914 replies to this topic

[OP2040]

So now that it's April, I think this is very interesting.  We are at ~40,000 Coronavirus deaths, while Flu deaths are at 29-59,000.  The case fatality rate has been coming down for months and lats time I checked it was estimated something like 4-5X more than flu. 

 

Am I missing something here or is this thing not much more deadly than the flu? Yes, I do understand that because it is new there are other risks.  For example, it will not not necessarily take a summer break, and it may come back year after year with no vaccine.  And so on..... But is this an unreasonable viewpoint aside from that?

[Dorian Grey]

So now that it's April, I think this is very interesting.  We are at ~40,000 Coronavirus deaths, while Flu deaths are at 29-59,000.  The case fatality rate has been coming down for months and lats time I checked it was estimated something like 4-5X more than flu. 

 

Am I missing something here or is this thing not much more deadly than the flu? Yes, I do understand that because it is new there are other risks.  For example, it will not not necessarily take a summer break, and it may come back year after year with no vaccine.  And so on..... But is this an unreasonable viewpoint aside from that?

 

The bulk of the 40K US deaths have occurred over just the last month or so.  This said, I doubt flattening the curve is going to affect total cases or deaths much over the coming year.  It's important to keep hospitals from being overwhelmed though, so the lock-down has had some value.  

 

An effective (and safe!) vaccine is so far away, it shouldn't be a factor in policy or protocol right now.  An effective treatment is the key to both economic and plague survival.  As we've seen in this thread, a combination therapy is most likely the key to effective treatment, but this simply doesn't seem to be happening in mainstream medicine yet.  

 

We need more Dr Zelenko's and fewer Dr Fauci's if we're going to pull out of this nose-dive before we hit ground.  

Edited by Dorian Grey, 19 April 2020 - 07:19 PM.

[sciack]

So now that it's April, I think this is very interesting.  We are at ~40,000 Coronavirus deaths, while Flu deaths are at 29-59,000.  The case fatality rate has been coming down for months and lats time I checked it was estimated something like 4-5X more than flu. 

 

Am I missing something here or is this thing not much more deadly than the flu? Yes, I do understand that because it is new there are other risks.  For example, it will not not necessarily take a summer break, and it may come back year after year with no vaccine.  And so on..... But is this an unreasonable viewpoint aside from that?

Are kidding or you live on another planet? Those deaths were kept low thanks to social distancing and lockdown. If there were none of it you would have had a super much higher number. I mean come on seriously what kind of comments ...

[OP2040]

Not sure of the need for such vitriol, I'm following the rules and not one of these protestors or conspiracy theorists.  But no idea is sacred and I like to explore ideas even when they are wrong. 

 

There are still quite a number of places that do not such rules in place, at least not remotely to the level we have.  I think Sweden is constantly being criticized for it.  And so we have examples to look at for comparison.  Although Sweden is getting hit late, it currently has 1,511 deaths from coronavirus.  I can't find flu death stats easily for Sweden, but I did find one stat for 2012 that showed 1,000 flu deaths,  This is still a pretty large difference but not extreme.  And when you consider that during a routine flue season, random deaths are not tested for flu and labeled as flu deaths if positive, then the difference could  be much less.

 

As i said, this is not over obviously, and it is new, and it could come back.  All reasons to be very concerned.  However, it IS striking how close it is to the flu virus, in particular because it is a new virus!

[sciack]

Sweden is the largest Northern European country with only 10 million people... it is not a dense populated place. Thank God! So the virus is slowing down a bit anyway it has spread more than expected and now politicians are saying they were wrong for not locking it down. Anyway it is a futile conversation we perfectly know how much more contagious and deadly if SARS coronavirus 2 compared to flu. These arguments were the same in US 2 months ago, we are passed that. It is already proven. Then if you believe the earth is flat there nothing I can do 

[OP2040]

Not to nitpick, but Sweden is not backing down on it's strategy at all.  It is in the news as of right now that they are continuing on with it.  What I find most intriguing about this lime of thinking is not so much to do with coronavirus anyway.  It's more to do with the idea that the flu itself is a tragedy on a mass scale that happens every year that we've learned to conveniently ignore because it affects all the people we've given up on.  I hope that is one thing people will take away from this whole ordeal, but I'm not holding my breath.

