914 replies to this topic

[Hip]

New coronavirus mutation "out of control" in the UK. 

 

Ireland, Italy, Belgium and Netherlands ban flights from UK, to try to stop the new mutation spreading. 

[Mr Serendipity]

https://timeforrecov...g/mutantstrain/

Matt Hancock challenged to reveal details of so-called ‘mutant strain’

19/12/20

Recovery today challenged Health Secretary Matt Hancock to reveal the details of the strain of SARS COV-19 that he announced on Monday as a new and more infectious mutation, as evidence emerged that those claims may have been seriously misleading.

On Tuesday 15 December, Professor Nick Loman of the Covid-19 Genomics UK (COG UK) consortium, identified the new set of mutations as VUI – 202012/0. He confirmed that it is not new, as COG UK identified it in September, and there is no proof that it is more infectious. As Professor Sharon Peacock, COG Director, pointed out: “We are still dealing with very thin evidence at the moment about this variant.”

Dr Maria van Kerkhove, the technical lead of COVID-19 response and the head of emerging diseases and zoonosis unit at WHO, has also confirmed that the strain involved has been circulating for many months, though she referred to it as N501Y.

“There is a lot of trivial diversity in the spike protein.  Over 20000 variants have been reported,” commented Professor David Livermore, Professor of Medical Microbiology at the University of East Anglia. “What is the hard evidence that this new variant really is so different against this background of great diversity? Apparently VUI202012/0 was first found in September. It’s not clear where it came from or how long it had existed previously. The delay before it expanded doesn’t fit with super-infectiousness. Any variant of SAR COV-19 might expand swiftly because it gets into a part of the country which has had a relatively low prior exposure to SARS-CoV2 – like  Kent or East Anglia – rather than because it has any particular biological advantage. As ever, talk of ‘exponential spread’ is misleading. We have now repeatedly seen that as exposure rises, spread slows.”

[Mind]

Dr. Birx violates COVID rules and restrictions: https://apnews.com/a...b70746bdc9bc61?

 

High ranking health officials, high ranking politicians, and wealthy elites continue to flout any and all COVID, rules, regulations, and guidance. What do they know that they are not telling everyone else? It is obvious they do NOT think it is a deadly, contagious, or worrisome disease - based upon their actions.

 

Meanwhile a guy in Ireland gets 2 months in prison for not wearing a mask, even though he had a medical exemption, and was at a funeral.

 

 

[Hip]

High ranking health officials, high ranking politicians, and wealthy elites continue to flout any and all COVID, rules, regulations, and guidance. What do they know that they are not telling everyone else? It is obvious they do NOT think it is a deadly, contagious, or worrisome disease - based upon their actions.

 

That's an illogical statement. 

 

People flout rules because they know as long as the majority of others are following them, the pandemic is keep under control. 

 

 

 

 

By the way, those who struggle to understand logic and the science of the pandemic: have you ever looked into the nootropic piracetam? It can increase logical skills. I've often used this when facing complex technical tasks, and found it pretty effective at improving logical thought and working memory.

Edited by Hip, 21 December 2020 - 09:05 PM.

[Mr Serendipity]

People flout rules because they know as long as the majority of others are following them, the pandemic is keep under control.

So you support a 2 tiered justice system rather than equal justice under law?

General population is allowed to be prosecuted with fines and prison time for breaking COVID guidelines and laws. But persons in government or scientists with high authority can flout the same laws and guidelines they enforce upon everyone else without fear of prosecution.

[Hip]

So you support a 2 tiered justice system rather than equal justice under law?

 

You are not following the point that I made to @Mind.

 

I am not justifying breaking the rules, but I don't subscribe to his conspiracy theory, which to quote: "What do they know that they are not telling everyone else? It is obvious they do NOT think it is a deadly, contagious, or worrisome disease - based upon their actions."

 

My response was in that context.

[Mr Serendipity]

Understood, my misunderstanding.

[gamesguru]

Dr. Birx violates COVID rules and restrictions:

High ranking health officials, high ranking politicians, and wealthy elites continue to flout any and all COVID, rules, regulations, and guidance. What do they know that they are not telling everyone else? It is obvious they do NOT think it is a deadly, contagious, or worrisome disease - based upon their actions.

