Global Warming
#211
Posted 29 August 2007 - 06:01 PM
Despite the anti-forestry scare tactics of celebrity movies, trees are the most powerful concentrators of carbon on Earth
Dr. Patrick Moore is a co-founder of Greenpeace and chairman and chief scientist of Greenspirit Strategies Ltd. in
Vancouver.
Patrick Moore, Special to the Sun
Published: Wednesday, August 29, 2007
It seems like there's a new doomsday documentary every month. But seldom does one receive the coverage that Hollywood
activist Leonardo DiCaprio's latest climate-change rant, The 11th Hour, is getting.
When we're bombarded anew with theatrical images of our earth's ecosystems when the film opens across B.C. this Friday,
I'm concerned that we're losing sight of some indisputable facts.
Here's a key piece of information DiCaprio, collaborator and long-time activist Tzeporah Berman and the leadership of my old
organization Greenpeace are ignoring when it comes to forests and carbon: For British Columbians, living among the largest
area of temperate rainforest in the world, managing our forests will be a key to reducing greenhouse gases.
As a lifelong environmentalist, I say trees can solve many of the world's sustainability challenges. Forestry is the most sustainable
of all the primary industries that provide us with energy and materials. Rather than cutting fewer trees and using less wood, DiCaprio
and Berman ought to promote the growth of more trees and the use of more wood.
Trees are the most powerful concentrators of carbon on Earth. Through photosynthesis, they absorb CO2 from the atmosphere and
store it in their wood, which is nearly 50 per cent carbon by weight. Trees contain about 250 kilograms of carbon per cubic metre.
North Americans are the world's largest per-capita wood consumers and yet our forests cover approximately the same area of land
as they did 100 years ago. According to the United Nations, our forests have expanded nearly 100 million acres over the past decade.
The relationship between trees and greenhouse gases is simple enough on the surface. Trees grow by taking carbon dioxide from the
atmosphere and, through photosynthesis, converting it into sugars. The sugars are then used as energy and materials to build cellulose
and lignin, the main constituents of wood.
There is a misconception that cutting down an old tree will result in a net release of carbon. Yet wooden furniture made in the
Elizabethan era still holds the carbon fixed hundreds of years ago.
Berman, a veteran of the forestry protest movement, should by now have learned that young forests outperform old growth in carbon
sequestration.
Although old trees contain huge amounts of carbon, their rate of sequestration has slowed to a near halt. A young tree, although it
contains little fixed carbon, pulls CO2 from the atmosphere at a much faster rate.
When a tree rots or burns, the carbon contained in the wood is released back to the atmosphere. Since combustion releases carbon,
active forest management -- such as removing dead trees and clearing debris from the forest floor -- will be imperative in reducing
the number and intensity of fires.
The role of forests in the global carbon cycle can be boiled down to these key points:
n Deforestation, primarily in tropical forests, is responsible for about 20 per cent of global carbon dioxide emissions. This is occurring
where forests are permanently cleared and converted to agriculture and urban settlement.
Despite the anti-forestry scare tactics of celebrity movies, trees are the most powerful concentrators of carbon on Earth Dr. Patrick
Moore is a co-founder of Greenpeace and chairman and chief scientist of Greenspirit Strategies Ltd. in Vancouver.
http://www.canada.co...8492a462651&p=1
#212
Posted 02 September 2007 - 09:52 AM
I guess we better start wrapping those trees in fire retardant blankets when we hug them.... forests have a natural cycle of fires and regrowth but that global warming could upset the balance. If hotter and drier summers mean more frequent forest fires, that could well mean a net emission of CO2.
"If they become more frequent, then vegetation doesn't have time to grow back and the net effect is that you lose more carbon from the eco-system than the eco-system can recapture before the next fire."
