1042 replies to this topic

[Mind]

It seems the most successful public policy measure is extreme lockdown. Small-ish island nations that can easily shut their borders and control movement of the population have done better. Arresting people and welding them in their apartments like in China, seemed to work well. Forbidding travel more than 5km like in Australia, seemed to work okay.

 

Masks have not worked well.

 

Trying to sanitize everything has not worked well.

 

Putting up barriers at customer service stations has not worked well.

 

Banning outdoor activities/dining is the most bizarre response I have seen, and has probably caused more spread and death for multiple reasons.

[Hip]

Saying "if people weren't wearing masks it would be much worse". Is 100% speculation. I am commenting on what has actually happened, in my area, and around the world. Masks have not stopped the spread, not even close. There are many reasons, which I detailed many times in this thread.

 

One thing to take into consideration is risk compensation. If people feel safer because of mask use, then they may be inclined to take greater risks.

 

This taking of greater risks will then tend to negate the effect of wearing a mask, in terms of preventing viral spread. 

 

So for example, a person might feel more confident to travel by public transport, or to go to a supermarket, if they and other members of the public are all wearing masks. So they may go out and mingle with the public more because they feel safer. That is risk compensation, and it occurs in all areas of life.

 

Risk compensation may be reducing the anti-coronavirus effect of masks; however, risk compensation is not necessarily a bad thing: it is good from the economy if people feel safer and more confident to go out and spend money.

 

 

Bottom line is that you cannot assess the beneficial effects of wearing masks, social distancing, putting up protective barriers, etc solely in terms of their effect on viral spread; you also have to consider that these measures are likely helping to facilitate a degree of return to normal life.

 

Without these measures, the degree of return to normal life that we currently enjoy may not have been possible.

Edited by Hip, 10 December 2020 - 05:40 PM.

[geo12the]

It seems the most successful public policy measure is extreme lockdown. Small-ish island nations that can easily shut their borders and control movement of the population have done better. Arresting people and welding them in their apartments like in China, seemed to work well. Forbidding travel more than 5km like in Australia, seemed to work okay.

 

Masks have not worked well.

 

Trying to sanitize everything has not worked well.

 

Putting up barriers at customer service stations has not worked well.

 

Banning outdoor activities/dining is the most bizarre response I have seen, and has probably caused more spread and death for multiple reasons.

 

The one thing you don't grasp is that exponential spreading of the virus has been suppressed. As bad as it is, it could be much worse. The measures have slowed the spread. And there is data that suggest that. 

[Hip]

The one thing you don't grasp is that exponential spreading of the virus has been suppressed. 

 

Yes, non-mathematicians tend to have a hard time grasping the concept exponential growth. 

 

The word "exponential" is sometimes used in a vague way, as a sort of superlative adjective to describe something which is getting bigger; so people think they know what the word means; but exponential dynamics have a precise mathematical meaning, and a particular behavior, which requires mathematical training to appreciate.

Edited by Hip, 10 December 2020 - 05:47 PM.

[Daniel Cooper]

Why do I think if this same data were on HCQ use people here would be falling over themselves to say how easily interpretable the data is? Independent data aside, it's the data we have. There is not a perfect experiment in this case. Ofcourse there are many variables but why overlook what it is clearly suggesting?  

 

Because I can look at the same data and say "this is clearly almost purely a seasonal effect".

 

Go look at NY's infection rate. It's a bathtub. With the minima in the warm summer months and the maxima in the cold dry months.  

 

Did mask use suddenly get far far worse in NY as we went into fall?

[Daniel Cooper]

Yes, non-mathematicians tend to have a hard time grasping the concept exponential growth. 

 

The word "exponential" is sometimes used in a vague way, as a sort of superlative adjective to describe something which is getting bigger; so people think they know what the word means; but exponential dynamics have a precise mathematical meaning, and a particular behavior, which requires mathematical training to appreciate.

 

I'm an engineer.  I had four undergad classes in calculus, a class in differential equations, a class in linear algebra, two classes in statistics, a class in numerical methods, grad level tensor calculus, advanced statistics, and several digital signal processing classes.  

