1042 replies to this topic

[gamesguru]

I'll admit I'm stubbornly convinced of the use of masks. I think if people used them better and more often, we might see more profound effects, but I acknowledge the inconvenience and unlikeliness of this happening. So unless some contrary evidence emerges that 3-ply masks don't substantially reduce droplet release and that we were wrong about the initial studies, I'm pretty confident that masks do help.

 

I was still being entirely hypothetical at that point. Because I was only acknowledging the potentiality of it being directed to me. Really just pointing out the catch-22 nature, the absurdity of the objection.

 

My pulse rate is sitting around 57 bpm so I must be fairly relaxed. Ah, time to get a gallaba sandwich, baklava and some white tea. Nothing soothes the already calm nerves like the first proper meal of the day

[geo12the]

None of us can say what the infection rate would be if there was no masking. Any statement in that regard is an assumption.

 

Test positivity rates are not as illustrative as you might think. Consider two cases:

 

1.) A state were only people that show the symptoms of covid are tested.

 

2.) A state were people are periodically and routinely tested for their work or to attend school.

 

 

I also included per capita data from the CDC although I suppose you can make the same arguments about that data. There are different hypotheses to explain the increased test positivity and per capita rates in North and South Dakota vs. NY and CA. One hypothesis as you point out are discrepancies in how the numbers were collected and their accuracy in side by side comparisons. But a compelling hypothesis that cannot be discounted is that people in North and South Dakota have lower rates of mask wearing. People can believe what they want to believe, but if I had to bet a million bucks I would bet on the later hypothesis which is part of a larger body of data supporting mask efficacy. I believe COVID would skyrocket if people stopped wearing masks all together. It's common sense. And no you don't near to wear them all the time. I just went on a run in a park near my house and No I did not wear a mask. Nor do I wear them when having sex as was postulated by someone here. 

Edited by geo12the, 09 December 2020 - 01:45 AM.

[gamesguru]

Not only do the people there wear masks less, they probably also party more and give a sh*t less. Nevertheless I'd like to examine the data, any number of effects are possible. Lower population density might enable better per capita testing, for example.

I don't think most people in the West are wearing masks when visiting family or hanging out in groups of friends. And a lot of transmission is happening potentially in the home and in these circles.

Edited by gamesguru, 09 December 2020 - 02:56 AM.

[Hebbeh]

I can attest to geo12the assessment of the situation in the Dakota's.  I grew up in South Dakota and have a ton of family in both South and North Dakota as well as many old friends that I keep in touch with and the situation is going from bad to worse.

 

For what it's worth, both states are very red with the vast majority of the population very independently minded and fully endorsing limited to no government regulation of anything and with Republican Governors who have ascribed to the covid policy of zero government oversight and absolutely no mandates or guidance of any kind.  The governors policy has been openly stated as she believes everybody should decide for themselves how they want to handle it individually.  In other words, anything goes.  The governor of SD has fought to keep schools and businesses open no matter what (some of the meat packing plants had/has some of the biggest infection rates of any employer in the country).  She has stated the belief of herd immunity.  She went as far as tweeting on Black Friday for everybody to get out and support their local businesses.  And the vast majority don't wear a mask or practice distancing and is apparently the case of the Gov's cabinet and the legislature whom all treat non mask wearing as a badge of honor (leading by the example which makes them popular with the independently minded voters).  This all in a state with less than a million people where you have to literally go out of your way not to social distance.  The Governor's beloved 98 (I believe) year old grandmother recently died of covid to no avail.  And the governor is sticking to her non policy to the bitter end.

 

This type of non oversight has brought some of the worst per capita infection and death rates of not only almost every other state but of most other countries even though both states have less than a million people each where social distancing is almost the norm by definition.  None of this had/has to happen.  It's a tragedy.

[gamesguru]

It's cool I'm sure herd immunity is right around the corner for SD, or some optimist sh*t like that

[Mind]

 

 

Have you never noticed that the spread of coronavirus is temperature and season dependent? Did you not notice how the pandemic almost went away in the northern hemisphere summer, as the temperature increased? And now as winter returns, coronavirus is coming back with a vengeance?

