356 replies to this topic

[Hebbeh]

Why the Covid-19 'Lab Leak Theory" Needs Another Look | Medium

[pamojja]

[Mind]

Fauci said in 2012, risky gain-of-function research was worth it, that the benefits outweighed the risk.

[Turnbuckle]

A retrospective study of blood samples found covid19 antibodies in blood samples taken in 2019, with the earliest positive taken on September 3, 2019, pointing to an August infection, showing that the pandemic began earlier than previously known. This was in a region that according to Wikipedia was known for the eating of bats, and the bats in this northern region were known to be heavily infested with covid-type viruses from a study in 2017. The part of the country was hit the hardest, while the country overall had one of the world's highest infection rates. The region was Veneto, and the country was Italy. Compare that to China, which detected their first cases months later, and had one of the lowest infection rates. In fact, all of eastern Asia had rates that were ten to a thousand times lower than Europe and the US.

 

 

 

Edited by Turnbuckle, 29 May 2021 - 06:14 PM.

[xEva]

A retrospective study of blood samples found covid19 antibodies in blood samples taken in 2019, with the earliest positive taken on September 3, 2019, pointing to an August infection, showing that the pandemic began earlier than previously known. This was in a region that according to Wikipedia was known for the eating of bats, and the bats in this northern region were known to be heavily infested with covid-type viruses from a study in 2017. The part of the country was hit the hardest, while the country overall had one of the world's highest infection rates. The region was Veneto, and the country was Italy. Compare that to China, which detected their first cases months later, and had one of the lowest infection rates. In fact, all of eastern Asia had rates that were ten to a thousand times lower than Europe and the US.

 

 

this is not well-researched.  Rather, this is misleading, hopefully not intentionally -?

 

1.  Last mention of bat eating in Italy, after 16th century, was during WW2. -- that's according to your wiki link

 

2. The blood samples were taken starting in Sep, but nothing was found till Oct and later. This too is according to your links.

 

3. There is an old Chinatown in Milan with over 21K people living just there.  The well-to-do families have had properties in surrounding regions. Milan sewer sampling of cov2 antibodies peaked in Dec 2019.

 

 

It's much simpler to assume that the virus was brought to Italy from China in fall of 2019.

[Turnbuckle]

this is not well-researched.  Rather, this is misleading, hopefully not intentionally -?

 

1.  Last mention of bat eating in Italy, after 16th century, was during WW2. -- that's according to your wiki link

 

2. The blood samples were taken starting in Sep, but nothing was found till Oct and later. This too is according to your links.

 

3. There is an old Chinatown in Milan with over 21K people living just there.  The well-to-do families have had properties in surrounding regions. Milan sewer sampling of cov2 antibodies peaked in Dec 2019.

 

 

It's much simpler to assume that the virus was brought to Italy from China in fall of 2019.

 

 

Wrong. Do you have trouble with reading comprehension? Or are so so intent on making it China that you ignore the simpler explanation, that it was never China to begin with, and Trump was wrong. His only reason for attacking China was that he had a disaster on his hands and had to blame someone. That was always his MO about everything.

 

From the first linked study:

 

The first positive sample (IgM-positive) was recorded on September 3 in the Veneto region, followed by a case in Emilia Romagna (September 4), a case in Liguria (September 5), two cases in Lombardy (Milano Province; September 9), and one in Lazio (Roma; September 11). 

 

 

As for bat eating, it would only take one bat and one old timer to start an epidemic. From the 2017 study there are bats in the area that are infected with covid type viruses, there is a history of bat eating, and there are positive tests for covid19 antibodies going back to months before China detected them. Clearly this points to an Italian source sometime in the summer of 2019 or even before that, and everything else has been politics and propaganda.

[Daniel Cooper]

Wrong. Do you have trouble with reading comprehension? Or are so so intent on making it China that you ignore the simpler explanation, that it was never China to begin with, and Trump was wrong. His only reason for attacking China was that he had a disaster on his hands and had to blame someone. That was always his MO about everything.

 

 

I had no idea that Donald Trump was the only one operating under the assumption that the virus had originated in Wuhan.

 

Apparently he's done an excellent job of pulling the wool over the eyes of the rest of the world.

