesarily at home (as a social worker working with immunity compromised clients). Especially because on 11. Jan. I've slept for 5 hours in transit on Oman Airport in a waiting room with lots of Chinese - a middle aged couple just in 1 meter ditance coughing all the time; 3 weeks later had a severe cold for 5 days (coughing, sneezing and running nose), and now since 5 days difficulties in swallowing. And believe possibly being one of the 80% infected will slight symptoms.

 

However, everyone here follows the rules from the ministry of health, which permits testing only of Individuals returning from China, South Korea, Italy and Iran (allegedly for saving resources..). Nobody seems to give a shit about the lacking health-care system in most of India, and don't think it over themself.

 

Game over. It just will take its course.

[ymc]

https://www.exmoo.co...cle/143151.html

 

Well, Macau is now officially free of coronavirus as all 10 cases recovered. So it can be done. For countries that simply give up without trying will pay for this with their citizens' lives, these governments deserve to be voted out in the next election cycle if this option is available.

[Moumou]

17% death rating... You should mitigate the death rating, because many people will get it and wont be reported. They will just have a cough and flu-like fever. It is mostly 17% of vulnerable and over 50 years old people, as they represent maybe 20%-25% of population in europe, its should be around 4% death rate maximum at the moment.

 

They are two strains currently in circulation, one is more aggressive and will hit fast & first on elders and people with immune, pulmonary or cardiopathic diseases. Plus the unlucky ones with "bad" pool of  genes.

Edited by Moumou, 06 March 2020 - 12:56 PM.

[Blu]

11 deaths reported in the U.S. The deaths remain among the very old and infirm. No healthy young(er) people he fallen victim to the virus.

 

Any Italian people frequenting this discussion? I have been trying to get local information about the Italian outbreak (because U.S. mainstream media is awful about providing details.)

 

Here in Italy cases are piling up and the fatality rate is stable between 3 and 4%. Mainly old people. However there are people in their thirties which get machine support for respiratory failure, and some fatality in healthy people of sixty.

 

The helathcare system, which is very good (especially in the North) is becoming clogged. We have 5900 IC beds, and the government is trying to add 3000 more ASAP. Healthcare workers complain of lack of PPE and no training to use it. In those areas with many cases in North Italy, all routine operations are postponed while hospitals are trying to free as much beds as possible for the inflow of COVID patients. Operations for critical situations, like cancer, organ failure etc., are performed according to schedule.

 

Churchs and gyms are closed. All schools and universities are closed until 15 March and this will soon be extended to 3 April. At the same time, malls, restaurants, bar and undergrounds are open. The tourism (a 40B euros industry) is already semi-destroyed. Flights get cancelled, but trains and buses don't.

 

Some office is closed, some is doing work from home, some was closed but already re-opened. A lot of workers are on temporary social care (which is quite supportive in Italy, but of course has neat limits); others are on leaves because nobody can care for their children, with closed schools.

 

Meanwhile, in common life there is an unreal mix of panic and apatic disinterest, depending on areas.

 

17% death rating... You should mitigate the death rating, because many people will get it and wont be reported. They will just have a cough and flu-like fever. It is mostly 17% of vulnerable and over 50 years old people, as they represent maybe 20%-25% of population in europe, its should be around 4% death rate maximum at the moment.

 

They are two strains currently in circulation, one is more aggressive and will hit fast & first on elders and people with immune, pulmonary or cardiopathic diseases. Plus the unlucky ones with "bad" pool of  genes.

There are conflicting opinions on this. According to the head of WHO delegation to Wuhan, the Chinese data support a different situation. The virus is not hugely spread and there are few asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic infections.

[albedo]

Some stats but likely already old:

Who is getting sick, and how sick? A breakdown of coronavirus risk by demographic factors

https://www.statnews...raphic-factors/

[mikeinnaples]

https://gisanddata.m...423467b48e9ecf6

 

This is the best comprehensive site I have seen on this pandemic as it occurs. Courtesy of John Hopkins CSSE

Edited by mikeinnaples, 06 March 2020 - 10:53 PM.

[ymc]

Since deaths outside China doubled again, let me update the mortality rate:

 

Hubei: 2959/(2959+43468) = 6.37%

mainland China outside Hubei: 111/(111+11936) = 0.92%

Rest of the World: 420/(420+1848) = 18.52%

 

The trend of China decreasing and RoW increasing continues...   

