219 replies to this topic

[mag1]

Mainstream Media appears to have finally capitulated on the Nature Nurture question related to IQ.

Here ya Here ya, Read all about it, A new Human Supergenius Species has Arrived!, Read all about it!

 

The arrival of Superbabies is now on news stands world wide!

How could it be otherwise?

We are now barely 100 days to the Genetic Singularity Event; there simply was no choice.

 

They fought the good fight for as long as they could, but here we are and right ahead of us is a tsunami of

extreme IQ babies ready to profoundly change humanity. The research was published in Nature Genetics in July of

this year, so it will only be a few more months until we see what the first wave of IQ enhancement has achieved.

Extreme assortative mating selection combined with embryo selection which is then amplified across

generations = profound IQ uplift.

 

There is simply no precedent for this in human history. There is no nation with anything close to a full standard deviation

of IQ advantage over Greenwich mean. The IQ uplift on the table now is much larger than 1 SD. Current anthropological

research suggests that 1 single IQ point uplift typically required a millennium. IQ Uplift of 100 or more points within ten years

should no longer be dismissed as unachievable. Anyone who shrugged their shoulders at the idea of even a 15 point IQ Uplift

would simply lose all credibility! 15 point IQ uplift might have required 100,000 years with pre-genetic engineering technology!

The difference between humans now are tiny compared with the uplift that is approaching.

 

Anyone aware of the scientific method will realize that even a fairly modest increase in the IQ of these children should

send signals of concern if not panic throughout our society. Science is about systematizing, organizing, and optimizing.

The potential for truly overwhelming cognitive enhancement is no longer a question of if, merely when. My best guess is

that extreme IQ enhancement could be achieved within 2 generations or perhaps in as short as ten years. Clearly one

of the large risks involved here is that the consequences are almost completely unknown. Maximizing IQ could lead to

profound levels of autism. This has already occurred in the high tech community as assortative mating of those with high

IQ occurred lead to an autism epidemic. It is more than scary to think what could happen if high tech reproductive technology

were introduced in which the psychological consequences were completely unexplored.

 

Now that the story has saturated the media sphere, the entire debate about IQ and genetics can fade from the headlines.

The headlines for tomorrow that I anticipate is:

 

Extreme Fertility Collapse! 

 

Current genetic understanding of IQ and other human traits is quite limited. It could take some time (perhaps another ten years

for the research to be mature). However, parents to be would capture substantial incremental gains by delaying their fertility

until a greater depth of understanding was achieved. It is understood that near complete genetic understanding of IQ would occur at

a scale of perhaps a 5 million person GWAS. We are at 1 million now. A 5 million person GWAS could be done very rapidly, though if

we take the slow road it could take years.

 

It would seem wise to wait for this knowledge to be gained before bringing a life into this world.

This would be the rational choice that rational potential parents would make.

If this logic were in fact adopted, then a fertility collapse should be expected to occur: Now! Once this became evident, government

funding of GWAS research would almost certainly follow. We already have had a fertility collapse! Any additional decline

in fertility would quickly create panic in policy circles. "could take years" could then easily be edited to "Tomorrow soon enough?". We could enter a virtuous circle in which feedback accelerates the time frame

of the uplift.

 

We are of course nearly totally unprepared for what is about to happen. Yet, it should quickly become obvious that we will need

to restructure how our societies function. I will leave it to the readers of the thread to imagine what follies might arrive if children with

200 IQ were in some way mistreated. So, as first steps, global conflict needs to stop, along with substance use, genetic screening

needs to occur etc etc. I am not entirely sure what I can say to those who might feel that this will all just blow over, or the science will

take decades to develop. We all have seen what happens with exponential technology curves. Everything seems quite mellow now,

though how about in ten years? The only helpful guidance that I can think of for these people is: Run! 

 

 

 

Edited by mag1, 17 November 2018 - 11:02 PM.

[mag1]

Human CRISPer babies have already been born.

Extreme and imminent IQ uplift is now possible. 

 

https://www.technolo...-crispr-babies/

[Marconius]

Do not get to excited yet. From what I understand the scientist in question has edited one gene and is currently under investigation by the Chinese government which has guidelines against these things.  And intelligence when it comes to genetics seems to be linked with a lot of genes. So creating 200+IQ (compared with todays standards) might still be off for some time. Alto I do not rule out that China might want to keep any program to use this technique to edit fetuses to have more high intelligence genes a secret for as long as possible in order to create as much of an head start as possible. Something speculated about in this article on the Unz Review.

 

Also it is doubtful that the MSM has capitulated when it comes to the heritable part of intelligence. There might an article here and there about it. But there are many vested interests in keeping on pretending that is 100% nurture, or with only a negligible heritable part. Otherwise not only would it mean the end of decades of intervention programs based on the misconception that is mostly nurture. But more importantly it would undermine a fundamental part of Western political culture, since at least the French revolution, namely equalité. If the main stream would truly accept that intelligence is for a significant part hereditary it would result in a massive meta political shift, that quit frankly they do not desire.

 

Now in regards what such an eugentic revolution would mean for our society. Richard Lynn in his book about eugenics deals with the subject and potential solutions. Interesting enough in a scenario about what would happen if a country adopted measures to improve the overall hereditary part of their populations intelligence he picked China as the country to most likely be the country to first to it. 

Edited by Marconius, 03 December 2018 - 09:40 AM.

[mag1]

Marconius,

 

We are so blessed!

Our cups runneth over!

Quite simply there is a massive massive wave of love and prosperity approaching.

 

God's children will be among us.

Humanity will transcend.

 

It is a truly astonishing development.

If anyone can think of anything in the last few centuries that can top this please let me know;

I have not been able to.

 

My perception is that the simple, low tech and fairly inexpensive embryo selection approach 

was thought too great a threat of winning the race to IQ enhancement, so a last minute dash

to the finish line was forced onto CRISPR. What is especially exciting is now other competitors

are emerging as the stakes involved escalate. CRIPSRing gametes or possibly selecting chromosomes

are potential players.

 

There is a competitive frenzy underway to be the first to upgrade human cognition. Given the publication in Nature

Genetics in July of this year, enhanced IQ humans might start appearing as early as next April.

 

There are only a few obstructions to a clear liftoff. If we had another million plus GWAS and a large IQ GWAS from Asia, then

we could find almost all the variants and have a much clearer idea of what the causals were. 

 

This is truly remarkable.

Humanity is at the threshold of becoming something beyond itself. 

 

 

[mag1]

After all of my posts and after all of these years, why are we still on the launch pad?

I have been strapped into my rocket ship all ready for take off; and yet we remain grounded.

Why?

 

I desperately want to live in the future with the enormous benefits that increased intelligence will bring.

If this future means that my relative standing in the community were diminished, so be it.

Relatives are of less relevance to me than absolutes.

The future will offer an overwhelming abundance of wealth, health, and well-being. 

There will be a new era of living based upon lifelong learning and environmental sustainability.

Why do we continue to exhibit intelligence and behavior derived from our legacy Neanderthal genetics?

 

IQ uplift will, at first, be a glacial process. IQ upgrade will be based on the tempo of the human reproductive and development cycle and not on CPU clock speed.

There will be no download from Silicon Valley that will instantly transport us to our magnificent transhuman future.

 

No, instead of the rocket ship analogy, it would be more fitting to think about this as sitting in the backyard and watching the approach of

a comet. You could observe that comet day after day, month after month and year after year as it traveled through our solar system.

and predict its exact location for any point in time. All the while the actual orbital intersections might be entirely obscure until it were too late

to respond.

 

Cognitive upgrade is now inexorably approaching. There can be no doubt. The technology needed is primitive, relatively inexpensive and is widely

available in the community. The first round of enhancement likely will seem tranquil. However, as the process is optimized, magnified,

and organized tranquility will shift to a maelstrom: Positive feedback and then a near vertical trajectory to Cognitive Singularity.

 

This profound disruptive effect will be intensified for those who choose to reject cognitive upgrade.The current position of most of

the Western World that cognitive enhancement through genetic engineering should be banned is making such a highly disruptive event increasingly

likely. What is China to do? If they pursue this technology and disclose, then the world will criticize them for it. This would then encourage them to the much

more dangerous path of pursuing this without disclosure. Do we really want to wake up one morning to the news that a generation of Chinese had

a 10 point IQ upgrade? The reaction from world markets would be instantaneous and devastating: Non-uplift economies would be valued at pennies

on the dollar or less.

 

We need to avoid such a scenario.

We need to speak honestly about the approach of IQ enhancement and allow others to disclose transparently their activities.

We need to have the intellectual courage to accept the right of others to pursue their own agendas and agree to disagree, if necessary.

 

If some intend to proceed with genetically enhancing their populations, then those who fundamentally disagree with a world of more intelligent humans should

lodge their objection while respecting the rights of others to have contrary points of view. Genetic enhancement that occurs without this transparency will create

the worst possible result: A reasonable appraisal suggests that such a catastrophic Singularity Disruption object is on target for earth impact.

Edited by mag1, 11 February 2019 - 01:11 AM.

[QuestforLife]

After all of my posts and after all of these years, why are we still on the launch pad?

I have been strapped into my rocket ship all ready for take off; and yet we remain grounded.

Why?

 

I desperately want to live in the future with the enormous benefits that increased intelligence will bring.

If this future means that my relative standing in the community were diminished, so be it.