Meanwhile a guy in Ireland gets 2 months in prison for not wearing a mask, even though he had a medical exemption, and was at a funeral.[/url]

Maybe they don't believe it's so deadly on a personal level, but generally recommend cautious behavior in an attempt to curb hospital capacity and save (or delay the loss of) life?

What would you prefer to see, the CDC reversing its recommendation on masks and telling people to wahoo it? Seriously?

And that sucks for the guy in Ireland but it's by no means the norm. I see many people in America without masks in supercenters and no one enforces anything.

Also, the ruling elite have always been more immune to prosecution and have always found ways of weaseling their ways out of trouble. What is absurd is positing this as somehow a new phenomenon, within the covid sphere.

[Heisok]

Red and Blue Super Centers might be a little different. A Red one has gotten compliance at the door, and hardly any removing once inside. Having said that there is almost no distancing once beyond the front of the store-not between customers, customers and workers and not within groups of workers.

[Mr Serendipity]

COVID is the biggest propaganda event in history (not that the virus exists, but everything surrounding it). All CCP’s assets all over the world have been deployed right now, ready to sell your western values down the river and destroy their economies and capitalism for the utopia of communism, hence the big push for the great reset by politicians.

 

What’s the topic of choice for the World Economic Forum this year?

 

Well of course it’s the great reset: https://www.weforum.org/great-reset/

 

Just watch the second video in this Trump tweet for a summary of what’s happening: https://mobile.twitt...948764068704256

 

You’re in the midst of a propaganda war and you don’t even realise it. This doesn’t go back a mere 4 years, it’s been decades in the making, an infiltration of every major facet of every country, their corporations, and their institutions.

 

You won’t see how many corporations and persons are under the influence and controlled by the CCP until all is revealed, how many fingers they have in the pie, though there is plenty of information out there, and you can already determine a lot of players already.

 

Here’s a snippet in recent news:

 

https://www.telegrap...nk-ccp-members/

https://www.dailymai...nist-Party.html

 

People don’t understand the magnitude of what’s about to happen, but they will soon.

 

Trumps Executive Order on Imposing Certain Sanctions in the Event of Foreign Interference in a United States Election from 2018:

 

https://www.whitehou...tates-election/

 

Allows asset seizure of all involved in trying to interfere with US elections. Every small fry to the biggest fry who have been compromised by the CCP and have been actively leading an effort to interfere with the US election will have their assets seized (whether done covertly or overtly). This goes from the small fish like celebrities, to bigger fish like politicians, judges, institutions, to even bigger fish, multi billion dollar and trillion dollar companies, banks, wall street, everything and everyone involved is going down, there’s a huge tangled web of infiltration and corruption with decades in the making.

 

Anyone catch what Chris Miller Acting Secretary of Defence said on December 18th when he went off script?

 

https://mobile.twitt...893849946886145

 

We've gone through some of the most complex Military Operations this country has ever conducted, and your steady hand and leadership during those was a great source of strength for me

 

He’s only been acting secretary of defence since November 9th, what are the most complex military operations this country has ever conducted is he talking about in this small time frame?

 

You have to think BIG, bigger than you usually think. Do you think Trump is going to step aside on the biggest election interference that’s ever happened, just to let another political swamp establishment send our countries into communism and tyranny. You just have to look into the atrocities communist China is actively involved with to see what an evil world we’d live in if they would have won.

 

You think the courts matter and are going to stop Trump fulfilling his plan?
 

The whole point of every defeat in the courts is to expose the infiltration and corruption that exist in the current institutions, and that the only option left will be military tribunals. Case in point the Nuremberg Trials.

 

What you are all about to witness is the collapse of the 2 tiered justice system and equal justice under law.

 

US Constitution, Article 2, Section 1, Clause 8.

 

8: Before he enter on the Execution of his Office, he shall take the following Oath or Affirmation:—“I do solemnly swear (or affirm) that I will faithfully execute the Office of President of the United States, and will to the best of my Ability, preserve, protect and defend the Constitution of the United States.”

 

Who has all the executive power? (regardless of what agencies exist under the executive branch, FBI, DOJ, etc..)
 

Article II (Article 2 - Executive) Section 1

1: The executive Power shall be vested in a President of the United States of America. He shall hold his Office during the Term of four Years, and, together with the Vice President, chosen for the same Term, be elected, as follows

Trump has all of it.

 

The whole point of the executive branch of government is to defend the constitution and enforce the laws congress passes. He is the commander in chief of the military and navy (in the constitution), which leads to the only option of military tribunals when all other legal means for justice fail.

