980 replies to this topic

[Daniel Cooper]

Donald will soon announce the covid19 vaccine, it will be bigly. Believe me. 

 

 

Do we need this sort of political commentary right now?

[Mind]

Donald will soon announce the covid19 vaccine, it will be bigly. Believe me. 

 

Vaccines don't work very well in the elderly - so maybe it is not silver bullet most people are hoping for.

[Daniel Cooper]

Vaccines don't work very well in the elderly - so maybe it is not silver bullet most people are hoping for.

 

True.  But, if you had a reasonably effective vaccine you could establish a level of herd immunity that would pretty dramatically slow the transmission rate which would benefit everyone, including the elderly.

[Mind]

Early on, many people noted China's military crackdown as a successful model to control the novel coronavirus pandemic. (There are some concerns that they are still covering things up and lying about the true death toll).

 

Three months later and there are riots in Wuhan. Let that sink in. People who are unarmed, relentlessly tracked, and could easily be arrested  - maybe executed - by the dictator Xi, don't care anymore. They are risking their lives to find some semblance of freedom and a future.

 

In Italy, videos are surfacing of hungry parents and kids talking about revolution. Normal Italian citizens openly speculating about overthrowing the government.

 

Widespread forced tracking and facemask use is not as spectacular as it originally looked in South Korea. As of today, their positive cases continue a slow steady climb and their CFR has crept up to 1.6%. Still a lot better than other countries, of course.

 

Singapore's positive cases are rising steadily as well.

 

Policy-makers must obviously be seeing this. They must know that authoritarian moves, disregarding economic concerns, and destroying individual rights are not long-term solutions. I don't think it is so much of a "material thing" (food and services), but a psychological thing. People need a future. People need connection. People desire freedom. Without those, they will get desperate. 

Edited by Mind, 30 March 2020 - 06:40 PM.

[Florin]

Widespread forced tracking and facemask use is not as spectacular as it originally looked in South Korea. As of today, their positive cases continue a slow steady climb and their CFR has crept up to 1.6%. Still a lot better than other countries, of course.

 

Active cases peaked on March 11 and continue to go down.

 

https://hgis.uw.edu/virus/

[Florin]

As for Hong Kong:

 

Even as a growing chorus in the U.S. and other countries calls for a quick end to sharp restrictions on civic life, Hong Kong’s message is clear: It will take remarkable persistence to control the coronavirus — a herculean effort by both governments and their citizens.

 

And:

 

Despite these measures, Yuen recently predicted that the virus will linger in Hong Kong for two years unless a vaccine is developed and administered widely. That is a long time to keep up the habits of constant washing and sanitizing and sampling, and residents may backslide, he said.

 

Covid-19’s resurgence in Hong Kong holds a lesson: Defeating it demands persistence

https://www.statnews...ds-persistence/

Edited by Florin, 30 March 2020 - 09:22 PM.

[BlueCloud]

In Italy, videos are surfacing of hungry parents and kids talking about revolution. Normal Italian citizens openly speculating about overthrowing the government.

 

Policy-makers must obviously be seeing this. They must know that authoritarian moves, disregarding economic concerns, and destroying individual rights are not long-term solutions. I don't think it is so much of a "material thing" (food and services), but a psychological thing. People need a future. People need connection. People desire freedom. Without those, they will get desperate. 

So, it’s a normal day in Italy, in other words :-))

Just like in France, normal french citizens have been openly speculating about overthrowing the government every day of the year since, what, 1789 ? 

 

Yes people need a future and connection, but they will get neither a future or a connection if they’re dead. Confinements are temporary measures, no one expects them to go on forever., they’re expected for 2 months maximum in most Europe.   Or we could just say «  the hell with it » and all keep acting the same way as before and contaminate each other 100 times even faster than today. 
There is no  economy when consumers and workers are spending most of their time in a hospital.

