Some scientists say it is too late, and humanity will end in 100 years, even if we do the right things now.
OMS say we will eat insect instead of meal in 20 years.
And this guy :
http://www.ted.com/t...th_is_full.html
So, is it definitely too late ?
Posted 21 May 2012 - 12:32 PM
Posted 21 May 2012 - 01:40 PM
Posted 25 May 2012 - 12:53 PM
Posted 03 June 2012 - 04:07 PM
Posted 03 June 2012 - 10:49 PM
Well given the world was going to end at least a few hundred times previously, I take anything like this with a huge grain of salt.
Oh and insects aren't that bad. Chilli meal worms and those scorpions in lollipops with a nutty flavour from Selfridges are gorgeous!
Posted 03 June 2012 - 11:09 PM
Some scientists say it is too late, and humanity will end in 100 years, even if we do the right things now.
OMS say we will eat insect instead of meal in 20 years.
And this guy :
http://www.ted.com/t...th_is_full.html
So, is it definitely too late ?
Edited by The Immortalist, 03 June 2012 - 11:09 PM.
Posted 03 June 2012 - 11:22 PM
Posted 04 June 2012 - 03:05 AM
Posted 04 June 2012 - 01:33 PM
Posted 04 June 2012 - 10:28 PM
You're both pretty sure the disasters won't affect you. Hubris?
Posted 06 June 2012 - 05:22 PM
( // quote shortened // )... underpopulation does not seem to be an issue. My vision also kind of depends on when we will have colonized Mars and other planets. Does anybody know of a timescale for the latter?
Edited by robomoon, 06 June 2012 - 05:24 PM.
Posted 06 June 2012 - 06:21 PM
First, scientists are actually busy doing the kind of research the public admires the most so that makes the governments fund it the most so that makes the companies sell research equipment the most so that makes research experiments growing the most so that leaders in research groups get famous the most because they are are doing research in the greatest research experiments with most of the research equipment. Therefore, these scientists are receiving the greatest honour since such honour will be granted by organizations who are honouring those scientists doing the greatest research experiments they are accomplishing with most of the research equipment from companies that sell research equipment the most since governments are financing the purchases of research equipment the most because they are funding it the most. They are funding what the public admires the most because that is what they feel is science getting scientific the most.
With these trends in scientific research, is an infinite timescale for the colonization of mars optimally scientific?
Posted 07 June 2012 - 10:46 AM
Posted 07 June 2012 - 03:30 PM
( //Quote shortened // ) ... anyhow, infinite timescale?
Posted 07 June 2012 - 04:55 PM
Also citing the forum message by DAMABO posted 03 June 2012 (quote shortened): "... given our lifespans may become high enough to not 'need' a replacement, underpopulation does not seem to be an issue."
An infinite timescale makes an estimated event easy enough to calculate. If you with your relatives, partners, fellows, etc., as a society would not 'need' replacements, then it looks like you are betting on lifespans that would be long enough to choose rejuvenation over children. Since it does not look too problematic to get a clue about a time when ancestors of procreative humans have arisen, but very hard to calculate the probability for the end of an evolution in which their descendants would be gone, it can be practical to choose an infinite time. That is not so different from what can be tried with the concept of immortality. When life in your society is about to go on for a long time without births and deaths, your society might eventually be called immortals.
Citing from the article about the project Mars One referred through by the URL (digitaltrends.com/cool-tech/mars-one-plans-human-colonization-of-mars-by-april-2023/) in the above posting: "let us know in the comments below if you’d be willing to leave the comforts of Earth to spend the rest of your life..." Since your society want their lifespans getting higher, they may not want the rest of their life being finished before a time when some very improved rejuvenation therapy could become available by any means of plausible estimations. Do you even want to calculate a fixed period of time for the rest of your life or leave it an open question? If it remains an open question, would we even know when a project of settlement on Mars has been successfully accomplished? Only realize, the success of the project has been described as, citation: " Private corporations like ... are racing to become the next household name that children will be talking about for generations..." Generations means new birth rates and not higher lifespans, that makes things more complicated.
As an example about an infinite timescale: http://ec.europa.eu/...ications_en.htm is linking to the document "Guidance on the calculation, presentation and use of collective doses for routine discharges." It cites: "UNSCEAR (2000). Sources and effects of ionizing radiation". Volume 1: Sources. UN, New York (2000). According to the EU publication, estimates published in that volume needed an infinite timescale. For the European Commission, this source alone has not been sufficient for further studies. Considering it comes from the UN, would it not look very scientific for the public, at least within one decade or so?
Posted 10 June 2012 - 12:50 PM
Posted 19 September 2013 - 05:13 AM
Edited by Layberinthius, 19 September 2013 - 06:02 AM.
