505 replies to this topic

[advancedatheist]

http://www.cbsnews.c...D88PMHLG0.shtml

Official: OPEC Has Reached Output Limit


ALGIERS, Algeria, Mar. 12, 2005


(AP) OPEC has reached its production limit, and trying to stretch output by one million barrels per day isn't likely to lower oil prices, Algeria's minister for energy and mines said.

Chakib Khalil said prices were high because of world economic growth _ particularly in the United States and China. Algeria is one of the 11 members of the Organization for Petroleum Exporting Countries.

"OPEC has reached its production limits. It doesn't have much production capacity," he said at the opening of an industrial plant in the western town of Arzew, according to newspaper reports on Saturday.

"If it came to a crunch, it has capacity for one million barrels (more per day), and I don't think a production increase would influence the barrel price," he told reporters on the sidelines of the ceremony.

[advancedatheist]

The Hubbert Denial propaganda machine is still at work:

http://www.latimes.c...ack=3&cset=true

March 13, 2005 

James Flanigan:

A Priceless Resource: Human Nature
 
It's hard to know which is soaring more these days — oil prices or the rhetoric about oil prices.

... Today, oil companies are fattening budgets for exploration and development in Russia, Africa, Central Asia and the deep waters of the Gulf of Mexico. Meanwhile, Congress is moving closer toward allowing oil drilling in Alaska's Arctic National Wildlife Refuge.

"There's 6 [billion] to 15 billion barrels in there," notes Lawrence Goldstein, president of the Petroleum Industry Research Foundation, a New York energy economics firm.

It pisses me off when these Denial pieces throw out context-free numbers like that. Goldstein's figure sounds colossal, until you realize that the world burns 1 billion barrels of oil every 11-12 days. Do the math from BP's own statistics for world oil production:

http://www.bp.com/li...ection_2004.pdf

[kevin]

Rather than sit idly by and let oil prices erode their standard of living, people will react and make changes in the way they do things. Industrial practices, technology, even our lifestyle — all of these will inevitably evolve, tempering the surge in petroleum prices.

My dad was one of eleven kids, 7 boys and 4 girls and one thing he taught me that you learn early in that situation is that piling your plate high while you had the chance was the best strategy for not going hungry.

It will be interesting to watch countries scramble for positioning.

Today's forecasts that China will consume more and more oil — simply because it has done so in recent years — are undoubtedly wide of the mark.

This man is obviously talking about a different country other than the China we know. China has demonstrated over and over that they have little regard for the nice trend projections of Western economists and are more concerned with advancing their collective benefit than the average westerner is for their own. Simply increasing consumption by a gallon of oil per capita in Indo-China will set this statement straight. It is really naieve and misleading to imply that these countries are going to, or should, stand back and watch the wealthy countries get wealthier while they settle for a medieval quality of life and remain subject to their benificence after having a taste of what is possible. Not going to happen.

This is one of the most idiotic and transparently flailing articles I've read to date with a grasping tone that is more likely to reinforce the notion that the "end is near' than otherwise.

[free]

Excuse me, but what planet does this James Flanigan thinks he lives on?????

(Earth to Flanigan...earth to Flanigan...) [lol]

[free]

This man is obviously talking about a different country other than the China we know.  China has demonstrated over and over that they have little regard for the nice trend projections of Western economists and are more concerned with advancing their collective benefit than the average westerner is for their own.  Simply increasing consumption by a gallon of oil per capita in Indo-China will set this statement straight.  It is really naieve and misleading  to imply that these countries are going to, or should, stand back and watch the wealthy countries get wealthier while they settle for a medieval quality of life and remain subject to their benificence after having a taste of what is possible.  Not going to happen.

This is one of the most idiotic and transparently flailing articles I've read to date with a grasping tone that is more likely to reinforce the notion that the "end is near' than otherwise.

