• Log in with Facebook Log in with Twitter Log In with Google      Sign In    
  • Create Account
  LongeCity
              Advocacy & Research for Unlimited Lifespans


Adverts help to support the work of this non-profit organisation. To go ad-free join as a Member.


Photo

How accurate are Ray Kurzweil's predictions?

kurzweil singularity breakthroughs biomedicine dna sequencing computing brain artificial intelligence robotics

  • Please log in to reply
292 replies to this topic

#61 vog

  • Guest
  • 17 posts
  • 7
  • Location:earth, I guess

Posted 15 August 2009 - 02:18 AM

Responding with thoughts about Ray Kurzweil:

I have just finished reading "The Singularity Is Near" and I am most impressed. It is a great book I would highly recommend. I myself am too close to this man's philosophy to be a credible critic. I think he is perhaps simply an evolved human, perhaps quite ahead of his time and the rest of us.

This article makes it sound as if Kurzweil invented cryonics ("crafted a contingency plan in case he dies before The Singularity arrives").

From "I, Robot" (Newsweek):

But even some of Kurzweil's associates secretly think he's a bit off his rocker, and that his ideas are driven more by fear of death than by solid science. "Ray is going through the single most public midlife crisis that any male has ever gone through," says one scientist who will be teaching at Singularity University and who asked for anonymity because he didn't want to criticize a colleague publicly. . .

The goal of living long enough to experience The Singularity has taken over Kurzweil's life, turning him into a health nut. He's trim and fit, thanks to exercise, a careful diet and loads of supplements. It's also made him wealthier. He's written three books on the subject. His latest, Transcend, released in April, is coauthored with a physician, Terry Grossman, and provides recipesbaked cod, cauliflower with Indian spices, fruit smoothiesand tells you what supplements you should be taking. Grossman and Kurzweil sell their own line of supplements, vitamins and nutrition shakes called Ray & Terry's Longevity Products. Kurzweil has even crafted a contingency plan in case he dies before The Singularity arrives. He'll be frozen in liquid nitrogen and put into storage, waiting for technology to rescue him from the grave. Kurzweil also hopes to bring his father back to life by getting DNA from his father's grave site and using a swarm of nanobots to create a new body that is "indistinguishable from the original person." He'll dig up all of his father's old letters and other materials, and download them along with his own memories into an artificial-intelligence program to create a "virtual person" . . .

He has no doubt. None. He is utterly, completely, 100 percent sure that he is going to live forever. He will be reunited with his beloved father, and they will become immortal and spend eternity together. He is absolutely certain about this. Nothing can talk him out of it. And that, at the end of the day, may be the scariest, or saddest, thing of all.




Of course Kurzweil, assuming he does have cryotransport lined up, will need it according to the actuarial table, just like the rest of us. Well before then he might want to arrange his power of attorney with someone who will cooperate in case his spouse at the time or his children find cryonics all icky and plan to void his arrangements. Given Kurzweil's history of predicting his transcendence of death by the middle of the 21st Century, his relatives could make a plausible case to a judge to set aside his cryonics contract because he displayed mental incompetence when he entered into it, well before his final illness.



#62 forever freedom

  • Guest
  • 2,364 posts
  • 67

Posted 05 November 2009 - 05:23 PM

Hey i found a nice Wiki entry with all of Kurzweil's predictions from all his books. I'd really like to thank whoever went trough the trouble, it saved me a lot of time as i was about to do the same.

Here's the Wiki entry: http://en.wikipedia....Kurzweil#2010_2

Let's discuss his predictions here.

Edited by forever freedom, 05 November 2009 - 05:24 PM.


sponsored ad

  • Advert

#63 A.I.Lover

  • Guest
  • 4 posts
  • 0

Posted 07 November 2009 - 10:25 PM

The next 10 years will be the true test if Kurzweil vision of a singularity happening by 2045 is probable or not.
Of course one could say is from the year 2020 to 2040 that we will really see if it is true but if we want to consider the near future then it's the next 10 years.
I myself believe that the next 10 years are going to be just after the knee of the curve.(meaning more acelerated changes then ever before)


#64 forever freedom

  • Guest
  • 2,364 posts
  • 67

Posted 07 November 2009 - 10:28 PM

The next 10 years will be the true test if Kurzweil vision of a singularity happening by 2045 is probable or not.
Of course one could say is from the year 2020 to 2040 that we will really see if it is true but if we want to consider the near future then it's the next 10 years.
I myself believe that the next 10 years are going to be just after the knee of the curve.(meaning more acelerated changes then ever before)


Let's hope so.


I'm very excited about the future; if not in 10 years, in 20 years at most we'll have a very good picture of the things to come by the 2040s.

Edited by forever freedom, 07 November 2009 - 10:29 PM.