 

Maybe some media like to portray the lockdowns as an apocalyptic scifi movie , but , except for China where it’s really hardcore, it’s not like we’re in prison either.  People are still picking up fresh croissants and baguettes from the boulangerie , roller-blading and jogging ( you can , once a day, for one hour maximum, even though you are strongly advised not to do that everyday), still ordering useless crap on Amazon, etc..... 

Like the US, the E.U is going to inject massive amounts into the  economy. 

But all this is nothing of course, if we can’t find effective treatments and/or vaccines.

 

and lastly, for a bit of humour, this hilarious video compilation of italian mayors getting into a fit about people not respecting the confinement ;-)

https://www.youtube....h?v=tx5H1IV2By0

 

 

Edited by BlueCloud, 30 March 2020 - 10:24 PM.

[Mind]

So, it’s a normal day in Italy, in other words :-))

Just like in France, normal french citizens have been openly speculating about overthrowing the government every day of the year since, what, 1789 ? 

 

Yes people need a future and connection, but they will get neither a future or a connection if they’re dead. Confinements are temporary measures, no one expects them to go on forever., they’re expected for 2 months maximum in most Europe.   Or we could just say «  the hell with it » and all keep acting the same way as before and contaminate each other 100 times even faster than today. 
There is no  economy when consumers and workers are spending most of their time in a hospital.

 

Maybe some media like to portray the lockdowns as an apocalyptic scifi movie , but , except for China where it’s really hardcore, it’s not like we’re in prison either.  People are still picking up fresh croissants and baguettes from the boulangerie , roller-blading and jogging ( you can , once a day, for one hour maximum, even though you are strongly advised not to do that everyday), still ordering useless crap on Amazon, etc..... 

Like the US, the E.U is going to inject massive amounts into the  economy. 

But all this is nothing of course, if we can’t find effective treatments and/or vaccines.

 

and lastly, for a bit of humour, this hilarious video compilation of italian mayors getting into a fit about people not respecting the confinement ;-)

https://www.youtube....h?v=tx5H1IV2By0

 

Thanks for the perspective.

[Florin]

Fauci: Mask-wearing recommendation under ‘very serious consideration’
https://www.politico...onavirus-157476
 

Fauci cautioned that while “we’re not there yet,” he said he believed the task force was “close to coming to some determination” soon on whether to expand the administration’s recommended mitigation measures to include masks.

“What the World Health Organization and the CDC have reaffirmed in the last few days is that they do not recommend the general public wear masks,” Adams told Fox News, explaining that the practice often leads to increased touching of one’s face and can produce a “false sense of security.”

And the clown show continues.

[Florin]

The WHO started out kinda sorta okay just a few months ago:
 

Given the costs and the uncertain effectiveness, face masks are conditionally recommended only in severe influenza epidemics or pandemics for the protection of the general population, but are recommended for symptomatic individuals at all times.

 
https://apps.who.int...1516839-eng.pdf
 
But some mysterious force (the CDC?) caused it to go into full-clown mode:
 

WHO officials do not recommend mask wearing for healthy members of the general population.

 
https://www.weforum....h-who-briefing/
 
Can the advocates of public mask-wearing like Gottlieb prevail and end this crazy clownery?
 
To be continued....

[Mind]

Fauci says no ending the lockdown until there are no new cases and no deaths from COVID-19.

 

I hope this was an erroneous statement. Otherwise it is time for Fauci to step aside. No new cases is a ridiculous standard that can never be met. I think he is not a big picture thinker....just getting too wrapped-up in statistics and models.

 

He is oblivious the economic, spiritual, social, and physical costs of months and years of quarantine. The term "prison planet" has never been more relevant.

[Florin]

Mask-wearing by the public (perhaps N95s in close quarters) combined with lots of testing is likely to be the only way to avoid these lockdowns.

Edited by Florin, 03 April 2020 - 08:02 PM.

[Daniel Cooper]

It's interesting here in the US watching all the "health experts" at the CDC and associated three letter agencies start to walk back their "Masks don't do anything" mantra, when anyone with any common sense would conclude that they offer some, albeit imperfect protection.  

 

 

Fauci says no ending the lockdown until there are no new cases and no deaths from COVID-19.

