And I think it would be difficult to say that nationalism declined between 1870 and 1914. After all, we get the formation of the German Empire in 1871 which certainly did not lessen nationalistic sentiments in that part of the world. And I don't think Russian nationalism ever went away. It was just satiated by the empire it managed to assemble in the Soviet Union.
Certain factors help create globalism. In the case of the period of 1870 to 1914, first of all, the telegraph arrived, which was in its day every bit as revolutionary as the Internet has been for our generation. Prior to the telegraph, information only travelled at the speed of a horse or a steam train. But the telegraph made communications instantaneous. This communications technology of the telegraph helped galvanise a wider global community.
Then secondly gold became accepted as the international standard monetary exchange. You need an agreed standard of money to conduct global business.
And finally, immigration laws were relaxed, allowing masses of people to move to other countries as economic migrants. This opened up the borders of nations, and allowed free flow of people.
My understanding is that three factors underpinned the 1870 to 1914 period of globalisation.
But the pendulum tends to swing back, and in 1914 governments started becoming protectionist, turning against global trade (just as we have seen in the Trump presidency, and with Brexit, showing how history can repeat itself).
Also resentment started building up by 1914, as global capitalism benefited some people, but left many others behind (again, just like in today's world, were the middle classes and the super-rich benefit from global trade and a globalised economy, but the Western working classes get a raw deal — which of course Trump has picked up on in order to get the working class vote, and so have the Conservative Party in the UK picked up on this working class dissatisfaction).
For the last 5 years or so, I have felt that the pendulum has just started to swing back to protectionism, to right wing conservatism, and to countries putting themselves first. The pendulum is presently at the extreme end of global liberalism, but I think it is starting to turn back.
And I think we may see nations start to use their military muscle more. Russia has a long term goal to re-instate the Soviet Empire, and it does not mind sacrificing the lives of millions of its people to achieve its military goals. Russia is now spending 6% of its GDP on the military. So it's gearing up for a long war, and may become a militarised nation.
China wants to bring Taiwan back into the fold, so we could see some military action there. This might then bring in the US and other Western nations to come to defend Taiwan, bringing the US into armed conflict with China. China may then team up with Russia, just out of mutual self interest, and then you start getting the dominoes falling into place for a world war.
Edited by Hip, 24 January 2024 - 08:12 AM.