#65 brokenportal

  • Life Member, Moderator
  • 7,046 posts
  • 589
  • Location:Stevens Point, WI

Posted 08 November 2009 - 02:18 AM

It strikes me that those that talk so often about predictions not being able to get here, may be self fulfilling their own prophecy. If we arent working to make this stuff get here, its not going to happen. The more we all work together, which we have been, a lot, and its growing, then the more realistic predictions will become.

My advice, and I could be wrong, is to forget about the predictions. They have a little utility, check them out from time to time, but dont put to much weight in to them. Instead put your weight in to digging in, and help us get this hole to the center of the earth dugg, this man on the moon, this image sent on an airwave, this singularity, this indefinite healthy life extension for all.

#66 opendoor

  • Guest
  • 100 posts
  • 0

Posted 08 November 2009 - 02:38 AM

It strikes me that those that talk so often about predictions not being able to get here, may be self fulfilling their own prophecy. If we arent working to make this stuff get here, its not going to happen. The more we all work together, which we have been, a lot, and its growing, then the more realistic predictions will become.


This is what I half jokingly called The Ultimate Free Rider Problem when I first heard Kurzweil in 2004. One result of coming acceleration is that everyone will be much better off materially in 10 years ands especially 20 years. What happens as people catch on around 2020 or so that wealth is almost certain to keep advancing into the 2030s? Will many start to retire or take up painting instead of working on AI and science in general? Once computers get more powerful in the 2020s, I think Kurzweil predicted the economy will be run by fewer and fewer people. If almost no one worked, then acceleration would presumably stop or slow way down. One could say that AI will have no problem working and improving 'itself' , but Kurzweil's view is that by the 2030s AI and enhanced people have few differences, so under this scenerio, AIs have as much incentive to work and create as people.

Maybe ego, or possibly having to pay for new experiences (just as people had to pay very large sums to fly in the 1950s relative to income) is much more powerful than gaining material wealth so that there is no Ultimate Freerider Problem.

Then again, there was a government report from 1950 that warned Americans would have too much free time by 2000, and that could cause instability...

#67 KalaBeth

  • Guest
  • 100 posts
  • -3

Posted 08 November 2009 - 08:05 AM

Yeah, I tend to think we're still going to be seeing the "desires expand to exceed the available resources, no matter what those resources are" dynamic carrying through for a good long while.

How many people could retire TODAY if they were willing to live at an 1850's.. or even 1950's .. level of median material prosperity?
And then, how many actually do?






Then again, there was a government report from 1950 that warned Americans would have too much free time by 2000, and that could cause instability...



#68 forever freedom

  • Guest
  • 2,364 posts
  • 67

Posted 08 November 2009 - 04:47 PM

Yeah, I tend to think we're still going to be seeing the "desires expand to exceed the available resources, no matter what those resources are" dynamic carrying through for a good long while.

How many people could retire TODAY if they were willing to live at an 1850's.. or even 1950's .. level of median material prosperity?
And then, how many actually do?






Then again, there was a government report from 1950 that warned Americans would have too much free time by 2000, and that could cause instability...



I agree, and i go even further. I think there will never be the end of such thing as a resource-lack driven economy. I hope i'm wrong, though.

#69 valkyrie_ice

  • Guest
  • 837 posts
  • 142
  • Location:Monteagle, TN

Posted 09 November 2009 - 05:17 AM

Yeah, I tend to think we're still going to be seeing the "desires expand to exceed the available resources, no matter what those resources are" dynamic carrying through for a good long while.

How many people could retire TODAY if they were willing to live at an 1850's.. or even 1950's .. level of median material prosperity?
And then, how many actually do?






Then again, there was a government report from 1950 that warned Americans would have too much free time by 2000, and that could cause instability...



I agree, and i go even further. I think there will never be the end of such thing as a resource-lack driven economy. I hope i'm wrong, though.



There will eventually be a abundant economy. and yes, a lot of people will lounge around doing nothing...

And just as many more will be free to do what they have wanted to for their entire lives and have the free time to do something that they actually enjoy.

How many game makers of free web games have done so for no reason but that they like to make games? How many of them have had to not finish a game because the demands of feeding themselves meant they couldn't spend the time to do what they loved?

How many of you would spend time researching all sorts of things, or doing things if you only had the time/talent/ability?

Google Sketchup allowed millions of people to populate Google Earth with user made 3d buildings. They did it for free just to do it. Millions of people made custom items for the Sims, for fun. Secondlife iteself is one of the best examples what a society of abundance can create. If it's users didn't have to leave SL to go do other things to "make a living" most of the ones I know would spend a lot more time there.

Wealth is nothing more than a measure of personal freedom to do what you want.