 

I'm pretty damned familiar with exponential expressions which are used extensively in my field.

Edited by Daniel Cooper, 10 December 2020 - 06:27 PM.

[Daniel Cooper]

The one thing you don't grasp is that exponential spreading of the virus has been suppressed. As bad as it is, it could be much worse. The measures have slowed the spread. And there is data that suggest that. 

 

The problem is that this argument is used for every thing that doesn't live up to how it was previously advertised.

 

"Well, if we hadn't done X things would have been far worse".

 

This is not a valid argument because it can not be proven false in theory. None of us posses a time machine where we can roll events back and the repeat history but take out X.

[Hip]

I'm pretty damned familiar with exponential expressions which are uses extensively in my field.

 

I was not referring to anyone in particular. Anyone who has studied a science, engineering or technology subject which relies heavily on mathematics will usually understand exponential equations.

 

But most of the general public do not really understand exponential dynamics, and thus they don't fully appreciate the hospital-overloading explosion of COVID cases that will occur if the brakes are not kept on the exponential growth.

[geo12the]

Because I can look at the same data and say "this is clearly almost purely a seasonal effect".

 

Go look at NY's infection rate. It's a bathtub. With the minima in the warm summer months and the maxima in the cold dry months.  

 

Did mask use suddenly get far far worse in NY as we went into fall?

 

I do believe the virus is affected by seasonality. But that does not negate from the effect of masks. Unfortunately the mask data on COVID cast only goes back as far as September. But as of August and September the per capita case counts in ND and SD  are starting to surpass those in CA and NY so it's not merely seasonality. 

[geo12the]

The problem is that this argument is used for every thing that doesn't live up to how it was previously advertised.

 

"Well, if we hadn't done X things would have been far worse".

 

This is not a valid argument because it can not be proven false in theory. None of us posses a time machine where we can roll events back and the repeat history but take out X.

 

"None of us posses a time machine where we can roll events back and the repeat history but take out X."

 

That is true but since we can't do that we can look at places where people wear masks and places where they wear them less frequently and ask if there is a difference. There is. Even the summer numbers. So why spread the idea that masks don't work if there is evidence that they do? 

[geo12the]

I'm an engineer.  I had four undergad classes in calculus, a class in differential equations, a class in linear algebra, two classes in statistics, a class in numerical methods, grad level tensor calculus, advanced statistics, and several digital signal processing classes.  

 

I'm pretty damned familiar with exponential expressions which are used extensively in my field.

 

We are not in a contest about who is smarter but many of us here have similar creds. I am a research biologist/entrepreneur  who has worked on viruses, albeit bacterial viruses, and one of my current jobs involves due diligence and statistical analysis of biological data. 

[Daniel Cooper]

We are not in a contest about who is smarter but many of us here have similar creds. I am a research biologist/entrepreneur  who has worked on viruses, albeit bacterial viruses, and one of my current jobs involves due diligence and statistical analysis of biological data. 

 

Simply answering the assertion that "non mathematicians don't understand exponentials".

[Daniel Cooper]

"None of us posses a time machine where we can roll events back and the repeat history but take out X."

 

That is true but since we can't do that we can look at places where people wear masks and places where they wear them less frequently and ask if there is a difference. There is. Even the summer numbers. So why spread the idea that masks don't work if there is evidence that they do? 

 

Incidentally, I'm not saying that masks don't work. I think to an extent they do. But they are not the silver bullet some would have us believe.

 

I just get a little frustrated when I point out "Hey, when we implemented mask wearing and got good compliance we don't notice much of a decline in the infection rate" that I always get back "People aren't wearing the right mask, people aren't wearing the mask correctly, people are ignoring social distancing when they wear the mask, my dog ate my homework, etc. etc. etc.".

