1539 replies to this topic

[kurdishfella]

One of the most hopeful observations has been that asians are catching it and dying of it more so than westerners. But is this true? Iran could be said to be asian, china is without a doubt and japan but now we see many problems in italy. Italy seems to be a hotbed of virus but they are mostly western. If we are to cling to our hope that whites have a lower rate then that anomaly must be explained.

 

I do not believe any of the data out of china nor the cdc or who figures on china which all are based on what china gives them. China has had it the longest period of time and the death rate from non govt reports seems to show a high rate, well above the 2 or 3% we like to think is the max. Were they more vulnerable due to genetics, diet, or some other local factor like pollution? Or is the situation in italy what we will see world wide soon? 

 

It seems inevitable everyone will catch it sooner or later. Best thing is to build up your health via exercise, taking vitamins and supplements and eating right. Also wash your hands often and buy some anti virals if any are available. I ordered some myself.

I have heard that coronavirus  DNA/RNA is stable and mutates slowly and it is only the mutated aggressive strains which is more dangerous for caucasians or negroids. But both versions are dangerous for people with compromised immune system or people with slanted eyes (asian-Mongoloids)because they have different immune system (weaker) because they are very mixed as opposed to other races. So southeast asians ,china, japan and korea. When you mix with a different race your immune system usually becomes weaker overtime but in the short term it could be beneficial so race-mixing can go against you or not but usually it has negatives (more of than positives).

https://www.newscien...ne-more-deadly/

Edited by kurdishfella, 08 March 2020 - 07:36 PM.

[Blu]

Judging by the post from the Italian person earlier in the thread, it is similar in Italy.

 

What we are learning from the Lombardia situation is: both young and old people face life-threatening conditions. But, whereas intensive and critical care units keep young people alive, the same critical care is not enough to save many of the older ones.

 

Yesterday, the association of resuscitators in Italy circulated a memorandum. It simply explain that, if and when there aren't enough resources for everybody, priority must be given to the patient with better chances of recovery.

 

Please don't fall for the idea "it only kills the very old". It doesn't. The availability of intensive care is crucial to the recovery of people, regardless the age.

Edited by Blu, 08 March 2020 - 07:27 PM.

[Mind]

Thanks for the information Blu.

 

WHO latest situation report has a gross/unadjusted mortality rate of 2% as of today.

 

Interesting patterns. Iran and Italy have higher mortality rates (2 and 4%) than South Korea (less than 1%) and South Korea has been dealing with it for a little longer period of time.

Edited by Mind, 08 March 2020 - 09:21 PM.

[pamojja]

Interesting patterns. Iran and Italy have higher mortality rates (2 and 4%) than South Korea (less than 1%) and South Korea has been dealing with it for a little longer period of time.

 

Guess can be explained by the easy access to testing in South Korea, catching all cases  before becoming symptomatic. When testing is limited less asymptomatically infected will be known, and the mortality appears higher.

 

However, Italy seems to improve according to https://gisanddata.m...423467b48e9ecf6 - and have just left South Korea in detected cases behind.

 

Therefore South Korea could give a better estimation of the ratio between fatalities to infected.

Edited by pamojja, 08 March 2020 - 08:59 PM.

[ambivalent]

Virus Expert Dr Richard Hatlett - naturally understated and honest and so all the more disconcerting:

 

 

 

[Hip]

I do not believe any of the data out of china nor the cdc or who figures on china which all are based on what china gives them. 

 

There is no rational reason to hold such views, especially given the praise the WHO are giving to Chinese openness and transparency in dealing with COVID-19. Your views are thus fake news, not based on any facts.  

[pamojja]

There is no rational reason to hold such views, especially given the praise the WHO are giving to Chinese openness and transparency in dealing with COVID-19. Your views are thus fake news, not based on any facts.  

 

Hip, shutting down differing opinions with name-calling - where we all know so little - and on account of appeal to authority, is not really helpful. Just ask yourself: Why the Chinese Government risks such an immense economic downturn, if things didn't turn out pretty terrible there? And the information about still withheld. A country which regularly faces approximately 88 100 annual influenca deaths without a sniffle?

 

https://www.thelance...(19)30163-X.pdf

 

We estimated that an annual average of 88 100 (95% CI
84 200–92 000) influenza-associated excess respiratory
deaths occurred in mainland China between 2010–11 and
2014–15, corresponding to 8·2% (95% CI 7·9–8·6) of all
respiratory deaths.

 

 

There are many disturbing video messages out of Wuhan which tell a different perspective. Like this one, which talks about 90 000 infected, already uploaded on Jan. 25th.:

 

 

Of course, the WHO and the Chinese Goverment in such a tire situation, would do anything to delay widespread panic.

