145 replies to this topic

[Mind]

From the Mercola blog:

You may not know this, but all H1N1 flu's are descendants of the 1918 pandemic strain. The reason why the flu shot may or may not work, however, from year to year, is due to mutations. Therefore, there's no vaccine available for this current hybrid flu strain, and naturally, this is feeding the fear that millions of people will die before a vaccine can be made.

However, let me remind you of one very important fact here.

Just a couple of months ago, scientists concluded that the 1918 flu pandemic that killed between 50-100 million people worldwide in a matter of 18 months -- which all these worst case scenarios are built upon -- was NOT due to the flu itself!4

Instead, they discovered the real culprit was strep infections.

People with influenza often get what is known as a "superinfection" with a bacterial agent. In 1918 it appears to have been Streptococcus pneumoniae.

Since strep is much easier to treat than the flu using modern medicine, a new pandemic would likely be much less dire than it was in the early 20th century, the researchers concluded.

This is the first I have heard of this. We had a big discussion about the 1918 flu during one of the past mass-hysteria-super-bug-we-are-all-going-to-die episodes, but this theory was not known at the time.

[AgeVivo]

Since strep is much easier to treat than the flu using modern medicine, a new pandemic would likely be much less dire than it was in the early 20th century, the researchers concluded.

It's what i meant but better said:
- the bad news is that it is like the 1918 pandemia, so every other person might get it, despite masks and so on
- the good news is:

that there are antiviral treatments to lower the degree of the flu (and some will take vitamin D and tea and so on), and if it isn't sufficient antibiotics can avoid the complications. [streptococcus in 1918]

I wonder if the deaths are people that didn't react within the week to take tamiflu nor antibiotics when they became ill?

There might be another good news: the 1918 pandemia happened from mid-september to december and february to may. This flu is starting in may, like other flus it should stop soon due to the summer coming.

... isn't ageing the #1 pandemia ?

[AgeVivo]

In a few years, if Rita Effros's strategies to avoid T cell scenescence (eg TA-65) become applied to most of the population (when cancer incidence concerns answered, or telomere elongation limited to T-cells) then
- not only people should live longer and be more resistant to diseases
- but also pandemia should become more rare.
Indeed reemergence (of H1N1 for instance) should be considerably disminished if a large part of the population still has good lymphocytes that remember and fight it.... isn't ageing the #1 pandemia ?

Edited by AgeVivo, 30 April 2009 - 10:58 AM.

[sUper GeNius]

Would cladribine help?

http://news.bbc.co.u...lth/8023120.stm

[caston]

There might be another good news: the 1918 pandemia happened from mid-september to december and february to may. This flu is starting in may, like other flus it should stop soon due to the summer coming.

Unless your in the southern hemisphere and you're like me and heading into winter.

[ajnast4r]

unnecessary worry is unnecessary

[Mind]

Remember too that "pandemic" has a negative connotation, but plainly stated (WHO phase 6) it is only a community level outbreak in at least two different regions. No mention of mortality rate. By WHO's definition we have phase 6 pandemic of the flu every single year, same with colds, and other pathogens.

Egyptian farmers FORCED to kill all their pigs - around 300,000 in the country.

These are the type of illogical and economically harmful things that result from mass-hysteria.

[sUper GeNius]

Remember too that "pandemic" has a negative connotation, but plainly stated (WHO phase 6) it is only a community level outbreak in at least two different regions. No mention of mortality rate. By WHO's definition we have phase 6 pandemic of the flu every single year, same with colds, and other pathogens.

Egyptian farmers FORCED to kill all their pigs - around 300,000 in the country.

These are the type of illogical and economically harmful things that result from mass-hysteria.

Yep, like this idiot. Let's watch an airline go belly up now.

http://www.bloomberg...6...&refer=home

[Rich D]

At the risk of revealing and being embarrassed by my anti-establishment vigor of a few years ago:

SARS anyone?
Bird Flu anyone?
West Nile Virus anyone?