 

Just think about how many laws that have already been passed in Congress that have been broken and would implicate so many companies, institutions, and elite persons of society, but have always had the privilege of a 2 tiered justice system (infiltration of the executive branch and judiciary branch) to protect them. It doesn’t matter what laws are on the book if no one is enforcing them equally.

 

It’s time to rejoice people. What you are about to witness by the 20th of January is the start of the end. The hammer is going to come down hard, and all the corruption will be revealed in the coming years, as well as the distribution of stolen wealth (from the countries) of all involved, and a return to true capitalism and liberty for all, and the advantages that come along with it. Remember when only the man could work, afford the house, and provide the livelihood? What changed?

 

We’re all in the midst of a propaganda war, and you can already see the choice, communism (zero assets and possessions) and the slavery it brings sold under the guise of the great reset, or restored real capatilism and freedom. There is zero chance Biden will be the next president, ZERO.

 

Don’t think of it as such a bad thing, when all the corruption and fraud is rooted out, wealth will increase everywhere. Extremely low taxes, most likely the complete abolition of income taxes, countries governments will be funded by tariffs, back to minimum and efficient government, rather than bloated and corrupt.

 

We’ve lived in a funny money system for nearly a century now when the gold standard was removed and replaced with floating point currency. Take the Bank of England’s word for it: https://www.bankofen...ern-economy.pdf

 

Commercial banks create money, in the form of bank deposits, by making new loans. When a bank makes a loan, for example to someone taking out a mortgage to buy a house, it does not typically do so by giving them thousands of pounds worth of banknotes. Instead, it credits their bank account with a bank deposit of the size of the mortgage. At that moment, new money is created. For this reason, some economists have referred to bank deposits as ‘fountain pen money’, created at the stroke of bankers’ pens when they approve loans.(1)

Even their own document bolds the “at that moment, new money is created”.

 

We’re all in a giant game of monopoly. Banks make money out of thin air backed by nothing, and then charge interest on it which can never be paid back because there’s not enough money in circulation, which then strips the citizens and their country of their assets and wealth. That’s how the whole worlds wealth has been stolen, the funny money system is totally fraudulent.

 

Consider all your mortgages and debts of credit written off in the coming years, for example buyer keeps house, seller keeps money, bank keeps nothing. Since all credit is currently fraudulently made, they are all null and void when the law is enforced properly and all the banks and companies that have stripped the wealth of countries are seized by Trump/US government.

 

This is the big picture folks, people with understanding will see it now, others will find out when it all gets revealed publicly.

 

The last 4 years wasn’t another 4 year election. It was and is about setting up all that was required to execute this massive plan, as well exposing the propaganda, people, governments, and institutions of their corruption to awaken people up enough that the big event won’t be such a massive blow to their psyche.

 

Merry Christmas and Praise God!

Edited by Jesus is King, 25 December 2020 - 02:29 AM.

[gamesguru]

If you needed COVID to realize how our once great nation is being chunked up bit by bit and sold overseas... you haven't been paying close attention!

[Mr Serendipity]

You shouldn’t be making false assumptions.

[geo12the]

 

 

It’s time to rejoice people. What you are about to witness by the 20th of January is the start of the end. 

 

 

 

You are correct about one thing. There will be much rejoicing on January 20. When Trump leaves! Seriously though, what kooky conspiracy theory will you latch onto then? 

[Mr Serendipity]

I’m so sure Trump will continue to be president, this I 100% believe. However if I’m wrong in this one point and this one point only (as the rest is my own theory of connections of how the bigger picture fits), then I promise I will never post on this entire forum again (and  probably question my whole reality and belief system for a long time after too). You have my word.

[joesixpack]

How is this dangerous or irresponsible? 

[Dorian Grey]

Got to have thick skin if you decide to step into the political arena. (Biotin, aka vitamin-H good for Haar und Haut; German for "hair and skin")

 

I was progressive all my life till cancel culture, censorship & other misadventures shook me to the core.  The fanatical suppression of HCQ the final nail in the coffin for me.  Whether or not it works well (or at all) is beside the point.  It was our only plausible outpatient therapeutic for many months, & the hysteria over "the danger" of a patients' right to try, & doctor to prescribe off label was blown out of all reasonable proportion by politics of the party I loved for decades.  I actually blew a C-note on cinchona bark (quinine) & now have eaten horse paste because of the therapeutic nihilism going on.  Doctors in second & third world countries are treating their patients (and getting good results!), while first world countries are going up in flames with sickness, disease, & economic ruin (for all but the ultra-wealthy).  

