914 replies to this topic

[pamojja]

From a page ago:

 

It matters because curves displayed and decisions made from them are incorrect.
Correcting this after the fact isn't good enough.

https://www.timesofi...4ODSRDtBh6XbJ28

A similar pattern – rapid increase in infections to a peak in the sixth week, and decline from the eighth week – is common everywhere, regardless of response policies

"The following is the text of a study by Prof Isaac Ben-Israel, first published on April 16, 2020. (Ben-Israel discussed his research on Israeli TV on April 13, saying that simple statistics show the spread of the coronavirus declines to almost zero after 70 days — no matter where it strikes, and no matter what measures governments impose to try to thwart it.)

The following article aims at examining the development of the coronavirus disease in Israel since its inception 56 days ago (8 weeks)."

 

In my calculation I calculated only from the first reported covid death. If I add the 17 days, which it in average takes from infection to death from (in the few cases it does), then by today the average for all 110 affected country to peak was 43 days.

[gamesguru]

Sweden had its fist case on January 31st, and its first death March 11th.

 

They are well past week 8, and building momentum strong.

 

[pamojja]

Sweden had its fist case on January 31st, and its first death March 11th.

 

They are well past week 8, and building momentum strong.

 

Yes, Sweden to its mortality plateau was from March 11th till April 8th. 27 days to be precise + 17 days before death = 44 days. Perfectly average.

 

 Screenshot_2020-04-24 2020 coronavirus pandemic in Sweden - Wikipedia.png   146KB   0 downloads

 

And their downward momentum definitely strong.

 

 

The biggest outlier I really worry about however is the US (though as all other countries included to arrive at my average). As had been found post-mortem, the earliest covid death already occured on Feb. 6th. Its very late and erstwhile highest peak on 21st of April. Adding 17 days before death, already beyond 3 months!

 

 Screenshot_2020-04-25 2020 coronavirus pandemic in the United States - Wikipedia.png   237.85KB   0 downloads

 

 

The only other country that late is Japan at very low levels. Was told there is the Golden week holidays coming up, by someone living in Japan. So I suspect that authorities added some overseen numbers at this date, as a warning to their population.

 

 Screenshot_2020-04-25 2020 coronavirus pandemic in Japan - Wikipedia.png   243.71KB   0 downloads

 

 

Edited by pamojja, 25 April 2020 - 04:54 PM.

[gamesguru]

Yes, Sweden to its mortality plateau was from March 11th till April 8th. 27 days to be precise + 17 days before death = 44 days. Perfectly average.

 

And their downward momentum definitely strong.

 

Where are you getting this??  worldometers.info paints a very different picture.

 

I am not seeing that Sweden has plateaued in anything—cases and deaths trend upward.

 

Edited by gamesguru, 25 April 2020 - 08:53 PM.

[pamojja]

Where are you getting this??  worldometers.info paints a very different picture.

 

From https://en.wikipedia...avirus_pandemic - https://en.wikipedia...demic_in_Sweden

 

There are indeed stark differences to worldometers, though it appears not in totals. Under the graph at wikipedia it says:

 

Note: Data on new deaths are compiled by the Public Health Agency of Sweden at 11:30 CEST (UTC+02:00) each day. -Reports of new deaths to the Public Health Agency has typically been delayed by up to three weeks, and has been delayed especially around weekends, possibly causing too low numbers in reported number of cases for the most recent weeks.^[13]

 

And if one looks at wordometers Sweden graph, one indeed finds unusual lows always during weekends. Not found in the wikipedia graphs.

 

 

For the worst affected countries on its main page. Which too deviates from the individual US page. The later in this case in agreement with worldometers.

 

 Covid-19_daily_deaths_in_top_5_countries_and_the_world.png   109.91KB   0 downloads

By Chris55 - Own work, CC BY-SA 4.0, https://commons.wiki...?curid=89237233
 

Edited by pamojja, 25 April 2020 - 11:48 PM.

[BlueCloud]

10 days later there are 110 countries with above 1000 positives. Only 13 countries with higher mortality. With 13% of countries affected, its now clearly declining already. (below shreenshots in 4 parts, click each to enlarge and see details)

 

25.04a.png

25.04b.png

25.04c.png

25.04d.png

 

The majority of all by covid affected countries - 97 (83.4% of the world population)- experienced only 30% of the 2017 average influencia and pneumonia mortality-rate (calculated for those affected countries and the individual time period). Only 13 countries (4.1% of the world-population) experienced till now an in average 7 times higher mortality. For all these 110 covid-affected countries that amounts to 20% higher mortality than in 2017.

 

However, calculated for all countries of this world it is now only at about 60% of those who died in 2017 of influenzia/pneumonia in 2017 in equal periods.

 

 

Now we stand at 94 countries with clear lockdowns. Only 16 countries where I couldn't find any information about lockdowns implemented.

 

With lockdown since the first reported covid death: 26 days untill mortality plateaued.

 

Without lockdown: 19 days.

 

Again, I wouldn't read too much into this result. Lockdowns have been mostly implemented because of panic by being worse affected. And therefore clearly self-selected for much worse outcome. Additonally, 31 countries reached their highest mortality within the last 10 days only, and therefore might increase again (almost all under lockdown).

 

Those mortality numbers - though not really reliable in itself, since other then ever before covid-deaths are even counted by mere suspicion - do also absolutely not lent themself for the justification of brude-lockdowns. In comparison to more targeted meassures (social distancing, mask where impossible, protection of the most vulnerable etc..).
 

