1042 replies to this topic

[Florin]

Social distancing isn't a magic bullet either. Aerosols accumulate indoors regardless of distance. People won't social distance with everyone. 6 feet isn't ideal, especially for the more contagious variants.

 

The best solution is reusable respirators. No social distancing required.

[Dorian Grey]

Social distancing isn't a magic bullet either. Aerosols accumulate indoors regardless of distance. People won't social distance with everyone. 6 feet isn't ideal, especially for the more contagious variants.

 

The best solution is reusable respirators. No social distancing required.

 

Agree, no magic bullets if you're going to go outside your home & interact with others.

 

"The best solution is reusable respirators. No social distancing required."  I trust you mean respirator with eye goggles.  Any exposed mucus membrane can result in infection.  

 

Still, I'd prefer to inhale a small concentration of ambient indoor aerosol, which is more likely to result in asymptomatic or mild infection & natural immunity, than get a lung full of highly concentrated aerosol at close quarters.  The size of initial inoculum largely determining severity of disease.  

 

Masks have given everyone a false sense of security, and social distancing has largely been abandoned.  I'm shocked at what I see while out & about.  

[Danail Bulgaria]

...

 

Masks have given everyone a false sense of security, ...

 

Masks work in my case.

From the start of the pandemics up to now I haven't been infected, and all of my tests that far have been negative.

 

 

[Florin]

"The best solution is reusable respirators. No social distancing required."  I trust you mean respirator with eye goggles.  Any exposed mucus membrane can result in infection. 

Yes, but I'd prefer wraparound safety glasses as goggles are probably overkill (eyes don't "inhale," so they're not going to suck up aerosols). I usually don't mention eye protection (or more obvious stuff like hand washing) because reusable respirators are far more important.
 

Still, I'd prefer to inhale a small concentration of ambient indoor aerosol, which is more likely to result in asymptomatic or mild infection & natural immunity, than get a lung full of highly concentrated aerosol at close quarters.  The size of initial inoculum largely determining severity of disease.  
 
Masks have given everyone a false sense of security, and social distancing has largely been abandoned.  I'm shocked at what I see while out & about.

If you want some but not a huge amount of exposure, wearing a mask is probably the safest way to do that.

Edited by Florin, 24 February 2021 - 10:42 PM.

[Mind]

Just like the masks have proven to be ineffective at stopping the spread of the most recent pandemic (as was well-known before 2020), disinfecting everything everywhere is just about useless as well: https://www.popsci.c...es-spread-clean

 

I am glad to see many more mainstream publications acknowledging the futility and "religiosity" of NPIs (masks, social distancing, plexiglass barriers, disinfecting). The world cannot be turned into a level 5 clean room. This much should be obvious.

 

The only thing that has worked to some degree is extreme lockdowns, especially for island nations that can more easily close and monitor their borders.

Edited by Mind, 25 February 2021 - 04:21 PM.

[Dorian Grey]

Yes, but I'd prefer wraparound safety glasses as goggles are probably overkill (eyes don't "inhale," so they're not going to suck up aerosols). I usually don't mention eye protection (or more obvious stuff like hand washing) because reusable respirators are far more important.
 

If you want some but not a huge amount of exposure, wearing a mask is probably the safest way to do that.

 

Except that masks don't work during close encounters: 

 

https://www.yahoo.co...-144533471.html

 

You can spread COVID-19 by talking in hair salons or during a massage - even while wearing a mask, research suggests

 

The false sense of security you get from your magic shields can kill! 

 

Simply stand back, & stay safe.

[Florin]

Except that masks don't work during close encounters: 

 

https://www.yahoo.co...-144533471.html

 

You can spread COVID-19 by talking in hair salons or during a massage - even while wearing a mask, research suggests

 

The false sense of security you get from your magic shields can kill! 

 

Simply stand back, & stay safe.

 

Masks work if you want a lower dose which is what you seem to be after.