#213
Posted 12 September 2007 - 04:59 PM
of Scientists Have Published Evidence Countering Man-Made Global Warming
Fears
Posted : Wed, 12 Sep 2007 14:58:42 GMT
Author : Hudson Institute
Category : PressRelease
WASHINGTON, Sept. 12 /PRNewswire-USNewswire/ -- A new analysis of peer-
reviewed literature reveals that more than 500 scientists have published evidence
refuting at least one element of current man-made global warming scares. More than 300 of the scientists found evidence that
1) a natural moderate 1,500-year climate cycle has produced more than a dozen global warmings similar to ours since the last
Ice Age and/or that
2) our Modern Warming is linked strongly to variations in the sun's irradiance. "This data and the list of scientists make a mockery
of recent claims that a scientific consensus blames humans as the primary cause of global temperature increases since 1850,"
said Hudson Institute Senior Fellow Dennis Avery. Other researchers found evidence that
3) sea levels are failing to rise importantly;
4) that our storms and droughts are becoming fewer and milder with this warming as they did during previous global warmings;
5) that human deaths will be reduced with warming because cold kills twice as many people as heat; and 6) that corals, trees, birds,
mammals, and butterflies are adapting well to the routine reality of changing climate.
Despite being published in such journals such as Science, Nature and Geophysical Review Letters, these scientists have gotten little
media attention. "Not all of these researchers would describe themselves as global warming skeptics," said Avery, "but the evidence
in their studies is there for all to see." The names were compiled by Avery and climate physicist S. Fred Singer, the co-authors of
the new book Unstoppable Global Warming: Every 1,500 Years, mainly from the peer-reviewed studies cited in their book. The
researchers' specialties include tree rings, sea levels, stalagmites, lichens, pollen, plankton, insects, public health, Chinese history
and astrophysics.
"We have had a Greenhouse Theory with no evidence to support it-except a moderate warming turned into a scare by computer
models whose results have never been verified with real-world events," said co-author Singer. "On the other hand, we have
compelling evidence of a real-world climate cycle averaging 1470 years (plus or minus 500) running through the last million years
of history. The climate cycle has above all been moderate, and the trees, bears, birds, and humans have quietly adapted."
"Two thousand years of published human histories say that the warm periods were good for people," says Avery. "It was the harsh,
unstable Dark Ages and Little Ice Age that brought bigger storms, untimely frost, widespread famine and plagues of disease."
"There may have been a consensus of guesses among climate model-builders," says Singer. "However, the models only reflect the
warming, not its cause." He noted that about 70 percent of the earth's post-1850 warming came before 1940, and thus was probably
not caused by human-emitted greenhouse gases. The net post-1940 warming totals only a tiny 0.2 degrees C.
The historic evidence of the natural cycle includes the 5000-year record of Nile floods, 1st-century Roman wine production in Britain,
and thousands of museum paintings that portrayed sunnier skies during the Medieval Warming and more cloudiness during the Little
Ice Age. The physical evidence comes from oxygen isotopes, beryllium ions, tiny sea and pollen fossils, and ancient tree rings. The
evidence recovered from ice cores, sea and lake sediments, cave stalagmites and glaciers has been analyzed by electron microscopes,
satellites, and computers. Temperatures during the Medieval Warming Period on California's Whitewing Mountain must have been 3.2
degrees warmer than today, says Constance Millar of the U.S. Forest Service, based on her study of seven species of relict trees that
grew above today's tree line.
Singer emphasized, "Humans have known since the invention of the telescope that the earth's climate variations were linked to the
sunspot cycle, but we had not understood how. Recent experiments have demonstrated that more or fewer cosmic rays hitting the
earth create more or fewer of the low, cooling clouds that deflect solar heat back into space-amplifying small variations in the
intensity of the sun.
Avery and Singer noted that there are hundreds of additional peer-reviewed studies that have found cycle evidence, and that they will
publish additional researchers' names and studies. They also noted that their book was funded by Wallace O. Sellers, a Hudson board
member, without any corporate contributions.
Unstoppable Global Warming: Every 1500 Years is available from Amazon.com:
http://www.amazon.co...s/dp/0742551172 /ref=pd_bbs_sr_1/102-6773465-0779318?
ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1189603742&sr=1-1
For more information, please contact Dennis Avery, Hudson Institute Senior Fellow
and co-author of Unstoppable Global Warming: Every 1500 Years, at 540-337-6354: Email: cgfi@hughes.net
Hudson Institute
http://www.earthtime...se,176495.shtml
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#214
Posted 12 September 2007 - 05:41 PM
http://en.wikipedia....udson_Institute
1) The levels of CO2, a known greenhouse gas are way higher than previously, even if an underlying 1500-year cycle is there.
2) All radar altimeters show a clear sea-level rise trend. Locally there are deiations, but globally the case seems quite clear.
3) Droughts may reduce the excess food supply, which is quite low at present already.
4) The sun nor the cosmic rays do not explain the warming of late
5) Where are the models that corroborate the sceptical view? Models are supremely important for understanding what's going on.
#215
Posted 17 September 2007 - 04:38 PM
http://www.esa.int/e...6F_index_0.html
The Northwest Passage is now open!:
http://en.wikipedia....rthwest_passage
#216
Posted 17 September 2007 - 06:02 PM
Satellites witness lowest Arctic ice coverage in history:
Keep in mind that when they say "in history", they mean 27 years.
#217
Posted 17 September 2007 - 06:14 PM
For EO data yes, but otherwise there are the records from whaling- and other ships. The recent decline is quite unexpected, the IPCC-models forecast the current arctic sea-ice extent to happen around 2035, and not today.Keep in mind that when they say "in history", they mean 27 years.Satellites witness lowest Arctic ice coverage in history:
#218
Posted 17 September 2007 - 06:16 PM
#219
Posted 17 September 2007 - 06:31 PM
and also,
Not that the media cares, but this Passage was also conquered several times in the 1940s (emphasis added):
Built for the Royal Canadian Mounted Police Force to serve as a supply ship for isolated, far-flung Arctic RCMP detachments, St. Roch was also designed to serve when frozen in for the winter, as a floating detachment, with its constables mounting dog sled patrols from the ship. Between 1929 and 1939 St. Roch made three voyages to the Arctic. Between 1940 and 1942 St. Roch navigated the Northwest Passage, arriving in Halifax harbor on October 11, 1942. St. Roch was the second ship to make the passage, and the first to travel the passage from west to east. In 1944, St. Roch returned to Vancouver via the more northerly route of the Northwest Passage, making her run in 86 days. The epic voyages of St. Roch demonstrated Canadian sovereignty in the Arctic during the difficult wartime years, and extended Canadian control over its vast northern territories.
http://www.newsbuste...-ignore-history
#220
Posted 17 September 2007 - 06:49 PM
And? The passage does not have to be ice-free for passing it as there can be cracks in the ice. Now it is ice-free, which is unprecendented during recorded history.Roald Amundsen, a Norwegian explorer who successfully navigated the Northwest Passage on August 26, 1905 (h/t Walt Bennett, Jr.):
#221
Posted 17 September 2007 - 07:24 PM
Promote clean energy. Construct incentives for clean living. Focus on technical solutions (see David Deutsch's TED talk). Voluntary open-source collboration will bear more fruit than punishing "evil-doers".
#222
Posted 17 September 2007 - 07:47 PM
Taxation can be a pretty effective way of constructing incentives.Promote clean energy. Construct incentives for clean living. Focus on technical solutions (see David Deutsch's TED talk). Voluntary open-source collboration will bear more fruit than punishing "evil-doers".
#223
Posted 20 September 2007 - 04:04 AM
SCIENCE JOURNAL
By ROBERT LEE HOTZ
We all make mistakes and, if you believe medical scholar John Ioannidis, scientists make more than their fair share. By his calculations, most published research findings are wrong.
Dr. Ioannidis is an epidemiologist who studies research methods at the University of Ioannina School of Medicine in Greece and Tufts University in Medford, Mass. In a series of influential analytical reports, he has documented how, in thousands of peer-reviewed research papers published every year, there may be so much less than meets the eye.
These flawed findings, for the most part, stem not from fraud or formal misconduct, but from more mundane misbehavior: miscalculation, poor study design or self-serving data analysis. "There is an increasing concern that in modern research, false findings may be the majority or even the vast majority of published research claims," Dr. Ioannidis said. "A new claim about a research finding is more likely to be false than true."
bla, bla, bla........
