1042 replies to this topic

[Florin]

As I mentioned before, mask mandates are less compelling during the flu season than during this pandemic. During the flu season everyone has access to tanks (N95/N100 respirators) and can protect themselves from the drunk drivers (the maskless) if they choose to. But during this pandemic, that's not the case. Although tanks can be DIYed, a lot of (especially older) people probably can't and there are a lot of possibilities for mistakes even if they tried. Another issue to consider is that hospitals don't get overwhelmed during the flu season as they do during a pandemic.

[Danail Bulgaria]

I stumbled upon a free course on COVID19 on coursea, in which a video claims, that even the plain surgical masks are very effectively reducing the number of particles that an infected can spread. The course is named: 

COVID-19 Training for healthcare workers. The video is in the 8-th section of the course (in the section named "Treating the Mildly Dispneic Patient")

https://www.coursera...yspneic-patient

The video is 13 minutes 35 seconds long, the pro masks significant particles reduction on 11:50

 

[Florin]

The problem with surgical masks is that they still leak aerosols and those can accumulate in poorly ventilated buildings and infect other people. This is suspected to have happened in the UK where many hospitals have poor ventilation.
 
We Need to Talk About Ventilation
https://www.theatlan...mission/614737/

Edited by Florin, 31 July 2020 - 06:03 PM.

[Daniel Cooper]

As I mentioned before, mask mandates are less compelling during the flu season than during this pandemic. During the flu season everyone has access to tanks (N95/N100 respirators) and can protect themselves from the drunk drivers (the maskless) if they choose to. But during this pandemic, that's not the case. Although tanks can be DIYed, a lot of (especially older) people probably can't and there are a lot of possibilities for mistakes even if they tried. Another issue to consider is that hospitals don't get overwhelmed during the flu season as they do during a pandemic.

 
 
Just FYI - KN95 masks (the Chinese version of N95) are reasonably available and the quality of the filter material seems to be pretty decent.  I'm not normally that trustworthy of Chinese quality, but you can get an good idea of the quality of the filter material from sight and touch alone.  They also noticeably impede respiration more than cloth or surgical masks.  
 
The only issue I see with the KN95s is the physical design.  They are designed to fold completely flat, presumably so they can be dropped in an envelope to minimize shipping costs.   See below.

 

This leaves a sharp peak at the top of the nose piece that won't seal on many people's noses (unless you have a very sharp and narrow nose).  

 

You can address this by flattening out that peak with some flat blade pliers then re-bending it into a more rounded shape, or sticking a piece of closed cell foam at that point to make a better seal.

 

These should provide very good quality filtering.  But, they do increase the amount of effort required for breathing so I wouldn't put one of these on and go for a job or start lifting weights.

Edited by Daniel Cooper, 31 July 2020 - 06:32 PM.

[Florin]

There are a few (probably fatal) problems with the use of KN95s to replace cloth mask mandates.

• Most of them have been proven to be garbage.
• The rest can turn into garbage at any time (like Fujian).
• It's unclear if the supply of KN95s could match demand.
• They have ear loops which don't provide enough force to form a proper seal and can't be worn for long periods of time without significant ear irritation.
• They need to undergo significant modifications not only to seal around the nose properly but to also fix the ear loop issues.

Here's another way to think about mask mandates: a person emitting virus particles indoors is like a person smoking indoors, and most people don't think they should accommodate the smoker by wearing N95s indoors all of the time.

 

https://www.dentalpr...-failed-testing
https://www.fda.gov/...-euas#appendixa

[Daniel Cooper]

I have a number of these KN95 masks in my possession and they are vastly better than surgical or reusable cloth masks.

 

You can't let the perfect be the enemy of the good.  A very good mask that I can get is infinitely better than a perfect mask that I can't.

 

 

 

 

[Danail Bulgaria]

Don't underestimate the cloth masks.

Remember, the cloth masks have a pocket in which there may be whatever filter you may like. Thus the cloth mask protection becomes the protection of the cloths + the protection of the filter. If you like KN95, you may put it as a filter in your cloth mask.

