914 replies to this topic

[gamesguru]

The average first covid death of all 152 countries was March 18h

 

You're also comparing countries that have nothing to do with each other demographically or climatologically.

 

Yes Nicaragua and Greenland aren't facing huge number of deaths.  In fact only Nicaragua report one at all, toward nearly April 1.

 

They're also freezing cold, boiling hot, and have 0.01% the population density as major outbreaks like Milan and NYC.

Not if the total number of infected isn't known. As it isn't with covid.

 

Yes well we have different beliefs on that as well.  I believe we know about close to half of all infections through testing.  You probably believe 97% of of us have already had it and herd immunity is here today

[pamojja]

As for countries without a lockdown, the only one hit early by the virus was Sweden.  You can't compared to Nicaragua that is very, very early in its outbreak.

 

As usual, all your claims without even checking the data first. Sweden had its first death on March 11. Nicaragua on March 26. Only 2 weeks difference.
 

[gamesguru]

As usual, all your claims without even checking the data first. Sweden had its first death on March 11. Nicaragua on March 26. Only 2 weeks difference.
 

 

The temperature also is believed to be on Nicaragua's side, as the coronavirus prefer winter-time months.

 

And 2 week is a lot.

 

And for all we know the first death in Sweden was in January, and the testing in Nicaragua is not up to scale and perhaps the outbreak is killing thousands there but they haven't confirmed it.  See how far you can stretch the truth by making wild assumptions?

[pamojja]

Yes well we have different beliefs on that as well.  I believe we know about close to half of all infections through testing.  You probably believe 97% of of us have already had it and herd immunity is here today

 

And with no data in support of your blind beliefes already repeatedly shown wrong. All what you can do is wild accusation about me again without any reality.

 

I clearly said the infection number can't be known at this point.
 

[gamesguru]

I clearly said the infection number can't be known at this point.

 

Then how can you talk about an "average peak".

 

How the hell can you say 150 countries peaked if you have no idea the number infected

[Danail Bulgaria]

Which doesn't supports your claim. Have a closer look by not myopically only looking at worst countries all with brude lockdowns.
 

 

Not supporting my views?

 

Russia was the first that closed its border with China after the Russians understood about the virus.

 

Can't you see the death toll per million?

 

USA - 203 / million
Italy - 475 / million

 

Russia - 8 / million

 

Bulgaria. Here we locked down affected towns, districts, quarantinized with force all infected, locked down the main routs, forbid walking in the parks, implemented wearing masks by law

our toll - 10 / million

[pamojja]

You're also comparing countries that have nothing to do with each other demographically or climatologically.

 

I really want to have a clear picture of all countries, especially interesting with their different conditons. They all have covid deaths in common.

 

Then how can you talk about an "average peak".

 

How the hell can you say 150 countries peaked if you have no idea the number infected

 

The worst which happens is death. Not being infected, which the fast majority wouldn't even know. The number of infected is as interesting as the number of years I've been infected with influenzias, with nothing more than a sniffle. Completely irrelevant. Beside being impossible to know at this point.

 

The peaks of deaths, the real malady with covid affecting only a tiny minority of infected, can be known, is meaningfull, and we can of course talk about. Though most like to prefer to stray to believes without evidence.

 

But I'm already used to your permanent strategy, ad hominem alternated with straw mans. Never replying to any direct answer. But always going in circles, never about real existing data. But your believes without support of any evidence, than taking this or that country, just as needed to support your bias.

[pamojja]

Not supporting my views?

 

Russia was the first that closed its border with China after the Russians understood about the virus.

 

Can't you see the death toll per million?

 

USA - 203 / million
Italy - 475 / million

 

Russia - 8 / million

 

Bulgaria. Here we locked down affected towns, districts, quarantinized with force all infected, locked down the main routs, forbid walking in the parks, implemented wearing masks by law

our toll - 10 / million

 

Now compare to all 154 by covid-deaths affected countries, to see if the difference remains significant. As it stands now. Just cherry-picking countries, as the infamous 7-country study of Ancel Keys, to prove a bias. Make it robust by considering all countries affected.
 

[gamesguru]

I really want to have a clear picture of all countries, especially interesting with their different conditons. They all have covid deaths in common.
 

The worst which happens is death. Not being infected, which the fast majority wouldn't even know. The number of infected is as interesting as the number of years I've been infected with influenzias, with nothing more than a sniffle. Completely irrelevant. Beside being impossible to know at this point.

Yes but what they lack in common is maturity of the outbreak and scalability of testing.  I'm not going to consider early outbreaks or countries struggling to test anyone as part of my data set.  It lowers the quality of the data to include small sample sizes.

 

And do you not see how a big leap has been made in going from "can't know the true extent of yearly influenza outbreaks" to going to saying "COVID-19 is possibly endemic and has way lower fatality than credible shred of evidence would seem to suggest".