 

Yes, I noticed this. I think that health bureaucrats mistook seasonality for "masks work and are the most super effective strategy for stopping COVID dead in its tracks". After all, the bureaucrats suddenly flipped on mask guidance based upon preliminary data from early Summer. It probably wasn't the masks that helped, it was the seasonality. Now that it is Winter again, the masks are almost useless (same goes for obsessive cleaning and plexiglass barriers). Like many commenters have been saying correctly for a long time. "The virus is gonna virus".

[Mr Serendipity]

I've only just realized something from today's experience. But first I should mention I rarely wear face masks because I rarely go shopping. But when required to, just to keep the peace, I put one on, but other times I don't give a monkeys and go maskless (probably slightly manic when I do this). But I'm rarely in a shop more than 5 minutes, and my wife does most of the shopping which is why I rarely go myself.

 

But today is the first time I started getting a constant runny nose since it's been a requirement to wear a mask for shopping. I occasionally get these allergy symptoms, usually when I've been slack on my diet and eat more diary, something that's happened to me way before corona.

 

Anyway I've been having to blow my nose and go through tissues constantly today, so I've had to pull down my mask to blow my nose when in a shop. I also had the occasional cough which I also pulled down my mask for.

 

Which made me realize, who the hell sneezes or coughs in their mask and then keeps wearing it, it's absolutely disgusting. Which also made me realize this whole mask thing is a fucking joke. I can't believe people would cough or sneeze in these things and then keep wearing them. If I was in a shop and I sneezed in my mask, I'd have to take it off straight away, or exit straight away to take it off. I just can't imagine it, but never realized how disgusting it was until today when I was required to blow my nose constantly, and hell if I'm gonna blow it on my mask lol

[pamojja]

Ivor Cummins: CRUCIAL Viral Update Dec 7th - Europe and USA Explained!

https://youtu.be/3cjgicrA504

This a big one - like my epic Sept 8th Crucial Update, which garnered 1,700,000 views.
DOWNLOAD THIS VIDEO HERE: https://we.tl/t-y1OPZYWRzZ - you all have full permission to upload it wherever you want. Lockdown analysis papers here: https://thefatempero.../published-p...

Finally, thank you so much, for what you can do to support me and more importantly - the mission to share good science!
For monthly donation to support me directly, or give a one-off payment - simply use the following link: https://www.tinyurl.com/IvorCummins
My Patreon Link here: https://www.patreon.com/IvorCummins

Edited by pamojja, 09 December 2020 - 05:19 PM.

[Hip]

Interesting that when you place the name of Ivor Cummins into a Google search, the first autosuggestion which comes up is Ivor Cummins Quack.

[Hip]

But today is the first time I started getting a constant runny nose since it's been a requirement to wear a mask for shopping. I occasionally get these allergy symptoms, usually when I've been slack on my diet and eat more diary, something that's happened to me way before corona.

 

You can develop allergies to masks which have been used for many days, as they can build up mold or bacteria. 

 

Ideally you want to replace a mask after some hours of total use, but because masks are in short supply, another approach is just to disinfect your mask by placing it in hot steam for 10 minutes. This can easily be done if you have a saucepan with a vegetable steamer. 

 

Some research at Stanford University found steaming was effective at mask disinfection. 

[pamojja]

Interesting that when you place the name of Ivor Cummins into a Google search, the first autosuggestion which comes up is Ivor Cummins Quack.

Just as anyone suggesting out of clinical experience that early outpatient treatment is effective against covid. That's factored in in Google's silly algorythms, and has nothing to do with facts.

[Hip]

That's factored in in Google's silly algorythms, and has nothing to do with facts.

 

Google autosuggests phrases on the basis of the most popular searches. So when you see an autosuggested phrase, then you know millions of people have typed that phrase into Google.

 

Thus people around the world are looking at Ivor Cummins's material, and obviously the first thing that comes into their mind is "this guy seems like a quack", and that's why they search for Ivor Cummins Quack.

Edited by Hip, 09 December 2020 - 07:02 PM.

[pamojja]

Thus people around the world are looking at Ivor Cummins's material, and obviously the first thing that comes into their mind is "this guy seems like a quack", and that's why they search for Ivor Cummins Quack.