I have been writing a fanfiction for ten years now. If I had unlimited freetime I would have finished long ago. It's well over 400,000 words and only half complete. I write not for profit, but because I enjoy it. I draw illustrations for it for fun. If I had no other duties to do to ensure I have a home and food, I would like to turn it into a graphic novel, manga style.

People with free time use it to do things they LIKE to do, instead of what they HAVE to do. Give them unlimited time, unlimited access to knowledge, and the ability to create freely, and you will find acceleration will not slow down in the slightest. It will make the current exponential curve seem like a flat line.

Give people the tools, the time, and the freedom to do what they want, and while some would simply lie there forever, others will finally be free to express their creativity, ideas, and make the world not only better, but a lot more fun.

In a society of scarcity, only a tiny percent of the population is in a position to make a positive contribution to science and technology. 99% of people are trapped in jobs in which they are unhappy, underappreciated, unmotivated, and uninspired. An economy of scarcity is the single largest drag on technological innovation there can ever be.

Once we achieve a economy of abundance, in which everyone has the same access to resources, skills (i.e. easy to use powerful software), and manufacturing (ala home replicators) that the wealthy have today, then we will finally be in the early stages of solving the root problems of the human race.

#70 forever freedom

  • Guest
  • 2,364 posts
  • 67

Posted 09 November 2009 - 01:57 PM

Yeah, I tend to think we're still going to be seeing the "desires expand to exceed the available resources, no matter what those resources are" dynamic carrying through for a good long while.

How many people could retire TODAY if they were willing to live at an 1850's.. or even 1950's .. level of median material prosperity?
And then, how many actually do?






Then again, there was a government report from 1950 that warned Americans would have too much free time by 2000, and that could cause instability...



I agree, and i go even further. I think there will never be the end of such thing as a resource-lack driven economy. I hope i'm wrong, though.



There will eventually be a abundant economy. and yes, a lot of people will lounge around doing nothing...

And just as many more will be free to do what they have wanted to for their entire lives and have the free time to do something that they actually enjoy.

How many game makers of free web games have done so for no reason but that they like to make games? How many of them have had to not finish a game because the demands of feeding themselves meant they couldn't spend the time to do what they loved?

How many of you would spend time researching all sorts of things, or doing things if you only had the time/talent/ability?

Google Sketchup allowed millions of people to populate Google Earth with user made 3d buildings. They did it for free just to do it. Millions of people made custom items for the Sims, for fun. Secondlife iteself is one of the best examples what a society of abundance can create. If it's users didn't have to leave SL to go do other things to "make a living" most of the ones I know would spend a lot more time there.

Wealth is nothing more than a measure of personal freedom to do what you want.

I have been writing a fanfiction for ten years now. If I had unlimited freetime I would have finished long ago. It's well over 400,000 words and only half complete. I write not for profit, but because I enjoy it. I draw illustrations for it for fun. If I had no other duties to do to ensure I have a home and food, I would like to turn it into a graphic novel, manga style.

People with free time use it to do things they LIKE to do, instead of what they HAVE to do. Give them unlimited time, unlimited access to knowledge, and the ability to create freely, and you will find acceleration will not slow down in the slightest. It will make the current exponential curve seem like a flat line.

Give people the tools, the time, and the freedom to do what they want, and while some would simply lie there forever, others will finally be free to express their creativity, ideas, and make the world not only better, but a lot more fun.

In a society of scarcity, only a tiny percent of the population is in a position to make a positive contribution to science and technology. 99% of people are trapped in jobs in which they are unhappy, underappreciated, unmotivated, and uninspired. An economy of scarcity is the single largest drag on technological innovation there can ever be.

Once we achieve a economy of abundance, in which everyone has the same access to resources, skills (i.e. easy to use powerful software), and manufacturing (ala home replicators) that the wealthy have today, then we will finally be in the early stages of solving the root problems of the human race.



You only listed possibilities of what people could do in a resource abundant economy but didn't say why there will eventually be an abundant economy (how we will get there).

Edited by forever freedom, 09 November 2009 - 01:57 PM.


#71 valkyrie_ice

  • Guest
  • 837 posts
  • 142
  • Location:Monteagle, TN

Posted 10 November 2009 - 12:43 AM

Yeah, I tend to think we're still going to be seeing the "desires expand to exceed the available resources, no matter what those resources are" dynamic carrying through for a good long while.

How many people could retire TODAY if they were willing to live at an 1850's.. or even 1950's .. level of median material prosperity?
And then, how many actually do?






Then again, there was a government report from 1950 that warned Americans would have too much free time by 2000, and that could cause instability...



I agree, and i go even further. I think there will never be the end of such thing as a resource-lack driven economy. I hope i'm wrong, though.



There will eventually be a abundant economy. and yes, a lot of people will lounge around doing nothing...

And just as many more will be free to do what they have wanted to for their entire lives and have the free time to do something that they actually enjoy.