 

We hold out certain Asian countries as the gold standard of mask wearing, notably South Korea, since they've been so successful at suppressing covid. But when we wear masks and our infection rates don't plummet, the fall back is "well, we aren't wearing the masks as good as South Korea.  But, South Koreans aren't magical perfect people. Look around. You'll see people there wearing masks with their nose exposed, less than perfect masks (almost no one is wearing an N95 on the street in SK). 

 

You can not assume that there are perfect masks and perfect mask wearing and perfect social distancing in South Korea and that the only reason we still have covid is that we have yet to realize their level of perfection.

 

At some point you need to re-evaluate your assumptions and ask yourself if there might be other reasons South Korea has been so successful, because it's certainly true that there are other differences between South Korea and Europe/US aside from masks.

[gamesguru]

They may understand exponentials, but do they understand logistic regressions?

 

I mean at some level you have to accept either, (a) South Korea has cultural factors on its side, or (b) Every country in the East is profoundly under-reporting. I'm inclined to the former and less so to the tinfoil hat theory.

 

And yes, masks are likely to be one such factor. I looked through the 2020 AP photographs of the year, and I saw a family by the river in China. You know what they were wearing? Masks^[1]! Outside. And decent, surgical masks.

 

doi: 10.1073/pnas.2008087117. Epub 2020 Sep 22.
Transmission dynamics reveal the impracticality of COVID-19 herd immunity strategies

The rapid growth rate of COVID-19 continues to threaten to overwhelm healthcare systems in multiple countries. In response, severely affected countries have had to impose a range of public health strategies achieved via nonpharmaceutical interventions. Broadly, these strategies have fallen into two categories: 1) "mitigation," which aims to achieve herd immunity by allowing the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus to spread through the population while mitigating disease burden, and 2) "suppression," aiming to drastically reduce SARS-CoV-2 transmission rates and halt endogenous transmission in the target population. Using an age-structured transmission model, parameterized to simulate SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the United Kingdom, we assessed the long-term prospects of success using both of these approaches. We simulated a range of different nonpharmaceutical intervention scenarios incorporating social distancing applied to differing age groups. Our modeling confirmed that suppression of SARS-CoV-2 transmission is possible with plausible levels of social distancing over a period of months, consistent with observed trends. Notably, our modeling did not support achieving herd immunity as a practical objective, requiring an unlikely balancing of multiple poorly defined forces. Specifically, we found that 1) social distancing must initially reduce the transmission rate to within a narrow range, 2) to compensate for susceptible depletion, the extent of social distancing must be adaptive over time in a precise yet unfeasible way, and 3) social distancing must be maintained for an extended period to ensure the healthcare system is not overwhelmed.

 

Pathog Dis. 2020 Apr; 78(3): ftaa025.
Long-term and herd immunity against SARS-CoV-2: implications from current and past knowledge

Effective herd immunity against SARS-CoV-2 will be determined on many factors: the percentage of the immune population, the length and effectiveness of the immune response and the stability of the viral epitopes. The required percentage of immune individuals has been estimated to be 50–66% of the population which, given the current infection rates, will take long to be achieved. Furthermore, data from SARS-CoV suggest that the duration of immunity may not be sufficiently significant, while the immunity response against SARS-CoV-2 may not be efficiently effective in all patients, as relapses have already been reported. In addition, the development of mutant strains, which has already been documented, can cause the reemergence of the epidemic. In conclusion, the development of an effective vaccine is an urgent necessity, as long-term natural immunity to SARS-CoV-2 may not be sufficient for the control of the current and future outbreaks.

 

Lancet Infect Dis. 2020 Oct 12
Genomic evidence for reinfection with SARS-CoV-2: a case study

The degree of protective immunity conferred by infection with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is currently unknown. As such, the possibility of reinfection with SARS-CoV-2 is not well understood. We describe an investigation of two instances of SARS-CoV-2 infection in the same individual.

