8 replies to this topic

[Guest]

I am curious how people in this forum judge the chances for people of various age to actually reach actuarial escape velocity. For those of you unfamiliar with the concept, it means:


" Life expectancy increases slightly every year as treatment strategies and technologies improve. At present, more than one year of research is required for each additional year of expected life. Actuarial escape velocity occurs when this ratio reverses, so that life expectancy increases faster than one year per one year of research, as long as that rate of advance is sustainable. "



But be aware, that we are talking about practical availability of treatments! For example today's headlines about research progress in cancer treatments might be benefical for young people later in their life, but do not necessarily help today's cancer victims in their 70s or 80s. Furhtermore I'd like to focus on technologies that are state of the art in their time and not purely experimental treatments only accessible by a few wealthy individuals.


In addition, as this is a life extension forum, let us just consider people with a generally healthy life style; e.g. today's average 50 or 60 years old who do not smoke, do not drink excessivly, have a "good" diet and are not severly overweight.

[niner]

When I voted, I interpreted it as 'who will be the oldest person to reach LEV'. I said people currently in their 50's, since some of them could reasonably be expected to live another 40 years with no further developments in medical science, and over the next 40 years, I think we are going to see a LOT of useful new developments, possibly even experiencing something like the Singularity. I hope that I'm being conservative about picking this generation as having the first member. Since I now see that you're asking for the generation for which LEV will become commonplace, I guess I'll say people in their 40's, since as soon as it's shown to be possible, it will probably catch on pretty fast.

[okok]

Hm, maybe for the rich. It's good to be optimistic, but a look at our current health system, the valley of death and general oppressive governmental mentality - hell, you even have to worry about your supps - is quite sobering. In contrast to the recent exciting technological developments I don't see much reason for a sea change in this department. But let's hope for ®evolution.

[Guest]

I guess this comic fits the matter pretty well:

[revenant]

Hm, maybe for the rich. It's good to be optimistic, but a look at our current health system, the valley of death and general oppressive governmental mentality - hell, you even have to worry about your supps - is quite sobering. In contrast to the recent exciting technological developments I don't see much reason for a sea change in this department. But let's hope for ®evolution.

Though I tend to agree..that's just runcible

[mikeb80]

LOL funny and a bit sad at same time!
Sometimes a picture is worth a thousand words.

But I still hope that the change will happen in "40-50" years LMAO
probably because I'm somewhere between the kid on the left and the middle aged man in the center (I'm 32 years old).

I tend to be moderately optimistic, but I have two big worries:

1)Some nasty cancer that could kill me in my 60s or 70s... like happened to some members of my family...
2)The first generation of effective anti-aging therapies / drugs could be way too expensive for ordinary people.
Something like space tourism. Today is "AVAILABLE"... but only if you are a VERY rich tycoon and you pay 10-15 millions dollars to some space agency.

Edited by mikeb80, 17 September 2012 - 05:35 AM.

[corb]

I'm thinking some people in their 30's might get lucky. I'm 25 by the way and that comic is funny and horrifying at the same time.
I hope medicine in 25 years would have made at least some headway to actual life extension.

2)The first generation of effective anti-aging therapies / drugs could be way too expensive for ordinary people.
Something like space tourism. Today is "AVAILABLE"... but only if you are a VERY rich tycoon and you pay 10-15 millions dollars to some space agency.

There's a good chance they will cost a lot but not quite so much that an middle class worker won't be able to buy them if he really wants too, medical companies gain their main income from the average Joe.

They're already working on TORC1 inhibitors and I can bet they'd cost a lot when they get on the shelves in a decade. But not because they're all that hard to produce.

[Alizee]

Honestly, I don't know. I'll assume the worst. 100 yrs from now. So not my generation most likely except the very very old, probably the people being born in 2020s, more so 2030s, will see something.

So prolonging life right now is the only solution, since this is all we "you" have. Prolong it. Do whatever it takes to make it.

I do have a more optimistic view that life can be extended, so if you're 30-40 today you can hit 120-130. But only if you live long enough and can afford it to see it happen.

Edited by Alizee, 17 October 2012 - 07:59 AM.

[Ekaterinya Vladinakova]

I recall a few years ago, 4-8 years ago Aubrey De Grey believes the first 60 year old was already born. This sounds absurd but when you look at all the 70 year olds today, some actually look like they are in their 40s with a life expectancy perhaps 20-30 years above average. The average 70 year old, unfortunately without cryonics won't make it, but there are so many people in this world there has to be some 70 year olds who are biologically 40 who has a decent amount of income.

Also keep in mind that aging is going to be attacked on several fronts, including artificial means via mechanical like nanotech to repair cells and destroy hostiles like cancer and pathogens in the near future.

Edited by Alasuya Lushanova, 02 December 2013 - 03:53 AM.