How many game makers of free web games have done so for no reason but that they like to make games? How many of them have had to not finish a game because the demands of feeding themselves meant they couldn't spend the time to do what they loved?

How many of you would spend time researching all sorts of things, or doing things if you only had the time/talent/ability?

Google Sketchup allowed millions of people to populate Google Earth with user made 3d buildings. They did it for free just to do it. Millions of people made custom items for the Sims, for fun. Secondlife iteself is one of the best examples what a society of abundance can create. If it's users didn't have to leave SL to go do other things to "make a living" most of the ones I know would spend a lot more time there.

Wealth is nothing more than a measure of personal freedom to do what you want.

I have been writing a fanfiction for ten years now. If I had unlimited freetime I would have finished long ago. It's well over 400,000 words and only half complete. I write not for profit, but because I enjoy it. I draw illustrations for it for fun. If I had no other duties to do to ensure I have a home and food, I would like to turn it into a graphic novel, manga style.

People with free time use it to do things they LIKE to do, instead of what they HAVE to do. Give them unlimited time, unlimited access to knowledge, and the ability to create freely, and you will find acceleration will not slow down in the slightest. It will make the current exponential curve seem like a flat line.

Give people the tools, the time, and the freedom to do what they want, and while some would simply lie there forever, others will finally be free to express their creativity, ideas, and make the world not only better, but a lot more fun.

In a society of scarcity, only a tiny percent of the population is in a position to make a positive contribution to science and technology. 99% of people are trapped in jobs in which they are unhappy, underappreciated, unmotivated, and uninspired. An economy of scarcity is the single largest drag on technological innovation there can ever be.

Once we achieve a economy of abundance, in which everyone has the same access to resources, skills (i.e. easy to use powerful software), and manufacturing (ala home replicators) that the wealthy have today, then we will finally be in the early stages of solving the root problems of the human race.



You only listed possibilities of what people could do in a resource abundant economy but didn't say why there will eventually be an abundant economy (how we will get there).


Did you check out my thread "a development I've been waiting for"

Home based manufacturing units will be a first step. they are well on the way to being developed. Also, most raw resources are inexpensive to produce. It's the manufacturing process which is expensive. as "printing" devices becomes the dominant manufacturing mode, prices will drop precipitously towards cost of materials. I.E. no need to create specialized one use manufacturing devices when a universal "printer" can be used to make most components. It will also move manufacturing into the ability to produce "tiny" lots which would not otherwise be worth making due to cost.

We are a technological species. lower the cost of manufacturing, you reduce the costs for everything that uses manufactured products. It also allows a lot more "experimentation" and innovation, as more ideas can be explored, which increases competition, which in turn increases innovation, and lowers cost.

We are in an economy of SEMI-ARTIFICIAL scarcity now. Many items which SHOULD be at the free or almost free level of availability are artificially made scarce in order to elevate their prices, such as diamonds.

Abundance erodes an economy of scarcity. No matter how hard artificial scarcity is attempted to be maintained, sooner or later it eventually fails. Artificial scarcity can only work when a product is below market saturation. Home manufacturing will more or less create instant saturation.

#72 KalaBeth

  • Guest
  • 100 posts
  • -3

Posted 10 November 2009 - 04:50 AM

Frankly, I don't see the two perspectives as antagonistic. Mostly because we ALREADY live in an "abundance economy." With just 40 hours of work a week most anyone can maintain a lifestyle that would be unimaginably rich to our ancestors, just as it is to a good deal of the planet today.

Surely the options will expand with time (again, provided there's not an interrupting societal collapse or suchlike) and we'll see more of the same creativity in all corners of the world. I'm especially excited to see what this "cloud-sourcing" of talent is going to come up with in the coming few decades. Some awesome stuff I'm sure.. and certainly a few terrors as well.

That said... I'm skeptical that in the immediately foreseeable future (say, the next half century) you'll see many folks opting to drop out full time either for lotus eating or private creative endeavors.

If anyone wants to live with just the comforts of a century ago and drop off the grid to write the next Walden... downsizing is imminently doable. Today. Right now. But only a few people do so... partially out of habit and cultural expectations, and partly because there are just so *many* other temptations vying for our dollars and our time. More and more rare treats and shiny luxuries become thought of as necessities to life.... and those costs add up. I just don't see that trend slowing *significantly* for most people in the immediate future.

Just as when the price of gas comes down after a peak folks generally don't save the difference or cut their hours - instead they drive more and buy hungrier cars. I expect the same dynamic to continue for a good long while.

... also, I wanna know how much the refill cartridges on those home fabricators are gonna run. :)

Edited by KalaBeth, 10 November 2009 - 05:18 AM.