Every new fact discovered through experiment represents a foothold in the unknown. In a wilderness of knowledge, it can be difficult to distinguish error from fraud, sloppiness from deception, eagerness from greed or, increasingly, scientific conviction from partisan passion. As scientific findings become fodder for political policy wars over matters from stem-cell research to global warming, even trivial errors and corrections can have larger consequences.
http://online.wsj.co...3557627104.html
#224
Posted 21 September 2007 - 11:51 PM
http://www.terradail..._alarm_999.html
In Ladakh, glacier melt raises fears of water woes
http://www.terradail...r_woes_999.html
Arctic Ice Retreating More Quickly Than Computer Models Project
http://www.energy-da...roject_999.html
#225
Posted 23 September 2007 - 06:23 AM
Considering the global average since 1850 has been as far below the average for a lot longer than we've been above it, a better case could be made that we're heading to a ice age than a warming. At the very least common sense says nothing out of the ordinary is happening now.
#226
Posted 23 September 2007 - 10:59 AM
The average you quote is probably constructed from 1850 to today, so by definition half of the curve is below the average. The global changes seem to be accelerating so I would not claim that nothing out of the ordinary is happening - and neither do the scientists.Considering the global average since 1850 has been as far below the average for a lot longer than we've been above it, a better case could be made that we're heading to a ice age than a warming. At the very least common sense says nothing out of the ordinary is happening now.
#227
Posted 23 September 2007 - 02:18 PM
The average you quote is probably constructed from 1850 to today, so by definition half of the curve is below the average. The global changes seem to be accelerating so I would not claim that nothing out of the ordinary is happening - and neither do the scientists.
What accelerating? Surely you're not talking about the temperature. As a matter of fact, if anything it looks like temperatures peaked about 7 years ago. If that's true then the global warming theory is probably ass. (how much have CO2 emissions gone up in this time?) Right now we're only as far above the average as at other times we're below. Nothing looks unusual about it. There seems to be a natural oscillation between +.5c and -.5c average.
If we really were in the midst of global warming of the type we're told about (by algore) I think there should be something out of the ordinary happening to the global temperature.
#228
Posted 23 September 2007 - 02:50 PM
It seems you have missed the accelerating change that's happening in the Arctic (precisely where the models predict where the change should happen first and be the strongest). Unexpectedly disappearing sea-ice and very rapidly accelerating Greenland outlet glaciers don't seem usual to me at all. The global sea-level is rising 3.3mm/year, let's hope that trend will not accelerate as it would not be very good news, obviously.What accelerating? Surely you're not talking about the temperature. As a matter of fact, if anything it looks like temperatures peaked about 7 years ago. If that's true then the global warming theory is probably ass. (how much have CO2 emissions gone up in this time?) Right now we're only as far above the average as at other times we're below. Nothing looks unusual about it. There seems to be a natural oscillation between +.5c and -.5c average.
#229
Posted 23 September 2007 - 04:04 PM
It seems you have missed the accelerating change that's happening in the Arctic (precisely where the models predict where the change should happen first and be the strongest). Unexpectedly disappearing sea-ice and very rapidly accelerating Greenland outlet glaciers don't seem usual to me at all. The global sea-level is rising 3.3mm/year, let's hope that trend will not accelerate as it would not be very good news, obviously.
I've seen the reports about the Arctic ice melting. I assume the observed changes are accurate. The main question is why is it happening, and is it unusual?
What I've read is Arctic sea ice is melting and glaciers in Greenland and Antarctica that touch the oceans are receding. Other glaciers in the interior of Greenland and Antarctica are growing.
What this tells me is global warming is not the cause, but ocean temperatures might be. If we don't have man made global warming we probably don't have man made ocean warming either. What's causing it? How about underwater volcanic activity?
