980 replies to this topic

[gamesguru]

Interesting data point showing the need beyond masks.  Israel has required them since April, but experienced a tremendous surge in hospital capacity in early June when the economy and schools were re-opened.

 

Do not be led astray by the naivety of those suggesting masks alone in the West will suffice.

[Florin]

Compliance sucked in Israel. But don't worry; compliance will increase with more beatings from the virus, arrests, and fines.

[gamesguru]

Remains doubtful, compliance could as well decrease.  Ironically, the information age seems to have bred the most morons

[gamesguru]

I should no doubt be wearing my mask in public, and I should also be wishing others to wear theirs, but I will likely not be swaying^[1] from the idea against which you so egregiously opined, the idea that more may need to be done in spite of this—closing schools, bars, large events, and asking people to limit interactions—until a vaccine is in the works.

[Florin]

The need for social distancing depends on the situation. It might be needed indoors and if everyone is only wearing cloth masks, but if there's poor ventilation and everyone's wearing cloth masks and they're talking a lot, even keeping a 6-foot distance might not be enough. If outdoors or everyone is wearing respirators, it wouldn't be needed. If clusters of cases arises at the places you mentioned, I'm not against shutting them down at least temporarily. However, I'm not sure if it's a good idea to keep all schools closed (due to Taiwan's experience and the fact that it's harder for children to become infected) or ban all large outdoor gatherings (the protests didn't seem to spike cases much and if everyone is wearing a mask, it seems very low risk since there'd be a huge amount of ventilation). It's all about context.

Edited by Florin, 23 July 2020 - 04:15 AM.

[geo12the]

I've been listening to the This week in Virology (TWIV) podcasts which are very informative.Their view on testing is very enlightening and different from the status quo. The current convention wisdom on testing is that tests must be highly accurate.  But on TWIV they make the point that technology currently exists to make inexpensive tests for around $1 USD each. These would be paper strip tests similar to ones currently on the market for a range of conditions. They would detect COIVID antigens and would be about 85% accurate (not stringent enough for FDA guidelines). But they would be highly accurate at detecting individuals with high viral loads who are at much greater risk of spreading the virus. They suggested these tests could be mass produced and made available to the public. School children would take a test every morning and if positive stay home. If everyone took these tests on a regular basis and stayed home if the test is positive it would be a huge step in halting the spread of the virus. 

Edited by geo12the, 23 July 2020 - 02:56 PM.

[Heisok]

Hi geo12the,

 

I do not know if what they proposed is accurate enough. It could be a false sense of security. What could happen within a school district of around 40,000 students who went back to on campus education based on the possibility. What about the level of false negatives?

 

Is the antigen test able to predict current viral load? Could that give too many false positives for active infections?

 

 

 

[Daniel Cooper]

Hi geo12the,

 

I do not know if what they proposed is accurate enough. It could be a false sense of security. What could happen within a school district of around 40,000 students who went back to on campus education based on the possibility. What about the level of false negatives?

 

Is the antigen test able to predict current viral load? Could that give too many false positives for active infections?

 

 

I think their angle is that if you keep a high percentage of infected people home that today would otherwise be mingling with the public, then you bring the R0 down to something less that 1, at which point the thing just eventually withers and dies out.  You don't need anything close to 100% accuracy for that strategy, but you do need it to be widely deployed (as close to 100% as you can get).

 

If we had a cheap 85% accurate test that most people took every day and self quarantined if they came up positive, this pandemic would essentially be over in the space of a month or so.

[Mind]

Sweden took a balanced approach, hardly any mandates, including masks. They are doing fine as of late. Schools are open. Businesses are open. The virus got into the nursing home community and elevated the death rate in Sweden, otherwise it would be much lower.

 

How long before more countries take Sweden's approach? As a policy measure it sure beats living in constant fear and turning a segment of the population into health fascists, constantly and eagerly searching-out and ratting-out their neighbors for not following every new health directive.

[gamesguru]

I would definitely be open to trying a cheaper but less accurate test.  Seems getting a test is a nightmare still.

 

It's curious how the antibody is easier to detect than the mRNA or any virus marker.

[Florin]

Sweden's approach is still a disaster, because it could've done a lot better if everyone wore masks. And no, Sweden couldn't have prevented nursing home deaths, because the policy was (and still is, as far as I know) not to wear masks.