 

Even the flu has obvious symptoms in all infections.  I don't buy into the theory coronavirus is asymptomatic in more than 15-50% of people tops.

Edited by gamesguru, 02 May 2020 - 09:54 PM.

[pamojja]

It lowers the quality of the data to include small sample sizes..

 

Lol. Exactly why I accuse you of cherry picking 3-4 countries to support your bias. No data at all. Not to talk about quality.
 

[Danail Bulgaria]

Now compare to all 154 by covid-deaths affected countries, to see if the difference remains significant. As it stands now. Just cherry-picking countries, as the infamous 7-country study of Ancel Keys, to prove a bias. Make it robust by considering all countries affected.
 

 

For many of the other countries affected by the coronavirus, I don't know if their statstics is correct.
 

I would compare only the countries, for which I believe, that are making correct statistics.

[gamesguru]

Lol. Exactly why I accuse you of cherry picking 3-4 countries to support your bias. No data at all. Not to talk about quality.

 

On the contrary each country represents a data set, exclude those without adequate testing for best results.

 

But you gawked at the idea of a Python program and instead quoted your favorite news source, like that was supposed to prove you're unbiased?

[pamojja]

But you gawked at the idea of a Python program and instead quoted your favorite news source, like that was supposed to prove you're unbiased?

 

I more ironically said we both, me with my manual spreadsheet, you with your non-existing python script, could just trash it. The data appears already too unambiguous concerning brude lockdowns almost everywhere implemented too late. But that might be proven really only in about a years time. The more sensible meassures, like social distancing of vulnerables, really nobody ever questioned.

 

But now its my fault for you not really being inquisitive and sedated by your biased beliefes? - Don't be intellectually so lazy. Give your best and prove me wrong with real transparant data and your phyton script.

 

 

For many of the other countries affected by the coronavirus, I don't know if their statstics is correct.
 

I would compare only the countries, for which I believe, that are making correct statistics.

 

Just do it. Instead of mere relyance on 4 countries. Most countries* statistics are somehow imprecise. We almost definitely know, that dictatorial countries, like Iran and China, propably also Russia, must have underreported. We also know many countries in the west did what was never done before, by adding covid on mere suspiction, and thereby overreported. If you only rely on your beliefes, your result is bound to become biased. Just try to make it as unbiased as possible. You will find many dozens countries of the now 153 without under- or overreporting.

 

 

I personally want to keep an eye on all of them. If the results start to appear too skewed I'll will make adjustments by excluding less advanced countries in the epidemic again, or exclude less relyable numbers. As I did actually in the beginning. But found by including all it didn't skewed the endresults. Over- and underreporting together of all countries seems to just cancel each out again.
 

Edited by pamojja, 02 May 2020 - 10:50 PM.

[gamesguru]

But now its my fault for you not really being inquisitive and sedated by your biased beliefes? - Don't be intellectually so lazy. Give your best and prove me wrong with real transparant data and your phyton script.

 

Let's find the data.  As you suggest, it is not so precise.

 

As best a round of Googling could turn up, I found this

• Lockdowns: https://www.kaggle.c...ates-by-country (but the IHME page is already more specific.. hmm)
• Cases and deaths: https://datahub.io/core/covid-19#data
• Granular data for USA: https://github.com/n...s/covid-19-data

Based on that, it seems we need more precise information about lock-down dates like IHME provides, e.g. see attachment for a glimpse into what California did.  You can see other countries here (for example The Netherlands), but it is not in CSV or JSON format.

Attached Files

•  Screenshot_2020-05-02 IHME COVID-19 Projections.png   28.85KB   0 downloads

[smithx]

If one still believes in models, all till now shown to have been plainly wrong. Based on assumptions purely speculative, like an at this point impossible to know R0.
 

 

These models let you set the R0 and see how things play out (among other parameters). Which you would have known had you bothered to look at it before commenting

 

[pamojja]

These models let you set the R0 and see how things play out (among other parameters). Which you would have known had you bothered to look at it before commenting

 

Models let one only calculate the R0 by assuming the number of how many are infected by the time it took. The number of infected isn't known. It could be double all now positive infected, it could be 10 or 30 times as much. All speculative and thereby turning out wrong again and again.
 

But look at practical examples: Taiwan (without brude lockdown) is about 3 months after its first infection with only 6 deaths. France (with very strict lockdowns) and about equal time in, had a whooping 24,760 deaths. Where it already becomes obvious, even if the total number of infected would be known by now - which it absolutely isn't - the reproduction number could turn out a 100s-fold difference between different countries. Multiplying that difference with a up to 30-fold different estimations, one ends up with a number completely unrelated to down to earth reality.

Edited by pamojja, 03 May 2020 - 08:53 AM.

