What I have been quite impressed with in these aducanumab results is that there seems to be a reasonably good chance of actually treating
a broad disease classification such as Alzheimer's with a single compound. The only genetic stratification that they are talking about is
APOE epsilon 4 positive and negative.
This is quite remarkable. With cancer, researchers seem to now be resigned to treating narrowly
defined sub sub types which usually results in limited market potential for their products and thus very high costs to the patient.
Drugs that could effectively treat a large portion of clinical Alzheimer patients would have a global market of tens of millions of patients.
[Some of the recent breakthrough cancer drugs had a potential US market of perhaps 10,000 or less patients.]
I wonder when the Alzheimer political power base will step forward and ask to accelerate the aducanumab phase 3s?
We are already one year into the two phase 3 set to enrol 2700 patients. Do we really want to let these trials run their course until
2020 or 2022? I would think that there are quite a few tens of millions in the Alzheimer community who might not want to wait it out for the next
few years. Why not do an interim analysis in a year? If the results were shown to be moving in the right direction, why not step up with
a billion dollar tax credit for Biogen to add another 1000 patients perhaps with APOE epsilon 4 (say 75% in the treatment arm) to accelerate
the trial? Here again this is not charity. Alzheimer's already costs the global economy well over $1 billion PER DAY. A would think that
investing a billion in such a way would repay itself many many times over. Biogen, though left to its own devices, would not be motivated to spend a billion to
hurry the transit of its antibody through the pipeline.
Perhaps the surprise with the approaching Alzheimer's treatments might be how low the prices are.
The most effective medical treatments ever invented, vaccines, while being extensively researched and highly effective are quite modestly priced.
When everyone buys a medicine the research costs are spread over the entire population. Biogen was talking about the trials for aducanumab costing
$2 billion. Everyone up to tossing in $5-$10 to cover these costs? Everyone does develop Alzheimer pathology eventually, so this is not charity.
For most diseases, especially cancer, when they pass the hat around, people are expected to pony up a few hundred thousand because the patient
populations affected are often small.
I will be very very interested in seeing how Biogen prices its antibody if it were to be shown to be effective.
These companies are in the business of profit maximization. It should be remembered that even for a monopoly profit maximization is not
equal to price maximization. There would simply be a truly massive market for lifestyle anti-amyloid treatments. However, if Biogen were to
unwisely try to go the price maximization route, then it would lose a simply huge amount of its potential revenue.
The recreational anti-amyloid market (where the large revenue potential would be) would probably be willing to pay up to $2000 per year.
If Biogen chose a price point closer to $50,000, then it would lose the entire recreational market. They could simply wait for the patent to expire.
{Anyone know when the aducanumab patent expires?}
Wonder if Biogen could think up a way to have a dual price marketing strategy. Price the product at $50,000 for those with clinical AD and $2,000 for
those who would much prefer never knowing what clinical AD was all about.
The great example here was anti-cholesterol drugs. These lifestyle drugs were the most successful products to ever reach the market. The pharmas did not make the
mistake of trying to price maximize.
Edited by mag1, 03 September 2016 - 12:09 AM.