[gamesguru]

Sweden's approach is absolutely insufferable.  Top 10 in terms of per capita deaths, top 5 if you knock out Andorra and San Marino (tiny city nations), hospitals at surge capacity, a political feud and people living in fear and belligerence.

 

The idea they can continuously "shield the vulnerable" will prove equally absurd in the Fall.  Watch for them to take a more balanced approached out of pure necessity, inscrutably so.

[Dorian Grey]

Interesting article from CNN about countries that "did it right" (Hong Kong, Australia, Japan, Israel), only to see new surges appear swiftly upon any easing of restrictions.  

 

https://www.cnn.com/...intl/index.html

 

America's Covid response is flawed. But even the gold standard nations are seeing big outbreaks

 

Hard to fault anyone if no one seems to have gotten it right. 

 

High time we all stopped pointing fingers & get to work on an effective outpatient therapy to keep people out of the hospitals.  Governments should be mailing Vitamin-D & low dose zinc to every household.  Doctors should be free to prescribe "right to try" medications, even if they haven't passed the dreadfully flawed double blind placebo controlled studies.  

 

Insanity is repeating the same thing over & over and expecting different results.  Time for something completely different!  

[Florin]

The only "big" outbreak is happening in Israel, after a lot of people stopped wearing masks. The other countries (including the Czech Republic) and territories are doing just fine, although they need to tighten mask compliance a bit. If Australia doesn't mandate masks, cases and deaths will not stop increasing and it will continue to idiotically do lockdowns in response.

 

Governments should start handing out respirators to everyone like South Korea did. That's the only thing that's has the best chance of ending this pandemic and preventing lab accidents or bioterrorists from completely wiping out humanity.

 

https://ourworldinda...&pickerSort=asc

https://www.ynetnews...ticle/ByItAET3L

https://nssac.bii.vi...d-19/dashboard/

Edited by Florin, 25 July 2020 - 12:44 AM.

[pamojja]

Sweden's approach is absolutely insufferable. Top 10 in terms of per capita deaths, top 5 if you knock out Andorra and San Marino (tiny city nations), hospitals at surge capacity, a political feud and people living in fear and belligerence.

 

How so? They've been doing better compared even to countries with the worst lockdowns, like Italy and Spain. How up to 10 hospitalizations could put hospitals still at surge capacity? They seem to do great:

 

 Screenshot_2020-07-25 COVID-19 pandemic in Sweden - Wikipedia(1).png   264.3KB   0 downloads

 

 Screenshot_2020-07-25 COVID-19 pandemic in Sweden - Wikipedia.png   263.2KB   1 downloads

 

Double-checked with worldometer:

 

 Screenshot_2020-07-25 Sweden Coronavirus 78,997 Cases and 5,697 Deaths - Worldometer.png   33.13KB   1 downloads

[gamesguru]

Compare them to their geographical and demographic neighbors.  Spain and France are much denser populated than Sweden or Norway.

 

Sweden has implemented measures (ban events over 50 people, recommend work from home, no school for upperclassmen).. is it your belief if they lapsed wholly back into complacency, as if NYC lapsed back, they would regardlessly experience a 2nd wave or that the downward trend would continue?  It is my belief the walls hold back the siege, not that the siege has ended.  Take your walls down at your own peril

[pamojja]

 if they lapsed wholly back into complacency, as if NYC lapsed back, they would regardlessly experience a 2nd wave or that the downward trend would continue?

 

If you look at the graphs of the 1918 Spanish flu in this article: https://www.national...ic-coronavirus/

 

..one can see that those cities with the highest first spike rarely had anything coming close during the second wave. While those with a much milder wave first, also the second rose for many to equal levels agaom. Therefore I think New York, Lombardy, Spain, Paris, England and Sweden will be much saver with the next season. Than for example my country, which didn't experienced anything, yet.
 

[geo12the]

Hi geo12the,

 

I do not know if what they proposed is accurate enough. It could be a false sense of security. What could happen within a school district of around 40,000 students who went back to on campus education based on the possibility. What about the level of false negatives?

 

Is the antigen test able to predict current viral load? Could that give too many false positives for active infections?

 

The idea is that in people who are infected there some are producing more virus than others and are thus are much more likely to infect others. I think the "super spreader" phenomenon does not receive enough attention. There are several studies that suggest that a small number of infected people are responsible for spreading the virus. There probably are some folks who churn out loads of virus for whatever reason.  False negatives would more likely be infected people with low viral loads who are less likely to infect others. People with high viral loads would test  positive. The idea is that the antigen test would be predictive of viral load. 

