639 replies to this topic

[Johan]

According to my calculations, if the current trend continues, we're going to reach rank 100 sometime in the middle of March next year. That would be really nice!

Rank 199 on April 4th
Rank 176 on Jun 4th (61 days later)

199 * x^61 = 176
x = (176/199) ^ (1/61) = 0.99798857

and then:

176 * 0.99798857^y = 100
y = log(100/176) / log(0.99798857) = 281 days from now

Edited by Johan, 11 June 2008 - 09:13 PM.

[brokenportal]

Well lets step it up then. I dont know how to make this formal, but Im going to make at least my brother down load this folding program too. If we all got one more person then how far would we go up in rankings?

[Live Forever]

According to my calculations, if the current trend continues, we're going to reach rank 100 sometime in the middle of March next year. That would be really nice!

Rank 199 on April 4th
Rank 176 on Jun 4th (61 days later)

199 * x^61 = 176
x = (176/199) ^ (1/61) = 0.99798857

and then:

176 * 0.99798857^y = 100
y = log(100/176) / log(0.99798857) = 281 days from now

Yeah, it gets harder as you climb though, and takes more time to pass the teams ahead of you because they are better teams. As outlined in this thread, climbing from rank 500 to rank 400 was a whole lot easier than going from 300 to 200. (14 weeks vs 88 weeks) Of course, with the prize competition, we have gotten a boost, but it still will be progressively harder to climb each of the remaining 76 teams than it has the first 24 teams. (well, 23 if you are counting from 199 I suppose)

You can see the calculation for when we will overtake the teams ahead of us (assuming current pace) on this page: http://folding.extre...a...?s=&t=32461

However, we are currently 82nd on the "points today" list (and like 91st if you organize it by points this week), so we are in the top 100 currently as far as production is concerned, just not total points.

Edited by Live Forever, 11 June 2008 - 10:48 PM.

[dnamechanic]

According to my calculations, ...

Interesting model that you used, Johan.

... I dont know how to make this formal, but Im going to make at least my brother down load this folding program too. If we all got one more person then how far would we go up in rankings?

Thanks for your efforts, brokenportal. Maybe your brother will become quite interested in F@H and related areas.

If we all got one more person then how far would we go up in rankings?

If we all got one more person interested...? Who is all? All registered folders (293 or so)? All active folders (~80-85)? Imminst registered users and members ( 6,694)?

The answer of course is it depends...

The team is currently producing ~50,000 points per day(PPD). Rank depends on accumulated points. At current rank position, it is probably taking more than 20,000 PPD to just stay stationary in rank, not lose position. The higher the PPD, the higher and faster the team moves up in rank.

A single new folder with a single high powered computer could produce 4,000-5,000 additional PPD. Alternately, 20- 50 new folders with typical computers could produce 4,000-5,000 PPD. Either of these situations, or some combination would represent a significant increase in rank change rate.

A single new contributor, such as your brother would be very welcome. Larger numbers of participants helps to attract more participants. Every participant is very much appreciated.

Yeah, it gets harder as you climb though, and takes more time to pass the teams ahead of you because they are better teams.

Yes agreed. The teams in front are there for good reason.

Johan's model (being a nonlinear power curve estimation) takes some of the forward difficulty into account, at least in the near neighborhood of our current rank. But as I think as you are alluding to, at the more distant ranks, and longer times away from the present, the dynamics change in such a way as to make predictions difficult. Several things make predictions difficult, outside influences like the advent of the PS3 for example. Another is feedforward response of teams to perceived threats to their preferred rankings, for example the teams at rank 99 or rank 100 may make heroic efforts to not become dislodged. This may happen many times to differing teams before TLM faces the challenge. These are but two of many variables involved in rank movement that are difficult to quantify.

However, we are currently 82nd on the "points today" list (and like 91st if you organize it by points this week), so we are in the top 100 currently as far as production is concerned, just not total points.

Good observation. This is a necessary, but not sufficient, condition to making rank 100.