[kurdishfella]

Damn I think I have this.... for 1 week I have all the symptoms and been feeling nauseous not much but mild I guess lasts for few mins. I think my whole family is infected with the less aggressive strain since I haven't left the house for a while so they infected me. We live in sweden in a city with only like 200k people... so I think this has spread pretty much everywhere and everyone has it but does not know. I am expecting the symptoms to get worse soon though. My stool has many red small particles in them and I think that might be the virus since that's the way it looks. Luckily I am taking lithium which has been shown to be beneficial for immune system because I thought my immune system was in pretty bad shape so idk how i am still alive and barely feeling anything guess worst has yet to happen. back in februari the swedish hospitals were overrun it was on the news and the doctors some of the quit due to stress. I think WHO needs to declare this as a pandemic and close everything because I am more worried about the more aggressive strain which is dangerous for non-asians (people that dont have slanted eyes).I have heard south east asians are more likely to die from it (both the strains but the milder non mutated is not as deathly for non asians) . But I think if everything closes ,schools etc we can stop the virus from mutating were the virus has yet to.

 

Lithium salts (Li) have been shown to influence viral infections by two distinct mechanisms: by inhibiting the cycle of virus replication and by stimulating protective host immune responses to viruses. Refer to Chapter 5 for an in depth discussion of stimulation of immune cell functions. Lithium has been shown to have anti-inflammatory effects (1), to enhance both lymphocyte and macrophage functions (2), to decrease the activity of suppressor T lymphocytes (3), and to enhance granulocyte function (4). The in vitro and in vivo antiviral activities of lithium are the focus of this chapter.

Also my mental health I have become more aggressive/angry  plus less empathetic? which is unusual for me and I saw a video from wuhan were covid 19 patients are dealing with mental problems now (maybe due to the trauma?) . Not sure if i am this way because I lost all hope for life or if it is the infection affecting my cognition. I find it sad how people still travel with this virus and spreading it further, i guess this virus triggers some chemicals in your brain making you want to travel so it can spread and stay alive (half joking)?

Edited by kurdishfella, 07 March 2020 - 02:50 AM.

[Hip]

 My stool has many red small particles in them and I think that might be the virus since that's the way it looks.

 

Are you not aware that viruses are microscopic, and completely invisible to the naked eye?

[kurdishfella]

Are you not aware that viruses are microscopic, and completely invisible to the naked eye?

Maybe it works differently in the gut since your body is getting rid of them at a fast pace so it builds up so much  and you can see? What else might it be because it is in time with my mild illness and this covid 19 and it is red. Its not blood. It looked very weird to me man. it really looked virus like.

Edited by kurdishfella, 07 March 2020 - 02:34 AM.

[Hip]

Maybe it works differently in the gut since your body is getting rid of them at a fast pace so it builds up so much  and you can see? What else might it be because it is in time with my mild illness and this covid 19 and it is red.

 

You can't see viruses directly. They are too small even to be seen under a microscope. 

 

And note that at the moment, only 1 person in every 100,000 has the virus. So your chances of having the COVID-19 coronavirus at this moment in time are 100,000 to one against.

 

You might have some other infection, but very, very unlikely to be COVID-19 at this point in time, unless you have travelled to high risk areas.

 

 

 

[kurdishfella]

could infected children be main spreaders but show no symptoms?

https://www.youtube....h?v=GhpeAfArbVU

 

Edited by kurdishfella, 07 March 2020 - 03:12 AM.

[Marconius]

There have been 128 reported cases in the Netherlands so far and most cases seem to be in the Southern half of the country. With one dead in Rotterdam.

[Hebbeh]

https://theweek.com/...residents-claim

 

 

China's claims of how it's handling coronavirus recovery should be taken with more than a few grains of salt.

Even before COVID-19 became a global crisis, Chinese leaders had been criticized for their handling of the situation and lack of transparency about the disease's progression. Things now look like they're on the upswing, and businesses even appear to be headed back to work — but whistleblowers and local officials tell Caixan that's just a carefully crafted ruse.

Beijing has spent much of the outbreak pushing districts to carry on business as usual, with some local governments subsidizing electricity costs and even installing mandatory productivity quotas. Zhejiang, a province east of the epicenter city of Wuhan, claimed as of Feb. 24 it had restored 98.6 percent of its pre-coronavirus work capacity.