Edited by pamojja, 09 March 2020 - 09:49 AM.

[pamojja]

Therefore South Korea could give a better estimation of the ratio between fatalities to infected.

 

Though so plausible, I never wished more to be wrong: Just taking in account countries where it is in full swing with restricted testing compared with South Korea, where freely accessible drive-through testing facilities are available:

 

South Korea 7478 infected / 53 death = 141

 

 

Italy 366 death x 141 = 51,640 - 7,161 detected = 44,479 potentially infected not tested

 

Iran 237 death x 141 = 33,439 - 7,375 detected = 26,064 potentially infected not tested

 

China 3008 death x 141 = 343,676 - 80,737 detected = 262,939 potentially infected not tested

 

Edited by pamojja, 09 March 2020 - 01:09 PM.

[Kalliste]

 

Fifteen years ago, a medical researcher named Michel Chrétien and his longtime collaborator Majambu Mbikay, a Congolese scientist, unhatched a theory in their Montreal laboratory. In the aftermath of the SARS epidemic that infected 8,000 patients in 26 countries, Chrétien and Mbikay, researchers at the Clinical Research Institute of Montreal (IRCM), began testing their idea that a derivative of quercetin, a plant compound known to help lower cholesterol and treat inflammatory disease—and common, at low doses, in over-the-counter medication—was a “broad spectrum” antiviral drug that could fight a range of viruses.

https://www.macleans...virus-outbreak/

[Mind]

I trust WHO, except for what they say about the communist Chinese response to the outbreak. Considering that information in China is very strictly controlled, I suspect WHO was allowed in, and to investigate, on the condition that they essentially praise the dictator publicly. Can't prove it, but that is how dictatorships usually work. It is something we wouldn't be able to find out until years later when someone writes a memoir, or the communist regime falls.

 

As of today, 22 deaths in the U.S., Every death has been among those 70+ or those with serious health issues.

[BlueCloud]

 

 

As of today, 22 deaths in the U.S., Every death has been among those 70+ or those with serious health issues.

 

The fact that most deaths happen in older populations, shouldn't occult the fact that there is also a non-negligeable amount of young people, even quite healthy, that end up in intensive care, even if deaths are quite rare. Being in intensive care is certainly not a desirable state and one has to be careful not to give younger people the impression that they are completely protected from this and end up being careless.

Edited by BlueCloud, 09 March 2020 - 06:56 PM.

[ymc]

I took only three days for the deaths outside China to double. In the current rate, we can expect worldwide deaths to double that of China in two weeks.

 

Hubei: 3024/(3024+47585) = 5.98%

China outside Hubei: 112/(112+12312) = 0.9%

Rest of the World: 877/(877+3896) = 18.37%

 

Mortality rate seems to stabilize for everyone involved...

 

For the three success models of containment, Macau takes the top with zero remaining cases. Hong Kong overtook Singapore with 53 cases. Singapore falls into the third place at 67 due to recent surge in cases.

[pamojja]

The replay of a recent interview with Andrew W. Saul on this matter: https://event.webina...9va5i62u52sy6m7

[Mind]

I suspect the "epidemic of testing" is now hitting the U.S.

 

New cases are popping up and the question pops up "how did this happen?". Quarantine everything!!! Send in the National Guard!!!

 

The corona virus has been spreading across the U.S. for 2 months now. It is everywhere. There is no way it cannot be everywhere. It spreads asymptomatically. There have been no travel restrictions within the U.S. Now that millions of testing kits are available, there will be millions of confirmed cases.

 

I predict we will be treated to media hype for the next couple of weeks that "the corona virus is spreading like wildfire....run for the hills....fight over toilet paper..shut down everything!!"

 

In reality, it is in every state already. Right now. Today. Sadly, the "epidemic of testing" will probably lead to hysteria and panic. Instead we should be focusing on protecting the vulnerable/elderly, while everyone else soldiers-on and makes sure critical supplies and economic activity continues. Shutting down all work/travel/business for a month will lead to a lot of indirect death and suffering.

Edited by Mind, 10 March 2020 - 09:16 PM.

[Hebbeh]

https://trib.al/XsxbhNS

[Hebbeh]

https://www.google.c...-breaking-point

https://www.google.c...s-survival/amp/

https://www.google.c...ke-war-11954229

As Italy battles Europe's worst outbreak, and with the virus spreading fast, doctors are making comparisons to war-time triage medics deciding who lives, who dies and who gets access to the limited number of intensive unit beds.

With no clear sign of when the epidemic will spike, anesthesiologists and doctors are being called on to make increasingly tough calls on who gets access to beds and respirators when there are not enough to go around.