Edited by geo12the, 25 July 2020 - 06:34 PM.

[gamesguru]

If you look at the graphs of the 1918 Spanish flu ..one can see that those cities with the highest first spike rarely had anything coming close during the second wave.

 

Likely they were just more libertarian communities such as San Fransisco and Philadelphia who learned their lesson in the first wave and opted to close schools (unlike St. Louis).  I doubt this was the virus running its course into herd immunity.. kindly read about H1N1pd1918 went extinct due to error catastrophe and not herd immunity

 

The more stubborn, conservative communities like St. Louis never experience a major Spring wave (likely due to warmer climate and lesser population density), and therefore they do not take the threat seriously in the Fall and get hammered.

[Daniel Cooper]

Likely they were just more libertarian communities such as San Fransisco and Philadelphia who learned their lesson in the first wave and opted to close schools (unlike St. Louis).  I doubt this was the virus running its course into herd immunity.. kindly read about H1N1pd1918 went extinct due to error catastrophe and not herd immunity

 

The more stubborn, conservative communities like St. Louis never experience a major Spring wave (likely due to warmer climate and lesser population density), and therefore they do not take the threat seriously in the Fall and get hammered.

 

If you'd care to learn something about the 1918 pandemic I'd encourage you to read the Wikipedia article which last time I checked was pretty decent.

 

The history of that pandemic is that it occurred in two major waves which corresponded to what is believed to have been two distinct genetic variants.

 

The first wave/variant was apparently much less lethal than the second.  The first wave progressed in terms of geography in a very hit and miss fashion.  Some towns were hit fairly hard in the first wave, while nearby towns were virtually left unscathed and had very few infected.

 

Those towns that missed the first wave thought they had dodged a bullet.  But it turns out in many cases they were the unlucky ones.  For the first variant was considerably less lethal but it did give considerable immunity to both 1918 variants.  Many towns that were skipped by the first wave were devastated by the second, while towns that had seen a substantial numbers of infected but relatively few deaths in the first wave in many cases had almost no deaths in the second wave.  The first and milder form of the 1918 virus had served as a crude vaccination.

 

 

 

 

[gamesguru]

The reason the second wave was worse was, like COVID, the virus broke out of the gates late in the Spring season.  I doubt there was an increased virility, but just an increased presence.  Probably only a few people got sick in the Spring of 1918, whereas tons fell ill in the Fall, but the H1N1pd1918 virus had roughly the same level of lethality throughout.

 

Therefore the first complete flu season it had to its advantage was the Fall.  It helped that some towns started pushing the narrative the disease was gone in the Summer, and that many school districts opened as a result.

 

tl;dr seasonal and cultural factors likely explain the major Fall wave, not malevolent viral evolution

[hype_wagon]

Sweden's approach is absolutely insufferable.

 

How so? They've been doing better compared even to countries with the worst lockdowns, like Italy and Spain.

 

Compare them to their geographical and demographic neighbors

 

A point we thankfully all can agree on, at one point or another

 

 

"After more than 3 months of no meetings of 10 or more people, professional rugby has finally started back up again in New Zealand. 43,000 spectators, no need for physical distancing if there’s no cases in the whole country! Kia kaha - stay strong"

What an absolute mockery the US & UK must be to the rest of the world.

 

Don't you think that's a bit of an unfair comparison?  New Zealand has a total population of 4.9 million.  That's a relatively small state in the US, and it's an island. They don't have the extensive commercial ties and travel with China that the US and most of Europe has.

[Daniel Cooper]

At the end of the day what matters is if it actually works. Not the silly tribal political wars. I haven't yer seen any real evidence that it helps very much. 

 

I agree entirely, and that is the point of that article.

 

When it comes to HCQ I've seen pro evidence and I've seen con evidence.  Much like remdesivir and masking for that matter.  All you can do is look at as much of the evidence as possible and make your decision based on a "preponderance of the evidence" since there's none of these things that have evidence unequivocally one way or the other.

 

Now, according to that Op Ed, "Dr. Harvey A. Rish, MD, PHD , Professor OF Epidemiology, Yale School of Public Health" has looked at the evidence and decided that HCQ probably works.  That's not an appeal to authority.  Dr. Rish could be wrong. His credentials don't make him right.   But it is to say that at least some informed people with a background in the subject are persuaded that HCQ is effective to some degree.  However, I'm certain that I could find someone with very good credentials that would take the opposite view.  But let's not pretend that only "kooks" think this stuff works.