 

The deathly silence surrounding ivermectin seems a calm before the storm.  Is IVM going to be the new HCQ?  Do we really want to go down that road again with multiple new strains of "Super-COVID" popping up all around the world, that may well evade our vaccines?  I've reached an age where I don't get too excited about politics, but when you start messing with my health & safety in the heat of a pandemic, you've made a new enemy.  I actually voted libertarian this election.  

 

Oscar Wilde once said: “It is absurd to divide people into good and bad. People are either charming or tedious.”  While Trump falls to the latter, I don't see his COVID response as madness or evil.  The lock-downs aren't working...  Let's try & treat this.  Makes sense to me.  Perhaps Joe's wearing masks for 100 days really is  the better solution?  Time will tell.  

[Dorian Grey]

Los Angeles Locked Down. Covid Came Anyway

 

https://www.yahoo.co...-160019658.html

 

Los Angeles has endured nine months of a shutdown more extreme than most of the country’s — or the world’s. 

 

As Covid patients overwhelm local hospitals, filling intensive care units and consuming so much oxygen that hospitals warn of shortages — oxygen shortages! — my home contradicts the simple narrative that coronavirus outbreaks are righteous punishment for red state disregard. You can adopt every stricture, follow every rule, and still wind up with a crisis. The virus is relentless — and still more mysterious than we like to admit. The lockdown is wearisome. For those whose livelihoods are now illegal, it’s a crisis in itself.

 

--------------------

 

Doctors, nurses 'can't take much more' amid Covid-19 surge in Southern California

 

https://www.yahoo.co...-093000610.html

 

In Los Angeles County, someone dies every 10 minutes from Covid-19, public health officials say. More than 7,400 people were hospitalized with Covid-19 on Wednesday. The data were released just hours after Gov. Gavin Newsom announced that a potentially more contagious variant of the coronavirus had been found in Southern California.

Los Angeles County Public Health Director Barbara Ferrer said in a statement: "Our healthcare workers are overwhelmed with Covid-19 patients and this current path of surging Covid-19 hospitalizations is not sustainable."

 

----------------------

 

HCQ?         Fauci: NO!

favipiravir?      Fauci: NO!

ivermectin?     Fauci: NO!

fluvoxamine?  Fauci: NO!

famotidine?    Fauci: NO!

melatonin?     Fauci: NO!

Lactoferrin?    Fauci: NO!

vitamin D?      Fauci: NO!

Vitamin-C?     Fauci: NO!  

Zinc?              Fauci: NO!

Aspirin?          Fauci: NO!  

 

It's been a year...  Throw us a fricken' bone Fauci.  

Fauci: NO!

 

What do you have for us Dr Fauci? 

REMDESIVIR!  It doesn't work, but hospitals will earn 100K giving it to you as you circle the drain.  

 

Doctor NO is going to crash the entire economy if someone doesn't point out, this emperor wears no clothes! 

Edited by Dorian Grey, 01 January 2021 - 09:00 AM.

[geo12the]

 

 

----------------------

 

HCQ?         Fauci: NO!

favipiravir?      Fauci: NO!

ivermectin?     Fauci: NO!

fluvoxamine?  Fauci: NO!

famotidine?    Fauci: NO!

melatonin?     Fauci: NO!

Lactoferrin?    Fauci: NO!

vitamin D?      Fauci: NO!

Vitamin-C?     Fauci: NO!  

Zinc?              Fauci: NO!

Aspirin?          Fauci: NO!  

 

 

 

 

 

Fauci himself takes Vitamin D. And he does recommend it:  

 

https://www.cnbc.com...em-healthy.html

 

"I don't see his (Trump) COVID response as madness or evil"   The response to COVID has been rudderless because it's too complex of a problem from Trump's lizard brain. Trump should have ramped up testing so people infected could stay home. But he was annoyed that the numbers of cases made him look bad and took the opposite route. That act of vanity caused more people to get sick. He downplayed the severity of the virus and made fun of people for wearing masks. Then he got COVID and benefited from an experimental treatment none of us can get. He went on rants about bleach and promoted Demon sperm doctor. The rollout of the vaccines has been slow and disorganized. He could have ramped up the production of inexpensive test kits so more people could be tested and stay home if they are positive.  Things can only improve with the change in administration. We will see what the future holds, it's a scary time but I am hopeful. 