Got that right... [thumb]

[advancedatheist]

The U.S. could be in a situation like this by the end of the decade because of our declining natural gas supplies:

http://www.money.tel...xfrontcity.html

Monday 14 March 2005

UK to 'run out of gas if cold snap continues'

By Andrew Murray-Watson (Filed: 13/03/2005)

Britain will start to run out of gas within days if the country suffers another cold snap this week, leading to widespread shutdown of industry and soaring energy prices for consumers.

The UK's small gas storage facilities have been severely depleted over the past month, as consumers have turned up their central heating to combat freezing temperatures. The UK relies on strategic reserves of gas at times of very cold weather as the diminishing supply from the North Sea can no longer meet demand.

The supply situation is now so critical that National Grid Transco, the company that distributes gas throughout the UK, is prepared to cut off gas from industrial users to preserve supplies for domestic users if the weather deteriorates.

http://www.fibre2fas...p?News_id=13462

UK : Rising gas prices cause chemical production shut down - says CIA

9th March 2005

High and volatile UK gas prices reached new levels over the last few days and have left some chemical companies no choice but to shut down operations. The Chemical Industries Association (CIA) now calls upon the DTI and OFGEM to take immediate, urgent action to resolve the situation before sites are closed down and companies make the decision not to manufacture in the UK.

The gas system operator, Transco, stated at a meeting today that there is ample gas to meet demand. Judith Hackitt, Director General of CIA, responded by saying, “There appears to be no rational explanation for the market’s behaviour. Our earlier calls for greater transparency and better explanation of the market are now truly urgent. These price hikes go way beyond what can be explained by a temporary spell of cold weather.”

The CIA gave evidence at a recent Trade and Industry Committee Inquiry that set out to investigate the high forward gas prices observed in October 2004. In the evidence received, it was reported that many companies had amended their contract strategies to be linked to spot prices – but this is now hurting too.

Following this contract strategy has meant that chemical companies have only two options: to pay £1 per therm (thermal unit) or close down operations.

The UK chemical industry can no longer absorb these extremely high and volatile gas prices, which have a knock-on impact to electricity costs. Current gas prices are seriously damaging UK industry competitiveness and in many energy intensive sectors, short-term stops may lead to longer-term job losses. If gas prices remain at this level the economic impact could be severe.

[advancedatheist]

The Peak Oil verification is coming thick and fast these days:

http://www.salon.com...rold/print.html

Running on empty

The leading energy analysts who foretold Enron's demise have an alarming new claim: The world's major oil companies are almost tapped out.

- - - - - - - - - - - -
By Robert Bryce



March 15, 2005  |  Four years ago, the analysts at John S. Herold Inc. were the first to call bullshit on Enron. On Feb. 21, 2001, three Herold analysts issued a report that said Enron's profit margins were shriveling, the company had too few hard assets, and its stock price was way too high. Less than ten months later, Enron filed for bankruptcy.

Today, the analysts at Herold -- a research-only firm that issues valuations on several hundred publicly traded energy companies -- are making predictions even bolder than their call on Enron. They have begun estimating when each of the world's biggest energy companies will peak in its ability to produce oil and gas. Herold's work shows that the best minds in the energy industry are accepting the reality that the globe is reaching (or has already reached) the limit of its own ability to produce ever increasing amounts of oil.

Many analysts have estimated when the earth will reach its peak oil production. Others have done estimates on when individual countries will hit their peaks. Herold is the first Wall Street firm to predict when specific energy companies will hit their peaks.

Since last fall, Herold has done peak estimates on about two dozen oil companies. Herold believes that the French oil company, Total S.A., will reach its peak production in 2007. Herold expects 2008 to be critical, with Exxon Mobil Corp., ConocoPhillips Co., BP, Royal Dutch/Shell Group, and the Italian producer, Eni S.p.A., all hitting their peaks. In 2009, Herold expects ChevronTexaco Corp. to peak. In Herold's view, each of the world's seven largest publicly traded oil companies will begin seeing production declines within the next 48 months or so.