I use a self-made cloth mask with 2 pockets. In the first one I have the filter from our academy of sciences, and in the second I put matter balast - cloths, arranged so that the gaps etween the threads not to overlap. Both the cloth mask and the filter can be sterilized and used many times.

Mark me as ill informed as you like. I am still fine, and still negative.

 

[Florin]

While some KN95s might be better than certain cloth masks, others might not be better. And if you're bothering to modify KN95s, why not just DIY a better mask, or better yet, get an infinitely better elastomeric respirator (if you can find one)?

 

As for cloth masks (including ones with filters), ConsumerLab has a list here.

 

Any mask is likely to be sufficient outdoors, but if you're spending time indoors around unmasked people or even alone but with a shared ventilation system, anything less than a real N95 (or N100 equivalent) is risky. And that's why mask mandates (at least for indoor spaces) are still necessary.

Edited by Florin, 01 August 2020 - 06:23 PM.

[Hebbeh]

https://news.trust.o...806221829-76we1

 

Nearly 300,000 Americans could be dead from COVID-19 by Dec. 1, University of Washington health experts forecast on Thursday, although they said 70,000 lives could be saved if people were scrupulous about wearing masks.

 

 

"We're seeing a rollercoaster in the United States. It appears that people are wearing masks and socially distancing more frequently as infections increase, then after a while as infections drop, people let their guard down," Dr. Christopher Murray, director of the IHME said in announcing the university's latest forecast.

[geo12the]

So I was exposed earlier this week to someone who likely was infectious at the time (she just tested positive a day or two after we spoke). We spoke for a while, indoors, standing about three or four feet apart. Both of us were wearing masks. I will report back if I get sick or not.  

Edited by geo12the, 07 August 2020 - 03:09 AM.

[pamojja]

In case-studies of long-term familiy settings with a infected persons without masks, upto 70% of household members didn't catch the virus.

[Florin]

[Danail Bulgaria]

Yes, fitting the mask to the face is very important. My cloth masks were stitched exactly to fit perfectly my face. They were stitched by me for me. But also don't forget to pay attention to the filter.

[Florin]

DIY mask materials compared to N95s
https://www.maskfaq.com/test-results

Edited by Florin, 09 August 2020 - 08:38 PM.

[Mind]

8 months and more outbreaks in South Korea. Masks don't "work". Contact tracing doesn't "work", if you considering "working" getting back to "normal". https://www.scmp.com...outbreak-church

 

Masks block a percentage of virus particles....however, get out in the real world where people interact and masks don't "work". Governments could mandate full hazmat suits out in public, and they would not "work". People have to eat. People have to sleep. Parents have to take care of their kids. Couples want to be intimate.

 

Meanwhile in Sweden, no mask mandate, schools are open, businesses are open, hardly any deaths from Covid-19 in the past month, very close to normal society.

[Hip]

Meanwhile in Sweden, no mask mandate, schools are open, businesses are open, hardly any deaths from Covid-19 in the past month, very close to normal society.

 

I don't think you can in any way claim that Sweden is a success, as it is near the top of the world COVID death per capita list:

 

High COVID death countries:

 

Sweden total deaths so far are 570 deaths per million of population.

USA total deaths so far are 520 deaths per million of population.

UK total deaths so far are 620 deaths per million of population.

Brazil total deaths so far are 520 deaths per million of population.

 

 

 

Low COVID death countries:

 

South Korea total deaths so far are 6 deaths per million of population. 

Japan total deaths so far are 9 deaths per million of population.

New Zealand total deaths so far are 5 deaths per million of population.

Uruguay total deaths so far are 12 deaths per million of population.

Cuba total deaths so far are 8 deaths per million of population. 

 

Ref: here.

[Daniel Cooper]

Whether or not Sweden is a success depends on how long it takes to get a vaccine and how effective it is.

 

If we're still here in another year waiting for a vaccine that's 50% effective, very likely the analysis will be that Sweden worked, because most industrialized countries are likely to have a similar deaths/1M population number.  All we can do is slow down the rate of infection, we can't stop it.  Given enough time, pretty much everyone will have gotten it at some point if an effective vaccine doesn't become widely available.

