914 replies to this topic

[Advocatus Diaboli]

Re: post #900 written by Florin

 

What do the graphs you link to have to do with the fact that Sweden has already attained pre-pandemic economic levels, Finland is not expected to return to pre-pandemic economic levels until 2022 and Norway's economy has yet to fully recover to pre-pandemic levels, as of 7/22/2021?.

 

 

Quote from RTT News linked above as "yet to fully recover..." in reference to Finland:

 

"However, the index measuring resource shortage rose to 35.4 from 31.0, signaling that economic activity is yet to fully recover from the impact of coronavirus pandemic and related restrictions."

 

My conclusions hold, and are supported by the citations that I have presented.

 

Where are your citations which prove me wrong? If you want to link to graphs, then explain why you apparently think that your links disprove my fully referenced claims. Perhaps it would be judicious for you to reconsider your stance.

 

Again, and hopefully for the last time, of the three countries, only Sweden has returned to pre-pandemic economic levels.

 

 

 

[Advocatus Diaboli]

In post #901:

 

"Quote from RTT News linked above as "yet to fully recover..." in reference to Finland"

 

should be: "Quote from RTT News linked above as "yet to fully recover..." in reference to Norway"

[Daniel Cooper]

For 2020 (compared to 2019), Norway's GPD declined a lot less than Finland's, and Finland's GDP declined a tiny bit less than Sweden's. The data for 2021 is too incomplete to do any fair comparison.

 

GDP growth (annual %) - Sweden, Norway, Finland

https://data.worldba...O-FI&start=2008

 

GDP (constant 2010 US$) - Sweden, Norway, Finland
https://data.worldba...O-FI&start=2008

 

Once again, North Sea Crude accounts for 22% of Norway's GDP. Oil makes up virtually none of Sweden's GDP. Crude oil sales have been nearly unchanged during the pandemic, and production almost completely unaffected. Of course Norway's GDP declined less than Sweden's during the pandemic, having nothing to do with the the pandemic response. North Sea crude oil sales making up such a large percentage of Norway's GDP gives it a natural buffer to externalities like these.

[Florin]

Once again, North Sea Crude accounts for 22% of Norway's GDP. Oil makes up virtually none of Sweden's GDP. Crude oil sales have been nearly unchanged during the pandemic, and production almost completely unaffected. Of course Norway's GDP declined less than Sweden's during the pandemic, having nothing to do with the the pandemic response. North Sea crude oil sales making up such a large percentage of Norway's GDP gives it a natural buffer to externalities like these.

 

Oil prices cratered in 2020. Unless you have data showing otherwise, I'm going to assume that the price Norway was getting for its crude also plummeted.

 

Also, Finland's decline is almost identical to Sweden's.

Again, and hopefully for the last time, of the three countries, only Sweden has returned to pre-pandemic economic levels.

 

Show me the GDP data.

Edited by Florin, 11 August 2021 - 06:55 PM.

[Daniel Cooper]

Finland's decline is almost identical to Sweden's.

 

 

And Finland like Sweden does not have the crude oil production that makes up almost a quarter of Norway's GDP.

 

Sweden and Finland have similar economies which are both dissimilar to Norway's.  Norway is the outlier with this massive income from oil. Are you surprised that both Sweden and Finland declined when the entire world economy declined while Norway with this income from a very stable sector declined less? What exactly is it about this you find remarkable?

 

You seem to want to equate this as being driven by covid response when it's clearly driven by massive structural differences in the economies.

 

Look at the graphs *before* covid? Notice anything? Norway's GDP is more stable even before the pandemic. Having damned near a quarter of your GDP from oil will do that.

 

 

Edited by Daniel Cooper, 11 August 2021 - 07:02 PM.

[Advocatus Diaboli]

Florin writes, in post #904: "Show me the GDP data."

 

The second quarter GDP data, which you are apparently so fixated on, will show you what the second quarter GDP data are (surprise, surprise). The relevant metric is whether or not the economies of Finland and Norway have recovered to pre-pandemic economic levels, as the Swedish economy has. My citations, which you have studiously ignored without commenting on, say that Finland and Norway have not recovered to pre-pandemic economic levels.

 

In addition, even if Finland and Norway growth rates for quarterly-change-from-previous-month GDP's or change-over-same-quarter-previous-year GDP's, are up 10%, or 20%, or whatever, in Q2-21, those data will not tell you if the economies have recovered to pre-pandemic levels. My sources do tell you (they haven't).

