In reviewing a separate issue I recently came across this article linking the UN report we've already mentioned with the specific concern of our forum and this thread. I think the concerns of the article are generally valid. However I think that the outcome suggested by the conclusion is vague and unreliable. It will be subject to a rapidly changing set of imperatives for our social and individual will but to do so requires focus not denial of the all too valid elements of the problem.
Many values that are now held "sacred and dear" may be seen as contributing to the outcome we least desire. Interestingly the conclusion of 9 bln by 2300 seems to imply flat growth in relation to the same report's conclusion that we will reach that number by the mid to late period of the present century and 36 billion would imply all together new basis for sustainable economy and a very different world from any recognizable to those alive today.
Another thing I suggest needs to be carefully examined is the treatment of statistics. Remember the old adage; "statistics don't lie, people lie with statistics"?
Well in the last three paragraphs of the conclusion a close examination will reveal a misleading set of relationships as the variables being discussed are switched by shifting pronoun use and the conclusions are then actually wrong as implied but correct if one looks back to the actual "quantifier" being referenced by the vague use of pronouns.
This is a very common technique that is often seen in political debate. I question if it is always intentional or more commonly a product of over zealous weak minded people that end up talking too fast for their own good. It is however most common the conclusions are questionable that we must also examine the methods by which those conclusions are achieved. You see the last paragraph is wrong if you think it means that the
population SIZE. It is a reference to
percent of world population and has been presented as a nonsequitor.
Though on the low end of growth it shows a decline in population in Latin America, in fact the world to 2.3 billion by 2300. Any guesses how this process will occur if we are successful at providing longevity tech to people ahead of the suggested rate of advancement implied by the article?
The graphic supplied in the same article illustrates my point. You see population in Latin America/Caribbean will increase four fold on the high end (only slightly in respect to flat growth) but remain stable as a percent of global population (and this is after migration north and elsewhere is accounted for.) Also if the graph implying a peak of around 8 billion (the low end projection in green) is correct then the precipitous depopulation curve cannot be accounted for by natural attrition, but only massive migrations or death, especially if by then we have already extended many people's life expectancy.
I have the same disdain for all parties that attempt manipulations of media and information regardless of whether I agree with their conclusions. There is no longer any value to the patronizing attitude of leaders that will not speak plain truths to their people. These ends no matter how "noble in mind" never fully justify the means. And the danger of the rejection of a good idea for discovery of deceit is too powerful a standard to be ignored and directly parallels the problem in science of investigators and researchers that falsify values to support their theoretical claims. Again a remarkable parallel between the importance of science and the psychology of society, and another element of the physics of politics.
Regardless, any projection this far into the future is inherently suspect but to those that intend to live so long it begs inclusion in our database and careful analysis. Particularly since it is quite obvious that there will be an effort made to blame groups like us for the "one quarter" extra child per family that skews the growth trend to the dangerously large side.
LL/kxs
http://story.news.ya...n_population_dc
The human race could have 9 billion people by 2300, Japanese will live to 108, and Africa's population will explode while Europeans could dwindle, the United Nations (news - web sites) predicted on Tuesday. In its first projection of the world's population in the next three centuries, the U.N. Population Division forecast the rise to about 9 billion from the current 6.3 billion people, providing the trend toward smaller families continues. (Reuters Graphic)
UN Predicts 9 Bln People by 2300, Many of Them Old Tue Dec 9, 6:44 PM ET Science - Reuters
By Evelyn Leopold
UNITED NATIONS (Reuters) - The human race could have 9 billion people by 2300, Japanese will live to 108, and Africa's population will explode while Europeans could dwindle, the United Nations (
news -
web sites) predicted on Tuesday.
In its first projection of the world's population in the next three centuries, the U.N. Population Division forecast the rise to about 9 billion from the current 6.3 billion people, providing the trend toward smaller families continues. If fertility levels in the developing world remain at
web sitestoday's levels, the global population would reach 244 billion in 2150 and 134 trillion in 2300, according to the report, "World Population in 2300."
"It's like the Titanic with an iceberg ahead," said Joseph Chamie, director of the population division. "You sink because the rates are so low or you simply grow too rapidly because the rates are too high. Either way you have to change course."
Even small changes could make a huge difference, he said. The 9 billion estimate is based on a two-child family, but one-quarter of a child more per family could boost the population in 2300 to 36.4 billion. "It's like if you are too obese you could die," Chamie said. "But if you are too light and you start wasting away, you could die because you are underweight. It's the same with population, being too large, too small, growing too rapidly or too slowly," he said.
The projections for three centuries in advance are the most distant forecast ever given by the United Nations. Chamie maintained policy-makers struggling with climate change, agriculture production and immigration needed long-term projections to take corrective action.
LIVING LONGER WITH SMALLER FAMILIES People in rich countries will live much longer by 2300. Americans, Swedes and Japanese can expect life expectancies of more than 100 years on average, with Japanese expected to live to 108. In China, people are expected to live until 85.
Worldwide, the median age will rise to nearly 59 years in 2300 from 26 years today. That means the number of people aged 60 or over would increase to 38 percent in 2300 from 10 percent of the world's population today. The good news, according to Chamie, was a trend toward smaller families in a variety of nations. He noted two children were the norm in such countries as Iran, Brazil, Indonesia, Mexico and Thailand.
"Men and women are attaining some control over the number and spacing of children," he said in an interview.
But in Europe, Japan, Australia and Canada, families are too small. The report warns that at current levels of 1.4 children per family and no increase in immigration, there would only be 232 Europeans in 100 years for every 1,000 today.
Russia, Italy and Spain would only have about 1 percent of their current size if they did not increase the number of children by 2300. The population in all of Germany would be down to the current size of Berlin, Chamie said.
Some nations, like Italy, are taking remedial steps and offering more than $1,200 for the birth of a child.
The United States is nearly alone among industrial nations in seeing an upward trend, in part due to immigrants, who have more children in the first generation and what Chamie calls native optimism with "people thinking the future is brighter." The United States has 295 million people today and projections are for a doubling to 523 million by 2300.
In Africa, the population will double to 2.3 billion people, from 13 percent of the world's people today to 24 percent in 2300, assuming treatment for AIDS (news - web sites) is widespread.
Latin America and the Caribbean will remain about the same or decline slightly. Asia is expected to decrease to 55 percent of the world's population by 2300, from 61 percent, the report said.