[Danail Bulgaria]

I see it here and now how quaranteening and "locking down" peple with coronavirus stops the spread of the disease. Its completely illogical to let the infected spread all your country and you not to have high dead rate.

[pamojja]

I see it here and now how quaranteening and "locking down" peple with coronavirus stops the spread of the disease. Its completely illogical to let the infected spread all your country and you not to have high dead rate.

 

As illogical it may appear to you, that is what the available data from all affected countries unequivocally shows.

 

Not because lockdowns would so much have prevended spreading - which hygiene-, social-distancing meassures and tracking just as well could have accomplished (as in Sweden) - but because brude lockdown were implemented too late when the spread already happened. While in most countries without lockdown the increased spreading luckily never took off (like in Taiwan in above example with more intelligent meassures without brude lockdowns, but from its very beginning). And therefore never experienced the panic based on wrong models, which so many countries made react blindly with brude lockdowns.
 

Of now 156 affected countries, there are 35 without lockdowns. Together at about 0.16 times the average 2017 influenca mortality rate. Even while including the only exception of Sweden, with now 3.89 times the 2017 rate.

 

Which leaves 121 countries with lockdowns. Only 16 of which experienced an in average 5.57 times the average 2017 mortality. Including all other remaining countries with lockdown, the average is 1.02 the 2017 mortality rate.

 

Therefore one finds a 6-fold higher mortality in countries with lockdowns, considering all countries. Which again doesn't prove already that lockdowns compared to its lack would have caused higher mortality. But the other way round. Correlation doesn't prove causation. It was the higher mortality to beginn with, which caused too late lockdowns.

Edited by pamojja, 03 May 2020 - 09:32 AM.

[Mind]

Remember that many countries are adding in thousands of "presumptive cases" into the fatalities. New York added 3,700 presumptive cases in one day...cases that they said had not been analyzed before. No positive test.

 

This has been a critique leveled by some doctors, epidemiologists, statisticians, etc...basically, every death is being labeled as a COVID death. (Belgium counts every death as COVID, no matter the test, Germany only the positive tests, so Germany is more accurate)

 

The PCR test does have a false positive/negative rate, but I am not sure what it is, can't find data on that.

 

The counting of every death as COVID and the error rate of the test make it difficult to be definitive about CFR or true mortality rate.

 

 

[Danail Bulgaria]

The problem in my country is not that the lockdown was too late.

 

The very first two people, that appeared with COVID 19 were immediately hospitalized and isolated. Their contacted persons were found by police units, and were locked at home for quarantine.

 

If we were living in a normal world, that would be enough to stop the COVID 19 in the entire country.

 

The problem is that infeced scam is comming back home in Bulgaria from the entire world to be fucking treated here, because the dumb govermnemt provides them affordable treatment. 

All of that imported COVID 19 infected junks had to be disallowed to come back in Bulgaria, and their airplanes should have not been allowed to land in Bulgaria at all. If they have choosen to work abroad, they had to be given the abroad health care and be left to stay in their abroad and rot  there.

 

 

 

 

[pamojja]

Hate speech against those affected wont bring you any closer to the truth.

[Danail Bulgaria]

I am not blind and dumb. I see what's going on.

 

We are moving on a software program:

 

10 Quaranteen the infected

 

20 Let the next airplane with infected "compatriots" land to whip how they are refused treatment in USA, Great Britain, Germany, France etc.,

 

30 Put them long enough to infect some more dumb asses, such as "parents", "friends", "sons" and "daughters" etc. 

 

40 Collect them all and prepare them for free treatment

 

50 go to step 10

 

Edited by seivtcho, 03 May 2020 - 09:52 AM.

[pamojja]

I see it here and now how quaranteening and "locking down" peple with coronavirus stops the spread of the disease. Its completely illogical to let the infected spread all your country and you not to have high dead rate.

 

I am not blind and dumb. I see what's going on.

 

You watch too much TV and don't fact-check what you see.

 

Bulgaria is one of the lucky countries which till now got almost totally spared from any epidemic. It has only 0.15 times the deaths of covid as in average is experienced from influenzia and pneumonia during the same period.

 

 Screenshot_2020-05-03 Bulgaria Coronavirus 1,611 Cases and 72 Deaths - Worldometer.png   27.55KB   0 downloads

 

In comparison Austria, which at now 0.97 times was very lucky too, in that it didn't experienced more deaths from covid than in average from flu.

 

 Screenshot_2020-05-03 Austria Coronavirus 15,597 Cases and 598 Deaths - Worldometer.png   30.23KB   0 downloads

 

Austria and Bulgaria had both its first covid-death on March 11 and 12 respectively. Bulgaria has a population of almost 7, Austria almost 9 million. Despite only about a third larger population, our covid death-toll has been more than 8 times the one in Bulgaria.