#73 valkyrie_ice

  • Guest
  • 837 posts
  • 142
  • Location:Monteagle, TN

Posted 10 November 2009 - 06:54 AM

Frankly, I don't see the two perspectives as antagonistic. Mostly because we ALREADY live in an "abundance economy." With just 40 hours of work a week most anyone can maintain a lifestyle that would be unimaginably rich to our ancestors, just as it is to a good deal of the planet today.

Surely the options will expand with time (again, provided there's not an interrupting societal collapse or suchlike) and we'll see more of the same creativity in all corners of the world. I'm especially excited to see what this "cloud-sourcing" of talent is going to come up with in the coming few decades. Some awesome stuff I'm sure.. and certainly a few terrors as well.

That said... I'm skeptical that in the immediately foreseeable future (say, the next half century) you'll see many folks opting to drop out full time either for lotus eating or private creative endeavors.

If anyone wants to live with just the comforts of a century ago and drop off the grid to write the next Walden... downsizing is imminently doable. Today. Right now. But only a few people do so... partially out of habit and cultural expectations, and partly because there are just so *many* other temptations vying for our dollars and our time. More and more rare treats and shiny luxuries become thought of as necessities to life.... and those costs add up. I just don't see that trend slowing *significantly* for most people in the immediate future.

Just as when the price of gas comes down after a peak folks generally don't save the difference or cut their hours - instead they drive more and buy hungrier cars. I expect the same dynamic to continue for a good long while.

... also, I wanna know how much the refill cartridges on those home fabricators are gonna run. :)



Right now the fabricator costs around 500 compared to the 20,000 approx for a commercial Rapid Prototype machine, and that is for those parts it cannot as yet make for itself. Cost of refills will eventually depend on the sophistication of the replicator. Think printers. you buy a cheap printer. You pay a lot for cartridges. OR you buy a printer and pay a lot less for the cartridge refill kit.

It's not the ink which costs. It's the cartridge itself.

Bulk raw materials do not cost a fraction of the cost of processed materials. how much the Fabricator costs depends very much on whether it stays able to use low cost bulk raw material, or if Corporations manage to force them to have expensive "refills" like most printers. Once upon a time, a printer cost a lot but refills were cheap. Fewer printer sales were made. Now printers are cheap, but the money is made off refills. As a marketing ploy it made printer companies millions more, while forcing individuals to make do with less. Most people I know with a printer rarely use it like they used to, because ink costs too much. My mate hates to read on a computer screen. When reading more than a few pages she liked to print it out and read in bed. Now she forces herself to read on the screen because it's too expensive to replace ink. (the cartridge is as much as a new printer)

I would be a lot more worried about that if this were a project of a large company, whose marketing department would insist on incompatibility and proprietary tech at every turn. This is designed to be cheap and easy. Hopefully it won't fall prey to the idiocy outlined above.

#74 Easytimes

  • Guest
  • 2 posts
  • 0

Posted 17 November 2009 - 01:44 PM

Hey here is a link to a site which has been tracking a large number of future predictions by not only Kurzweil but a number of other futurists as well. http://www.cc.gatech...~pesti/roadmap/
Its call "detailed roadmap of the 21st century" and I have been going to this site every now and then for a few years now to check on how many of these futurist predcitions are coming true and I will contiune to do so as long as it is kept up and running. Sadly according to the webmaster none of Kurzweils predictions for 2009 have come good but we still have a month and a half to go.

#75 forever freedom

  • Guest
  • 2,364 posts
  • 67

Posted 17 November 2009 - 02:06 PM

Hey here is a link to a site which has been tracking a large number of future predictions by not only Kurzweil but a number of other futurists as well. http://www.cc.gatech...~pesti/roadmap/
Its call "detailed roadmap of the 21st century" and I have been going to this site every now and then for a few years now to check on how many of these futurist predcitions are coming true and I will contiune to do so as long as it is kept up and running. Sadly according to the webmaster none of Kurzweils predictions for 2009 have come good but we still have a month and a half to go.


Hey thanks. That's a nice website.

#76 captainbeefheart

  • Guest, F@H
  • 201 posts
  • 4
  • Location:Bristol, UK

Posted 17 November 2009 - 05:31 PM

Hey here is a link to a site which has been tracking a large number of future predictions by not only Kurzweil but a number of other futurists as well. http://www.cc.gatech...~pesti/roadmap/
Its call "detailed roadmap of the 21st century" and I have been going to this site every now and then for a few years now to check on how many of these futurist predcitions are coming true and I will contiune to do so as long as it is kept up and running. Sadly according to the webmaster none of Kurzweils predictions for 2009 have come good but we still have a month and a half to go.


good find, not sure what the Britney Spears obsession is all about :) , not really much of a prediction she will be 50 by 2030 then 60 in 2040, or whatever it is, she will be...dead of alive.