It was said that if SARS ever left the far east (or wherever it was first reported) that it would make the 1918 pandemic look like child's play. It did spread, but here we are 6 years later. Many of you probably also remember the immense hysteria that developed in the U.S. over the substantially non-lethal West Nile Virus.

I realize the danger in the "super bug" scenario, but I have also been alive long enough to have seen innumerable waves of media-generated "super bug" hysteria. Is the swine flu the one? I don't know. But what I do know is that open discussions on how best to combat new viruses, like this one here, are better than cowering in fear and quarantining every city in the world. The more we learn about the immune system and how we live in balance with the viral and bacterial ecosystems - most of the time - the sooner we will be able to develop newer more effective strategies for keeping people alive.

My thoughts exactly. It is so nice to have someone else old and wise enough to not automatically become the next chicken little everytime the media plays up some "the sky is falling" story; the year 2000; SARS, acid rain, the coming ice age, Global warming, lol. "Wolf!", "Wolf!", "Wolf!"...

[index.dat]

Well, all I can say is that I`m getting fed up with this all.

There were reports of a boy from Yokohama who was suspected to have contracted H1N1 so now the media just can`t shut up about it. I guess it`s better to be safe than sorry, sure, but do people really pay attention to these things? In my experience, no, they just don`t. They sure blabber about the disease, but are quick to change the subject, not because they`re afraid, but rather because they just forget about it and move onto the next topic.

We`d had economic crisis, downturns, recessions, depressions every 4 or 5 years for the last 150 years, influenza pandemics every 10 to 30 years, we had SARS, we have AIDS...boy, I`m just so tired...

[drmz]

Remember too that "pandemic" has a negative connotation, but plainly stated (WHO phase 6) it is only a community level outbreak in at least two different regions. No mention of mortality rate. By WHO's definition we have phase 6 pandemic of the flu every single year, same with colds, and other pathogens.

Egyptian farmers FORCED to kill all their pigs - around 300,000 in the country.

These are the type of illogical and economically harmful things that result from mass-hysteria.

The virus has to be new to get into the WHO phase cycle +
In Phase 2 an animal influenza virus circulating among domesticated or wild animals is known to have caused infection in humans, and is therefore considered a potential pandemic threat.

Common flu, colds and such never reach level 6 by WHO standards.

Edited by drmz, 01 May 2009 - 07:56 AM.

[Mind]

Hmmm, but there are new cold and flu strains every year. We live in a sea of virus and bacteria and they are constantly mutating and mixing, are they not? Does the WHO phase cycle only apply to new animal strains or animal/human virus mixes?

[Mixter]

True life extension activists should think objectively and rely on numbers and probabilities. Anyone who panics now regarding his personal infection risk isn't thinking scientifically enough yet. Also dealing honestly with questions of mortality is supposed to make you less afraid of it (fear correlates with ignorance), not more. IMO if engagement in the life extension community makes you more scared of death and health risks, you are doing it wrong

Now for some nice "conspiracy" links, please sort signal from noise yourself:

1. Fact: the last swine flu outbreak came from a US military base: http://en.wikipedia....ne_flu_outbreak

2. Just a few weeks ago, another US military base reported missing probes: http://edition.cnn.c...g.virus.sample/

3. For human-human transmission, an animal virus needs either a set of rare genetic mutation (gene drift), or recombination with a different flu subtype (gene shift). Both are quite rare (at least 1:thousands). Now, we suddenly have "manbirdpig flu", a merger of bird and pig, plus human or mutations that make it human transmittable. Without an in-between step. Hmm.

4. Some warnings were issued as early as Feb 09, where panasonic recalled employees in several countries due to pandemic risk: http://www.google.co...Q3z6XtKKFeydIug

5. There are isolated cases of crazy elitists who dream of a depopulation agenda and have a lot of leverage due to their power, $ and authority. This is not a conspiracy argument, as I am not saying that any of these cooperate. However,

In the event that I am reincarnated, I would like to return as a deadly virus, in order to contribute something to solve overpopulation.