 

https://www.bloomber...oving-effective

 

 

Sweden’s unusual approach to fighting the coronavirus pandemic is starting to yield results, according to the country’s top epidemiologist.

 

Anders Tegnell, the architect behind Sweden’s relatively relaxed response to Covid-19, told local media the latest figures on infection rates and fatalities indicate the situation is starting to stabilize.

 

“We’re on a sort of plateau,” Tegnell told Swedish news agency TT.

 

 

I guess the government did recommend social distancing there, but that seems to be almost the only thing they did.  They certainly didn't shut down society. 

 

Another thing, I know we're not supposed to be overtly political in this thread.  But I am the farthest thing from a Trumper you can imagine.  I just don't want people thinking such naughty thoughts about me because that is not what motivates my comments.  I'm very much looking forward to President Biden.  That's all I'm gonna say about that.

[smithx]

So now that it's April, I think this is very interesting.  We are at ~40,000 Coronavirus deaths, while Flu deaths are at 29-59,000.  The case fatality rate has been coming down for months and lats time I checked it was estimated something like 4-5X more than flu. 

 

Am I missing something here or is this thing not much more deadly than the flu? Yes, I do understand that because it is new there are other risks.  For example, it will not not necessarily take a summer break, and it may come back year after year with no vaccine.  And so on..... But is this an unreasonable viewpoint aside from that?

 

Yes you're missing something.

 Screen Shot 2020-04-19 at 11.59.28 AM.png   102.06KB   2 downloads

 

The reason we haven't seen crazy numbers of deaths is because of all the social distancing that's been going on. If that is relaxed, everything will come back with a vengeance:

 

We further demonstrate that relaxing or reversing quarantine measures right now will lead to an exponential explosion in the infected case count, thus nullifying the role played by all measures implemented in the US since mid March 2020.

https://www.medrxiv....4.03.20052084v1

[OP2040]

Models are just fine if they're so lucky as to be based on numerous,  exactly correct assumptions.   I don't usually give them much credence.  The ones being bandied about for coronavirus are even more speculative than usual, which is saying a lot.  Often the models that are ongoing and self-correcting with new information, much like polling, can be fairly accurate.  IMHE works a but like that.  But a single study model, I'll pass.

[pamojja]

Guys, I really don't believe this discussion belongs here. And I hope it will be placed in its proper thread after. I'm absolutely no friend of Trump. But I hate seeing this tradegy being abused to bring him down. This is about saving lifes, not politics.

 

Sweden had its first death on Mar 11. Already on April 9. it had its highest mortality and since is going down sharply. 28 days to peak.

 

 Screenshot_2020-04-19 2020 coronavirus pandemic in Sweden - Wikipedia.png   139.42KB   1 downloads

 

US had its first death on Feb 9. On April 15 it erstwhile latest peak (might exceed again). But if it sticks: 45 days to peak.

 

 Screenshot_2020-04-19 2020 coronavirus pandemic in the United States - Wikipedia.png   249.61KB   1 downloads

 

The US, other than Sweden (who took a more targeted approach), had various brute lockdowns implemented at different times, the most affected areas by Mar 21. If the lockdowns would have really effective (I guess they weren't because of having been implemented wrongly - sending students home to their elderly parents - and too late), it should show a decline in deaths 17 days after lockdowns. Because 17 days is the average time covid takes from new infection to death, in those cases it does. And new infections should have ceased with lockdown. It clearly didn't.

 

Sweden is since long far better off without strict lockdown than the states.

 

 

I also believe those countries who choose strict lockdown were kind of self-selecting once the numbers shoot up together with sudden panic. Therefore kind of moot now comparing to those countries without lockdowns doing equally of even better now.

Edited by pamojja, 19 April 2020 - 09:45 PM.

[OP2040]

ok, fair enough, I'm dropping it.  Admins can create a new thread if they feel it's worth discussing.