Relatives are of less relevance to me than absolutes.

The future will offer an overwhelming abundance of wealth, health, and well-being. 

There will be a new era of living based upon lifelong learning and environmental sustainability.

Why do we continue to exhibit intelligence and behavior derived from our legacy Neanderthal genetics?

 

IQ uplift will, at first, be a glacial process. IQ upgrade will be based on the tempo of the human reproductive and development cycle and not on CPU clock speed.

There will be no download from Silicon Valley that will instantly transport us to our magnificent transhuman future.

 

No, instead of the rocket ship analogy, it would be more fitting to think about this as sitting in the backyard and watching the approach of

a comet. You could observe that comet day after day, month after month and year after year as it traveled through our solar system.

and predict its exact location for any point in time. All the while the actual orbital intersections might be entirely obscure until it were too late

to respond.

 

Cognitive upgrade is now inexorably approaching. There can be no doubt. The technology needed is primitive, relatively inexpensive and is widely

available in the community. The first round of enhancement likely will seem tranquil. However, as the process is optimized, magnified,

and organized tranquility will shift to a maelstrom: Positive feedback and then a near vertical trajectory to Cognitive Singularity.

 

This profound disruptive effect will be intensified for those who choose to reject cognitive upgrade.The current position of most of

the Western World that cognitive enhancement through genetic engineering should be banned is making such a highly disruptive event increasingly

likely. What is China to do? If they pursue this technology and disclose, then the world will criticize them for it. This would then encourage them to the much

more dangerous path of pursuing this without disclosure. Do we really want to wake up one morning to the news that a generation of Chinese had

a 10 point IQ upgrade? The reaction from world markets would be instantaneous and devastating: Non-uplift economies would be valued at pennies

on the dollar or less.

 

We need to avoid such a scenario.

We need to speak honestly about the approach of IQ enhancement and allow others to disclose transparently their activities.

We need to have the intellectual courage to accept the right of others to pursue their own agendas and agree to disagree, if necessary.

 

If some intend to proceed with genetically enhancing their populations, then those who fundamentally disagree with a world of more intelligent humans should

lodge their objection while respecting the rights of others to have contrary points of view. Genetic enhancement that occurs without this transparency will create

the worst possible result: A reasonable appraisal suggests that such a catastrophic Singularity Disruption object is on target for earth impact.

 

A couple of problems with this. 

 

1. is IQ and good measure of intelligence? I think the answer is probably no.

2. Intelligence is clearly polygenic, i.e. influenced by hundreds of genes - epigenetically as well as via mutation. Increasing intelligence will require MASSIVE changes to the genome and epigenome, with many possible side effects in some people that will have to be unpicked, i.e. bipolar disorder, autism, etc. 

 

In my view genetic increases in intelligence will come eventually but in the short term they are likely to be outweighed by various drug treatments that temporarily increase concentration and memory, or meditation tools that increase calm or focus, and in the long term intelligence is likely going to be boosted primarily by machine interfaces aka neural webs adding better memory and speed to the efficiency of the parallel processing of the human brain.

 

Just my opinion, I do agree we are at the start of great changes in society due to technological advancement.

[mag1]

Thank you for replying QuestforLife!

There certainly needs to be a higher level of engagement with this topic, yet for some unexplained reason there has instead been a highly noticeable silence.

 

I was all ready to imagine sitting in my backyard waiting for that comet to appear and let this thread drift for a few months, though I am glad that you got me back

here. I went through a mania phase with IQ uplift, however I have now reached a point close to ambivalence: 1000+ IQ and $10^^52 annual income? Bring it on!

The new era of IQ uplift begins this April.

 

With regards to your concerns, it should be noted that the breakthrough article in Nature Genetics last July did not actually use IQ testing. This GWAS

was concerned with educational attainment. They simply asked the participants how many years of education they had completed. What a brilliant workaround!

Of course, educational attainment and IQ are not synonymous, though they are at least moderately correlated.

 

Testing intelligence becomes such a quagmire: People become highly defensive when intelligence is explicitly tested for and then there are the endless arguments

about validity. Educational attainment skates around these problems, while still deeply probing psychometric ability. One could imagine a range of intelligence-like tests

based on composites of educational/occupational/personal outcomes. Posed in this way, many people might not even appreciate the psychometric implications.

 

Life is an intelligence test! In some sense life is a more valid intelligence test than even an administered intelligence test because it is what we wind up living and

experiencing. If life turns out better than predicted by the intelligence test, then we must say that the intelligence test was wrong (not the other way around).

 

Regarding the feasibility of IQ enhancement over the short term, it should be remembered that substantial differences already exist between siblings in the same family.

This difference can be on the order of 10-15 points. Thus, there can be no doubt that significant gains await us as we begin embryo selection for IQ. It is very well

understood that shifting intelligence on such a scale would profoundly affect humanity. Even single point changes in IQ have greatly changed human behavior in the past.

 

There is a very substantial amount of low hanging g fruit.

Everyone has the ability to pluck some of this g off the tree. Starting with the fairly basic technology of embryo selection, one could well imagine 10 IQ uplift.

 

One would then need to consider how this might be magnified by very thoughtful mate selection. Up till now, assortative mating has not lead to overly successful results.

As one would expect, mating blindly in hopes of optimizing a highly polygenic trait such as IQ confirms the adage love is blind. 

 

In addition, genomes of offspring could be organized in such a manner that regression to the mean would no longer be possible. For example, if a genome were selected such

that both strands of a chromosome would have high polygenic IQ, then it would no longer matter which of them were transmitted to a subsequent generation. A high PGS for that 

chromosome would then be a certainty. The entire genome could then be organized in such a way that all of the chromosomes likewise had homogenous high PGS. As these strategic

choices were made through generations, IQ enhancements would steadily accumulate. When the genomic network effect fed back upon itself, then the race to Cognitive Singularity

would be less a leisurely stroll and more an all out sprint to the finish line.

 

Given the above, the lack of discussion about this technology is surprising.

The enabling technology is already in the clinic!

A significant fraction of the genetic architecture of intelligence has already been reported.

 

Here is just another example of a technology exponential curve in which people are only vaguely aware of profound change until we move to the elbow of the curve and then there is a wave of disruption.  

 

 

 

Edited by mag1, 14 February 2019 - 02:27 AM.

[QuestforLife]

 

Life is an intelligence test! In some sense life is a more valid intelligence test than even an administered intelligence test because it is what we wind up living and

experiencing. If life turns out better than predicted by the intelligence test, then we must say that the intelligence test was wrong (not the other way around).

 

Exactly!

 

IQ tests are highly predictive at the bottom end, but that's about it.

 

Picking a successful (in life) partner would be a better way of selecting for more 'intelligent' offspring. Of course some people may be gifted but unlucky, but statically it's hard to beat selecting for those who have adapted well to a capitalist society.  

[mag1]

QuestforLife, thank you again for replying. This is the most important topic that we need to grapple with at present, though very few appear willing to engage in the dialogue.

I wish others on forum will enter the conversation on thread and help develop the intellectual framework that we need to manage the approaching Cognitive Singularity. None of my friends nor family want to talk with me about it anymore, so the thread is all I have left for cognitive enrichment! If anyone can suggest an even more important topic, please post it!

While I appreciate that there are many many more amusing diversions to indulge in, the potential for humanity over the short term to radically re-engineer cognitive ability clearly requires our consideration. Everything else imaginable now captivates people's attention -- except what is critically important. IQ uplift should be the central headline of every newspaper, every broadcast, every conversation.

For me, it already is (was).
For others, not so much (more truthfully, not at all).

IQ uplift will have an extremely disruptive influence on humanity.
Even still, people of conscience have an obligation to help manifest this Cognitive Singularity and this duty is enabled and enshrined under the First Amendment.
For what is evil other than a deficit of mind?

When I deeply probe the totality of human history and my complete life experience, I am often left wondering: What were (was) they (I) thinking about?
The profoundly disturbing and yet unavoidable rebuttal is that they (I) weren't (wasn't). Can people actually be that dumb? The discouraging answer is: Yes.

Even more alarmingly, not only can people be that dumb, but this dumbness is repeated in endless cascades forming kaleidoscopic vortices of idiocy
punctuating our journey through space-time. Eternal cycles of chaos without a glimmer of comprehension. Without an effort to correct this, it is not difficult

to predict that millions of years in the future such cascades and such vortices will continue to twirl with their incomprehensible, intoxicating ignorance. For

those of conscience, it is a moral imperative to stop the stupidity.

 

Stop the stupidity!

Stop the stupidity!

Stop the stupidity!
 

Regarding IQ tests, my guess would be that they should be predictive across the IQ spectrum based on the latest GWAS (July 2018 Nature Genetics) establishing
the highly polygenic nature of human IQ with actual SNPs. If human IQ is largely related to simply summing up tens of thousands of small effect SNPs, then IQ should
be best thought of as an unbroken continuum that psychometrically links all of humanity. The same SNP that increases the IQ of a genius by a hundredth of a point could also

increase the IQ by the same amount for anyone else. The elite position that they somehow exist beyond this characterization has not been demonstrated.

Psychometrics is the great leveler. Recreating findings of recent IQ/EA GWAS even by sampling from near the left tail of the distribution should be possible.