 

If on the other hand we end up with a 80% effective vaccine the first of next year, then some countries are going to come out looking much better than Sweden (Germany, the other Nordic countries, Japan, etc.).

 

Unfortunately my crystal ball is rather cloudy on the whole vaccine issue.

[pamojja]

Wikipedia has an interesting chart about mask compliance:

 

 

% of population wearing face masks in public, by country/territory (as of 9 August)^[241]

Country/territory %

 

Singapore 92 Spain 90 Thailand 88 Hong Kong 86 Japan 86 Malaysia 85 Indonesia 85 Philippines 84 France 83 India 82 Italy 81 China 80 Taiwan 80 Vietnam 79 United Arab Emirates 79 United States 75 Canada 74 Saudi Arabia 71 United Kingdom 69 Mexico 67 Germany 65 Australia 41 Finland 7 Sweden 6 Norway 5 Denmark 4

 

Now to compare 2 western countries in the northern hemisphere with similiar death rates - anything else would be comparing apples to pears, and picking cherries on top - lets compare Spain, with 616 deaths per million population and almost highest 90% mask compliance - with Sweden at 574 per million now, and almost lowest 6% mask compliance.

 

 

 Screenshot_2020-08-19 COVID-19 pandemic in Spain - Wikipedia.png   139.89KB   0 downloads

 

Above 60 covid deaths last week in Spain with highest mask compliance.

 

 Screenshot_2020-08-19 COVID-19 pandemic in Sweden - Wikipedia.png   293.89KB   0 downloads

 

Only 4 covid deaths last week in Sweden with lowest mask compliance.

 

 

Edited by pamojja, 19 August 2020 - 05:34 PM.

[Daniel Cooper]

You look at these various countries, the testing they've done, the lock downs, the percentage of mask wearing, etc., and it's really hard to see a clear signal of what is going on.

 

Was Germany really so good with testing and masking?  They don't seem to be exceptional at this point.  Did they do a vastly better job than France just across the border?

 

I can't help but think there is some variable here that we don't understand.  Lifestyle, diet, population genetics, social customs, and who knows what else.  If that is the case would be nice to get to the bottom of it.

 

 

 

 

Edited by Daniel Cooper, 19 August 2020 - 07:43 PM.

[Hip]

I can't help but think there is some variable here that we don't understand.  Lifestyle, population genetics, social customs, and who knows what else.  If that is the case would be nice to get to the bottom of it.

 

Could population compliance and cooperation be a factor in avoiding COVID deaths? A casual look at the list of countries with very high and very low coronavirus deaths suggests that the more liberal, individualist, rebellious and selfishly "me, me, me" a country's people are, the more deaths per capita they have.

 

Nations which have more socialist, or a communal approach to life and people similar to socialism, seem to have got coronavirus under much better control, likely because the populace behave in a cooperative way, and the people feel they have got to fight this virus together. 

 

 

For example, socialist Cuba has 8 deaths per million, whereas just 50 miles away, the right wing and liberal US has 520 deaths per million.

 

 

So perhaps right-wing philosophies like liberalism and right-wing populism may be a causal factor in high COVID deaths. (Yes I know liberalism is classed as left in the US, but in many ways liberalism is more aligned to capitalism than socialism).

Edited by Hip, 19 August 2020 - 07:49 PM.

[Daniel Cooper]

That seems unlikely.  I have friends that fled Cuba.  And while Cuba's healthcare system is universally available, it's also universally rotten.  The standard of care is pathetic.  I think it more likely that Cuba simply does not know how many covid deaths they have.  Their health care system is so dysfunctional that I would take any numbers they publish with a grain of salt. And that's aside from the fact that Cuba has been known to manipulate their heath care reporting to make themselves look better for propaganda purposes.

 

By the same toke, the U.K.'s health care system is also universally available and vastly better, yet they are in worse shape than the U.S.. And Italy is hardly a bastion of right wing populism.