 

For the record, I almost never down-vote people in these threads if someone has a genuine opinion on something and is not trolling.  Iit just causes more unneeded hostility.  I wish the site would get rid of almost all the negative icons.

[lancebr]

Yes you're missing something.

Screen Shot 2020-04-19 at 11.59.28 AM.png

 

The reason we haven't seen crazy numbers of deaths is because of all the social distancing that's been going on. If that is relaxed, everything will come back with a vengeance:

 

https://www.medrxiv....4.03.20052084v1

 

If there is no substantial treatment that is found by this coming fall and if this virus does not die off

as some think then it will be interesting to see what happens when the regular flu season starts

up with this new virus added in.

 

I saw this photo going around on facebook.

 

 

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Edited by lancebr, 19 April 2020 - 11:01 PM.

[smithx]

If there is no substantial treatment that is found by this coming fall and if this virus does not die off

as some think then it will be interesting to see what happens when the regular flu season starts

up with this new virus added in.

 

I saw this photo going around on facebook.

 

 1918 double hump.png   309.72KB   0 downloads

[smithx]

Models are just fine if they're so lucky as to be based on numerous,  exactly correct assumptions.   I don't usually give them much credence.  The ones being bandied about for coronavirus are even more speculative than usual, which is saying a lot.  Often the models that are ongoing and self-correcting with new information, much like polling, can be fairly accurate.  IMHE works a but like that.  But a single study model, I'll pass.

 

The graph I posted is not a model. It's actual numbers of deaths by day from the start of the outbreak, comparing COVID-19 to SARS and H1N1 influenza.

 

It's rather clear from just looking at the graph that COVID-19 is really nothing at all like the flu.

 

 Screen Shot 2020-04-19 at 11.59.28 AM.png   102.06KB   1 downloads

Edited by smithx, 19 April 2020 - 10:28 PM.

[Mr Serendipity]

Freedom is worth dying for.

[ymc]

The difference between flu and coronavirus is that flu has an effective treatment option called Tamiflu and also flu shots while the latter has none.

 

Also R0 of flu is about 1.2 and R0 of coronavirus is 5.7

 

The high number of flu deaths is due to many different types of flu viruses, e.g. at the species level, there are three human flu virus. On the other hand, SARS-2 is killing similar number of people in one month with only a single species.

 

When we have an effective treatment and/or vaccine, I am ok to treat it as just a more serious flu.

 

[xEva]

Are kidding or you live on another planet? Those deaths were kept low thanks to social distancing and lockdown. If there were none of it you would have had a super much higher number. I mean come on seriously what kind of comments ...

 

This post shows lack of certain understanding, which seems to be widespread. People actually believe that the measures listed above 'save lives'. They don't. All they do is postpone deaths.

 

It was believed until not long ago that alleviating the strain on the health system will save lives (by making ventilators available to all who may need them). Makeshift hospitals have remained empty and now that enough data have come home we know that 80% of those put on the ventilator still die and there is a strong suspicion that being put on a ventilator aggravates the lung injury caused by the virus.

 

But most importantly, there seems a lack of understanding that by the time this pandemic is over, everyone 'destined' to die from this virus will die -- unless you sequester them and them only for 2-3 years. And even after 2-3 years, when herd immunity is reached and vaccine proffered, there still will remain a small but real, non-zero chance for the 'vulnerable' to meet this virus.

 

Social distancing and lockdowns do not save lives. The do postpone inevitable deaths though, realistically, by months only.

Edited by xEva, 20 April 2020 - 03:02 AM.

[sciack]

This post shows lack of certain understanding, which seems to be widespread. People actually believe that the measures listed above 'save lives'. They don't. All they do is postpone deaths.

 

It was believed until not long ago that alleviating the strain on the health system will save lives (by making ventilators available to all who may need them). Makeshift hospitals have remained empty and now that enough data have come home we know that 80% of those put on the ventilator still die and there is a strong suspicion that being put on a ventilator aggravates the lung injury caused by the virus.

 

But most importantly, there seems a lack of understanding that by the time this pandemic is over, everyone 'destined' to die from this virus will die -- unless you sequester them and them only for 2-3 years. And even after 2-3 years, when herd immunity is reached and vaccine proffered, there still will remain a small but real, non-zero chance for the 'vulnerable' to meet this virus.