[lightowl]

There we have it. OPEC finally admits they have lost control of oil prices.

http://msnbc.msn.com/id/7190109/

OPEC says it's lost control of oil prices
Cartel producers say they can't keep up with strong global demand

"There is not much we can do,” Algerian Oil Minister Chakib Khelil told reporters Tuesday in Isfahan, Iran, the site of Wednesday’s meeting.

"OPEC has done all it can do.” Qatar Oil Minister Abdullah al-Attiyah said. “This is out of the control of OPEC."

[Lazarus Long]

The arguments over the Free Market and Oil pricing are really even more specious than the apocryphal theist debates over how many angels can dance on a pin.

There is no free market, rumors of its existence are just more myth making in motion.

OPEC Agrees More Output to Control Prices

OPEC OKs 500K Barrel Daily Output Boost

Senate Votes for Oil Drilling in Alaskan Refuge

Even illegal drug pushers engage in *loss leading* (sampling and discounting) in order to ensure their markets stay addicted and not try too hard to wean themselves from their dependence on the *product*.

IMHO energy use in an economy predicated on Conspicuous Consumerism is simply another expression of OCD and the promotion of *substance dependence* for profiteering.

[lightowl]

There is no free market, rumors of its existence are just more myth making in motion.

I agree with you that there has not been a free market on oil for a very long time if ever. But when the major regulators of prices say they "have lost control over oil prices" and "they can't keep up with strong global demand" what is this then supposed to mean? Do we take this as a straight lie? I am not making arguments for any case, I am just trying to figure out what is going on. I have no interest in myth making. I am just stating my current belief that the supply/demand gap is taking over prices and there is not enough spare capacity any more to control it. Please explain to me why this is myth making. Is there really enough capacity and are they just hiding it to make more money? If you know the truth please tell it to me.

EDIT: Corrected some spelling.

Edited by lightowl, 16 March 2005 - 06:45 PM.

[advancedatheist]

http://news.ft.com/c...000e2511c8.html

World's thirst for oil makes falling output worse

By Javier Blas
Published: March 15 2005 19:12 | Last updated: March 15 2005 19:12

The Cantarell oil field, in the shallow waters of Campeche Bay, is regarded by Mexicans as their crown jewel. It is the second largest oil field in the world by production, behind Saudi Arabia's mammoth Ghawar oil field, pumping 2.2m barrels a day, the same amount as all the Kuwaiti fields together.

For that reason, Mexicans were recently dismayed when Petróleos Mexicanos, the state oil company, said that the field's production would decline this year, signalling a trend towards its depletion.

Cantarell's difficulties are not unique. Other mature oil provinces outside the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries, such as the North Sea and Alaska, are now suffering huge yearly declines, constraining the world's supply of oil and helping to push up prices.

Last year's surge in oil prices was driven by the biggest yearly increase in demand since 1976. But analysts say today's high prices are the result of strong demand and a significant slowdown on oil supply growth from non-Opec countries. Barclays Capital estimates that non-Opec supply outside the former Soviet Union rose by 700,000 a year between 1990 and 2000. But since then growth had been roughly flat every year.

This slower increase in non-Opec supply is boosting demand for the cartel's oil, reducing Opec's already low spare capacity. The market takes the reduction of this cushion against unexpected shocks as a bullish signal, sending prices higher.

"We got a lot of new capacity additions, but the problem is when you net those with the declines in mature regions, you got a flat line," said Paul Horsnell of Barclays Capital. Economists at PFC Energy add: "A number of large and long- anticipated supply projects are coming on stream in 2005. However, these projects will only offset . . . declining rates in mature regions and slowing Russia growth."

[jaydfox]

March 13, 2005 

James Flanigan:

A Priceless Resource: Human Nature
 
It's hard to know which is soaring more these days — oil prices or the rhetoric about oil prices.