- so you’re saying that lockdowns actually increases mortality ? 
 

- if mortality is actually so low, how do you explain hospitals being over-burdened , to the point where they have to build additional hospitals in 10 days  to take in the influx of patients, and morgues so over-capacitated they have to stock the bodies in refrigerated trucks and even in places usually used to stock food ?

 

- In some countries, they had no choice but to lockdown for the simple reason that it was completely impossible to provide masks for people. There is a worldwide shortage, and some countries couldn’t even provide enough masks for hospital personnel. To this day, it is impossible to buy a mask in France for example if you are an individual, as there are barely enough masks available for medics and nurses. Countries have been in a bidding war between themselves to buy whatever stock is available from China, and with some countries  snatching right on the tarmac an entire plane full of masks destined to another country by bidding higher and paying cash right away. Pharmacies and hospitals are being robbed on a regular basis by thieves to provide masks on the black market for 10x the price.

The date of lockdown lifting in many countries coincide with the date they think they will have  secured enough stock of masks for the population to use.

 

Edited by BlueCloud, 26 April 2020 - 09:22 AM.

[Mind]

Two things seem clear and proven.

 

1. It is definitely a more deadly disease than the flu, even for younger patients, although the vast majority of the severe and fatal cases are in people who are obese, in poor health, or elderly.

 

2. There is definitely a concentration of excess deaths when it develops in a particular country or region.

 

Even though the classification of "COVID-19" patients is fraught with problems (listing presumptive cases, listing people who died with the coronavirus as dying of COVID-19) and no one seems to be factoring in the false positive/negative rate of the PCR test, it still looks obvious that there is a concentration of excess deaths.

 

Yes, there is "mass-panic" and fear in the populations where concentrated cases have occurred, but it seems unlikely that this can account for the excess deaths. (The study of mass hysteria and hysteria contagion is very interesting)

 

Overburdened medical systems have led to many people not getting treatment and adding to the fatalities, but again, it seems unlikely that this could account for the number of excess deaths.

 

The question for solid policy is how much more deadly is COVID-19 than the seasonal flu. It looks like a multiple (3, 4, 5 times), but not an order of magnitude (10 times or more). More active infection and antibody testing will help out.

 

I can't help but reference this thread once again. It just looks like the world was primed for tragedy from a more deadly virus. It seems to me, this would not be as big of a problem if the world had not experienced an obesity epidemic over the last decade or so. As a society, we also do a great job keeping frail and elderly people alive (and hopefully soon, rejuvenated), but this also has produced a significant number of individuals around the world who are more prone to viruses.

[pamojja]

- so you’re saying that lockdowns actually increases mortality ?

 

Just comprehension difficulties, or intentionally missreading? Just above your question you quoted me saying:

 

"I wouldn't read too much into this result. Lockdowns have been mostly implemented because of panic by being worse affected. And therefore clearly self-selected for much worse outcome."

 

Being self-selcted for worse outcome means, that the lockdown itself can't be identified as a cause. But by being first worse affected by covid for other unknown reasons. (Though there are known factors which could have played strong, like all worse affected areas having highest pollution by any standard, close social contacts in Italy, different strains, populations and comorbities, etc..)

 

And by that very definition, always implemented too late, if one compares to countries which were fastest with counter-meassures but less brude lockdowns (Taiwan, South Korea, Hongkong, Japan..). Such an apple to pears comparison would of course always show too late lockdowns at a disadvantage.

 

For knowing if brude-lockdowns would even increase mortality, one would have to compare only countriess not self-selected by being first worse affected. Which are just too few to ever come to any significant difference. Also the vast majority of countries - not being first strongly affected, and therefore elligible for such a comparison - have even 70% less respiratory illness deaths than usual. Certainly nothing there to argue for increased mortality at all.

 

 

When it is all over, there of course will be much more mental illness, suicides, violence due to increased poverty, less medical care for any other deathly illness now, and due to financial overburdens later, hunger, malaria, etc.. But then this aspects wont will get as much attention from the mass-media, as it doesn't already now. And I wont have it as easy to link mortality to this one factor, as it now with all the media attention of covid itself.

 

- if mortality is actually so low, how do you explain hospitals being over-burdened , to the point where they have to build additional hospitals in 10 days to take in the influx of patients, and morgues so over-capacitated they have to stock the bodies in refrigerated trucks and even in places usually used to stock food ?

 

It isn't low at all, it is actually as, or closely as high as all yearly repiratory infection epidemics before. There are many reports of overburdened ICU system the years before. Only did it never got such a selective reporting in mass-media. Very few hospitals have been over-burdened. The additional needs in NewYork have been manytime overestimated. Most hospital remained for the large part empty. All already answered pages ago. But for a quick fresh-up, you could read all the reports not given much attention in the mass-media summarized here: https://swprs.org/a-...or-on-covid-19/

 

The emtying of hospitals on account of panic might indeed have become a reason for the much higher mortality from other conditions than for covid during this time in many places.

 

The date of lockdown lifting in many countries coincide with the date they think they will have secured enough stock of masks for the population to use.

 

Till today I only looked into date of lockdown, or their lack, and correlations (none found). Additionally, too few countries already lifted. Secondly, with the date of the lockdown in my country (March 16th) mask were actually given for free at the entrance of suppermarkets (and thrown by many in the garbbage bin after). Thirdly, you will find very few experts who consider face-masks a substitude to social-distancing at all.