 

Methods
A 25-year-old man who was a resident of Washoe County in the US state of Nevada presented to health authorities on two occasions with symptoms of viral infection, once at a community testing event in April, 2020, and a second time to primary care then hospital at the end of May and beginning of June, 2020. Nasopharyngeal swabs were obtained from the patient at each presentation and twice during follow-up. Nucleic acid amplification testing was done to confirm SARS-CoV-2 infection. We did next-generation sequencing of SARS-CoV-2 extracted from nasopharyngeal swabs. Sequence data were assessed by two different bioinformatic methodologies. A short tandem repeat marker was used for fragment analysis to confirm that samples from both infections came from the same individual.

Findings
The patient had two positive tests for SARS-CoV-2, the first on April 18, 2020, and the second on June 5, 2020, separated by two negative tests done during follow-up in May, 2020. Genomic analysis of SARS-CoV-2 showed genetically significant differences between each variant associated with each instance of infection. The second infection was symptomatically more severe than the first.

Interpretation
Genetic discordance of the two SARS-CoV-2 specimens was greater than could be accounted for by short-term in vivo evolution. These findings suggest that the patient was infected by SARS-CoV-2 on two separate occasions by a genetically distinct virus. Thus, previous exposure to SARS-CoV-2 might not guarantee total immunity in all cases. All individuals, whether previously diagnosed with COVID-19 or not, should take identical precautions to avoid infection with SARS-CoV-2. The implications of reinfections could be relevant for vaccine development and application.

Funding
Nevada IDEA Network of Biomedical Research, and the National Institute of General Medical Sciences (National Institutes of Health).

 

How Long Will Immunity To The Coronavirus Last?

 

And, for now, people who have already been infected with the coronavirus will also have to wait and see whether they remain immune, and if so for how long.

 

Immunity to four milder coronaviruses, which circulate widely and cause common colds, doesn't persist for years on end. So, the duration of an antibody response may depend at least in part on whether an infection led to a significant illness – and a significant immune reaction.

[Hebbeh]

Incidentally, I'm not saying that masks don't work. I think to an extent they do.

I just get a little frustrated when I point out "Hey, when we implemented mask wearing and got good compliance we don't notice much of a decline in the infection rate"

Your argument that we've had good compliance with mask wearing is getting old and quite honestly doesn't even begin to hold water. It doesn't take much to look around and see we've never reached much better than 50%, or I'll give you the benefit of the doubt and say some areas maybe reached 70 or 80% but without 100% compliance (that you infer), you are going to have at least 20-50% of the population in any given area being potential spreaders and taking it home, taking it to work, taking it to rallies, and taking it to church and everywhere else they go. So with realistically almost half the population not complying for whatever reason, it will continue to spread at will which is what we're seeing. I know you're intelligent enough to realize that so I fail to understand what you get out of playing devil's advocate with your straw man argument.

By the way, I have no doubt that in South And North Dakota, you'll be lucky to find better than 30 or 40% compliance however they have no mandate to comply with anyway so it's probably a mute point.

You even admit that you wear a mask which indicates you believe in the minimum that it helps in some capacity... And probably more than you're willing to admit. So why would you partake in spreading false information at the risk of causing unneeded suffering and potential death to others by preaching the devil's advocate stance with straw man arguments that don't support obvious evidence?

Why would you not use your intelligence and knowledge to help others rather than set then up for failure?

I can't help but wonder if you sleep well taking the public stance in a position of authority (moderator) that advocates potentially increased suffering and death from this airborne pandemic.

[Hebbeh]

I have to add, how much trouble or effort does it take to wear a mask and hopefully not become a statistic or spreader while at the same time helping keep the economy open?

I don't understand people that adamantly are against masks while at the same time want to keep the economy running

[Daniel Cooper]

I can't help but wonder if you sleep well taking the public stance in a position of authority (moderator) that advocates potentially increased suffering and death from this airborne pandemic.

 

I may address your other issues, but this is just incredibly frustrating.  I've said in this very thread that:

 

1.) I wear a mask in public.

2.) That I encourage other people to wear a mask in public.

 

So are you suggesting that unless I swear some sort of oath of fidelity to the Church of Mask Wearing that I have blood on my hands?