Posted 19 September 2013 - 09:33 AM
Posted 19 September 2013 - 09:49 AM
Posted 30 April 2014 - 10:21 PM
Well, after watching Collapse (2009?) I started to wonder....when, what if and how. (After some time spent I think scenario positive should happen. Wall of text.)
This 1hour+ move tells a story of 1 person who was collecting the data about oil scarcity that might be the problem in next few years.
Fun to watch, fun to think, fun to write !
Why I am even considering his words after studying finances and somehow beeing interesting in world?
Current world, without some ground breaking energy discovery is not sustainable.
Oil is a cornerstone of today's economy. Without fuel or with rising x1 x2 x3 prices of fuel there will be supply/demand shocks everywhere. But that would be normal, we adapt, consume less, price goes down. Problem is, it was only holding the growth of demand for oil. Now that China and many other countries use more and more oil (check out this chart) we have to re-calculate when will we have no more oil.
I've quickly searched for some study, and here it is: http://www.ey.com/Pu...-study-2013.pdf
If we take a look at the table and the row "Production" it seems that peak has already been reached in 2010.
Another sources:
As global oil production appears to have plateaued in 2005, some analysts say the world has already peaked. Fredrik Robelius of the Uppsala Hydrocarbon Depletion Study Group, however, predicts it will peak sometime between now and 2018 [source: ASPO].
What should happen after peak? Look for signs of inflation, unusual political moves especialy about energy sources (Ukraine, Russia and North Africa countries).
Very optimistic scenario:
In next few years we learn how to make nanomachines so we have better, lighter materials etc etc and also more effective solar power systems. We then run out of oil and gas, but convert cars to electric or hydrogen powered cars and obtain energy from sources like sun...of course there would be costs but bearable.
We will have internet
Positive scenario:
Oil prices hike very high as supply drops, but there is still left for decade or two, people convert to renewable and nat gas energy sources. Also, there is nuclear energy, which can help run electricity at homes. Transportation will become main hurdle, so it's the end of cheap goods made in China shipped anywhere. Production will again be more local, especially of non-durable goods like, eh, food. Production sites might have to be moved to near railroads(those which aren't already). As I think more about it, it strikes me that countries with nuclear energy might be way ahead of the rest.
It will hurt jobs etc but we won't see people starving on a global scale maybe...with lack of technology cities cease to exist, people move to places where they can produce food localy until one day happens optimistic scenario
There should be rapid changes in transportation - going back to railroads! With enough Nuclear energy it could probably be sustainable for a few decades untill we run out of it...
Negative scenario:
Oil price hike very high, supply drops sharply, supply of alternative energy sources won't keep up and that will result in big inflation, massive lay offs, food is too expensive for most of people so robbery starts, food becomes scarce (empty shops), end of monetary system -> goods exchanged for goods.
Main problems: not get eaten, not get beaten or shot, massive deaths and rotting corpses on streets->diseases, no healthcare, cities have no longer economical justification, but there can again be main market square and ruins no internet and mobile phones ! but maybe shortwave transmiters...
Nations that have the most oil left and functioning state will raid(pillage) other nations for food and place to live. You have to learn how to use firearms, but that might not prevent the case when there is good old school barbarian style raid. Of course mine field can prevent some of it
Of course Nuclear deterrents should hold some countries intact.
But hey, again some current renewable energy sources, coal and nuclear power should help.
Pros:
We gained a lot of knowledge during last few hundreds years, so IF there is peace between countries after the shock, then people will adapt.
If not, they will adapt but wars will continue for decades.
So what can I do?
If the peak is around 2016(wow, thats soon!) then things might get dirty as fast as around 2018-2022 tops. That would be at least 2x rise in price (just speculation on my side).
Then one of 3 earlier mentioned scenarios will follow(or mix of them).
In negative case, you would need to move(of course Earlier!) to a country that dominates now and possibly in next few years, economically and in terms of space(land, climate).
Again, lets speculate:
I guess Europe is bad - too many different nations, too many borders, but who knows.
In contrast Russia USA China South Africa, Australia, some of South America countries, Japan(well, besides beeing overpopulated), New Zealand...should be good choices.
Natural barriers again serve as a shield - thats why I put there Japan and Australia which are surrounded by sea/ocean. USA is obvious, but of course people would have to move from coastal areas to places with "free" land. Russia has lots of harsh terrain, but with current tech it should be easier, distance is a factor. Still huge coal and nat gas reserves. Sounds like a global winner. Now China infrastructure investments, rice fields as+, but population is way too high. South Africa (mostly RPA) - surrounded by ocean, desert etc. If we consider global warming (lets speculate that there is such effect), then it will be hard to live in many many places, some land will be flooded...problem is bigger now.
