59 replies to this topic

[Matt]

Ive been following up the story on this bird flu and it does seem quite worrying, Should we be worried when it hits our country or do we get ready for it now?

Im thinking about what we could to to even have a chance of surviving a outbreak, because they are serious. Take a read of this

" Here’s why you need to pay attention to this story: the lethality rate for this virus, in its current genetic form, is over 70%. Think about that for a moment: the 1918 flu pandemic killed between 2 and 5% of the people who contracted it and probably killed as many as a 100 million people worldwide. "

So think about it, 70% who get infected dies from it ... [mellow]

Ive been looking on the net to find some ways to get ready, if it ever did happen. http://www.ideamarke...articleid=38169

I found this site. It mentions a " NANOMASK" Ive looked on the site but I cant find how to buy one...

Also Is there anything that we could seriously boost our immune system, to fight it.

[Infernity]

Well yes whoa182, but it was at 1918! No one dies from flu in this days, only primitive tribes...
Look how many dies in this days from AIDS and cancer, perhaps, look on the most deadly disease, which always were, look at the AGING PROCESS!!!


Yours truthfully
~Inferity

Edited by infernity, 17 October 2005 - 09:02 PM.

[Matt]

I think you should do some research Infernity.

We do NOT have any immunity at all against bird flu. At the moment its rapidly mutating and if it mixes with human flu it could create a dangerous hybrid which we could do absaloutly nothing to stop it. It totally eats away your lungs, you also have to catch it very early, but symptoms can start anywhere and its not like the normal flu that goes around every year.

If it does get to pass between humans it will probably spread very rapidly, I think you are underestimating the danger from this.

The difference is Infernity.

2-3 % of people died after getting infected with Spanish flu, Yes that was in early 20th century. Killed 50-100 million with a Death rate of 2 %
76% of people DIE after getting infected with Bird flu , Its the 21st century. Think how many could die with a rate of 76%

you work it out

Edited by whoa182, 25 February 2005 - 10:06 PM.

[Infernity]

Oh, sorry whoa182, my mistake then, I didn't pay much attention, I thought you are talking about a regular flu, I thouht you were talking rubbish, seem not. Sorry, guess it is scary after all...

Yours truthfully
~Infernity

[wraith]

Infernity, even 'regular' flu is pretty scary. I once had an interesting conversation with some scientists about 'what scares us'; included in the discussion were things like engineered bioweapons. A distinguished immunologist said 'flu scares me'. Hospitals would become quickly overwhelmed by a pandemic. Most of my husband's gandfather's siblings died in the 1918 pandemic.

http://www.pbs.org/w...ies/dm18fl.html

[Matt]

The problem now is, Think about all the transport we have between cities... Viruses could spread much easier now than ever.

Its quite scary, Soon as Anything is mentioned on the news about people being affected in a city area in the UK. Thats the time I start to take it much more seriously.

So just watch out for it, could happen at anytime.

[Infernity]

wraith, we kinda had here a pandemic of flu, it was terrible, but all of us are still alive... I mean evey second person over this area got flu! I am still here at home because of it, but like three quarters of my class was sick anyway! It is hard, but as you see no one here died from it, we live in 2005, not 1918. The bird flu is something else, much more deadly.

Yours
~Infernity

[Matt]

So does anyone have ideas about protecting ourselves against an outbreak if it were to happen?

I mean, would heavy supplementation even have an effect against such a virus?


wake up people lol

[Matt]

We are seeing news EVERYDAY on this now..
http://news.bbc.co.u...lth/4295649.stm

Experts say it is no longer a case of if,  but when a pandemic of bird flu hits the human population

Some countries have already started stockpiling drugs and testing vaccines to beat the virus.

The UK government has been criticised for being slow on the uptake, but is expected to announce its full pandemic plan in coming weeks.

We have to make up our minds now before it arrives on our doorstep

Professor John Oxford of Queen Mary's Medical School, London

The World Health Organisation (WHO) recently urged all countries to develop or update their influenza "pandemic preparedness plans" after experts estimated anywhere between two and 50 million people could die if a pandemic hits and the world is not prepared.

Good health care will play a central role in reducing the impact, yet the pandemic itself could disrupt the supply of essential medicines and health care workers could fall ill.

Pandemic threat

Even in the best-case scenario, two million to seven million people would die and tens of millions would require medical attention, WHO says.

Experts have used their knowledge about past pandemics, such as the 1918 Spanish flu outbreak, and their experience with the strain of bird flu that has killed 42 people in Asia since 1997, to make a prototype vaccine.