[Daniel Cooper]

I just don't get the psychology of this mask wearing thing.  

 

We have drawn up battle lines and accuse the other side of heresy if the other person isn't in complete agreement with every point of our own orthodoxy. This has all the hallmarks of having become a religious issue rather than a matter of science to be discussed dispassionately on it's merits.

 

 

[Hebbeh]

1.) I wear a mask in public.
2.) That I encourage other people to wear a mask in public.

So are you suggesting that unless I swear some sort of oath of fidelity to the Church of Mask Wearing that I have blood on my hands?

If you would stop and be honest with yourself for even 1 minute, you might realize that you have done nothing but rail against masks with ridiculous straw man arguments. And in your position of authority, some number of people will be convinced by you.

It doesn't take an intelligent engineer to see the outcome.

[Daniel Cooper]

If you would stop and be honest with yourself for even 1 minute, you might realize that you have done nothing but rail against masks with ridiculous straw man arguments. And in your position of authority, some number of people will be convinced by you.

It doesn't take an intelligent engineer to see the outcome.

 

Because I have some I think valid skepticism that masks have delivered on their promise. I look at communities that have implemented mask mandates, where I see good apparent compliance with these mandates, and very little impact on infection rates.

 

This is a perfectly reasonable issue to raise.  But in your and some other's minds, the question shouldn't even be asked. If masks don't seem to be working, well we're just not wearing masks hard enough.  

 

I fully concede, my skepticism may be misplaced. I may be completely wrong. But a certain segment seems to believe that merely to suggest that masks might not be the silver bullet is completely illegitimate.  I do not accept that. Orthodoxy should be a foreign concept to science.

[Hebbeh]

Nobody has ever claimed that masks are necessarily the silver bullet. But masks could very well be the best tool we have until an effective vaccine is available for all. If people would use masks consistently which simply isn't happening.

If you don't believe masks are helping, fair enough. But then what do you suggest to improve the current situation that would be more effective than masks or doing nothing?

[Daniel Cooper]

 

If you don't believe masks are helping, fair enough.

 

Again, you're saying things that I haven't said, don't believe, and have stated the opposite of.

 

I believe that it is likely that masks help. But I am skeptical that they are the main reason that South Korea has almost no covid to speak of as some have suggested here. Were that the case, I would expect to see a more dramatic effect in those areas where we appear to have good mask wearing compliance.  

 

This assumption (i.e. that masks explain South Korea) is not without consequence if it is wrong. If there's some other reason that South Korea is doing so well, and we aren't investigating because we assume it is the masks, then we may be missing something that would potentially be a useful tool to fight the pandemic with.

 

What do I suggest now? - Wear your masks, stay away from crowds, put as much distance between yourself and other people as is practical, and sanitize your hands as much as possible. What else is there to suggest at this point? I do all of those things. In addition I supplement some zinc, take a reasonable daily dose of quercetin, and make sure I keep my vitamin D levels up.  But, those are speculative prophylactics at best, I have no idea if they are doing any good.

 

 

Edited by Daniel Cooper, 10 December 2020 - 09:46 PM.

[gamesguru]

How is it heresy? I literally see my grandparents daily. So yeah, sorry, but I'm gonna give the dude at the gym without a mask the stink eye, and i'm gonna keep my distance.

 

I'm not necessarily gonna ask him why he's without a mask, and I'm not necessarily gonna tattle to the dude at the front desk. I'm just going to have a genuine moment of hesitation and subtle, non-verbal discontent. I'm just going wonder why he's being so stubborn and making others uncomfortable when a vaccine, herd immunity is potentially right around the corner.

[Dorian Grey]

Well, the truth about the outdoor dining ban broke, & it ain't pretty.  After A judge in Los Angeles ruled health officials there could not prove it was a risk, they actually admit it was just for show.  Keep the public rattled, scared and in their homes.  

 

https://www.voiceofs...outdoor-dining/

 

Why the State Closed Outdoor Dining

 

"On Tuesday, California Health and Human Services Agency Secretary Mark Ghaly confirmed a version of our guesses."