#230
Posted 23 September 2007 - 04:33 PM
The arctic sea-ice is diminishing because the arctic has been warming up rapidly. Indigenous people (Inuits) have also indicated that the climate is changing rapidly and that the change is not normal. The glaciers that "touch the oceans" are speeding up because increased meltwater from the surface of the glacier is getting under the glacier during summer, which reduces friction between the glacier and its bed. Current best estimates for both Greenland and Antarctica mass-balance are clearly negative, i.e. the possibly increased snowfall in the glacier interior is not nearly enough to compensate for the speed-up of the outlet glaciers.It seems you have missed the accelerating change that's happening in the Arctic (precisely where the models predict where the change should happen first and be the strongest). Unexpectedly disappearing sea-ice and very rapidly accelerating Greenland outlet glaciers don't seem usual to me at all. The global sea-level is rising 3.3mm/year, let's hope that trend will not accelerate as it would not be very good news, obviously.
I've seen the reports about the Arctic ice melting. I assume the observed changes are accurate. The main question is why is it happening, and is it unusual?
What I've read is Arctic sea ice is melting and glaciers in Greenland and Antarctica that touch the oceans are receding. Other glaciers in the interior of Greenland and Antarctica are growing.
What this tells me is global warming is not the cause, but ocean temperatures might be. If we don't have man made global warming we probably don't have man made ocean warming either. What's causing it? How about underwater volcanic activity?
#231
Posted 23 September 2007 - 04:41 PM
Since this warming you are referring to doesn't seem to be on a global scale you would have to refer to it as local warming. In other words it's not an indication of global warming.
#232
Posted 23 September 2007 - 05:01 PM
Climate-change affect high latitudes first, that's exactly what the models say. The smoking gun is there (CO2 etc.), and there are accelerating changes in high latitudes. How long do you think we should wait before getting worried?Since this warming you are referring to doesn't seem to be on a global scale you would have to refer to it as local warming. In other words it's not an indication of global warming.
#233
Posted 23 September 2007 - 06:07 PM
How long do you think we should wait before getting worried?
I can't answer that question, but considering that at present total global warming is zero degrees above what could be considered as an normal global temperature, it's obviously not now.
#234
Posted 23 September 2007 - 06:31 PM
There's no "normal" global temperature! The planet seems to be warming up and according to the best available models it will warm a lot more in the not-too-distant future. Why on Earth should we not take this threat seriously?I can't answer that question, but considering that at present total global warming is zero degrees above what could be considered as an normal global temperature, it's obviously not now.How long do you think we should wait before getting worried?
#235
Posted 23 September 2007 - 09:24 PM
There's no "normal" global temperature! The planet seems to be warming up and according to the best available models it will warm a lot more in the not-too-distant future. Why on Earth should we not take this threat seriously?
I agree there's no normal global temperature, but there is however a historic global average temperature. Ignoring the climate models and just analyzing the the data for the last hundred years or so, most of that time we were about .5c below the global average. It seems perfectly natural that we would spend some of the time, like now, .5c above the global average. What I'm saying is that there's nothing unusual about the current global average temperature.
#236
Posted 28 September 2007 - 09:49 AM
So you would like replace the current best climate models with a model that says just that soon the temperature will return to the 'historic average'? Not a very sophisticated or scientific approach.There's no "normal" global temperature! The planet seems to be warming up and according to the best available models it will warm a lot more in the not-too-distant future. Why on Earth should we not take this threat seriously?
I agree there's no normal global temperature, but there is however a historic global average temperature. Ignoring the climate models and just analyzing the the data for the last hundred years or so, most of that time we were about .5c below the global average. It seems perfectly natural that we would spend some of the time, like now, .5c above the global average. What I'm saying is that there's nothing unusual about the current global average temperature.
It's true that there's nothing unusual about the current global temperature, but as we know the greenhouse gases in the atmosphere are far from 'usual', and models predict quite strong warming already during this century.
#237
Posted 28 September 2007 - 02:17 PM
It's true that there's nothing unusual about the current global temperature, but as we know the greenhouse gases in the atmosphere are far from 'usual', and models predict quite strong warming already during this century.
If you look at the temperature graph I posted, it looks like the current warming seems to have started in 1975. The temperature seems to constantly rise except for a couple of five year periods until you get to 2000. Then the average temperature rise levels off. Based on the historic temperatures displayed on this graph, that's exactly what you'd expect to happen. It's already been more than five years without any additional rise in temperature, just like you'd expect. So far this year will be more of the same, or less.