Edited by Daniel Cooper, 30 May 2021 - 01:18 AM.

[Hebbeh]

I had no idea that Donald Trump was the only one operating under the assumption that the virus had originated in Wuhan.

 

Apparently he's done an excellent job of pulling the wool over the eyes of the rest of the world.

 

 

Can you please elaborate (references and timeline would be appreciated) where you believe the China origination story first developed and who was discussing this connection prior to the Trump administration's theories.  From what I remember, news sources identified Italy early on and even China pointed this out early on.

[Daniel Cooper]

Can you please elaborate (references and timeline would be appreciated) where you believe the China origination story first developed and who was discussing this connection prior to the Trump administration's theories.  From what I remember, news sources identified Italy early on and even China pointed this out early on.

 
Why on earth would I ever do such a thing? It was the Chinese themselves that were selling the story that the virus had developed in the Wuhan wet market. That wasn't Donald Trump making those statements, it was Chinese government officials.  That was their initial attempt at explaining the virus. Surely our memories are not so poor that I have to go back and document what we all saw happen a little over a year ago.
 
And if the idea that the virus had escaped a Wuhan lab was nothing but Trump's pathetic attempt to detract from his own incompetent response, why on earth is Tony Fauci - Chief Medical Advisor to the Biden administration - making statements that he's not convinced that the virus developed naturally just last week?

 

I would urge people to take a deep breath, step back, and just look at things as dispassionately as possible.  Our political passions have no bearing on the facts of this situation.

 

 

 

 

[Daniel Cooper]

Wrong. Do you have trouble with reading comprehension? Or are so so intent on making it China that you ignore the simpler explanation, that it was never China to begin with, and Trump was wrong. His only reason for attacking China was that he had a disaster on his hands and had to blame someone. That was always his MO about everything.
 
From the first linked study:
 
 
As for bat eating, it would only take one bat and one old timer to start an epidemic. From the 2017 study there are bats in the area that are infected with covid type viruses, there is a history of bat eating, and there are positive tests for covid19 antibodies going back to months before China detected them. Clearly this points to an Italian source sometime in the summer of 2019 or even before that, and everything else has been politics and propaganda.

 
Does it make any sense if the virus originated in Milan in the summer, that the next place it showed up was Wuhan China and *not* any of the surrounding European counties till almost six months later?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[rodentman]

Over the last few weeks.  Many media outlets are pivoting on this issue... and the lab leak has gone from conspiracy to a 'hypothesis that needs to be investigated.'  Much of this was due to the extremely suspicious WHO/Wuhan investigation, and the lack of anything remotely resembling an intermediary host.  Also, there's been quite a few prominent scientists who have flipped on this issue.

 

Also, its worth noting that the lead author of the original lancet article saying a lab leak was impossible (Peter Daszak)  has been shown to have a huge conflict of interest with his connections with the wuhan lab and Dr. Shi.  Many of his colleagues no longer support his rigid zoological hypothesis.  Its also worth noting that Dr Shi did her gain of function research on the bat coronavirus in level 2 and 3 labs, NOT level 4 security labs.  Level 2 is about the same level as a dentists office.

 

Regardless of what the final conclusion may be, it's incredibly dangerous for people like Daszak to outsource gain of function experiments to China.  China has a horrible record with lab leaks, averaging about 1 per 1.3 years.  And we didnt just fund China, we also provided them with all the necessary tools, including the humanized mice which are key to this type of research.

[Mind]

Here is more evidence pointing toward an unnatural origin: https://www.dailymai...udy-claims.html

 

Don't forget the WHO also most likely covered-up the lab leak story....after first meeting with the CCP, of course. Remember the country of Taiwan - to their credit - did not believe the WHO at all. They saw human-to-human transmission right away and acted accordingly. The rest of the world listened to the WHO ("no human-to-human transmission") and paid the price.

 

Where are the investigations of the WHO and CDC?

Edited by Mind, 30 May 2021 - 09:14 AM.

[Turnbuckle]

 

Don't forget the WHO also most likely covered-up the lab leak story....after first meeting with the CCP, of course. 

 

And from the Daily Mail story --

 

The researchers, who concluded that COVID-19 'has no credible natural ancestor', also believe scientists reverse-engineered versions of the virus to cover up their tracks.