 

Social distancing and lockdowns do not save lives. The do postpone inevitable deaths though, realistically, by months only.

yes your lack of...

 

of course it save lives. Living it self is delaying your death. It is all about delaying death, everybody will die in the end, you want to delay it as much as possible. Delaying the virus is the key, then you can find in the meanwhile treatments and/or a vaccine. Not slowing it down and you let a highly contagious and much more deadly virus than flu to spread now that we do not have much idea how to cure it. In few weeks alone we will know much more about how to cure it so yes please lock down everything even for months If necessary. 

[xEva]

  In few weeks alone we will know much more about how to cure it so yes please lock down everything even for months If necessary. 

 

re: "even for months If necessary."

 

https://www.washingt...1911_story.html

 

Stirrings of unrest around the world could portend turmoil as economies collapse

 

As more than half the people in the world hunker down under some form of enforced confinement, stirrings of political and social unrest are pointing to a new, potentially turbulent phase in the global effort to stem the coronavirus pandemic.

Already, protests spurred by the collapse of economic activity have erupted in scattered locations around the world.

 

But the restrictions aimed at halting the coronavirus are also causing new poverty, new misery and new rumblings of discontent among the world’s working poor, for whom hunger can appear to be a more immediate threat than being infected.

 

With the IMF forecasting the worst global recession in nearly a century, there is a risk of “an increase in social unrest and violence that would greatly undermine our ability to fight the disease,” Guterres said.

 

A recent study by a U.N. think tank, the World Institute for Development Economics Research, warned that 500,000 people could slide into absolute poverty as a result of the pandemic’s restrictions, reversing three decades of progress in the war against poverty.

“If people don't work, they don’t get paid, and there is a risk of hunger,” said Batista. “The natural response is unrest.”

 

“I fear social explosions,” he said. “This will not be about democracy. This will be about abject poverty. This is where the danger lies. This will be about starvation.”

 

Don't think that the US will be spared.

[pamojja]

If there is no substantial treatment that is found by this coming fall and if this virus does not die off

as some think then it will be interesting to see what happens when the regular flu season starts

up with this new virus added in.

 

I saw this photo going around on facebook.

 

 

 

Above text and below graphic of the 1918 flu from Denver seems to me a bid biased. In this national geographic article there are actually 39 US cities given as examples: https://www.national...ic-coronavirus/ - also trying to make the point that earlier lockdown were more effective. But strangely only counting the deaths during the first 24 weeks only.

 

As I can see, only 3 cities: St. Luis, Kansas City and Denver, had a higer death rate during the second spike. Only about half of the 39 cities had a second spike worth that name at all, but of those most much much milder then the first. Additionally more of those experiencing a second spike seem to have had much lower mortality during the first spike (compared with cities the highest). While those who experienced highest mortality at first, were less likely to experience a serious second.

 

 nghistory-2003-flatten-the-curve-1918_ai2html_smalls-desktop-medium.jpg   47.24KB   0 downloads

 

Therefore my interpretation of this data to our times: Those places with highest mortality now: Spain, France, Italy, New York.. probably wont experience a second wave. But all other countries with really much lower mortality as is usual during the flu season now, very well might.

Edited by pamojja, 20 April 2020 - 09:32 AM.

[pamojja]

Some recent updates to the 'Facts about Covid-19' article. Which is presenting studies, experts and articles and opinion pieces usually not given much space in mass-media - but by given sources for each, much more reliably to check than mass-media (which more often doesn't mention or check original sources for their truthfullness).