 

Fourtly and most importantly, I believe most countries actually gave the curve of new infections and deaths more attention than anything else. Therefore most brude lockdowns were implemented at increasing courves to begin with, despite lack of scientific hard data of their real efficiency at that point. Other than completely unrealistic models of worse-case-scenarios. Already manytimes adjusted downwards, without any following up in the policies implemented on such shaky grounds.

In my country the main reason for lockdown was fear of overburdening the ICU system with increasing curves and plainly wrong models. Since the opposite of a overburdened health-system happened (= emtied hospitals), meanwhile mortality from other condition not attended to greatly increased, they of course felt confident enough to slowly ease out.

I guess that will be the real reason for lifting lockdown in most countries. If they don't already before eyed with orwellian police states.

 

[pamojja]

The question for solid policy is how much more deadly is COVID-19 than the seasonal flu. It looks like a multiple (3, 4, 5 times), but not an order of magnitude (10 times or more).

 

My very detailed calculation, for which I added screenshots to verify, showed 83.4% of the world population affected by covid-deaths at 70% lower!!! the 2017 average influencia and pneumonia mortality-rate (calculated for 110 by covid affected countries only).

 

4.1% of the world population at in average 7 times higher mortality. Soo very easy to calculate and identify for adjustments of policies.

 

 

Which calculated adds up to only 60% of the total 2017 average influencia and pneumonia mortality for the whole world.

 

 

How one still can talk about a manytimes multiples without relyance on any hard numbers and differentiation of the so small percentace of world population affected, is beyond me.

 

And thereby I'm not belitteling covid, but honestly think such high influenza and pneumonia mortality, along with much higher stroke and CVDs, should gotten our attention already decades ago.

 

 

Edited by pamojja, 26 April 2020 - 12:15 PM.

[BlueCloud]

It isn't low at all, it is actually as, or closely as high as all yearly repiratory infection epidemics before. There are many reports of overburdened ICU system the years before. Only did it never got such a selective reporting in mass-media. Very few hospitals have been over-burdened. The additional needs in NewYork have been manytime overestimated. Most hospital remained for the large part empty. All already answered pages ago. But for a quick fresh-up, you could read all the reports not given much attention in the mass-media summarized here: https://swprs.org/a-...or-on-covid-19/

 

Oh ok. Well that’s a relief. What is happening right now is very ordinary then , it’s just the media that is selectively reporting it. Do you have any theories about why all the various medias of the world, whatever there political bias, have all decided at the same time to selectively report this ? Perhaps your website “Swiss Propaganda Research” has some ideas why this is happening.

Have you considered contacting the governments of Italy, France, Spain, China, etc.. to inform then about your findings ? Maybe the UN and the WHO too . And probably the heads of the hospitals that were over-burdened to explain to them that they are actually dealing with the same rates of overburdened they had a few times in the past too ? I’m sure they will be greatfull and can relax more once they look back  and find that they got it all wrong. 
Thanks.

[pamojja]

Perhaps your website “Swiss Propaganda Research” has some ideas why this is happening.

Have you considered contacting the governments of Italy, France, Spain, China, etc.. to inform then about your findings ?

 

That website isn't mine at all. Just one of your accusations never supported by anything, I never though worthwile replying to. I'm not an MD, nor I'm swiss. Only the caculation of how many are really affected by death through covid in each country is mine. For looking to the reason for such a concerted effort to helicopter money I would look into the world of financial meltdown anyway having to come.

 

Therefore all authorities would just laugh at the real numbers, since they know the majority of population doesn't calculate for themself, and are so easily driven into panic. As your gullibility on mere mass-media reports without fact-checking still shows.
 

[BlueCloud]

That website isn't mine at all. Just one of your accusations never supported by anything, I never though worthwile replying to. I'm not an MD, nor I'm swiss. Only the caculation of how many are really affected by death through covid in each country is mine. For looking to the reason for such a concerted effort to helicopter money I would look into the world of financial meltdown anyway having to come.

 

Therefore all authorities would just laugh at the real numbers, since they know the majority of population doesn't calculate for themself, and are so easily driven into panic. As your gullibility on mere mass-media reports without fact-checking still shows.
 

Oh ok. So this is a concerted effort of all world governments and authorities, not just the media, into creating this hoax.

 

It’s quite impressive that you have been able to uncover this with simple Excel tabulations on your own. You must be a very intelligent person. Aren’t you afraid they might be going after you for publicly uncovering this ? I mean, we must be talking about at least a few powerful dozens , if not the entire governments of the world working collectively to organize this.

 

Anyway I’ll have to thank you for your efforts in opening our eyes. Ill be less gullible from now on.

Edited by BlueCloud, 26 April 2020 - 01:04 PM.

[gamesguru]

And if one looks at wordometers Sweden graph, one indeed finds unusual lows always during weekends. Not found in the wikipedia graphs.

 

Not true.  They reported a relative minimum on April 20th, which was a Monday.

 

Regardless, the Wikipedia data for Sweden—which still shows no consistent downward trends—is slightly more spread out.  Perhaps they are using different definition of midnight?  Perhaps people got scared one week, and that's why cases dipped?  It's too early to say.

[pamojja]

Oh ok. So this is a concerted effort of all world governments and authorities, not just the media, into creating this hoax.