But civil servants tell Caixan that businesses are actually faking these numbers. Beijing had started checking Zhejiang businesses' electricity consumption levels, so district officials ordered the companies to start leaving their lights and machinery on all day to drive the numbers up, one civil servant said. Businesses have reportedly falsified staff attendance logs as well — they "would rather waste a small amount of money on power than irritate local officials," Caixan writes.

In Wuhan, officials have tried to make it appear that recovery efforts are going smoothly. But when "central leaders" personally survey disinfecting regimens and food delivery, local officials "make a special effort" for them and them alone, one resident told Caixan. And in a video circulating on social media, residents can be seen shouting at visiting leaders from the apartments where they're being quarantined — "Fake, it's all fake." Read more at Caixan. Kathryn Krawczyk

 

 

[ymc]

Maybe it works differently in the gut since your body is getting rid of them at a fast pace so it builds up so much  and you can see? What else might it be because it is in time with my mild illness and this covid 19 and it is red. Its not blood. It looked very weird to me man. it really looked virus like.

 

Did you eat beetroot?

 

It can also be your blood that is caused by hemorrhoids or colorectal cancer.

[Mind]

I continue to suspect the true mortality rate is much much lower than being written about here or elsewhere.

 

Given how easily the virus spreads, I suspect tens of thousands, or even hundreds of thousands (maybe millions) of people have it in the US. I even think I have it and it has spread around my work and community. There have been hardly any restrictions on travel, meetings, events, since this began. There is no way this hasn't already spread across the US and almost every country in the world.

 

In addition, why have no children in China caught the disease (if the communists can be believed)? Because they are magic unicorn children? No. Because the symptoms are so mild in young and healthy people that they don't even get tested. Remember, variations of the corona virus have been around for decades all over the world. Most people probably have some partial immunity to this class of virus.

 

Here are a couple of recent speculations about the true mortality rate:

 

https://www.drbrowns...and-prevention/

 

https://www.reuters....l-idUSW1N29L034

 

In Italy and the U.S. it is almost exclusively a deadly disease among the elderly and the seriously ill. I don't believe hardly any data coming out of China, but their (communist propaganda) mortality rate skewed heavily toward the elderly as well.

[Mind]

Something else that occurred to me is the misuse of the flu mortality statistics.

 

It has been often stated that the mortality rate from the seasonal flu is 0.05%

 

What is the seasonal flu mortality broken down by age group? If someone has that data readily available, please share. Otherwise I will go searching.

Edited by Mind, 07 March 2020 - 01:55 PM.

[Hip]

I continue to suspect the true mortality rate is much much lower than being written about here or elsewhere.

 

Given how easily the virus spreads, I suspect tens of thousands, or even hundreds of thousands (maybe millions) of people have it in the US. 

 

It's possible that more people have this virus than the reported figures, but don't know they have it because their symptoms are very mild. 

 

We will only be able to get accurate figures of the death rate when the pandemic is complete, and when we have developed an antibody test for this coronavirus. 

 

The current COVID-19 test is a PCR test, which detects the presence of the virus in the blood. This PCR test can tell you whether you are currently infected, but cannot tell you whether you have been previously infected and have now cleared the virus or gotten it under control.

 

Whereas an antibody test can detect if you are currently infected, but can also detect if you have been previously exposed to the virus, even if you are now better.

 

So we would need a COVID-19 antibody test to work out how the percentage of people who have caught COVID-19.

 

 

 

In addition, why have no children in China caught the disease (if the communists can be believed)?

 
According to this article, they have:
 

The number of reported COVID-19 cases in children remains low: of more than 44,000 confirmed cases from China, only 416 (less than 1 percent) were aged nine years or younger. No deaths were reported in this age group.

 
It is not unusual for viral infections to be much milder in infants. For example, chickenpox (caused by the varicella virus) is a mild illness in children, but can be quite severe in adults. That's why you are better off acquiring varicella when you are young.
 

 
 

I don't believe hardly any data coming out of China, but their (communist propaganda) mortality rate skewed heavily toward the elderly as well.

 
The data coming out of Chinense cities (other than Wuhan) resembles the data from other countries, so nothing to indicate any Chinese manipulation. They have been praised for their openness in sharing data.  