If this strain, called H5N1 and which spreads from birds to humans, mutates to spread between humans, scientists believe this vaccine should help beat a pandemic.

However, a different strain might mutate to cause a pandemic.

By having stocks of the prototype, scientists will be able to make modifications to the vaccine so it is effective and countries will be able to test things such as the optimal dose of vaccine required and manufacturing capacity.

While this is happening, antiviral drugs can be used to decrease the risk of developing influenza and reduce the severity of illness.

Recipe for a pandemic
A novel virus to which the community has no or little immunity
A virus that can replicate in humans and cause serious illness
A virus that can be passed directly from human to human
Source: WHO

US, French and Italian governments have heeded WHO's advice and all have placed orders for the vaccine. As yet, the UK has not.

A spokeswoman from the Department of Health said: "We are very close to finalising a new plan for potential flu pandemics, which will take in the latest advice, technology and medicine.

"The department does not believe stockpiling vaccines is the best course to follow, as we cannot be sure what mutation of the virus would be involved in any pandemic."

Window of opportunity

Professor John Oxford, virologist at Queen Mary's School of Medicine, said this was disappointing and could leave the UK vulnerable.

"There is a window of opportunity here now where we can begin to prepare ourselves," he said.

"But that window will close over coming weeks and months, so the sooner we act the better.

It might be like SARS where it can be contained at the early stage

Dr Alan Hay, director of the World Influenza Centre in London

"The big time bomb here is that once there is 100% evidence of human to human spread it will be too late to do anything about it. Once it starts it's likely to move quickly.

"We have to make up our minds now before it arrives on our doorstep."

Professor Oxford warned that once vaccine and antiviral drugs were ordered, it would take several months for the supplies to be made and delivered.

He said Canada and Australia had already ordered enough to protect a quarter of their populations.

He believes other countries should do the same and that richer nations should buy extra to donate to poorer countries.

"By ring-fencing an early outbreak there, we can help protect ourselves here," he said.

Professor Albert Osterhaus, professor of virology at Erasmus University Hospital, in Rotterdam, said most European countries were relatively unprepared.

"National plans have been established but a lot of gaps have got to be filled in," he said.

"As well as drugs and vaccines, there are other things that are logistic, like hospital capacity."

In the event of an outbreak, patients would need to be isolated to prevent them infecting other people and close contacts, such as close family members and hospital staff, might need treatment.

He said it would be helpful to have a pan-European policy rather than each country working on its own.

[b]Buying time

But Dr Alan Hay, director of the World Influenza Centre in London, said: "I would not say we have been dragging our heels.

"To say that one country is more prepared than another is to assume that one can be very well prepared.

"If a pandemic strikes without warning then really there is only a certain amount one can do to combat the impact.

"We do not know what the scenario we might face is. It might be like SARS where it can be contained at the early stage."

Should early containment fail, once a certain level of efficient transmission is reached, no interventions are expected to halt international transmission, according to WHO.

The priority would then shift to minimising deaths and illness.

During pandemics, more severe disease tends to arrive with the second wave, it says.

Should this happen, a few more months might be available at the beginning of an outbreak to make more vaccine.

Each day gained could mean an additional five million doses of vaccine, WHO estimates.

[wraith]

supplements - I dunno. Supplements after becoming symptomatic - I kind of doubt it would help, but I'd try it anyway (what have you got to lose?).

Apparently, with the swine flu of the 1918 pandemic, you could feel fine in the morning and be dead by night time. At least I think that's what I read.

Surgical masks and gloves to prevent transmission, maybe.

What supplements are people using for flu these days... I think I heard good things about NAC. Maybe olive leaf or cordyceps. zinc? who knows.

[Matt]

Well as soon as it hits the UK all public gathering places are going to be closed and I guess all I can do is stay healthy and Stay when it happens...

If the public are sensible enough and aware, hopefuly with co-ordination such a virus could stopped from killing millions.

Maybe our chances now, because of Communication and plans will be MUCH MUCH better than any other past flu pandemic.

[wraith]

'if the public are sensible enough and aware'

ROFLMAO

~

sorry, you are young and should be allowed your optimism and faith in humanity

[wraith]

Or maybe not... Perhaps you should know the world as it is.

If you are done worrying about bird flu, try reading Preston's 'The Demon in the Freezer' ~

p. 213

"'If you look at the real-world data from a 1972 outbreak in Yugoslavia, you find that the multiplier of the virus was ten: the first infected people gave it to ten more people, on average. Basically if you don't catch the first guy with smallpox before he kisses his wife, it goes out of control'..."