 

It is happening before everyone's eyes. And still denied by almost everyone. Therefore no need to fear. Because there is no more danger to that much delution everywhere, from a little truth. Immetially thought invalitated by redicule, instead of any reason. Again, nobody seems to even mention anymore.

 

Not true.  They reported a relative minimum on April 20th, which was a Monday...

Perhaps people got scared one week, and that's why cases dipped?  It's too early to say.

 

The lowest numbers reported have been consistently too low on Saturday through Monday. It just isn't rational that Sweeds just exactly 17 days before and spanning whole weekends through now 5 conseqential weeks always got scared. Which actually they are still not. But more likely statisticans showing results from Tuesdays till Fridays (although according to below numbers, slacking off, or finding less, already on Fridays)

 

The worldometer data shows for the last 3 weeks:

Sun	28	12	29
Mo	76	20	40
Tue	114	114	185
Wed	96	170	172
Thr	106	130	84
Fr	77	67	131
Sat	11	111	40

	508	624	681

So according to that Sweden would be an outlier, but by far not as much as the US.

 

What you however ignore additional to any logic, and to confirm your bias with just 1 single still unlikely outlier, is wikipedia's explanation to their numbers for Sweden:

 

Note: Data on new deaths are compiled by the Public Health Agency of Sweden at 11:30 CEST (UTC+02:00) each day. -Reports of new deaths to the Public Health Agency has typically been delayed by up to three weeks, and has been delayed especially around weekends, possibly causing too low numbers in reported number of cases for the most recent weeks.^[13]

 

Delays of reporting isn't just after weekends, but up to 3 weeks. Therefore all deaths showing up by wordometer now since long have been in the past. Otherwise the totals from worldometers and wikipedia wouldn't end up equal.

 

Like in the example of late reporting in China:

 

 Screenshot_2020-04-26 China Coronavirus 82,827 Cases and 4,632 Deaths - Worldometer.png   32.07KB   0 downloads

 

Are you really as naive to believe suddenly there were 1290 covid-deaths on April 17th? When before there were at the highest peak only 150 deaths on Feb. 23rd?

 

Actualizing in real time such sites with all countries and so many parameters - worldometer and wikipedia - do have a massive working-load. Therefore it doesn't lessen their efforts, if one of them just add the number at days reported, instead of investigating for which days in the past those have been reported. Which in case of China would be impossible in retrospect. And wikipedia obviously did have the manpower to in case of Sweden. Especially interresting to many, due to their different approach.

 

[pamojja]

An other update from the "Fact about Covid-19" article. Subsumming studies, experts and articles with less coverage in the mass-media. Please do check the given sources for yourself for verifying if it got it right.

 

 

 

April 25, 2020 Medical updates

• Video: The Californian physician Dr. Dan Erickson described his observations regarding Covid19 in a press conference. Hospitals and intensive care units in California and other states have remained largely empty so far. Based on the respective positive test rates, Dr. Erickson calculates that the lethality rate of Covid19 is currently 0.03% in California, 0.05% in Spain, 0.09% in Sweden and 0.1% in New York State, while the lethality rate of the flu in the USA is around 0.13%. (Note: the positive test rate cannot reflect local „hotspot effects“). The probability of surviving Covid19 without symptoms or with mild symptoms is over 95%. Dr. Erickson reports that doctors from several US states have been „pressured“ to issue death certificates mentioning Covid19, even though they themselves did not agree. Dr. Erickson argues that lockdowns and fear weaken people’s immune system and health. There has already been a marked increase in „secondary effects“ such as alcoholism, depression, suicide, and abuse of children and spouses. Dr Erickson recommends that only the sick and not the healthy or the whole society should be quarantined. A mouthguard only makes sense in acute situations such as in hospital, but not in everyday life, according to Dr. Erickson
• Professor Detlef Krüger, the direct predecessor of the well-known German virologist Christian Drosten at the Charité Clinic in Berlin, explains in a recent interview that Covid19 is „in many respects comparable to the flu“ and „no more dangerous than certain variants of the flu virus“. Professor Krüger considers the „mouth and nose protection discovered by politicians“ to be „actionism“ and a potential „germ-slinger“. At the same time he warns of „massive collateral damage“ caused by the measures taken.
• Swiss pathologists have come to the conclusion that many of the test-positive deceased did not suffer from pneumonia, but had a disorder of the blood vessels and thus of the oxygen exchange in the lungs. This could explain why the ventilation of critical Covid19 patients is often not effective and why patients with existing cardiovascular problems belong to the risk group. In fact, all of the autopsied patients suffered from high blood pressure, a large proportion were severely overweight (obese) and two thirds had pre-damaged coronary arteries.
• The latest figures from Italy show (pp. 12/13) that 60 of almost 17,000 doctors and nurses who tested positive died. This results in a Covid19 lethality rate of less than 0.1% for those under 50, 0.27% for those aged 50 to 60, 1.4% for those aged 60 to 70, and 12.6% for those aged 70 to 80. Even these figures are likely too high, as these are deaths with and not necessarily from corona viruses, and as up to 80% of people remain asymptomatic and some may not have been tested. Overall, however, the values are in line with those from e.g. South Korea and give a lethality rate for the general population in the range of influenza.
• The head of the Italian Civil Defence declared in mid-April that more than 1800 people died in nursing homes in Lombardy, and that in many cases the cause of death was not yet clear. It was already known beforehand that the care of the elderly and nursing homes and, as a result, the entire health care system in parts of Lombardy had collapsed, in part due to fear of the virus and the lockdown.
• The latest figures from Belgium show that there too, just over 50% of all additional deaths occur in nursing homes, which do not benefit from a general lockdown. In 6% of these deaths Covid19 was „confirmed“, in 94% of the deaths it was „suspected“. About 70% of the test-positive persons (employees and residents) showed no symptoms.
• The German vaccination expert Professor Dr. Siegwart Bigl considers the corona protection to be „excessive“. According to Professor Bigl, there is „no pandemic“ (with a particularly high number of deaths), the lockdown was unnecessary and wrong, and the comparison with influenza is „absolutely legitimate“.
• The British Guardian cites new studies according to which air pollution could be a „key factor“ in Covid19 deaths. For example, 80% of deaths in four countries were in the most polluted regions (including Lombardy and Madrid).
• The German newspaper DIE ZEIT focuses on the high vacancy rates in German hospitals, which in some departments are as high as 70%. Even cancer examinations and organ transplants that were not acutely necessary for survival had been cancelled to make room for Covid19 patients, but these have so far been largely absent.
• In Germany, a mask requirement was introduced in public transport and in retail outlets. The president of the World Medical Association, Frank Montgomery, has criticized this as „wrong“ and the intended use of scarves and drapes as „ridiculous“. In fact, studies show that the use of masks in everyday life does not bring measurable benefits to healthy and asymptomatic people, which is why the Swiss infectiologist Dr. Vernazza spoke of a „media hype“. Other critics speak of a symbol of „forced, publicly visible obedience“.
• In 2019, a WHO study found „little to no scientific evidence“ for the effectiveness of measures such as „social distancing“, travel restrictions and lockdowns.
• A German laboratory stated in early April that according to WHO recommendations, Covid19 virus tests are now considered positive even if the specific target sequence of the Covid19 virus is negative and only the more general corona virus target sequence is positive. However, this can lead to other corona viruses (cold viruses) also trigger a false positive test result. The laboratory also explained that Covid19 antibodies are often only detectable two to three weeks after the onset of symptoms. This must be taken into account so that the actual number of people already immune to Covid19 is not underestimated.
• In both Switzerland and Germany, individual politicians have called for „compulsory vaccination against corona“. However, the vaccination against the so-called „swine flu“ of 2009/2010, for example, led to sometimes severe neurological damage, especially in children, and to claims for damages in the millions.
• Professor Christopher Kuhbandner: About the lack of scientific justification for the corona measures: „The reported figures on new infections very dramatically overestimate the true spread of the corona virus. The observed rapid increase in new infections is almost exclusively due to the fact that the number of tests has increased rapidly over time (see figure below). So, at least according to the reported figures, there was in reality never an exponential spread of the coronavirus. The reported figures on new infections hide the fact that the number of new infections has been decreasing since about early or mid-March.“