 

Originally in its own thread, now sadly subsumed under such tags as: idiotic thread covidiots coronavirus deniers coronavirus conspiracy theorists conspiracies conspiracy theories. And thereby even promoting hate speech. Shame on longecity.org

 

 

April 18, 2020 Medical updates

• A new serological study by Stanford University found antibodies in 50 to 85 times more people than previously thought in Santa Clara County, California, resulting in a Covid-19 lethality of 0.12% to 0.2% or even lower (i.e. in the range of severe influenza). Professor John Ioannidis explains the study in a new video.
• In a new analysis, the Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine (CEBM) at the University of Oxford argues that the lethality of covid19 (IFR) is between 0.1% and 0.36% (i.e. in the range of a severe influenza). In people over 70 years of age with no serious preconditions, the mortality rate is expected to be less than 1%. For people over 80 years of age, the mortality rate is between 3% and 15%, depending on whether deaths so far were mainly with or from by the disease. In contrast to influenza, child mortality is close to zero. With regard to the high mortality rate in Northern Italy, the research group points out that Italy has the highest antibiotic resistance in Europe. In fact, data from the Italian authorities show that around 80% of the deceased were treated with antibiotics, indicating bacterial superinfections.
• The Finnish epidemiology professor Mikko Paunio from the University of Helsinki has evaluated several international studies in a working paper and comes to a Covid19 lethality (IFR) of 0.1% or less (i.e. in the area of seasonal influenza). According to Paunio, the impression of a higher lethality was created because the virus spread very quickly, especially in multi-generation households in Italy and Spain, but also in cities like New York. The „lockdown“ measures had come too late and had not been effective.
• UK: London’s temporary Nightingale hospital has remained largely empty, with just 19 patients being treated at the facility over the Easter weekend. London’s established hospitals have doubled their ICU capacity, and are so far coping with surge.
• In Canada, 31 people died in a nursing home after „almost all nursing staff had left the facility in a hurry for fear of the corona virus spreading. Health authorities found the people in the home in Dorval near Montreal only days later – many of the survivors were dehydrated, malnourished and apathetic.“ Similar tragedies were already reported from northern Italy, where Eastern European nurses left the country in a hurry when panic broke out and lockdown measures were announced.
• A Scottish doctor who also looks after nursing homes writes: „What was the government strategy for nursing homes? The actions taken so far have made the situation much, much worse.“
• In Switzerland, despite Covid19, total mortality in the first quarter of 2020 (until 5th April) was in the medium normal range. One reason for this could be the mild flu season due to the mild winter, which has now been partially „offset“ by Covid19.
• According to a report from April 14, Swiss hospitals and even intensive care units continue to be very under-utilized. This again raises the question of where and how exactly the test-positive deaths (average age 84) in Switzerland actually occur.
• The President of the German Hospital Association has sounded the alarm: more than 50 percent of all planned operations throughout Germany have been cancelled, and the „operations backlog“ is running into thousands. In addition, 30 to 40% fewer patients with heart attacks and strokes are treated because they no longer dare to go to the hospitals for fear of corona. There were 150,000 free hospital beds and 10,000 free intensive care beds nationwide. In Berlin, only 68 intensive care beds are occupied by corona patients, the emergency clinic with 1000 beds is currently not in use.
• New data of German authorities show that in Germany, too, the reproduction rate of Covid19 had already fallen below the critical value of 1 before the lockdown. General hygiene measures were therefore sufficient to prevent the exponential spread. This had already been shown by the ETH Zurich for Switzerland as well.
• On a French aircraft carrier 1081 soldiers tested positive. So far, almost 50% of them remained symptom-free and about 50% showed mild symptoms. 24 soldiers were hospitalized, one of them is in intensive care (previous illnesses unknown).
• Leading German virologist Christian Drosten thinks it is possible that some people have already built up an effective so-called background immunity against the new corona virus through contact with normal common cold corona viruses.
• Klaus Püschsel, a forensic doctor from Hamburg who has already examined numerous test positive deceased, explains in a new article: „The numbers do not justify the fear of corona“. His findings: „Corona is a relatively harmless viral disease. We have to deal with the fact that Corona is a normal infection and we have to learn to live with it without quarantine“. The fatalities he examined would all have had such serious pre-existing conditions that, „even if that sounds harsh, they would all have died in the course of this year. Püschel adds: „The time of the virologists is over. We should now ask others what is the right thing to do in the corona crisis, for example the intensive care doctors.“
• A review on Medscape shows that common cold infections caused by coronaviruses typically decline at the end of April – with or without a lockdown.
• Swiss magazine Infosperber writes: „Fewer corona cases? Just test less!“ The daily number of „new cases“ reported says little about the state of the epidemic. It was reckless to trigger fear with the curve of cumulative test-positive deaths, they argue.
• OffGuardian: Eight more experts questioning the coronavirus panic.
• Video: Why lockdowns are the wrong policy – Swedish expert Prof. Johan Giesecke Swedish epidemiology professor Johan Giesecke speaks of a „tsunami of a mild disease“ and considers lockdowns to be counterproductive. The most important thing, he says, is to provide efficient protection for risk groups, especially nursing homes.