In terms of choosing a life partner based on success in life as a strategy for more "intelligent" children (as opposed to psychometric testing), it is important to consider what
it is that we mean by success. Our current definition of success is informed by existing psychometric standards. It should not be unexpected that as we move above average

IQs of 150, 170, 200, 250 ... that the definition will shift. In fact, it is hard to imagine that it wouldn't.

 

Some of humanity's greatest thinkers have had a near absence of interest in upward financial mobility. Is obsession with wealth accumulation merely symptomatic of current

psychometric norms? Is part of the resistance towards enhanced intelligence related to the concern that those of our high IQ future might simply not be interested in our

preoccupations? Will those of high intelligence subvert all that we have struggled so hard to create?

I find it highly unlikely that many in the approaching extreme intelligence world will have a job classified anything other than researcher. Life long learning will not be

something to be aspired to, but something that will universally true. We all know what success looks like when it is defined purely by intellectual ability, though how many of us

will be happy living with such a definition? I, for one, will be super happy! For others might I suggest that you update your library card and enroll in a night class? It's going to be

great! An eternity of school! 

Much of what happens in life (and what we call success) emerges from our bifurcated society conditioned by existing ability levels. Those with IQs below 110
need a range of services and those with IQs above 110 largely provide these services. A world with average IQ above 120 would remove this division. The intergroup
transfers and dependencies would then cease (along with economic and class structures).  One might guess that this more than all the other rhetoric about intelligence
enhancement is what is preventing the future from arriving.

What happens when we move beyond a world of the lowest common denominator, will a bifurcated society remain? Will there be any social or economic relevance attached
to having an IQ of 210 versus an IQ of 220? One would guess the answer would be no. The only reason why a similar difference is important today is that many are just at
the margin of getting by in an increasingly complex world. Psychometric relativism is only relevant when providing for one's family is at the limits of one's ability level.

 

The glaring political consequences of the psychometric status quo have made discussing such linkages nearly forbidden. Yet, now we have the tools to solve the problem.

Why is the answer also a forbidden topic? Why are those who have shown great passion in revealing the results of differences in IQ not been as willing to show a similar level of

passion in advocating for genetic enhancement that would remove these differences? The politics of this are transparently clear: We are looking at a future in which everyone will

have the cognitive ability to provide for themselves and their families and they will be expected to do so. Government will no longer have a role as the provider of last resort.

Shifting the bottom percent of IQ above 130 will not mean that society will feel obligated to provide for these unfortunates, but that society will no longer have unfortunates. Those with a strong conviction in upholding the meaning and intent of the Constitution have no choice but to support Cognitive upgrade. 

The large social challenge that now looms with Cognitive Singularity is: How will we live without stupidity? Stupidity is the sine qua non of most of the entire social structure and economy. Entire industries will disappear as we move towards a higher intelligence lifestyle: Entire groups of people will be displaced.Yes, it is even quite possible that a higher intelligence future will temporarily result in a large scale economic collapse. It is the very fact that humanity is starting from such an abysmally minimal cognitive ability level that embracing our wonderful future could have such paradoxical implications. Nonetheless, we are morally and constitutionally obligated to press forward into this new frontier of upgraded intelligence.

 

Edited by mag1, 18 February 2019 - 12:25 AM.

[mag1]

The thread has, as noted, droned on post after post about:

How will we cope with the Cognitive Singularity?

Will we hit 1500 IQ? etc etc

 

I think that we have not focused enough on the nitty gritties of the reported GWAS SNPs and contemplated what this research is revealing to us.

It's time to crunch some numbers!

 

Below is one of my first attempts. The SNPs below are from the July 2018, Nature Genetics article. Notice that all of these SNPs are from chromosome 3 near 50 Meg. What caught my attention was how many of these SNPs there were and how large some of the effect sizes are. In fact, rs182355396 has possibly the highest negative effect size (-0.0525) of any of the SNPs reported. Admittedly the frequency of 0.0084 suggests that few would see a lower IQ as a result, though a small fraction would. (The effect size is assumed to be measured in SD. So, carrying even one of these alleles would reduce IQ by almost 4/5 of a point. Given that over this 10 Meg stretch of DNA the recombination rate would likely be fairly low, one could certainly imagine that there are those in our community who could be substantially disadvantaged by a bad draw from the genetic deck. Not only would they have a bad draw for themselves, though their family over many many generations probably would as well.

 

This is an embarrassingly poor argument based on math, though for rhetorical purposes it can't be beat, so here goes. If you sum up all the absolute effect sizes below you wind up with 1.25 SD. Homogeneously, you are at 2.5 SD; nearly 40 IQ points. Of course, it is essentially impossible to imagine that someone could draw the short end of the stick so consistently and claim the full 40 point deficit, though it begins to be highly plausible that such shortchangings do occur to lesser extents. In fact, when assuming roughly 30,000 SNPs of relevance  for IQ in the genome, then 10 such SNPs should exist per million base pairs. Recombinations typically occur on the scale of tens of millions of base pairs. So, especially unlucky stretches of DNA are almost certain to occur especially in some populations. Now would probably be a very good time to start talking about the obligations our community has to those with such genetic handicaps and the resources that will be invested to help resolve these problems.

 

{ I also calculated the enhancement effect that would result if all the SNPs reported were optimized at a population scale taking into account the MAF. I summed 2*p^^2* size and 2pq*size over all the SNPs. My result was a 15 SD enhancement. This is quite large so I will double check it.} 

 

 

 

                                                                  MAF       Size                         P-Value

rs62260764      3    47990500    C    G    0.2559    -0.0132    0.0016    3.450E-16    0.00    5.831E-01    1,119,342
rs138096147    3    48179876    A    G    0.0323    0.0234    0.0042    1.950E-08    0.00    7.120E-01    1,021,830
rs140711597    3    48469441    C    G    0.9818    0.0366    0.0055    2.230E-11    0.00    5.756E-01    1,039,728
rs6442126        3    48525955    A    T    0.6593    -0.0121    0.0015    4.720E-16    3.80    3.906E-01    1,113,793
rs191903670    3    48578053    A    T    0.9836    0.0335    0.0061    4.080E-08    0.00    7.313E-01    924,757
rs3895736        3    48658467    A    C    0.1728    0.0144    0.0019    9.920E-15    13.10    1.871E-01    1,117,647
rs73082325      3    48981024    C    G    0.9701    -0.0252    0.0044    1.240E-08    0.00    8.422E-01    977,180
rs72624911      3    49064576    T    C    0.0475    0.0282    0.0034    5.590E-17    12.70    2.210E-01    1,081,000
rs150252215    3    49296234    A    T    0.0437    0.0204    0.0035    3.820E-09    3.40    4.001E-01    1,107,736
rs116656374    3    49413266    T    G    0.0373    -0.0242    0.0038    2.950E-10    22.60    9.520E-02    1,048,615
rs9859556        3    49455986    T    G    0.3132    0.0290    0.0015    4.610E-82    10.20    2.409E-01    1,131,881
rs138484388    3    49511263    T    C    0.0224    -0.0306    0.0051    1.400E-09    24.10    1.322E-01    994,630
rs62262671      3    49649873    A    G    0.8634    0.0213    0.0020    2.220E-25    16.80    1.188E-01    1,131,881
rs77719387      3    49917021    A    T    0.0174    -0.0403    0.0058    3.780E-12    0.00    5.312E-01    965,119
rs111226181     3    49931760    T    G    0.1773    -0.0201    0.0018    1.350E-27    19.90    7.930E-02    1,119,342
rs2014830        3    50172397    T    C    0.3139    0.0110    0.0015    4.720E-13    9.80    2.521E-01    1,117,396
rs2526398        3    50187596    C    G    0.3468    -0.0222    0.0015    2.470E-51    17.90    1.061E-01    1,128,222
rs736471          3    50519392    T    C    0.4653    0.0083    0.0014    4.690E-09    5.60    3.474E-01    1,113,988
rs11720093      3    50562042    T    C    0.0809    0.0150    0.0026    6.480E-09    5.80    3.429E-01    1,115,701
rs11716398      3    50699715    A    G    0.8663    0.0159    0.0021    1.890E-14    13.70    1.743E-01    1,117,629
rs182355396    3    50920457    A    C    0.0084    -0.0525    0.0084    3.670E-10    0.00    6.958E-01    952,069
rs150421637    3    51047621    A    G    0.0169    0.0349    0.0061    1.040E-08    20.20    2.450E-01    903,058
rs74453875      3    52046707    A    G    0.0392    0.0214    0.0037    6.480E-09    0.00    9.535E-01    1,090,152
rs2336721        3    53028375    T    C    0.3778    0.0095    0.0015    1.050E-10    0.00    9.157E-01    1,093,537
rs62252819      3    53440128    A    T    0.7522    -0.0094    0.0017    1.200E-08    0.00    6.030E-01    1,093,537
rs4687735        3    53684371    T    C    0.0475    -0.0200    0.0033    1.630E-09    2.00    4.314E-01    1,113,050
rs11130380      3    53758950    T    G    0.6135    0.0090    0.0014    4.170E-10    0.00    5.403E-01    1,130,168
rs6445633       3    54230638    A    C    0.3127    0.0088    0.0015    6.370E-09    0.00    5.562E-01    1,131,881
rs7625428       3    56570907    T    C    0.6036    0.0098    0.0014    1.070E-11    0.00    6.494E-01    1,129,448

Edited by mag1, 18 February 2019 - 01:12 AM.