Green: Real increase of infected people; red: increase due to more tests. Sweden: The media versus reality

Some readers were surprised by the decrease in deaths in Sweden, as most media show a steeply rising curve. What is the reason for this? Most media show cumulative figures by date of reporting, while the Swedish authorities publish the much more meaningful daily figures by date of death.

The Swedish authorities always stress that not all newly reported cases have died within the last 24 hours, but many media ignore this (see graph below). Although the latest Swedish figures may still increase somewhat, as in all countries, this does not change the generally declining trend.

In addition, these figures also represent deaths with and not necessarily from corona viruses. The average age of death in Sweden is also over 80 years, about 50% of deaths occurred in nursing homes, and the effect on the general population has remained minimal, even though Sweden has one of the lowest intensive care capacities in Europe.

However, the Swedish government has also been given new emergency powers due to „corona“ and could still participate in later contact tracing programmes.

Cumulative figures by date of reporting vs. daily figures by date of death. (OWD / FOHM) The situation in Great Britain

Deaths in the UK have risen sharply in recent weeks, but are still in the range of the worst flu epidemics of the last fifty years. In the UK, too, up to 50% of additional deaths occur in nursing homes, which do not benefit from a general lockdown.

Moreover, up to 50% of the additional deaths are said to be non-Covid19 deaths and up to 25% of the additional deaths occur at home. It is therefore not clear whether the general lockdown is beneficial or in fact detrimental to society at large.

Frasor Nelson, the editor of the British Spectator, has claimed that government agencies expect the lockdown to result in up to 150,000 additional deaths in the longer term, significantly more than what Covid19 is expected to cause. Most recently, the case of a 17-year-old singer who took her own life because of the lockdown became known.

It is striking that England, in contrast to most other countries, also has a significantly higher mortality rate among 15 to 64-year-olds. This could possibly be due to the frequent cardiovascular preconditions, or it might be caused by the effects of the lockdown.

The InProportion project has published numerous new graphs that put current UK mortality in relation to previous flu outbreaks and other causes of death. Other websites that critically review the measures are Lockdown Skeptics and UK Column.