#77 valkyrie_ice

  • Guest
  • 837 posts
  • 142
  • Location:Monteagle, TN

Posted 18 November 2009 - 01:53 AM

Just a cursory reading makes me wonder how many of Clark's predictions would have come true had two OIL BARONS not been made president. One when Cold Fusion was first discovered, and a second one who repressed anything which could jeopardize his family's massive profits.

#78 valkyrie_ice

  • Guest
  • 837 posts
  • 142
  • Location:Monteagle, TN

Posted 10 December 2009 - 04:04 AM

Okay, let me make an official pronouncement FULL BASIC AV VR DEVICES.

Project Natal: http://www.xbox.com/...e/projectnatal/

Use: Full body tracking and positional control, video phone, real time tracking

Emotiv Epoc: http://www.emotiv.com/epoc.html

Use: Basic BCI interface, facial expressions, mouse and keyboard functions

Video Glasses/Audio output: http://www.zetronix....ex.php?cPath=26 (first hit on google sponsered)

Use: Audio/video output, 3D stereoscopic display.

Any Game Console or Computer: 3D game or program

Use: VR software


Total Cost: less than $1500



Full Audio Video Immersion VR. Basic utility. Expensive/Doesn't work well stage.



Looks like Kurzweil nailed this one.

#79 niner

  • Guest
  • 16,276 posts
  • 1,999
  • Location:Philadelphia

Posted 10 December 2009 - 05:59 AM

OK, since he said "devices", I guess I'll give it to him. There's kind of a missing link for it to really be VR; there's no VR software or system. The Zetronix device is just a display, but it's head-mounted and pretty slick. I guess the idea would be to exploit the project Natal gear to track the user in a small virtual world, and display it on the glasses. Realistically, the zetronix glasses will probably find more use as a way to watch pr0n... :|?

#80 e Volution

  • Guest
  • 937 posts
  • 280
  • Location:spaceship earth

Posted 10 December 2009 - 07:27 AM

I gave it another thought and I'm not sure why we started to talk about the GPU power, becouse as far as I know usually when people are talking about computer power in calculations per second they are talking about the CPU, and not GPU.....

So how much calculations per second a $1,000 personal computer's CPU can perform today? (I guess it's one one the two: Intel or AMD ....)

Thanks!


This is not quite correct. GPU's are so powerful these days, add some storage to them and I think they now fit under the definition of a computer all by itself. A CPU is a microprocessor performing calculations with transistors. A GPU has a microprocessor performing calculations with a microprocessor, so the two are same. This is evident by team of scientists who built a supercomputer with 70 PlayStation 2's. It's the powerful graphics PROCESSOR there were utilising for the computing
http://news.bbc.co.u...ogy/2940422.stm

It would be in our best interest to keep track of Kurzweil's hits and misses. He has been a fairly accurate forecaster thus far. Some of his predictions will no doubt be off the mark and it would instructive to understand why. What societal trends were at work? What engineering hurdles were to high to overcome? If we have a general idea of what technologies are on the near-term horizon we should be able to adapt and make sure we get there safely.


My feeling is Kurzweils predictions-particular those furthest in the future-will be optimistic due to the desire (consciously or subconsciously) of it being a self fulfilling prophecy! Tell the world this change could happen in their lifetime and more people will become interested and involved in the movement! There are certainly many expert out there who think he is way off the mark! But isn't that the beauty of science! He has made his predictions, and all we need is time to test them!

#81 valkyrie_ice

  • Guest
  • 837 posts
  • 142
  • Location:Monteagle, TN

Posted 10 December 2009 - 09:51 AM

OK, since he said "devices", I guess I'll give it to him. There's kind of a missing link for it to really be VR; there's no VR software or system. The Zetronix device is just a display, but it's head-mounted and pretty slick. I guess the idea would be to exploit the project Natal gear to track the user in a small virtual world, and display it on the glasses. Realistically, the zetronix glasses will probably find more use as a way to watch pr0n... :|?



Actually Emotiv has created a way to use the Epoc in SecondLife.

Once Natal is available, I really don't think it will be long before the developers kit gets used to create a SecondLife interface as well.

Or program a patch to use in World of Warcraft.

Can't recall if the Xbox controllers use usb or a proprietary connector. If it's USB like the P3, then I'd be willing to bet there will be a driver for windows inside of a month of release, official or not. If not, I'd be willing to bet that someone will create a usb equivalent once they can reverse engineer enough to duplicate a version without infringing. It might take a year, but Sony and Nintendo will make their own brands, and Sony's WILL be USB

As I said, this is at the "Expensive/Doesn't work well" stage, because it requires a bit of technical expertise to make it fully functional, has limited use, and will be only semi usable in most cases, much like the early cellphones.