[SteampunkScientist]

Anyone on the forum actually doing any CRISPR work with kits or home-brew laboratories? I see a lot of kits available online so just wondering. Perhaps another thread where individuals could post pics/data about their work?

 

That being said, we do face an interesting few years of philosophical conjecture.  One problem is the stigma associated with the word "Eugenics" - which basically is just another term for "Self directed Evolution" and it is happening - but we have to call it by new politically correct names. Whatever it is called, there will be people doing this work - I would rather it be in the open, than in some secretive military lab somewhere - where the discoveries and knowledge are kept out of the hands of the general populace.

 

The fact is, as soon as true "cognitive enhancement" is available, everyone will want it despite their various claims to the contrary, no-one will want to be left behind - that seems pretty obvious.

 

We need to be smart enough to seek justice, to avoid destructive wars, and to stop shitting all over our environment. That also seems pretty clear. We need to be smart enough and live long enough to make space travel just one more thing that all humans do (or can do if they wish).  Out evolution took so long that we really only have a billion years on this planet left even if we don't fuck it up first.

Edited by SteampunkScientist, 20 February 2019 - 02:09 PM.

[mag1]

SteampunkScientist, thank you for joining the conversation!

 

Yes, I have realized that I have left CRISPR mostly off the table.

My projection that we are possibly decades away from a true Cognitive Singularity Event was based on an embryo-selection technology implementation.

If we move this more to intense CRISPR, then that 15 IQ SDs (~ 100 IQ points) reduces from decades till tomorrow?

The last and seemingly significant final barrier to such a dramatic psychometric liftoff is actually finding the causal SNPs.

 

I realize that those on forum tend to want to be explorers of these new realms of CRISPR etc. and are not the types who merely want to hand over their credit cards as a consumer once everything has been ironed out. Yet, DIY CRISPR gives me chills. My inclination would be to leave it to the professionals.

 

Ironically and counter-intuitively, it is the same race that gave the word "eugenics" its negative connotations that is now trying to claim moral supremacy in how IQ uplift will occur. Since when has failure bestowed intellectual legitimacy? Asians have provably higher intellectual ability. Why are they being successfully goaded by others of lesser cognitive ability to maintain the status quo low intelligence world that we presently live in? Why are dumb and specious arguments winning out over rational and thoughtful ones? Apparently in Asian culture, eugenics is understood without ambiguity as a desirable characteristic.

 

Where is Western tolerance now in accepting divergent values? How will low intelligence help us to find solutions for the increasingly complex world that we are living in? If anything, my estimation is that for many their quality of life has been deteriorating. Workable solutions have not been forthcoming for them, while accumulating challenges have. People with higher cognitive ability could be of great help for them, especially if these people were genetically derived from these communities.

 

I am not entirely sure whether this is years and years away anymore. The Nature Genetics paper that was published last July had actually sat on the shelf for about a year after it had been presented in Oslo. It is entirely possible that it had been on the shelf for about another year before it had even made it to the pre-publication stage. I have been in alarm mode from when I first saw the preliminary SNP set from Oslo. My guess would be that cognitively enhanced humans are already amongst us. This will be a testable hypothesis. Once these children grow to old enough to exhibit their psychometric mind force, it will be all too apparent to everyone that a new era has begun. 

 

I completely agree about transparency. The idea that if we don't talk about difficult things, they just go away has proven time and time again to be a very misguided strategy. Introducing the global moratorium on gene editing at the Washington Summit merely moved us towards an opaque world. In fact, as has now become apparent banning gene editing might ultimately not be the of central importance. Of even greater short term relevance is genetic selection techniques that appear to be beyond the reasonable limits of a global moratorium. I simply have not been able to find a meaningfully engaged dialogue online that speaks to the numerous issues that are raised by the genetic enhancement of IQ. Agreeing to talk about how enhancement should unfold gives us at least some chance that we could control what is now approaching.

 

Should we for example, allow governments or others with financial resources to upgrade the IQ of Africa by say 100 points? It takes no great imagination to appreciate how dangerous this might. John von Neumann, who had one of the most extreme intellects of a human, helped created the nuclear bomb and then the thermonuclear bomb and was an avid proponent of a first nuclear strike against a then non-nuclear USSR.

 

Even more alarming was that he managed to infiltrate the CIA with his own cell with the purpose of achieving this objective. Clearly, it is important that intelligence enhancement is done with sensitivity and a great deal of intelligence. Bans and moratoria do not fulfill either of these requirements. It is essential that we use whatever time exists before the eugenica arrive to create an era of justice and benevolence, so that they can grow up in a world of love and not hate. 

 

Thank you emulating my We need structure. Yes, we do need all of these things and more, though it simply is not happening! We have known about global warming for decades and decades and if anything it is getting worse! When I actually sat down and educated myself about global warming I realized that the problem is even worse than is typically understood  ( I think I posted this to the Global Demographic collapse thread). The biosphere is already toast. Basically it boils down to crank up your air conditioner and admire animals at a zoo or on a DVD. We are not smart enough to manage the complexities of a global biosphere!

 

We have not been smart enough to avoid destructive wars! We have not been smart enough to seek justice! How many fails does it take?

 

Yes, I suppose tomorrow is another day.

You never can tell when late bloomers finally get the feel of things.

 

Well enough said then.

Let's just wait until humanity gets its act together.

Isn't free will a human right?

 

If humanity collectively wants to be stupid, then doesn't it have an inalienable right to live such a lifestyle?

No!

 

There is only so much destruction that any species with the intellectual potential equal to that of humanity can be allowed to commit before this can be viewed as willfully intentional. Not allowing humanity to be smarter while at the same time that we are collectively committing ecocide, definitively goes beyond the line of excusable foolishness.  

Edited by mag1, 21 February 2019 - 03:11 AM.

[SteampunkScientist]

"Yes, we do need all of these things and more, though it simply is not happening! We have known about global warming for decades and decades and if anything it is getting worse! When I actually sat down and educated myself about global warming I realized that the problem is even worse than is typically understood  ( I think I posted this to the Global Demographic collapse thread). The biosphere is already toast. Basically it boils down to crank up your air conditioner and admire animals at a zoo or on a DVD. We are not smart enough to manage the complexities of a global biosphere!"[/size]

This is why I am more optimistic about the possibility of the so called "AI Singularity" - as I see it, rather than create a new "Consciousness" what we are really going to do is extend our own in ways that will allow us to be smart enough to do these things - and hopefully, smart enough to see the absolute unreasonableness of many of the behaviors (war being a major one) that we currently engage in.

Edited by SteampunkScientist, 22 February 2019 - 03:26 PM.

[mag1]

A dialogue begins!

 

Upgrading our consciousness directly instead of intermediation through AI would seem essential to me. To illustrate this point, I have had books on my bookshelf for years and years that I have never read. Recently, I did get around to reading one and it has transformed my understanding of the world and how one might go about addressing some of our pressing problems. The point to underline here is that I could have an entire personal reference library (or even more pertinently an entire 1 TB hard drive of the accumulated knowledge of humanity), though for it to be of any use I have to open that book or click that link. The likely eternal fallacy of modernity is that providing the opportunity to access knowledge guarantees that it will be taken. Quite possibly the entire class structure of the Western World is predicated on the assumption that the one critically relevant insight that a person needs to improve their life circumstances or resolve a difficulty is locked away in some book or on some hard drive and will always be one nerve impulse too far.  

 

{On balance I would tend to expect that knowledge would win out over various forms of mental pornography, though one could certainly imagine a parallel universe in which a society entirely rejected enlightenment for endless entertainment. For me internet technology has had a transformative effect on my life. Before I had integrated internet technology into my life, intellectual engagement was quite limited. Trudging off to a library was a substantial barrier to access and often one might find a book that was decades out of date. Now, the internet (especially pubmed) has become the central focus of my existence. Adding cognitive enhancement on top of this would greatly escalate the unlocking of human potential.}   

 

It is becoming all too clear how devastating the mere advance of high-technology can be when it is not accompanied by cognitive upgrade of the overall populace. We are now creating an even more all-encompassing form of oppression in which people might have little or no access to creating economic value, while competing with ever more powerful forms of Cognizant Technology. Technofeudalism! People have been removed from any obvious means of sustaining their own survival, while at the same time wave after wave of technology is approaching that will entirely undermine their economic viability. Does anyone know how a tractor works?

 

Most ominously one needs to recognize that no one will be able to claim a long term victory for what is underway now, as everyone is on the same sinking ship! Uncoupling psychometric decline from demographic decline would be a productive first step towards propelling us back onto an upward trajectory. The longer technology is allowed to develop without an accompanying development of human cognitive ability, the more our economic and social structures will feel hollow, and the more people will disengage from the life of the community. IQ uplift presents us with the opportunity of creating a world in which everyone belonged and scarcity was overcome.

Edited by mag1, 23 February 2019 - 08:17 PM.

[SteampunkScientist]

 

 

Does anyone know how a tractor works?

That is an interesting question.  Lets examine it for a moment.

 

The answer of course is yes, or the tractor would not exist - we could ask does any "single" human understand how a modern computer controlled tractor works down to the last bit of code in the computer controller chips in the tractor? Probably not, but is that necessary knowledge? The fact is, everything about that tractor - how to fix it, how to rebuild it, how to extend its capabilities, etc... is on the internet. As we advance our internet connectivity, that knowledge will become more and more like simple "recall" - soon there will be no real difference between "recalling something we learned, and recalling something we need to know now, but that we never learned.