[ymc]

I continue to suspect the true mortality rate is much much lower than being written about here or elsewhere.

 

 

Well,  your way of calculating mortality rate is just deaths/cases. Since it takes around one month for someone to go from diagnosis to death, your number will simply be the lower bound to the true mortality rate as you can't go any lower than that given the information available.

 

I think the Diamond Princess can be a good scenario to estimate the true mortality rate as it has everyone on the ship tested and there are very high percentage of them are asymptotic. Now it stands at 7 deaths out of 696 cases for a mortality rate of 1%. The eventual mortality rate will be >=1%.

[Hip]

I think the Diamond Princess can be a good scenario to estimate the true mortality rate as it has everyone on the ship tested and there are very high percentage of them are asymptotic. Now it stands at 7 deaths out of 696 cases for a mortality rate of 1%. The eventual mortality rate will be >=1%.

 

Very good point!

[Mind]

Very good point!

 

If my memory serves correct, the deaths from the Diamond princess were once again only in the elderly - based upon mainstream media reporting in the the U.S. which is very low quality - so take it with a grain of salt.

[Blu]

Just a couple of reflections.

 

The SARS 1 epidemic started on November 2002. On March 2003, 4 months into the epidemics, its fatality rate was considered 2.5%, and 20% of patients required hospitalization.

The SARS 2 pandemic started on November 2019. On March 2020, 4 months into the epidemics, its fatality rate is considered 3.5%, and 20% of patients requires hospitalization.

 

After the SARS 1 epidemic ended, we got the accurate figures. 9.6% fatality rate. 40% of the recovered suffer from chronic illnesses like CFS, psychiatric disorders, pulmunary fibrosis. In several cases, the illness is totally disabling.

 

Meanwhile China extends quarantine from 14 to 28 days because of reinfections. SARS 2 (which BTW is a form of SARS) is already known to give pulmunary scarring, pulmunary fibrosis, severe T cell count decrease in recovered patients.

 

Second reflection. 20% people require hospitalization. 3.5% die despite hospitalization. Many more are still in ICU because if not they risk life. In North Italy, Lombardia hospitals just alerted the government that they are running out of ICU beds. If the contagion spreads, part of that 20% will require intensive care, they won't get it because of exhausted resources, and some or many will die.

 

I am not so confident about this "it kills just the very olds" meme. It's the new "it's just another flu". And, like the latter, the former could soon be an outdated hope.

Edited by Blu, 07 March 2020 - 06:15 PM.

[Hip]

If my memory serves correct, the deaths from the Diamond princess were once again only in the elderly

 

Good point. I found this informative paper published two days ago on 5 March 2020. Table 2 shows the exact number of passengers in each age range.

 

There were 3,711 people on the ship, and 58% of the passengers were aged 60 and above. So certainly an older crowd.

 

Table 2 shows that so far there have been 7 deaths out of the infected Diamond Princess passengers, 6 of those in the 70-79 age bracket, and 1 in the 80-89 bracket. More deaths are expected.

 

 

The interesting thing to observe from table 2 is the ratio of systematic to asymptomatic cases. Since the vast majority of people on the Diamond Princess were tested for the virus, the data gives a very good indication of this systematic / asymptomatic ratio.

 

If you count up all the cases, you find a 301 were infected with symptoms, and 318 infected without symptoms. So the ratio is approximately 1:1. Although in younger people, there were far more symptomatic cases than asymptomatic, for some reason. 

 

 

 

So I don't think the idea holds that there are millions of asymptomatic cases going around the world unnoticed. This Diamond Princess study shows that the number of asymptomatic cases is roughly equal to (or less than, if you factor in the younger people) the number of symptomatic cases.

Edited by Hip, 07 March 2020 - 06:42 PM.

[kurdishfella]

Q: coronavirus has mutated into covid 19 which further in itself has more aggressive strains? If most people already have immunity to the regular coronaviruses that comes with the flu or whatever why is there no immunity to the mutated one? I guess there is a difference between mutation and strains of the mutated? If you have immunity to coronavirus which comes with the flu it does not mean you will be immune to the mutated covid 19 but if you have covid 19 and overcame it you will also to all its strains or just more likely to survive?