... Today, oil companies are fattening budgets for exploration and development in Russia, Africa, Central Asia and the deep waters of the Gulf of Mexico. Meanwhile, Congress is moving closer toward allowing oil drilling in Alaska's Arctic National Wildlife Refuge.

"There's 6 [billion] to 15 billion barrels in there," notes Lawrence Goldstein, president of the Petroleum Industry Research Foundation, a New York energy economics firm.

It pisses me off when these Denial pieces throw out context-free numbers like that. Goldstein's figure sounds colossal, until you realize that the world burns 1 billion barrels of oil every 11-12 days. Do the math from BP's own statistics for world oil production:

11-12 days for a billion barrels... I've seen figures putting current global consumption of oil at around 100 million barrels per day or less. 6 to 15 billion barrels would take about two to five months at that rate... Seems to match the 11-12 days per billion.


By the way, did anyone see the Republican Senator (didn't catch her name) going on about how the amount of oil in the Alaskan reserve is sooooo much?

I'll paraphrase her, unless someone can find her exact quote and post it. I saw this on the evening news:

(paraphrased)

There is enough oil in the Alaskan Reserve to replace all our imports from Saudi Arabia for twenty-five years. Twenty-five years. Twenty-five years!

She was really emphasizing that 25 years things, made it sound so impressive, like it was soooooooo much oil that we'd be stupid not to go after it, especially since, by replacing so much Middle Eastern oil, we'd be preventing another Iraq-like war in the future, and perhaps solving all our foreign policy problems, and maybe even getting Saudi Arabia to democratize, and Iran to give up their nukes, and North Korea too, and maybe while we're at it, Al Qaeda might just give up and turn themselves in...

To which I want to respond:

The United States only imports about half—60%—of its oil, and of the 60% that's imported, only about 12% of it is imported from the Persian Gulf region (the majority is imported from Canada, Mexico, Venezuela, etc.—the Western Hemisphere), and of the 12% of 60% of our oil that's imported, only about 70% comes from Saudi Arabia.

All told, only about 5% of the oil used in the United states comes from Saudi Arabia. So I'll assume for a moment that her 25 year figure was even remotely accurate, and proceed to make my own repetitive demonstration.

The amount of oil in the Alaskan reserve is enough to replace all our oil imports for two and a half years. Two and a half years. Two and a half years. Two and a half... years!

In fact, the amount of oil in the Alaskan reserve is enough to replace all our oil needs for one and a half years. One and a half years. One and a half years. One and a half... years!

But let us not forget, my fellow Americans—and all you whining Democrats and environmentalists who oppose the destruction of these pristine lands—that the amount of oil in the Alaskan reserve is enough to replace all the oil consumed worldwide for four months. Four months. Four months! That's right, four... months! So you see, it is imperative that we proceed with the raping of the Alaskan reserve, without delay.

[advancedatheist]

http://www.reuters.c...storyID=7937094

US Airlines Face Billions in Extra Fuel Costs

Thu Mar 17, 2005 03:25 PM ET

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. airlines face billions of dollars in extra costs from soaring fuel prices, with American Airlines, Delta Air Lines and Continental Airlines bearing the brunt of the rise, regulatory filings show.

The incessant climb in fuel prices, which hit a record on Thursday, could threaten to push more major carriers into bankruptcy, adding to the woes of the industry which suffered some $10 billion in losses last year.

[advancedatheist]

http://english.aljaz...7EFD8144333.htm

Energy body wants brakes on fuel consumption

By  Adam Porter in Perpignan, France

Thursday 24 March 2005, 18:09 Makka Time, 15:09 GMT 

The International Energy Agency is to propose drastic cutbacks in car use to halt continuing oil-supply problems. Those cutbacks include anything from car-pooling to outright police-enforced driving bans for citizens.