 

If you don't wear a mask, someone could easily sneak up on you and give you a full dose, or you could pass through a dense cloud of aerosols without realizing it.

 

If you don't want any exposure, wear a reusable respirator.

[Dorian Grey]

Masks work if you want a lower dose which is what you seem to be after.

 

If you don't wear a mask, someone could easily sneak up on you and give you a full dose, or you could pass through a dense cloud of aerosols without realizing it.

 

If you don't want any exposure, wear a reusable respirator.

 

I'd prefer not to get dosed at all, but if I do get infected I'd like the smallest inoculum possible.  

 

Looks like the greatest danger of large inoculum occurs in close contact, masks or not.  

 

Prioritize social distance for maximum safety!  

[geo12the]

I'd prefer not to get dosed at all, but if I do get infected I'd like the smallest inoculum possible.  

 

Looks like the greatest danger of large inoculum occurs in close contact, masks or not.  

 

Prioritize social distance for maximum safety!  

 

I think one thing no one is talking about is that there is probably variability in the amount of virus spread depending on the physiology of the infected individual and the timing of their infection.  Based on reports of superspreading events (there was just one in the paper about a gym instructor infecting a bunch of people), my hypothesis is that some people may turn into COVID factories and churn out high loads of the virus. If you are near them you are out of luck. I had hoped they would speed up the production of rapid test kits that would easily identify such people but I haven't heard a peep on that front for a while. My view on masks is that they work BUT if you near a "COVID factory" person who knows.

Edited by geo12the, 26 February 2021 - 04:52 AM.

[Dorian Grey]

I think one thing no one is talking about is that there is probably variability in the amount of virus spread depending on the physiology of the infected individual and the timing of their infection.  Based on reports of superspreading events (there was just one in the paper about a gym instructor infecting a bunch of people), my hypothesis is that some people may turn into COVID factories and churn out high loads of the virus. If you are near them you are out of luck. I had hoped they would speed up the production of rapid test kits that would easily identify such people but I haven't heard a peep on that front for a while. My view on masks is that they work BUT if you near a "COVID factory" person who knows.

 

Agree.  Masks, good!  Distance, good!  Masks + distance: PRICELESS!  

[Mind]

More states are lifting mask restrictions. Texas, Mississippi, Connecticut, Iowa, etc... I suspect they look around and see that the mask mandates did nearly nothing to stop the spread, as evidenced by states like Florida and South Dakota, that never instituted the statewide mask and other ineffective NPI mandates, and ended up the same or even better.

 

I suppose politicians are looking around and wondering about their jobs. When people look at Florida and see that the state did not descend into a 3rd-world, virus-devastated, death camp (as was predicted ad nauseum by mainstream media outlets, WHO, CDC, NIH, etc...), they start wondering why they are living under such draconian COVID restrictions. The Florida story is pretty interesting. The oldest population in the nation and yet fared better with COVID than many other states (like California, New York, New Jersey, etc...).

 

Maybe the politicians are just banking on the vaccines to keep the numbers lower going forward and there is no longer a need for such tight restrictions.

 

Remember when Georgia reopened and National media in the US claimed it would turn into the "killing fields"? Didn't happen.

 

Remember when the Washington Post claimed "Welcome to Iowa, the State That Doesn't Care if You Live or Die"   How embarrassing. Iowa Covid numbers have declined dramatically, more so than most other Midwest states.

 

Nevada opened up their Casinos last year against the "advice" of the health bureaucrats and the national media and yet have fared waaaaaay better than right-next-door California.

 

The masks work really really well in the lab with mannequins, just not so well out in the real world.

[Florin]

California has done better (sometimes a lot better) than all of the states you mentioned including Florida. If you're looking for killing fields, states like South Dakota and Mississippi have experienced more deaths per capita.

 

https://covid.cdc.go...s_deathsper100k

Edited by Florin, 05 March 2021 - 08:10 PM.