And then 'Imperial Hubris'

from pp. 154-5

"Until May 2003, al Qaeda did not have sufficient Islamic grounding on which to convincingly justify a WMD attack. In that month, however, a young Saudi cleric named Shayk Nasir bin Hamid al-Fahd published 'A Treatise on the Legal Status of Using Weapons of Mass Destruction Against Infidels'. The treatis is exactly what al Qaeda needed... The study is a lucidly written, comprehensive, and well-documented justification and authorization for using weapons of mass destruction against infidels - in this case, the United States."

and p.241

"To secure as much of our way of life as possible, we will have to use military force in a way America used it on the fields of Virginia and Georgia, in France and on Pacific islands, and the skies over Tokyo and Dresden. Progress will be measured by the pace of killing and, yes, by body counts. Not the fatuous body counts of Vitenam, but precise counts that will run to extremely large numbers. The piles of dead will include as many or more civilians as combatants beceause our enemies wear no uniforms."

[mindprint]

whoa182,

You can buy the Nano Mask here:

http://birdfluprotection.com

The other things I have heard that would help are Tamiflu and gloves.

This thing scares me because my great grandmother and her mother were both killed by the Spanish flu of 1918. I hope they are wrong and it just goes away.

[Matt]

I just bought 5 masks, for me and close family. each mask only costing like $5 with 2x replacement filters and I got 1 pack of 10 replacement filters for $4 i think .. Which is around £2.55 (GBP)

Better to be prepared than not [thumb]
http://www.emergency...ge/NanoMask.htm

Emergency Filtration Products
Phone: 702-558-5164
Fax: 702-567-1893
www.emergencyfiltration.com

[mindprint]

"Better to be prepared than not" - I agree.

I just picked up some latex gloves from Home Depot.

Another place to pick up nanomasks:

nano masks

[thumb]

[Matt]

Heres another link

http://birdfluprotection.com/

I got the little blue mask here

I'm armed with my nano mask and Green tea... hehe.


I think its a stupid idea not to prepare and think another outbreak wont happen. I hope everyone here has there nanomasks [lol]

[Matt]

Read this report also http://news.bbc.co.u...lth/4308872.stm

The flu that killed 50 million in 1918 is very identical to the bird flu going around now...

[Infernity]

Researchers reconstruct killer 1918 flu virus
Scientists hope discovery will help prevent future global outbreaks

[>] To the full article

-Infernity

[Mind]

I don't buy into all the hype. This bird flu story has been around for several years now. The so called experts keep saying it is going to ravage the world, and that no one will be able to stop it, and we are all going to die. Bullcrap I say. I don't think they have a clue what they are talking about. If this virus was sooooooooooo contagious it would have spread around the world already. Come on, think about it. Supposedly there have been a few cases of this so called deadly flu in southeast Asia each of the last three years. How did they contain it so well? Why didn't it spread? We are talking about areas of the world with very high population density. It would have to be a miracle for the flu to remain contained to just a couple people. I have heard it all, year after year, Ebola, Sars, Hanta Virus, HIV, West Nile, Bird Flu.....it goes on and on. If you believed these scaremongering virus experts, the world population should be decimated 20 times over already.

The worst thing we have to worry about are manmade viruses or other infectious agents. We have natural defenses against natural viruses. Unfortunately, world health leaders are way behind the eight ball in regards to battling human engineered threats. They are still talking and acting like it is 1918. WAKE UP!! It is 2005.

[bgwowk]

Mind, you are missing some important understanding about influenza viruses. These viruses originate in animal populations, which are constantly incubating new strains. Transmission to people is difficult because animal viruses did not evolve to infect humans. That's the stage we are now at with bird flu.

Then what happens is this key step: Someone with a conventional human-transmissible influenza virus gets bird flu at the same time. The animal virus exchanges genes with the human flu virus, giving it human-to-human transmission capability. The virus then takes off like wildfire, killing millions because the virus is so new there is no natural immunity. That's the biology of influenza pandemics. It happened in 1918, it happened in the 1960s with swine flu, and there's a good chance it will happen with this virus. The world is doing absolutely the right thing by preparing for this.

---BrianW

P.S. The only reason SARS didn't kill millions is because of decisive action to stamp it out, not people dismissing it.

[Matt]

I don't buy into all the hype. This bird flu story has been around for several years now. The so called experts keep saying it is going to ravage the world, and that no one will be able to stop it, and we are all going to die. Bullcrap I say. I don't think they have a clue what they are talking about. If this virus was sooooooooooo contagious it would have spread around the world already. Come on, think about it. Supposedly there have been a few cases of this so called deadly flu in southeast Asia each of the last three years. How did they contain it so well? Why didn't it spread? We are talking about areas of the world with very high population density. It would have to be a miracle for the flu to remain contained to just a couple people. I have heard it all, year after year, Ebola, Sars, Hanta Virus, HIV, West Nile, Bird Flu.....it goes on and on. If you believed these scaremongering virus experts, the world population should be decimated 20 times over already.