 

This is an interesting question because I have repaired plenty of items by first watching videos and reading associated data sheets all available on the internet as I am sure many here have done also.  What if, in a near future scenario, I could get that information "downloaded" into my mind almost directly?  What if I also got a "shot" of emotional confidence that I could "Tear that Tractor Engine Down in 2 hours" along with that knowledge?  Very much like Neo learning martial arts in Matrix. 

 

This is the practical application of AI towards human evolutionary development that I see.  The whole "General AI" becoming our masters bit, seems to me, not as likely as we ourselves becoming the AI - if you will.

 

Now, I realize that one of the answers to the Fermi Paradox is that societies that become complex enough to satisfy all needs, and create perfect environments in computers become silent as everyone basically goes into fantasy lands of endless sexual, and other forms of entertainment.  Will some take that route? Probably.  As Life extension becomes reality, how long until you get bored?  Well, boredom in a real sense is knowing something so well that even the act of "looking" at it seems like drudgery - sooooo, just have that memory removed, and now it seems novel again!  Somehow I don't see that all humans would want this comfortable cocoon of simulated reality, but some probably would - at least for awhile.

 

Novelty seems to be one of the things our evolutionary development thrives on to such an extent that it is literally built into our consciousness - so this question can really lead us to some interesting new questions about how we will think and act in the very near future: I believe our development of AI is just nature continuing the trend it has on this earth for the lat 3.5 billion years - we think "we" are doing it - but from the standpoint of the universe as a whole, we are just the current most complex chemical and biological "steps" in this particular corner of this universe of evolution towards...? Well, towards what... that is the ultimate question I guess.

 

 

Edited by SteampunkScientist, 25 February 2019 - 01:05 PM.

[mag1]

I continue to imagine myself chilling in my backyard.

 

I look up into the night sky and every once I perceive a Thud.

... And then another Thud.

No one around me seems to take any notice of these sounds.

 

All the while I notice something just beyond my sensory limits that appears to be approaching at great speed.

I am filled with a great sense of wonder at these sensations.

 

I am left with an undeniable apprehension that something of profound significance is in the process of development and that

our lives will forever be changed once it has matured. The sublime feeling that is induced motivates me to reach higher,

to be more -- to transcend. I feel this infinity of love and light entering our lives and I want to touch this love and

this light and merge with it.

Edited by mag1, 02 March 2019 - 08:14 PM.

[mag1]

My above post certainly worked for me. I believe that I was able to successfully reach for a more profound truth that words of prose alone are unable to communicate. I noticed while admiring my creation what appeared to be a virtual tour bus that stopped by to admire my verse. Hope everyone made it back to their bus in time, I realize that one needs to keep a tight schedule while a tourist.

 

I had not thought of my question about the tractor quite in that Milton Friedmanian way, SteampunkScientist. I presume that there are a fair number of people that likely would have highly

advanced technical competencies in tractor repair. I was thinking of it more in the limited sense of whether there is a reasonably common appreciation of tractor maintenance. My statement was in relation to the concern that people have been losing basic survival skills, while technology continues to compromise the market power of workers. It would be comforting to know that a release valve in the form of back to the land knowledge were present instead of a "see it on TV --> buy it in store" mentality when the technology storm makes landfall (especially considering the means of actually fulfilling payment for many likely would be difficult).

 

I continue to push back against the AI depiction of the future. Now this might be misconstrued as a challenge to green skinned people (unfairly, I might add, as Marconius, is clearly a fine specimen of the green skinned peoples and is putting in an admirable effort at styling and profiling), though I find it difficult to imagine that within the foreseeable future people will be allowed to have the cortical connections depicted in his avatar above. I know, I know I am sure all parents out there are hearing from their kids: "Ohhhhh, Mommmmmm! EVERYone has cortical implants nowadays! It's the newest thing!". For this one it would be best to listen to what the FDA has to say. Such a future might be a fair ways off.

 

As a rebuttal for the AI world of the future, there is the eternal and dreary psychometric projection. Specifically that psychometric intelligence (g) is largely immune to manipulation. While we might travel the vast dimensions of cyberspace and experience many wonders, when we surface for air we are probably not as different from our Neanderthal genetics as we might assume. Have we truly become superenhanced friends, fathers, and members of the community? In all the ways that truly matter, are we better people after all the technological innovation? Once we are outside of the matrix, are we able to use the power of the matrix for good within our own lives?

 

After carefully studying this question for over a century, the psychometric community has reached the conclusion that this is largely not possible. g is a highly inertial property of the mind.

The counter-examples that could be put forward of Asian miracles would be countered with evidence that these are not truly miracles at all but simply consequences of psychometric

predictions made decades ago.

 

Successes can be redefined as obeying the laws of psychometrics, while failures can also be explained as obeying these same laws. Yet the deterministic certitude will finally allow us to transform stubborn inertial into exponential momentum leading to an era of universal success and achievement becomes possible.  

 

With IQ uplift and more generally polygenic selection this future is already here! Why long for the day of AI sometime in the indefinite future when a world of enhanced intelligence and

reduced potential for morbidity has arrived? This is a world in which the ideals of the founders of the Constitution become real. The democratic freedoms that they imagined can only be realized when genetic equilibrium is established. An interim period of extreme genetic disequilibria should not be unexpected.  

Edited by mag1, 04 March 2019 - 03:07 AM.

[mag1]

A new era of human existence has begun!

It is now 38 weeks after the publication of the GWAS article in Nature Genetics that revealed many hundreds of SNPs related to human educational attainment (correlated to IQ).

A new generation of genetically enhanced humans now might begin to be born.

Welcome eugenica!

 

 

It should be obvious to all that increasing human IQ will have a truly profound effect on human civilization.

We are entering a time in which extraordinary change is almost certain to occur.

 

Human psychometric potential in most developed nations likely maxed out in the 1990s, began declining in the early 2000s, and continued declining to the present.

At any other time in history this decline, driven by nearly immutable demographic factors, would have likely been maintained perhaps for a century or more.

Declines once begun have never quit.

 

We would all have had a front seat view of a social catastrophe unfolding before our very eyes.

Year by year, decade by decade an unstoppable collapse of everything that has been accomplished over the last many centuries through the hard work of generations of humans

could have been wrenched away from us. It is no longer difficult for those without any particular psychometric expertise to feel this fading of g in our communities. Life is clearly

deteriorating and has been for quite some time. This is self-apparently obvious. Problems that even recently would have been easily solved appear to be beyond our grasp.

 

Such declines have happened many times in the past.

At no time has it been possible to reverse such declines once they have become truly entrenched.

Demographic forces become intertwined with psychometric forces which then become locked into socio-economic forces which then slowly erode civilization until near complete social collapse is inevitable. While the extreme population growth of the 19th and 20th Centuries provided us a nearly continuous wave of psychometric prosperity, many developed nations began experiencing fertility declines in the 1970s that are still present. Ordinarily these demographic trends would have lead to a certain psychometric collapse of human potential.

 

What type of future would this to be to leave for the next generation?

 

Yet, what is so fascinating here is that this time actually things can be turn out differently.

If we can simply control psychometric potential through genetic engineering, then demography no longer is the leading motor of our progress.

A billion people might now yield 100 million possible knowledge workers with the current Bell Curve, though with genetic engineering why might a billion people not yield

200 million or 300 million or more? Population size no longer needs to be a strict limiting factor. 

 

Parents-to-be who want a life for their children other than one of endless social decline can bring us to this new world of universal prosperity by genetically enhancing these children. 

 

Edited by mag1, 18 April 2019 - 01:15 AM.

[Kalliste]

Its been 3 years now, soon 4, I have not seen anything Singularitysh about this so far. 

[mag1]

Kalliste, nothing has changed; everything has changed.

 

The polygenic nature of human experience has been all too clearly revealed: All humans possess the genetic potential for genius, extreme levels of mental well-being, memory etc. Everyone's genome has vast riches that can be organized, optimized. The variants responsible for various human traits are mostly common variants. Therefore, we are not talking about any one group in particular that will benefit from this research: Everyone will benefit.

 

We are right at the moment in which a new species is being born.

However, given this is a biological singularity event, it will be all done in slow motion.

Even if a generation is being born with the GWAS information from the Nature Genetics article of last July and has a 10 IQ point enhancement, this might not become obvious for 5 years or perhaps longer.

 

This is fascinating!

We will live lives of science fiction.

 

For me the surest sign that something singularityish is happening is the near total lack of engagement on this topic by media.

There is a near silence. 

We have all seen exponential curves before: It always seems so manageable when it begins and then not soon afterwards we are far far behind.

 

Adding 10 or more IQ points to every next generation will create a tidal wave of change.

Edited by mag1, 28 April 2019 - 09:19 PM.

[mag1]

Kalliste, reminded me that this thread has been ongoing now for 4 years!!

 

Happy Anniversary Everyone!

 

I know what you are all chanting: 4 more years! 4 more years!

When the people call, I can assure you mag1 will be there for the people.

 

4 more years!

4 more years!

Thread Celebration Party Begins now!

 

 

It has been an extraordinary 4 years for our thread.