 

Prove that my sources are wrong.

Edited by Advocatus Diaboli, 11 August 2021 - 09:49 PM.

[Florin]

Prove that my sources are wrong.

 

Prove your sources are right with complete GDP data for Finland and Norway.

[Advocatus Diaboli]

Florin writes: "Prove your sources are right with complete GDP data for Finland and Norway."

 

Sorry, it doesn't work that way. Pay close attention.

 

I make claims and supply citations that support my claims.

 

You then essentially assert that my claims aren't true, without citation. 

 

You have made an assertion without providing evidence to back up your assertion.

 

So, once more, provide me evidence that the sources I used to back up my claim are not "right".

 

[Florin]

So, once more, provide me evidence that the sources I used to back up my claim are not "right".

 

My sources say your sources are wrong. Prove my claim is not "right."

Edited by Florin, 12 August 2021 - 06:46 PM.

[Florin]

And Finland like Sweden does not have the crude oil production that makes up almost a quarter of Norway's GDP.
 
Sweden and Finland have similar economies which are both dissimilar to Norway's.  Norway is the outlier with this massive income from oil. Are you surprised that both Sweden and Finland declined when the entire world economy declined while Norway with this income from a very stable sector declined less? What exactly is it about this you find remarkable?
 
You seem to want to equate this as being driven by covid response when it's clearly driven by massive structural differences in the economies.
 
Look at the graphs *before* covid? Notice anything? Norway's GDP is more stable even before the pandemic. Having damned near a quarter of your GDP from oil will do that.

Oil prices cratered in 2020. Unless you have data showing otherwise, I'm going to assume that the price Norway was getting for its crude also plummeted.

[Advocatus Diaboli]

Re: post #909:

.

 

Re post #909:

 

Your sources deal with GDP changes, they don't specify whether or not Norway and Finland have recovered to pre-pandemic economic levels. My sources say Finland and Norway have not recovered. And, as of yet, you have failed to provide evidence that they have. I'm still waiting.

 

 

"What do the graphs you link to have to do with the fact that Sweden has already attained pre-pandemic economic levels, Finland is not expected to return to pre-pandemic economic levels until 2022 and Norway's economy has yet to fully recover to pre-pandemic levels, as of 7/22/2021?."

[Advocatus Diaboli]

.

 

Re posts #904 and #910:

 

Florin writes:

 

"Oil prices cratered in 2020. Unless you have data showing otherwise, I'm going to assume that the price Norway was getting for its crude also plummeted."

 

Here's a novel idea, Florin--Why don't you stop assuming things, and start presenting citations that affirm your claims? Too hard for you? 

[Florin]

Here's a novel idea, Advocatus Diaboli--Why don't you change your name to The Black Knight?

 

[Advocatus Diaboli]

Re:post #913

 

LOL!, I had the same video cued up for your next idiotic blunder. I should have posted it two days ago!

 

And now, to get you back to reality (quite likely an impossible task to expect from you):

 

Tell the forum what Norway crude oil sold for in 2020 (high, low), and when it reached bottom and hence what month it started to recover. And, why it was rising until a small downward blip (explain the blip) after which, explain why it continued its upward trajectory to the end of the year. Then, calculate the mean value of the price function over the entire year (just do a simple linear approximation from the bottom price backwards and forwards start of year to end of year as straight lines--no need to do piecewise-linear approximations where you would compute averages over the selected intervals from which you would derive data by which you would calculate your yearly estimate. Also, don't forget to give appropriate weights to any blocks of data that you want to compare--you do know how to do that, correct?). Then, after you have done that, compute what fraction that your calculation was of the expected value had the pandemic not occured. Then try to grasp (I know that will be hard for you) why your result doesn't affect Norway's economy to the extent that you apparently think it does. Finally, for the denouement, compose a haiku of apology to Daniel Cooper after which you should seek out an adherent of tamakeri who you would instruct to provide you with a memorable reason why you shouldn't try to play games, requiring intellect, with the big boys.

 

Is your use of "cratered" meant to mean the same as "plummeted"?

 

Why don't you stop assuming things, and start presenting citations that affirm your claims? Too hard for you? 

 

 

Edited by Advocatus Diaboli, 13 August 2021 - 12:17 AM.

[caliban]

moderation note:
this thread seems to have degenerated into uselessness