 

I hope this was an erroneous statement. Otherwise it is time for Fauci to step aside. No new cases is a ridiculous standard that can never be met. I think he is not a big picture thinker....just getting too wrapped-up in statistics and models.

 

He is oblivious the economic, spiritual, social, and physical costs of months and years of quarantine. The term "prison planet" has never been more relevant.

 

 

We'll be locked down for 6 months if that is the standard. At that point we'll have people dying of starvation rather than covid 19.

[Florin]

Masks vs tests vs deaths

 

Mask-wearing countries/regions: Hong Kong, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and recently Czech Republic and Slovenia

 

Total tests performed per million people
https://ourworldinda...KOR TWN GBR USA

 

Total confirmed deaths per million people
https://ourworldinda...TWN GBR USA SGP

Edited by Florin, 03 April 2020 - 11:48 PM.

[BlueCloud]

Germany, Italy and France have already announced tentative dates for ending the lock-downs ( 19 April from Germany, "sometime in may" for Italy and France ). But it will very be gradual, and various measures will be in place even after for many months, like mandatory mask wearing ( once they become readily available for the population) ,  increased spacing of passengers in public transports, in restaurants, etc..

Edited by BlueCloud, 06 April 2020 - 05:31 PM.

[Florin]

How long are you willing to allow a full lockdown of the the United States to last to save 2 million people?

Edited by Florin, 02 May 2020 - 05:09 AM.

[gamesguru]

Regardless whether lockdowns are officially "lifted", people may still be afraid to go out.

 

Based on traffic data in Beijing, there is still significant lockdown or fear.  And so the economy is basically re-inventing itself.

[Florin]

Regardless whether lockdowns are officially "lifted", people may still be afraid to go out.

 

Based on traffic data in Beijing, there is still significant lockdown or fear.  And so the economy is basically re-inventing itself.

 

The traffic data isn't that significantly different compared to 2019. People are going to work and returning home just as they did in 2019 but sometimes skipping going out for lunch and staying home on the weekend. That's nothing like a full lockdown.

Edited by Florin, 02 May 2020 - 06:30 AM.

[gamesguru]

sometimes skipping going out for lunch and staying home on the weekend

 

They're always skipping lunch and they're skipping the Friday and Saturday out.

 

If it's not a formal lock-down or fear, it's the inconvenience of a mask or the economic hit things have taken.

 

I don't think most Americans would consider it a true return to normal if bars and dine ins were still closed, or people were otherwise afraid or unable to afford them.

[Florin]

They're always skipping lunch and they're skipping the Friday and Saturday out.
 
If it's not a formal lock-down or fear, it's the inconvenience of a mask or the economic hit things have taken.
 
I don't think most Americans would consider it a true return to normal if bars and dine ins were still closed, or people were otherwise afraid or unable to afford them.

 
They're not completely skipping going out though; it's about 75% less often most of the time, not 100%. And most people seem to have returned to work. So, it's a hell of a lot better than a full, mandatory lockdown.

Edited by Florin, 02 May 2020 - 06:00 PM.

[gamesguru]

 They're not completely skipping going out though; it's about 75% less often most of the time, not 100%. And most people seem to have returned to work. So, it's a hell of a lot better than a full, mandatory lockdown.

 

Yes well i doubt the US wants to maintain that even for a few years.

 

The question was how far they are willing to go to save 2 million lives.  We'll see.

[Florin]

If everyone was required to wear masks and face shields, it might be possible that almost everything could be reopened almost immediately.

 

Moving Personal Protective Equipment Into the Community

https://jamanetwork....article/2765525

 

...there is growing recognition that containment strategies that rely on testing will be inadequate because the necessary testing capacity may not be available for weeks to months, and in the US the ability to track, trace, and quarantine is unclear. In addition, countries where testing was not limited and containment was achieved, eg, Singapore, have seen substantial second waves of infection and mandated extreme distancing interventions that the US and other countries are trying to scale back.