Ventilation with Covid19

Other experts in Europe and the USA have expressed their opinion on the treatment of critical Covid19 patients and strongly advise against invasive ventilation (intubation). Covid19 patients do not suffer from acute respiratory failure (ARDS), but from oxygen deficiency, possibly caused by an oxygen diffusion problem triggered by the virus or the immune response to it.

• AP: Some doctors moving away from ventilators for virus patients
• Video: Covid-19: Critical Discussion of the Recommendation for Early Intubation
• Video: New York intensive care doctor on Covid19 as a possible diffusion hypoxemia
• Journal: COVID-19 pneumonia: different respiratory treatments for different phenotypes?
• (German) Die WELT: Sterberate bei Beatmungspatienten gibt Rätsel auf

Political updates

• Video: Police violence and monitoring during corona lockdowns around the world.
• In several US states there have been protests and rallies against the lockdown measures.
• German economist Norbert Haering explains in several articles how the „corona crisis“ is being used to introduce worldwide monitoring instruments that have been planned for some time in the areas of travel, payments, contact tracing and biometrics.
• Giorgio Agamben, Italian philosopher, on the Corona measures: „A country, indeed a culture is imploding right now, and nobody seems to care. What is going on before our eyes in countries that claim to be civilized?“
• Italian lawyers lodged a complaint against corona measures of the government.
• The German professor of economics Stefan Homburg in DIE WELT: „Why Germany’s lockdown is wrong – and Sweden is doing much better“: „In summary, countries like Sweden, South Korea or Taiwan have acted wisely by not using lockdowns. The virologists there guided the population and politicians through the crisis with a steady hand, instead of unsettling them by constantly changing course. The coronavirus was successfully contained without harming fundamental rights and jobs. Germany should take this policy as a model for itself.“
• A Swiss citizen has sent an urgent application to the Federal Administrative Court and the Federal Council to have the lockdown lifted immediately.
• Video: „Swiss doctors were muzzled, the Federal Council is divided.“ An interview with Dr. med. Stephan Rietiker, the founder of InsideCorona.ch
• Video: „The Swiss government belongs in prison. A polemic.“

 

Edited by pamojja, 20 April 2020 - 10:53 AM.

[BlueCloud]

This post shows lack of certain understanding, which seems to be widespread. People actually believe that the measures listed above 'save lives'. They don't. All they do is postpone deaths.

 

It was believed until not long ago that alleviating the strain on the health system will save lives (by making ventilators available to all who may need them). Makeshift hospitals have remained empty and now that enough data have come home we know that 80% of those put on the ventilator still die and there is a strong suspicion that being put on a ventilator aggravates the lung injury caused by the virus.

 

But most importantly, there seems a lack of understanding that by the time this pandemic is over, everyone 'destined' to die from this virus will die -- unless you sequester them and them only for 2-3 years. And even after 2-3 years, when herd immunity is reached and vaccine proffered, there still will remain a small but real, non-zero chance for the 'vulnerable' to meet this virus.

 

Social distancing and lockdowns do not save lives. The do postpone inevitable deaths though, realistically, by months only.
 

Actually distancing/lockdowns DO save lives, not just postpone deaths. The equation is pretty simple :

 

- You have 3 beds for Intensive Care, and  3 patients show up. All 3 gets an equal chance for treatments. Maybe one will die, or maybe even all of them, but at least all are given a chance.