By the time TLM gets to rank 100, it is likely that the requirements for being there will be significantly increased over current requirements to be there.

Nevertheless, the TLM team is making good progress. The F@H Prize has had a noticable effect in team participation and the chances are pretty good that it will continue to encourage participation. With continual increases in computer number-crunching power, rank 100 and beyond are realistic goals.

[naapi]

You can see the calculation for when we will overtake the teams ahead of us (assuming current pace) on this page: http://folding.extre...a...?s=&t=32461

However, we are currently 82nd on the "points today" list (and like 91st if you organize it by points this week), so we are in the top 100 currently as far as production is concerned, just not total points.

I do not want to discourage anyone, but it is likely that it will take much longer than 281 days to reach position 100 in accumulated points. Johan's calculation method usess the period of one of the highest increases in TLM's PPD (April and May) - due to introduction of the FAH prize. It may be too optimistic to base forecast on this period.

There's one good page that summarizes all existing teams points and production and on that basis forecasts future ranks. See here: http://kakaostats.com/tr.php?t=32461

Unfortunately, it currently shows a date in mid 2014 as the likely date for TLM team to get to rank 100.

Now, there are reasons why we will likely hit that rank later and there are reasons why we would hit that day earlier.

One of the most important reasons that we'll hit that day later is that there are new teams appearing all the time. I have done a quick search and found out that out of the teams that have higher PPD than our team - 5 or 6 have been formed during the past 12 months. New teams will surely appear in the future, but fortunately there will be less and less of them that will have higher PPD than our team - it will become progressively more difficult.

The main reason that we will hit that day earlier is that our meme is stronger than most of the others! What's more alluring than eternal life, better - eternal youth! I'm pretty sure we will be able to come up with ideas that encourage new folders to our team and drive it forward faster than other teams. Let's all keep doing great work!

Again, I didn't want to discourage anyone - just the opposite. If we have a realistic view of what we can achieve and then move faster than that glidepath - it will motivate us. Sometimes if we fall behind our goals that have been set up too ambitiously we may become discouraged.
Let's roll up our sleeves and fold Success doesn't come easy, but when it comes it is sweet

Cheers,

Maciek_Kolodziejczyk

Edited by naapi, 13 June 2008 - 08:37 AM.

[dnamechanic]

Welcome Nevyl,

You are the 294th contributor to sign on with The Longevity Meme F@H team.

I did not see your username in the F@H Prize Registration Thread, please correct me if I missed it.

Registration is a requirement for Prize participation.

Thank you.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

Selected stats from Extreme Overclocking:

Team Rank - 174 (new record)
Current active contributors - 83
Points per Day (Avg. ppd) - 46,107

Other F@H related topics at the Longevity Meme Team Forum

[dnamechanic]

The Longevity Meme team is moving forward at a good clip.

The team folded 70,490 points in the last 24 hours.



Wondering how this came about rather quickly?

Take a look at this.

Chungenhung folded 26,812 points during the last 24 hours. Go, Chungenhung!


-------------------------------------------------------------------------

Selected stats from Extreme Overclocking:

Team Rank - 169 (new record)
Current active contributors - 79
Points per Day (Avg. ppd) - 53,267

Other F@H related topics at the Longevity Meme Team Forum

[dnamechanic]

Welcome naMretupmoC,

You are the 295th contributor to sign on with The Longevity Meme F@H team.

Thank you.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

Selected stats from Extreme Overclocking:

Team Rank - 169
Current active contributors - 80
Points per Day (Avg. ppd) - 52,384

Other F@H related topics at the Longevity Meme Team Forum

[dnamechanic]

Welcome David_John_Thompson,

You are the 296th contributor to sign on with The Longevity Meme F@H team.

I did not see your username in the F@H Prize Registration Thread, please correct me if I missed it.

Registration is a requirement for Prize participation.

Thank you.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

Selected stats from Extreme Overclocking:

Team Rank - 167 (new record)
Current active contributors - 74
Points per Day (Avg. ppd) - 56,413 (new high)

Other F@H related topics at the Longevity Meme Team Forum

[DaffyDuck]

I just signed on with my PS3.