Foreword to Fleur Cowles, If I Were an Animal (William Morrow, publisher, 1987, ISBN 9780688061500), by Prince Phillip, Duke of Edinburgh. And a leading US gov. technology advisor says openly on BBC that there are too many people on the planet.

As said, have fun separating signal from noise. But since the 2001 anthrax originated from US military scientists, it is not impossible that the current influenza originated, for example, from Fort Detrick. There are too many nutcases in positions of power. Their conservative stance is religious or secular deathism, and the extreme radical form of that is supporting a depopulation agenda, in secret or openly like Prince Phillip. I don't think these elitist nutcases could work together, but perhaps influence a scientist here or there working for the government, and it just needs one guy to recombine a virus and release it.

TL;DR: Of all people, life extensionists must be the last to panic about incidents like these. Instead we must do everything to fight the deathist attitude, by producing good science and blogging/being active in politics and civil rights.

PS: I forgot: http://doihaveswineflu.org/

Edited by mixter, 01 May 2009 - 08:10 PM.

[VespeneGas]

meh, I think if rich powerful people colluded to produce a super bug, it would be a lot deadlier than the swine flu

[AgeVivo]

please sort signal from noise yourself

1)there might be rich powerfull depopulating people, in contact with the US army, who are very inefficient
2)there might be people here making jokes about irrational fears and real deaths ;-]
3)aging is the #1 pandemia : let's fight the pandemia!

Edited by AgeVivo, 01 May 2009 - 10:28 PM.

[Mind]

I am still hearing differing accounts as to whether this "scary pandemic flu" is a man-bear-pig flu, or just a human variant, and if it is even all that deadly.

This strain may have developed as early as January

Which again makes all this hysteria academic (seems to me anyway). If this strain develop in early January, or even in February, as some scientists suggest, then it has traveled around the world several times.

I am working towards a coherent thought on the current WHO/CDC methods of dealing with deadly viruses, but haven't got completely there yet. What is obvious to me is that quarantines and travel bans seem quite useless. First of all we don't have the monitoring capability to catch it before it spreads (and do we want a government health agent on every street corner monitoring every cough and every fever? perhaps a cooperative hive mind scenario would develop in the future to handle this, but we don't have that now). Secondly, the world is way too connected to shut all travel down. We all depend on the world-wide economic system and trade for our survival. Our food products, our energy, our computers, all have parts or key processes that occur in many countries of the world. Shutting down all travel and all delivery would rapidly bring shortages of basic necessities.

We need a better strategy.

[AgeVivo]

Which again makes all this hysteria academic (...) Shutting down all travel and all delivery would rapidly bring shortages of basic necessities. We need a better strategy.

Another theory of conspiracy: this academic hysteria is a way to change our focus and make us forget about the real #1 pandemia... aging!

[VespeneGas]

Which again makes all this hysteria academic (...) Shutting down all travel and all delivery would rapidly bring shortages of basic necessities. We need a better strategy.

Another theory of conspiracy: this academic hysteria is a way to change our focus and make us forget about the real #1 pandemia... aging!

OK...

1. Please stop calling it a pandemia
2. Yes, we're all aware that aging claims more lives than swine flu. That's probably why there are over 9000 threads on aging and one thread on swine flu.

[AgeVivo]

Ok, so a last well-known claim: aging kills 100 000 people a day.

Edited by AgeVivo, 01 May 2009 - 10:45 PM.

[Mind]

Genetic data indicate this outbreak won't be as deadly as that of 1918, or even the average winter.

n fact, the current outbreak of the H1N1 virus, which emerged in San Diego and southern Mexico late last month, may not even do as much damage as the run-of-the-mill flu outbreaks that occur each winter without much fanfare.