Ok so I've picked one place. The range of things you might need is so wide and costly even now, that it's hard to cover all aspects. There is safety so safe place with basement with super strong door, bulletproof windows..and then also it should be fireproof...and then someone can come with granades -> you would likely need monitoring system and fence with possible electric current attached on demand. That should keep most hostiles away. In case it fails you can negotiate or shoot, so firearms. I guess a basement or rather bunker in which you could spend around month, going outside once a week, should be enough to wait out first wave of hunger and hostility.
Ok then food(grain, tools to cultivate, preferably a horse, few pigs etc.) but livestock might get stolen or eaten by hostile strangers. Grains on the other hand would be pretty safe. I would speculate that some powdered whey, carbs etc in powdered form, when not opened, should be fine for a few years at least. Heck, maybe decades if it's very simple food. I wouldn't store canned food. Salt, peper and spices should be worth gold later. Trees that can give something to eat are great, as long as you can get it before other people do. The same with crops of course. Water - depending on your location is easy to get or hard to get.
Is Alcohol a bad thing in such desperate times? Easy to store high % spirit alcohol can work as a medicine or fuel. Own distillery tools could help to produce some later on. What about storage of un-opened supplements like vitamins, olive oil etc ? Water filters, and again tools if you have to dig or fix anything should be in place. Thats a lot of things.
Home-energy:
of course (depending on location)
- energy generators
- solar panels
- heat pumps
- state provided energy from coal etc
- wood stove
- any kind of batteries, energy storage
Transportation:
wheelbarrow
bicycle, also maybe hydrogen fueled bycicle in distant future
scooter, maybe
old school carriage and horses
There is probably more, but it's long enough post.
Edited by thedarkbobo, 30 April 2014 - 10:28 PM.
Posted 22 May 2014 - 06:18 AM
Nobody knows anything more than you or me. Whatever you think has just as great of a chance at being right than what those people say.
Posted 16 December 2015 - 08:02 PM
Edited by Multivitz, 16 December 2015 - 08:15 PM.
Posted 16 December 2015 - 08:26 PM
Edited by Multivitz, 16 December 2015 - 08:46 PM.
Posted 16 December 2015 - 08:42 PM
Posted 17 December 2015 - 10:12 AM
In each society and in eah country there are people, and fractions, who over-reproduce. They not only overpopulate, but also and as a side effect these people are the less needed from the society and they deal with crimes, prefer not to work or educate, use a lot of drugs. These people and fractions has to be viewd as the cancer cells in the human society. Simmilarly like the cancer they multiply uncontrollably and the organism doesnt detect them as a threat until it is too late. The government will see them as a threat only when decide to detrone it, and the ordinary people will see them as a threat only when they cut the head of some their familly relative.
Posted 17 December 2015 - 10:49 AM
Seivtcho, I said this to you a lot of times:
World birth rate has been continuously decreasing since at least 1950. Currently, the total fertility rate (number of children per woman in her entire life), worldwide, is 2.4. World population will begin to decrease around 2050.
Why do you still talk like there were an overpopulation problem?
Posted 17 December 2015 - 01:55 PM
They not only overpopulate, but also and as a side effect these people are the less needed from the society and they deal with crimes, prefer not to work or educate, use a lot of drugs. These people and fractions has to be viewd as the cancer cells in the human society. Simmilarly like the cancer they multiply uncontrollably and the organism doesnt detect them as a threat until it is too late. The government will see them as a threat only when decide to detrone it, and the ordinary people will see them as a threat only when they cut the head of some their familly relative.
My goodness! That's how Nazis talked about Gypsies and Jews. If the Internet is taken as a barometer it gives the impression the next concentration camps are just around..
Is it so difficult to learn from history?
Posted 17 December 2015 - 02:04 PM
This is exactly what I am talking about. You are uncappable to see the threat even if it is right infront of your eyes. You prefer to simply ignore its existence. This is a sure path to death. When you realize the facts, that will kill you, it will be too late.
P.S. I am not talking about Gypsies and Jews
Overpopulating fractions from each society, e.g. not all gypsies. Only those, who overpopulate with useless, dangerous and criminal biomass. And not only the gypsies. All biomass overpopulating fractions.
Posted 17 December 2015 - 06:38 PM
This is exactly what I am talking about. You are uncappable to see the threat even if it is right infront of your eyes. You prefer to simply ignore its existence. This is a sure path to death. When you realize the facts, that will kill you, it will be too late.
It's you who cannot see. I showed the data that support that there's no overpopulation, whereas you simply repeat the overpopulation mantra.
Posted 17 December 2015 - 08:39 PM
The population is expected to reach between 8 and 10.5 billion between the year 2040[10][11] and 2050.[12] In May 2011, the United Nations increased the medium variant projections to 9.3 billion for 2050 and 10.1 billion for 2100
https://en.wikipedia..._overpopulation
What do you call that, @Antonio?
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