[chungenhung]

registering for the new quarter competition.

[dnamechanic]

This is a copy of the entire Longevity Meme Folding@Home stats update from Stanford taken at 12:00 AM Eastern daylight time.

The accumulated points listed here, minus the starting points listed previously or earlier as separate posts in this thread, represent the accumulated points for the F@H Prize.

Likewise, the accumulated points listed here represent the initial conditions (starting values) for the second quarter F@H prize competition. The final scores will be determined by subtracting the points listed here from the corresponding values at 12:00 midnight, Eastern daylight time, on September 30th.

Progress towards the prize can be monitored in F@H Prize Progress Display thread.

Please list yourself as a participant in the Registration thread, it is required to compete for the prizes.

Points begin accumulating towards the prize only when you have registered.

The format of this list is:

Rank (based on accumulated points), Username, and Total Accumulated Points.

1 TMichael 3183795
2 JustEnough 1142737
3 Maciek_Kolodziejczyk 956962
4 chungenhung 511233
5 Maestro949 357756
6 cluless 309940
7 BrentErskine 271575
8 moontube 245784
9 oleds 236406
10 pacini 200841
11 quintin3265 168074
12 SETI146 131844
13 Jonathan_Pugh 129448
14 Vroeg 123152
15 Jimmy_Adams 111389
16 dreish 110913
17 Kjell_Ulstad 109390
18 Ben_Wraith 95917
19 johntroy 94141
20 VA_Dave 87750
21 PS3 87110
22 Fad36 86227
23 bwille24 83364
24 shepard 82915
25 Kyle65uk 82732
26 kcroombs 82458
27 frenchhorn1 81674
28 GuyBryant 79298
29 Alex_Jenkins 77549
30 sbehrens 76753
31 berend 75893
32 Professor_McGibs 73409
33 Barion 71854
34 Anonymous 68042
35 Keith_W._Allison 59933
36 aiguy 59773
37 Matt_Bowes 55335
38 perun 55334
39 Mercy 53470
40 cnorwood 51798
41 Dan_Cleveland 51732
42 ttlongmeme2 51644
43 Richard_Ringeisen 51026
44 Toni_Malin 49257
45 CosmicV 47466
46 kiloquad 46901
47 Celerity 46374
48 Fallaxus 46298
49 Daddy 44586
50 BramT 44121
51 reddhaven 42870
52 zahirsk 42315
53 West468 41376
54 michaelroyames 41046
55 buzcut 40000
56 Chana_de_Wolf 39606
57 kpschoedel 38882
58 Peter_Breyer 38606
59 Ishikawa_Minoru 37669
60 Ryan_Bates 35687
61 XLS1 35298
62 Xavier_de_B 33901
63 diablo678 33833
64 Abolitionist 33427
65 C_Philip 33264
66 LividBishop 32894
67 Adam_Spong 32875
68 DAVELIZA 32430
69 sJon_Piranha 32061
70 John_Hutchason 31699
71 ralyxx 31689
72 florinclapa 30419
73 GrumpyMrGruff 29392
74 ericthomasoliver 26542
75 Reason 24396
76 Joel_Morgan 24158
77 jrhall 23598
78 hmooers 22207
79 Eric 21458
80 parry 19949
81 PhaseMage 19484
82 Sacerdote 18435
83 Administrator 18388
84 Funki 18012
85 cwwiley 17600
86 acr2d 17368
87 JayDFox 16816
88 Dan 16370
89 Apocalyptic_Dogess 15724
90 LongandLasting 15254
91 maiganne 14382
92 dglen 14176
93 GazingMoon 14046
94 Sven 13775
95 Eli 13445
96 sigma957 13436
97 Mats_J. 12667
98 Steven_Wasick 12419
99 mitkat 12284
100 Grant 12026
101 DonSpanton 11740
102 Awake 11278
103 ntenhue 11263
104 Joseph_Henry 11195
105 Ryan_Kitchens 10977
106 John_Phillips 10951
107 Tony 10927
108 Jamison_Cooper 10784
109 Christopher_Wiley 10764
110 Shonghow 10737
111 woly 10617
112 Bart_Decker 10580
113 Namingway 10490
114 Ravenhearte 10237
115 EmperorChaos 10079
116 Munjaros 9958
117 DirtyErnie 9902