 

 

Oh come on. Eventually we have to say that these burgeoning conspiracy theories are as absurd as they seem. A theory must explain all the facts, and these fail at the very beginning -- that Italy saw the first cases of covid19 back in early September, and at that point it was already widespread, given the cases detected days later in blood samples from disparate regions. If you want these theories to work, you need to find cases in China that occurred before Italy's. But you won't be able to, for the simple reason that if it started so early in China, it would have spread far and wide by the end of the year. But it didn't, did it?

 

So how did it go from Italy to China? People focus on the lab there, but Wuhan is also a textile and fashion center, with some 1,600 fashion and apparel enterprises. And so is northern Italy, where the first case was detected. The Wuhan Fashion Week opened on November 5 of 2019, which attracted many from Europe, especially from northern Italy. The first cases in Wuhan occurred after that.

 

If there is one country that has suffered the most due to COVID-19 beyond China, it has to be the European country of Italy. But what is the connection between Italy and the novel coronavirus considering the deadly virus is reported to have originated from China? The answer is fashionably simple. The northern part of Italy has been a traditionally prosperous region due to the flourishing fashion and garment industry. Most of the big global brands like Gucci and Prada have their base in this region. With China offering one of the cheapest manufacturing options in the world, it came as little surprise that most of these fashion brands were working with China. A large number of these Italian fashion and garment houses had outsourced their manufacturing to Chinese labour, specifically in Wuhan...

https://timesofindia...ow/74694266.cms

 

 

That story's first line is bit off, as China didn't suffer that much from the virus. They had 91,000 cases, while Italy had 4.2 million. In fact, most of Europe was badly hit, while China and the countries around it had relatively minor infection rates. Ten to a thousand times lower than Italy's.

[pamojja]

If you want these theories to work, you need to find cases in China that occurred before Italy's. But you won't be able to, for the simple reason that if it started so early in China, it would have spread far and wide by the end of the year. But it didn't, did it?

 

They had 91,000 cases, while Italy had 4.2 million. In fact, most of Europe was badly hit, while China and the countries around it had relatively minor infection rates. Ten to a thousand times lower than Italy's.

 

But how many 'cases' Italy or Europe would have had, if they like China wouldn't have counted asymptomatic cases. And would we be able to see many more before cases in China, if they had an interrest in finding?
 

Edited by pamojja, 30 May 2021 - 12:09 PM.

[Turnbuckle]

 
Does it make any sense if the virus originated in Milan in the summer, that the next place it showed up was Wuhan China and *not* any of the surrounding European counties till almost six months later?

 

It makes perfect sense, given the heavy involvement of the Italian textile business in Wuhan, and the Wuhan Fashion Week that was followed weeks later by the first cases in China. As for other European countries, until retrospective studies are done, we won't know when the infections really started. It could have been months before it was recognized, as it was in Italy. Six months or more. If you go to the Wikipedia page on the Italian epidemic, you find this--

 

The virus was first confirmed to have spread to Italy on 31 January 2020.

 

 

And this for France--

 

The virus was confirmed to have reached France on 24 January 2020.

 

 

But clearly the pandemic was already well underway. Without retrospective study of blood samples, we would still be in the dark. Another line of evidence is the retrospective finding of covid19 in wastewater. In Italy this goes back well before that Jan. 31 date (which was in 2 Chinese tourists from Wuhan), and was already widespread--

 

Our results demonstrate that SARS-CoV-2 was already circulating in northern Italy at the end of 2019. Moreover, it was circulating in different geographic regions simultaneously, which changes our previous understanding of the geographical circulation of the virus in Italy.

https://www.ncbi.nlm...les/PMC7428442/

 

 

Edited by Turnbuckle, 30 May 2021 - 12:32 PM.

[Daniel Cooper]

It makes perfect sense, given the heavy involvement of the Italian textile business in Wuhan, and the Wuhan Fashion Week that was followed weeks later by the first cases in China. As for other European countries, until retrospective studies are done, we won't know when the infections really started. It could have been months before it was recognized, as it was in Italy. Six months or more. If you go to the Wikipedia page on the Italian epidemic, you find this--

 

 

Do you understand that you are comparing apples to oranges?