Fuel "emergency supply disruptions and price shocks" - in other words, shortages - could be met by governments. Not only can governments save fuel by implementing some of the measures suggested, but in doing so they can also shortcut market economics.

An advance briefing of the report, titled Saving Oil in a Hurry: Measures for Rapid Demand Restraint in Transport, states this succinctly.

"Why should governments intervene to cut oil demand during a supply disruption or price surge? One obvious reason is to conserve fuel that might be in short supply.

"But perhaps more importantly, a rapid demand response (especially if coordinated across IEA countries) can send a strong market signal."

The report goes on to suggest a whole series of measures that could be used to cut back on fuel consumption. They are cutting public-transport costs by a certain amount to increase its usage while simultaneously dissuading car use.

Sweeping proposals

Then more radically the idea of going further and cutting public-transport costs by 100%, making them free to use. Car-pooling, telecommuting and even corrections to tyre pressures are also suggested.

But the most hardline emergency proposals come in the form of drastic speed restrictions and compulsory driving bans. Bans could be one day in every 10 (10%) or more stringently on cars with odd or even number plates. They would be banned from the roads on corresponding odd or even days of the month (50%).

You can read the report on the International Energy Agency's Website:

http://www.iea.org/t.../background.pdf

[advancedatheist]

http://news.moneycen...0331&ID=4338643

Goldman Sachs: Oil Could Spike to $105

March 31, 2005 10:39:00 AM ET

LONDON (Reuters) - Oil markets have entered a ``super-spike'' period that could see 1970's-style price surges as high as $105 a barrel, investment bank Goldman Sachs said in a research report.

Goldman's Global Investment Research note also raised the bank's 2005 and 2006 New York Mercantile Exchange crude price forecasts to $50 and $55 respectively, from $41 and $40.

These forecasts sit at the top of a table of predictions from 25 analysts, consultants and government bodies surveyed by Reuters.

``We believe oil markets may have entered the early stages of what we have referred to as a ``super spike'' period -- a multi-year trading band of oil prices high enough to meaningfully reduce energy consumption and recreate a spare capacity cushion only after which will lower energy prices return,'' Goldman's analysts wrote.

The analysts said resilient demand had led them to revise their super-spike range to $50-$105 per barrel from $50-$80 previously, noting strength in oil demand and economic growth in the United States and China especially.

[advancedatheist]

http://money.cnn.com....reut/index.htm

Shell pumps twice as much as it finds

But similar to industry trend where private oil companies can't locate large future reserves.
March 31, 2005: 7:34 AM EST

LONDON (Reuters) - Oil major Royal Dutch/Shell replaced less than half the oil it pumped last year with new finds, according to revised reserves figures published Thursday.

Shell said its proved reserves stood at 11.9 billion barrels of oil equivalent (boe) at the end of 2004, equal to less than nine years' production at average 2004 rates, excluding the Athabasca oil sands reserves, which it put at 0.6 billion boe.

While the figures were broadly in line with previous guidance, they will cement many investors' worries that Shell has lost its knack of finding oil, following a reserves over-booking scandal last year that led the company to downgrade around a quarter of its oil and gas reserves.

[advancedatheist]

http://www.tass.ru/e...91010&PageNum=0

IEA warns against possible acute oil shortage

01.04.2005, 11.51

PARIS, April 1 (Itar-Tass) -- The International Energy Agency (IEA) has come to the conclusion that the world economy is facing a serious threat of acute oil shortage. IEA experts have prepared a special report, due to be published within a few weeks, in which they warn the key oil consuming countries about the need for immediately taking tough energy-saving measures, if the daily oil supply to the world market is reduced by one to two million barrels.

The measures, suggested by IEA, include the reduction of a working week, a ban on using privately owned vehicles, the introduction of a 90-kilometre speed limit, the reduction of public transport fare and the encouragement of staff members to work at home, using Internet.