 

I think national culture plays a big role here.  Countries which have historically been stereotyped as being "standoffish" (the Germans, the Norwegians, the Danes, etc) have done pretty well.  And countries that are very strict on emigration and their borders (i.e. Japan) have also done well.  Many Asian countries have a recent tradition of mask wearing even when their is no pandemic and they have initially done well, though some show signs of slipping.

 

Italians, the French, and Americans on the other hand are not notably standoffish.  You all in the UK are probably in between somewhere.

 

The Germans are the enigma to me.  I listen to Deutsche Welle and read some German news sites and I don't get the impression that they are more mask compliant than what I see in my local area in the US.  Maybe they've always kept more distance between themselves.  I know when I spent some time there it was noticeable that Germans simply did not converse with each other in situations where it would be common in the US (basically in any situation where people have to queue up and wait for something).  Everyone seemed to keep their head down and their mouths closed.

 

I never had much opportunity to use the German health care system, but my impression was at a practical level it wasn't much different than the UK (in terms of availability and standard of care).  You'd have a better read on that than me.

 

 

 

 

[Daniel Cooper]

I'll also add - I think it is an important data point on what these countries do with their elderly.  In our biggest hotspot (NYC) something like 45% of the reported covid deaths were in nursing homes. And there is some indications that those percentages might be under reported (for instance, if a nursing home patient contracts covid in the home, but is sent to a hospital and subsequently dies, that is not counted as a nursing home death in NYC. One would suspect that would not be an insignificant number of cases).

 

I don't know the answer to this.  Do Germans put their sick elderly in nursing homes as is commonly done in the US?  It would be interesting to know what percentage of various upper age brackets in these various countries are residing in communal nursing homes.  How's it done in the UK?

[Florin]

8 months and more outbreaks in South Korea. Masks don't "work". Contact tracing doesn't "work", if you considering "working" getting back to "normal". https://www.scmp.com...outbreak-church

Most of these small outbreaks are connected to small and probably poorly ventilated churches. Meeting in small, poorly ventilated spaces probably won't work, even with cloth masks.
 

Masks block a percentage of virus particles....however, get out in the real world where people interact and masks don't "work". Governments could mandate full hazmat suits out in public, and they would not "work". People have to eat. People have to sleep. Parents have to take care of their kids. Couples want to be intimate.

No one has to do any of that stuff in small public spaces like small churches, bars, and restaurants. Take it outside or make sure that the space is large, well-ventilated, and not crowded. Or just wear a respirator.
 

Meanwhile in Sweden, no mask mandate, schools are open, businesses are open, hardly any deaths from Covid-19 in the past month, very close to normal society.

South Korea has managed to be almost as normal as Sweden without manslaughtering their elderly population.

[Florin]

Wikipedia has an interesting chart about mask compliance:

 

 

% of population wearing face masks in public, by country/territory (as of 9 August)^[241]

Country/territory %

 

Singapore 92 Spain 90 Thailand 88 Hong Kong 86 Japan 86 Malaysia 85 Indonesia 85 Philippines 84 France 83 India 82 Italy 81 China 80 Taiwan 80 Vietnam 79 United Arab Emirates 79 United States 75 Canada 74 Saudi Arabia 71 United Kingdom 69 Mexico 67 Germany 65 Australia 41 Finland 7 Sweden 6 Norway 5 Denmark 4

 

Now to compare 2 western countries in the northern hemisphere with similiar death rates - anything else would be comparing apples to pears, and picking cherries on top - lets compare Spain, with 616 deaths per million population and almost highest 90% mask compliance - with Sweden at 574 per million now, and almost lowest 6% mask compliance.

 

 

Screenshot_2020-08-19 COVID-19 pandemic in Spain - Wikipedia.png

 

Above 60 covid deaths last week in Spain with highest mask compliance.

 

Screenshot_2020-08-19 COVID-19 pandemic in Sweden - Wikipedia.png

 

Only 4 covid deaths last week in Sweden with lowest mask compliance.

 

Spain, like most countries, mandated masks too late to avoid most of its early deaths, and even today, compliance isn't as high as it seems. For instance, no one has to wear masks in high-risk places such as bars and restaurants.

 

https://www.spectato...e-mask-policies

[Daniel Cooper]

South Korea has managed to be almost as normal as Sweden without manslaughtering their elderly population.