But given the incentive once a few rigs are cobbled together? I give it two years tops before most games will use a natal/epoc combo, and much more usable and inexpensive lenses become available.

But the barebones of true VR is here.

#82 ben951

  • Guest
  • 111 posts
  • 15
  • Location:France

Posted 11 December 2009 - 08:23 PM

Isn't this already full immersion audio and video VR ?
The graphics are bad but that wasn't the point of the presentation.


Plus an omnidirectional treadmill.


And High quality graphics (Avatar style) check out the scene at 4:00 it's pretty impressing !


#83 valkyrie_ice

  • Guest
  • 837 posts
  • 142
  • Location:Monteagle, TN

Posted 12 December 2009 - 03:56 AM

Isn't this already full immersion audio and video VR ?
The graphics are bad but that wasn't the point of the presentation.


Plus an omnidirectional treadmill.


And High quality graphics (Avatar style) check out the scene at 4:00 it's pretty impressing !



The first is standard green room. Extremely hard to do in a house. Natal is natural environment use, as such is the first practical application of full body motion tracking.

I would want full specs on that treadmill. I cannot see any method by which a square treadmill can be made omnidirectional. Believe me I've been trying to design a functional omidirectional treadmill for 10 years. I have to wonder the extent to which the treads will go in all directions. Additionally the need to use a harness makes it impractical for use in a home.

#84 niner

  • Guest
  • 16,276 posts
  • 1,999
  • Location:Philadelphia

Posted 12 December 2009 - 04:32 AM

I would want full specs on that treadmill. I cannot see any method by which a square treadmill can be made omnidirectional. Believe me I've been trying to design a functional omidirectional treadmill for 10 years. I have to wonder the extent to which the treads will go in all directions. Additionally the need to use a harness makes it impractical for use in a home.

Omnidirectional treadmills are out there. I vaguely remember seeing one somewhere. Might have been a video.

#85 valkyrie_ice

  • Guest
  • 837 posts
  • 142
  • Location:Monteagle, TN

Posted 12 December 2009 - 05:40 AM

I would want full specs on that treadmill. I cannot see any method by which a square treadmill can be made omnidirectional. Believe me I've been trying to design a functional omidirectional treadmill for 10 years. I have to wonder the extent to which the treads will go in all directions. Additionally the need to use a harness makes it impractical for use in a home.

Omnidirectional treadmills are out there. I vaguely remember seeing one somewhere. Might have been a video.



goddammit. a flattened torus. *kicks self in the rear end* I've been stuck trying to figure out how to make a system that didn't require a ball or semi spherical segment with balls embedded in it.

Flattened Torus would indeed work, and allow just two motors to run it. One for whole torus rotation, one to rotate the torus skin. Basic X,Y.
Posted Image

while it would need a solid frame inside the torus to maintain tension and provide support, the mat material would completely enclose it. Drive motors inside the torus could provide x,y, and a small hydraulic system could provide tilt and lift control for sloped surfaces or for that initial elevator lift effect. Base the motion on the full body tracking from the Natal so that it syncs to the users motions, you can eliminate the harness.

well there goes ten years of design work. They made one better than mine. *sigh*

So, there you go Niner. last element for free motion VR

Edited by valkyrie_ice, 12 December 2009 - 05:42 AM.


#86 valkyrie_ice

  • Guest
  • 837 posts
  • 142
  • Location:Monteagle, TN

Posted 12 December 2009 - 12:49 PM

http://singularityhu...th-iwear-camar/

And here is an actual AR ready set of video glasses.

http://singularityhu...-reality-video/

a haptic ring in prototype stage which lets you "feel" objects

Edited by valkyrie_ice, 12 December 2009 - 01:01 PM.


#87 alexd

  • Guest
  • 106 posts
  • 7

Posted 12 December 2009 - 05:07 PM

I enjoyed everyones takes on the matter but I suspect that there is a meta aspect to it.

Perhaps the question is when will a sufficient number of people start thinking like Kurzweil to germinate a singularity of mind in it's own right?

Think about how, when a sufficient number of potential doctors accepted the fact that blood circulated through the body, how that affected the direction of medical inquiry. A slow meme compared to the current speed, but easy to look back on. Kurzweil is the one eyed man in the land of the blind. He has observed the importance of the ever increasing rate of technological advancement and has speculated on possible or likely outcomes. We tend to quibble on whether he is right or wrong in whether his predictions are accurate for any given year when what happens in subsequent years after that when those events/concepts are pervasively integrated into enough brains (organic or inorganic) and we get to perceive how that changes the games and influences the rate of change in itself might be the right question.

What is the word for a thing that exponentially advances (is that the right word) the rate of change? Game changer seems inadequate. I view synchronicity as a description of the threshold so I am not sure that will do.