118 Mahdi_Pessarakli 9733
119 painlord2k 9502
120 mrfesta 9482
121 thughes 9449
122 Bionomica 9014
123 dennis1 8862
124 Xavier 8736
125 tman 8011
126 Traclo 7998
127 Erik_Hatfield 7914
128 hughbristic 7881
129 Kurzweil_Is_Insane 7846
130 iLLgiLL1200 7698
131 Stem_News 7366
132 Eric_Torske 7176
133 Narine_Stygar 6673
134 DRauch 6462
135 medina8304 6345
136 tweaver113 6232
137 Eric_Boyd 6164
138 John_G 6128
139 MvL1234 6120
140 Premal_Martin 5819
141 John_Phillip 5742
142 Vyntager 5703
143 WWW.MPRIZE.ORG 5385
144 Perdo 5359
145 Vapour 5334
146 erichb1 5216
147 Alex83 5001
148 Kaiser_Phillip 4979
149 Chad_Morningstar 4962
150 alex_kofman 4874
151 kevindewalt 4834
152 Gowain 4826
153 siberia 4818
154 James 4801
155 BRYNNinVA 4742
156 Benji_Pantera_Price 4633
157 Sou 4569
158 immortalgenes 4552
159 RichardLeis 4502
160 EntityOfOne 4286
161 johnblaze 4246
162 James_Hergert 4063
163 neyedlyg 4049
164 Jason_Miles 3872
165 Annabelle_et_Rom1 3750
166 trashy 3743
167 bamage 3595
168 JackAllenClark 3498
169 UmbraeNoctem 3467
170 whoa182 3394
171 andrew_archifam 3299
172 Rombus 3292
173 Jathan462 3228
174 Roderick_Williams 3203
175 cmoody 3181
176 GNeyedly 3180
177 Awake3 3041
178 nickptar 3037
179 Jason_Gagnon 2968
180 mariduru 2952
181 bsmall 2885
182 maul 2787
183 ryokoether 2750
184 Ibex_Anubis 2716
185 toxik 2670
186 Darren_Reynolds 2654
187 lssilva 2611
188 dopaminergic 2557
189 swink 2399
190 Perception 2398
191 Bneveux 2390
192 dennis 2388
193 magic1229 2382
194 kaworu 2330
195 eyu100 2328
196 brokenportal 2270
197 vampire 2162
198 Lucid_ 2074
199 Perry_Branson 2058
200 TerryDonaghe 2048
201 Cate1697 1971
202 Big_Cheddar 1955
203 Kralizec 1929
204 The_Eternal 1875
205 Nevyl 1874
206 Jenifer_Moody 1871
207 FractalFarm 1842
208 Tommi_Olanne 1746
209 Winterbreeze 1715
210 woccam 1628
211 Robbie_Realism 1604
212 y 1573
213 LoganRuns 1502
214 aidanpryde 1388
215 PDX_P 1373
216 calyban 1352
217 AaronCW 1330
218 isimplyexist 1295
219 afzal 1292
220 angrybarcode 1218
221 Sperry 1196
222 CG_Thomas 1188
223 john.phillips 1170
224 Abe 1159
225 JediMasterLucia 1082
226 Baldur_Orlygsson 1034
227 ccc5433 980
228 ioexception 963
229 cybergnu 930
230 Deffy 930
231 Kostas_Hatalis 914
232 Cameron_Ruggles 911
233 Shoe 910
234 mooshnz 831
235 Awake2 827
236 liorrh 817
237 Ace-Man 817
238 Francois_Wirion 792
239 AgeVivo 781
240 ttlongmeme 771
241 PS3aiguy 750
242 ssokolowski 744
243 Sigma 682
244 naMretupmoC 682
245 Maestro 668
246 FutureSkullyCom 661
247 Jeff 644
248 fabrulana 620
249 ME 612
250 Mondey 600
251 StephenGordon 599
252 Juanjo 588
253 David_Harris 575
254 clueless 574
255 uavshadow 574
256 okami30 543
257 Isidore321 505
258 _ 500
259 mitkat 480
260 Loliks 473
261 marks_ed209 459
262 The_Moose 396
263 tmourot 387
264 tomoltk 374
265 jm 358
266 David_Spelts 345
267 renton_imminst 343
268 Fritz35956 343
269 duri8an 319
270 EastLondon.E13 300
271 Christian 300
272 Patrick 263
273 TMicahel 244
274 Aegist 243
275 jadair 237
276 forus 226
277 Kennita 225
278 indolering 220
279 Kelvin_v/d_Tuin 211
280 Strategos111 202
281 paul 186
282 tyler 186
283 Zaphod 165
284 stemnews2 155
285 Jerry_Mitchell 151
286 kevinperrott 135
287 kb2001 114
288 Mark 48
289 Co3us 45
290 David_John_Thompson 44
291 aholzer 42
292 Meow 41
293 Ibex 15
294 Pavel_Fatin 15
295 20floz 10
296 Dante 0
297 Yes 0