I did not accurately predict that we would be where we are now, though it is truly wondrous that we have now arrived in the Promised Land.

 

While CRISPR might have been somewhat of a wrong turn, embryo selection technology will radically reshape life in the 21st Century.

It is possible that CRISPR might be derailed by regulation, though embryo selection is so widespread and so cheap that there does not

appear to be much that can stop it. Everyone will benefit from this.

 

 

The human genome has finally started to be revealed to us.

Due to the extremely polygenic nature of many traits, it is now only a question of time until we start seeing profoundly extreme phenotypes.

I would never have predicted 4 years ago that we would already have reached a point in which human IQ could be meaningfully selected for.

However, last July in Nature Genetics a significant amount of the genetics of Educational Attainment was disclosed.

 

This is simply startling.

A 10 point IQ enhancement is roughly in range now for the next generation. 10 point enhancement would change technological by an order of magnitude.

Buckle up!

 

There are a wide range of other traits that are also unlocking.

I am still uncertain about the genetics of my family's Alzheimer's, however, the online tools continue to make unraveling this mystery more and more plausible.

It is truly remarkable to realize that within one generation most, if not all, of the pathology embedded in the genome of humanity will largely be edited away.

The genetic revolution that is finally starting will go far beyond IQ uplift and will include a wide range of other possible trait enhancements.

Who knows some people might want to maximize their mental well-being or empathy.

The world of the future could be one in which there are various extreme lifestyles based on polygenic selection.

The thread has been highly focused on extreme IQ, though I suppose that others might have other preoccupations.

Basically everyone could be special in their own way.

 

This will be a welcome contrast to the world that we inhabit today.

Look around your community. How does it make you feel? Bad? How can that be a surprise?

Our communities have been genetically designed on the basis of a roll of a dice.

What happens when we can choose our communities on the basis of genetic engineering?

I know that as soon as I have the chance to select against dementia I will and I will alert all the others with my genotype of its risks.

Multiply this by ten billion fold and you have the future of humanity.

 

It is astonishing!

Life will be enormously easier for everyone without the looming threat of various pathologies.

Clearly the political spectrum will need to shift to the right-- possibly to a nearly pure form of liberationism. 

 

I can hardly wait to see how this all unfolds.

The last 4 years have the start of wave.

What about the next 4?

The Cognitive Singularity is nigh. 

[mag1]

Finally an article has been published that gives a precise estimate on what is currently possible with genetic enhancement of IQ.

I have been looking forward to such a paper for quite some time. It is such an extremely important subject that it is hard to

believe that similar research has not already been published. It is, after all, a window to our future. Genetically engineering

humanity will have truly profound consequences. This is exponentially more true now that we understand that human traits are typically

highly polygenic. Highly polygenic traits imply that very extreme phenotypes (such as 1500 IQ) are at the very least theoretically possible. 

Nevertheless, ~300 IQ should be recognized as a more realistic long term target.

 

After all these somewhat flamboyant claims about IQ that I have made on the thread, we finally have an expert assessment with 5 significant figure accuracy.

Bottom line the article reports perhaps a 3 IQ point gain with 10 to 1 embryo selection and a predictor based on 4.3% variance explained.

Increasing the predictor's explained variance to 16% increases the gain to 6 IQ points; then changing the embryo selection pressure to 50

increases the gain to 8 IQ points. I am not certain where the additive variance for IQ tops out, though I believe it might be 25%. 

 

https://www.biorxiv....626846.full.pdf

 

The article mentions that the largest GWAS to date of intelligence with 300,000 people had an r2ps of roughly 5%. Height which has a similar

polygenic architecture to IQ with a great deal less angry argumentation associated with its genetics has an r2ps of 25%. {The article focuses in on

an embryo selection intensity of 10 to 1.} It also reports that increasing sample sizes in GWAS will increase r2ps.For example, the recent

1.1 million person Educational Attainment GWAS (EA correlates 0.70 with IQ) increased variance explained from 3.2% to 11%.  

 

Formula: E[gain] = k sz rps (logn)^^1/2    is the expected gain in a trait,

 

where n is the number of embryos,

          sz is the phenotypic standard deviation and

          rps is the square root of the proportion of the variance explained by the polygenci score.

          {I added in the k to get rid of the proportion sign.}

 

Thus, we can see that at log 10, that is 10 embryo intensity selection, the log term conveniently disappears.

If some parents wanted to be heroic and increase the embryo count to 50, this would multiply the gain by a factor of 1.3.

As a guide with height, going from explained variance of ~25% to 80% (maximal heritability of the trait), expected gain increases from 3 cm to 5,5 cm.

 

The paper notes that more than half of the variation in human cognitive ability derives from rare variants not included in current GWAS.

Causal rare SNPs (.1% frequency) should be easily found in GWAS without all the difficulty that common variants pose related to

determining causality. CRISPRing in these causal SNPs likely with highish effect sizes would be expected to have a large enhancement effect.

Over 50% of the variation in human cognitive ability would amount to possibly 750 IQ points of potential enhancement. The article was entirely

silent on this implication. 

 

No mention was also made of the ability to genetically select the environment of one's children. Recent research has found that the genetics of parents, siblings,

grandparents, friends, and the broader community can all influence one's cognitive development. The genes that parents do not pass on to their children

contribute substantially to their child's development. Yet, with embryo fertilization one has the ability to select which genes are and which genes are not inherited.

With such control parents could incorporate the below research in order to maximize the life chances of their children.

https://science.scie...9/6374/424.full

 

Additionally there is the question of organizing the human genome of offspring in order that regression to the mean could never occur.

If a multi-generation breeding program were undertaken in which chromosomes were systemically organized and optimized perhaps by 3-4 chromosomes per generation, then regression to the mean would eventually become impossible. With such organized genomes it would no longer matter which chromosome were inherited, high IQ offspring would always be the expected result. An eternal cognitive elite would be created.

 

Finally the question of intense mate selection was also not explored. What happens if 1 in a million mate selection intensity were attempted? How might this change the potential gain?

Optimizing mate selection in such a way has never been possible before. People made choices without any understanding of how polygenic inheritance could be rigged. What

size of gains might be realized if we start trying to rig the game?

 

I am glad that we finally have published research that provides some initial informed guidance on the potential of genetic enhancement (especially IQ enhancement).

My ongoing apprehension is that we are drifting ever closer to a Cognitive Singularity.

A potential 10 IQ point enhancement per generation should motivate readers of the thread to think profoundly about the future that is incubating.  

 

 

Edited by mag1, 09 May 2019 - 01:07 AM.

[mag1]

May? It's almost been half a year and I haven't posted about the approaching Cognitive Singularity?

I apologize to humanity for this indiscretion.

 

Click on the supplementary tables in the url below, select Supplementary Table 10: Candidates for causal SNPS.

These SNPs have a high probability (>90%) of being CAUSAL for IQ/EA. I had thought that unwinding the SNPs

that would cause IQ might be a nearly impossible struggle as they would all be locked in LD patterns that might

be undecipherable even at massive GWAS scale. Apparently this is not true. Causal also suggest to me that

this would apply to everyone (i.e., all human populations); not just the white European sample from Biobank on which

the article was mostly based.

 

Wow! ~30 IQ of cognitive enhancement was reported in the 2018 Nature Genetics article? This had completely 

escaped my attention. Happy Halloween everyone! It would be appreciated if this could be called back as

an April fool's day prank, though from what I can see this is no joke.

https://www.nature.c...18-0147-3#Sec34

 

So basically, if someone were to CRISPR these 127 SNPs, our entire civilization would collapse due to an extreme,

unstoppable wave of high cognitive ability? That is the last remaining barrier to a world of superintelligence that

might make our lives largely unlivable? CRISPR as in the technology that has already delivered human births?

And the same technology that has continued to improve nearly continuously? We are supposed to cross our fingers

and pray that 127 SNPs will remain undoable even over the next few years? The last rebuttal of the skeptical is:

"Well, no one has managed 127 gene edits on an embryo". Very reassuring.

 

This remarkable truth has somehow escaped widespread notice and perhaps more disturbingly not a hint of mass panic

has manifested? 30 points of IQ enhancement is already by any reasonable estimation beyond our coping ability; the hundreds

more IQ points that might be published in the not too distant will merely move us yet further into the zone of criticality?

 

For those who need to find a jar half full interpretation, I will note that any more cognitive variants can't move us any farther

up the creek because we are already as far up the creek as we can go. Roughly it can't get any worse than it is now, because

we have already reached the worst; everything will just go into the overflow. {That actually makes me feel quite a bit better,

I hope others find this helpful as well.}

 

Hmm, I think I'll reconsider my idea that it couldn't be worse: In fact, it probably could be. 100 IQ points immediate enhancement

would be worse. Counterintuitively, this could be interpreted as meaning that we need to begin cognitive enhancement even more

urgently, as waiting, discussing, contemplating, politicizing etc. etc. will only move us towards an even more 

difficult transition to a high intelligence world. Anyone want to even contemplate what it might be like to wait

until we are facing an immediate 100 IQ point uplift? While delaying and pretending that objective reality does not exist

might seem to be the safe and best strategy it really isn't: delusionality cannot realistically be expected to be a winning strategy;

we have already seen countless times how destructive the power of enforced delusions can be on human rights and welfare.