 

​Iveremctin is in the Avermectin group of compounds of which there are several. All derived from the bacteria  Streptomyces avermitilis. I use one of them, Abamectin, as an insecticide for my plants. I wonder, if Iveremectin is really found to be effective against COVID as current data suggests, might one of the other derivatives work even better? 

 

https://en.wikipedia...idal properties

Edited by geo12the, 01 January 2021 - 05:47 PM.

[Dorian Grey]

I recall when Fauci admitted he was taking Vitamin-D.  It was a couple of days later before he was asked point blank if he recommended this for others.  His reply was rather obtuse.  While he didn't say NO, rather than endorsing its use, he said something like "there's a cheaper alternative...  Just wear a mask".  

 

Don't know if he's endorsed it since then, but I'd like to see a source if he did.  I think this would have been reported in the news: "Fauci recommends Vitamin-D for all to reduce COVID morbidity".  Don't believe this has happened.  

 

Trump has downplayed the pandemic at times, much like the WHO (no person to person spread) and Fauci & the Surgeon General (no need for masks at this time).  Don't know if anyone has gotten it perfect from the start.  Biden's plan of 100 days of masks seems a bit anemic (pathetic!).  Is this really all you got for us Joe?  

 

What we really need is an outpatient therapeutic.  Keep people out of hospitals, & they won't die!  If people stop dying, we can end the endless lock-downs.  

[Florin]

Getting adequate nutrition is a no-brainer, pandemic or no pandemic, Fauci or no Fauci.

 

There are likely two major factors driving the increase in cases: an increase in private gatherings (probably poorly-ventilated and maskless) and more contagious strains of the virus. The solution is also a no-brainer: wear a respirator.

[Danail Bulgaria]

Recently I heared another conspiracy theory. Very unusual and juicy.

It claims, that the masks and respirators are reducing the oxygen concentration in the blood, and thus non symptomatically reducing our ability to think correct. The aim has been to make us easy to control.

Just listing it in the appropriate topic.

 

[Daniel Cooper]

Getting adequate nutrition is a no-brainer, pandemic or no pandemic, Fauci or no Fauci.

 

There are likely two major factors driving the increase in cases: an increase in private gatherings (probably poorly-ventilated and maskless) and more contagious strains of the virus. The solution is also a no-brainer: wear a respirator.

 

That part in bold I don't buy.

 

Go and look at the graphs for new infections.  In the northern hemisphere they started ticking up some time in mid September - mid October. In other words as summer began to wane and temperatures and humidity declined.  I just don't believe that a bunch of people in widely dispersed countries (the US, UK, France, Italy, and even Germany) all decided to simultaneously start disregarding social distancing and masking. That just seems highly unlikely.  Of course all these countries share the same seasons. 

 

It's always been known that colds spread more readily in the cooler dryer portions of the year, and 30% of all colds are caused by coronavirus. It is also well known that covid-19 is able to persist in the environment longer in colder lower humidity conditions.  Except for the more extreme latitudes of the northern hemisphere most people don't really get shut indoors until November - December. The recent uptick looks for all the world to me like a seasonal effect. As we came into winter proper (late November/December) I don't doubt that there was some decrease in social distancing since people were outdoors less, but the uptick started when temperatures were still quite temperate and conducive to outdoor activities.

 

In the US, the uptick got blamed on our Thanksgiving holiday the third week in November, but if you'll look at the graph the uptick clearly had started weeks before.

 

Here's the formally well behaved Germany which is now half way to where the US is in terms of deaths/1M pop.  Looks like the uptick started at the end of September first week of October.

 

[Hebbeh]

The kids returning to schools and colleges in September always precedes the start of the cold and flu season. In fact, many schools went back to shut down and online in October-November-December AFTER starting back up with traditional in person schooling in August-September due to the predictable and dramatic accompanying uptick in cases.

That part in bold I don't buy.

Go and look at the graphs for new infections. In the northern hemisphere they started ticking up some time in mid September - mid October. In other words as summer began to wane and temperatures and humidity declined. I just don't believe that a bunch of people in widely dispersed countries (the US, UK, France, Italy, and even Germany) all decided to simultaneously start disregarding social distancing and masking. That just seems highly unlikely. Of course all these countries share the same seasons.