When I search Ivor Cummins on Google - which I don't use otherwise anymore for for all below in that article listed reasons - the first suggestion for Ivor Cummins isn't what you found, but covid 1st, 2nd twitter, and only third quack.

Google Censors, Shadowbans, and Blacklists Alternative Health News https://m.theepochti...ws_3098108.html

Also nothing new from you since february: appeal to authority, adhominem - but no substancial arguments against the by now well rectifyable facts presented by Ivor.

As usual, diverting to non-issues.

[gamesguru]

Well, just what are the important points set forth by Ivor?

[Florin]

Low compliance = high mortality

 

The States with the highest deaths per million spikes in the Spring were NY, NJ, and CT, and compliance was below 60%. But after compliance increased, there has been no comparable increases in deaths. Now, the States with the highest deaths per million spikes are SD, ND, and IA, and compliance is also mostly below 60%.

 

Mind has anecdotally reported high compliance in Wisconsin, but while compliance has been consistently higher than in SD, ND, and IA, it's still less than 70% and lags behind NY, NJ, and CT. Unsurprisingly, the latest increase in the death rate is between that of SD, ND, and IA at the high end and NY, NJ, and CT at the lower end.

 

https://public.table...=viz_share_link
https://covid19.heal...use&tab=compare

Edited by Florin, 09 December 2020 - 09:09 PM.

[Daniel Cooper]

Let's look at some graphs for ND vs. NY.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Notice anything?

 

North Dakota entirely missed the initial wave that New York suffered from the end of March to the end of May. That's not surprising. It's a fairly remote, sparsely populated state without a lot of inbound travel.

 

You can make a very good argument that North Dakota is only now experiencing it's initial covid wave which started in early - mid September. While NY had it's initial wave starting in mid to late march.  Yes, you can point out that NY is not having a lot of deaths now while ND is, but this arguably because ND is only now seeing the wave that NY had 6 months earlier.  

 

This view would be entirely consistent with masks not being very effective, and covid infection following for the most part a seasonal pattern.

 

I'm not exactly saying that masks don't work. I am saying that you should start to be skeptical when you see areas with good mask compliance and their rates of infection don't decline.  I'm am definitely saying that this is a complex problem and the answer is far from clear.

 

 

 

 

[Florin]

Yeah, I did notice a few of things.

• Seasonality can't explain NY's low death rate.
• Higher compliance can explain why NY has high case counts but low death counts; masks seem to prevent high-dose infections which are more likely to lead to death.

Seasonality could play a role here, but it's importance (at least for mortality) diminishes as compliance increases.

[gamesguru]

I mean New York & NJ did have a disproportionate number of deaths early on in the pandemic due to mistakes made with nursing homes, but still it seems the masks and closures are doing something to help this Winter.

 

I'm still awaiting clarification on Ivor's points before delving into a full analysis. Testing, cases, deaths. A lot has changed in a few short months.

[geo12the]

Let's look at some graphs for ND vs. NY.

 

 

You can make a very good argument that North Dakota is only now experiencing it's initial covid wave which started in early - mid September.  

 

 

But what is causing this initial wave to be so bad when the population is so sparse? Likely behavior and masking.

 

As bad as the spread is at the moment it could be much worse. And I think without masking we would be lacking at nearly most people catching it.

[Daniel Cooper]

Yeah, I did notice a few of things.

• Seasonality can't explain NY's low death rate.
• Higher compliance can explain why NY has high case counts but low death counts; masks seem to prevent high-dose infections which are more likely to lead to death.

Seasonality could play a role here, but it's importance (at least for mortality) diminishes as compliance increases.

 

I think there are a number of explanations for the current low death rate in NY as opposed to the current infection rate which is almost as high as it was in the dark days of late winter.

 

1.) Test are more readily available today than they were early in the pandemic. Therefore people less symptomatic and less critically ill are getting tested. These patients are likely to have a more positive outcome.

 

2.) Doctors have more experience treating the disease. They are more likely to know which patients need early aggressive treatment than they were in the back in March - May. Also, there are some treatment options like monoclonal antiboties and remdesivir available that were not early on.

 

3.) The viral strains in circulation now may be slightly less lethal than the strains in circulation early in the pandemic. This would be normal for an RNA virus like covid.