 

We are rapidly moving towards a future that truly will be a Cognitive Singularity. One day in the not too distant future life will just completely

shift and become almost unlivable. Perhaps this is how people want it to happen. Actual mature dialogue about cognitive enhancement has

largely not been possible, so we'll just have to let the future happen and then somehow respond to a fait accompli.

 

Published reports are suggesting that the global moratorium on gene editing will create an inertia which will result in

essentially a permanent ban emerging over the long haul. While such a ban would have a range of seemingly desirable

outcomes, the underlying problem that this will cause (namely, creating an ever escalating incentive to defect from the 

agreement) is not addressed. The existential threat to humanity of  30 IQ point enhancement is already substantial.

However, if we could at least cognitively uplift as new variants were reported, then we might have a reasonable chance

of an orderly transition. Not taking this route and choosing to go for an enhancement that would be vertical is beyond scary.

We are being positioned in such a way that cognitive enhancement would be so extremely disruptive to human society

that it might be delayed endlessly. There is a certain rationality to this strategy, however, the risk that is being taken

(i.e., no defection) is substantial.

 

This of course assumes that those intending on being parents would play along with such logic. Taking the risk that after

devoting a large amount of their scarce resources into raising healthy and happy children, that large scale of enhancement

might make their offspring entirely noncompetitive might be a risk that many will not want to take. A global moratorium on gene

editing likely could not withstand the resulting induced global moratorium on fertility.

 

It would be appreciated if easy solutions did exist. An effective global moratorium on gene editing would at least contain the potential

of a world that would be beyond our ability to control. However, the research has already crossed a line in which it is no longer clear

that such containment is still possible. 

 

One way through this dilemma that I have thought of is that perhaps we could excommunicate the super smart genetically enhanced

people. Basically those with 250 IQ or higher would be told to leave; leave earth if not our solar system. Earth will be reserved for dummies.

Everyone would be happy. Earthlings could continue blissfully along their current sociopolitical trajectory, and the super smart people

can do what the super smart people might find amusing. It is not the optimal solution to the problem, though it might be of use. Anyone with 

a better idea is free to post it to the thread for consideration.

 

A world in which the only dimension of identity that will have any significance (not race, not class, not gender, not anything else) is enhancement

no longer seems distant.

 

 

Edited by mag1, 03 November 2019 - 11:00 PM.

[mag1]

After reviewing some past comments, I realize that a few items need to be clarified.

One of the more notable confusions is my position on CRISPR; the thread is after all called [ Genetic Singularity Event: CRISPR gene editing ].

 

What is obviously confusing is that somewhere in the middle of the thread I pivoted to embryo selection as the way forward.

Given that embryo selection might only offer possibly an upper limit in the near term for ~10 IQ point enhancement versus CRISPR's ~30 (already identified SNPs,

possibly another ~100 IQ points in the nearish term (question remains of how to accomplish multiple edits)), one could justifiably ask:

Why was the thread so off-base?

 

Firstly, it had not been obvious that finding the causals would be doable within the near term. I had not realized that the July 2018 Nature Genetics

paper had actually included such variants. This paper disclosed ~250 IQ points, though only 30 of these points were causal variants (~10%).

When another 1000 IQ points are disclosed, then perhaps we will have another 100 IQ points of causals.

We would then be within range of CRISPRing up average human intelligence to 250 IQ.

The last hurdle would now seem to be multiple CRISPRing (This no longer appears to be an insurmountable barrier).

 

250 average IQ would certainly be a handful to manage.

With this much cognitive potential, our entire planet would go to Singularity very rapidly.

Possibly making such a rapid transition would allow us to outrun the very problems that high intelligence might create for us.

 

Secondly, embryo selection was an off-the-shelf technology that was ready for use for enhancement.

One concern, though, that has not been mentioned on the thread is that embryo selection will greatly reduce genetic diversity

in the community. If one has a SNP with positive effect, then this would be shared by thousands of one's extended family.

If widespread embryo selection occurred entire branches of one's family would select the same chromosomes

with the same enhancer variants, humanity might then be reduced through time to essentially a clone species

(with all the negative consequences resulting from lack of genetic diversity to follow).   

 

What this highlights for me is that banning or obstructing gene editing, while it might be thought to be a way of avoiding the profound

changes that humanity will need to undergo (and given the challenges that are ahead does seem to offer us a temporary reprieve),

will, nonetheless, create a range of other consequences; many of which remain entirely obscure to  me at this time.

Such moving of problems downstream (kicking the can down the road) has occurred before and we have seen how this results in a great number

of convolutions in order to try and cope with the ensuing distortions: instead of confronting problems  you merely defer engaging with them. A

fair number of downstream responses will probably follow from a moratorium on gene editing.

 

{It also highlights for me the near complete absence of human engagement in the ideas that might revolutionize the world. Time and time again

one can find instances in which humanity did not have the imagination to perceive even a single neuronal impulse beyond direct experience.

As a species this lack of cognitive ability is an enormous liability and is constantly exposing us to untold and indeed unknown risks.

Upgrading human intelligence would go a long way to reducing such risks.}  

 

 

In a previous post I suggested that if gene editing were banned, then rational people considering starting a family would need to reconsider whether 

it would be in their rational self-interest and more particularly in the best interests of their potential children to proceed to parenthood.

Currently, becoming a parent does not seem a rational choice.

We are now already within the event horizon of CRISPR.

Having a child now that might be at a 30 - 100+ IQ point disadvantage certainly cannot be imagined to be a logical option.

 

This leads to yet another confusion that has been noted on the thread; namely whether we are in fact contemplating a Singularity Event.

Indeed this was even very recently noted. Given the realization that 30 IQ points of enhancement have already been disclosed,

I think it is well within reason to speak in terms of singularity. Enhancing intelligence by 30 IQ points (or even ~150) would obviously have extremely  

large effects on humanity.

 

The position that the world scientific community has taken on gene editing can then clearly be seen as wise. While this thread has tried

to keep up with the latest developments, the potential for 30 IQ point enhancement had entirely escaped our attention. Banning gene editing

is the only reasonable position that grownups could take when confronting such an upgrade in IQ. Yet, it also clearly indicates how serious the

threat to humanity is. We have somehow stumbled unto possibly enhancing human intelligence far beyond that which we could reasonably

manage and this has apparently largely went unnoticed by mainstream society.

 

How are we possibly going to be able to transition through this?

The world faces a great number of problems which could be solved by high intelligence.

Anyone interested in a cure for cancer?

A cure for everything?

Considering the nature of this forum, Unlimited Lifespans?

A universal basic income of say, $1 billion per year?

Realistically all of these would be within reach if only we could enhance intelligence.

 

However, transitioning through such an upgrade to human cognition might be somewhat turbulent. 

For example, the entire class structure of our society would be displaced.

There would likely be some who would want to cling to whatever minimal relative advantages that they

might have instead of embracing a future of enormous prosperity.

 

 

 

Cognitive Singularity could occur at any time.

We need to be ready.

We need to accept reality and not engage in the magical thinking that our delusions can override what is.

While this is sobering and quite scary, it is reality and should be recognized as such.

 

Edited by mag1, 10 November 2019 - 08:29 PM.

[mag1]

Now that we are apparently on the brink of IQ uplift, the scariness of it is becoming all too apparent.

Even recently I had thought that large scale IQ uplift might be well past the horizon.

IQ uplift could begin at any time.

 

As has already been seen CRISPR technology is a viable gene editing tool for the human germ line;

until last year CRISPR felt as though it might be decades away. It wasn't.

It is important for us to prepare now for the potential that a large IQ uplift might happen soonish.

This however could be substantially dangerous for it would not be clear what risks might be involved (e.g. autism).

   

 

There are fewer remaining hurdles to overcome than I had realized.

 

From my present understanding, we need to seriously contemplate a large scale psychometric shock arising

from genetic enhancement of human intelligence.

 

30 IQ points of causal SNPs have been published.

CRISPR has already resulted in human births.

CRISPR is a widely deployed and inexpensive lab technology.

 

It is time to start worrying (A lot).

 

If CRISPR were to be deployed now with the published SNPs, then there is a risk for autistic spectrum disorder in the modified

embryos. Large GWAS need to be done to clarify the genetic architecture of the spectrum.

This risk is substantial because even now, Silicon Valley without genetic engineering technology, has experienced

an epidemic of autism. So even assortative mating of smart people with random recombination can result in profound spectrum behavior.

It will be important to clarify the genetic intersection of intelligence and autism. IQ enhancement is still likely doable though

it will need to be done cautiously and with careful science. The problem that has often occurred in the past is that

the science is not done, people make risky choices, poor outcomes emerge which then reinforce even more resistance.

Reasonable and responsible research that respected the rights of people to make their own life choices could help minimize

these poor outcomes.

 

 

With embryo selection, as I noted in my previous post, one could greatly reduce the genetic diversity in the community.

One could wind up with a clonal population. This would be problematic as genetic diversity is an important protection

for the survival of our species. One needs genetic diversity as life is complex and having a range of potential genotypes/

phenotypes available helps ensure that solutions can emerge. Even having low intelligence genotype in the community

is a type of solution for the global fertility that we are now facing. Those of higher intelligence have been demonstrating

lower fertility for the last few centuries. A lower intelligence population could help us to return to fertility balance.

However, if we were to cognitively enhance, then this form of genetic diversity might be lost. 

