20 replies to this topic

[Jon12345]

I know Ray Kurzweil talks about about escape velocity. He says that currently, for every year that goes by, we get an extra 3 months due to advances in bioscience, genetics etc. From this, he postulates that the pace is speeding up, so we will start to get 4 months extra, then 5 months and so on until we reach 1 year extra for every year that goes by.

 

Is there any evidence for this increase in longevity, rising in an exponential manner? By evidence, I mean were we getting like 2 months extra for each year that goes by, a few years ago and now that has increased to 3?

 

Thanks,

 

Jon

 

 

[John Schloendorn]

The increase is true, but I guess you have to be Kurzweil to interpret any amount of acceleration into the data.  These are about as linear as anything gets.  It does correlate with socioeconomic status, suggesting that most of it is due to some kind of intervention that rich people, but not poor people do.  There's plausibly a lifestyle component that may or may not run into diminishing returns.  I suppose we can't rule out actual improvements in medical care. 

 

 

[niner]

 It does correlate with socioeconomic status, suggesting that most of it is due to some kind of intervention that rich people, but not poor people do.  There's plausibly a lifestyle component that may or may not run into diminishing returns.  I suppose we can't rule out actual improvements in medical care.

 

Smoking in the US used to be much more common and spread throughout the income range.  Today, it is heavily concentrated among lower income groups.  That probably explains most of the difference.

[A941]

How does it look like in Europe and other parts of the developed world?

The US has that "universal healthcare-problem" if I may call it that way, canada and europe not so much.

[Danail Bulgaria]

The lower income groups for the fact itself, that have lower incomes are not cappable of receiving the same medical care as the people from the high - income group. This may be a reason for the differences.

[corb]

 

Is there any evidence for this increase in longevity, rising in an exponential manner?

 

You can't apply Moore's law to medicine.

 

A group of scientists can take 30 years to understand a biological process which could or could not prove helpful for creating treatments.
Another group could stumble upon a breakthrough by pure chance while working on a side project. In my knowledge this is closer to what's actually happening in the medical field than the smooth graph of escape velocity.

 

The other thing is - the medical industry likes making drugs which slow down degenerative disease, making actual cures will take them out of business. So that's 80% off the research potential not being used properly right there. Until they find other venues for monetizing.

I'm skeptical about escape velocity from a sociological standpoint, it's not just the science that's a factor in this, something people like to overlook.

Edited by corb, 24 June 2014 - 09:25 AM.

[corb]

So this got me interested and I checked around and it seems like Kurzweil took the data for life expectancy in France.

 

And yeah going by this graph you get 3 months for every year.

It doesn't pan out world wide though. In fact, it doesn't pan out even if we only consider first world countries.

Which makes me think it's not that much based on medical facilities and technology as much as on other factors.

Also the graph is pretty linear.

 

True for the 3rd world as well:

[serp777]

I think that there is no escape velocity, but rather an asymptote when some technology, such as stem cell mastery, is developed and will allow people to live indefinitely from that point on. 

 

 

[Danail Bulgaria]

Lets hope that you are right about the asymptote

 

Lets hope, that it will reach the indefinate living will become true in our lives

 

For now, the certain thing is that the average life span and the average life expectancy of the human is rising all over the world with the time. The main factors for that are the development of the medicine and the decrease of the child mortality. The development of the medicine allows us to live longer, and the decrease of the child mortality rises the average life span and the average life expectancy mathematically.

[corb]

There's also better nutrition, better understanding of health risks, less wars and violence, more secure and laid back jobs, etc. Medicine really only starts significantly affecting the statistic when it comes to people in their sixties and up. The fact there's more people reaching their sixties drives the statistic for the time being.

[Antonio2014]

Increase in life expectancy is still linear: http://ourworldindat...ife-expectancy/

 

Anyway, to reach and maintain escape velocity we don't need exponential increase. For example, if increase is a constant 2 years per year (a linear increase), that already surpasses escape velocity.

 

 

[HighDesertWizard]

Those of us closer to 80 than 60 can benefit from a BioHack while Escape Velocity remains low. A BioHack having a high probability of giving us an extra 5 to 20 years, enough time for a much higher Escape Velocity to unfold. I believe the best Biohack to provide those extra years is now easily understood, not necessarily expensive, and based on Settled Science...