 

4.) And lastly, possibly having the most bearing on ND, it is possible that NY's most vulnerable population, the most aged and in particular the aged in nursing homes, have now been "culled" by the first wave in late winter/early spring. In short, a good percentage of the people most likely to die from covid are now dead.

 

We know that covid ran rampant through NY's nursing homes. About half of all of NY's deaths were in nursing homes. I suspect that a high percentage of nursing home patients have now been exposed and either survived and have some amount of immunity or they have unfortunately died.

 

ND's most vulnerable population is now getting their first expose to covid. That may explain their current high death rate.

Edited by Daniel Cooper, 10 December 2020 - 02:51 AM.

[Daniel Cooper]

But what is causing this initial wave to be so bad when the population is so sparse? Likely behavior and masking.

 

As bad as the spread is at the moment it could be much worse. And I think without masking we would be lacking at nearly most people catching it.

 

Averages really give you limited information.  North Dakota is on average sparely populated. 9.7 people per square mile. But you shouldn't picture three houses with 3.23 people in them per square mile.

 

What it really looks like is clumps of people with a population density a lot like any other suburban part of the country with big stretches of absolutely nothing in between.  In those communities, covid is going to spread just like any other community of similar density any where else in the country. But, with more cool dry months that covid (like the other coronaviruses that cause 30% of the common colds) seems to prefer.

[Florin]

1.) Test are more readily available today than they were early in the pandemic. Therefore people less symptomatic and less critically ill are getting tested. These patients are likely to have a more positive outcome.

If you don't trust case stats and just want to focus only on mortality, fine, but it doesn't change the fact that seasonality can't explain NY's low death rate. If you don't trust these mortality stats either, that's fine too; just look at the excess death stats.

 

2.) Doctors have more experience treating the disease. They are more likely to know which patients need early aggressive treatment than they were in the back in March - May. Also, there are some treatment options like monoclonal antiboties and remdesivir available that were not early on.

 

Ditto ND docs.
 

3.) The viral strains in circulation now may be slightly less lethal than the strains in circulation early in the pandemic. This would be normal for an RNA virus like covid.

 

As far as I know, there has been no change in this virus' lethality in ND versus NY.
 

4.) And lastly, possibly having the most bearing on ND, it is possible that NY's most vulnerable population, the most aged and in particular the aged in nursing homes, have now been "culled" by the first wave in late winter/early spring. In short, a good percentage of the people most likely to die from covid are now dead.
 
We know that covid ran rampant through NY's nursing homes. About half of all of NY's deaths were in nursing homes. I suspect that a high percentage of nursing home patients have now been exposed and either survived and have some amount of immunity or they have unfortunately died.
 
ND's most vulnerable population is now getting their first expose to covid. That may explain their current high death rate.

So, ND has learned nothing from NY?

 

Also, has NY really run out of old, uninfected people?

[Heisok]

Seems that deaths in California have risen to as high as the first peak. 200 plus or minus.

[Dorian Grey]

Seems that deaths in California have risen to as high as the first peak. 200 plus or minus.

 

I'm in San Diego, & everyone has been masked to the max for months.  Problem is...  They think when they are masked, social distancing isn't important.  

 

I see masked people talking when out & about who are standing less than 2 feet from one another; their loose fitting reusable masks hanging loosely off their face.  A false sense of security!  

 

I'd rather talk to an unmasked person at 6 feet than someone with a loose fitting mask at 2 feet any old day.  I keep backing up or stepping to the side, but folks keep approaching into my space.  I guess they think: "Hey, I'm masked, so it's OK".  Back off dude, I can smell what you had for lunch!  

 

Still can't get over the outdoor mandate.  We had brisk 10-15 MPH winds today, yet I couldn't eat my lunch in the courtyard of the mall.  NO OUTDOOR DINING! Had to take my fish tacos back to the car & eat them cold.  

 

The world's gone mad!  

Edited by Dorian Grey, 10 December 2020 - 05:59 AM.

[Daniel Cooper]

If you don't trust case stats and just want to focus only on mortality, fine, but it doesn't change the fact that seasonality can't explain NY's low death rate. If you don't trust these mortality stats either, that's fine too; just look at the excess death stats.