The conclusions drawn by the IEA experts reflect their growing concern over the macroeconomic dynamics taking shape on the world oil market. According to the information of Itar-Tass, the latest studies show that oil shortage will become more and more acute within the coming few months.

As a result of it, IEA insists now on the changing of one of its basic principles. Its founding documents say that tough energy-saving measures should be taken by oil consuming countries, if oil deliveries to the world market are reduced by 7 per cent, which is now equal to six million barrels a day. IEA is going to reduce the amount to one or two million barrels.

The report, prepared by IEA, will be submitted for discussion at a meeting of ministers of energy of the IEA member countries, which will be held next month.

[kevin]

Link: http://www.theage.co...l?oneclick=true

---

Out of petrol
By Christopher Kremmer
April 2, 2005

When Labor backbencher Andrew McNamara rose from his seat in the Queensland Parliament in February to state a few home truths about falling world oil supplies, he expected, at most, a few catcalls from the Opposition benches.

Instead, the speech by the provincial solicitor from Hervey Bay, north of Brisbane, "bounced around the world".

Although his words were little reported elsewhere in Australia, McNamara was inundated with congratulatory emails from all corners of the globe for addressing an issue that previously might have seen him labelled as a flat-earther.

The issue is Peak Oil, the theory that the world will face a sudden, cataclysmic decline in supplies after global production peaks, sometime in the next 20 years.

According to McNamara, who believes it's going to happen sooner rather than later, the direct impact on our lives will be greater than terrorism, global warming or bird flu.

"The challenges we face after Peak Oil will require localised food production and industry in a way not seen for 100 years," he says. "Local rail lines and fishing fleets will be vital to regional communities. Self-contained communities living close to work, farms, services and schools will not be merely desirable; they will be essential."

[Mind]

The measures, suggested by IEA, include the reduction of a working week

I'm all for that.

[advancedatheist]

Out of petrol
By Christopher Kremmer
April 2, 2005

When Labor backbencher Andrew McNamara rose from his seat in the Queensland Parliament in February to state a few home truths about falling world oil supplies, he expected, at most, a few catcalls from the Opposition benches.

Instead, the speech by the provincial solicitor from Hervey Bay, north of Brisbane, "bounced around the world".

Oil extraction in Australia happens to be falling surprisingly fast:

http://www.financial.../2005/0203.html

Oil Crisis Down Under
by Bill Powers, Editor
Canadian Energy Viewpoint
February 3, 2005


While Australia’s natural resource-based economy has enjoyed tremendous growth along with the rebound in commodity prices worldwide, the country’s oil production continues to decline at a staggering pace. The country’s production peaked at 805,000 barrels of oil per day (bopd) in 2000 and only averaged 490,000 bopd in the first 10 months of 2004 (Source: US Department of Energy).

Frankly, cryonicists living in Australia who expect to get cryosuspended in an American cryonics facility are probably screwed, unless they relocate to either the U.S. or Canada (or even Mexico, if they are desperate enough) in a matter of months. When oil approaches the "super spike" price of $105 a barrel predicted by those environmentalist neo-Malthusian Luddites at Goldman Sachs, three things are likely to happen to civilian aviation:

(1) Most airlines are going to ground their fleets and declare bankruptcy.

(2) A few planes (maybe Lear jets and like) will still be available to super-wealthy passengers, but ordinary middle-class people will be priced out of the market.

(3) Governments are going to step in to secure the jet fuel still available for their purposes.

Some combination of the above three events will leave cryonicists living outside of North America stranded.

[Lazarus Long]

Oil extraction in Australia happens to be falling surprisingly fast:

Yeah but Mel Gibson found Jesus and moved to Hollywood so they are just going to have to find a new "Mad Max" to play Road Warrior.

[antilithium]

Is it me or is this a bad omen.



[glasses]

Edited by antilithium, 07 April 2005 - 06:29 PM.

[kevin]

Some humourous canaries in a coal mine..