 

I've been trying to develop a simple, graphic approach to presentation of the profound health benefits of that BioHack, namely, Conscious and Systematic Triggering of the Cholinergic Antiinflammatory Pathway to inhibit NF-kB.

 

Here's the link to the slide presentation.

 

I know of no better BioHack approaches to get those extra years that has Settled Science supporting it in Humans and for which the Mechanism is now relatively well understood.

 

Thoughts?

Edited by HighDesertWizard, 21 February 2015 - 07:11 PM.

[Antonio2014]

Those of us closer to 80 than 60 can benefit from a BioHack while Escape Velocity remains low.

 

Escape velocity is a constant.

 

 

I've been trying to develop a simple, graphic approach to presentation of the profound health benefits of that BioHack, namely, Conscious and Systematic Triggering of the Cholinergic Antiinflammatory Pathway to inhibit NF-kB.
 

 

 

Aging provoking damage is much broader than inflammation, and certainly than the pathway regulated by NF-kB. And the benefits of simply reducing the pace of aging (instead of repairing the damage already present) will be modest.

Edited by Antonio2014, 21 February 2015 - 11:45 PM.

[HighDesertWizard]

 

Those of us closer to 80 than 60 can benefit from a BioHack while Escape Velocity remains low.

 

Escape velocity is a constant.

 

 

I've been trying to develop a simple, graphic approach to presentation of the profound health benefits of that BioHack, namely, Conscious and Systematic Triggering of the Cholinergic Antiinflammatory Pathway to inhibit NF-kB.
 

 

 

Aging provoking damage is much broader than inflammation, and certainly than the pathway regulated by NF-kB. And the benefits of simply reducing the pace of aging (instead of repairing the damage already present) will be modest.

 

 

Yes. Escape Velocity is a constant. I got distracted, misspoke, and hit enter without a final edit..

 

With regard to your second point... Sure... A broader and longer lasting approach to Longevity requires more than the content of what I presented. But the Slides I linked to reference solid Settled Science in Humans and could buy a person 5 to 20 years...

 

If you know of some other specific approach to adding 5 to 20 years based on Settled Science about Humans, please tell us about it..

Edited by HighDesertWizard, 22 February 2015 - 12:29 AM.

[Antonio2014]

I don't see any settled science in humans there (nor Settled Science in Humans), I only see a study of a therapy in mice. They show no therapy results in humans, only some correlation between HRV and centenarians. That doesn't mean that the inhibitor will extend life in humans by 5-20 years and it doesn't mean that these centenarians are near escape velocity at all.

Edited by Antonio2014, 22 February 2015 - 09:17 PM.

[Jon12345]

I believe Kurzweil's reference to Escape Velocity increasing is due to the increasing number of breakthroughs coming our way, such as stem cell therapy, genetics, 3D printing of organs, AI and then eventually nanotechnology. The difference between medical science before and now, is that it is an information science. The speed of processing power of computers is one of the determining factors in how fast you can analyse the data. Moores law with doubling of computer speed every 12-18 months will lead to an ever accelerating pace of medical discovery, which will impact on life extension.

[Antonio2014]

I doubt Kurzweil said that. Escape velocity doesn't increase, it's the velocity of rejuvenation therapies what can increase.

[Jon12345]

What I mean is that is there some evidence that instead of getting an extra 3 months life expectancy for every year that goes by, is that edging up to 4 months etc. I'm wondering if there is any tangible effects of these new technologies having an impact yet. Maybe its too early, because some of these technologies are not for end of life scenarios and so will take years before their effects filter through to the stats.

[Antonio2014]

Actually, there are signs of a slight deceleration. For example, the number of centenarians has increased slower than expected:

[Jon12345]

We are talking about two different things. I am asking about life expectancy, not lifespan.

[proileri]

On a side note, a minor factor might be that longer healthy lifespans can also increase 'brain capital', in form of educated people having longer active careers - including participation after official retirement. With interest in longevity research growing, this might slightly accelerate the returns.     

 

I also agree that there might be a significant 'application lag' when it comes to new discoveries and technologies - especially when it comes to retirement homes or supportive services, which probably are not the fastest institutions when it comes to adopting new methods. 

Edited by proileri, 24 February 2015 - 06:00 PM.