“It is a fact that we will have to choose [whom to treat] and this choice will be entrusted to individual operators on the ground who may find themselves having ethical problems,” said a doctor working in one of Milan’s largest hospitals.

For now, the marching orders are: Save scarce resources for those patients who have the greatest chance of survival. That means prioritizing younger, otherwise healthy patients over older patients or those with pre-existing conditions.

[pamojja]

https://trib.al/XsxbhNS

 
Wow, so many thanks for those essential pieces of information. So early reports out of hospitals in Italy now tell the exact same terrible situation as in Wuhan. And computer modelling even predicts similiar to happen in major countries in only about 9 to 13 days time. Therefore the time-window closed for getting the infection early, and before availabilty of ICU beds limited.

 

Not even enough time to panic anymore. But calmly getting ready for the very likely impossed self-isolation to large parts of society. Learning how to be self-sufficient for the course of 1-2 months, till the worst is over. And for those of us with preconditions at higher risk: ICUs beds available again.

 

Never wished to be more wrong with my accessments, than now.

[Mind]

The unadjusted overall death rate from WHO situation report today is 2.6%. It has been rising this week, mainly due to the shockingly high mortality rate in Italy, between 6 and 7%.

 

In the U.S. 28 deaths, 808 cases. No healthy person under 70 has died from the disease - yet.

[Hebbeh]

It is commonly accepted that there are at least 2 strains of Covid-19. A milder strain and a highly aggressive strain as experienced in Wuhan. It appears unfortunately that Italy is experiencing the aggressive strain like Wuhan while hopefully most of the rest of the world including the US is mainly experiencing the milder strain. Hopefully.

[ymc]

 

 

In reality, it is in every state already. Right now. Today. Sadly, the "epidemic of testing" will probably lead to hysteria and panic. Instead we should be focusing on protecting the vulnerable/elderly, while everyone else soldiers-on and makes sure critical supplies and economic activity continues. Shutting down all work/travel/business for a month will lead to a lot of indirect death and suffering.

 

As I said, as oppose to shutting everything down and do nothing, there are a lot of room in between. There are successful models of containment like Macau, Hong Kong and Singapore.

 

South Korea also seems to be able to contain it now as cases are now stabilizing.

 

I think countries should at least try these approaches before giving it up.

[ymc]

It is commonly accepted that there are at least 2 strains of Covid-19. A milder strain and a highly aggressive strain as experienced in Wuhan. It appears unfortunately that Italy is experiencing the aggressive strain like Wuhan while hopefully most of the rest of the world including the US is mainly experiencing the milder strain. Hopefully.

 

https://www.domedica...e-next-5-years/

 

Italy has a lack of doctors problem in the public hospitals due to budget cuts. This is similar to the lack of doctors problem in China.

 

I think US can fare much better in this department as there are no public hospitals. 

[lancebr]

So are there any sources that have broken down the data as to the individuals that have died in the U.S. so far.

 

I just saw a report that in South Dakota a man in his 60's has died that had underlying health conditions.

 

It would be nice to know of the ones who have died nationwide what exactly their specific ages are, what their gender is,

if they had underlying health conditions what exactly where those health conditions for each individual, and what their race is.

 

I keep hearing the ones who have died seem to have underling conditions but they never get specific as to what

those underlying conditions were for each individual.  It makes me wonder if they just use that as an excuse to

make people feel better when they hear about these deaths.

Edited by lancebr, 11 March 2020 - 01:09 AM.

[ymc]

So are there any sources that have broken down the data as to the individuals that have died in the U.S. so far.

 

I just saw a report that in South Dakota a man in his 60's has died that had underlying health conditions.

 

It would be nice to know of the ones who have died nationwide what exactly their specific ages are, what their gender is,

if they had underlying health conditions what exactly where those health conditions for each individual, and what their race is.

 

I keep hearing the ones who have died seem to have underling conditions but they never get specific as to what

those underlying conditions were for each individual.  It makes me wonder if they just use that as an excuse to

make people feel better when they hear about these deaths.

 

Hong Kong's coronavirus wiki contains the details of every single cases:

 

https://zh.wikipedia...i/2019冠狀病毒病香港疫情

 

But nothing is there in the US wiki:

https://en.wikipedia...e_United_States

 

So a lot can be done. It is up to you to decide whether these efforts are worth it to save lives.

[ymc]

As oppose to wildly guess the risk factors that led to poor prognosis of coronavirus, why not we look at

this Lancet article published on March 9?

 

https://www.thelance...67362305663.pdf

 

It suggests old age, elevated d-dmer levels and high SOFA score.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/D-dimer

https://en.wikipedia...wiki/SOFA_score

[ymc]

https://www.dailymai...t-capacity.html

 

Italy's medical system is overwhelmed now. Old people are left to die literally.