 

...Could a simple and affordable face shield, if universally adopted, provide enough added protection when added to testing, contact tracing, and hand hygiene to reduce transmissibility below a critical threshold?

 

But just a few idiots can ruin it for everyone.

 

Ohio governor says his face mask order went 'too far'

https://abcnews.go.c...ory?id=70481052

 

Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine said Sunday that a statewide order mandating face masks be worn in stores went "too far."

 

"It became clear to me that that was just a bridge too far. People were not going to accept the government telling them what to do," he said on ABC's “This Week."

Edited by Florin, 03 May 2020 - 08:16 PM.

[Florin]

If everyone was required to wear masks and face shields, it might be possible that almost everything could be reopened almost immediately.

 

Moving Personal Protective Equipment Into the Community

https://jamanetwork....article/2765525

 

A flimsy, cloth mask isn't enough you say? No problem! Just DIY an N95-equivalent.

Edited by Florin, 07 May 2020 - 06:50 PM.

[gamesguru]

If everyone was required to wear masks and face shields, it might be possible that almost everything could be reopened almost immediately.

 

Ohio governor says his face mask order went 'too far'

 

It's not the fact that the cloth mask is "too much work" or anything rational like that.. it's just the simple idea of government restriction like you said.  In the mind of a Trump conservative, every imposed restriction is a deep-seated conspiracy against the American people.  That's why you see movies like the "Plandmic", and have all these press releases about antibody tests of under 90% specificity.

 

While South Korea got its mess under control months ago, we're busy turning it into a political issue and peddling conspiracy theories.  America has become 'Murica.

 

It's a shame man I used to really love this forum, too.  But these days it consists mostly of people who've fallen off the rocker and can't interpret studies skeptically.

 

No coincidence half the people here have experimented with novel neuropeptides and the latest lab synthases from China

[Daniel Cooper]

It's not the fact that the cloth mask is "too much work" or anything rational like that.. it's just the simple idea of government restriction like you said.  In the mind of a Trump conservative, every imposed restriction is a deep-seated conspiracy against the American people.  That's why you see movies like the "Plandmic", and have all these press releases about antibody tests of under 90% specificity.

 

While South Korea got its mess under control months ago, we're busy turning it into a political issue and peddling conspiracy theories.  America has become 'Murica.

 

It's a shame man I used to really love this forum, too.  But these days it consists mostly of people who've fallen off the rocker and can't interpret studies skeptically.

 

No coincidence half the people here have experimented with novel neuropeptides and the latest lab synthases from China

 

I really think we'd be better off to check the political commentary at the door.

[Daniel Cooper]

It's not the fact that the cloth mask is "too much work" or anything rational like that.. it's just the simple idea of government restriction like you said.  In the mind of a Trump conservative, every imposed restriction is a deep-seated conspiracy against the American people.  That's why you see movies like the "Plandmic", and have all these press releases about antibody tests of under 90% specificity.
 
While South Korea got its mess under control months ago, we're busy turning it into a political issue and peddling conspiracy theories.  America has become 'Murica.
 
It's a shame man I used to really love this forum, too.  But these days it consists mostly of people who've fallen off the rocker and can't interpret studies skeptically.
 
No coincidence half the people here have experimented with novel neuropeptides and the latest lab synthases from China

 
Ok fine, let's discuss your "theory" that the difference between the US response and the rest of the world is Trump and "Trump Conservatives" being too stupid to take reasonable precautions.
 
Let's introduce some data, shall we .....
 

 

That's covid-19 data as of today sorted by "Deaths per Million".

 

Do you notice anything?  Let's throw out the countries with populations too small to be a good sample.  So, looking at Belgium, Spain, Italy, UK, France, Sweden, and Ireland.  All in worse case than the US in terms of deaths per million population.  In the case of the UK, Italy and Spain, roughly twice as bad off.

 

Now, I must have missed the news story where Trump was elected to the top leadership post in those countries, and the fact that they are hotbeds of "Trump Conservatives".  And who knew that the Netherlands has a higher percentage of Trump fanatics than the US.  The things you learn.