[VictorBjoerk]

swedish magazines are hysterical, now some swedish people have arrived in the sama plane as a Danish woman who has been diagnosed with the virus...

last newspapers headlines goes like this..


THE WHOLE HUMANITY IS THREATENED BY SWINE FLU!

Edited by VictorBjoerk, 01 May 2009 - 11:06 PM.

[niner]

Posters: Please separate signal from noise before posting. Otherwise, you are just spreading misinformation, and that isn't helping anyone.

[mike250]

As of January 2004:

http://www.cidrap.um...404hybrids.html

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) will soon launch experiments designed to combine the H5N1 virus and human flu viruses and then see how the resulting hybrids affect animals. The goal is to assess the chances that such a "reassortant" virus will emerge and how dangerous it might be.

[PWAIN]

Could it be that as treatment with Tamiflu becomes more prevalent, the mortality appears to be going down? If the virus mutates to not be affected by Tamiflu, could we see a sharp rise in mortality?

On another issue, when investigating Tamiflu, it appears that the key ingredient is shikimic acid from star anise which has quite a lot of this acid. Speculation is whether eating star anise to get shikimic acid would help fight flu. I came across this:

http://www.ncbi.nlm....pubmed/18297698

The risk of an avian influenza pandemic has put oseltamivir (Tamiflu) in the spotlight and has given rise to rumors that shikimic acid (SK), which is used for the synthesis of Tamiflu, possesses therapeutic activity. This study was undertaken to determine whether SK, either alone or in combination with quercitin (QT) is able to modulate the release of IL-6 and IL-8 from peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs). The experiments were conducted comparing the properties of SK, both alone and in combination, with those of Tamiflu. The incubation of PBMCs with 100 nM Tamiflu or SK at two concentrations (10 nM; 100 nM) did not produce any change in IL-6 and IL-8 baseline levels (data expressed as incremental change vs. baseline). On the contrary, incubation with SK and QT at both concentrations (10 and 100 nM) produced a significant increase in the release of IL-8 as compared to other groups (4.19 +/- 0.82, SK-QT 10 nM; 3.83 +/- 1.17 SK-QT 100 nM, P < 0.05 vs. baseline 1.00 +/- 0.10, Tamiflu 100 nM 1.35 +/- 0.16, SK 10 nM 1.68 +/- 0.15 and SK 100 nM 1.80 +/- 0.48). The SK-QT combination also proved to be effective in the upregulation of IL-6 (3.08 +/- 0.46, SK-QT 10 nM; 3.60 +/- 0.74 SK-QT 100 nM, P < 0.05 vs. baseline 1.00 +/- 0.26). According to these findings SK alone is not able to modulate innate immunity in antiviral terms. However, the data show that the SK + QT combination, even at low doses, may be effective for the modulation of innate immunity.

Am I reading this correctly? Shikimic acid taken together with Quercetin provides some protection? Would modulating IL-6 and IL-8 just cause a cytokine storm or is this a potential backup to Tamiflu? I don't have access to the full paper and even if I did, I don't have the training to be sure of my understanding. Could someone who understands this stuff please read through this and comment.
Thanks

[Imminst = pro murder (omega)]

I've been using a Pelargonium sidoides concoction for months now for my family and it does seem to stop colds, coughs, and sore throats as the clinical evidence indicates. Apparently, recently, a court case in Europe decided it was okay to call it a cure for the common cold. It is also stated that it works similarly with flu as on this site: http://www.herbalafr...Pelargonium.htm

I use the Nature's Way Umcka cold care brand which I get from Vitacost and make sure to keep some extra bottles on hand. Whenever we feel any symptoms we start three teaspoons a day and usually the whatever it was is gone in a day or overnight.

Would do good to see if there are any studies specifically concerning flu and the African geranium extract. There are about colds, coughs and sore throats that you can find with a bit of searching.

