Just wondering how effective a COVID-19 vaccine would be? Or any coronavirus vaccine for that matter.
The vast majority of fatalities in the COVID-19 pandemic are the elderly. This is consistent in every country. In the worst hit country - Italy - as of today, over 95% of the victims are over 60. Of the remaining, less than 5% in younger age groups, the vast majority of those have underlying health conditions. The number of healthy people under 60 who succumb to COVID-19 is very small. Yes, there are some younger people who are surviving only with the help of ventilators, but the numbers are still very small in the whole scheme of things.
Could we make a coronavirus vaccine that is effective as the flu vaccine? Probably. Just remember, the flu vaccine has proven to be very ineffective in older populations. The elderly have old, damaged, and disregulated immune systems with hardly any naive T-cells and no thymus to make more.
Sure, it would be good to have younger people immunized against COVID-19 for herd immunity. It is a more deadly disease than the flu, and if a vaccine is all we have, then it makes obvious sense. However, what happens next winter when it starts ripping through elderly communities once again. Does the whole world crawl in a hole and go into lock-down for a few months?
There are many known versions of coronaviruses. This year's vaccine might not work for next year's coronavirus. Also ,recall the nursing home where a less deadly version of coronavirus produced a CFR of 8.4%. If that happens next winter, is the precedent set? Does the whole world go into lock-down?
Does anyone have any data indicating any vaccine to be more than 50% effective in elderly populations - such as over 70 years old. Enlighten me, please.
It seems to me that other methods, treatments, and technologies are needed. Vaccines are a poor solution if we want to protect elderly populations.
Edited by Mind, 28 March 2020 - 10:13 AM.