 

Or perhaps there are other issues in play here. Call me crazy, but I think that may be the case.

 

Yes, South Korea has done much better than the US.  Personally, I would put that down to two major causes:

 

1.) That part of Asia has a culture of mask wearing going back a number of decades now.  I've walked down the streets of Shenzhen and Seoul.  It was common to see a high percentage of people walking down the streets wearing medical masks years before anyone uttered the name "covid".

 

2.) South Korea (and Taiwan) both ignored China's protestations that they had see no cases of human to human transmission (which was a lie) in January and started immediately locking things down at that early date.

 

 Now, let's please get out of the political weeds here.  

[Florin]

It's not the fact that the cloth mask is "too much work" or anything rational like that.. it's just the simple idea of government restriction like you said.  In the mind of a Trump conservative, every imposed restriction is a deep-seated conspiracy against the American people.

 

Stupidity is a worldwide phenomena; just look at the WHO (still doesn't recommend mask wearing) or almost any other country in the world (no mandatory mask wearing, even in most of gov-worshipping Europe).

[gamesguru]

Stupidity is a worldwide phenomena; just look at the WHO (still doesn't recommend mask wearing) or almost any other country in the world (no mandatory mask wearing, even in most of gov-worshipping Europe).

 

Sure it's stupid for authorities not to recommend masks, but that's not my point.

 

Are these civilian protests a worldwide thing?  Those ones that totally obey social distancing guidelines.  You're seeing more in US and Brazil than Korea—granted larger countries tend to be harder to govern, but I suspect the whole attitude of "sacrificing individual liberties for the perceived common good" is more common in the East.

 

 

That's covid-19 data as of today sorted by "Deaths per Million".

So, looking at Belgium, Spain, Italy, UK, France, Sweden, and Ireland.  All in worse case than the US in terms of deaths per million population.  In the case of the UK, Italy and Spain, roughly twice as bad off.

Now, I must have missed the news story where Trump was elected to the top leadership post in those countries.

 

Or perhaps there are other issues in play here.

 

Of the mentioned countries, only the UK has a still steadily climbing death toll.  America is earlier in the epidemic, and luckily so.  Summer is coming.  Only 2.6% of influenza infections occur between May and October.  Brazil and Australia should become new hotspots in the Southern hemisphere

 

But US is still very much peaking in daily deaths.  I think we hit 2700 or 2800 one day in late April, and now we're still hovering around ~2200 it feels like I predicted we would be back to 1500 by this point but that was even optimistic.  I expect it will drop off, gradually.  But if you look at where Italy was around April 15th, a week after they peaked, you'll see they added another 30-40% of deaths since.  So in 4-6 weeks we'll be closer to 350-400 deaths per million, just like the UK and Italy.  Italy I'm going to cut some slack, because they were the first and underestimated the beast.  UK and Sweden are just being dumb.  Spain is a bit less proactive than France.  Germany ironically I think luck is a big factor for them, but their leadership response is still quite good and not to be criticized heavily.

 

The other thing is.. I never argued we were worse "because of our higher death toll" or anything like that.

First that would require such a level of ignorance or deliberate deceit as to not look at the world-o-meters page and see, oh shit, yeah we're actually doing okay still on a per capital death basis, probly shouldn't use that as a talking point.

Second it assumes a linear mapping of "death per capita" to "a leader's competence".  That's like saying someone's wealth is an measure of how hard they worked.  By that logic, Greenland and Vietnam are infinitely superior to the rest of the world.. they have had 0 deaths.

 

There are potentially dozens of factors I'm not aware of—besides the government response—that influence the outcome.. population density, cultural factors, climate.  It's just as possible we were on target to have very few deaths and Trump made it worse, as it is that he's doing a good job making a previous bad situation good.

 

So the real thing to look at isn't death count.  It's the federal response.  It's the leadership, the confident leadership and the poise to see the American people through this uncertain situation.  Or it's the lack of all that.  That's what really scares me, what really breaks my heart.  It's like America is growing up without a father figure right now, and instead of signing the New Deal we're opting for the Great Leap Forward.