UK: Weekly all-cause mortality (InProportion) Switzerland: Excess mortality well below strong flu waves

• A first serological study by the University of Geneva concluded that at least six times more people in the canton of Geneva had contact with Covid19 than previously thought. This means that the lethality of Covid19 in Switzerland also falls well below one percent, while official sources still speak of up to 5%.
• Even in the most severely affected canton of Ticino, almost half of the additional deaths occurred in nursing homes that do not benefit from the general lockdown.
• In Switzerland, 1.85 million people or over a third of all employees have already been registered for short-time work. The economic costs are estimated at 32 billion for the period from March to June.
• Infosperber: Corona: The parroting of the media. „Major media outlets are hiding the fact that they rely on opaque data for Covid-19 numbers.“
• Ktipp: Swiss authorities: Almost all numbers ‚without guarantee‘. „This year fewer under-65s died in the first 14 weeks than in the last five years. Among the over-65s, the number was also relatively low.“

The following graph shows that overall mortality in Switzerland in the first quarter of 2020 was in the normal range and that by mid-April it was still around 2000 people below the flu wave of 2015. 50% of deaths occurred in nursing homes that do not benefit from a lockdown.

Overall, around 75% of the additional deaths occurred at home, while hospitals and intensive care units remain heavily underutilized and numerous operations have been cancelled. In Switzerland, too, the very serious question thus arises as to whether the „lockdown“ may have cost more lives than it saved.

Cumulated deaths compared to expected value, 2010 to 2020 (BFS) Political updates

• Video: In the Australian state of Queensland, a police helicopter with night-vision equipment tracked down three young men who were drinking a beer on the roof of a house at night, thus violating „Corona regulations“. The men were informed via a megaphone that the building is „surrounded by police“ and that they must proceed to the exit. The men were fined about $1000 each.
• In Israel, the domestic and anti-terrorism intelligence agency Shin Bet, in cooperation with the police, has been tasked to monitor the population’s mobile phones since mid-March in order to track contacts and order house arrest in the context of Covid19. These measures were initially ordered without the consent of Parliament and are due to remain in place until at least the end of April.
• OffGuardian: The Seven Step Path from Pandemic to Totalitarianism
• UK Column: Who controls the British Government response to Covid-19?
• Kurt Nimmo: „COVID-19, Smartphone Surveillance, and the State“
• The Corona-critical Swiss doctor, who was arrested by a special unit of the Swiss police and sent to a psychiatric clinic (see update of April 15), has meanwhile been released. A report by the magazine Weltwoche revealed that the doctor was arrested on false grounds: there had been no threat to relatives or authorities and there had been no possession of a loaded weapon. Thus, a politically motivated operation seems likely.
• A Munich local radio station, which interviewed doctors critical of corona in March, was informed by the responsible media supervisory authority after complaints that „such problematic broadcasts must be stopped in the future“.
• The website kollateral.news of a German specialist lawyer is collecting reports on „suffering due to the lockdown“ and on the actual situation in German hospitals.
• German general practitioners have published an appeal to politics and science in which they call for „a more responsible handling of the corona crisis“.
• Both in Austria and in Hungary, doctors who have criticised the corona measures are threatened with a ban from their profession.
• In Nigeria, according to official figures, more people have so far been killed by the police enforcing corona curfews than by the corona virus itself.

 

[gamesguru]

This trend of less than a week is NOT CONCLUSIVE in Sweden.  Brazil had several dips in deaths before their latest surge.

 

The only people buying into these right-wing conspiracies that the worst is behind us are either dimwitted yokels who can't think for themselves, or lobbyist grifters with their hand too deep in their pocket to care.

Edited by gamesguru, 26 April 2020 - 03:31 PM.

[pamojja]

Again, your are not looking at all countries affected by covid, and pick just outliers to prove your believes. No real argument based on the totality of the till now already available data. The rest just the usual ad hominems and redicule, which in these times seem to have been replaced for reasoning.

[gamesguru]

Again, your are not looking at all countries affected by covid, and pick just outliers to prove your believes

 

you're the one not looking at the whole picture and cherry-picking data.

 

here's France, also showing the same wavelike pattern in deaths at every stage.  A 5-day trend means often nothing in the grand scheme of things

[Mind]

Here two ER doctors who manage a lot of clinics in California come up with the same angle/stats as pamojja.

 

I was kind-of skeptical about their motives at first, but they address a lot of tough questions throughout the (long) video and they answer them pretty well.

 

I wonder if thety are too optimistic becsuse they didn't see an overload of cases in their clinics - just a moderate amount.

 

I am biased toward holistic health so maybe I am biased toward their argument, but I did think about it independently on my own, that community contact "keeps your immune system in shape". Social isolation and sterilization of everything you come in contact with is likely to produce poor health outcomes.

 

 

 

[gamesguru]

Take these squeaky hillbillies from their piddly Bakersfield shack down to the soon-to-be-overwhelmed L.A. mega-hospitals, and see if their tone changes.  They'll just ad lib whatever sick lie pops into their heads to try to justify their radical position that all is swell.  Fact is California issued the most radical shutdown the earliest—thinking youre safe now is like taking a parachute off during a sky dive because you feel it slowed your fall.  If you urge regional declarations—rural areas may not need as many restrictions as soon—that's understandable, but that complicates things in terms of the state law and executive orders.

 

This clown also thinks because we're not disinfecting water bottles from Costco, we may as well re-open schools and allow mass gatherings.  Hello!  Do you not see how a line has been crossed in going from not washing your groceries obsessively with bleach, to allowing mass gatherings?  Keep in mind if your grandpa dies of a heart attack, there's a good chance mentally deranged quacks like this were involved in his mis-slip.  Hopefully they learn from it

Edited by gamesguru, 26 April 2020 - 05:01 PM.

[pamojja]

you're the one not looking at the whole picture and cherry-picking data.

 

here's France, also showing the same wavelike pattern in deaths at every stage. A 5-day trend means often nothing in the grand scheme of things

 

You're accusing me of cherry picking data?