 

- You have 3 beds for Intensive Care and 7 patients show up. 3 will get a chance at being treated, and the remaining 4 will have to be abandoned or get sub-optimal attention. In Italy, hospitals and medical personel were so overwhelmed by the amount of people coming in, they had to make a conscious choice of who to save and who to simply abandon, based on who they considered having a better chance of surviving. This is exactly what distancing and lockdowns try to prevent from happening. 
 

Keep in mind that the people needing those beds are not all Covid19 patients. There are also injured people, in accidents,  cancer patients, etc... All are competing for the limited number of beds and personnel 

 

When you have a sudden vast increase of patients, you can’t multiply by 2 or 3 the number of hospitals and medical personnel overnight. But you can slow down the number of patients coming in by slowing down the rate of infections, enough for everyone to be attended to.

Edited by BlueCloud, 20 April 2020 - 11:48 AM.

[BlueCloud]

Freedom is worth dying for.

You mean your freedom to infect others who didn’t ask for it ( and who might die from it ) ?

Edited by BlueCloud, 20 April 2020 - 11:59 AM.

[pamojja]

The graph I posted is not a model. It's actual numbers of deaths by day from the start of the outbreak, comparing COVID-19 to SARS and H1N1 influenza.

 

It's rather clear from just looking at the graph that COVID-19 is really nothing at all like the flu.

 

Screen Shot 2020-04-19 at 11.59.28 AM.png

 

This graph is based on anything else than a comparison to the usual influenza and pneumonia deaths each year (and as you even hinted at in your first sentence). Just the usual hysteria promotion opon confusing data.

 

I'm not denying the danger of covid-19 at all, but have to point out that the worldwide mortality from the usual flu has been much more severe year after year after year. And nobody seems to have cared about.

 

https://www.worldlif...gs-total-deaths

 

 

Edited by pamojja, 20 April 2020 - 12:15 PM.

[pamojja]

Actually distancing/lockdowns DO save lives, not just postpone deaths. The equation is pretty simple :

 

The problem with this opinion is, that it isn't supported by the now available data. Most countries already reached their peaks of mortality. And thereby no difference in time between outbreak and plateauing of mortality can be found. Between countries with brute lockdowns. And those with more targeted meassures, like social distancing of the vulnerable.

 

Mingling both of these completely differing meassures doesn't adds to clarity. Its just used to justify without any evidence.
 

[BlueCloud]

The problem with this opinion is, that it isn't supported by the now available data. Most countries already reached their peaks of mortality. And thereby no difference in time between outbreak and plateauing of mortality can be found. Between countries with brute lockdowns. And those with more targeted meassures, like social distancing of the vulnerable.

 

Mingling both of these completely differing meassures doesn't adds to clarity. Its just used to justify without any evidence.
 

the end result is the same, whether brute lockdowns, or targeted social distancing for the vulnerable : to slow down the rate of infections and the incoming flux of patients to hospitals.

 

Also, the truth is that some countries are more disciplined than others. Italians , spanish, french, are not exactly known for being as self-disciplined as the swedish,  the south-koreans, or the germans., or the austrians. They are more individualistic , less likely to obey rules and regulations.
In Germany, the police tweeted congratulations to the population for respecting distancing and confinement without the need for coercion and brute lock-downs. In France or Italy, they needed to force people to fill out forms indicating why are going out and to put the time they left home, and had police checkpoints everywhere. And they still had people leaving the big cities in droves towards their secondary habitations on week-ends and holidays...They had brute lockdowns because parks and cafés were jam-packed despite calls for distancing and confining from health authorities.

 

i mean, in normal times,  the Italians and french and spanish are far more fun to mingle with than the swedes or the south-koreans. But in special times like these, that spirit backfires on their population more than it helps them.

Edited by BlueCloud, 20 April 2020 - 12:52 PM.

[pamojja]

The difference between flu and coronavirus is that flu has an effective treatment option called Tamiflu and also flu shots while the latter has none.

 

Also R0 of flu is about 1.2 and R0 of coronavirus is 5.7

 

The high number of flu deaths is due to many different types of flu viruses, e.g. at the species level, there are three human flu virus. On the other hand, SARS-2 is killing similar number of people in one month with only a single species.