 

Austria implemented lockdown on March 16th. Now interestingly, I didn't find any information about a real lock-down for Bulgaria: https://en.wikipedia...lgaria#Response

 

Even though you claimed it essential to your countrie's success. Non-essential shops still seem to be open. Non-compliance of social-distancing in public seems still not to be prosecuted.

 

You seem even to confuse social-distancing of vulnerables only - with strict lockdown of the whole population - as it was practiced here and most other countries?

Edited by pamojja, 03 May 2020 - 02:43 PM.

[Danail Bulgaria]

To tell the true, I started thinking why I have to continue to argue with you. I simply asked myself why?

 

Simply to oppose you and to argue with you? I don't need my blood preasure to rise. I preeffer more relaxed lifestyle.

To change your mind? You are so brainwahsed, that you will not change it.

To open the eyes of those, who vote me dangerous and irresponsible? Who pays me for that...

To make someone who thinks like me expose himself with a post? If in his country, in his real life, if he is surrounded by idiots, exposing his correct thoughts may do him harm. Why?

 

Yes, strict measures were very essential for my country's success. No, you don't think so? Your problem.

 

There are other success factors too, Yes, not only the strict measures. And you know what? I don't have even the intent to discuss them.

 

 

 

 

Edited by seivtcho, 03 May 2020 - 03:47 PM.

[osris]

Just saw this on Twitter:

 

"This video mentions (in the first 10 minutes) how the Covid vaccine will comprise of 3 injections, 2 of which will trigger electrical impulses in your cells to modify your DNA’s programming."

 

 

Is that correct? If so it worries me, especially as I am in the UK where the vaccine will be mandatory, according to this tweet I just saw:

 

"Mandatory vaccines now UK law, along with detention and forced vaccination if you don't comply, and with confiscation of property."

 

 

 

 

 

[gamesguru]

Bulgaria is one of the lucky countries

 

right, so it doesn't count, but the countries with barely any data to report are fine

[Hebbeh]

https://www.nytimes....ie-garrett.html

………. Read complete article at link

Despite the stock market’s swoon for it, remdesivir probably isn’t our ticket out, she told me. “It’s not curative,” she said, pointing out that the strongest claims so far are that it merely shortens the recovery of Covid-19 patients. “We need either a cure or a vaccine.”

But she can’t envision that vaccine anytime in the next year, while Covid-19 will remain a crisis much longer than that.

“I’ve been telling everybody that my event horizon is about 36 months, and that’s my best-case scenario,” she said.

“I’m quite certain that this is going to go in waves,” she added. “It won’t be a tsunami that comes across America all at once and then retreats all at once. It will be micro-waves that shoot up in Des Moines and then in New Orleans and then in Houston and so on, and it’s going to affect how people think about all kinds of things.”

They’ll re-evaluate the importance of travel. They’ll reassess their use of mass transit. They’ll revisit the need for face-to-face business meetings. They’ll reappraise having their kids go to college out of state.

So, I asked, is “back to normal,” a phrase that so many people cling to, a fantasy?

“This is history right in front of us,” Garrett said. “Did we go ‘back to normal’ after 9/11? No. We created a whole new normal. We securitized the United States. We turned into an antiterror state. And it affected everything. We couldn’t go into a building without showing ID and walking through a metal detector, and couldn’t get on airplanes the same way ever again. That’s what’s going to happen with this.”

Not the metal detectors, but a seismic shift in what we expect, in what we endure, in how we adapt.

Maybe in political engagement, too, Garrett said.

If America enters the next wave of coronavirus infections “with the wealthy having gotten somehow wealthier off this pandemic by hedging, by shorting, by doing all the nasty things that they do, and we come out of our rabbit holes and realize, ‘Oh, my God, it’s not just that everyone I love is unemployed or underemployed and can’t make their maintenance or their mortgage payments or their rent payments, but now all of a sudden those jerks that were flying around in private helicopters are now flying on private personal jets and they own an island that they go to and they don’t care whether or not our streets are safe,’ then I think we could have massive political disruption.”

“Just as we come out of our holes and see what 25 percent unemployment looks like,” she said, “we may also see what collective rage looks like.”

[Hebbeh]

https://www.nytimes....pgtype=Homepage

Coronavirus Live Updates: Trump Administration Models Predict Near Doubling of Daily Death Toll by June

The Trump administration projects about 3,000 daily deaths by early June.

forecast about 200,000 new cases each day by the end of the month, up from about 25,000 cases now.

[gamesguru]

Trump administration projects about 3,000 daily deaths by early June.

 

Seems pessimistic.  They've been wrong about everything else so far, why start trusting them now?

[Hebbeh]

Seems pessimistic.  They've been wrong about everything else so far, why start trusting them now?

 

How many deaths do you predict?  Realize we'll be over 70,000 deaths by the time you read this.