The worst thing we have to worry about are manmade viruses or other infectious agents. We have natural defenses against natural viruses. Unfortunately, world health leaders are way behind the eight ball in regards to battling human engineered threats. They are still talking and acting like it is 1918. WAKE UP!! It is 2005.

We are in 2005 you are right! and what we know so far is that bird flu killed 80% of people that get it (although numbers are not certain) . What does that tell you? It says that een with our technology today, we could see the same kind of death rates or more because of how easy viruses can travel with transport today.

I think it's damn silly to not be atleast a bit prepared for it, regardless of whether it hits or not... It's not like it's gonna make you bankrupt to get a few essential things. Your attitude to theats like this is what gets people killed. People usually have doubts the first time, just like what happend with hurricane katrina, but then when the second hurricane come everyone moved out quickly. [wis]

It's almost the same thing in this case.

[Mind]

Brian, I think you are missing the historical context. The world in 1918 was much different than the world of today.

1. It was at the end of WWI and large numbers of people were travelling across the globe to places they had never been before. It was probably the largest movement of people across the globe and Eurasia up to that point in human history. New strains of the flu were introduced to populations that had never been exposed. Ever since the advent of regular international air travel (circa 1950s), flu strains have had the opportunity to travel around the globe at will. Over this 87 year time frame (1918-2005) there has never been a flu outbreak remotely similar to that of 1918. Check the records, only 28,000 people in the U.S. died because of the "horrible, scary, deadly, contagious" 1968-1969 flu pandemic. When you consider that in the last couple of decades, in the U.S., an average of 40,000 people die of the flu every year , the "so called" pandemic of of 1968-1969 looks downright whimpy.

2. The world of 1918 had poor sanitation methods.

3. The world of 1918 had very poor health care as compared to today. No antibiotics meant that people who contracted the flu were also helpless against any bacterial infections such a pnuemonia.

4. Nutritional standards were non-existent. Nowadays many basic foods are fortified with vitamins, which no doubt helps keep people healthy. Aside: too bad so many people are overweight...it probably counterbalances the positive effects of any extra nutrients that are found in the food.

Another beef I have with the virus experts is that they haven't developed any new treatments to fight viruses. They are still relying on quarantine and vaccinations. Holy crap! They need move out of the 1950s and get some new ideas.

I hope you understand why I am so skeptical. Every single year for the last ten years we get these stories about the next pandemic, whether it be the flu or any of the other scary sounding diseases I listed previously. It never happens. They keep crying wolf and putting out these figures....100 million, 200 million, I have even heard a billlion people are going to die....it is just around the corner.....be scared....run and hide. Now President Bush is talking about quarantine if the "aweful, deadly, extremely contagious, super horrific" bird flu comes to the U.S.. Holy crap, do you want this president having even more control over the country. People are ready to make him dictator if the flu comes knocking.

Besides all this, the stress and worry about the flu supresses immune function. The more you worry, the more likely you are to come down with something.

[bgwowk]

Mind, I'm not saying that bird flu *will* kill millions in the U.S. But it could in Asia, and would in the U.S. too if serious preparations weren't made. Don't forget that ordinary influenza, to which we have natural immunity, kills thousands in the U.S. every year, sanitation and modern technology notwithstanding.

---BrianW

[sally]

Anyone have opinions about this?


http://www.orthomed.com/bird.htm

[Mind]

Don't forget that ordinary influenza, to which we have natural immunity, kills thousands in the U.S. every year, sanitation and modern technology notwithstanding.

Brian, perhaps you didn't read my previous post in its entirety.

Check the records, only 28,000 people in the U.S. died because of the "horrible, scary, deadly, contagious" 1968-1969 flu pandemic. When you consider that in the last couple of decades, in the U.S., an average of 40,000 people die of the flu every year , the "so called" pandemic of of 1968-1969 looks downright whimpy.