[Daniel Cooper]

So the real thing to look at isn't death count.  It's the federal response.  It's the leadership, the confident leadership and the poise to see the American people through this uncertain situation.  Or it's the lack of all that.  That's what really scares me, what really breaks my heart.  It's like America is growing up without a father figure right now, and instead of signing the New Deal we're opting for the Great Leap Forward.

 

See, that's the difference between you and I.  I have never looked toward anyone in government to be a "father figure" and I've been grown up quite a long time now thank you.  Government fulfills a necessary function to do things that people can not easily do either individually or through voluntary collective action. It is not your parent. The government can not be a father figure without putting you in the position of a child.

 

And how do you figure we're doing a Great Leap Forward?  Isn't your complaint that the Trump administration has no plan, that they are doing nothing?  The Great Leap Forward was a five year plan to restructure Chinese society completely from top to bottom.  That seems to be the opposite of what he's done, and in fact closer to what you seem to want.

 

Instead of New Deals and Great Leaps Forward, I propose that we instead try to figure out a way of defeating the virus, no matter how mundane and uninspiring that might be.  I mean, I'm sure we'd all enjoy nothing more than a rousing political speech right now, but let me suggest that a vaccine would be more useful.

 

You can start by making sure the FDA understands this is an actual emergency and that time spent contemplating their navel costs lives.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[gamesguru]

See, that's the difference between you and I.  I have never looked toward anyone in government to be a "father figure" and I've been grown up quite a long time now thank you.  Government fulfills a necessary function to do things that people can not easily do either individually or through voluntary collective action. It is not your parent. The government can not be a father figure without putting you in the position of a child.

 

And how do you figure we're doing a Great Leap Forward?  Isn't your complaint that the Trump administration has no plan, that they are doing nothing?  The Great Leap Forward was a five year plan to restructure Chinese society completely from top to bottom.  That seems to be the opposite of what he's done, and in fact closer to what you seem to want.

 

Instead of New Deals and Great Leaps Forward, I propose that we instead try to figure out a way of defeating the virus, no matter how mundane and uninspiring that might be.  I mean, I'm sure we'd all enjoy nothing more than a rousing political speech right now, but let me suggest that a vaccine would be more useful.

 

You can start by making sure the FDA understands this is an actual emergency and that time spent contemplating their navel costs lives.

 

If you prefer a babbling narcissist loon (Trump) over a well-spoken woman of few words and a former nuclear scientist (Angela Merkel), then just vote for him.  If you're watching his daily briefings without mounting horror frankly, vote for him in November.  But IIRC you conceded in an earlier post how he was "an ass"?  I'm frankly very concerned with the problem of getting competent, level-headed men and women into positions of power.

 

He's done nothing to fight the pandemic or help the middle class.  But deals have been signed behind closed doors.  Feds Injected $1.5 Trillion in March to the stock market (aka Billionaires), weeks before the CARES act was approved.  The CARES act was also a joke, if you look at how the money got divvied up, it may as well have been called the WHOCARES act with how the generous bailouts for big business were juxtaposed against local governments, volunteers, and small businesses being given the middle finger.  They're doing precisely what I hoped the poor would do, they're using the pandemic as an excuse to further their agenda and trample on the weak.  It is a uniquely Republican trait to be so averse to helping people, sometimes even when they are in legitimate need.  That's why small business will barely survive here.  That's why we refuse to pause mortgage payments.  It's greed coming down from the top.

 

Do you really think we here are going to come up with a vaccine?  Our job is more likely to provide commentary to scientific studies as they emerge, and lighten the mood somewhat.

 

Are you talking about how they botched testing all of February with their "new and improved" test when Germany had an approved reagent out that China had been long using?  Otherwise, I don't understand what the FDA has to do with it?

 

Part of the problem is it's "not" an emergency anymore.  I think I heard President Trump announce the pandemic was over?  Yeah, why worry about a vaccine people he was right this is just going away in April.  And totally. not. coming. back. in. the. Fall.