[jaydfox]

Frankly, cryonicists living in Australia who expect to get cryosuspended in an American cryonics facility are probably screwed, unless they relocate to either the U.S. or Canada (or even Mexico, if they are desperate enough) in a matter of months. When oil approaches the "super spike" price of $105 a barrel predicted by those environmentalist neo-Malthusian Luddites at Goldman Sachs... events will leave cryonicists living outside of North America stranded

What, you never heard of boats?

Heh. Seriously, though, I doubt they'll all declare bankruptcy. Maybe most of them, but air travel won't shut down altogether... That would free up too much oil.

People will just have to get used to 1980's airfare prices... Or at least, my childhood memory of airfare back in the day had it much higher than today. Expect air travel rates to stop the insane rising they've experienced in the last few decades.

[Mind]

Thanks for posting the cartoons Kevin. It is a good indication that people are already noticing tight gas supplies (and the price isn't even 60 dollars a barrel!). The one with oil tanker is a bit disturbing though. The psycology represented there was also on a recent national newscast. A news anchor on "World News Now" (ABC) was interviewing an economist and they were talking about high oil prices and where the prices might go in the future. The economist said oil could go up to 100 a barrel. The stupid news anchor then asked "At what point do you think Congress will start investigating the oil companies?" AARRGGGHHH!!! I almost pulled my hair out. The popular thing to do nowadays is blame big corporations for every ill in the world, and it was reflexive for this news anchor also. The idiots in congress will probably hold hearings for months on end, catch some poor CFO who made a small accounting mistake, and hang him, then say "look at all the good we have done." Meanwhile, the oil price will continue to rise.

The best bet is to take matters into our own hands, find the energy solutions we each need to prosper, and share them. The less the government gets involved the better.

[jaydfox]

The stupid news anchor then asked "At what point do you think Congress will start investigating the oil companies?"

So, um, out of curiosity, what did the economist say?

[advancedatheist]

http://www.nzherald....jectID=10119220

BP says oil fields declining

07.04.05 1.00pm

NEW ORLEANS - Oil company BP's existing oil and gas fields are posting production declines of about 3 per cent, Tony Hayward, the company's chief executive for exploration and production, said on Wednesday.

"That piece of the portfolio as a whole is declining around 3 per cent," he told an energy conference.

The company's key profit centers, which exclude its stake in Russian TNK-BP and new output from Azerbaijan, are expected to produce about 2 million barrels of oil equivalent per day in 2005 and are showing different decline rates, he said.

"Alaska is mostly flat; the North Sea is declining somewhere between 6 and 8 per cent; and our South America business is growing, but taken as sub-segment of E&P, it's declining around 8 per cent," he said.

[advancedatheist]

This is too good to pass up:

http://business.scot...fm?id=413752005

Are we re-entering the dark ages?


JOHN BOWKER
SENIOR CITY CORRESPONDENT

ENERGY is one talking point Labour is hoping will not rear its head during the next couple of weeks. A full-blown power failure would be a disaster for the government’s credibility - and with it the chances of an historic third term.

Like the MG Rover debacle, blackouts similar to those in the United States, Italy and the UK two years ago would be yet another example of complacency by this government. It might be why we are heading for the ballots in May; having negotiated the winter months, a spring election should make it easy to keep the lights on.

However, a report just out from PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) says we are about to be plunged into darkness again - and not just in the UK. Worldwide, populations are suffering from poor levels of energy investment and ageing power plants. The research calculates that about $12.7 trillion (£6.7tn) of investment, greater than the entire US annual economic output, is understood to be needed globally to meet an expected doubling in electricity consumption through 2030. That total raises the bar above the estimated $10tn electricity spend agreed by the International Energy Agency (IEA) for the same period.

"Blackouts are expected to become more frequent," the report damningly concludes. "Two-thirds of utility respondents believe the likelihood of blackouts will increase or remain the same, while only a quarter think it will reduce." The findings are based on a survey of 119 investors and utilities executives in 36 countries.