[Mind]

California has done better (sometimes a lot better) than all of the states you mentioned including Florida. If you're looking for killing fields, states like South Dakota and Mississippi have experienced more deaths per capita.

 

https://covid.cdc.go...s_deathsper100k

 

The point is that Florida, Georgia, South Dakota, Iowa, Nevada, were predicted to descend into COVID-related chaos, death, despair, etc... It didn't happen. Some people noticed.

 

In addition the map only shows raw numbers, no controls for health status and/or age. It is not surprising that Colorado did better during this pandemic considering it is often ranked as having the healthiest population in the nation. The deep south has the most obese citizens (Florida one of the oldest), and COVID mortality is highly correlated with age, obesity, and health status.

[geo12the]

The point is that Florida, Georgia, South Dakota, Iowa, Nevada, were predicted to descend into COVID-related chaos, death, despair, etc... It didn't happen. Some people noticed.

 

In addition the map only shows raw numbers, no controls for health status and/or age. It is not surprising that Colorado did better during this pandemic considering it is often ranked as having the healthiest population in the nation. The deep south has the most obese citizens (Florida one of the oldest), and COVID mortality is highly correlated with age, obesity, and health status.

 

There isn't a perfect dataset but If you look at places where people wear masks, cases of COVID are fewer. I've pointed this out before and it still holds true. You can visualize some mask wearing stats here and compare to per capita COVID cases.  https://delphi.cmu.edu/

   

 

I my own extended family there are relatives that are strict about mask wearing and in another branch of the family the relatives are the opposite- they rarely wear masks.  Ang guess what? At the moment the not-mask wearing relatives almost all currently  have or have had COVID. I literally just got an update about their status and symptoms etc. None of my mask wearing family has contracted COVID. 

 

I can't believe some people still argue about this except for the need to virtue signal they are anti-establishment or anti-Fauci and don't listen to authority blah blah blah. Whatever!   

[geo12the]

https://thehill.com/...er-covid-deaths

[Florin]

The point is that Florida, Georgia, South Dakota, Iowa, Nevada, were predicted to descend into COVID-related chaos, death, despair, etc... It didn't happen. Some people noticed.

 

In addition the map only shows raw numbers, no controls for health status and/or age. It is not surprising that Colorado did better during this pandemic considering it is often ranked as having the healthiest population in the nation. The deep south has the most obese citizens (Florida one of the oldest), and COVID mortality is highly correlated with age, obesity, and health status.

 

Those states (including Florida) did have more (sometimes a lot more) death than California. It did happen.

 

Your old-and-obese argument is suspect. For instance, you can compare California to the hardest hit Northeastern states or Sweden to Finland and Norway.

Edited by Florin, 06 March 2021 - 07:33 PM.

[Mind]

Okay, do you believe the CDC? A study (un-controlled for anything except cases) of all counties in the U.S. showed about a 1% decrease in the growth rate of COVID cases in counties with mask mandates.

 

Based upon this result, it should not be surprising that Florida with no state-wide mandates is very similar to places like California.

 

 

 

Those states (including Florida) did have more (sometimes a lot more) death than California. It did happen

 

You keep obscuring/ignoring the point. Based upon the statements from CDC, NIH, WHO, and national media outlets, because Florida has no statewide mask (NPI) mandates, they should be GUARANTEED to have 10 times, 100 times, 1000 times more deaths than places like California. It didn't happen. Florida and California are less than 10% different.

 

Florida did better than places like New York, New Jersey, New Mexico, and many other states that had very strict NPI mandates. It wasn't supposed to be that way. People can keep ignoring the data, but it won't go away.

 

 

Your old-and-obese argument is suspect

 

This is so well known that it isn't even controversial among hardly anyone debating what the best response to the pandemic is.

 

Obesity linked with COVID death rates.

 

The CDC links obesity and worse COVID outcomes.

 

Obesity linked with worse COVID outcomes even in young patients.

