BTW - let's talk about what caused this year long relative lull in covid infections and deaths. First what didn't cause it:
1.) It was likely not caused by vaccinations. Most people that have been vaccinated received the 2 shot sequence sometime in 2021. The uptake rate on boosters has been exceedingly low. The data tells us that the effectiveness of the vaccines wanes pretty quickly. A vaccine taken in 2021 is providing very little immunity today in 2023.
2.) It certainly has not been caused by masks. Masks really stared coming off in a wide scale fashion as this minima started in early 2022. Most of the country has not been wearing masks significantly for at least 9 months. In most places even longer. Where I live - it has been a very low percentage of the population routinely wearing a mask for at least the last year. Both mask usage rates and infection/death rates have been simultaneously low for approaching a year now.
So what likely had caused it?
1.) Natural ongoing exposure and immunity. We've reached the point were a significant percentage of the population has had covid (and a large percentage of those that have had it don't know it). Probably more significantly, people are likely seeing some ongoing exposure where they are getting exposed to the virus with enough intact immunity in place so they aren't getting very ill such that it is boosting their immunity without causing significant sickness. This is a known phenomena with other viral infections like polio (which is why children were at risk but adults typically were not prior to the polio vaccine).
2.) Probably most significantly, the virus continues to adapt to it's new host and in doing so becomes less and less lethal. This is the biggest contributor to the end of most viral pandemics.
Now, I'm sure that someone will ding me with a "Needs references" tag and you're right. So consider this an Op-Ed piece based on a long term interest in the history of viral pandemics. But let me suggest this is not an uninformed opinion.
Edited by Daniel Cooper, 15 March 2023 - 09:12 PM.