 Folding_Home_July1_12_AM_EDT.htm   163.57KB   146 downloads

[Matthias]

Please list yourself as a participant in the Registration thread, it is required to compete for the prizes.

Points begin accumulating towards the prize only when you have registered.

Is it necessary to register as a participant of the second quarter F@H prize competition
for those who were already registered participants of the first quarter?

[Matthias]

Is it necessary to register as a participant of the second quarter F@H prize competition
for those who were already registered participants of the first quarter?

...no it isn't:
http://www.imminst.o...&...st&p=248353

Edited by Matthias, 01 July 2008 - 11:19 PM.

[dnamechanic]

Welcome WadeW,

You are the 297th contributor to sign on with The Longevity Meme F@H team.

I did not see your username in the F@H Prize Registration Thread, please correct me if I missed it.

Registration is a requirement for Prize participation.

Thank you.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

Selected stats from Extreme Overclocking:

Team Rank - 166 (new record)
Current active contributors - 74
Points per Day (Avg. ppd) - 66,865 (new high)

Other F@H related topics at the Longevity Meme Team Forum

[dnamechanic]

Welcome Goryachev,

You are the 298th contributor to sign on with The Longevity Meme F@H team.

Thank you.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

Selected stats from Extreme Overclocking:

Team Rank - 166
Current active contributors - 74
Points per Day (Avg. ppd) - 66,551

Other F@H related topics at the Longevity Meme Team Forum

[dnamechanic]

Welcome Canaca,

You are the 299th contributor to sign on with The Longevity Meme F@H team.

I did not see your username in the F@H Prize Registration Thread, please correct me if I missed it.

Registration is a requirement for Prize participation.

Thank you.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

Selected stats from Extreme Overclocking:

Team Rank - 166
Current active contributors - 75
Points per Day (Avg. ppd) - 68,744 (new high)

Other F@H related topics at the Longevity Meme Team Forum

[dnamechanic]

Welcome HYP86,

You are the 300th contributor to sign on with The Longevity Meme F@H team.

Thank you.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

Selected stats from Extreme Overclocking:

Team Rank - 166
Current active contributors - 74
Points per Day (Avg. ppd) - 69,807 (new high)

Other F@H related topics at the Longevity Meme Team Forum

[dnamechanic]

Welcome kuba,

You are the 301st contributor to sign on with The Longevity Meme F@H team.

I did not see your username in the F@H Prize Registration Thread, please correct me if I missed it.

Registration is a requirement for Prize participation.