[tham]

http://www.naturalnews.com/026185.html

[Matt]

I still think people should be a bit cautious and do a bit of preperation before september and october comes around. All the big pandemics started off mild, then died down only for it to come back at the end of the year much worse. Supplements listed on this thread are pretty good. At the risk of sounding a bit paranoid, so apart from supplements is it worth stocking up any particualr foods, and other things if there were to be quarantines as there were in mexico.

World 'getting closer' to swine flu pandemic
http://www.physorg.c...s163168813.html
The world is "getting closer" to a swine flu pandemic as the virus shows early signs of spreading locally in countries outside the Americas, a senior World Health Organisation official said Tuesday.

"Globally we believe that we are at phase five but are getting closer to phase six," said Keiji Fukuda, WHO assistant director-general, referring to the agency's six-level pandemic alert system.

Phase five signals that a pandemic is imminent. The world would be in an official pandemic, marking global spread, at phase six.

"It is clear that the virus continues to spread internationally. We know there are a number of countries that appear to be in transition moving from travel-related cases to established, more established, community-type spread," said Fukuda. He noted in particular that countries like Britain, Spain Japan, Chile and Australia are showing larger numbers of influenza A(H1N1) infections, "with some early spread into communities."

Some 18,965 cases of infections including 117 deaths have been reported to the WHO by 64 countries around the world. Fukuda said the WHO is developing ways to assess the severity of the disease. WHO officials said last month they were taking into account issues such as the severity of the virus, possible changes in the pattern of illness, its impact on poor countries or circulation in the southern hemisphere where it could mix with seasonal flu.

[VespeneGas]

According to that article, 0.6 percent of those infected have died from H1N1, so I can't really get ruffled yet. Though maintaining a strong immune system is a good defense against cancer, chronic inflammation, heart disease, etc, so I guess I'll keep taking my egcg and vitamin D

[Matt]

Yes it hasn't showed any real significant threat at the moment but this is still consistent with previous pandemics. The point is that every pandemic starts off mild, it goes away through the summer and comes back stronger in the autumn and winter which is when it became a more severe illness. Pandemics killed people in their teens and 20's... people with strong immune systems. Otherwise there is some evidence for EGCG being a significnt benefit for prevent and shortening influenza infections... see my previous post on this thread. So I still think this is one to watch, based upon the fact of the pattern from previous pandemics.

[Dmitri]

I still think people should be a bit cautious and do a bit of preperation before september and october comes around. All the big pandemics started off mild, then died down only for it to come back at the end of the year much worse. Supplements listed on this thread are pretty good. At the risk of sounding a bit paranoid, so apart from supplements is it worth stocking up any particualr foods, and other things if there were to be quarantines as there were in mexico.

World 'getting closer' to swine flu pandemic
http://www.physorg.c...s163168813.html
The world is "getting closer" to a swine flu pandemic as the virus shows early signs of spreading locally in countries outside the Americas, a senior World Health Organisation official said Tuesday.

"Globally we believe that we are at phase five but are getting closer to phase six," said Keiji Fukuda, WHO assistant director-general, referring to the agency's six-level pandemic alert system.

Phase five signals that a pandemic is imminent. The world would be in an official pandemic, marking global spread, at phase six.

"It is clear that the virus continues to spread internationally. We know there are a number of countries that appear to be in transition moving from travel-related cases to established, more established, community-type spread," said Fukuda. He noted in particular that countries like Britain, Spain Japan, Chile and Australia are showing larger numbers of influenza A(H1N1) infections, "with some early spread into communities."

Some 18,965 cases of infections including 117 deaths have been reported to the WHO by 64 countries around the world. Fukuda said the WHO is developing ways to assess the severity of the disease. WHO officials said last month they were taking into account issues such as the severity of the virus, possible changes in the pattern of illness, its impact on poor countries or circulation in the southern hemisphere where it could mix with seasonal flu.

I'm sure there will be a vaccine by fall.