 

If the young people don't stay home and wear masks, they are actually killing the old people. That's why taking every measure to slow down the spread is so important.

 

Since deaths outside China is doubling every three days, it will come to your community sooner than you think. It is irresponsible to call this a deadlier flu.

[Moumou]

Here in France, they only test very sick people. Even our governement is infected. I speculate that I am also infected, in my case its like a mild headache, nausea and a breathing congestion.

Edited by Moumou, 11 March 2020 - 03:09 AM.

[kurdishfella]

Here in France, they only test very sick people. Even our governement is infected. I speculate that I am also infected, in my case its like a mild headache, nausea and a breathing congestion.

I have all these symptoms as well for the past 2 weeks aswell my whole family... When does this virus start to kill you I wonder..... I must have the weak strain of covid 19, there is a stronger mutated one but it is less spread because it hits you faster and you go to the hospital earlier than with the other weaker strain... I hear people coughing outside so much more than I usually do and I really think more people have it than we are aware off but just the weaker covid 19 strain which I keep saying is not harsh on non asians my personal opinion.

 

People say this was leaked on purpose to decrease population but that sounds so bs to me, I think it is a bio weapon but when I say that to others they  say well if it is a bio weapon then why would it kill asians faster which chinese people are , well because the leak was not on purpose it was accidently hence they were still working on it to modify it to kill whites because north americans are predominaly white and chinas  enemy. All governments are probably working on such weapons.

 

I think the goal should be to stop the spread of the more aggressive strains. But I wonder if you get the weak strain first and build immunity to it overcome it, will you be resistant to the stronger strains, somehow I doubt it, maybe easier for your body to fight it off but how much will it help..

 

I think italy and iran got the more aggressive strains first  because of the death toll, because it has to mutate so someone  from wuhan must have been infected after the weaker strain had been passed on for some time there and evolved, then they were flown to italy or iran and passed the more aggressive strain which mutated further and faster. this is why the spread seems slower but kills more. So I believe because asians have different immune system from caucasians, that when the weaker covid 19 had passed on and mutated by the  asians in wuhan to the caucasians that were flown back to italy or iran who probably were studying abroad, that the mutation of the virus was still weak for  them (non asians) but since it had mutated it was easier for it to keep mutating in order to get accustomed to caucasian immune system. srry for bad english and grammar.

Edited by kurdishfella, 11 March 2020 - 06:09 AM.

[Mind]

Aggressive or not aggressive strain, the risk profile skews heavily toward the elderly. This was the case in China. This is the case in Italy. This is the case in the U.S.

 

Someone asked about the case profile in the U.S. I have tracked this closely. Over 20 deaths occurred in association with the nursing home in Washington. All were in the 70s, 80s, or older.

 

All of the deaths outside of the nursing home were elderly or seriously ill. What I have done to keep track is to research the location of the cases. You can find the location of each case in the U.S. on the John's Hopkins interactive map. Once you know the location, go to a local news outlet in the place and you will find details about the person.

[Mind]

Italy running out of food and supplies due to the quarantine.

 

I have argued from the beginning that extreme quarantine measures will only lead to more death and destruction. Shutting down travel, businesses, factories, etc. will cause vastly more suffering and death than the virus ever could.

 

There is still time for smarter approaches - protecting the vulnerable and the elderly - while everyone else keeps society functioning. Alas, seeing the panic-mongering in the national news outlets today, it might be past the point of no return. People don't realize how connected our economy is - once a few dominoes fall - everything seizes up.

 

Seems the government solution so far is to, lower interest rates, print money, give tax breaks, etc... Not sure how that is going to help when there is no food and medical supplies in a couple of weeks.

[Hebbeh]

https://www.google.c...-in-the-us.html

Top US health official says the coronavirus is 10 times 'more lethal' than the seasonal flu.

"I can say we will see more cases and things will get worse than they are right now," Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, told a House committee Wednesday.
How much worse it will get depends on two things, he said: containing the influx of infected people coming from other countries and containing local outbreaks within the U.S.
Local and state officials have taken various measures to try to contain the spread of the virus, including closing schools and even mobilizing National Guard troops to a New York suburb.

A top U.S. health official said the worst is yet to come with the coronavirus outbreak that has already infected more than 1,000 people across the nation and resulted in at least 31 deaths.

"I can say we will see more cases and things will get worse than they are right now," Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, told the House Oversight and Reform Committee on Wednesday at a hearing on the nation's preparedness for the outbreak.

Fauci said COVID-19 is at least 10 times "more lethal" than the seasonal flu, even if the mortality rate drops far below the World Health Organization's current estimate of 3.4%.