I am well aware that the flu is deadly. However, deaths in healthy young to middle aged people are extremely rare (in the west over the last 50 years). I have experienced severe flu at three different times in my life that I can remember. Each time, I was down for a full week. It seems to happen to me about once per decade. The one thing that jumps out at me, is that after each decade, there is no cure. Nothing. That is why I say we need new people and new ideas in the fight against viruses. The field of virology is dominated by scientists trained during (or by people of) the great vaccination successes of the mid 20th centruty. They have not moved on from that point in history. The flu vaccination trials have all been miserable failures as far as I can tell, and they have been trying it for over a decade now. I'll say it again, holy crap!, how many times are they going to beat their head against the wall before they change strategies? Yes, I know that if some super virus did spread around the world (however remote that chance would be), a vaccine would be the only hope for survivors. Unfortunately that would leave average people dead because politicians and their families would be the first to get the vaccine. It is a fix that would come waaaaaaaay to late for most of us.

Edited by Mind, 09 October 2005 - 01:39 PM.

[Mind]

Matt, you are right. People should be prepared. Staying healthy through a good diet and exercise is our best bet.

However, hysteria about Katrina and the bird flu are different in degree. Everyone knew what would happen if a major hurricane hit New Orleans. Warnings had been issued for many years, but only amongst a small group of people (New Orleans residents, FEMA, hurricane experts...etc) What is different about the bird flu hysteria (or what ever other scary sounding virus happens to catch the media's eye) is that the projections and potential devastation are relatively unknown. This leads to irresponsible media reports and rumors. Also, the "scary virus" story is a worldwide phenomena. When more people are involved in the hysteria it is more likely that irrational actions will be taken.

[bgwowk]

Mind wrote:

The one thing that jumps out at me, is that after each decade, there is no cure. Nothing.

Have you never heard of neuraminidase inhibitors and M2 inhibitors? The problem is getting enough of these drugs fast enough to treat people in a pandemic.

The mortality rate of bird flu is 50%. You cannot compare a virus like this to any flu you've ever had.

Again, this flu may never acquire the genes it needs to make human-human jumps. But governments are absolutely right to make plans on the assumption it will.

---BrianW

[Lazarus Long]

Have you been reading the reports on the characteristics of the original bird flu that caused the 1918 epidemic?

While it sounds like hyperbole the claim is that it is a million times more virulent than common influenza and that it made the jump from birds to humans without an intermediary host. The current strain making its way across Asia and now in Turkey and Romania is transmitted from birds to humans but lacks human to human virulence. However that is a possible mutation that could mimic the 1918 variety.

The mutation occurred in a strain similar to what is now being seen.

It is unknown yet if we have retained immunity to the original strain but that is hypothesized by some.

Spanish Flu Virus
http://www.cidrap.um...spanishflu.html

Enhanced virulence of influenza A viruses with the haemagglutinin of the 1918 pandemic virus (abstract)

Experts Unlock Clues to Spread of 1918 Flu Virus

I happen to agree with you Mind that there is too much sensationalism and that we are not in 1918 working in the dark but I also feel that there is too much complacency and reticence to invest in prevention by those who think that we can routinely wait and confront these kinds of crises as effectively after the fact as we could by preparing and preventing.

Romania and Turkey report new bird flu outbreaks

[Lazarus Long]

This article should be added to the list above as more deliberate and informed rather than sensationalist.

Danger of Flu Pandemic Is Clear, if Not Present

By DENISE GRADY
Published: October 9, 2005

Fear of the bird flu sweeping across Asia has played a major role in the government's flurry of preparations for a worldwide epidemic.

That concern prompted President Bush to meet with vaccine makers on Friday to try to persuade them to increase production, and it led Health and Human Services Secretary Michael O. Leavitt to depart yesterday for a 10-day trip to at least four Asian nations to discuss planning for a pandemic flu.

But scientists say that although the threat from the current avian virus is real, it is probably not immediate.

Dr. Anthony S. Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said a bird flu pandemic was unlikely this year.

"How unlikely, I can't quantitate it," Dr. Fauci said. But, he added, "You must prepare for the worst-case scenario. To do anything less would be irresponsible."

Dr. Jeffery Taubenberger, chief of the molecular pathology department at the Armed Forces Institute of Pathology, said, "I would not say it's imminent or inevitable." Dr. Taubenberger said he believes that there will eventually be a pandemic, but that whether it will be bird flu or another type, no one can say.

The Bush administration is in the final stages of preparing a plan to deal with pandemic flu. A draft shows that the country is woefully unprepared, and it warns that a severe pandemic will kill millions, overwhelm hospitals and disrupt much of the nation.

What worries scientists about the current strain of bird flu, known as H5N1, is that it has shown some ominous traits. Though it does not often infect humans, it can, and when it does, it seems to be uncommonly lethal. It has killed 60 people of the 116 known to have been infected.

Alarm heightened on Thursday when a scientific team led by Dr. Taubenberger reported that the 1918 flu virus, which killed 50 million people worldwide, was also a bird flu that jumped directly to humans.

(excerpt)