 

does not the seasonal flu mutated because people become immune to it, how is covid 19 different is it because it has mutated too much and way more aggressive. also why does this virus cause death is not the goal of the virus to survive in the organism, does it happen because the body attacks the virus but if it leaves the virus alone nothing would happen or what... or can it only thrive in a certain way but kills the human unknowingly 

Edited by kurdishfella, 08 March 2020 - 12:22 AM.

[kurdishfella]

hundreds infected confirmed in sweden btw and I think they do way more testing than in US who only has like 300 confirmed cases..

Sweden 10 million USA 300 million. it is probably spreading HARD in America.

 

here is some new info i have found:

 

Virus could be spread by AC; 96 million cases expected, etc.

CDC has tested 1,583 people for coronavirus

US hospitals are preparing for 96 MILLION coronavirus infections and nearly HALF A MILLION deaths, leaked documents reveal   

Edited by kurdishfella, 08 March 2020 - 03:27 AM.

[ymc]

 

hundreds infected confirmed in sweden btw and I think they do way more testing than in US who only has like 300 confirmed cases..

Sweden 10 million USA 300 million. it is probably spreading HARD in America.

 

 

I think for countries with free media, number of deaths per capita is a good way to gauge the severeness of the epidermic. This is because it would be hard for medical professionals to miss out pneumonia deaths. So I would say US is about as severe as Japan. At this point, it is still controllable if effective measures are adopted.

[kurdishfella]

yes i agree but i was just saying US does not test much so it  probably has a lot more, way more. nothing to do with media. if they test like south korea does USA numbers will probably sky rocket . Also the incubation period is very long too and I think you can test negative even if you have it and it can disappear and reappear during this time giving positives and negatives and this is why I think the incubation time is way longer (3 months), people think it is gone when it isn't and think it has reappeared when it never disappear to begin with?.. Regarding media I think they are all controlled but that's just me. You guys on this thread and many others are just trying to find out the death rate by comparing numbers but I think you should focus on other things, we know it is life threatening and it has mutated into a more aggressive form or forms, trying to get an exact number on the death rate is not important but other things should be talked about. it is just wild guesses based on many speculations  and basically just spam waste of time. 

Edited by kurdishfella, 08 March 2020 - 04:10 AM.

[Mind]

Like others have mentioned, it seems very likely that there are thousands of cases (maybe millions) all over the U.S. Officials are not sure if the man who died (who was elderly and in ill-health) on the Grand Princess cruise ship had it before getting on or contracted it while on the ship, or in Hawaii, or in Mexico.

 

In any of the three scenarios, the virus must be widespread. It was early February when he got on the ship. So far (So far), I haven't heard of widespread deaths or hospitalizations in California, Mexico, or Hawaii. No one dropping dead in the streets, like the videos out of China.

[Mind]

The best information I could find about the flu mortality rate was this document found on the CDC website. On page 27 it says that in the US in 2014 the mortality rate from the flu among those 65 years and older was 97 per 100,000. According the National Vital statistics report from 2017, the flu mortality rate among the entire US population was 14.7 per 100,000.

 

So the seasonal flu is approximately 7 times more deadly among those 65 and older.

 

So far in the US, the corona virus is 14 times more deadly among those 65 and older (14 deaths from the 65 and older cohort, and one man in his 50s who had serious health issues).

 

Judging by the post from the Italian person earlier in the thread, it is similar in Italy.

Edited by Mind, 08 March 2020 - 02:19 PM.

[adamh]

One of the most hopeful observations has been that asians are catching it and dying of it more so than westerners. But is this true? Iran could be said to be asian, china is without a doubt and japan but now we see many problems in italy. Italy seems to be a hotbed of virus but they are mostly western. If we are to cling to our hope that whites have a lower rate then that anomaly must be explained.

 

I do not believe any of the data out of china nor the cdc or who figures on china which all are based on what china gives them. China has had it the longest period of time and the death rate from non govt reports seems to show a high rate, well above the 2 or 3% we like to think is the max. Were they more vulnerable due to genetics, diet, or some other local factor like pollution? Or is the situation in italy what we will see world wide soon? 

 

It seems inevitable everyone will catch it sooner or later. Best thing is to build up your health via exercise, taking vitamins and supplements and eating right. Also wash your hands often and buy some anti virals if any are available. I ordered some myself.