It's always been known that colds spread more readily in the cooler dryer portions of the year, and 30% of all colds are caused by coronavirus. It is also well known that covid-19 is able to persist in the environment longer in colder lower humidity conditions. Except for the more extreme latitudes of the northern hemisphere most people don't really get shut indoors until November - December. The recent uptick looks for all the world to me like a seasonal effect. As we came into winter proper (late November/December) I don't doubt that there was some decrease in social distancing since people were outdoors less, but the uptick started when temperatures were still quite temperate and conducive to outdoor activities.

In the US, the uptick got blamed on our Thanksgiving holiday the third week in November, but if you'll look at the graph the uptick clearly had started weeks before.

Here's the formally well behaved Germany which is now half way to where the US is in terms of deaths/1M pop. Looks like the uptick started at the end of September first week of October.

[Daniel Cooper]

The kids returning to schools and colleges in September always precedes the start of the cold and flu season. In fact, many schools went back to shut down and online in October-November-December AFTER starting back up with traditional in person schooling in August-September due to the predictable and dramatic accompanying uptick in cases.
 

 

In my area and from what I gather a great deal of the US, few schools were doing in person teaching this fall and as you point out, those that were and saw an uptick generally went back to online teaching.  

 

So given the relatively low percentage of schools doing in person teaching, and many of those that were doing it going back to online - why didn't the infection rates tick back down?

[Florin]

Points against seasonality (environmental factors such as temperature and humidity):

• COVID activity spiked in the middle of summer in some places
• COVID activity seemed to decrease when compliance increased (but the stats are suspect)
• NYC contact tracing seems to indicate that private gatherings are the main driver of cases
• The most contagious variants that evolved in the UK and South Africa appeared in September, just when COVID activity started to increase in some places
• The flu has disappeared

What probably happened is that the more contagious, UK/SA variants started to spread around September and private gatherings supercharged the spread in the following months. On the West Coast and probably in other areas, the more contagious European variants (imported from the East Coast) outcompeted the less contagious, Asian variants.

Edited by Florin, 04 January 2021 - 09:37 PM.

[bladedmind]

Just came across this thread and have enjoyed the walk on the wild side. 

 

Oscar Wilde once said: “It is absurd to divide people into good and bad. People are either charming or tedious.”  

 

I agree with Dorian Grey’s post.  I’ve occupied several explains-it-all belief systems over 70 years and now am not predictably right or predictably left about anything political.  Some liberals are stupid, some are evil, same goes for conservatives.   But being liberal or being conservative does not make someone stupid or evil.  People have different backgrounds, life experiences, even temperaments, and they will inevitably disagree across a reasonable range about matters of public policy where it is inherently difficult to decide what is right to impose on others.   

 

I’m not fond of ad hominem or appeals to authority but this thread is so much better than the alternative:  censorship of debate by arrogantly deluded people who believe that they have the monopoly on truth.   Reading 1984 and other works on left or right authoritarianism decades ago it never occurred to me that private monopolies would become just as much a danger to free speech.  In the 1930s, Bell telephone never dreamed of denying phone service to people who had unorthodox views,   

[Daniel Cooper]

Points against seasonality (environmental factors such as temperature and humidity):

•  
• COVID activity spiked in the middle of summer in some places
•  
• COVID activity seemed to decrease when compliance increased (but the stats are suspect)
•  
• NYC contact tracing seems to indicate that private gatherings are the main driver of cases
•  
• The most contagious variants that evolved in the UK and South Africa appeared in September, just when COVID activity started to increase in some places
•  
• The flu has disappeared
•  

What probably happened is that the more contagious, UK/SA variants started to spread around September and private gatherings supercharged the spread in the following months. On the West Coast and probably in other areas, the more contagious European variants (imported from the East Coast) outcompeted the less contagious, Asian variants.

 

With regards to your mid summer peak -

 

I have seen local maxima in the middle of the summer months in some locations - but these local maxima are very small compared to the current spike.  And the thing you have to keep in mind, testing rates were still ramping through the middle of the summer months as test kits and supply shortages were finally met.  So you have view these local maxima in the light of a non-static (in fact an increasing) testing rate.  