 

- While yesterday having calculated all 110 most affected countries to have had in average ~27 days between first covid death untill plateauing, adding 17 days (for avg. time between infection to death), about 43 days. And of those 110 countries only 33 where one could talk of a 10-day downward trend, probably only some exceeding again. Most of those under lockdown.

 

And bring as counterargument just 1 of all those above 100 countries affected again? Which in their totallity show a more accurate picture? - Your example doesn't even show anything of a '5-day trend'. Nor anything adjusting your bias, by excluding all 109 as well but differently affected countries.

 

 

Take these squeaky hillbillies from their piddly Bakersfield shack down to the soon-to-be-overwhelmed L.A. mega-hospitals, and see if their tone changes.  They'll just ad lib whatever sick lie pops into their heads to try to justify their radical position that all is swell.

 

Nothing than a smear campaign on account of nothing than blind believes. No actual data in support.


 

[gamesguru]

I already pointed out 3 examples if you count Spain, France, Brazil.

 

Let's just wait and see how long Sweden plateaus.

 

 

As for the "smear campaign", here's what a California local democratic news station has to say, and they're backed by the consensus of most other doctors.  Now I'm not saying these guys couldn't be right and everyone else is wrong, it's just I'd bet my money the other way lol just read this and tell me they're not quacks,

BAKERSFIELD, Calif (KGET) — Two local doctors spoke out Thursday, rejecting Dr. Dan Erickson’s call to re-open society, and to end to the shelter-in-place order for people not showing symptoms.

“This virus is not a virus to be taken very lightly,” said Dr. Navin Amin, an infectious diseases specialist who has resided in Bakersfield for more than 40 years. On Facebook Live Thursday, he shared his expertise on COVID-19.

“It is a killer virus,” he said. “It spreads very rapidly, and it doesn’t spare anybody,” Amin continued.

Interviewed by his daughter Dr. Nimisha Amin, herself a medical doctor, the senior Amin was emphatic.

“Even an asymptomatic person — 25 percent of them — can spread the virus without knowing it. As a result social isolation may be a help.”

The younger Amin replied by repeating “25 percent of individuals may be infected with COVID-19, but be completely asymptotic.”

“That is correct,” her dad answered. “They may be entirely asymptotic, [and] they will not even know they are harboring the virus. And yet they can spread the virus.”

“That’s why we need everyone to be practicing social distancing,” the younger Amin replied.

On Wednesday, Dr. Erickson, co-owner of Accelerated Urgent Care, argued that sheltering in place could lead to weakened immune systems. However, Dr. Amin said Thursday such is not the case:

“Social isolation has no bearing, no effect on the immune system at all,” Amin stated.

Regarding Dr. Erickson’s claim that this virus so far has proven “similar in nature to the seasonal flu,” Dr. Hemmal Kothary Thursday morning shared otherwise during an interview on 17 News at Sunrise.

When asked if it is fair to make such a comparison at this point, Kothary, the chief medical officer with Dignity Health’s Central California division, answered, “Right now, I would say absolutely not. The flu acts a lot different. This virus is a lot more virulent. It passes from people to people a lot more aggressively. The symptoms are a lot more aggressive. It seems to affect a lot of age groups the flu typically won’t affect.”

On testing, Amin is calling for more-wide-spread FDA-approved testing beyond just those with symptoms. “We may be missing a lot of people who are entirely asymptomatic and spreading the virus,” he said.

Going forward, Amin shared what could happen if society re-opens too soon.

“There is no doubt in my mind that if we abruptly remove the restrictions at present, which has helped us a lot, it will definitely flare up…increasing the number of cases as well as deaths.”

Dr. Amin also advised people to listen to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and infectious disease doctors including Dr. Anthony Fauci.

[pamojja]

I already pointed out 3 examples if you count Spain, France, Brazil.

 

Let's just wait and see how long Sweden plateaus.

 

 Screenshot_2020-04-26 2020 coronavirus pandemic in Spain - Wikipedia.png   216.74KB   0 downloads
 Screenshot_2020-04-26 2020 coronavirus pandemic in France - Wikipedia.png   228.19KB   0 downloads

 Screenshot_2020-04-27 2020 coronavirus pandemic in Brazil - Wikipedia.png   156.18KB   0 downloads

 Screenshot_2020-04-27 2020 coronavirus pandemic in Sweden - Wikipedia.png   147.25KB   0 downloads

 

Spain reached its plateau on Apr 2nd (including 17 days for infection): 64 days

France on Apr 15th: 75 days

Brazil on Apr 24th: 53 days

Sweden on Apr 8th: 44 days

 

And what those 4 examples - just 3% of all affected, additionally disporportional 3 of the worst affected countries selected - in particular comprehensively should show?

 

Even if Sweden - the only without brute lockdown - would again increase, that would still not neccesarily mean to be worse off than Spain or France. Both under most strictest of lockdowns.

 

But I really appreciate you moderated yourself in nothing more than fabricated accusations. And at least try to argument more rational.

Edited by pamojja, 26 April 2020 - 10:40 PM.

[pamojja]

 

“Social isolation has no bearing, no effect on the immune system at all,” Amin stated.

 

 

Leung KY, Ball F, Sirl D,
Britton T. 2018

 

Individual preventive social
distancing during an epidemic may have
negative population-level outcomes.

