All:
I was just asked by PM about the latest, rather strong confirmation of an elevated risk of cancer in users of folic acid supplements. The person noted that the mechanism is probably because of increased folic acid availability for nucleotide synthesis, for which many cancers have an unusually-high demand, so that the risk would be to people who already have a cancer in their body, whereas "the rest of us" wouldn't be providing 'permission' for growth to nonexistant cancers.
The same basic issue has been raised in other instances, as with benfotiamine and putative telomerase activators. I keep meaning to do a big post on this subject, and keep being put off by the detailed argumentation and documentation that would be required to lay out the case in detail (see eg. Niner's intelligent (but flawed ) analysis of the telomerase case). I'm going to just accept for the moment that I'm not going to get around to such a post for the foreseeable future, and make the broad point:
The thing is, everyone has a (pre)cancerous cell or 12 in hir body at any given time, and the great majority of men over 70 have actual, albeit generally slow-growing, prostate cancer tumors:
(1)Several autopsy studies published in the 1940s and 1950s confirmed high rates of tumour foci in the prostate gland, including the study by Franks, which estimated that 31% of men aged >50 years who died of other causes had some evidence of prostate cancer. A recent autopsy study on 314 African American and 211 Caucasian (sic) men aged 20–80 years who died of trauma in Detroit ... demonstrated a high prevalence of prostate cancer that increased progressively with advancing age and was similar at all ages in African American compared with Caucasian men (around 10%, 30%, 40%, 45%, 70% and 80% in the 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th and 8th decades, respectively). When this ubiquity of microscopic prostate cancer is placed in the context of lifetime risks of clinical or fatal prostate cancer (about 10% and 3%, respectively for a man aged 50 years in the USA), these data indicate that local or distal progression of early cancer is far from inevitable within a man's lifetime. Put another way, only a minority of prostate tumours are highly aggressive and life-threatening, while the majority are slow-growing and indolent.
The autopsy studies, started by Rich, offer insights into prostate cancer aetiology. For example, the similarity in prevalence of autopsy prostate cancer in African American and US white men is mirrored by findings of little variation in autopsy prostate cancer between countries. Yet, paradoxically, compared with US white men, African American men have higher prostate cancer incidence (137 per 105 vs 100 per 105) and mortality rates (34 per 105 vs 16 per 105) and there are 60-fold and 12-fold higher rates of prostate cancer incidence and mortality, respectively, amongst African American vs Chinese men. The explanation for the inconsistencies in patterns of disease between autopsy compared with incidence and mortality data remain unclear, but could reflect a role for environmental or genetic factors in prostate cancer progression, and/or indicate differences in the availability and use of healthcare.
The question is whether the cell has the time to acquire the additional mutations, or blood supply, or whatever, before the senescence and apoptosis machinery or the immune system takes care of it. Giving it any extra growth stimulus or removing any barrier opens up its chances of escaping controls. And of course, an extra round of replication is not just extra time, but extra risk, since
Replication errors are the main source of mutations. It has been estimated that uncorrected replication errors occur with a frequency of 10-9 - 10-11 for each nucleotide added by DNA polymerases. Since a cell division requires synthesis of 6 X 109 nucleotides, the mutation rate is about one per cell division.
Similarly, in principle high IGF1 "ought" to be safe unless you have a pre-existing cancer -- but in the population, naturally high IGF1 is linked to increased risk of colon, ovarian, and other cancers.
The creation of any kind of permissive environment for an unregulated round of cell division is a bad situation, and doing so voluntarily with a convenient capsule for a few hours every day for decades is an exceptionally poor one.
-Michael
1: Martin RM. Commentary: prostate cancer is omnipresent, but should we screen for it? Int J Epidemiol. 2007 Apr;36(2):278-81. PubMed PMID: 17567642; PubMed Central PMCID: PMC2764984.