 

When we have an effective treatment and/or vaccine, I am ok to treat it as just a more serious flu.

 

The RO of coronavirus even at this late time of the epidemic is purely speculative. First antibody testing studies did find it much closer to a serious flu season.

 

We don't have effective treatment against flu, thats why there are above 3 million influenza and pneumonia deaths each year. Without anybody caring. Or obviously without knowing anything about.
 

Edited by pamojja, 20 April 2020 - 12:53 PM.

[pamojja]

the end result is the same, whether brute lockdowns, or targeted social distancing for the vulnerable : to slow down the rate of infections and the incoming flux of patients to hospitals.

 

Only if one forgets that its not an argument of saving lifes against saving the economy. A prolonged economy crisis could have by far a higher mortality worldwide, than covid-19 by itself ever could.
 

[BlueCloud]

Only if one forgets that its not an argument of saving lifes against saving the economy. A prolonged economy crisis could have by far a higher mortality worldwide, than covid-19 by itself ever could.
 

Oh, it’s pretty obvious by now that ALL countries and governments are very aware about that. I don’t think all these governments, from the most communists to the most capitalists have chosen to go for all these harsh measures for pure fun or for some sort of suicidal self-destruction impulse, or because they’re all idiots and hysterical.  In fact a country like China may even have largely lied about the numbers of dead there, to protect its economy. 
I don’t see any country so far that wants to be locked-down for more than 2 months. All European countries have announced lifting their various levels of confinement during the month of May, and going for “softer” measures ( widespread use of masks, etc) for the upcoming months.

Edited by BlueCloud, 20 April 2020 - 01:08 PM.

[ymc]

The RO of coronavirus even at this late time of the epidemic is purely speculative. First antibody testing studies did find it much closer to a serious flu season.

 

We don't have effective treatment against flu, thats why there are above 3 million influenza and pneumonia deaths each year. Without anybody caring. Or obviously without knowing anything about.
 

 

https://wwwnc.cdc.go...20-0282_article

 

R0 5.7 is from CDC's most recent research. I would not call that purely speculative.

 

If there are no effective treatment for flu, then what are Tamiflus and flu shots? Do we have similar drugs/vaccine for COVID?

 

We also have many bacterial pneumonia deaths around the world. But do you not consider antibiotics an effective treatment

? Without antibiotics, I suppose we can add at least one more zero to the deaths.

[xEva]

Actually distancing/lockdowns DO save lives, not just postpone deaths. The equation is pretty simple :

 

- You have 3 beds for Intensive Care, and  3 patients show up. All 3 gets an equal chance for treatments. Maybe one will die, or maybe even all of them, but at least all are given a chance.

 

- You have 3 beds for Intensive Care and 7 patients show up. 3 will get a chance at being treated, and the remaining 4 will have to be abandoned or get sub-optimal attention. In Italy, hospitals and medical personel were so overwhelmed by the amount of people coming in, they had to make a conscious choice of who to save and who to simply abandon, based on who they considered having a better chance of surviving. This is exactly what distancing and lockdowns try to prevent from happening. 
 

Keep in mind that the people needing those beds are not all Covid19 patients. There are also injured people, in accidents,  cancer patients, etc... All are competing for the limited number of beds and personnel 

 

When you have a sudden vast increase of patients, you can’t multiply by 2 or 3 the number of hospitals and medical personnel overnight. But you can slow down the number of patients coming in by slowing down the rate of infections, enough for everyone to be attended to.

 

This is exactly what was expected in NYC and elsewhere. This measure did not save lives in NYC though, because they built too many hospital beds and even ICU beds. You may argue that the NYC death rate could have been worth. Maybe, depends on the time frame. And the difference in time is not that great. It's measured in months, only. 

 

Infections that were 'due' without lockdowns were not avoided entirely as 'saving lives' implies. They were postponed to a later time. If not March-April, then May-November. If not this year then next. This realization is lacking in frequently repeated mainstream slogans, to the point that they have become brainwashing propaganda tools.

Edited by xEva, 20 April 2020 - 01:58 PM.