 
I think you misunderstand what I'm saying. Back during NY's first wave, tests were in short supply. They were essentially being rationed. It is therefore likely that they were being reserved for a sicker patient population. It would stand to reason that now that tests are readily available that they are being more broadly used. I for instance get tested once per week and I've never had a single symptom of covid the entire time. Therefore, you're likely catching a lot of either asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic people that would not have been caught before.  These patients will have a better outcome and will be less likely to die. Thus the difference in the death rate between then an now.  
 

Ditto ND docs.

 
Ditto on access to new treatments that were not available during the initial wave, but not ditto on having first hand experience seeing a lot of covid cases. ND is only now in the meat of their initial covid wave. That is not deniable looking at the graph.  I promise you that NY doctors had far more actual patient experience when ND's initial wave started this September.
 

As far as I know, there has been no change in this virus' lethality in ND versus NY.

 
There has been a change in the virus's ability to spread - we just saw a few weeks ago a paper that stated that the virus's R0 has increased. It is normal for these types of viruses to both increase their ability to spread while decreasing their lethality.  But, I'll freely admit that the latter being the case with this virus is speculation on my part.
 

So, ND has learned nothing from NY?
 
Also, has NY really run out of old, uninfected people?

Of course ND has learned something from NY. But, no matter what they've learned they had an almost entirely virgin population with respect to covid infection when their initial wave started this September. No amount of learning will change that fact.

Have NY run out of old uninfected people? In their nursing homes (which were half their deaths) - yes that is a possibility. Old people living in a close communal setting like a nursing home is a recipe for rapid and complete spreading of this virus. So if half the source for covid deaths have now been exposed and either survived or died that will make a substantial dent in the fatality rate.

Your counter position is that mask haven't slowed the infection rate very much, but they have decreased the death rate due to lower initial viral load. That's every bit as speculative as anything I've said.

[geo12the]

There is an interesting tool at Covid numbers: 

 

https://delphi.cmu.edu/covidcast

 

With this disease there are of course multiple factors that are contributing to infection and the numbers are not 100%. But this is the data we have to look at. There is no perfect experiment or perfect data to look at. Given that caveat, there is a pretty good correlation between mask wearing and COVID cases per capita. Here is some data:

 

Top graph is mask compliance as of October 1. Darker blue means higher % of people wearing masks. Bottom graph is per capita cases as of November 1. Darker red means more COVID. People can find alternate explanations to the hypothesis that in states with less masking, covid rates per capita are higher. But I believe the simplest explanation: Masks are not perfect but they help keep the spread down.

 

 

Attached Files

•  Covid-1.jpg   130.36KB   0 downloads

[Daniel Cooper]

Good site. But keep in mind, those states that are light blue/dark red are the same states that for the most part skipped the first wave. And of course vice versa - the states that are dark blue/light red were the states that experienced the first wave back in March - May.

 

That whole northern midwest area pretty much didn't participate in the first wave of the pandemic.

 

You really can't easily tease this data apart. Too many independent variables.

 

 

[Mind]

Saying "if people weren't wearing masks it would be much worse". Is 100% speculation. I am commenting on what has actually happened, in my area, and around the world. Masks have not stopped the spread, not even close. There are many reasons, which I detailed many times in this thread.

[geo12the]

Saying "if people weren't wearing masks it would be much worse". Is 100% speculation. I am commenting on what has actually happened, in my area, and around the world. Masks have not stopped the spread, not even close. There are many reasons, which I detailed many times in this thread.

 

And saying  " Masks have not stopped the spread, not even close." Is not speculation? I agree that seasonality effects transmission, but that does not discount the effect of masking. The spread could be much worse without measures to slow the transmission. I pointed to data in the US that shows correlations between mask wearing and per capita infection rates. My interpretation is it suggests masks help. 

Edited by geo12the, 10 December 2020 - 04:51 PM.

[geo12the]

 

 

You really can't easily tease this data apart. Too many independent variables.

 

Why do I think if this same data were on HCQ use people here would be falling over themselves to say how easily interpretable the data is? Independent data aside, it's the data we have. There is not a perfect experiment in this case. Ofcourse there are many variables but why overlook what it is clearly suggesting?