 

In the US there was a local maxima around the 3rd week in July, when it was about 60k new cases a day.  But we hit a new peak on about December 18th of 248k new cases a day, so that peak back in July looks fairly small in comparison.

 

Let me show you what I'm talking about -

 

 

 

Notice how the new cases and new deaths don't track from the end of March till the middle of June.  Cleary, that reflects the limited amount of testing going on early on. After mid June new cases and new deaths start to track decently, so presumably test kits were not such a limiting factor during this period.  So some of that mid summer peak is an artifact of more testing.

 

There was a mid-summer peak in the deaths, but it was attenuated relative to the peak in the new cases.

 

If we want to look back over time, the only data that is of high quality is the death count. I have reasonable confidence that deaths have been counted more or less consistently over the last 10 months and the availability of testing hasn't colored the data too much.

 

In the US death graph, you clearly see a "bathtub" shape that shows high death rates in the cooler dryer months and lower death rates in the warmer more humid months. Yes, there was  small peak in the middle of the summer. That may have well have been due to July 4th gatherings in the US.  I don't for instance see that mid summer peak in Sweden's data, but I do see the same bathtub shape that looks highly seasonal to me.  BTW - if you go look at Sweden's daily new cases data and compare it to daily deaths, it's clear that Sweden wasn't testing anybody early on.

 

 

Edited by Daniel Cooper, 04 January 2021 - 10:22 PM.

[Dorian Grey]

We might also wish to consider adding the flu-shot factor into the mix.  

 

Influenza vaccine associated with predisposition to (non-COVID) coronavirus infections.  

 

https://www.lewrockw...-of-coronavirus.

 

New Study: The Flu Vaccine Is “Significantly Associated” With An Increased Risk of Coronavirus

 

"in this study, those who had been vaccinated with the flu vaccine had a 36 percent higher risk  of contracting it"

 

Don't know when the general public tend to get their jab, but at the hospital I worked at, employees were due to get their flu jab before November 1st, or wear a mask full time.  

 

Major push to get flu shot compliance this year, with the "TWINDEMIC" danger splashed across the news.  

 

OK, now that we've all got our flu shots, and we've got the social distancing, masks & hand washing down, what's going on with CORONA?  

 

Well, after a lovely period of rather benign numbers, it's now UP-UP and AWAY!  To the moon Alice!  

 

Coincidence?  

[Florin]

 
In the US death graph, you clearly see a "bathtub" shape that shows high death rates in the cooler dryer months and lower death rates in the warmer more humid months. Yes, there was  small peak in the middle of the summer. That may have well have been due to July 4th gatherings in the US.

 
It seems to be more of a 'W' than a "bathtub," and that's a problem for the seasonality idea. There's a Summer peak in only some States, and that's a problem for the July 4th idea. And in States (like Arizona, Florida, and Texas) where there was a Summer peak, the Fall peak is less than or equal to the Summer peak. In other States such as the Dakotas and Iowa, there's only one gigantic peak which started in or after September, and this is what's pushing the latest peak higher, along with smaller contributions from States like California and New York. Seasonality seems to be more of a coincidence than a real cause.
 

 

 

I don't for instance see that mid summer peak in Sweden's data, but I do see the same bathtub shape that looks highly seasonal to me.
 

 

Seasonality might be a major factor where mask wearing is not common (like in Sweden).

 

My opinion about seasonality might change if you can show a better correlation between environmental factors such as temperature and humidity and the number of cases and/or deaths. Maybe you can start with States that had the Summer Peak. For instance, what was their temp/humidity levels compared to States which lacked a Summer peak?

Edited by Florin, 05 January 2021 - 05:33 AM.

[pamojja]

My opinion about seasonality might change if you can show a better correlation between environmental factors such as temperature and humidity and the number of cases and/or deaths

Influenza and its seasonality has been studied by a guy with the name R. Edgar Hope-Simson for half a century, culminating in the book: The transmission of Epidemic Influenza. The different seasons for different latitudes examplified on page 96 of its PDF-version:

 Screenshot_20210105-124217.png   212.1KB   5 downloads

Since the US spans across different latitudes, one can see both in their graphs.

Ivor Cummins talks about it for many months already, and somewhere has a download-link to the whole book, which I can't find at the moment.


edit: uploaded and attached below

 11th-The-Transmission-of-Influenza-BOOK.pdf   23.22MB   2 downloads

Edited by pamojja, 05 January 2021 - 12:01 PM.