We can't even talk about what will happen because we tend to think in terms of the last technology and those very descriptive phrases are inadequate and insufficient to describe the next.

Well those are my thoughts.I will now let the many smarter minds then mine carry on.

"Talk amongst yourselves. "

Edited by alexd, 12 December 2009 - 05:55 PM.


#88 valkyrie_ice

  • Guest
  • 837 posts
  • 142
  • Location:Monteagle, TN

Posted 12 December 2009 - 06:43 PM

I enjoyed everyones takes on the matter but I suspect that there is a meta aspect to it.

Perhaps the question is when will a sufficient number of people start thinking like Kurzweil to germinate a singularity of mind in it's own right?

Think about how, when a sufficient number of potential doctors accepted the fact that blood circulated through the body, how that affected the direction of medical inquiry. A slow meme compared to the current speed, but easy to look back on. Kurzweil is the one eyed man in the land of the blind. He has observed the importance of the ever increasing rate of technological advancement and has speculated on possible or likely outcomes. We tend to quibble on whether he is right or wrong in whether his predictions are accurate for any given year when what happens in subsequent years after that when those events/concepts are pervasively integrated into enough brains (organic or inorganic) and we get to perceive how that changes the games and influences the rate of change in itself might be the right question.

What is the word for a thing that exponentially advances (is that the right word) the rate of change? Game changer seems inadequate. I view synchronicity as a description of the threshold so I am not sure that will do.

We can't even talk about what will happen because we tend to think in terms of the last technology and those very descriptive phrases are inadequate and insufficient to describe the next.

Well those are my thoughts.I will now let the many smarter minds then mine carry on.

"Talk amongst yourselves. "



There is one thing that I think most people, including Ray, fail to properly account for.

Ray talks about Genetics, Nanotech, and Robotics, Micheal A. and other VR supporters talk about Virtual world building and computronium, but I don't think most people really understand how dramatic a catalyst VR is going to be.

Coca Cola maybe got it best in their superbowl commercial though the subtext of the commercial shows all these people lost in their little computer worlds. With the development of true see through AR/VR glasses or contacts, that is not going to be the case.

Imagine Google Earth. A globe you can zoom in on like the opening of "The Burbs" (not the real one but as close as I could find) right down to the street you are standing on like Street View.

This is Mirror Reality. It's absolutely identical to reality, but it's computer generated, and overlaid in your VR glasses. With in this globe, you can zoom anywhere you chose, just like in Google Earth, but this is updated constantly in real time. Every item, every detail is tracked via the ccds on cells, Vr lenses, street watching cameras, RFID sensors, and whatever other sensors we come up with.

In other words, you can visit the world in real time.

Simple enough right? Now add in the AR functions. No matter where you go, you can call up information, see google map pins, automatically determine if that car is moving too fast for you to cross the street, or any of a million AR apps like those appearing for iPhone.

So far, not too hard to imagine, right?

You've seen this a thousand times, heard about it a million.

Now, toss in that Commercial.

So that everywhere you look, everywhere you go, you really DO see people looking like their avatars.

A huge, worldwide, never ending, sci-fi and cosplay convention that runs 24 hours a day.

Your brain suddenly started to hurt there didn't it?

That's not all though.

Now add in the steampunk tech aircraft mixed with star wars fighter craft and winged unicorns in the sky. Or the cars that look like everything from Luke's landspeeder to horse drawn carriages to Tron Recognizers.

Now add in that every alley you walk down could in theory be it's own little universe, from WoW, to Corescant, to the Ninth Level of Hell.

Once you have that head spinning vision firmly set in your brain, add in the fact that every room you enter could be it's own universe too. And that every person you interact with may be existing in a completely different universe than yours.

And that while you may be looking at them looking like a Paladin from WoW, they may be looking at you as a naked slave girl from Gor.

So, now that your head has completely been bent in half, imagine how much incentive that will give everyone to push those technologies which could make EVERY SINGLE BIT OF THAT 100% solid, physical reality instead of VR.

GN and R will not change us as much as VR will. And VR will do it this decade.

And that is what I think almost everyone overlooks.

#89 alexd

  • Guest
  • 106 posts
  • 7

Posted 12 December 2009 - 08:31 PM

What you have overlooked is that it has already happened.........

sponsored ad

  • Advert

#90 valkyrie_ice

  • Guest
  • 837 posts
  • 142
  • Location:Monteagle, TN

Posted 14 December 2009 - 06:32 AM

What you have overlooked is that it has already happened.........


http://www.fastcompa...gmented-reality

I know, I'm just working an making people realize it XPPPPPPPPPPP





Also tagged with one or more of these keywords: kurzweil, singularity, breakthroughs, biomedicine, dna sequencing, computing, brain, artificial intelligence, robotics

36 user(s) are reading this topic

0 members, 36 guests, 0 anonymous users