 

You're comparing the retrospective study of when covid showed up in Italy, to China's non-retrospective statement of when covid was first discovered clinically in Wuhan. And at that you're taking China's word on when they first encountered the virus.

 

These two evidences are not of the same type. What you'd need is a retrospective study of when covid first showed up in Wuhan, which you don't have and would have to question the veracity of if you did.

 

As for Italian textile involvement in China, there's also tons of travel between Milan and the rest of Europe. Milan is after all a favorite vacation destination for Europe and that fashion industry that creates travel between Milan and China also creates extensive travel within Europe.

 

You seem to consider the idea that covid might have been an escape from WIV as a fringe theory (a theory that Tony Fauci says he's now considering), yet your theory that it originated in Milan is hardly mainstream.

[Turnbuckle]

 

 

These two evidences are not of the same type. What you'd need is a retrospective study of when covid first showed up in Wuhan, which you don't have and would have to question the veracity of if you did.

 

 

 

Exactly. It would be ideal to have retrospective studies in China. But as I said before, if covid19 had begun in China before it did in Italy (prior to September), it would be far more widespread than it was and there would be no way China could have so few cases (or the rest of east Asia, for that matter). As it is, China is being blamed in the West because it recognized the disease before anyone else. But there isn't any evidence that it actually occurred there first. The evidence is that it occurred in Italy first. This is (or should be) a wet blanket on the burgeoning media speculation and the manufacturing of conspiracy theories.

[Daniel Cooper]

Exactly. It would be ideal to have retrospective studies in China. But as I said before, if covid19 had begun in China before it did in Italy (prior to September), it would be far more widespread than it was and there would be no way China could have so few cases (or the rest of east Asia, for that matter). As it is, China is being blamed in the West because it recognized the disease before anyone else. But there isn't any evidence that it actually occurred there first. The evidence is that it occurred in Italy first. This is (or should be) a wet blanket on the burgeoning media speculation and the manufacturing of conspiracy theories.

 

But this is just an assertion on your part.

[Turnbuckle]

But this is just an assertion on your part.

 

The earliest evidence for covid19 is in Italy. You cannot dispute that. 

[Hebbeh]

But how many 'cases' Italy or Europe would have had, if they like China wouldn't have counted asymptomatic cases. And would we be able to see many more before cases in China, if they had an interrest in finding?
 

 

Eastern Europe Has Been Hardest Hit By Covid: AFP Tally | Barron's (barrons.com)

 

The seven countries with the highest number of Covid-19 deaths in proportion to their overall population are in central and eastern Europe, according to an AFP tally at 1400 GMT on Friday.

 

[Dorian Grey]

So where exactly did that polybasic furin cleavage site come from?  

 

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Edited by Dorian Grey, 30 May 2021 - 03:32 PM.

[Daniel Cooper]

The earliest evidence for covid19 is in Italy. You cannot dispute that. 

 

China is currently reporting 91,072 cases of covid on a population of about 1.5 billion.

 

Finland is currently reporting 92,432 cases of covid on a population of about 5.5 million.

 

Are you quite certain that you want to cast your lot on the veracity of Chinese government reports on covid?

[Turnbuckle]

China is currently reporting 91,072 cases of covid on a population of about 1.5 billion.

 

Finland is currently reporting 92,432 cases of covid on a population of about 5.5 million.

 

Are you quite certain that you want to cast your lot on the veracity of Chinese government reports on covid?

 

 

Is doing great against covid supposed to be a negative? Everyone in East Asia is doing far better than the West. See here, or below. Rates are covid deaths per 100,000.

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Edited by Turnbuckle, 30 May 2021 - 09:56 PM.

[Daniel Cooper]

Is doing great against covid supposed to be a negative? Everyone in East Asia is doing far better than the West. See here, or below. Rates are covid deaths per 100,000.

 

Doing great against covid is fantastic if the numbers are real.

 

Shall I put you down in the "I believe China's reporting" column?

[Hebbeh]

Doing great against covid is fantastic if the numbers are real.

 

Shall I put you down in the "I believe China's reporting" column?

 

Are you insinuating that virtually all Asian countries are lying?  While virtually the rest of the world isn't?