 

Elderly are thousands of times more likely to die from COVID than younger people - CDC.

 

I could spend all day citing health agencies from almost every country in the world  - showing the same thing (obese patients dominate the ICU in the Netherlands, elderly are the most at risk in India).

 

[Daniel Cooper]

Okay, do you believe the CDC? A study (un-controlled for anything except cases) of all counties in the U.S. showed about a 1% decrease in the growth rate of COVID cases in counties with mask mandates.
 
Based upon this result, it should not be surprising that Florida with no state-wide mandates is very similar to places like California.
 
 
You keep obscuring/ignoring the point. Based upon the statements from CDC, NIH, WHO, and national media outlets, because Florida has no statewide mask (NPI) mandates, they should be GUARANTEED to have 10 times, 100 times, 1000 times more deaths than places like California. It didn't happen. Florida and California are less than 10% different.
 
Florida did better than places like New York, New Jersey, New Mexico, and many other states that had very strict NPI mandates. It wasn't supposed to be that way. People can keep ignoring the data, but it won't go away.
 
 
This is so well known that it isn't even controversial among hardly anyone debating what the best response to the pandemic is.
 
Obesity linked with COVID death rates.
 
The CDC links obesity and worse COVID outcomes.
 
Obesity linked with worse COVID outcomes even in young patients.
 
Elderly are thousands of times more likely to die from COVID than younger people - CDC.
 
I could spend all day citing health agencies from almost every country in the world  - showing the same thing (obese patients dominate the ICU in the Netherlands, elderly are the most at risk in India).

 
They don't call Florida "God's waiting room" for no reason. One of the most popular destination states for retirees since the 1950s.
 
It would be interesting to look at a histogram of FL and CA's population age demographics broken down by decade.
 
And even at that, with all those retirees, FL has significantly outperformed NY and other more enlightened states with mask mandates.
 
Here's the top 10 in terms of deaths per 1M population:



You have to go all the way down to 27th place to find Florida:

[Daniel Cooper]

FYI - I went and looked that the age demographics by state. Maine, Puerto Rico, and Florida are all tied for first for 65+ population at 21%.  California is near the bottom ranked at 46 with the 65+ population at 14.9%

 

.

[Hebbeh]

There are way too many confounding factors to attempt to draw any conclusions as if this data is from some type of controlled trial other than to grasp at straws in an attempt at justifying a political position.

 

You seem to assume that nobody was wearing a mask in states with no mask mandate and that everybody was wearing a N95 correctly and diligently in states with a mask mandate.  That's the only way to draw the assumptions that you seem intent on making for the data to fit your opinion and nothing could be farther from the truth.

 

I'm sure many of those high risk elderly in Florida were practicing self preservation and isolating at home, diligently practicing social distancing , and wearing masks when necessary in spite of no mandate.  None of them reached a ripe old age by being stupid and foolhardy.  Honestly, what would you advise your parents or grandparents?  Or what would you do if at high risk?

 

How many here have parents and grandparents that refused to wear masks or take prudent precautions to avoid being exposed and/or infected?

 

And if most people are wearing a mask anyway, what is the issue with making it official to protect the most at risk from the foolhardy?  Other than foolishly attempt to turn it into a political issue and/or taking a stand against conformity at the expense of the rest of us.

[Daniel Cooper]

There are a lot of confounding factors and drawing clear conclusions is difficult. They will study this pandemic for years and many issues will remain contentious.

 

But, I can clearly conclude that the predictions of doom for states like Florida that didn't adopt mask mandates were unfounded.

 

 

[Hebbeh]

Who cares if mask mandates were issued or not as long as people were prudently wearing masks.  And if people were wearing masks with high compliance (as you and others have suggested), then why the rebellious attitude against prudent mandates?

 

The original issue whether masks provide some degree of protection versus no degree of protection has degenerated into the issue of which states decided to make it official versus states that weren't willing to take a stand.  In other words, a political issue.