Thank you.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

Selected stats from Extreme Overclocking:

Team Rank - 165 (new record)
Current active contributors - 76
Points per Day (Avg. ppd) - 72,529 (new high)

Other F@H related topics at the Longevity Meme Team Forum

[Matt]

Edit* already found my answer...

Edited by Matt, 04 July 2008 - 03:23 PM.

[dnamechanic]

Welcome Howard_Druan,

You are the 302nd contributor to sign on with The Longevity Meme F@H team.

Thank you.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

Selected stats from Extreme Overclocking:

Team Rank - 165
Current active contributors - 77
Points per Day (Avg. ppd) - 74,957 (new high)

Other F@H related topics at the Longevity Meme Team Forum

[dnamechanic]

The Longevity Meme Team members are cranking up!

It seems as all active contributors are pushing the PPD for the team.

SETI146 is an excellent example. Within the past week SETI146 has upped output to 6,400 PPD, so far today.

Based on the value of some of the completed work units (479 points):

SETI146 has fired-up a GPU cruncher

Thanks, SETI146.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

Selected stats from Extreme Overclocking:

Team Rank - 165
Current active contributors - 77
Points per Day (Avg. ppd) - 76,506 (new high)

Other F@H related topics at the Longevity Meme Team Forum

[dnamechanic]

Welcome sgtjoy,

You are the 303rd contributor to sign on with The Longevity Meme F@H team.

Thank you.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

Selected stats from Extreme Overclocking:

Team Rank - 167
Current active contributors - 78
Points per Day (Avg. ppd) - 76,988 (new high)

Other F@H related topics at the Longevity Meme Team Forum

[dnamechanic]

Welcome sandy,

You are the 304th contributor to sign on with The Longevity Meme F@H team.

I did not see your username in the F@H Prize Registration Thread, please correct me if I missed it.

Registration is a requirement for Prize participation.

Thank you.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

Selected stats from Extreme Overclocking:

Team Rank - 166
Current active contributors - 79
Points per Day (Avg. ppd) - 83,705 (new high)

Other F@H related topics at the Longevity Meme Team Forum

[dnamechanic]

Note: Images from EOC and Stanford

[Live Forever]

Note: Images from EOC and Stanford

[dnamechanic]

Welcome Joshua_R._Youngberg,

You are the 305th contributor to sign on with The Longevity Meme F@H team.

I did not see your username in the F@H Prize Registration Thread, please correct me if I missed it.

Registration is a requirement for Prize participation.

Thank you.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

Selected stats from Extreme Overclocking:

Team Rank - 166
Current active contributors - 81
Points per Day (Avg. ppd) - 91,452 (new high)

Other F@H related topics at the Longevity Meme Team Forum

[dnamechanic]

Welcome tom.mensch,

You are the 306th contributor to sign on with The Longevity Meme F@H team.

I did not see your username in the F@H Prize Registration Thread, please correct me if I missed it.

Registration is a requirement for Prize participation.

Thank you.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

Selected stats from Extreme Overclocking:

Team Rank - 166
Current active contributors - 81
Points per Day (Avg. ppd) - 89,811

Other F@H related topics at the Longevity Meme Team Forum

[dnamechanic]

Welcome wgilpin,

You are the 307th contributor to sign on with The Longevity Meme F@H team.

I did not see your username in the F@H Prize Registration Thread, please correct me if I missed it.

Registration is a requirement for Prize participation.

Thank you.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

Selected stats from Extreme Overclocking:

Team Rank - 166
Current active contributors - 82
Points per Day (Avg. ppd) - 91,521 (new high)

Other F@H related topics at the Longevity Meme Team Forum

[dnamechanic]

Welcome Athesto,

You are the 308th contributor to sign on with The Longevity Meme F@H team.

I did not see your username in the F@H Prize Registration Thread, please correct me if I missed it.

Registration is a requirement for Prize participation.

Thank you.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

Selected stats from Extreme Overclocking:

Team Rank - 165
Current active contributors - 81
Points per Day (Avg. ppd) - 98,118 (new high)

Other F@H related topics at the Longevity Meme Team Forum