[Daniel Cooper]

Are you insinuating that virtually all Asian countries are lying?  While virtually the rest of the world isn't?

 

You read the last couple of pages and that's what you got out of it? Honestly? Like, you're not trying to smear someone you disagree with as a racist or anything? You really read the whole exchange and and said to yourself "This guy's saying that all the Asian countries are lying!"?

 

No, I am specifically saying I question China's numbers.

[Hebbeh]

You read the last couple of pages and that's what you got out of it? Honestly? Like, you're not trying to smear someone you disagree with as a racist or anything? You really read the whole exchange and and said to yourself "This guy's saying that all the Asian countries are lying!"?

 

No, I am specifically saying I question China's numbers.

 

There was nothing racist or accusatory about my question.  It was an honest question in response to your reply to Turnbuckle's post stating "Is doing great against covid supposed to be a negative? Everyone in East Asia is doing far better than the West. See here, or below. Rates are covid deaths per 100,000." and your snarky reply avoiding the point by stating "Shall I put you down in the "I believe China's reporting" column?" and then you have the veracity to question my intent?  You seem to have a habit of changing the subject when conveniently avoiding the point being made.  And that's exactly what you just did to both Turnbuckle and me (by falsely accusing me).  I didn't smear anybody but ironically you did smear me.  And I haven't smeared anybody but the truth can be uncomfortable.

 

It's also ironic that you also try to manipulate other's (when you should be practicing what you preach) with posts such as:

 

I would urge people to take a deep breath, step back, and just look at things as dispassionately as possible.  Our political passions have no bearing on the facts of this situation.

[Turnbuckle]

Doing great against covid is fantastic if the numbers are real.

 

Shall I put you down in the "I believe China's reporting" column?

 

Do you believe Taiwan is lying (.05)? Or Australia (3.6)? Or Japan (8.6)? Or South Korea (3.6)? Or Vietnam (.04)? Laos (.7)? Malaysia (5.3)? Is it all one great conspiracy in East Asia to make Trump and the US (177) look bad? 

 

No. They aren't lying. Europe has numbers like ours because Italians traveled all over Europe, and we have numbers like Europe because Trump blocked Chinese travelers, but not European travelers. Sometimes racism will rise up and bite you.

Edited by Turnbuckle, 30 May 2021 - 11:49 PM.

[Daniel Cooper]

I notice Turnbuckle that you have pointedly not answered my question. 

 

Do you believe China's reported numbers.  We're not talking about Asia, we're talking about China. A closed, autocratic nation that has a history of lying to it's people and the rest of the world and who are at this very moment putting ethnic minorities in concentration camps. A country that would only allow in the WHO months after the pandemic was in full swing and which vetoed any Western observers that were not deeply in the pocket of the CCP.

 

So let me ask that question - one. more. time. 

 

Do you believe China's reporting on Covid?

[Turnbuckle]

I notice Turnbuckle that you have pointedly not answered my question. 

 

Do you believe China's reported numbers.  We're not talking about Asia, we're talking about China. A closed, autocratic nation that has a history of lying to it's people and the rest of the world and who are at this very moment putting ethnic minorities in concentration camps. A country that would only allow in the WHO months after the pandemic was in full swing and which vetoed any Western observers that were not deeply in the pocket of the CCP.

 

So let me ask that question - one. more. time. 

 

Do you believe China's reporting on Covid?

 

Yes, I believe China's numbers. They are in line with other countries in the region. Though they are not as good as Taiwan's numbers, which are 7 times better than the mainland's (and 3,500 times better than ours). Are they lying too? As for a country lying to its people, how is that not us? Bush and Cheney lied to us about Iraq, and in the subsequent war of aggression a million people died, millions more fled into exile, and we lost north of $4 trillion. Go back through our history and you will see a pattern of lying that makes one doubt if our government ever tells us the truth about anything. You obviously believe all the recent propaganda about China, which is being spread for one reason: to get the population behind another war. China's economic and military might passed us during the Trump years, and our only chance to knock them down is with a new Opium war, by which the UK knocked them down 200 years ago -- the last time China had the largest economy in the world.

Edited by Turnbuckle, 31 May 2021 - 10:44 AM.