 

And if your position is masks don't provide any degree of protection, then why did you bother to comply?  And don't tell me because it's the law as you have already admitted you would wear one anyway.  I assume you advised the same to your elders.

 

The argument seems based on authority rebellion or the proverbial "nobody is going to tell me what to do".

[Dorian Grey]

Personally, I'm simply intellectually offended by policy based on emotion rather than science.  

 

Indoor mask mandates aside (for now), posit the fact that science overwhelmingly indicates outdoor transmission is next to nil, even in crowds like the BLM riots over the Summer.  Yet here in California, outdoor dining was banned for months (Gov Newsom couldn't stand the thought of maskless dining, even outdoors), museums are still closed (masked or not) & outdoor mask mandates persist.  San Diego mayor Todd Gloria declared "masks must be worn continuously, every time you are outside of your home".  This means driving alone in your car...  Walking your dog in the park...  Going to the beach.  Madness!  

 

Indoors (in public places) I see the faithful mask believers standing 18 inches apart, chattering up a storm with clerks & other strangers, their magic shields hanging loosely off their faces.  Not smart!  

 

The mask zealots have convinced the ignorant masses they are totally protected so long as they are wearing their magic shields, and any time you see a naked face outdoors, you are looking at a potential murderer, who should be shunned and shamed.  

 

I worked as a Surgical Technologist for 35 years, & have spent more hours masked than anyone else here.  Don't mind wearing them indoors, but I'm experienced enough to realize DISTANCE is the best buffer against inhaling a concentrated cloud of aerosol from an infected person.  

 

Go ahead & wear your masks driving alone in your car, walking your dog, & at the beach; but please don't  be offended if you hear far off laughter, from one who knows the value of social distancing (your ultimate plague precaution).  

Edited by Dorian Grey, 09 March 2021 - 05:21 AM.

[Hebbeh]

Dorian, so what are you saying?  Masks have no degree no efficacy at all and are a complete waste of effort and complete false sense of security?  That all these years of doctors and nurses wearing masks was just for show to make us feel good?

[Daniel Cooper]

Dorian, so what are you saying?  Masks have no degree no efficacy at all and are a complete waste of effort and complete false sense of security?  That all these years of doctors and nurses wearing masks was just for show to make us feel good?

 

I'm not answering for Dorian, but lots of studies before covid-19 have concluded that masks were minimally effective for halting the transmissions of upper respiratory infections like flu. There have been studies subsequently that have come to conclusions on both sides of the fence post covid-19.

 

And that ought to be a clue.  Things that really work well - antibiotics for instance - you don't find studies on both sides of the issue. When antibiotics first arrived it was like a miracle. People that would clearly have died previously could recover in a matter of days. Diseases like tuberculosis which were previously long drawn out death sentences suddenly weren't.  There was  a very strong signal in the data that these drugs worked and nobody of any knowledge disputed that.

 

With masks we get a study here that shows a positive effect, a study there that shows little or no effect, back and forth.  What that tells you is that the signal is not strong - it is of the same magnitude as the noise. So, one study finds it and the next study doesn't. That's what you expect when you have a low signal to noise ratio.

 

I don't doubt that masks do something positive. But, only weakly so. Some will argue "Well, we could have had better masks or people could have been even more compliant". And you can't argue with that. You can always do something better. But these things have been far from a slam dunk.

[Dorian Grey]

Nope (Hebbeh), I'm saying politicians and political doctors have gone giddy over the limited protection masks offer.  If you absolutely can't avoid close contact indoors, wear a mask, & it may help, but don't portray them as magic shields against aerosol infections, and destroy entire (dining) economies because you can't eat while wearing them.  

 

We wear masks in surgery to prevent little spit-balls getting into surgical wounds as the surgical team vocalizes during the procedure, but we are very aware they will not protect us from laser plume (smoke) while vaporizing HPV warts.  We have to suction that smoke with a powerful vacuum, or it will get right by our masks & transmit human papillomavirus to our airway.  