 

The outbreak of an infectious disease in a human population can lead to
individuals responding with preventive measures in an attempt to avoid
getting infected. This leads to changes in contact patterns. However, as we
show in this paper, rational behaviour at the individual level, such as
social distancing from infectious contacts, may not always be beneficial for
the population as a whole. We use epidemic network models to demonstrate
the potential negative consequences at the population level. We take into
account the social structure of the population through several network
models. As the epidemic evolves, susceptible individuals may distance
themselves from their infectious contacts. Some individuals replace their
lost social connections by seeking new ties. If social distancing occurs at a
high rate at the beginning of an epidemic, then this can prevent an outbreak
from occurring. However, we show that moderate social distancing can
worsen the disease outcome, both in the initial phase of an outbreak and
the final epidemic size. Moreover, the same negative effect can arise in
real-world networks. Our results suggest that one needs to be careful
when targeting behavioural changes as they could potentially worsen the epidemic
outcome. Furthermore, network structure crucially influences the way
that individual-level measures impact the epidemic at the population level.
These findings highlight the importance of careful analysis of preventive
measures in epidemic models.

 

 

 

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[gamesguru]

Sure, but if you look at figure 2a, you see the increase is very modest ~5% and clearly above 60% isolation it becomes a decrease as expected.  That's basically what China and Korea achieved: widespread suppression without infecting even close to 1% of their people.  Whether it can be done with zero inconveniences to daily life remains to show.  Regardless, this point is absurd.

[gamesguru]

Brazil on Apr 24th: 53 days

Sweden on Apr 8th: 44 days

 

QFT

[pamojja]

 Now we stand at 94 countries with clear lockdowns. Only 16 countries where I couldn't find any information about lockdowns implemented.

 

With lockdown since the first reported covid death: 26 days untill mortality plateaued.

 

Without lockdown: 19 days.

 

Again, I wouldn't read too much into this result. Lockdowns have been mostly implemented because of panic by being worse affected. And therefore clearly self-selected for much worse outcome. Additonally, 31 countries reached their highest mortality within the last 10 days only, and therefore might increase again (almost all under lockdown).

 

My calculation increasingly get screwed due to lack of information about lockdowns.

 

As it stands now: 37 days with lockdown (100 countries)

27 days without lockdown (25 countries)

 

The wikipedia page about countries with lockdowns is very incomplete (https://en.wikipedia...avirus_pandemic). And mentions Sweden and Nicaragua without lockdowns only.
 

But I can't find any mentioning of strict lockdowns for those further countries under their respective pages (https://en.wikipedia...avirus_pandemic):

 

Hongkong

Taiwan

South Korea

Egypt

Iceland

Bulgaria

Guinea

Burkina Faso

Cyprus

Niger

Cameroon

Sri Lanka

Mali

Uruguay

Togo

Djibouti

 

By chance, anyone in the known if in those countries stricter lockdown meassures have been implemented? And at which date?

 

With strict lockdown I mean closing down of non-essential business and social distancing rules in public. I don't consider less strict curfews during the night, or closure of educational institutions only, or lockdown of only very small regions very strict.

 

An unique case I came across was Malawi:

 

 

On 14 April, President Mutharika announced a 21-day lockdown starting Saturday 18 April at midnight.^[16] However, on 17 April, the Malawi High Court temporarily barred the government from implementing the 21-day lockdown following a petition by the Human Rights Defenders Coalition.^[17] The argument made by the Human Rights Defenders Coalition was that more consultation was needed to prevent harm to the poorest and most vulnerable of society.^[18]

 

Malawi only had seen 3 covid deaths since Apr. 7th. Since I stayed there for 3 months, as one of the bitter-poorest countries in this world, they truely have more monstrous problems than covid.

 

Further upcoming countries don't seem to have a strict lockdown implemented either:

 

Syria

Myanmar

Tanzania

Senegal

Zambia

Kyrgyzstan

Ethiopia

Somalia

Gabon

Edited by pamojja, 27 April 2020 - 12:17 PM.

[gamesguru]

Sweden has restricted mass gatherings and so is not truly "lockdown-free".  Nicaragua will likely also impose some basic restraint in coming weeks.

 

Therefore they are not a true control, and are probably 10-30% along the curve in figure 2a of post 354.

 

In the opinion of most, this will backfire for them.  None of the mentioned countries had their first reported cases in January, the spread of any disease is initially slow.  Be patient

 

.. Anyone know where to access this data in CSV or JSON format?  I can write us a python script to check these numbers daily.  A averaging metrics across 30+ countries is a calculation that shouldn't be done manually.

[Hebbeh]

https://m.stamfordad...ic-15228817.php

U.S. deaths soared in early weeks of pandemic, far exceeding number attributed to covid-19

In the early weeks of the coronavirus epidemic, the United States recorded an estimated 15,400 excess deaths, nearly two times as many as were publicly attributed to covid-19 at the time, according to an analysis of federal data conducted for The Washington Post by a research team led by the Yale School of Public Health.

The excess deaths - the number beyond what would normally be expected for that time of year - occurred during March and through April 4, a time when 8,128 coronavirus deaths were reported.

[gamesguru]

Yes there are people dying in their homes, undiagnosed suspicious pneumonia deaths, people dying of unrelated conditions that would normally be treatable but not when the health system is in crisis (e.g. heart attacks, dialysis treatment).

 

The only deaths being spared really are from flu that the social isolation has cut down on.  But that number is fairy small to begin with, and the lock-downs were mostly implemented after flu season, so..