 

One other aspect of genetic diversity should be noted. If we were to move towards a more clonal population (by using embryo

selection), then one concern would be that longer stretches of DNA would be shared by mates. Reproduction would then

expose the offspring to greater risk of illnesses from homozygous recessives.

 

CRISPR, against my previous ruminations, would seem to be the preferable way forward for genetic engineering. It would

preserve most of our genetic diversity, while allowing for highly targeted edits. Yet, the global ban against gene editing might push

us towards the less desirable technology of selection. 

Edited by mag1, 11 November 2019 - 12:24 AM.

[mag1]

We continue to be drawn towards the Cognitive Singularity.

More GWAS -- more genetic findings -- more drifting to a life of extreme change.

 

The announcement over the last few months that $100 genome sequencing is now possible

essentially ensures that the genomic revolution is now about to accelerate.

The $100 price point is understood to be the time that mainstream society will back up the

forklift and clear the shelves.

 

Yeah, when toilet paper started becoming scarce around our way, we started hoarding tissues.

For about a month, there wasn't any available; I am glad that we paniced when we did.

When we see those $100 genomes, probably be the same reaction. Panic buying.

 

This will push us far far over the line. The rough calculation is that we need about 5 million full genomes

to truly unlock the human phenome. There are now tens of millions of gene chip files out there.

The market has developed for genomics; people understand the drill. Once people have their

genome files in hand, it is not difficult to imagine cloud services that would accept these files

to do massive scale GWAS.

 

This is very exciting! The entire human genome is about to unlock! An entire generation of children

could soon be born without any substantial risk for any genetic illness. It is quite startling. Look around

you. There is a substantial amount of genetic diversity (in particular in terms of various medical conditions,

also behavioral phenotypes etc.). Much of this diversity might no longer exist in the medium term especially

in modern industrialized nations. Obviously this might not be the best outcome for our communities and it will

probably make for a duller life, though it is not immediately clear why such uniformity will not emerge once 

the technology has arrived.

 

By all appearances life seems more or less normal aside from COVID, though any amount of

contemplation about what is likely occurring at street level suggests that an exponential wave

of cognitive enhancement is rapidly approaching us. As is always true in such circumstances,

we can pretend that nothing has changed until it is far too late. It is not entirely obvious whether

we will be able to cope with the 2.5 IQ point enhancement that is already on the table. Such an upgrade

would be similar to the difference in cognitive ability between Asian and European populations.

 

The genetic hypothesis will soon be tested and likely vindicated. It will be close to an ideal real world

experiment: What happens when genetic science is finally tested through real world application?

What happens when all of sudden a population shifts up 2,3,4,5, ... IQ points? The genetics of human 

behavior, intelligence ... has been passionately argued for at least over a century since the start of the modern 

psychometric age. Why argue? When those who have been genetically engineered begin to mature we will

all have a front row seat on what is possible. Over the last many centuries a good understanding has emerged

for what normal human development looks like. What happens when we start to see a very new pattern of such

development? What happens when people start becoming noticeably smarter? What happens when the argument

about differences of human intelligence is no longer theoretical but something that can be clearly seen by all?

 

 

This is going to be fascinating to watch unfold! We will be able to watch as the internal wheels and gears of the human mind are adjusted

and we will then see how life will unfold differently. It is not difficult to predict that with such a cognitive upgrade 

that we will live in safer, healthier and wealthier communities. The approaching wave of technological innovation

will also be very much appreciated.

 

One update that has changed my understanding of what is possible with genetic enhancement is the idea that

there are big effects that are out there. The conversation has largely been dominated by the polygenic perspective.

Human traits are formed from thousands and thousands of small effect variants.  Yet, there are human traits that

do have large effect variants. I had not been fully aware of such variants. When large scale full genome sequencing

arrives we might see IQ variants with large effects. Research to date has not found this to be true. However, it would

be a concern if a rare SNP were found that could increase human intelligence by perhaps 5 IQ points. CRISPRing in 

such a variant at population scale would profoundly affect human society. Could such IQ uplift even be manageable?

 

 

Edited by mag1, 20 September 2020 - 06:57 PM.

[mag1]

Generation of Primordial Germ Cell-like Cells on Small and Large Scales

https://pubmed.ncbi....h.gov/32944904/

 

This article caught my attention as I was recently browsing pubmed. I find the title especially somewhat terrifying. Is it now truly possible to create great big vats of primordial germ cell-like cells? So basically take a sperm and egg and then just grow as many clones as you like? Have we actually quietly crossed into an era of genetic control of germ cell engineering? The future will simply happen one day and there will be no headline, no protest; not even a yawn?

 

Just to be clear: selecting embryos (currently) gives a somewhat limited upgrade potential of 2.5 IQ points. Unlimited primordial germ cell generation might offer the opportunity to essentially make 

unlimited gene edits. One could potentially keep making gene edits for as long as one liked. With current genetic knowledge this might already give perhaps a 200 IQ point enhancement. 

Other genetic enhancements could likewise be made.

 

Given the above, it should now not be entirely dismissed that profound genetic enhancement could emerge over even the short term.  

Edited by mag1, 26 September 2020 - 12:22 AM.

[mag1]

Startling! Research below demonstrates how a SNP (rs10866912) related to the NAPRT1 gene

which has an allele frequency of ~0.70 in Indian populations can increase schizophrenia risk

by ~25%. A simple dietary intervention of niacin would prevent/reverse this problem in these

patients.

 

25% less schizophrenia? With a simple dietary intervention? With one SNP?

Life is clearly about to change.    

 

 

https://pubmed.ncbi....h.gov/31839551/

https://www.ncbi.nlm...les/PMC6613304/

[mag1]

I had thought that the official position would be to essentially shut out CRISPR human germ-line editing forever.

Gene-editing will end human civilization as we know (and love) it. 100 SD IQ anyone? Anyone think they could 

keep up with that? Somewhat counter-intuitive that now the grown-ups in charge want to get with the program. 

 

One thing that I have learned in life is that more often than not the level of debate that commonly occurs is

truly at a base minimum of rationality. All you ever need to do is speak nonsense and that is that. You win. Yeah!

However, the logic can be truly abysmal.

 

In the article below they mention how they don't want to introduce CRISPR germline editing because it would

create a permanent change in the human germ-line. What is notable is that the permanent germ-line mistakes

that have occurred in humans from the natural processes of DNA biology is what has caused the problem

that people want to have fixed. What was left unsaid is how typically resilient human DNA is to mutations.

 

It does not take much knowledge of DNA to realize that the human genome has millions and millions of 

variants that do little or anything. In our exome scan there are 50,000 variants! To the uninitiated, one

might be super-concerned about a missense error in a gene. Yet, our file must have thousands of missenses.

It is amazing how many variants there are. Even frameshifts and loss of function variants are not nearly as

rare as I might have guessed,. These are potentially very serious genetic errors, A frameshift basically destroys the

function of a protein.

 

In the article below they speak of wanting to avoid these mutations; I would tend to agree with this idea.

Yet, the people who want to do the gene editing want to fix genetic problems that are truly disabling.

That is what is motivating their behavior! The variants involved are probably in the 100,000 most damaging

genetic variants in the human genome. If you asked these people "OK, we can gene edit the embryo, but

we will basically have one random change inserted into the genome. Do you still want to go ahead? The answer

is basically, "YES!".The choice is either 50/50 when dealing with a dominant or 100,000 in 3 billion.(100 in a million).

It is a ridiculously weak argument!

 

Basically desperate parents are trying to give their offspring a better life and avoid a very large risk (~25%, 50%, 100%)

and the response is well 100 in a million is too much. The technology has already improved so much that I am not even sure

if we are not almost down to zero risk.  Being able to do full genome pre-screening would seem to almost eliminate the risk.

 

The implications of CRISPR for human society is truly shocking. We will have no crime, we will have no disease, we will have no

poverty. This is our future. The sooner we can get there the better. It is encouraging though that we do seem to be inching towards

this future. Very interesting that below url speaks of gene editing sperm and eggs. That would be quite exciting. Perhaps do

sequential CRISPRing of many snps. This has been achieved in mice.

 

https://www.sciencen...-new-guidelines

 

Here is the report. Skill testing question: $60 paperback or free download?

 

https://www.nap.edu/...-genome-editing

Edited by mag1, 14 October 2020 - 11:34 PM.

[mag1]

These figures have me amazed by how our near future might unfold. I am not entirely sure whether this is the proper

interpretation, though looking at the figures one can see that an illness such as schizophrenia might rapidly disappear

from our community. Does one really have the power with embryo selection to essentially choose where on the curve

your off-spring will be? It certainly does seem as this is what can happen as the schizophrenia risk for typical siblings is

several times lower than that of identical twins. Identical twins demonstrate what happens when you have a bad roll

of the genetic roulette wheel. Embryo selection gives us the potential for a world in which everyone (without regard

to their personal genetics) will be able to greatly load the dice in their children's favor. I am not sure whether even

strong selection would move everyone right down to ~1%, though clearly everyone will benefit.

 

We are entering an era of the potential in which disruptive social transformation could occur. No great technological

innovation will be required for this to happen. We should assume that such transformation is underway and prepare. 

 

 

 

 

 Risk of Schizophrenia.bmp   1.39MB   1 downloads

Attached Files

•  index 1.jpg   9.1KB   1 downloads

Edited by mag1, 02 November 2020 - 02:33 AM.