 

The mask zealots have given the masses a false sense of security by telling us they protect against aerosols.  It has resulted in the greatest super-surge of the pandemic this Winter, with great loss of life.  Mask mandates everywhere, & they didn't do much good at all that I can see.  Evidence Based Medicine!   

Edited by Dorian Grey, 09 March 2021 - 02:23 PM.

[Hebbeh]

Nobody has ever said that masks were magic shields that would provide 100% protection from infection or would be on the level of antibiotics but that doesn't negate the fact they are another tool to limit exposure and very likely help avoid some degree of contagion and corresponding disease and potential deaths if used correctly.

We will never know how many people avoided exposure due to mask usage as that is impossible to measure. And to say "they didn't do much good at all" is a huge stretch as even you or your loved ones may very well have been in the group that avoided exposure due to the masks that you admit wearing but denigrate.

I don't know if that is irony or arrogance.

Even after vaccination, mask wearing would be well advised as vaccination doesn't prevent contracting covid but instead only primes The immune system to deal with it. And vaccines are looking to not provide reliable protection against the even more contagious variant strains quickly emerging.

Personally, I would prefer to still do everything in my power to avoid exposure in spite of vaccination and masks are still a good tool to help accomplish that.

I've been wearing N95 and KN95 masks the past year and I've been around dozens of coworkers that ended up infected as well as who knows how many people out shopping and I've avoided exposure. I believe it's reasonable to believe I would of joined my coworkers if I too would of depended on cheap disposable surgical masks worn around my chin.

And I think most people are reluctant to understand that my wearing a mask is as much about protecting you from me as it is also to protect myself. It's working together for a common good.

[Dorian Grey]

"Nobody has ever said that masks were magic shields that would provide 100% protection"

 

Technically factual perhaps, but somewhere, somehow, the masses seem to have jumped to this conclusion.  Politicians & policy doctors have parroted out their mantra: "Just wear a mask to keep everyone safe...  Shun & shame those who don't, and shut down any business where patrons can't remain masked full time".  

 

They got a bit carried away, and we the people have paid the price.  Death & disease has swept through our masked population, & no one seems willing to admit the false sense of security promised by strict masking has failed us.  

 

If you truly wish to stay safe, my advice is to watch your distance, & know which way the wind is blowing.  Be conscious of vocalization as the primary generator of aerosols.  Avoid close contact chatter.  This is what is driving the spread!  

Edited by Dorian Grey, 09 March 2021 - 03:51 PM.

[Hebbeh]

Dorian, now you're simply grasping at straws to avoid the true issue of whether masks provide some degree of protection for both the mask wearer and the rest of us and therefore both help in limiting the spread of and some degree of avoided infection versus masks do nothing at all but cause hard feelings.

There is no doubt in my mind that diligent use of high quality masks have had a big impact on my avoiding infection to date and very likely you too have potentially avoided exposure due to mask usage without even realizing it.

[Daniel Cooper]

Even after vaccination, mask wearing would be well advised as vaccination doesn't prevent contracting covid but instead only primes The immune system to deal with it. And vaccines are looking to not provide reliable protection against the even more contagious variant strains quickly emerging.

 

 

I just refuse to live my life in that kind of fear. They tell us the vaccines are 94% effective. And that is the effectiveness against getting sick at all. They are basically 100% effective at keeping you out of the hospital and the morgue (including the J&J vaccine). Now these numbers are either correct or they are not. If they are correct and you are vaccinated, you are no longer in danger. Period. End of sentence.  

 

When I get the vaccine and the mask mandates are lifted, my mask is coming off and I'm going to try to enjoy life more. Sitting at home, marking time, not engaging with the world ..... you guys can have it. I'm done.

 

In spite of the focus of this site, we're all going to die of something. Enjoy as much life as you can. It's fleeting.