 

Do I think HCQ works?  Yeah probably to some extent.  But if in a year I find out that I'm wrong I won't be terribly surprised.

[albedo]

I agree entirely, and that is the point of that article.

 

When it comes to HCQ I've seen pro evidence and I've seen con evidence.  Much like remdesivir and masking for that matter.  All you can do is look at as much of the evidence as possible and make your decision based on a "preponderance of the evidence" since there's none of these things that have evidence unequivocally one way or the other.

 

Now, according to that Op Ed, "Dr. Harvey A. Rish, MD, PHD , Professor OF Epidemiology, Yale School of Public Health" has looked at the evidence and decided that HCQ probably works.  That's not an appeal to authority.  Dr. Rish could be wrong. His credentials don't make him right.   But it is to say that at least some informed people with a background in the subject are persuaded that HCQ is effective to some degree.  However, I'm certain that I could find someone with very good credentials that would take the opposite view.  But let's not pretend that only "kooks" think this stuff works.

 

Do I think HCQ works?  Yeah probably to some extent.  But if in a year I find out that I'm wrong I won't be terribly surprised.

 

I very much stand with you on the full post. Maybe with the distinction that, while evidence for masks also suffer some degree of not being unequivocally determined, they have a long historic of usage during human pandemics, in different geographies and cultures and maybe less, non zero though, side effects and issues with proper usage.

[hype_wagon]

Vietnam recently evacuated 80,000 tourists and suspended tourism in response to 3 new coronavirus cases.  Three.

 

Vietnam is a country of 97 million residents, which has taken the pandemic seriously since early January when China was still lying.  They have less than 500 total reported cases at the time of writing this, and no one has died there.  This degree of excellency and competency is scarcely imaginably by US officials.

[gamesguru]

Florida just had two record breaking days in terms of reported deaths: 186 yesterday and 216 today.  According to Fauci this is because the virus is working its way through the generational gap^[1], slowly sowing seeds in July through the Millennials into the Boomers, Silents, and surviving Greats.

 

On a related note, Republican states have had a marked shift in their reported cases since the HHS took over handling the data from the CDC.  It's a lot harder to cover up deaths though, so I think that will be our next most accurate indicator. Shame the US is going the route of fudging data like China did in February, we really had an honest thing going.

 

[albedo]

I very much stand with you on the full post. Maybe with the distinction that, while evidence for masks also suffer some degree of not being unequivocally determined, they have a long historic of usage during human pandemics, in different geographies and cultures and maybe less, non zero though, side effects and issues with proper usage.

 

I (rightly) got a "need reference" for this post, probably related to my "long historic of usage". So I searched a bit hopefully to correct this and help.

 

While I tend to focus on scientific journals, this article in The Conversation is from an author (J. Alexander Navarro) who also included pointers to his own published research on the historic perspective (in ResearchGate):

https://theconversat...slackers-141687

https://www.research...exander-Navarro

 

I also log here two findings resp. in the Royal Society (not yet peer-reviewed) and The Lancet which provide an historic perspective and effectiveness review across different countries and cultures:

 

A history of the medical mask and the rise of throwaway culture

https://doi.org/10.1...6736(20)31207-1

 

Face masks and coverings for the general public: Behavioral knowledge, effectiveness of cloth coverings and public messaging

https://royalsociety...c-facemasks.pdf

 

 

[albedo]

For what it might possibly matter here is an approach to measuring and comparing different policies in facing the pandemic:

https://freopp.org/m...on-548664fca308

[albedo]

For what it might possibly matter here is an approach to measuring and comparing different policies in facing the pandemic:

https://freopp.org/m...on-548664fca308

 

Anyone out there knowing of any published comparison study?

 

[Mind]

The lockdown measures are now being downplayed as effective policy, for many reasons. https://www.nzherald...BLCITIMKOYXLRU/

 

1. The lockdowns already kill more young people than they save: Suicides and drug-overdoses far outpace coronavirus deaths among young people, according to the director of the CDC: https://www.nzherald...BLCITIMKOYXLRU/

 

2. The lockdowns disrupt economic activity and hundreds of millions of poor people around the world are now destitute and facing starvation: https://www.bloomber...s-latin-america