 

Again, I think it's important that you look at how each country handles their frail/sick elderly population.  Do they put them in communal nursing homes, or do their offspring keep them at home?

 

I'll confess I don't know what each of those countries do.  But given that an enormous percentage of the covid deaths in the US are associated with nursing homes that's the sort of question that needs an answer.

 

I've watched this in my own local area.  We had almost no covid deaths for months.  This is in a county with a 400,000 population where roughly half of those live in one decent sized city.

 

Then covid made it's way into a number of nursing homes.  What had been 4 covid deaths for about 3 months turned into 40 covid deaths in the next 2 months.  Our death rate has now fallen quite a bit.  Mask wearing has been mandated for some time now.  And I suspect that has helped.  But, sadly I also suspect that most of our vulnerable population in these nursing homes have now been exposed and have either gotten better or died.

 

If you live in a country were very few frail elderly are house in nursing homes I think you stand a far better chance of keeping the death count down.

[pamojja]

Spain, like most countries, mandated masks too late to avoid most of its early deaths, and even today, compliance isn't as high as it seems. For instance, no one has to wear masks in high-risk places such as bars and restaurants.

 

If you click on the reference you can see this isn't about mandates too late or earlier. It's self-reported mask-wearing in public places. 90% vs. 6%, of course having changed over time. Sweden highest compliance was a quick peak on April 10th at 10%, while Spain already hat risen steeply on March 20th above 12%.
 

Edited by pamojja, 19 August 2020 - 09:30 PM.

[pamojja]

Again, I think it's important that you look at how each country handles their frail/sick elderly population.  Do they put them in communal nursing homes, or do their offspring keep them at home?

 

Comparing different countries:

 

 Screenshot_2020-08-20 Studies on Covid-19 lethality.png   109.69KB   0 downloads

 

 

[Hip]

 I think it more likely that Cuba simply does not know how many covid deaths they have. 

 

Possible I guess, but I don't think miscounting COVID deaths will occur in an advanced nation like Singapore, which had just 5 COVID deaths per million of population.

 

Singapore is not a nation of liberal individualism; the contrary: on it has taken a strong anti-liberal stance, and instead promotes communitarianism, a philosophy that promotes the responsibility of the individual to the community.

 

So Singapore is yet another example of a nation whose national ideology is one of the community pulling together, rather than the individual doing their own thing.

 

Nations which have an ideology of the community pulling together seem to be doing far better at minimizing COVID deaths than nations which have an ideology of individualism. 

Edited by Hip, 19 August 2020 - 09:54 PM.

[Florin]

Again, I think it's important that you look at how each country handles their frail/sick elderly population.  Do they put them in communal nursing homes, or do their offspring keep them at home?
 
I'll confess I don't know what each of those countries do.  But given that an enormous percentage of the covid deaths in the US are associated with nursing homes that's the sort of question that needs an answer.
 
I've watched this in my own local area.  We had almost no covid deaths for months.  This is in a county with a 400,000 population where roughly half of those live in one decent sized city.
 
Then covid made it's way into a number of nursing homes.  What had been 4 covid deaths for about 3 months turned into 40 covid deaths in the next 2 months.  Our death rate has now fallen quite a bit.  Mask wearing has been mandated for some time now.  And I suspect that has helped.  But, sadly I also suspect that most of our vulnerable population in these nursing homes have now been exposed and have either gotten better or died.
 
If you live in a country were very few frail elderly are house in nursing homes I think you stand a far better chance of keeping the death count down.

Sweden and South Korea have at least 100k of nursing home residents each but only SK has had zero nursing home resident deaths.

 

https://www.scienced...167629616300492

https://www.scienced...976131713000212

https://news.yahoo.c...-135918520.html

[Florin]

If you click on the reference you can see this isn't about mandates too late or earlier. It's self-reported mask-wearing in public places. 90% vs. 6%, of course having changed over time. Sweden highest compliance was a quick peak on April 10th at 10%, while Spain already hat risen steeply on March 20th above 12%.

 

Ref 241 has nothing to do with any mask wearing.