Climate models don't predict a leveling off, so they are already wrong. If in the next few years the temperature resumes it's upward trend, like before 2000, then I might start thinking we have something to worry about, but we're not there yet. I want to see temperatures higher than what a graph of historic temperatures says is normal.
I do agree that we are at the point where the temperature shouldn't go up much more, or any, but we could stay here for three or four more years and still be considered normal. I believe the suns peak output is predicted for 2011. After that I would expect the temperatures to start falling. If they don't then something is wrong.
I believe the global warming alarmists know this too and that's why they're so shrill now. Once the temperatures start falling their agenda, whatever it is, will fail..
#238
Posted 28 September 2007 - 02:38 PM
Climate models don't predict the weather but trends, so it's not surprising at all that temperatures do not rise every year. It's good that you are open to the possibility that something out of the ordinary might be happening and that we'll know better in 5-10 years. I agree on this completely, the next few years should make a big difference, hopefully things are not much worse in 2012 than they are now.It's true that there's nothing unusual about the current global temperature, but as we know the greenhouse gases in the atmosphere are far from 'usual', and models predict quite strong warming already during this century.
If you look at the temperature graph I posted, it looks like the current warming seems to have started in 1975. The temperature seems to constantly rise except for a couple of five year periods until you get to 2000. Then the average temperature rise levels off. Based on the historic temperatures displayed on this graph, that's exactly what you'd expect to happen. It's already been more than five years without any additional rise in temperature, just like you'd expect. So far this year will be more of the same, or less.
Climate models don't predict a leveling off, so they are already wrong. If in the next few years the temperature resumes it's upward trend, like before 2000, then I might start thinking we have something to worry about, but we're not there yet. I want to see temperatures higher than what a graph of historic temperatures says is normal.
I do agree that we are at the point where the temperature shouldn't go up much more, or any, but we could stay here for three or four more years and still be considered normal. I believe the suns peak output is predicted for 2011. After that I would expect the temperatures to start falling. If they don't then something is wrong.
I believe the global warming alarmists know this too and that's why they're so shrill now. Once the temperatures start falling their agenda, whatever it is, will fail..
#239
Posted 30 September 2007 - 02:26 AM
Many of you are not as savvy at reading scientific bull crap as I am, so allow me to translate for you. Most of page 1 are the facts. Page 2 is the smoke screen that assures they won't get cut off from funds of any future studies they might want to do.
Never the less, some things from this study that are very interesting,
1. "the temperatures of the deepest seas rose by around 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) at least 1,000 years before sea-surface temperatures. "Even accounting for the uncertainties of the age of CO2, the deep sea warmed substantially before the CO2 began to rise,"
Ha, isn't that exactly what those pesky deniers said about the CO2. The CO2 rise follows the temperature rise 800 years or so, these guys say a 1000. It's also funny they offer no real explaintion how the sea bottom warmed up before the sea-surface.
2. "New evidence from a marine sediment core from the deep Pacific points to warmer ocean waters around Antarctica (in sync with the Milankovitch cycle)—not greenhouse gases—as the culprit behind the thawing of the last ice age."
They're implying the Milankovitch cycle is the likely cause but that's probably wrong and this is why.
3. "The amount of solar energy increased at the same time as this deep-sea warming," he says. "Sea ice around the Southern Ocean was withdrawing." According to the marine core sample, a full millennium passed—enough time for both the deep and surface waters to entirely switch places—before sea-surface temperatures and global atmospheric levels of CO2 began to rise.
They still fail to explain is how the deep sea warmed before the surface did. It's also interesting that they seem to think the SUN might have caused global warming then, but we think it can't cause it now.
4. This year, the sea ice around Antarctica grew to its largest extent since satellite observation began in 1979.
Sounds kind of cold doesn't it.
http://www.sciam.com...umber=1&catID=1
Edited by biknut, 30 September 2007 - 02:43 PM.
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#240
Posted 30 September 2007 - 02:30 AM
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