The purpose of this thread is to focus attention in order to avoid a Mad Max scenario.
Most apocalyptic warnings end up being spectacularly wrong, but this is likely because the warning came out after the signs of trouble were already being seen by the "general public", and thus solutions were already being put into motion by the time the warning came out.
Hopefully this is the case this time around.
There is no reason for the COVID-19 disease to cause the collapse of society, however, the extreme reaction to this coronavirus that almost exclusively kills the elderly, obese, and those in ill-health is worrisome. There are certainly more effective/rationale ways to protect the most vulnerable (and they should be protected!), than just shutting down most of the world.
Many politicians and health authorities around the world seem very willing to sacrifice progress, future lives, everything, just to save one life today.
Even given the extreme reaction and the willingness to suspend most economic activity, it seems quite unlikely that society will destabilize to the point of a Mad Max scenario.
The main concern is the food supply. I am sure most people have seen the stories about cracks in the supply chain. The UN has warned of a "biblical famine" coming later this year. Current fruit and vegetable crops are not being 100% harvested as in prior years due to the lack of migrant labor and the broken supply chains. In Italy and New Foundland, troubles in shipping logistics caused short-term concerns. In the U.S. meat production is being affected by a significant percentage. Farmers are forced to dump milk because of broken supply chains.
Some countries are starting to restrict food exports in order to protect their own citizens.
I could post a hundred other stories about food supply disruptions that are flying under the radar.
It seems like there is plenty of food in storage to get through the COVID-19 economic destruction, but people probably forget that eastern Africa suffered from an extreme locust infestation earlier this year and lost a significant amount of crops and the locusts continue to spread.
There is also no guarantee that the upcoming growing season will be a good one. Already there are signs of a significant freeze in mid-May for many areas of the Midwest in the U.S., potentially harming anticipated fruit crops later this year. There is already some severe drought in the American west/southwest and it looks dry again for the next 2 to 3 weeks.
Someone mentioned in another thread that "the world has gone through drought, pandemics, and world wars before", and never descended into chaos.
However, all of those tribulations occurred in a more resilient population. The world used to be more agrarian. A large percentage of the world lived in rural areas and grew their own food. People were "jacks of all trade". In the past, the average person knew how to grow food, knew how to fix things, were well-connected with their community, had strong family ties, etc...
That is not the case nowadays. Most people just go by the paradigm "click=deliver food" and never think about the complexity of growing, preserving, and distributing food all over the world. Farmers can't even fix their modern tractors without the permission of the manufacturers. Hardly anyone can fix car problems because there is too much software involved.
Of course, a couple other pillars of a stable society are power/energy and communication. While there are some strains in these areas, they seem less vulnerable than the food supply.
What do you think? Nothing to worry about, or too close to "Mad Max" for comfort.