Compare this with the prediction in Richard C. Duncan's 2000 paper, THE PEAK OF WORLD OIL PRODUCTION AND THE ROAD TO THE OLDUVAI GORGE:

The Olduvai theory, to review, states that the life expectancy of Industrial Civilization is less than or equal to one hundred years, as measured by the world average energy production person per year: ê = E/(Pop). Industrial Civilization, defined herein, began in 1930 and is predicted to end on or before the year 2030. Our main goals for this section are threefold: (1) to discuss the Olduvai theory from 1930 to 2030, (2) to identify the important energy events during this time, and (3) to stress that Industrial Civilization = Electrical Civilization = the 'modern way of life.' Figure 4 depicts the Olduvai theory.



Figure 4. The Olduvai Theory: 1930-2030

Notes: (1) 1930 => Industrial Civilization began when (ê) reached 30% of its peak value. (2) 1979 => ê reached its peak value of 11.15 boe/c. (3) 1999 => The end of cheap oil. (4) 2000 => Start of the "Jerusalem Jihad". (5) 2006 => Predicted peak of world oil production (Figure 1, this paper). (6) 2008 => The OPEC crossover event (Figure 1). (7) 2012 => Permanent blackouts occur worldwide. (8) 2030 => Industrial Civilization ends when ê falls to its 1930 value. (9) Observe that there are three intervals of decline in the Olduvai schema: slope, slide and cliff — each steeper than the previous. (10) The small cartoons stress that electricity is the essential end-use energy for Industrial Civilization.

Figure 4 shows the complete Olduvai curve from 1930 to 2030. Historic data appears from 1930 to 1999 and hypothetical values from 2000 to 2030. These 100 years are labeled "Industrial Civilization." The curve and the events together constitute the "Olduvai schema." Observe that the overall curve has a pulse-like waveform — namely overshoot and collapse. Eight key energy events define the Olduvai schema.

Eight Events: The 1st event in 1930 (see Note 1, Figure 4) marks the beginning of Industrial Civilization when ê reached 3.32 boe/c. This is the "leading 30% point", a standard way to define the duration of a pulse. The 2nd event in 1979 (Note 2) marks the all-time peak of world energy production per capita when ê reached 11.15 boe/c. The 3rd event in 1999 (Note 3) marks the end of cheap oil. The 4th event on September 28, 2000 (Note 4) marks the eruption of violence in the Middle East — i.e. the "Jerusalem Jihad". Moreover, the "JJ" marks the end of the Olduvai "slope" wherein ê declined at 0.33 %/year from 1979 to 1999.

Next in Figure 4 we come the future intervals in the Olduvai schema. The Olduvai "slide", the first of the future intervals, begins in 2000 with the escalating warfare in the Middle East. The 5th event in 2006 (Note 5) marks the all-time peak of world oil production (Figure 1, this paper). The 6th event in 2008 (Note 6) marks the OPEC crossover event when the 11 OPEC nations produce 51% of the world's oil and control nearly 100% of the world's oil exports. The year 2011 marks the end of the Olduvai slide, wherein ê declines at 0.67 %/year from 2000 to 2011.

The "cliff" is the final interval in the Olduvai schema. It begins with the 7th event in 2012 (Note 7) when an epidemic of permanent blackouts spreads worldwide, i.e. first there are waves of brownouts and temporary blackouts, then finally the electric power networks themselves expire. The 8th event in 2030 (Note 8) marks the fall of world energy production (use) per capita to the 1930 level (Figure 4). This is the lagging 30% point when Industrial Civilization has become history. The average rate of decline of ê is 5.44 %/year from 2012 to 2030.

[wraith]

NIce to see you post again. (well, it's always scary news, but at least it's interesting).

How do you think a place like Quebec will fare in the 'slide' and 'cliff' phases?