 

“The decision to include among other sectors outdoor dining and limiting that — turning to restaurants to deliver and provide takeout options instead — really has to do with the goal of trying to keep people at home, not a comment on the relative safety of outdoor dining,”

 

Last Thursday, Gov. Gavin Newsom spent a minute saying how much he empathized with restaurant owners and employees who were struggling, but he didn’t once just explain why they should shut down after all the money spent adapting to the outdoors.

 

-----------------------

 

Personally, I still think it's because they can't stand a situation where the public might be allowed to lower their masks, even long enough to eat a taco.  

 

We live in interesting times!  

[gamesguru]

Ok so we've gone from the valid criticism that officials might be closing outdoor dining to scare people into taking the situation more seriously and staying home and being safe, to the quite possibly conspiracy theory that they're just controlling us for their own entertainment and sadistic pleasure. Do you not see how a line has been crossed in going from one to the other?

 

Just because closing outdoor dining is ineffective at curbing the spread AND ineffective at scaring people into gather less at home, that doesn't mean the government is playing mind control. Have you considered that they are just that stupid and naive, and they think things work that way?

[Dorian Grey]

Don't believe it's a conspiracy to destroy small business, or stupidity/naivety.  More of a political group hysteria, similar to the HCQ war.  

 

Some folks have simply reached a point where the thought of an un-masked face (even outdoors) gets them cataplectic; much like those who could't bear the thought of a doctor & patient trying a therapeutic they both agreed might help and wouldn't be harmful.  

 

People are cracking up under the strain!  

Edited by Dorian Grey, 11 December 2020 - 01:26 AM.

[Daniel Cooper]

How is it heresy? I literally see my grandparents daily. So yeah, sorry, but I'm gonna give the dude at the gym without a mask the stink eye, and i'm gonna keep my distance.

 

I'm not necessarily gonna ask him why he's without a mask, and I'm not necessarily gonna tattle to the dude at the front desk. I'm just going to have a genuine moment of hesitation and subtle, non-verbal discontent. I'm just going wonder why he's being so stubborn and making others uncomfortable when a vaccine, herd immunity is potentially right around the corner.

 

You keep talking about herd immunity but as far as I can tell, you're the only one mentioning it unless I missed something.

 

I'm not interested in a herd immunity approach aside from that which will be obtained through a vaccine. If Sweden hasn't yet achieved herd immunity, and if you look at their graphs recently they clearly have not, then I certainly have no interest in pursing that here. Particularly now that a vaccine appears be around the corner.

[gamesguru]

If there's a hysteria or war, then there's two sides to it. And I don't think anyone here is going quite "cataplectic", but point noted.

Seems like up to a third of people will refuse the vaccine initially. But particularly that it is right around the corner, no use fighting the masks like SD.

[Mind]

The data is in. I can't deny what I see. Other people have kept track of it as well.

 

https://mailchi.mp/t...ts?e=a4b5ac53bd

 

https://twitter.com/yinonw

 

I am unsure where people are getting their mask compliance data, but CMU tracks mask compliance in the US and most of the country is well over 80% and most urban areas are way over 90%. https://delphi.cmu.e...3&compare=42007 For those saying no one is wearing masks, or it is only 50% or 60%, where are you getting your data?

 

I would be more in favor of mask mandates if they worked. We were sold on the fact that if everyone wears masks, the pandemic would be over quickly. That hasn't happened. Just the opposite has happened. Continuing to push a policy that doesn't work and is just getting people sick and killed, is not compassionate, IMO. Time to shift strategies. Testing, protect the vulnerable, use proven treatments, etc...

[gamesguru]

And are they tracking mask compliance withing private social gatherings?

 

Nobody was sold the idea that masks were a magic solution. Maybe someone in this thread said that, but that was their belief at that time.

 

Most of us think masks are no replacement for social distancing, and Americans are not using masks in even half the situations they should be. So that would make it only doubly important to combine masks with other social distancing measures.